Slide 1. Virksomhedsdagen 2013 Den Danske Finansanalytikerforening. Jesper Brandgaard, CFO. June 2013

Transcription

1 Slide 1 Virksomhedsdagen 2013 Den Danske Finansanalytikerforening Jesper Brandgaard, CFO June 2013

2 Slide 2 Forward-looking statements Novo Nordisk s reports filed with or furnished to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including this document as well as the company s Annual Report 2012 and Form 20-F, both filed with the SEC in February 2013, and written information released, or oral statements made, to the public in the future by or on behalf of Novo Nordisk, may contain forwardlooking statements. Words such as believe, expect, may, will, plan, strategy, prospect, foresee, estimate, project, anticipate, can, intend, target and other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of future operating or financial performance identify forward-looking statements. Examples of such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: Statements of targets, plans, objectives or goals for future operations, including those related to Novo Nordisk s products, product research, product development, product introductions and product approvals as well as cooperation in relation thereto Statements containing projections of or targets for revenues, costs, income (or loss), earnings per share, capital expenditures, dividends, capital structure, net financials and other financial measures Statements regarding future economic performance, future actions and outcome of contingencies such as legal proceedings, and Statements regarding the assumptions underlying or relating to such statements. These statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific. Novo Nordisk cautions that a number of important factors, including those described in this document, could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in any forwardlooking statements. Factors that may affect future results include, but are not limited to, global as well as local political and economic conditions, including interest rate and currency exchange rate fluctuations, delay or failure of projects related to research and/or development, unplanned loss of patents, interruptions of supplies and production, product recall, unexpected contract breaches or terminations, government-mandated or market-driven price decreases for Novo Nordisk s products, introduction of competing products, reliance on information technology, Novo Nordisk s ability to successfully market current and new products, exposure to product liability and legal proceedings and investigations, changes in governmental laws and related interpretation thereof, including on reimbursement, intellectual property protection and regulatory controls on testing, approval, manufacturing and marketing, perceived or actual failure to adhere to ethical marketing practices, investments in and divestitures of domestic and foreign companies, unexpected growth in costs and expenses, failure to recruit and retain the right employees, and failure to maintain a culture of compliance. Please also refer to the overview of risk factors in the Risk overview on p 43 of the Annual Report 2012 available on the company s website novonordisk.com. Unless required by law, Novo Nordisk is under no duty and undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement after the distribution of this document, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Important drug information Victoza (liraglutide) is approved for the management of type 2 diabetes only

3 Slide 3 Highlights first three months of 2013 Sales development Sales increased by 14% in local currencies and 13% in Danish kroner: North America and International Operations grew by 24% and 17% in local currencies, respectively Modern insulins grew by 16% in local currencies driven by NovoRapid and Levemir Victoza sales grew by 36% in local currencies Tresiba launched in the UK, Denmark and Japan Research and Development In the US, Novo Nordisk is in a constructive dialogue with the FDA on how to resolve the cardiovascular issues raised in the Complete Response Letter for Tresiba and Ryzodeg. Novo Nordisk expects to initiate the cardiovascular outcomes trial for Tresiba within a year People with type 2 diabetes achieved 6% weight loss with liraglutide 3 mg in SCALE TM -diabetes trial Sustain 6, the first phase 3a trial with semaglutide, a once-weekly GLP-1 analogue, has been initiated Financials Operating profit increased 18% and diluted earnings per share increased 32% 2013 financial outlook updated: Sales growth now of 9-11% in local currencies Operating profit growth still of around 10% in local currencies

4 Slide 4 Novo Nordisk at a glance The core equity story A focused pharmaceutical company with leading positions in diabetes, haemophilia and hgh Double digit top line growth, driven by diabetes pandemic Significant growth opportunities fuelled by global presence and strong R&D pipeline High barriers to entry in biologics Operating profit growth targeting 15% Operating profit after tax to net operating assets targeting 125% Earnings conversion to cash targeting 90% Cash generated is returned to shareholders North America: Market share 41% Global leader in diabetes care Global insulin market share: 49% Europe: Market share 50% International Operations: Market share 57% Japan & Korea: Market share 55% China: Market share 60% Global/regional headquarter Note: MAT Jan 2013, insulin volume Source: IMS Manufacturing R&D facility

