State of the Traditional Ad Agencies. Part of a Presentation Made to the IAB Agency Advisory Board December 3, 2013
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1 State of the Traditional Ad Agencies Part of a Presentation Made to the IAB Agency Advisory Board December 3, 2013
2 State of the Traditional Ad Agencies 1 Massive Movement to Digital Advertising 2 Traditional Agency Model is Threatened 3 New, Large, Innovative, Tech-Oriented Competitors 4 Changing Client Relationship Dynamics Strategic Impact for Traditional Agencies? 2
3 Secular Shift in Ad Spend to Digital U.S. Total Ad Spending ($ in Billions) U.S. Total Ad Spending Share $ % 90% 4.0% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 5.8% 5.2% 4.5% 4.0% 3.6% 3.2% 2.9% 9.9% 9.6% 9.3% 9.2% 9.0% 8.8% 8.5% $178.4 $ % 70% 24.7% 22.6% 20.7% 19.3% 18.1% 17.4% 16.6% $166.0 $ % 50% 17.1% 20.2% 22.5% 24.8% 26.8% 28.3% 29.2% $ % 30% 20% 38.4% 38.3% 38.9% 38.7% 38.4% 38.2% 38.6% 10% % TV Digital Print Radio Directories Outdoor Sources: emarketer, December
4 Tectonic Behavior/Media Shifts Underlie Digital Media 2000 (Website) 5% 2010 (ecrm, Website) 2015 Owned media 90% Paid Media (Advertising) 5% Earned media Growth of Social (PR, Word of Mouth) 80% Paid Media 13% Earned media 7% Owned media (PR, Twitter, Facebook, Blogs, video sharing) Growth of Mobile (ecrm, Website, Syndicated Channels, Content) 60% Paid Media 30% Earned media 10% Owned media (PR, Blogging, Video Sharing, Wiki, Bookmarking, Social Networking, Crowdsourcing, Co-Creation, Commenting etc.) Global Social Network Users (Million) 1,005 % of Global Internet Traffic 15% 373 1% 2007 Dec Dec 2012 Sources: Strategy Analytics; KPCB. 4
5 All Digital Channels Realizing the Value of Data Lies in the Ability to Personalize Consumer Experiences Still early in the evolution of key digital markets Offline vs. Online Commerce Rapid Growth in online data The Digital Data Universe: Personalization is playing an increasingly critical role in driving consumer acquisition and retention Personalization 23.3% 130EB (1) Marketing ecommerce 8.0% 40,000EB (1) Personalization 2012 Digital % of Ad Spend ecommerce % of Total Commerce Changing consumer behavior Sources: IDC Digital Universe Study, 2012; U.S. Census Bureau. (1) Exabyte= 1.1 billion gigabytes. Static Real-time Non-PC Channels emerging Data deluge challenging CMOs 5 Real-time, unique, monetizable = holy grail of digital marketing
6 Automation of the Marketing Process is at the Heart of Personalization Traditional marketing services capabilities are becoming increasingly automated Consumer data and use of it are inherent in all capabilities Tech replacing traditional services Traditional media buy RTB Ad Tech Direct Mail Focus Groups Online Surveys Market Research A/B Testing Broadcast Model Audience Model 6
7 Converging Capabilities in the Marketing Automation Ecosystem Database Marketing (3) Attribution (2) Web Analytics (3) Mobile Marketing (8) Site Optimization (4) Marketing Automation Demand Side Platform (4) Social Marketing (18) Display/Search Retargeters (4) (8) Predictive Analytics (11) CRM (9) Personalization (4) 7
