INVESTOR PRESENTATION & SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION UNAUDITED THIRD QUARTER 2015

Transcription

1 INVESTOR PRESENTATION & SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION UNAUDITED THIRD QUARTER 2015

2 LEGAL NOTICES This presentation, together with other statements and information publicly disseminated by STAG Industrial, Inc. (the Company ), contains certain forward looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. The Company intends such forward looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and includes this statement for purposes of complying with these safe harbor provisions. Forward looking statements, which are based on certain assumptions and describe the Company's future plans, strategies and expectations, are generally identifiable by use of the words "believe," "will," "expect," "intend," "anticipate," "estimate," should, "project" or similar expressions. You should not rely on forwardlooking statements since they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that are, in some cases, beyond the Company's control and which could materially affect actual results, performances or achievements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations include, but are not limited to, the risk factors discussed in the Company s Annual Report on Form 10 K for the year ended December 31, 2014, as updated by the Company s subsequent reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Accordingly, there is no assurance that the Company's expectations will be realized. Except as otherwise required by the federal securities laws, the Company disclaims any obligation or undertaking to publicly release any updates or revisions to any forwardlooking statement contained herein (or elsewhere) to reflect any change in the Company s expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. This presentation discusses information that meets the definition of non GAAP financial measure set forth in Regulation G promulgated by the SEC. None of these measures should be considered as an alternative to net income or other financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP. Some of the non GAAP financial measures in this presentation are based on the Company s definitions and internal financial information. Those definitions, as well as reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measure, are in the accompanying supplemental materials. Other non GAAP financial measures are provided by SNL Financial or FactSet Research Systems Inc. and are based on their definitions and data they have collected, as indicated in this presentation. 1

3 PROPERTY PHOTOS Smithfield, NC: 191,450 SF Clear Height: 26 Year Built/Renovated/Expanded: 2001 Golden, CO: 227,500 SF Clear Height: 32 Year Built/Renovated/Expanded: 1999/2006 Springfield, OH: 350,500 SF Clear Height: 28 Year Built/Renovated/Expanded: 2001 Hampstead, MD: 1,035,249 SF Clear Height: 32 Year Built/Renovated/Expanded:

4 PROPERTY PHOTOS Warrendale, PA: 148,065 SF Clear Height: 32 Year Built/Renovated/Expanded: 1999 Garland, TX: 253,900 SF Clear Height: 30 (expansion) Year Built/Renovated/Expanded: 1968/1989 Louisville, KY: 306,000 SF Clear Height: 24 Year Built/Renovated/Expanded: 1978 Lansing, MI: 231,000 SF Clear Height: 34 Year Built/Renovated/Expanded:

5 COMPANY OVERVIEW OUR BUSINESS STAG Industrial, Inc. (NYSE: STAG) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on the acquisition, operation, and capitalization of a portfolio of single tenant, industrial properties located throughout the United States Founded in 2003, IPO in 2011 Goal of intelligently building a representative portfolio of the U.S. industrial market four years into a ten year business plan OUR PLATFORM Hybrid approach: Private Equity: Quantitative, probabilistic, cash flow approach to relative value Net Lease: Portfolio diversification mitigates risk and enhances returns Operating Company: Fully integrated, institutional asset management platform OUR RESULTS Grew industrial real estate portfolio an average of 37% per year (286% in total since IPO) Increased Core FFO per share an average of 9% per year (39% in total since IPO) (1) Delivered total shareholder return of 111% since IPO (2) (56% price appreciation, 55% dividends) (1) As of September 30, 2015; excluding Q (IPO partial period) (2) As of November 6,

6 COMPANY OVERVIEW SNAPSHOT (SEPTEMBER 30, 2015) Square Feet 52.1 million Number of Buildings / States 281 / 37 # Tenants / Average Internal Credit Rating 256 / BB Occupancy 95.7% Weighted Avg. Lease Term Weighted Avg. Rent 4.1 years $3.99 psf Common Equity Market Cap $1,303 million (1) Winston Salem, NC: 385,000 SF Clear Height: 40 Year Built/Renovated/Expanded: 1996 Total Enterprise Value $2,302 million (2) Investment Grade Credit Rating BBB / Stable Outlook Total Debt to Total Enterprise Value 37.4% Net Debt to Run Rate Adjusted EBITDA 5.0x Stock Price (close) (52 Week High/Low) $18.21 ($27.61/$16.66) Monthly Dividend (annualized) $ ($1.38) (3) Dividend Yield 7.6% (4) AFFO Dividend Payout Ratio (Quarterly) 86.3% El Paso, TX: 360,134 SF Clear Height: 28 Year Built/Renovated/Expanded: ) Based on closing stock/unit price as of September 30, 2015 of $18.21 and 71.6 million shares and units outstanding 2) As of September 30, 2015, Common Equity Market Capitalization of $1,303million plus $139million of preferred equity and total debt of $860million 3) Monthly common stock dividend for the first quarter increased by 0.7% to $ per share. The increased amount equates to an annualized dividend rate of $1.39 per share 4) Based on the September 2015 monthly dividend of $ per common share and closing stock price as of September 30, 2015 of $

