1 The DeltaCompetition: Creative ideas from students all over the world for the sustainable development of densely populated delta areas deltacompetition 2006
2 The DeltaCompetition: Creative ideas from students all over the world for the sustainable development of densely populated delta areas deltacompetition 2006
4 contents foreword 6 preface 7 9 panel of judges CVs Paper 1. Floating City IJmeer Accelerator for Delta Technology Author: R. de Graaf, M. Fremouw, B. van Bueren, K. Czapiewska, M. Kuijper Paper 2. Sustainable Growth in Urbanised Delta Areas The opportunities of a geographical approach to the Pearl River Delta Author: G. van Rens, A.L. Nelissen, C. Schamhart, N. Lugt Paper 3. All You Need is Space Long-term and large-scale sustainable development in deltaic areas Author: L.M. van der Burgh, M.B. Brommer Paper 4. The Flood House Concept A new approach in Reducing Flood Vulnerability Author: H. Vreugdenhil, L. Meijer, L. Hartnack, T. Rijcken Paper 5. A Hydrologic Flood Forecasting System for Mesoamerica Author: J.E. Villalobos, P.E. Rodriguez, P. Saksa
5 foreword deltas in the world Dear Reader, Half of the 6.5 billion people on our planet live in densely populated delta areas. These areas are the most dynamic and fragile areas we have. Many deltas contain fast growing and economically flourishing cities. These conglomerations desperately need space for work, living and recreation. But the delta also provides agricultural land, which we urgently need to feed all the hungry mouths. At the same time, the delta is threatened. Deltas are enormously sensitive to flooding and coastal erosion. The rising sea and river levels increase the risks to people and nature. During every hurricane season we see heartrending pictures of the full effects of flooding. The disaster in New Orleans also made the wealthy nations face the facts. No one can remain shielded from the effects of climate change and extremes of weather. I can safely say without exaggeration that the utmost will be demanded of mankind if we are to protect our fragile delta areas in the years to come. Existing plans for structuring and protecting deltas are no longer enough. New solutions are required. is a summary of the five best entries in the Royal Haskoning DeltaCompetition. Right from the outset, the sustainable development of delta areas has been a key theme in Royal Haskoning s work. Therefore, as part of our anniversary, we have initiated the DeltaCompetition in which we have challenged students from all over the world to come up with new, innovative and sustainable solutions for the threatened deltas. The DeltaCompetition has encouraged talented students to devise new ideas. In all papers that were submitted, the devotion to find a solution for the growing problems in the Deltas of the world is heart warming. This book brings together the five most promising ideas. From floating cities in the Netherlands to protection strategies for the Pearl River in China and hydrologic flood forecasting systems in Mesoamerica, but also long-term and largescale development in deltaic areas and a new approach in reducing flood vulnerability. The ideas stem from collaboration between different fields of expertise. From water managers and civil engineers to architects and aerospace engineers. The solutions presented in this book are all of a multidisciplinary nature, which we have in particularly encouraged. After all, the problems that are important in the delta are pre-eminently problems that transcend discipline boundaries and require solutions with contributions from several areas of expertise. I hope you enjoy reading this book and that the solutions outlined inspire you to work with us in the further development of creative and sustainable solutions to the threats facing our delta areas. Jan Bout, Chairman of the Board of Management Royal Haskoning
6 preface introduction The DeltaCompetition aimed to stimulate PhD, master s and bachelor s programme students from all over the world to develop innovative, sustainable solutions to the threats and issues facing densely populated delta areas because of climate change. In particular we were looking for new, inspiring and bold ideas and unexpected solutions to these issues and problems, trying to find a combination of ideas from different disciplines with surprising results that could contribute to the sustainable development of delta areas. The call for papers in January 2006 resulted in the registration of 33 teams from the UK, the Netherlands, Germany and the USA to Zimbabwe, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia and China. All over the world bachelor s, master s and PhD students formed multidisciplinary teams to participate in the DeltaCompetition. In July teams submitted papers that met the requirements of the DeltaCompetition. Of these, seven came from teams studying at universities in the Netherlands. The others came from such universities as the Asian Institute of Technology (Thailand), the University of Newcastle upon Tyne (United Kingdom), Louisiana State University (USA) and Birzeit University (Palestinian Territories). Their solutions ranged from sustainable infrastructure in flood-prone areas, flood forecasting systems and methods to prevent coastal erosion to integrated planning systems, spatial development strategies, floating cities and solutions for increasing risk awareness and preparedness. The panel of judges got to work on these 13 papers. We paid particular attention to the presence of a sound scientific basis, original or innovative elements in the solution and the quality of the presentation of the paper. Of the 13 papers submitted, five clearly stood out, scoring very