Impacts of Demand and Technology in Brazilian Economic Growth of
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1 Impacts of Demand and Technology in Brazilian Economic Growth of Elcio Cordeiro da Silva 1, Daniel Lelis de Oliveira 2, José Tarocco Filho 3 and Umberto Antonio SessoFilho 4 Abstract: The objective of the paper is to identify the principal sources of economic growth in Brazil between 2000 and Therefore, were used Input-Output Matrices of Brazil developed by the Center for Regional and Urban Economics, University of São Paulo (NEREUS).The sources of economic growth were decomposed into contributions from changes in final demand, changes in technology and interaction between them. Additionally were measured the effects broken down by category of final demand on the production of each of the three major sectors: agriculture, industry and services. The results demonstrate that the principal source of economic growth in the period was the effect of changes in final demand, which accounts for 143% of the liquid economic growth, but the effect technology and interaction effect showed negative signs, reducing economic growth in Brazil. Another important aspect was evidence of deindustrialization in the country: in the period under analysis it is observed that the net growth of the agricultural and services sectors were higher than liquid growth of the industry. Keywords: Economic growth, industry sector, structural change, deindustrialization, final demand 1. Introduction The years from 2000 to 2009 have meant for Brazil, a period of intense economic, technological and institutional changes. Among these changes stand out from price stability, low economic growth and, subsequently, resumed from the years 2004 according to data the system of national accounts (SCN/2000), trade liberalization - which started in the 1990s - and large variations in the exchange rate, result from the change of the fixed exchange rate regime for floating exchange rate and an improvement in income distribution. An exchange variation in a significant way impacted many sectors of the economy, favoring some and disadvantaging other productive sectors. According Fochezatto and Ghinis (2008) the most benefited sectors were: a) less dependent on imported inputs, b) those with higher elasticity of substitution of imported inputs for domestic c) those greater elasticity of substitution of the final product imported by the domestic and d) those with production mainly aimed at the external market.trade openness influenced the sectoral and spatial structure of production. Moreover, trade liberalization tends to improve the technical efficiency of the economy, since the expo to the international economy forces companies to work on a 1 Graduated in Economics from the State University of Londrina, Master in Regional Economics for Londrina State University. elcio_c.silva@hotmail.com. 2 Graduated in Economics from the University of Brasilia, Master in Regional Economics For Londrina State University.E mail: dlelis@hotmail.com. 3 Graduated in Economics from the State University of Maringá, Master in Regional Economics For Londrina State University. jtarocco@hotmail.com. 4 Ph.D. in economics from the University of São Paulo, associate professor at the State University of Londrina. E- mail: umasesso@uel.br. Highway Celso Garcia Cid - Pr 445 Km University Campus Phone: (43)
2 more efficient scale of production, thus searching for a reduce in the costs and raise the productivity of labor (NASSIF, 2005). Therefore, this study aims to identify the sources of economic growth of the Brazilian economy in the period Through the methodology of input-output, the expansion of the Brazilian GDP can be explained fundamentally by three effects: changes in final demand (changes in the structure of the market for goods and services), technological variations (mutations in the technical structure of production) and synergy between the two effects. 2. Methodology The behavior of an economy mostly consists in the equalization of demand and supply inserted in a wider network of activities. Thus, the economy is seen as a system of interdependence, ie, the sectors are interrelated, each sector sup demand for goods and services from other sectors and at the same time, the same demand for goods and services the execution of their productive activities. The record from this interdependence system is known as input-output theory (Guilhoto, 2011). For the identification of the sources of growth of the Brazilian economy, are used Matrices Input-Output in Brazil for the years 2000 and 2009, developed by the Center for Regional and Urban Economics, University of São Paulo (NEREUS). For the purposes of this paper, Matrices Input Product containing 56 sectors and 110 products will be used.this paper followed the methodology presented in Fochezatto and Ghinis (2008) Battha (2002) s works. The total demand of the product in a particular industry, for example, sector i is equal to the sum of intermediate flows or intermediate demand (quantity of inputs demanded by the sector itself and for others), and final demand (household consumption, consumption government, gross fixed capital formation plus changes in companies stocks and liquid exports): (1) Whereof is the total demand of the product of sector i,; the sum of the demands of the intermediate product of sector i by the sector j, is the consumption of the product of sector iby households; ; product demand of sector i for gross fixed capital formation and stock variation by firms; product consumption sector i by the government ; are product exports sector i, and imports of the product of sector i.the gross output of sector j is equal to the sum of intermediate consumption plus value added: (2) is the total output of sector j. the sum of intermediate consumption products sector i by sector j, remuneration of labor in sector j, the gross operating surplus of sector j, and the amount of indirect taxes paid by sector j.for each sector of the economy, gross output equals its total demand: (3) Thus, one can obtain the gross domestic product by the sum of value added sectors, resulting in aggregate income, or the sum of the demand of the final product of each sector, determining the aggregate expenditure in the economy: (4) 184