5 Den Danske Finansanalytikerforening Novo Nordisk s strategy: five strategic focus areas June 2013 Slide 5 Strategic focus areas Core capabilities Expand leadership in DIABETES Engineering, formulating, developing and delivering proteinbased treatments Deep disease understanding Efficient Planning Expand large-scale leadership and production executing of proteins global launches of new products Building and maintaning a leading position in emerging markets Establish presence in OBESITY Pursue leadership in HAEMOPHILIA Expand leadership in GROWTH DISORDERS Establish presence in INFLAMMATION Novo Nordisk Way and the Triple Bottom Line business principle

6 Novo Nordisk has leading positions in diabetes, haemophilia and growth disorders Diabetes Market value Novo Nordisk market share Global market position # Haemophilia Market value Novo Nordisk market share Global market position #2 Den Danske Finansanalytikerforening June % 25% 20% 15% 10% Growth hormone deficiency Market value Novo Nordisk market share Global market position CAGR 1 value : 13.2% CAGR 1 value : 9.3% CAGR 1 value : 4.9% #1 Slide % Jan 2008 Jan FY 2008 FY % Jan 2008 Jan 2013 Note: MAT value figures 1 CAGR for 5-year period Source: IMS Note: Annual sales figures for Haemophilia A,B and inhibitor segment. 1 CAGR for 5-year period Source: Company reports Note: MAT value figures 1 CAGR for 5-year period Source: IMS

7 Double digit top line growth driven by diabetes pandemic Novo Nordisk reported quarterly sales by therapy Diabetes care Haemophilia Growth Disorders Other Million people Den Danske Finansanalytikerforening The number of people with diabetes according to IDF North America China June 2013 Slide 7 Europe Japan & Korea Int. Operations Reported sales CAGR 1 : 12.6% 552 CAGR 1 : 7.8% Q % 11.4% 8.2% 13,9% Q E 2010E 2012E 2030E 1 CAGR for 10 year period Note: age group 1 CAGR for 12-year period Source: International Diabetes Foundation: Diabetes Atlas, 2000, 2010 and 2012

8 Slide 8 Novo Nordisk continues to expand leadership position within diabetes care Global diabetes care market by treatment class Global diabetes care value market share GLP-1 Insulin OAD Novo Nordisk Takeda Lilly Merck BMS Novartis Total market: CAGR 10.2% Sanofi GSK 26% Injectables: CAGR 15.3% CAGR 13.9% CAGR 6.1% Jan 2003 Jan 2013 Jan 2003 Jan 2013 Note: Monthly MAT, value figures. CAGR for 10-year period. Source: IMS Note: Monthly MAT, value figures Source: IMS

9 Slide 9 Diabetes pandemic is fuelled by growing rates of obesity Obesity (BMI 30 kg/m 2 ) US CDC data on obesity and diabetes prevalence among adults No Data <14.0% % % % >26.0% Diabetes No Data <4.5% % % % >9.0% Source: CDC s Division of Diabetes Translation. National Diabetes Surveillance System available at

10 Progression of type 2 diabetes and treatment intensification Den Danske Finansanalytikerforening Insulin is the ultimate care for people with diabetes June 2013 Distribution of patients and value across treatment classes Tablets GLP-1 Insulin Slide 10 Diet and excercise β-cell function Tablets GLP-1 Insulin Time Patients Value Note: Patient distribution across treatment classes is indicative and based on data for US, UK, Germany and France. Source: IMS PharMetrix claims data, IMS disease analyser, IMS Midas

11 Slide 11 Novo Nordisk is uniquely positioned being the only company with a full portfolio of modern insulins Brand name Type Launch Sales 2012 Brand share of segment Jan 2013 Patent expiration Fast-acting insulin EU: 1999 US: b (+23%) 50% EU: US: Premixed insulin EU: 2002 US: b (+13%) 45% EU: US: Long-acting insulin EU: 2004 US: b (+27%) 20% EU: 2018 US: Formulation patent. The molecule patent for NovoRapid has expired in EU and will expire in 2014 in the US. The NovoMix molecule patent in the US will expire in Source: IMS, Monthly MAT, brand value of total segment. Reported sales 2012 (vs. 2011) in.

