Photovoltaic Innovation Landscape: A Global and Local Perspective

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1 Photovoltaic Innovation Landscape: A Global and Local Perspective Fatima Toor, Ph.D. Research Analyst Lux Research Inc. October 3o th, Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook

2 About Lux Research Helps clients find new business opportunities from emerging technologies in physical and life sciences Offers ongoing technology and market intelligence, as well as market data and consulting services Over 250 clients on six continents multinational corporations, investors, governments, and SMEs Global reach, with over 90 employees in Boston, New York, Amsterdam, Singapore, Shanghai, and Tokyo Combines deep technical expertise with business analysis to support strategic decisions Technology coverage Solar Components Solar Systems Grid Storage Mobile Energy Alternative Fuels Bio-based Materials & Chemicals Formulation and Delivery BioElectronics Agro Innovation Water Exploration and Production Advanced Materials Printed, Flexible, and Organic Electronics Energy Electronics Sustainable Building Materials Efficient Building Systems China Innovation 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 2

3 Agenda Photovoltaic Market Outlook Global PV Innovation Trends Near Term : Canadian Solar & Silevo Long Term: Solexel & Heliatek Texas PV Industry Landscape Manufacturers: Heliovolt & Nexolon America Research Institute: Center for Solar Energy Solar Initiatives by Texas Utilities: CPS Energy & Austin Energy Outlook 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 3

4 China, Japan, and U.S. will Drive New Installations in the Coming Years as Germany Dials Down Source: Lux Research 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 4

5 New Installations in Texas are Expected to Reach 200 MW in 2018 Source: Lux Research 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 5

6 Global PV Module Demand will be Dominated by Asia and Pacific Source: Lux Research 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 6

7 Crystalline Silicon Will Dominate the PV Module Demand Source: Lux Research 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 7

8 Module Over-Capacity will be Rationalized by 2015 Source: Lux Research 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 8

9 Q Investor Presentations Indicate Return of Double Digit Margins for Tier 1 Module Manufacturers 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 9

10 Agenda Photovoltaic Market Outlook Global PV Innovation Trends Near Term : Canadian Solar & Silevo Long Term: Solexel & Heliatek Texas PV Industry Landscape Manufacturers: Heliovolt & Nexolon America Research Institute: Center for Solar Energy Solar Initiatives by Texas Utilities: CPS Energy & Austin Energy Outlook 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 10

11 Cost, Efficiency, and Price are the Fundamental Drivers of the Photovoltaic Industry Price & Profit Margin Incentives & Demand Cost & Module Efficiency Source: Lux Research 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 11

12 PV Modules in 2030 Will be More Technologically Diverse Than Today Energy revolution by accelerated [technology] evolution is needed because given the high storage costs, PV needs to be at least two to three times cheaper than where it is today, for solar electricity generation and storage to become cost competitive to traditional sources of energy J. Poortmans, IMEC Source: Lux Research 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 12

13 Canadian Solar Technology Tier 1 crystalline silicon ingot, wafer, cell and module manufacturer, and PV project developer High efficiency selective emitter (SE), ELPS, HIT, IBC, and n-type cell design development - SE cells: 280 MW of 1.6 GW cell capacity ELPS cells: 120 MW - c-si ELPS + SE cell efficiency: 21.1% (lab) AC module development Strategy and Markets Target markets include Japan, China, India, Australia, US, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Saudi Arabia 51.6% of sales in Q were in Asia Lux Take: Positive High-efficiency cell technologies and increased project development business will help pad margins over the long-term Canadian Solar Efficiency Roadmap 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 13

14 Silevo Technology 156 mm x 156 mm n-type c-si high-efficiency solar cells named Triex with electroplated Cu metallization and tunnel junction oxide Claims industry's first 72 cell module with 355 W power output which enables BOS and labor cost reductions of $0.37/W Module efficiency is 18% to 18.5%; production costs at $0.95/W at 32 MW capacity in Hangzhou, China Strategy and Markets Currently raising $50 million in Round C to build a 200 MW facility in a new location in U.S., Eastern Europe, or Malaysia Lux Take: Positive Silevo is a strong competitor to SunPower and Panasonic in terms of technology and production costs Triex Cells have Lower Temperature Coefficient than Conventional mc-si Cells 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 14

15 Solexel Technology Develops thin-film superstrate (TFSS) epitaxial silicon (epi-si) solar cells with 21.2% efficient 156 mm X 156 mm champion solar cell Expects module costs to reach $0.62/W at 100 MW of production and $0.42/W long term at scale Strategy and Markets Targeting lightweight and flexible modules for initial penetration to maintain high margins Raised a total of $164 million; plans to ramp a pilot cell line in 2014, followed by a 100 MW cell facility in Malaysia while contracting out module assembly SunPower is a recent investor Lux Take: Wait and See Promising epitaxial silicon kerfless wafer technology with reasonable capex and low materials costs; will need to prove scalability Solexel s Epi-Si Module Manufacturing Process Flexible Epi-Si Cell 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 15

16 Heliatek Technology Develops vacuum-deposited small molecule bulk heterojunciton organic photovoltaic cells Verified 12% efficient cell at AM1.5 conditions with 1.1 cm 2 area on glass substrate; claims 10.5% small cell efficiency on PET Claims manufacturing costs of $10/W to $20/W Strategy and Markets Targeting building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), automobiles, and consumer electronics applications Company plans to sell semi-finished products to undisclosed partners who are glass, concrete, steel, polycarbonate, membrane, and car roof manufacturers Lux Take: Caution Costs are too high while efficiencies are noncompetitive to other thin-film PV technologies for BIPV applications Heliatek s p-i-n tandem cell Technology Partners 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 16