well on these criteria. These papers are included in this book. In their paper A hydrological flood forecasting system for Mesoamerica, Jose Villalobos, Patricia Rodriguez and Philip Saksa from Lousiana State University have come up with the idea of developing an internet-accessible, userfriendly hydrological system that performs real-time flood forecasting for the Mesoamerican region. The system uses publicly available satellite remote sensing and geographical information to obtain the data necessary to process hydrologic models with the ability to predict flooding in coastal areas. Its uniqueness lies primarily in the incorporation of satellite rainfall estimates. Another positive feature of the idea is its applicability not only in the Mesoamerican region but also in other flood-prone areas in the world with limited access to relevant data. The Flood House Concept constitutes a new approach to reducing vulnerability to flooding. In their paper, Heleen Vreugdenhil, Leo Meijer, Lars Hartnack and Ties Rijcken from Delft University of Technology present their ideas of combining a memorial to Hurricane Katrina with a way to learn lessons and come up with measures to prevent future disasters. To achieve this, the team has come up with the flood house, a flood-proof water management centre in which people, science, government and business come together to learn, discuss and create new ideas about water management and flood related issues.
7 Both papers draw on a sound scientific basis and have sought solutions to improve awareness of and readiness to face the threats facing delta areas because of climate change. Both papers show ingenuity and are well-written and presented. However, the three other papers proved to be even better. Lisette van der Burgh (University of Twente) and Marit Brommer (Delft University of Technology) joined forces Competition to come up with an integrated approach to incorporating long-term morphological processes as well as the socio-economic development of delta areas in order to constitute a more sustainable basis for policy and decision making. In All you need is space, long-term and large-scale sustainable development in delta areas, they argue that although sea level rise constitutes a major threat to delta areas, much more attention should also be paid to long-term, gradual morphological processes that shape coastal configurations. Moreover, while current policy focuses much more on the relatively short-term development of the coastline, we should adopt a more strategic approach to the long term, including the effects of human interference on coastal evolution models and scenarios. It was primarily the scientific basis and originality of this paper that made us decide to award the third prize of the DeltaCompetition to Lisette van den Burgh and Marit Brommer. Another team from Delft University of Technology came up with a geographical design approach to spatial and urban development in the Pearl River Delta, focusing on the city of Guangzhou. Geert van Rens, Anne Loes Nilissen, Carianne Schamhart and Nadia Lugt effectively show in their paper that urban expansion in this rapidly developing delta could be better structured by an ecological zone that doubles as a green river. Not only will this reduce flood risks, but it will also make the city much more attractive and probably increase the value of adjacent houses and offices. Their geographical design approach is applicable anywhere and makes it possible to identify opportunities for interaction between functions and design solutions that fit well into their environment. Like the three other papers from Delft University of Technology, which were written in a combined and coordinated effort 1, the presentation of the paper is excellent. Their analysis effectively integrates two relevant scales of analysis that of the basin and of the city and applied a layer approach in their analysis and recommendations for future planning and development, which the panel of judges considered to be very innovative. Moreover, the geographical design approach is also relatively easily applicable and can be adopted in all other urbanized delta areas in the world. Therefore, the panel of judges awarded the second prize in the DeltaCompetition to this team. The most original, innovative as well as attractive paper was submitted to the DeltaCompetition by Rutger de Graaf, Michiel Fremouw, Bart van Bueren, Karina Czapiewska and Maarten Kuijper from Delft University of Technology. Their paper Floating city IJmeer, accelerator for delta technology is not only highly visionary, but also provides us with a pragmatic management approach to realize their long-term, sustainable solution to typical urban pressure in a typical delta - the IJmeer in the Netherlands. Moreover, their innovative floating city concept addresses a very urgent need to meet urbanization needs in the Amsterdam-Almere region. We believe that this paper is fine reading material for decision makers and stakeholders currently involved in this process. It combines technical solutions with a management approach based on transition theory, which is currently very popular in (public) management sciences. Finally, the paper is very accessible and the team has worked out inspiring graphical displays of their floating city. All in all, this paper is a highly innovative solution to an urgent problem in a typical delta area without losing sight of practical applicability by integrating technical, environmental, social, economic and public administration knowledge. It is not surprising that the panel of judges came to a unanimous decision to award the first prize of the DeltaCompetition to Floating city IJmeer.
