Engineering the future of communications

Transcription

1 Engineering the future of communications How engineering can help balance performance, security and innovation, and how the UK can champion the global superfast future

2 The IET The Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET) is a global organisation, with over 160,000 members representing a vast range of engineering and technology fields. Our primary aims are to provide a global knowledge network promoting the exchange of ideas and enhance the positive role of science, engineering and technology between business, academia, governments and professional bodies; and to address challenges that face society in the future. The IET is registered as a Charity in England & Wales (no ) and Scotland (no SC038698). For more information please visit The IET Communications Policy Panel The IET Communications Policy Panel is tasked by the Institution of Engineering and Technology with proactively identifying policy issues applicable to the communications sector and providing guidance to the IET Board of Trustees, members, Government and the public. It s members are Chief Technologists and their equivalents from across industry, academia and public sector organisations. The panel conducts most of its business electronically but meets with selected guests a few times a year at the IET in Savoy Place to review key topics. Some of these discussions form the basis for the annual meeting. For more information please visit 1

3 The Emperor s New Networks How engineering can help balance performance, security and innovation, and how the UK can champion the global superfast future? This is the sixth meeting in a series of successful annual briefings to discuss policy matters involving communications and the information economy. The purpose of this event is to bring you up to date with the thinking of top engineers about likely future developments in communications and to give you the opportunity to participate in a discussion of the likely consequences. The UK Communications infrastructure is increasingly vital for our daily lives, facilitating business, wealth creation and accessing services - in fact if an organisation is not accessible via the internet then many would assume they don t exist. The relentless growth in the use of both fixed and mobile communications has had many benefits but is presenting unforeseen challenges. The challenges are global with the traditional carriers struggling to carry the unprecedented data volumes without having to invest on a prohibitively large scale. At last year s meeting we were introduced to the concept of Demand Attentive Networks. These DANs, as their name suggests, adapt dynamically to the demand being placed upon them. This year we are going to hear about the demands that are going to be placed on networks by smart meters, health care, location/gps and TV. To meet these demands we need a more radical joined up approach across industry and the regulatory bodies. This event is being held by the IET Communications Policy Panel which provides guidance to policy-makers and Government. The Panel draws on the experience of some of the most knowledgeable and respected engineers in the field of communications from industry, academia and the public sector. Lord Broers Kt FRS FREng 2

4 Chairman s introduction Communications infrastructure is dynamic and increasingly vital for life and wealth creation - in fact broadband communications have effectively become a 4th Utility, with all the public expectations that status implies. Over the past 10 years the main benchmark for broadband networks has been ever faster data download speeds. This is driven by many new applications from ever-rising video performance (new smartphones have HD screens and new TVs SHD/4k) to the internet of things supporting healthcare for example. In the future this is not sustainable, particularly for wireless networks. The physical limits are close; there is only limited spectrum and raising base station density is problematic, both economically and socially. A key consequence is a rapid increase in the percentage of the population that have less performance than is needed for full participation in the new economy. Demand, especially from social media, the creative and TV industries is accelerating beyond the engineering. In this dynamic environment striking the right balance between performance, security and innovative economic growth requires a network that is smarter and more attuned and responsive to users needs. We see a unique opportunity for the UK communications community, with government support, to create a world-leading movement that will both enable new opportunities and secure a network better able to address future needs. We launched our vision last year which has gained ground with follow up meetings with government policy makers and Ministers. We christened this Demand Attentive Networks (DAN). With this increasingly interconnected world so a balance has to be chosen between issues such as privacy, high speed connectivity and industrial strategy. See This meeting will focus on the need for balance between: Network communications performance - delivering the appearance of unlimited capacity Security & privacy - ever more information about us is online - with great benefits but with rising need for vigilance Driving innovative economic growth - the e-economy is and will be a key source of growth, especially for the UK Engineering can improve the picture under each of these headings but there will still be a dynamic balance to be struck between them which needs to be decided in the public domain. It is the job of engineers to inform this debate but the debate itself needs to be much broader. To start this debate members of the IET Communications Policy Panel will briefly describe the issues in four case studies: 1. Smart Meters - Prof Rahim Tafazolli 2. Health Care - Dr Mike Short 3. Location - Prof Will Stewart 4. TV Issues - Chris Chambers Prof Will Stewart FREng CEng MIET FInstP 3

