The Australian Mortgage Report 2015 Let the good times roll. Presentation to the Actuaries Institute James Hickey Partner, Deloitte

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1 The Australian Mortgage Report 2015 Let the good times roll Presentation to the Actuaries Institute James Hickey Partner, Deloitte

2 Records The Good ones Total outstanding residential housing finance $1.5 trillion (June-15) Monthly housing commitments (proxy for settlement flow) $34.7 billion (June-14) Interest rates record lows c4.45% DVR (Dec-14) Defaults and losses record lows <15bps impair. exp. (majors) Margins sustainable >220bps (majors); >15% ROE Technology advancements PEXA; e-docs settlement Competition Majors <70% lending 2014 The Not So Good Ones First Home Buyers crowded out Investor lending Property vs salary growth Geographic haves / have nots Competition <15% of lending 40% of settlements Gap growing Syd/Melb vs rest of Australia Majors vs non-majors 2 Australian Mortgage Report 2015 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

3 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Settlement Growth has accelerated since Dec 2010 Total Loans ($bn) 1,600 Residential Housing - up and to the right! Settlements ($bn) 40 1,400 Lending Settlements 35 1, , Australian Mortgage Report 2015 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

4 Home ownership is Australia s largest and one of its most important capital markets Frank Ganis (Macquarie Bank) The Australian residential real estate market is worth $5.7 trillion and its home loan value is worth $1.5 trillion Bill Armour (ANZ) 4 Australian Mortgage Report 2015 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

5 Existing borrowers and investors continuing to drive the market What categories of consumer will drive the greatest growth over the next 3 years? Primary Response (100% selected) Other responses SMSF investors First home buyers Refinancers / Upgraders Overseas investors Local Investors (non- SMSF) Source: Deloitte Mortgage Survey 5 Australian Mortgage Report 2015 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

6 % responses What is your biggest concern for the mortgage market in 2015? 100% Two answers selected 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% A B C D E A - Unsustainable housing price increases B - Possibility of macro-prudential limits on lending being introduced C - Increase in official interest rates D - Down-turn in economic growth E - Inappropriate lending issues arise bringing media and political spotlight on mortgage lending Source: Deloitte Mortgage Survey 6 Australian Mortgage Report 2014 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

7 One thing is clear, digital and data will be the main game for mortgages over the next three years. For lenders, brokers and consumers, the digital and data revolution will produce significant change in how we think of the traditional mortgage in the future 7 Australian Mortgage Report 2014 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

8 % responses How informed are consumers about mortgages now vs 3 years ago? 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% A B C D E A - Substantially better informed C - No change E - Substantially less informed B - Somewhat better informed D - Somewhat less informed Source: Deloitte Mortgage Survey 8 Australian Mortgage Report 2015 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

9 What features will be the most important to consumers in selecting a mortgage provider over the coming 12 months? Two answers selected 3 switching Product features (e.g. flexible repayments, etc.) Information and customer 2 service Technology enabled (innovation and 4 accessibility) 7 interest Competitive rates Source: Deloitte Mortgage Survey 9 Australian Mortgage Report 2014 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

10 # responses Where is the largest digital opportunity in mortgages in the next 2 years? 8 Two answers selected Straight Through Mortgage Leverage Customer Data Omni Channel Experience A B C D E F A - A straight through online mortgage B - Back office efficiency for lenders (improving response times and customer satisfaction) C - Reaching customers well in advance of the traditional settlement entry point D - Capturing, storing and using big data provided by customers to tailor offerings and processes E - Delivering an omni-channel experience for the customer F - Online comparators or other offerings emerging that disrupt traditional branch and broker sales Source: Deloitte Mortgage Survey 10 Australian Mortgage Report 2015 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

11 # responses What are the greatest challenges to innovation among the majors? 8 7 Two answers selected Technology Constraints A B C D E F A - Funding constraints B - Regulatory constraints C - Culture that is not supportive of innovation D - Technology constraints (eg multiple and incumbent systems) E - Organisational bandwidth available to implement innovation F - Scale of investment in existing business models 11 Australian Mortgage Report 2015 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

12 How can innovation be pursued while increasing margin? C B A The FinTechs Dilemma: Adopt and improve innovations after they have been proved by others Selective partnering with startups outside of the group A - Free up capital for innovation by increasing costsavings in other areas B - Take a long-term view and invest in innovation today with the expectation that margin will increase tomorrow C - Other (please specify) 12 Australian Mortgage Report 2015 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

13 I think digital is going to impact all of our businesses more dramatically than our generation understands We are a technology company that sells financial services. James Sheffield (CBA) 13 Australian Mortgage Report 2015 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

14 In summary.. Growth dynamics solid Existing borrowers to remain the source of most lending activity (upgraders/refinances) FHBs a structural issue - but they are innovating to get into the market (FHI s) Margins and performance to remain solid for majors But non-majors still challenged on margin sustainability and scale Technology is rapidly evolving and driving innovation and simplicity Omni-channel experience in the mortgage process needs to be a reality Digital will change the way mortgages are being offered for lenders and brokers How and when to access FinTechs will be key questions for majors 14 Australian Mortgage Report 2015 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

15 General information only This presentation contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or their related entities (collectively the Deloitte Network ) is, by means of this presentation, rendering professional advice or services. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your finances or your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. No entity in the Deloitte Network shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this presentation. About Deloitte Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. Deloitte provides audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. With a globally connected network of member firms in more than 150 countries, Deloitte brings world-class capabilities and high-quality service to clients, delivering the insights they need to address their most complex business challenges. Deloitte's approximately 195,000 professionals are committed to becoming the standard of excellence. About Deloitte Australia In Australia, the member firm is the Australian partnership of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu. As one of Australia s leading professional services firms. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu and its affiliates provide audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services through approximately 6,000 people across the country. Focused on the creation of value and growth, and known as an employer of choice for innovative human resources programs, we are dedicated to helping our clients and our people excel. For more information, please visit our web site at Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 2014 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

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