17 Agenda Photovoltaic Market Outlook Global PV Innovation Trends Near Term : Canadian Solar & Silevo Long Term: Solexel & Heliatek Texas PV Industry Landscape Manufacturers: Heliovolt & Nexolon America Research Institute: Center for Solar Energy Solar Initiatives by Texas Utilities: CPS Energy & Austin Energy Outlook 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 17

18 Over 280 Solar Companies at Work Across the Value Chain in Texas Source: SEIA 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 18

19 Heliovolt Technology Develops copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS) modules using a proprietary FASST process; utilizes less active material and has higher throughput than competitors Average module efficiency of 13.5%; claims module costs can reach $0.52/W at 100 MW production Current production capacity of 20 MW with expansions plans in 2014 Strategy and Markets SK Group invested $50 million in the company in 2011; August 2013 SK Group invested another $19 million Company has an exclusive licensing and technology partnership with NREL Participating in Pecan Street Project and Austin Energy s solar initiatives HelioVolt s modules are deployed at three U.S. DOE Regional Test Centers in Colorado, New Mexico, and Florida Lux Take: Wait and See Strong potential to reach high efficiencies and low costs for CIGS modules but will need strategic partners to penetrate utility and commercial markets FASST Process is 100 Times Faster than Conventional Metal Selenization 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 19

20 Nexolon America Technology Tier 1 ingot and wafer manufacturer with a capacity of 1.7 GW of which 1.1 GW is mc-si, and 0.6 GW is c-si; this capacity is in Iksan, South Korea Building a 200 MW cell and module manufacturing facility in San Antonio, TX in partnership with CPS Energy and OCI Solar Power at Brooks-City Base with 100 MW completed in Q N-type c-si solar cell efficiency target of 20% for 2014 and 0.5% improvement every year after that Planning to produce biacial solar modules in 2015; claims these modules will increase power output by at least 10% Strategy and Markets Nexolon America will be supplying its high efficiency modules to OCI Solar Power's solar farm projects under the 400MW PPA with CPS Energy Lux Take: Positive Nexolon will benefit from the growing U.S. PV demand and its partnership with a local utility, CPS Energy, and solar project developer, OCI Solar Power c-si and mc-si Ingots Pseudo-Square and Square c-si Wafers Conventional and Quasi-mono mc-si Wafers 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 20

21 Center for Solar Energy In July 25, 2013 Texas A&M University-Central Texas and the Center for Solar Energy (CSE) in Killeen, Texas announced the building of an 800-acre PV R&D facility in Bell County, TX CSE is estimated to cost $600 million once completed and will be a test site for over 100 PV technologies and will generate 50 MW of solar electricity for the university campus 50 MW solar field is being developed by PPA Partners, a full energy service company headquartered in Morgan Hill, California Center will also function as an incubator for solar entrepreneurs, aiming to shorten the prototype-to-marketplace cycle from 6-10 years to <2 years The Texas Advantage Texas is prime spot for a solar research and development center because of a strong network of academic institutions, and headquarters or large facilities of several chemicals and materials companies in the state due to it s relaxed tax laws 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 21

22 Solar Initiatives by Texas Utilities I CPS Energy of San Antonio, Texas is the largest municipally owned utility company in the U.S. CPS plans diversifying its generation portfolio to include 20% renewable energy In October 2013 CPS Energy and the San Antonio Economic Development Foundation (SAEDF) received a Silver Excellence in Economic Development award by International Economic Development Council (IEDC) for the energy provider s New Energy Economy initiative which has enabled OCI Solar Power consortium with three partners (Nexolon, ERCAM, and Kaco) committed to creating 800-plus, long-term jobs and $1 billion in economic development as part of a 400 megawatt solar energy deal Nexolon America constructing solar panel manufacturing plant in south San Antonio ERCAM Trackers manufacturing dual-axis trackers for solar facilities Kaco New Energy manufacturing inverters for solar facilities 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 22

23 Solar Initiatives by Texas Utilities II Austin Energy is the 8th largest public utility in the U.S. and as for April 2013 it has installed 11 MW of solar systems In October 2013, Austin Energy issued a Request for Proposals (RFP) for up to 50 MW of solar energy projects; it plans to introduce 200 MW of solar energy in its generation portfolio by 2020 AE has spent $6.65 million solar rebate dollars during FY 13 against a budget of $7.35 million In August 2012 Austin Energy and Heliovolt came together to install the first locally produced solar panels in Austin on the roof of the non-profit Yellow Bike Project AE installed a 12.4 kw solar system which will feed the 15.4 MWh annually into the AE grid and AE will pay the Yellow Bike Project $350 /year for the leased space This project is the first by AE to pilot and research leasing rooftop space from non-profit organizations and on commercial properties 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 23

24 Agenda Photovoltaic Market Outlook Global PV Innovation Trends Near Term : Canadian Solar & Silevo Long Term: Solexel & Heliatek Texas PV Industry Landscape Manufacturers: Heliovolt & Nexolon America Research Institute: Center for Solar Energy Solar Initiatives by Texas Utilities: CPS Energy & Austin Energy Outlook 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 24

25 Outlook Solar PV demand will continue to grow with Asia and Pacific dominating; U.S. demand will reach 10 GW/year by 2016 PV innovation across the value chain is necessary for i. module manufacturers to differentiate products and maintain sustainable profit margins ii. solar electricity to become cost competitive to coal and natural gas Texas solar manufacturers and research institutes will play an important role in the PV innovation landscape by developing low cost and/or high efficiency solar technologies Texas utilities will also play an important role to grow the local solar energy economy through solar rebates, leasing, and investment partnerships 2013 Annual SEMI Texas Fall Outlook 25

26 Thank you Fatima Toor, Ph.D. Research Analyst Lux Research Inc. +1 (617)

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