5 Smart Meters Smart meters are being widely installed, accompanied by smart home displays that will provide users with information about their current patterns of energy use and will avoid the inconvenience of manual meter readings and any need for estimated bills. Trials have shown that they can save a good deal of waste, not least by highlighting clearly those devices and behaviours that cause heavy energy use. As our energy system becomes more innovative, and our energy use becomes more informed, these smart meters will become key components of smart grid systems and smart appliance controls. With consumer consent, this will enable the use of some appliances to be flexed - smoothing peaks of demand that will save capital investment in networks and power stations, enable users to take advantage of time of day tariffs, and manage electricity network system loading in emergencies. Future loads such as electric vehicle charging and heat pumps are much larger than standard electrical appliances and are likely to integrate well with these new opportunities. These developments have great potential. They will be of benefit both to the user and to society at large - but it also involves information being passed from the household to energy supply companies and - in an aggregated and anonymised form - to energy network companies. Whilst the security of this information is being carefully addressed in the national smart meter deployment, there will be concerns for some people. Good systems engineering, together with highly effective consumer messaging, will be key to making the very best use of the national investment in smart metering facilities. In addition to the smart meters supplied under the Government s Smart Metering Programme, there are third party devices on the market ranging from clip-on home energy monitors to full home energy management systems. These will add a further dimension to the data security and privacy issues associated with the more detailed monitoring of our lives - although this is precisely the point of the technology. The electricity network could experience herding effects as possibly millions of customers respond automatically to pricing signals. The entry into the market of large players such as Google (which has bought the heating control company NEST) means that consumer behaviours could change rapidly and any disruptive effects on the electricity network will need to be studied and mitigated in collaboration with equipment suppliers and other parties in the wider electricity system. The IET has recommended the development of a System Architect function to ensure end to end engineering system integration of the smart electricity system of the future. For further information on the IET s System Architect proposals see Prof Rahim Tafazolli CEng FIET 4

6 Digital Health - more than Tablets? With escalating healthcare costs, growing numbers of older people and obesity, challenging diseases and new discoveries, how can the healthcare system transform and make best use of innovation and the latest digital technology? Smartphones, tablets, wearables, apps and the better use of online data are just some of the tools to be considered. Long term conditions may also require new approaches to integrated care, across typical health and social care boundaries. We already see digital technology playing a key role in some areas of healthcare but are we: Harnessing the best from connectivity, measurable devices, trend data, research, and digital skills? Tapping into new ways of internet based advice and its delivery? Using wearables and apps for more personal responsibility for healthcare and change modes of delivery? Dr Mike Short CBE FREng FIET 5

7 Location services We have all (nearly) always had some idea of where we are - but modern communications systems have improved this hugely. Our smartphone can tell us immediately how many streets away our destination is and where our friends are in relation to us. This is a benefit in many cases but the flipside is that the systems also know where we are. Some of this is obviously necessary, so that HeERO Project - courtesy of the EU for example, the mobile network knows where to route our calls. The emergency vehicle accident ecall system knows how locate the vehicle. You can use the find my phone function. However this knowledge of our lives also carries privacy implications. For the most part our location remains private except to police or emergency services or to people we specifically authorise - but this may not be the whole issue. We may have the right to conceal our movements, before an incident for example, but if the information is available in principle it may be hard in practice to conceal it without offering good reasons. If our partner/parent/ child wants the right to track our mobile handset how will we explain refusal? Modern smartphone handsets allow one to turn off location services but the network will still know, and record, your approximate location and you will lose access to a lot of useful information, from local weather to where to find a decent coffee. Increasingingly, more smart services will use this information in helpful and wealth-creating ways, from location-stamping photographs to listing the cheapest fuel in local garages. Such things are beneficial to life and wealth, but the loss of the veil of the pre-digital fog that used to conceal our movements carries long-term implications for the way we live. Will Stewart FREng CEng MIET FInstP Family locator: courtesy of Life360.com 6

