Norwegian gas to Denmark - market development and SoS

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1 Norwegian gas to Denmark - market development and SoS Søren Juel Hansen, Head of Infrastructure & Tariffs Oliver Vindex Nielsen, Project Manager 1

2 We still believe in what we said in the Winter 2009/10 when the Ellund-Egtved connection was challenged! 2

3 Where to focus increase, maintain or decrease? Current Energinet.dk solution: Egtved compressor + looping Maintain Sufficient for Denmark and Sweden Possible to expand Swedish capacity Possible to expand storages Increased D + PL transitpotential 3

4 Where to focus increase, maintain or decrease? Current Energinet.dk solution: Egtved compressor + looping Minimum solution: Egtved compressor? Maintain Decreasing the market Sufficient for Denmark and Sweden Possible to expand Swedish capacity Possible to expand storages Increased D + PL transit potential Swedish gas market to be cut Maybe insufficient for Denmark? Possible lack of gas storage capacity 4

5 Where to focus increase, maintain or decrease? Energinet.dk vision Egtved compressor + looping + North Sea connection Current Energinet.dk solution: Egtved compressor + looping Minimum solution: Egtved compressor? Integrating the NWE markets Maintain Decreasing the market Same opportunities as with current Energinet.dk solution + Increased load factors in N pipes + Optimise usage of North Sea cap. + Use looping for increased D transit Sufficient for Denmark and Sweden Possible to expand Swedish capacity Possible to expand storages Increased D + PL transit potential Swedish gas market to be cut Maybe insufficient for Denmark? Possible lack of gas storage capacity 5

6 Where to focus increase, maintain or decrease? EU BEMIP & Baltic Gas vision Egtved compressor + looping + North Sea connection + Baltic Pipe Energinet.dk vision Egtved compressor + looping + North Sea connection Current Energinet.dk solution: Egtved compressor + looping Minimum solution: Egtved compressor? Integrating the Baltic markets Integrating the NWE markets Maintain Decreasing the market Same opportunities as with current Energinet.dk solution + Increased load factors in N pipes + Optimise usage of North Sea cap. + Use looping for increased D transit + Use compressor for PL transit Same opportunities as with current Energinet.dk solution + Increased load factors in N pipes + Optimise usage of North Sea cap. + Use looping for increased D transit Sufficient for Denmark and Sweden Possible to expand Swedish capacity Possible to expand storages Increased D + PL transit potential Swedish gas market to be cut Maybe insufficient for Denmark? Possible lack of gas storage capacity 6

7 Where to focus increase, maintain or decrease? Another day EU BEMIP & Baltic Gas vision Egtved compressor + looping + North Sea connection + Baltic Pipe Focus of today Energinet.dk vision Egtved compressor + looping + North Sea connection Current Energinet.dk solution: Egtved compressor + looping Minimum solution: Hellevad compressor? Integrating the Baltic markets Integrating the NWE markets Maintain Decreasing the market Same opportunities as with current Energinet.dk solution + Increased load factors in N pipes + Optimise usage of North Sea cap. + Use looping for increased D transit + Use compressor for PL transit Same opportunities as with current Energinet.dk solution + Increased load factors in N pipes + Optimise usage of North Sea cap. + Use looping for increased D transit Sufficient for Denmark and Sweden Possible to expand Swedish capacity Possible to expand storages Increased D + PL transitpotential Swedish gas market to be cut Maybe insufficient for Denmark? Possible lack of gas storage capacity 7

8 Vision for an integrated N, NL, D, DK, S and PL gas market N X DK Egtved Chosen solution NL D S compression Cap. increase from 3 5 bcm/y PL 8

9 Vision for an integrated N, NL, D, DK, S and PL gas market N Increased load factors in existing Pipes? X Interconnections? 16 mio. m 3 /d Fields? B11 Storage? DK 13 mio. m 3 /d Egtved Chosen solution 26 mio. m 3 /d S compression Improved market access in existing Pipes? Europipe II Europipe I Supply diversity? Cap. increase from 3 5 bcm/y NL D PL 9