3 The model of input-output multipliers, generally assumes that the supply is determined by demand. That way, from the equation (1) can be deduced as the present model: (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) Whereof total final demand of the product of sector i, a ij the technical coefficients of the input-output (amount of producti required to produce one unit of product j), X the vector of sectoral output, Athe matrix of technical coefficients, Y is the vector of final demand sector and, B = (I A) -1 is the inverse Leontief matrix. The coefficients of the inverse matrix B are called direct and indirect requirements of production. These technical coefficients represent the relationship between technological sectors, thus capturing the sectoral interdependencies. Technological changes in the economy over time are captured by the changes these technical coefficients. For the identification of the sources of economic growth, the matrix vector multipliers and demand are decomposed into two effects: technological change and changes in the market structure of final demand.based on the equation (12) for the periods 2000 and 2009, the production variation can be decomposed as follows:,,. (13),,. (14),,,,, (15),,,,,,,, (16),,,,,,, (17), (, ) is the vector of sectoral production in Brazil in 2000 (2009),, (, ) is the inverse Leontief matrix in 2000 (2009),, (. ) is the vector of final demand in 2000 (2009),, is the variation of sectoral output in period , ;, variation of final demand in the period and the variation and, the variance of the matrix technology in the period Equation (17) shows how economic growth can be decomposed: a),, = Effect of changes in final demand (market structure of final goods and services), maintaining constant technology; 185
4 b),, = effect of technological changes, maintaining the market structure of final demand constant; c),, = effect of interaction between technological changes and changes in the structure of final demand. The contribution of each component of final demand can be obtained by decomposing the vector of final demand. For example, the contribution of government consumption (G) is expressed as follows:,,, (18) Same procedure is applied for household consumption, for gross fixed capital formation plus variations inventories and exports. 3. Results Subsequent sections presents the main results obtained using the methodology defined above, results that describe the process of growth of the Brazilian economy in , both in aggregate how much per economic activity Results and Aggregated at the Sectorial Level According to Table 1, the liquid expansion of the Brazilian economy in the period 2000 to 2009 was R$ 898,458 million. The final demand effect contributed approximately R$ 1,282 billion, however, the interation and technologicaleffects contributed negatively to the expansion of production in the period, and (-R$ 134,885 million) and (-R$ 248,975 million) respectively. Thus, it s found out that the effect final demand was the main source of growth in Brazilian production in the period.but, when he same effects at the sectoral level are observed, the industrial sector was the most affected by the negative effects of technology (-366%) and interaction (-336%). These impacts decreased the growth of the industrial sector on the period, contributing to the significant loss of industry sectors front of agriculture and services in the process of economic growth in Brazil (Figure 1). Another diagnosis can be made when liquid growth by sector was observed: in the period under analysis, there is a reduction in the share of industry in the process of economic growth in Brazil. Authors such as Nassif (2008), Feijo et al. (2005) and Sonaglio (2011) highlight deindustrialization symptoms as the loss of share in GDP of the industrial sector for the service sector and agriculture. Hence, the results obtained in this study corroborate the works mentioned above, evidencing the process of de-industrialization in Brazil.The effect of changes in final demand also prevailed at the sectoral level, the main source of economic growth in all three sectors: agriculture (85%), industry (802%) and services (97%). As previously noticed, the inverse Leontief matrix coefficients constitute the direct and indirect requirements of production, thus the negative effect of technology on an aggregate level, the principle can be considered as the replacement of manufactured nationally inputs by production imported factors (BHATTA, 2002).Regarding the interaction effect - the relationship between the demand and the technology - at first perceived, that even with significant changes in final demand in the analyzed period, the Brazilian economy has not changed technological SIGNIFICANT aggregate level, the point positively influence economic growth (and FOCHEZATTO GHINIS, 2008). As regards the contribution of each component of final demand, predominance of household consumption, R$ 657,397 million, about 51% of final demand effect, followed by government consumption, R$ 234,534 million, investment, R$ 233,885 million and exports, R$ 156,503 million (Table 2).A significant 186