8 The panel of judges wishes to thank and congratulate all participants in the DeltaCompetition. Not only has the DeltaCompetition inspired young students all over the world, but the solutions they have come up with are very promising indeed. We especially recommend reading these five papers to all experts, decision makers and other stakeholders involved. We believe that these contributions constitute a source of inspiration for urgent problems facing many densely populated delta areas throughout the world. And we encourage the students who have participated in the DeltaCompetition, and especially the prize winners, to continue their work and maintain their inspiration and enthusiasm when they graduate and become professionals and decision makers themselves. On behalf of the Panel of Judges, Prof. Ir. L. de Quelerij, Chairman 1 The DeltaSync team consisted of four teams from Delft University of Technology that each submitted a paper. DeltaSync was founded and coordinated by Ties Rijcken. Gert Jan de Werk from the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management was their reference teacher.
10 panel of judges CVs Prof. Ir. L. de Quelerij Louis de Quelerij was born on 29 July 1952 in Vlissingen, the Netherlands. He studied civil engineering at the Delft Technical University of Technology and obtained his Masters degree in From 1976 to 1986, he was employed by the Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management at the Rijkswaterstaat Department. From 1986 to 2002 he worked at Fugro Ingenieursbureau B.V., one of the operating companies of Fugro NV. As managing director, he was responsible for the geotechnical services in the Netherlands. He has been working for Fugro as director for one day/week from October 2002 to date. From that same date he has been professor of Civil Engineering and dean of the faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences at the Delft University of Technology. He has more than 25 years experience as geotechnical consultant in many infrastructure projects. He published over 30 international papers related to hydraulic engineering, sheetpiles, dynamic compaction, waste materials, maintenance and risk analysis. He is the final editor of the Dutch Guideline for Foundation Engineering (SBR). He is a member of the Dutch Royal Institute of Engineers (KIVI), Netherlands Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechncial Engineering (NSSMGE), registered engineer of the Professional Association of Dutch Consulting Engineers (ONRI). Currently he is chairman of the KIVI/NIRIA department Geotechnics, the BSIK research programme Delft Cluster, the TU Delft Research Centres Water, Earth and Mobility. w w w. c i t g. t u d e l ft. n l Prof. Dr. R. J. Nicholls Robert Nicholls was born in 1958 in the United Kingdom. He obtained his PhD on The Stability of Shingle Beaches in the Eastern Half of Christchurch Bay in 1985 from the University of Southampton. He has worked in the University of Plymouth, the University of Maryland, Flood Hazard Research Centre at Middlesex University, and since 2004 has been Professor of Coastal Engineering in the University of Southampton. His main research interests are long-term coastal engineering and management, especially the issues of coastal impacts and adaptation to climate change, with an emphasis on sea-level rise. This includes lead authorship of chapters in four reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC): Second Assessment Report (1996); the Regional Assessment (1998); the Special Report on Technology Transfer (2000); and the Third Assessment Report (2001). Currently, he is convening lead author for the Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas chapter in the IPCC 4th assessment, which is due to be published in He participated in the UK-funded Fast Track assessments of climate change as the coastal expert, led the SURVAS Project which reviewed vulnerability of coastal zones around the world from 1999 to 2001 and is leading the coastal research theme in Phase II of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. He was a lead investigator on the DINAS-COAST Project which lead to the development of the DIVA tool for sub-national to global vulnerability assessment. w w w. c i v i l. s o t o n. a c. u k /m a i n _ c i v i l. h t m 11
11 Prof. Dr. P. Hooimeijer Pieter Hooimeijer (born in 1955) obtained his PhD on Demographic Change, Household Evolution and the Housing Market from the University of Utrecht with Marianne Linde in From 1983 to 1984 Dr. Hooimeijer worked as Lecturer of Statistics at the Department of Geography Free University Amsterdam. He was Research Assistant at the Faculty of Geographical Sciences, University of Utrecht in From 1986 to 1988 he worked as NWO Research Fellow at the Faculty of Geographical Sciences University of Utrecht. Dr. Hooimeijer was Director of Education of the Netherlands Graduate School of Housing and Urban Research from 1988 to From 1991 to 1995 he worked as Associate Professor of Demography and Population Geography at the Faculty of Geographical Sciences Utrecht University and as Professor of Demography at the Institute