7 INVESTMENT THESIS OBSERVATION Individual single tenant properties are persistently mispriced Binary risk creates high potential volatility in individual asset cash flows THEORY Through simple application of portfolio theory, risk can be changed Diversification mitigates risk while enhancing expected returns U.S. INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE (1) Large, stable, developed market Fragmented ownership Higher current returns, lower capital expenditures, and high retention compared to other real estate asset classes Non homogeneous assets with relatively low correlation (1) Source: CBRE EA Industrial Outlook 6

8 HYBRID PLATFORM INVESTING: PRIVATE EQUITY MODEL Focus on relative value Quantitative, probabilistic approach to valuation Link to probabilistic risk assessment model ( PRAM ) presentation: PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION: NET LEASE MODEL PRIVATE EQUITY NET LEASE Diversification as an efficient risk mitigant (portfolio theory) Minimize correlation across assets Efficient portfolios are worth more than individual assets OPERATING COMPANY OPERATION: OPERATING COMPANY MODEL Long term value of assets as recurring cash flow generators beyond the initial lease term & tenant Fully integrated, institutional asset management platform 7

9 OPPORTUNITY SET LARGE TARGET MARKET $1 TRILLION TOTAL INDUSTRIAL MARKET (1) STAG TARGET MARKET $250 BILLION TARGET MARKET (1) STAG'S SHARE OF TARGET MARKET IS LESS THAN 1% HISTORICALLY ATTRACTIVE ASSET CLASS TOTAL RETURN & STANDARD DEVIATION BY ASSET CLASS: (2) TOTAL RETURN & STANDARD DEVIATION BY ASSET CLASS: (2) TOTAL RETURN STANDARD DEVIATION TOTAL RETURN STANDARD DEVIATION 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 10.2% 9.7% 9.8% 10.4% 9.8% 4.8% 6.9% 4.8% 4.2% 5.3% INDUSTRIAL HOTEL APARTMENT RETAIL OFFICE 12.4% 11.1% 12.4% 10.7% 9.4% (1) Based on STAG management s estimates using publicly available data on industrial square footage in the United States and an assumed value per square foot (2) Source: NCREIF data as of September 30, % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1.1% 1.8% 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% INDUSTRIAL HOTEL APARTMENT RETAIL OFFICE 8

10 PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW BUILDINGS BUILDING TYPE SQUARE FOOTAGE ANNUALIZED BASE RENTAL REVENUE (1) BUILDING TYPE # of BUILDINGS AMOUNT % OCCUPANCY AMOUNT % Warehouse / Distribution ,429, % 95.7% $168,983, % Light Manufacturing 50 5,562, % 98.6% 20,671, % Flex / Office 21 1,148, % 78.4% 9,506, % TOTAL ,141, % 95.7% $199,161, % PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS INDUSTRIAL ASSETS AVERAGE SIZE (000 SF) (2) AVERAGE AGE (YEARS) (3) AVERAGE CLEAR HEIGHT (FEET) (3) TRNO REXR FR EGP DCT PLD STAG DRE 0 DRE DCT EGP PLD FR STAG TRNO REXR 0 REXR TRNO EGP FR DCT STAG PLD DRE (1) Key financial measures defined in Definitions section (2) Source: Company filings and SNL (3) Source: CoStar database and STAG internal data 9

11 INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY (1) INDUSTRIAL DEMAND (1) Square Feet 000,000s COMPLETIONS NET ABSORPTION AVAILABILITY 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Availability % Index from June GDP INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INVENTORY LEVELS Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 OCCUPANCY AND RENT GROWTH 94% WAREHOUSE OCCUPANCY (2) 1.20 WAREHOUSE RENT GROWTH (INDEX: 2005 = 1) (2) 92% 90% 88% 86% % % 80% "SUPER" PRIMARY OCCUPANCY PRIMARY OCCUPANCY SECONDARY OCCUPANCY "SUPER" PRIMARY RENT GROWTH PRIMARY RENT GROWTH SECONDARY RENT GROWTH (1) Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Federal Reserve, and CBRE (2) Source: CBRE; Super Primary markets include Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, Miami, Northern New Jersey, and Riverside; Primary markets contain greater than 200M SF; Secondary markets contain 25M 200M SF 10