5 participation of household consumption at the aggregate level, it is also observed at the sectoral level, the three sectors, household consumption was the final demand factor that most contributed to the expansion of production: agriculture (60%), industry (42%) and services (56%) (Figure 2). Table 1-Effect final demand, and interaction technology, (millions) Sectors Effect of final demand Effect technology Interaction effect Liquid growth Agriculture Industry Services Total Figure 1 - Effect of final demand, technology and interaction, (%) 1000% 800% 802% 600% 400% 200% 85% 16% 97% 9% 143% 0% 200% 400% 1%% 7% 15% agriculture industry services liquid growth 28% 366% 336% effect of final demand effect technology interaction effect One possible explanation for the significant participation of household consumptionn in the process of Brazilian economic growth, is expressed by Souza (2008), the author highlights the improvement on income distribution in the country in recent years as the main mechanism for leverage of the market. Among government policies, it is worthy report the increase in the purchasing power of the minimum wage, which caused an increase in the share of national income of the poorest 50% %.In addition to the household consumption, in agriculture, the effect of exports (43%) was the second greatest effect on the growth of production of the same, this fact is due to the character agro-exported Brazil; in industry was the effect investment (36%) followed by exports (14%) and, finally, in the service sector, the effect of government spending (27%) followed by investments (9%) and exports (8%) were the most significant effects on economic expansion sector. Table 2.Household and government consumption, investment and exports, (millions) Effect of Effect Effect of Effect of Liquid Sectors Household of Government Investment Export growth Agriculture
6 Industry Services Total Figure 2 - Effect of (%) household consumption, government consumption, investment and exports, 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 60% 43% 2% 42% 56% 36% 27% 14% 8% 9% 8% 51% 18% 18% 12% Effect of Household Effect of Government Effect of Investment Effect of Export 0% 10% 5% agriculture industry services liquid growth 4. Final Considerations Based on the model presented in the works of Fochezatto and Ghinis (2008) and Batthaa (2002), this study sought to identify the sources of economic growth of the Brazilian economy in the period , in decomposing effects of changes in final demand changes technological (technical changes to the structure of the economy) and the interaction between them. Moreover, the disaggregated contributions were measured by category of final demand (household consumption, government consumption, investment and exports) for the three sectors: agriculture, industry and services. Hence, input-output matrices of Brazil 2000 and 2009 were used, prepared by the Center for Regional and Urban Economics, University of São Paulo (NEREUS). The expansion of the Brazilian economy in the period was R$ 898,458 million. The effect of final demand contributed R $ 1,282,318 billion, But, the effects of technology and interaction reduced the expansionn of production in the period, and (-R $ 134,885 million) and (-R$ 248,975 million) respectively. Thus, it was observed that the effect of changes in final demand was the main source of growth in Brazilian production in the period analyzed.thee negative value effect of technology may be regarded as substitution of inputs nationally manufactured inputs by imported production factors (BHATTA, 2002). However, Guilhoto cited Bhatta (2002) argues that the negative sign of the effect may be caused by the improved technical efficiency, i.e. the sectors implemented new production techniques which allowed us to increasee production without the need of an increasing demand for factors production. The predominant effect of final demand is also observed at the sectoral level, for the three sectors experienced positive contributions of final demand. Thus demonstrating the importance of the final demand is a promoter of economicc growth in the period.when emphasized liquid growth sectors, it is observed in the period under review, the reduction in the participation of industry in the process of 188
7 economic growth in Brazil. This result corroborates the economic literature proving the process of deindustrialization in Brazil.Of the components of final demand, the effect of household consumption was the principal source of economic growth in the period, with a possible explanation for this significant contribution, would be the improvement in income distribution in the country in recent years. References BHATTA, S. D. Structural change and economic growth: Sources of output change in Chicago during the 1990s. Urban Planning and Policy Program, University of Illinois at Chicago, FEIJÓ, C. A.; CARVALhO, P. G. M.; ALMEIDA, J. S. G. Ocorreu uma desindustrialização no Brasil? Instituto de estudos para o desenvolvimento Industrial, Discussão. FOCHEZATTO, A.; GHINIS, C. P. Contribuições da demanda e da tecnologia para o crescimento econômico regional: Uma análise multissetorial. Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia. ANPEC GUILHOTO, J. J. M. Análise de insumo-produto: teoria e fundamentos GUILHOTO, J.J.M., SESSO FILHO, U.A. Estimação da Matriz Insumo-Produto Utilizando Dados Preliminares das Contas Nacionais: Aplicação e Análise de Indicadores Econômicos para o Brasil em Economia & Tecnologia. UFPR/TECPAR. Ano 6, Vol 23, Out GUILHOTO, J.J.M., SESSO FILHO, U.A. Estimação da Matriz Insumo-Produto a Partir de Dados Preliminares das Contas Nacionais. Economia Aplicada. Vol. 9. N. 2. pp Abril-Junho HIDALGO, A. B., CAMPOS, M. F. S. S. Abertura comercial e desigualdade de rendimentos: análise para as regiões brasileiras. XL ENCONTRO NACIONALDE ECONOMIA. ANPEC NASSIF, A. Há evidências de desindustrialização no Brasil? Revista de economia política, São Paulo, n. 28, p , NASSIF, A. As fontes de mudança da eficiência técnica da indústria brasileira após a liberalização comercial: uma estimação econométrica por dados de plantas. Economia Aplicada 9.1 (2005). SONAGLIO, Claudia Maria. Fatos sobre a possível desindustrialização no Brasil: mudança conjuntural ou estrutural?. Economia & tecnologia (UFPR), v. 24, p , SOUZA, Nilson A. Economia brasileira contemporânea: de Getúlio a Lula. 2 ed. São Paulo: Atlas,
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