10 Possible drivers Norway Better possibilities for maximising value of exports and direct access to new markets Possibility to increase load factor on future exports Denmark Security of supply and market development Utilisation of existing North Sea Infrastructure and remaining fields Netherlands Security of supply and market development Utilisation of existing North Sea Infrastructure and remaining fields Germany Security of supply and NWE market development Poland and Baltic states Security of supply and supply diversification EU Security of Supply and market integration 10

11 Possible drivers Norway Better possibilities for maximising value of exports and direct access to new markets Possibility to increase load factor on future exports New volumes expected in 2016 Denmark Security of supply and market development Utilisation of existing North Sea Infrastructure and remaining fields Short term possible gains following from a tight market in the period from Sweden 30-50% growth within 1 year Netherlands Security of supply and market development Utilisation of existing North Sea Infrastructure and remaining fields Germany Security of supply and NWE market development Poland and Baltic states Security of supply and supply diversification EU Security of Supply and market integration 11

12 The DEA report: Expansion of the infrastructure for transport of natural gas in preparation for future import for Denmark - an analysis of the consequences for the Danish North sea Producers of a looping of the existing Ellund- Egtved gas pipline Summary and Conclusions Background Report 12

13 Danish Ministry recommendations for the North Sea DERA will perform a renewed evaluation of tariffs and conditions for TPA access to DONG Energy s upstream pipelines to Nybro DEA establishes general principles for TPA access to treatment and transport facilities in regard to the sub sea law ( undergrundsloven ) Background Tariffs for offshore facilities and pipelines impact the interest in: - a possible connection to Norwegian offshore infrastructure - exploiting marginal resources in existing Danish North Sea fields - developing new fields in the Danish North Sea 13

14 Danish Ministry recommendations for the North Sea Can be a need for establishing a connection for import of gas from Norway to secure the Danish and Swedish market and to develop the North European gas market, including the Baltic countries Look into and evaluate possible solutions for: - import of Norwegian gas - through existing Danish offshore infrastructure, or - directly to shore - using Danish depleting fields as gas storages 14

15 Sweden as an added business driver? 2008 Prognosis from the Swedish Energy Agency the prognosis turned right for 2010 Swedish market increased 30% from Swedish demand is now 1.3 bcm/y Sweden was dependant on interruptible supplies during the entire Winter 2009/2010 The Swedish Energy Agency expects further increase Swedish Gas prices are 140% of average EU-prices* *Eurostat, industrial consumers, avg

16 Possible process for a new N-NL-DK connection - and a possible related PL-DK connection EU + ENDK + Market players + ENS Looping decision Vision Meeting between potential stakeholders Identification of interested parties and possible projects Strat. environmental impact assessment Baltic Gas + Regional N-1 analysis Viability Project offering open analysis with interested season? parties Contracts Environmental approvals Engineering Realisation EU BEMIP plan + Regional N-1 plans

17 Possible process for a new N-NL-DK connection - and a possible related PL-DK connection EU + ENDK + Market players + ENS Looping decision Vision Initial dialogue Meeting between potential stakeholders Identification of interested parties and possible projects Strat. environmental impact assessment Baltic Gas + Regional N-1 analysis Commitment phase - possibly headed by Gassco? Viability Project offering open analysis with interested season? parties Contracts Environmental approvals Engineering Realisation EU BEMIP plan + Regional N-1 plans

18 EU + ENDK + Market players + ENS Possible process for a new N-NL-DK connection - and a possible related PL-DK connection Looping decision Vision Initial dialogue Meeting between potential stakeholders Identification of interested parties and possible projects Strat. environmental impact assessment Baltic Gas + Regional N-1 analysis Commitment phase - possibly headed by Gassco? Viability Project offering open analysis with interested season? parties Contracts Environmental approvals Engineering Realisation EU BEMIP plan + Regional N-1 plans

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