of Planning and Demography at the Faculty of Environmental Sciences University of Amsterdam. From 1995 to 1998 he was Professor of Demography at the Faculty of Geographical Sciences Utrecht University. From 1999 to 2000 he worked as Scientific Director of the Netherlands Graduate School of Housing and Urban Research and Professor of Demography at Utrecht University. From 2001 to 2005 he was Dean at the Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Professor of Demography at Utrecht University. At this moment Dr. Hooimeijer is Professor of Human Geography, Head of Department Human Geography & Planning, Scientific Director Netherlands Graduate School of Urban and Regional Research. w w w. g e o. u u. n l Prof. Dr. R. A. Meganck Prof. Richard A. Meganck is the director of the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, the largest water education facility in the world. Prof. Meganck is a US citizen whose career spans twenty-five years of experience in international development and management of natural resources. He was Assistant Secretary General and Director for Sustainable Development and the Environment at the Organization of American States. In this capacity he managed over twenty major projects in trans-boundary water resources, renewable energy, natural hazard vulnerability reduction, climate change/sea level rise, public participation in decision-making and biodiversity management. Prof. Meganck was also the founding Director of the United Nations Environmental Program International Environmental Technology Center in Osaka, Japan. He served as the Director and Regional Representative of the United Nations Environmental Program for Asia and the Pacific in Bangkok. Prof. Meganck received his BS and MS from Michigan State University and received his PhD from Oregon State University. He is the author of more than 70 journal articles and published reports and has published more than 100 scientific papers. Prof. Meganck serves as an international advisor for several organizations including the Corporate Board of Advisors of the United Nations University and the Board of Governors of the World Water Council. w w w. u n e s c o - i h e. o r g 12
12 Dr. J.M. Visser After visiting the Netherlands as part of the New Orleans delegation and hearing about the DeltaCompetition, Dr. Jenneke Visser, associate professor at the Coastal Ecology Institute of the Louisiana State University also joined the team of jury members. Dr. Visser is particularly involved in coastal restoration and wetland protection research and projects. Among others, she is modeling coastal processes and landscape dynamics in the Louisiana Delta Plain and providing university assistance in the development of the Coastal Wetland Planning, Protection and Restoration Act. Dr. Visser was born in the Netherlands, where she did her bachelors and masters in Biology, at the University of Amsterdam. After that she moved to the USA and focused on marine sciences during her PhD at the Louisiana State University. In 2004 she became an associate professor research at this University. C.Th. Smit, LLM, MSc Tom Smit is Member of the Management Council of Royal Haskoning and the Director of the Spatial Development Division of Royal Haskoning. Besides his management position in the firm, he is management consultant and senior legal advisor in the field of water, spatial development and the environment. As a legal advisor he has been responsible for drafting a large number of water and environmental laws, among others in: >> Greece, advisory services for the Ministry of Environment concerning the new Environmental Law ( ), >> Egypt, advisory services for the Ministry of Water Resource Management concerning waterboard policies and rules ( ), >> Romania, advisory services for the Ministry of Environment concerning environmental and safety policies and rules (1998), >> Bosnia- Herzegovina, advisory services for three Entity s, an Organization of Independent Supervisors and the EU concerning the River Basin Authority policies and their implementation ( ), >> Netherlands, responsible for the extension and transition of the general terms of the Environmental Hygiene Law to the Environmental Management Law ( ). w w w. r o ya l h a s k o n i n g. c o m 13
13 Dr. Ir. M. J. van der Vlist Maarten van der Vlist, who was born on 25 October 1954, studied town and country planning at Wageningen University and until 1999 he worked there in the Spatial Planning Development Department. In 1998 he obtained his doctorate with a thesis on Duurzaamheid als planningsopgave (sustainability as a planning challenge) in which he investigated the area-focused coordination of spatial, environmental and water policy on a regional scale. Maarten van der Vlist has been a vision and development consultant on the staff of the Director-General for Public Works and Water Management of the Netherlands since April Prior to this Mr van der Vlist, worked for six years at the Institute for Inland Water Management and Waste Water Treatment (RWS-RIZA) in Lelystad ( ). He was head of the Space and Water Department. This relationship between water and space was also