12 PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW LOCATION BUILDING BY LOCATION SQUARE FOOTAGE ANNUALIZED BASE RENTAL REVENUE (1) BUILDING TYPE # of BUILDINGS AMOUNT % OCCUPANCY AMOUNT % Primary 54 10,564, % 99.7% $41,691, % Secondary ,806, % 94.6% 129,526, % Tertiary 56 7,769, % 94.7% 27,943, % TOTAL ,141, % 95.7% $199,161, % PORTFOLIO SQUARE FOOTAGE BY LOCATION (2) 100.0% 80.0% 29.0% 23.0% 20.7% 16.4% 14.9% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% 55.0% 60.0% 64.6% 63.4% 64.8% 16.0% 17.0% 14.7% 20.2% 20.3% Q PRIMARY SECONDARY TERTIARY (1) Key financial measures defined in Definitions section (2) See Location Classification in Definitions section 11

13 PROPRIETARY RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL OBSERVATION Real estate evaluation performed with imperfect information Arbitrary decision rules influence and ultimately hinder integrity of the investment evaluation process CONVENTIONAL CASH FLOW MODEL IS OVERLY SIMPLISTIC General absence of probability around future leasing events One dimensional treatment of tenant credit exposure Static inputs, no sensitivity analysis SOLUTION Probabilistic assessment of risk Probability adjusted cash flows Model requires inputs, distributions, and boundaries (standard deviations) Returns sensitized to arrive at expected value Focus on process rather than outcomes Thoughtful organizational structure Inputs derived across the organization / healthy tension across departments THOUGHTFUL SYSTEM & PROCESS FOR IDENTIFYING VALUE 12

14 ACQUISITION PROCESS SELECTIVITY DISCIPLINE 1,000+ TRANSACTIONS CONSIDERED All markets All building types All credit profiles All lease terms 350 UNDERWRITTEN 200 OFFERS MADE 43 CLOSED ACQUIRED $429 MILLION OF INDUSTRIAL ASSETS IN

15 PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION SINGLE ASSET FREE CASH FLOW SINGLE TENANT INDUSTRIAL ASSET ACQUISITION CASH FLOW ($000s) $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ NET OPERATING INCOME SINGLE TENANT INDUSTRIAL ASSET ACQUISITION CASH FLOW ($000s) $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ PORTFOLIO CASH FLOW 2014 ACQUISITIONS ($000s) PORTFOLIO CASH FLOW 2014 ACQUISITIONS ($000s) $50,000 $50,000 PORTFOLIO $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $ $ TEN YEAR PRO FORMA CASH FLOW EXAMPLE ($000s) TEN YEAR PRO FORMA CASH FLOW EXAMPLE ($000s) BUSINESS $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 EXTERNAL GROWTH INTERNAL GROWTH $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 EXTERNAL GROWTH INTERNAL GROWTH $200,000 $200,000 $100,000 $100,000 $ $ DIVERSIFICATION FROM PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION LEADS TO A DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT RISK PROFILE, ENHANCING EXPECTED RETURNS 14

16 VALUATION VALUATION COMPONENTS (000's except per share data) (1) Run Rate Annualized Cash Net Operating Income $186,404 Consolidated Debt $860,318 Preferred Equity $139,000 Total Shares & Units Outstanding 71,551 Annualized Monthly Dividend Rate (annual) $1.38 Portfolio Square Feet 52,141 VALUATION MATRIX IMPLIED NET CORPORATE VALUE CAP RATE SENSITIVITY (2) IMPLIED NET CORPORATE VALUE CAPITALIZATION RATE HYPOTHETICAL SHARE PRICE IMPLIED DIVIDEND YIELD PER SQUARE FOOT 5.00% $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $59.58 BUSINESS 6.25% $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $52.96 PORTFOLIO 7.00% $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $44.69 SINGLE ASSET 8.25% $ % $ % $ % $42.06 INDUSTRIAL PEER IMPLIED CAP RATE RANGE SIMPLE AVERAGE (2) NET LEASE PEER IMPLIED CAP RATE RANGE SIMPLE AVERAGE (2) STAG RECENT TRADING RANGE STAG INDIVIDUAL ACQUISITION CAP RATE RANGE LONG TERM ARGUMENT FOR CAP RATE COMPRESSION (1) As of September 30, 2015; Key financial measures defined in Definitions section (2) Wall Street research; industrial peers include DCT, DRE, EGP, and PLD; net lease peers include O, NNN, STOR, SRC, VER, WPC, and CSG 15

