Wireless Broadband Traffic Forecast in Sweden

Transcription

1 Wireless Broadband Traffic Forecast in Sweden

2 Copyright 2015 Quantum-Web Ltd. All rights reserved. This research report is protected by international copyright laws and may not be redistributed, retrans mitted or disclosed, in w hole or in part, or in any form or manner, w ithout the express written consent of Quantum-Web Ltd. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this research report constitutes your agreement not to redistribute, retrans mit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained in this report (including any investment recommendations, estimates or tariff targets) prior to Quantum-Web Ltd's public disclosure of such information. The information herein (other than disclosure information relating to Quantum-Web Ltd and its affiliates) w as obtained from various sources and w e do not guarantee its accuracy. Quantum-Web Ltd makes no representations or w arranties w hatsoever as to the data and information provided in any third party referenced w ebsite and shall have no liability or responsibility arising out of or in connection w ith any such referenced w ebsite. 2

3 Table of Contents Executive Summary... 4 Current Wireless Broadband Market... 5 The average monthly wireless broadband traffic forecast The Wireless Broadband Traffic Forecast Conclusion... 9 About Quantum-Web

4 Executive Summary The Swedish wireless broadband market is booming due to the rapid development of LTE technology. The demand for wireless broadband services, which in terms of subscription has taken over both broadband and fixed line subscription, is intensive. The demand for broadband in your pocket drives the supply, operators are increasingly concerned about managing the traffic congestion on the wireless network and are considering various solution to offload the wireless traffic over the fixed network as the bearer. In this study, we analyse the potential wireless broadband traffic on the demand side. The demand is divided into two categories of residential and business customers. The number of business wireless broadband subscribers by the end of 2011 stood at million while the number of residential wireless subscribers was million in the same period. According to Quantum-Web forecasts, the number of business and residential wireless broadband subscribers will increase by 118% and 116% respectively to and million by The average monthly data traffic of business subscribers is less than 1 GB while the same average for residential subscribers is nearly three times higher (2.74GB). The average monthly data traffic will increase by 109% and 102% for business and residential wireless broadband subscribers boosting the total Wireless broadband traffic to a staggering figure of 537 PB by THE VOLUME OF THE SWEDISH WIRELESS TRAFFIC WILL BE EXCEEDING 513 PB BY BIG SCREEN DEVICES, AND NON BUSINESS SUBSCRIBERS ARE THE MAJOR FACTORS TO INCREASE THE WIRELESS TRAFFIC IN SWEDEN. 4

5 Current Wireless Broadband Market As it shown on the diagram1, based on the number of wireless broadband subscriptions released by Swedish Post and Telecom Authority (PTS), towards the end of June 2011, the number of Wireless broadband subscribers rose to 4,166,000, of which 1,906,000 are stand-alone subscriptions and 2,259,000 are bundled subscriptions. TeliaSonera has the largest market share in the wireless broadband market with 37% followed by Telenor, Tele2, Hi3g and Others. The volume of messaging and non-messaging data for the same period rose 92% to over 42 IB compared to the same time the previous year. This substantial growth is mainly generated by stand-alone wireless broadband subscribers who use dongle, PC cards and devices with embedded wireless broadband technology (Big Screen), followed by bundled voice and data users and voice and data users with no broadband. The last two categories are classified as Small Screen users. Diagram 1- Wireless broadband market in Sw eden, Q Source: Sw edish Post and Telecom Authority (PTS) Diagram 2- Wireless data usage per month by s mall and big screen in Sw eden, Q Source: Sw edish Post and Telecom Authority (PTS)

6 The Wireless Broadband Subscription Forecast There are many ways to segment the wireless broadband traffic and to build forecasting scenarios based on these segments. So far as this forecast is concerned and based on the wireless broadband market, we split the market into two segments: 1-Business Wireless broadband market 2-Residential Wireless broadband market According to our forecast, the total number of wireless broadband subscription will grow at CAGR of 16.7% to over 12 million by The number of wireless broadband subscription for business and residential will approach 2.9 and 9.5 million respectively. Diagram 3- Business and res idential Wireless broadband subscription, Source: Quantum-Web 6

7 The average monthly wireless broadband traffic forecast The monthly traffic for both categories have been segmented by big screen and small screen and post and prepaid. Different upward trends have been estimated for post and prepaid, big and small screen of business and residential customers. The business post-paid big screen monthly traffic was 3GB at the end of 2011 while the residential average post-paid big screen wireless broadband stood at 6GB per month. The overall residential traffic due to over growing mobility of residential clients and higher price sensitivity of residential segment toward the downward trend of big screen devices will increase slightly faster than the business segment bringing the average post-paid monthly traffic of big screen to nearly 10.87GB per month against 4.74GB of business customers. Diagram 4- Business and res idential big screen post-paid average monthly traffic, Source: Quantum-Web 7

8 The Wireless Broadband Traffic Forecast Based on our forecast, the total wireless broadband business traffic will account for approximately 12% of the total wireless traffic in Sweden by 2017 from 10% registered in The volume of traffic which went through the wireless network was 82.3 TB at the end of last year with around 90% increase compared to The total volume of Wireless broadband traffic in Sweden, according to our forecasts, will grow to 513PB in 2017 at a CAGR of 30%. Diagram 4- Business and res idential annual traffic, Source: Quantum-Web 8

9 Conclusion This report has emphasised the spectacular increase in wireless broadband traffic in Sweden from the demand side segmented by various categories to represent challenges to telecoms companies in Sweden. The main telecom operators with a series of strategic models in place l ike capping system, prioritising of business traffic to residential clients in certain geographical or time of day, offloading the wireless traffic through femtocell, picocell and hotspots to fixed network. Telecom operators based on their market reality have to make strategic decisions with a certain degree of risk to cope with thematic related to the wireless traffic. Quantum-Web will be available to assist telecom operators to develop the best strategy to enter, establish and grow their market share with minimum effort and investment. 9

10 About Quantum-Web Quantum-Web, founded in 2003, is an independent telecom quantitative research and consultancy firm specialised in Wireline, Wireless & Media market. Quantum-Web is the premier global provider of market statistics and forecasts market monitoring and tailored research & consultancy for the telecom industry. Quantum-Web helps professionals, business executives, and the investment community make fact-based decisions on market trend and pricing strategies. With over 150 covered countries across the globe. Quantum-Web provides strategic insights through quantitative analysis to help our clients to achieve their key business objectives in the telecom market. Quantum-Web Ltd. Elw ood House 42 Lytton Road, EN55BY, UK Phone: +44 (0) eb.com 10