at the core of the scenario project Extreme toekomst: waterlast of waterlust (extreme future the water we want and the water we don t). He also contributed to the trend report Koersen op tijdgeest (setting a course in tune with the times) produced by the Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management. This knowledge formed part of the basis on which he advised policy directorates in The Hague on water policy. w w w.v e r k e e r e n w a t e r s t a a t. n l Dr. A. Datta Dr. Anjan Datta, born in 1952, studied Economics and Development Studies. After receiving a Masters in Economics with Honours, he started his career as a development worker and later moved into research leading to a PhD in Development Studies. In 2002 he joined the United Nations Environment Programme as Programme Officer and currently acts as the Head of Non-Point Source Pollution Unit in UNEP Coordination Office of the Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-based Activities. Prior to joining UNEP, during he worked with various research institutes, UN agencies, the World Bank, NGOs and bi-lateral donor agencies. During this time he also worked with the Institute of Social Studies, The Hague, the Netherlands and the MacArthur Foundation in the USA as a Fellow. In mid 1999 he joined the University of Leeds, United Kingdom as a staff member. During his tenure in the University of Leeds he acted as a Research Coordinator for the South Asia Sustainable Livelihood Policy Research Programme, and also worked as a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Water Policy and Development housed within the School of Geography. Over the years he published extensively on land and water resources management. He is the author of three books, published numerous articles for academic journals and edited books, and written many research monographs. w w w. u n e p. o r g 14
14 FLOATING CITY IJMEER ACCELERATOR FOR DELTA TECHNOLOGY Floating City IJmeer Accelerator for Delta Technology Prizewinner of The DeltaCompetition 2006 RuTGER DE GRAAF (TEAM LEADER) PhD Student Water Management MICHIEL FREMOuW Msc Student Building Technology BART VAN BuEREN Msc Student Architecture & Building Technology KARINA CZAPIEWSKA Msc Student Real Estate & Housing MAARTEN KuIJPER Msc Student Civil Engineering 1
15 Abstract Climate change, sea level rise, population growth and ongoing urbanization result in higher vulnerability of the Rhine Delta because it will result in increased flooding frequency, increasing investments and increased use of water, energy and other resources. The Rhine Delta also faces strong competition from thriving economies such as China and India. After agriculture and industry, services are moving away to low cost countries as well. Conventional urbanization increases flood risk. This study presents a more self-supporting, non risk increasing concept of urbanization in the Almere-Amsterdam region, that will contribute to further economic and technological development of the Rhine Delta. This transition experiment aims to learn and build experience with non risk increasing modes of urbanization in order to contribute to the societal change to a sustainable Rhine Delta. It uses local water and energy resources instead of external resources only. Moreover, its addition to housing capacity does not result in an equal addition to economic damage in case of flooding. The floating city is an accelerator for delta technology; it offers a testing ground for pilots of new water, energy and floating technology. It will enhance knowledge based activities in the Amsterdam-Almere region, a unique area with high economic potential. The testing ground in this region will attract knowledge intensive hi-tech companies as well as highly educated knowledge workers. The development of the floating city is combined with large scale wetland development in the IJmeer to create an ecological improvement. Moreover, Floating City IJmeer contributes to reducing regional mobility and housing problems and anticipates on an expected increased demand for water recreation. The transition management governance model is used to place the floating city in a broader perspective and offers guidance on turning this concept into reality. 1 Introduction The Rhine Delta is of high economic and geographic importance; Europe s largest harbour Rotterdam and an economic engine of high importance, the Amsterdam-Almere area, are located in this delta. The IJsselmeer-Waddenzee area is a wetland of European importance for ecology. The Amsterdam-Almere area is selected as a specific case study because in this region, balancing economy, ecology, recreation, housing and mobility requires development of innovative delta concepts. Water engineering made economic development of this once marshy delta possible, but also resulted in an area that is largely located below sea level. High investments and population density have made this area highly vulnerable to extreme flooding events with low probability (Graaf and Ven, submitted). Estimated damage in case of sea defense failure is 400 billion euros, an amount larger than the Dutch yearly available national budget (Ale, 2006). Climate change, sea level rise, population growth and ongoing urbanization result in higher vulnerability of the Rhine Fig. 1 Dutch areas below sea level (AHN) 16