8 Key Threats to Core Traditional Agency Services Key Threats Emerging Competitors Key Thoughts Creative Increased measurability and targeting capabilities Multichannel creative applicability and execution Vertical Oriented Solutions Mobile Oriented Solutions Multi-channel integration New angles in mobile, social, and ecommerce Integration with ad measurement platforms Production Efficient offshore models Enable large scale production, driving revenue, at low cost Develop in-house offshore teams, e.g. Digitas/Publicis 8
9 Key Threats to Core Traditional Agency Services (cont d) Key Threats Emerging Competitors Key Thoughts Media Buying Managed service technology providers DSPs, DMPs and other ad tech tools Ad Tech moving upstream, forging relationships directly with agency clients Media buying agency claims face dramatic upheaval The commoditization of DSPs Agency trading desks must build proprietary buying tech in order to compete DMP begin to supply research -enabled RTB Market Research Cheaper, real-time data collection Plentiful peer reviews and social media Online surveys replacing traditional focus groups Social media ( likes ) becoming a proxy for survey data 9
10 Valuation Perspective of Key Competitive Groups
11 Overview of Key Competitive Groups Traditional Agency Database Marketing Market Research Ad Tech Digital Marketing Internet Titans 11
12 Summary Valuation Matrix Sector Size ($mm) Valuation Operating Metrics Price Performance 2013E 2013E 2013E 2013E E Market Cap 2013E 2013E EBITDA EV/ EV/ EBITDA P/E EBITDA Margin CAGR Growth Since 2009 YTD Traditional Agency Median $9,669 $8,357 $ x 11.0x 19.3x 15.5% 6.5% 4.3% 257.4% 43.3% Database Marketing Median $2,468 $2,008 $ x 12.2x 27.9x 18.7% 0.1% (1.5%) 314.4% 29.5% Market Research Median $1,855 $2,072 $ x 9.1x 24.3x 14.6% 6.2% 2.4% 95.5% 37.1% Ad Tech (1) Median $290 $157 ($3) 2.42x 38.9x NM 5.5% 99.3% 34.1% NM (8.8%) Digital Marketing Median $806 $301 $ x 8.9x 52.3x 14.9% 27.9% 13.2% 144.9% 26.9% Internet Titans Median $91,001 $11,847 $4, x 23.6x 30.3x 33.9% 28.5% 20.7% 207.8% 53.8% Overall Mean $25,962 $7,397 $1, x 14.6x 96.7x 19.4% 21.9% 17.3% 336.1% 39.5% Median 2,021 1, x 11.7x 24.5x 15.5% 9.3% 8.5% 209.3% 41.8% Source: Capital IQ; Company filings. Note: Only includes positive multiples below 20x for, 100x for EBITDA and P/E. (1) 2009 revenue data only available for one Ad Tech company. 12
13 Traditional Agency Valuation Details Company Size ($mm) Valuation Operating Metrics Price Performance 2013E 2013E 2013E 2013E E Market Cap 2013E 2013E EBITDA EV/ EV/ EBITDA P/E EBITDA Margin CAGR Growth Since 2009 YTD Dentsu Inc. $12,166 $21,482 $1, x 13.5x 28.5x 4.8% 8.2% (5.5%) 116.8% 59.4% Havas 3,217 2, x 9.9x 17.7x 16.1% 4.3% 3.1% 282.4% 42.0% The Interpublic 7,172 7, x 9.3x 19.5x 12.5% 5.0% 2.3% 301.6% 47.8% Lamar Advertis 4,681 1, x 12.5x NM 42.7% 3.9% 5.5% 252.0% 23.8% MDC Partners 1,110 1, x 11.0x NM 13.7% 25.9% 9.0% % 233.9% Omnicom Group 18,525 14,573 2, x 10.0x 19.1x 14.9% 6.7% 2.5% 150.1% 37.5% Publicis Groupe 18,790 9,596 1, x 11.2x 18.8x 18.3% 10.4% 10.1% 228.9% 41.6% WPP plc 29,479 18,186 3, x 11.0x 22.7x 17.3% 6.3% 7.9% 262.7% 44.5% Mean $11,892 $9,473 $1, x 11.1x 21.1x 17.5% 8.8% 4.4% 331.4% 66.3% Median 9,669 8, x 11.0x 19.3x 15.5% 6.5% 4.3% 257.4% 43.3% Source: Capital IQ; Company filings. Note: Only includes positive multiples below 20x for, 100x for EBITDA and P/E. 13