17 CAPITAL STRUCTURE LIQUIDITY SEPTEMBER 30, 2015 Debt Capacity (1)(2) Immediate Availability (1) $672 mm $479 mm DEBT, 37% COMMON EQUITY, 57% CASH FLOW COVERAGE Net Debt / Run Rate Adj. EBITDA Annualized (1) 5.0x Interest Coverage Ratio 4.6x LEVERAGE Net Debt / Total Real Estate Cost Basis 41.0% Debt / Total Enterprise Value 37.4% INVESTMENT GRADE CREDIT RATING Fitch BBB / Stable Outlook PREFERRED EQUITY, 6% SIMPLE, CONSERVATIVE, INVESTMENT GRADE BALANCE SHEET (1) See Definitions section (2) Inclusive of $100 million of senior unsecured notes closed December 1,

18 IMPACT OF POTENTIAL INTEREST RATE INCREASE EXISTING PORTFOLIO IMPACT ( ) Revaluation of existing portfolio due to increase in capitalization rates as cost of debt and equity rise (+) Increase in rental rates as inflation permeates the rental market 4.1 year average lease term (1) (+) Capital structure designed for rising rate environment All debt other than revolver fixed rate Long dated liabilities (6.5 years) (1) GROWTH MODEL IMPACT ( ) (+) (+) Cost of incremental debt and equity will increase Capitalization rates will increase STAG external growth strategy benefits from higher investment returns Higher leveraged competitors generally more sensitive to changes in interest rates ATTRACTIVE INTEREST RATE PROFILE (1) Weighted average maturity of outstanding debt as of September 30,

19 PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION # STATE ABR % (1) 1 Ohio 8.6% 2 Illinois 8.4% 3 North Carolina 8.0% 4 Pennsylvania 6.3% 5 Texas 5.7% 6 Michigan 5.7% 7 Tennessee 5.1% 8 South Carolina 4.9% 9 Indiana 4.9% 10 Wisconsin 4.9% 11 Georgia 4.1% 12 Connecticut 2.8% 13 Florida 2.6% 14 Kentucky 2.6% 15 New Jersey 2.2% Other 23.2% Total 100.0% # TENANT ABR % (1) 1 XPO Logistics 2.7% 2 Deckers Outdoor 2.0% 3 Solo Cup 1.9% 4 Exel Logistics 1.9% 5 International Paper 1.5% 6 Generation Brands 1.3% 7 American Tire Distributors 1.2% 8 Perrigo Company 1.2% 9 Spencer Gifts 1.1% 10 Bank of America 1.1% 11 Armacell 1.1% 12 Closetmaid Corporation 1.0% 13 Schneider Electric 1.0% 14 CareFusion 1.0% 15 Cequent Performance 0.9% Other 79.1% Total 100.0% # INDUSTRY ABR % (1) 1 Air Freight & Logistics 11.8% 2 Automotive 11.8% 3 Ind Equip., Comp. & Metal 11.3% 4 Food & Beverage 9.3% 5 Containers & Packaging 9.1% 6 Retail 5.6% 7 Personal Products 5.5% 8 Household Durables 5.1% 9 Office Supplies 4.8% 10 Business Services 4.5% 11 Healthcare 4.5% 12 Building Materials 4.1% 13 Aerospace &Defense 2.5% 14 Technology 2.0% 15 Finance 1.8% Other 6.3% Total 100.0% EFFECTIVE PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION: MINIMIZE OUTCOME CORRELATION (1) Annualized Base Rental Revenue; key financial measures defined in Definitions section 18

20 SUMMARY OPPORTUNITY Persisting market inefficiency Large, stable asset class Fragmented ownership HYBRID PLATFORM Hybrid approach: Private Equity: Quantitative, probabilistic, cash flow approach to relative value Net Lease: Portfolio diversification mitigates risk and enhances returns Operating Company: Fully integrated, institutional asset management platform DEMONSTRATED GROWTH AND RETURNS Grew industrial real estate portfolio an average of 37% per year (286% in total since IPO) Increased Core FFO per share an average of 9% per year (39% in total since IPO) (1) Delivered total shareholder return of 111% since IPO (2) (56% price appreciation, 55% dividends) PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH & APPRECIATION Less than 1% market share in estimated $250 billion target market Valuation discount to comparable public REITs FOUR YEARS INTO A TEN YEAR BUSINESS PLAN (1) As of September 30, 2015; excluding Q (IPO partial period) (2) As of November 6,