16 Delta because it will result in increased flooding frequency, increased investments and increased use of water, energy and other resources. These resources are extracted from increasingly remote areas. As a result dependence of external areas, including politically unstable areas, will increase. The Rhine Delta also faces strong competition from thriving economies such as China and India. After agriculture and industry, services are moving away to low cost countries as well. Making the switch to knowledge-intensive high value added economic activities is therefore of vital importance for the Rhine Delta. Conventional urbanization increases flood risk. The aim of this study is to develop a more self supporting, non risk increasing concept of urbanization in the Almere Amsterdam region that will contribute to further economic and technological development in the Rhine Delta. In this paper we analyze national trends, developments in the Amsterdam region and technical innovations. We present a transition experiment of a more self-supporting floating city in the IJmeer. This transition experiment aims to learn and build experience with non risk increasing modes of urbanization in order to contribute to the societal change to a sustainable Rhine Delta. The floating city is an accelerator for delta technology; it offers a testing ground for pilots of new technology. 2 Scientific background 2.1 Sustainability Since the publication of the UN report Our common future of the Brundtland commission (WCED, 1987), sustainability is considered primarily in terms of continuing to improve human well being, whilst not undermining the natural resource base on which future generations will have to depend. There is no common agreement on the exact definition of sustainability. However, most approaches on sustainability mention balancing of interests between social, ecological and economical aspects. (Elkington, 2001; Rotmans, 2003; Butler, 2006). 2.2 Transitions to more sustainable urban areas More sustainable urban areas means balancing economic developments (mobility), social developments (flood security, housing demand) and ecological developments. Urbanization that also uses local resources of water and energy and which results in no further increase of expected damage (risk times impact) in case of flooding, contributes to sustainability. However, changing to other modes of urbanization by system innovation is a long term process, impeded by long expected lifetime of urban infrastructure (Butler, 1997; Hiessl et al., 2001), high levels of invested capital, high levels of uncertainty and institutional problems (Czemiel and Hyvonen, 2002). One of the main institutional problems is the number of institutions that are involved in urban development. Future developments in the Rhine Delta, such as climate change and economic, technological and demographical developments, are characterized by wide margins of uncertainty, creating fundamental problems for policy makers and water managers. Decisions are made without knowing the exact consequences or knowing future societal demands. A management approach to deal with complex problems under conditions of high uncertainty is transition management (Rotmans, 2003), which is aimed at realization of societal transformations to increase sustainability. A transition is a structural change in the way a societal system operates, and as such a long-term process (25-50 years) (Rotmans, 2003). Transition management thus is a governance model for long-term policies, since transitions typically take a generation or more to unfold. It starts from the recognition that for these highly complex and uncertain problems, blueprint solutions are impossible to develop on beforehand. Therefore, experimenting and learning-by-doing are crucial. Executing transition experiments is about learning new modes of urbanization (system innovation) rather than optimizing existing infrastructure. The information and experience gained by these experiments are used to improve other experiments, knowledge and skills until there is enough know-how and preparedness to transform current urban structure. 17
17 3 Analysis For a successful transition, the condition is that developments on macro, meso and micro scale have an enhancing effect on each other (Rotmans, 2003). Therefore, developments on three levels will be evaluated. National developments on macro scale, regional developments on meso scale and technical innovations on micro scale. Based on a workshop meeting with all Deltasync teams, we selected trends that are particularly important for the Rhine Delta. 