14 Database Marketing and Market Research Valuation Details Company Size ($mm) Valuation Operating Metrics Price Performance 2013E 2013E 2013E 2013E E Market Cap 2013E 2013E EBITDA EV/ EV/ EBITDA P/E EBITDA Margin CAGR Growth Since 2009 YTD Database Marketing Acxiom $2,468 $1,093 $ x 12.2x 49.7x 18.7% 0.1% (1.5%) 314.4% 81.2% Alliance Data 11,688 4,311 1, x 14.5x 35.1x 31.7% 22.8% 18.4% 409.1% 62.6% Experian 18,260 4,879 1, x 13.0x 23.5x 34.2% 7.1% 4.3% 185.2% 9.7% Harte-Hanks In x 7.0x 27.9x 11.7% (3.7%) (19.1%) 19.8% 29.5% Valassis Comm 1,109 2, x 6.0x 10.5x 13.1% (1.2%) (7.1%) % 10.1% Mean $6,802 $2,582 $ x 10.5x 29.4x 21.9% 5.0% (1.0%) 589.1% 38.6% Median 2,468 2, x 12.2x 27.9x 18.7% 0.1% (1.5%) 314.4% 29.5% Market Research comscore $955 $285 $ x 15.5x NM 20.2% 25.9% 11.8% 111.5% 91.0% gfk 2,077 2, x 8.8x 29.0x 14.6% 6.2% 3.7% 95.5% 12.0% Harris Interacti x 8.5x 18.2x 8.4% (5.5%) (0.7%) 216.3% 52.3% ipsos 1,855 2, x 9.1x NM 12.5% 20.4% 1.3% 49.8% 7.0% nielsen 16,150 5,725 1, x 13.9x 24.3x 28.2% 5.2% 2.4% 84.7% 37.1% Mean $4,231 $2,122 $ x 11.2x 23.8x 16.8% 10.4% 3.7% 111.6% 39.9% Median 1,855 2, x 9.1x 24.3x 14.6% 6.2% 2.4% 95.5% 37.1% Source: Capital IQ; Company filings. Note: Only includes positive multiples below 20x for, 100x for EBITDA and P/E. 14
15 Digital Marketing and Ad Tech Valuations Company Size ($mm) Valuation Operating Metrics Price Performance 2013E 2013E 2013E 2013E E Market Cap 2013E 2013E EBITDA EV/ EV/ EBITDA P/E EBITDA Margin CAGR Growth Since 2009 YTD Ad Tech Criteo SA $1,965 $591 $ x 53.0x NM 6.2% NM 64.8% NM 14.5% Marin Software (26) 2.42x NM NM NM 99.3% 28.9% NM (36.2%) Rocket Fuel Inc 1, (3) 5.86x NM NM NM NM 117.3% NM 52.7% Tremor Video, (3) 0.95x NM NM NM NM 19.3% NM (56.0%) YuMe, Inc x 24.7x NM 4.8% NM 34.1% NM (8.8%) Mean $835 $236 $2 2.73x 38.9x NM 5.5% 99.3% 52.9% NM (6.8%) Median (3) 2.42x 38.9x NM 5.5% 99.3% 34.1% NM (8.8%) Digital Marketing Bankrate, Inc. $1,835 $455 $ x 16.5x NM 25.8% 51.5% (0.5%) NM 42.4% Constant Conta x 15.2x 86.9x 16.1% 25.0% 13.2% 87.4% 76.7% Marketo, Inc. 1, (31) 11.28x NM NM NM NM 61.5% NM 135.9% Millennial Medi x NM NM 0.7% 122.1% 48.7% NM (52.1%) QuinStreet, Inc x 8.1x NM 13.7% 3.9% (8.7%) NM 26.9% ReachLocal, In x 8.9x NM 5.6% 30.9% 13.4% NM (8.1%) ValueClick, Inc 1, x 7.3x 17.6x 38.3% 16.1% (13.2%) 202.4% 9.7% Mean $933 $356 $ x 11.2x 52.3x 16.7% 41.6% 16.4% 144.9% 33.1% Median x 8.9x 52.3x 14.9% 27.9% 13.2% 144.9% 26.9% Source: Capital IQ; Company filings. Note: Only includes positive multiples below 20x for, 100x for EBITDA and P/E. 15
16 Internet Titans Valuation Details Company Size ($mm) Valuation Operating Metrics Price Performance 2013E 2013E 2013E 2013E E Market Cap 2013E 2013E EBITDA EV/ EV/ EBITDA P/E EBITDA Margin CAGR Growth Since 2009 YTD Amazon $179,569 $74,929 $5, x 34.8x x 6.7% 35.6% 22.6% % 49.9% ebay 66,478 16,072 5, x 11.2x 24.7x 33.6% 17.3% 14.2% 254.4% (3.0%) Facebook 115,524 7,621 4, x 23.7x NM 59.0% 87.1% 49.8% 23.1% 67.0% Google 352,288 59,598 21, x 14.2x 28.9x 36.1% 28.5% 18.8% 230.2% 46.7% Twitter 22, x NM NM 7.8% NM 101.2% 59.9% 57.7% Yahoo 37,544 4,442 1, x 23.6x 31.7x 34.1% (8.3%) (10.9%) 185.4% 82.7% Mean $128,936 $27,217 $6, x 21.5x 371.3x 29.6% 32.0% 32.6% 382.5% 50.2% Median 91,001 11,847 4, x 23.6x 30.3x 33.9% 28.5% 20.7% 207.8% 53.8% Source: Capital IQ; Company filings. Note: Only includes positive multiples below 20x for, 100x for EBITDA and P/E. 16