21 DEFINITIONS 20

22 NON GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES & OTHER DEFINITIONS Non GAAP Financial Measures and Other Definitions Adjusted Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (Adjusted EBITDA): We define Adjusted EBITDA as net income (loss) (computed in accordance with GAAP) before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, property acquisition costs, gain on sales of rental property, termination income, straightline rent adjustments, non cash compensation, intangible amortization in rental income, loss on impairments and other non recurring items. Annualized Adjusted EBITDA: We define Annualized Adjusted EBITDA as Adjusted EBITDA multiplied by four. Annualized Adjusted Run Rate EBITDA: We define Annualized Adjusted Run Rate EBITDA as Annualized Adjusted EBITDA plus incremental Adjusted EBITDA on an annualized basis related to acquisitions acquired in each quarter for which a full quarter s results were not reflected less Adjusted EBITDA related to the quarter s dispositions. Annualized Base Rental Revenue: We define Annualized Base Rental Revenue as the monthly base cash rent for the applicable property or properties (which is different from rent calculated in accordance with GAAP for purposes of our financial statements), multiplied by 12. If a tenant is in a free rent period the annualized rent is calculated based on the first contractual monthly base rent amount multiplied by 12. Capitalization Rate: We define Capitalization Rate as the estimated weighted average stabilized cash capitalization rate, calculated by dividing (i) the Company s estimate of year one net cash flow from the applicable property s operations stabilized for occupancy, which does not include termination income, miscellaneous other income, credit loss, or vacancy loss, by (ii) the acquisition price, as defined by GAAP. These capitalization rate estimates are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions and are not guarantees of future performance, which may be affected by known and unknown risks, trends, uncertainties, and factors that are beyond our control, including those risk factors contained in our Annual Report on Form 10 K for the year ended December 31,

23 NON GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES & OTHER DEFINITIONS Non GAAP Financial Measures and Other Definitions (continued) Debt Capacity: We define Debt Capacity as the aggregate undrawn nominal commitments under the Company s debt instruments. Funds from Operations (FFO), Core FFO, and Adjusted FFO (AFFO): We define FFO in accordance with the standards established by the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts ( NAREIT ). FFO represents net income (loss) (computed in accordance with GAAP), excluding gains (or losses) from sales of depreciable operating property, impairment write downs of depreciable real estate, real estate related depreciation and amortization (excluding amortization of deferred financing costs and fair market value of debt adjustment) and after adjustments for unconsolidated partnerships and joint ventures. Core FFO and AFFO exclude property acquisition costs, lease termination income, intangible amortization in rental income, consulting services fees and non recurring other expenses. AFFO also excludes non rental property depreciation and amortization, straight line rent adjustments, non cash portion of interest expense, non cash compensation expense and deducts recurring capital expenditures and lease renewal commissions and tenant improvements. GAAP: U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Immediate Availability: We define Immediate Availability as the amount of Debt Capacity the Company could borrow consistent with the financial covenants in its debt instruments. Location Classification: We define primary markets as the 29 largest industrial metropolitan areas, which each have approximately 200 million or more in net rentable square footage. We define secondary industrial markets as the markets which each have net rentable square footage ranging from approximately 25 million to approximately 200 million. We define tertiary markets as markets with less than 25 million square feet of net rentable square footage. 22

24 NON GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES & OTHER DEFINITIONS Non GAAP Financial Measures and Other Definitions (continued) Net operating income (NOI), Cash NOI, and Run Rate Cash NOI: We define NOI as rental income, including reimbursements, less property expenses and real estate taxes, which excludes depreciation, amortization, loss on impairments, general and administrative expenses, interest expense, interest income, corporate sub lease rental income, asset management fee income, property acquisition costs, offering costs, gain on sales of rental property, and other expenses. We define Cash NOI as NOI less straight line rent adjustments and less intangible amortization in rental income. We define Run Rate Cash NOI as Cash NOI plus Cash NOI adjusted for a full period of acquisitions, less termination income, and less Cash NOI from dispositions. Renewal Lease: We define a Renewal Lease as a lease signed by an existing tenant to extend the term for twelve months or more, including (i) a renewal of the same space as the current lease at lease expiration, (ii) a renewal of only a portion of the current space at lease expiration and (iii) an early renewal or workout, which ultimately does extend the original term for twelve months or more, but the renewal term commences before the lease expiration of their current lease. Retention Rate: We define Retention Rate as the percentage determined by taking Renewal Lease square footage commencing in the period divided by square feet of leases expiring in the period. Neither the Renewal Leases nor leases expiring include Temporary Leases or License Agreements. Temporary Leases/License Agreements: We define a Temporary Lease or a License Agreement as any lease that is signed for an initial term of less than twelve months; this includes short term new leases and short term renewal leases. 23