3.1 Macro level Demographic developments Population growth will probably continue until 2035 and stabilize just below 18 million inhabitants (CBS, 2006). Slow population decrease will start around 2040 according to the average scenario. Moreover, the number of inhabitants per house will also decrease from 2.31 now to 2.17 in (CBS, 2006) This will cause continued growing of housing demand in the Netherlands for the coming decades. In the Dutch urban delta, the expected rise in households will be much higher than the average Dutch level. As a result, housing demand in this area will be very high. Another important demographic development is aging of the Dutch population. The percentage of people of 65 years and older will rise from 14.4% to around 20% in 2025 (CBS, 2006). The worker-pensioner ratio currently is 4 to 1. However, in 2040 this will have increased to 2.5 to 1. As a result the financial burden for the working part of the population will increase. Innovation and development of the knowledge economy will be important to sustain the social system by increasing competitive capacity of the economy and production efficiency. 22 x mln global economy strong europe transatlantic market regional communities prognosis Fig. 2 Long term population growth according to various scenarios (Jong, 2004) Climate change Climate projections in Table 1 (KNMI, 2006) indicate that in the Netherlands more rainfall can be expected in winter whereas the summers become drier. Droughts will occur more frequently and the variation of water resources increases. The expected summer discharge of the Rhine will decrease with 10% in an average climate scenario and even 60% in a dry scenario (NMP, 2005). Another effect of climate change is sea level rise, this effect combined with land subsidence and lower river discharge in summer can result in problems with salinity and increases flooding frequency. Consequently, water intake from rivers in delta areas becomes more difficult, the chance of water shortage increases. The frequency, at which years with very high salinity in the delta (like 1976) occur, increases with 80% in an average climate scenario (RIZA, 2005). Overall, creating space for water storage will be increasingly important as well as developing building technology that contributes to reduced flooding vulnerability. 18
18 2050 G G+ W W+ Global temperature rise +1 C +1 C +2 C +2 C Change air circulation pattern in Western Europe no yes no yes Winter Average temperature +0,9 C +1,1 C +1,8 C +2,3 C Average precipitation amount 4% 7% 7% 14% 10 days precipitation sum with expected exceeding frequency of once in 10 years 4% 6% 8% 12% Highest daily average wind velocity per year 0% 2% -1% 4% Summer Average temperature +0,9 C +1,4 C +1,7 C +2,8 C Average precipitation amount 3% -10% 6% -19% 10 days precipitation sum with expected exceeding frequency of once in 10 years 13% 5% 27% 10% Potential evaporation 3% 8% 7% 15% Sea level Absolute increase cm cm cm cm Table 1 - Climate scenarios for the Netherlands (KNMI, 2006) Knowledge based economy After agriculture and manufacturing, services are also being outsourced to low cost countries such as India and China. In the IT sector, for instance, outsourcing is expected to grow 44% this year (Ernst&Young, 2006). As set out in the Lisbon strategy in 2000, the European Union should focus its efforts in the realms of science, technology and sustainability to create growth and jobs. Europe seems to be experiencing a brain drain however, as there is a net migration of people with a tertiary education to the US (EC, 2003). A renewed effort is required to reach the Lisbon-strategy goals (EC, 2006), either by means of funding or by projects. The Amsterdam-Almere region includes two universities, several research institutes and numerous hightech companies, making it an area of interest for Dutch efforts in reaching these goals. At this moment, however, the Amsterdam area is rated at place 11 in Europe for public and private R&D investments as percentage of Gross Regional Product (Regio Randstad, 2005). In addition, to make the step from science and knowledge towards economic impacts, applying science in practice is necessary. Starting small scale transition experiments where all kinds of innovative technologies can be applied, tested and further developed will enhance knowledge based activities in this region. This testing ground will attract knowledge intensive hi-tech companies as well as highly educated knowledge workers. 3.2 Meso level Development of recreation and tourism Both Amsterdam and Almere are expanding towards the IJmeer. Population increase in the region will result in additional pressure on existing recreational locations and a demand for new ones. This is not necessarily a negative influence on local ecology, according to a collective of nine interest groups (both governmental and non-governmental) combined (Stuurgroep Verkenning IJmeer, 2005), because it can be combined with ecological enrichment. Additionally, recreational activities with a low environmental impact (like sailing) can be stimulated by building additional facilities in the region. 19