17 Value Accretes to Digital Technologies Enterprise Value ($ billions) $400 $300 $200 $100 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $5 $1$0 0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 10.0x 12.0x 2013E Multiple 15.0x 2013E Multiple Source: Capital IQ; Company filings. Note: Only includes positive multiples below 20x for, 100x for EBITDA and P/E. 17 Legend Trad. Agencies Database Marketing Market Research Ad Tech Digital Marketing Internet Titans 25.0x 35.0x 45.0x
18 The Picture is Clearer Without Internet Titans Legend Trad. Agencies Database Marketing Market Research Ad Tech Digital Marketing Source: Capital IQ; Company filings. Note: Only includes positive multiples below 20x for, 100x for EBITDA and P/E. 18
19 How to Effect Strategic Value through M&A
20 Big Four M&A Strategy Overview Minimal M&A Modest M&A Significant M&A, especially large digital (2012) agencies Ad strategy and production Price Undisclosed (2008) Web development and design Price Undisclosed Digital marketing Price Undisclosed (2010) (2007) Branding agency $79 mm Australian marketing communications $136 mm Fleet graphics and signage $133mm (2011) (2011) Online Market Research $100mm* (2007) (2013) Digital agency $582mm 1.9x LTM 12.0x LTM EBITDA (2011) Digital agency $575mm 2.7x LTM (2009) Digital agency $530mm 1.4x LTM (2007) Digital agency $1.3 bn 1.6x LTM 20.2x LTM EBITDA Most consistent M&A execution Mix of large strategic deals & smaller digital agencies (2012) Digital agency $540mm 2.9x LTM (2008) Market Research $3.0bn 1.4x LTM 11.0x LTM EBITDA (2007) Digital marketing tech $540mm 3.0x LTM 128.8x LTM EBITDA *Rumored deal value 20
21 $35.1 Billion Omnicom / Publicis Merger Deal Rationale A merger of equals that will create the world s largest ad holding company Consolidation will combine resources in growth opportunities such as the utilization of data, digital technologies and emerging markets Combined company better equipped to compete with digital giants Google, Facebook, Yahoo, etc. Economies of scale and synergies will lead to more competitive pricing for clients Research Response Publicis and Omnicom shareholders benefit because of cost synergies that we expect to be larger than the impact of potential client losses. Barclays 7/28/13 Near-term expenses associated with the deal will negate any immediate benefit, longer-term cost reductions should enhance earnings growth. J.P. Morgan 7/29/13 Stock Price Performance Since Announcement Relative Scale 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% (5%) LTM ($ billions) $23 $21 $16 $14 $9 $7 $2 (10%) Date 30-Jul Aug Sep Oct-13 Merger Announced Source: Capital IQ, company research and filings. 21 * Pro forma revenue based on sum of Omnicom and Publicis LTM revenues pre-merger.