12 Den Danske Finansanalytikerforening June 2013 Slide 12 Significant growth opportunities fuelled by strong R&D pipeline OI338GT - Oral insulin OG987GT - Oral GLP-1 Diabetes care and obesity OI362GT - Oral insulin OI287GT - Oral insulin FIAsp - Ultra fast acting insulin OG217SC - Oral GLP-1 OG987SC - Oral GLP-1 LATIN T1D - GLP-1 analogue IDegLira - GLP-1 & basal insulin combo Semaglutide - Long-acting GLP-1 Liraglutide 3 mg - GLP-1 (Obesity) Tresiba - Ultra longacting basal insulin 1 Ryzodeg -New combination insulin 1 LAI287 - Ultra-longacting basal insulin Haemophlia and hgh mab Monoclonal anti-tfpi NN Long-acting hgh N8-GP - Long-acting rfviii N9-GP - Long-acting rfix Turoctocog alfa - rfviii Catridecacog - rfxiii Inflammation Anti-NKG2A - mab (Rheumatoid arthritis) Anti-IL-21 - mab (Systemic lupus) Phase 1 Anti-C5aR mab (Rheumatoid arthritis) Anti-C5aR mab (Rheumatoid arthritis) Anti-IL-21 - mab (Crohn s Disease) Catridecacog - rfxiii (Ulcerative colitis) Anti-IL-21 - mab (Rheumatoid arthritis) Anti-IL-20 mab 2 (Rheumatoid arthritis) Phase 2 Phase 3 Regulatory review 1 Approved in EU, Mexico, Norway, Iceland and Switzerland (only Tresiba ). Tresiba launched in Japan, UK and Denmark. 2 In phase 2b.

13 Slide 13 Operating profit growth, driven by gross margin improvements and operational leverage Operating profit Operating profit Operating profit as % of sales Operating profit growth vs. last year 32% The fundamental drivers of operating profit growth Gross margin improvement On-going productivity improvements of manufacturing processes Favourable product mix evolution within diabetes care 24% 21% 27% 18% Operational leverage Economies of scale in Sales & Distribution and Administration from focus on diabetes care Note: Adjusted for costs related to the discontinuation of pulmonary diabetes projects

14 Slide 14 Continued decline in relative COGS level combined with stable investment level Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) Capital expenditures (CAPEX) COGS COGS as % of sales CAPEX CAPEX as % of sales

15 Den Danske Finansanalytikerforening June 2013 Slide 15 Growing profits converted into free cash flow Net profit EPS diluted Net profit Free cash flow (absolute) Free cash flow Free cash flow as % of net profit

16 Den Danske Finansanalytikerforening June 2013 Slide 16 Cash generated is returned to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks Dividend and payout ratio (year of dividend pay) Dividend paid Payout ratio Share repurchases programmes (year of repurchase) Share repurchase programme Expansion following ZymoGenetics divestment E payout ratio adjusted for the divestment of ZymoGenetics business activities 1 12 month share repurchase programme initiated 31 January 2013

17 Slide 17 Long-term financial targets Performance against long-term financial targets Average Result Previous targets Updated targets 2 Operating profit growth 27% 32% 15% 15% Operating margin 32% 38% 35% 40% Operating profit after tax to net operating assets 65% 99% 90% 125% Cash to earnings (three years average) 108% 104% 90% 90% Note: The long term financial targets are based on an assumption of a continuation of the current business environment and given the current scope of business activities and has been prepared assuming that currency exchange rates remain at the level as of 28 January, Simple average of reported figures ; 2 The long-term financial targets were updated in connection with the FY2012 Financial Release.

18 Slide 18 Closing remarks Solid market performance Promising pipeline + 10% annual diabetes care market growth driven by diabetes prevalence 26% market share in diabetes care and expanding leadership position 49% insulin volume market share with leadership position across all regions 46% modern insulin volume market share 68% GLP-1 value market share and expanding leadership position The only company with a full portfolio of novel insulin products GLP-1 portfolio offers expansion opportunity within type 1 and 2 diabetes IDegLira supports promising outlook for insulin and GLP-1 combination therapy Liraglutide holds potential within the treatment of obesity Promising pipeline within biopharmaceuticals Note: MAT January 2013 value and volume figures Source: IMS

19 Slide 19 Investor contact information Share information Novo Nordisk s B shares are listed on the stock exchange in Copenhagen under the symbol NOVO B. Its ADRs are listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol NVO. For further company information, visit Novo Nordisk on the internet at: novonordisk.com Investor Relations contacts Novo Nordisk A/S Investor Relations Novo Allé, DK2880 Bagsværd Kasper Roseeuw Poulsen Tel: (+45) krop@novonordisk.com Frank Daniel Mersebach Tel: (+45) fdni@novonordisk.com Lars Borup Jacobsen Tel: (+45) lbpj@novonordisk.com In North America: Jannick Lindegaard Tel: (+1) jlis@novonordisk.com