19 Development of the Amsterdam-Almere area The IJmeer region is part of the Dutch ecological main structure, and plays an important role in bird migration in Europe. Stuurgroep Verkenning IJmeer, has ascertained that the ecosystem in the region has been rapidly declining since the early nineties, and that not intervening will result in a continuation of this process. On the other hand, the city of Almere is continuing to grow, and next to the added pressure of housing projects, the increase in population requires additional recreational functions in the area. However, these two demands are not necessarily mutually exclusive. A balance needs to be found between ecological preservation demands and housing needs. Urban and recreational developments in the IJmeer combined with large scale nature development can strengthen both economic and ecological values in this region. (Stuurgroep Verkenning IJmeer, 2005). The presence of Schiphol one of Europe s main air hubs, the Netherlands second largest seaport and a prestigious business district on the Zuidas makes the so-called Randstad Noordvleugel an economic centre of national importance. At this moment, the Amsterdam region is listed in the top-5 favourite places to locate a business in Europe. (Regio Randstad, 2005). To continue growth and attract more expat knowledge workers, the Zuidas business district would also benefit from additional high quality housing. Its unique location and innovative nature will make the floating city a growth catalyst in the region. The VROM council and the V&W council argue that for continued growth of Amsterdam and Almere, these main cities in the Noordvleugel should be developed not separately but as a conjoined urban area, a twin city. The opportunities for housing growth in Amsterdam are limited, whereas Almere can still expand to the west. (VROM/V&W, 2006). Demand for housing The estimated shortage of houses in the Amsterdam-Almere area was in 2002 (Vermazen, 2002). Building locations in the direct vicinity of Amsterdam are necessary to reach the ambitious targets set by the municipal board of Amsterdam. In the period to 2010, new houses will have to be built in the Amsterdam area. According to the head of the Housing Corporations in Amsterdam, new building sites are essential to reach those targets. (Peijs, 2006). Because of its location between the two large cities, the IJmeer is an area of interest in this matter. With IJburg, Amsterdam has already created a new housing project in the area, and Almere is soon to follow with Almere Pampus and Almere Poort along the IJmeer s rim (Fig. 3). Fig. 3 Urban development of Amsterdam and Almere (Peijs, structuurdocument, 2006) Demand for infrastructure The economic damage caused by traffic congestion in the Netherlands is estimated to be a650 million in 2006, most of which originates from urban beltways and main traffic axes (RWS-AVV, 2004). According to Rijkswaterstaat, the province of Flevoland has the longest living-working distances in the Netherlands and that performance of the A6 connection between Almere and Amsterdam is among the lowest (Rijkswaterstaat, 2005). The ministry of Economic Affairs considers motor vehicle accessibility in the Randstad s North Wing to be of national priority (EZ, 2006). A preliminary study published by the ROA (Regional Body of Amsterdam) in April of 2006 suggests an improved public transportation connection between Almere and Amsterdam is a necessity for continued development of the region. It also suggests an additional road connection over the IJmeer, while not strictly necessary, will improve current traffic conditions in the region (ROA, 2006). 20
20 3.3 Micro level Small scale transition experiments can contribute in achieving sustainable development and can stimulate the development of a knowledge based economy. In this paragraph some innovative technologies with particular opportunities for Dutch delta technology are further elaborated. Floating structure technology Current floating homes are constructed using concrete pontoons as a basis, due to inherent stability, low cost, no required maintenance (Hendriks, 1999) and the ability to use the pontoon itself as a living space (Aqua Struenda, 2004). With a few adaptations this technology should be able to provide a basis for an entire city. To this end either large quantities of pontoons need to be prefabricated, or fewer, larger elements in a dry-dock near the site (specially constructed for this purpose). It s possible to create elements up to 150 meters long and wide in this fashion (Kuijper, 2006). Joining elements brings the added benefit of a fail-safe mechanism to the structure, because even if an accident causes one element to lose buoyancy, its neighbours can still distribute its load. Larger elements can benefit from this fail-safe mechanism by internal compartmentalization. The resulting compartments can be utilized, for example as storage rooms, parking garages or building engineering spaces. A recent alternative to this technology is the combined use of EP-foam and concrete. EP-foam can be moulded into complex shapes, and by shaping these in such a way that concrete can be poured into the openings between the blocks, the result is an unsinkable float with a concrete framework (Rijcken, 2003). The flexibility of this system allows for creation of complex, organically shaped floats, making it possible to create more natural settings within the floating city. Fig. 4 Floating element (Rijcken, 2003) 21