8 TV issues TV and Radio has traditionally been consumed by dipping into channel based content broadcast streams so arranged to attract particular media demographic / content fit. As the technology and products developed, consumers could record content to time shift and retain programmes of choice from the channels as broadcast to suit viewing options. However, the way TV and radio content is consumed has been going through a revolution. In the UK the BBC launched iplayer (around Christmas 2007) and this was followed by other broadcasters and more recently by media providers and products such as Netfilix, NowTV, YouView, Amazon Prime, Blinkbox and Google Chromecast being examples of this expanding market. This revolution takes advantage of Broadband connectivity to deliver video on demand and media streaming to Internet connected products and also exploits the very low cost of storage now available to such devices. It is propelling the status of broadband provision into that of a basic utility in the public s eyes quite apart from its use for health, security, communication and information services. The effect of this is to drive the demand for broadband capacity ever higher over wider swaths of the UK and in turn drive the core trunk requirements toward current limits. As an example as just one service in this expanding area, BBC iplayer currently averages a peak around 10.7 million programme request a day with total monthly requests rising from 62 million in January 2009 to 315 million in January The bulk of this content is still consumed on PCs (35%) and tablets (22%) with 18% being consumed on mobiles and 16% on TV platforms (January 2014 figures). There are seasonal variations as can be seen in the table below. TV screen consumption is still currently dominated by Satellite (free and subscription), Cable and DTT platforms to a very large degree Millions of requests per month Requests for TV programmes Requests for Radio programmes Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09 Sep 09 Nov 09 Jan 10 Mar 10 May 10 Jul 10 Sep 10 Nov 10 Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12 Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13 Jul 13 Sep 13 Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Total monthly BBC iplayer requests across all platforms, since 2009 (courtesy of the BBC) 7

9 It is important to remember that BBC iplayer is just one of a growing number of media services in the entertainment area and on occasions, not the single largest demand of this type on the Broadband structure. Taken overall, BBC iplayer no longer exceeds the demand required by all other media service providers combined. We are already seeing more opportunities for interactive content with leads taken by the gaming industry as well as second screens used to deliver additional information and support, that are user managed views of content being viewed on the main screen. All this is enabled by broadband connectivity also providing the back channel to service providers and platforms. The future holds the strong likelihood of requiring the delivery of Ultra High Definition (4k) at 4 times the current HD bandwidth requirements and with higher frame rates, more audio options and greater colour depth added to the requirements; this will be a major challenge to deliver to consumers. Apart from the new UHD Blue-ray standards enabling optical disk distribution, broadband is likely to provide the first opportunity to deliver UHD to consumers who equip themselves with the new TV screens capable of showing this content. UHD TV screens are already on sale although not supporting higher frame rates as yet, will still drive demand as consumers invest. We are going to have to get much smarter at delivering content, using multiple platforms and paths invisible to the consumer in order to get to get the required content to the point of consumption in a timely and cost effective manner. We also have to continue to invest in driving communication technology boundaries in order to keep pace with the market and deliver the broadband utility service the UK will require in the longer term. Chris Chambers MIET AMIPS 8

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12 The Institution of Engineering & Technology Michael Faraday House Six Hills Way Stevenage SG1 2AY Policy Department policy@theiet.org This content can contribute towards your Continuing Professional Development (CPD) as part of the IET s CPD Monitoring Scheme. The IET (meeting held on 27 th November 2014) The Institution of Engineering and Technology is registered as a Charity in England & Wales (no ) and Scotland (no SC038698).