22 Companies Successfully Effecting Strategic Value Building targeted Ad Stack solution (2012) Social media marketing $450mm Ad exchange $400 mm (2011) (2010) Mobile ad network $750mm (2010) Building marketing services powerhouse (2012) Broad digital marketer $460mm 9.0x LTM EBITDA (2011) Private marketer $345mm 1.4x LTM (2006) Data analytics provider (unit of DoubleClick) $435mm (2005) (2006) Building innovative execution capabilities (2013) ecommerce IT and Digital Marketing $285mm 2.0x LTM 13.9x LTM EBITDA Digital production Price Undisclosed (2012) Internal transformation of company under digital-centric leadership New CEO, Scott Howe, in July 2011 background Premiered Acxiom Audience Operating System in July 2013 Integrated data collection and marketing platform with huge potential (2013) Ad server $3.1bn (2007) (2004) Integrated direct marketing provider ~$300mm 22
23 Select Top Industry M&A of 2013YTD ($ in Millions) Implied Enterprise Value to LTM Date Acquirer Target Size (1) EBITDA Jul 28 Jun 04 Aug 12 Aug 07 Sep 09 Aug 13 Oct 30 Nov 25 Feb 26 May 20 (Merger of Equals) (TV & Ad Distribution Unit) $20, x 9.7x 2, x NM NA NA NA NA NA NA x 13.9x x NM NA NA x 8.7x x NA Source: Capital IQ, company research and filings. (1) Implied enterprise value. 23
24 Private Equity Continues to be Active Buyers Real competitive buyer threat to traditional Ad holding acquisition deal structure Highly successful historical exits continued interest in building the next one Recent Gridley transactions highlight interest in building highly vertical / specialized capabilities 24
25 Advice for the Audience
26 The Threat of Next Generation Technologies is Across All Large End Markets Traditional Ad Agencies vs. Ad Tech Traditional Media vs. Social Networks Retail vs. ecommerce Emerging Companies vs. Traditional Big Data Sources: Capital IQ. 26
27 The Technology Disruption Threat to Traditional Agencies is Real and is Just Beginning Enterprise Value ($ billions) $400 $300 $200 $100 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $5 $1$0 0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 10.0x 12.0x 2013E Multiple 15.0x 2013E Multiple Source: Capital IQ; Company filings. Note: Only includes positive multiples below 20x for, 100x for EBITDA and P/E. 27 Legend Trad. Agencies Database Marketing Market Research Ad Tech Digital Marketing Internet Titans 25.0x 35.0x 45.0x
28 Quick Gridley Commercial
29 Gridley Overview Gridley & Company LLC, a New York-based boutique investment bank, provides advisory services to companies in the Information Services industry Gridley & Company LLC Leading Boutique Strong Reputation Sharp focus provides clients with valuable strategic insights and perspectives Specialize in Internet Services, Digital Media & Marketing Services, Data Services, Financial Technology, and SaaS & Outsourcing Services Founded in 2001 Headquartered in New York, NY Strong industry reputation on assignments led by senior bankers Experienced, bulge-bracket trained M&A bankers The A Team Trusted Advisor Thoughtful ideas not just logical combinations Deliver value to buyers, sellers, and investors alike Broad industry network developed over 25+ years with industry leaders, emerging growth companies, and senior investors 2013 Gridley & Company LLC 29
30 12+ Years of Strategic Thought Leadership Quarterly Publications Industry Guides Frequent Industry Speaker Annual Gridley Hosted Events Highly respected newsletter about industry trends and corporate finance / M&A activity January Conference In-depth review of the digital NY ecosystem, including recent startups and the firms investing in them Summer Networking Event & Golf Outing 2013 Gridley & Company LLC 30
31 Host of Leading Annual Industry Conference for 13 years Bellwether event focused on our targeted industries Approximately 500 senior-level executives from over 300 companies Differentiated audience and participants vs. other conferences Highly personalized with Gridley arranged 1-on-1 s for clients, presenters, sponsors Presentations by approximately 40 private companies and industry panels addressing timely topics January 14, 2014 The Westin New York Grand Central (Invitation Only) 2013 Gridley & Company LLC 31
32 Event History Track Record of Finding Highly Successful Companies Early 218 private companies have presented since 2004 Over 70% have completed liquidity transactions Selected Past Conference Presenters 2013 Gridley & Company LLC 32
33 Selected Recent Gridley Transactions Gridley clients include industry leaders and premier emerging growth companies Acquired by Match Marketing Group 2013 Gridley & Company LLC 33
34 Selected Recent Gridley Transactions cont Gridley & Company LLC 34
35 QUESTIONS? Linda Gridley President & CEO Pratik Patel Managing Director Gridley & Company LLC 10 East 53 rd Street, 24 th Floor New York, NY tel fax
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