Research on Risk Assessment of PFI Projects Based on Grid-fuzzy Borda Number

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1 Researc on Risk Assessent of PFI Projects Based on Grid-fuzzy Borda Nuber LI Hailing 1, SHI Bensan 2 1. Scool of Arcitecture and Civil Engineering, Xiua University, Cina, Scool of Econoics and Manageent, Soutwest jiaotong University, Cina, Abstract: PFI projects, coparing wit traditional public projects, ave teir own particularity on bot establisent of risk syste and etod of risk assessent. Exactly te sae risk ay bring out entirely different effect to individual subjects. On te basis of analysis of project stakeolders, especially cobined te group opinions of tree ain stakeolders: governent, SPC, user (te public), subsequently, we put forward a ulti-viewpoints approac by eans of te fuzzy Borda nuber analytical etod based on grid-get. If te object to be evaluated consists of several proposed PFI projects, te result of ulti-viewpoints assessent can be used to rank te priority for decision-aking. On te oter and, if te object contains only single PFI project, owever, te assessent result reflects te risk level of te project. Keywords: PFI, Multi- viewpoints, Fuzzy Borda nuber analytical etod, Risk assessent 1 Introduction PFI (Private Finance Initiative) refers to, presently prevailed in developed countries, a new kind of adinistrative pattern for project construction by private capital participating in public investents. Since te pattern of PFI was first put forward by Britain in 1992, te doestic and foreign scolars ave ade researces on te relevant issues of it. Terefore, te ain acieveents provided by relevant references include four aspects as followed wit connotation of PFI, econoy analysis and assessents of PFI, adinistration and judgent of PFI, and syste construction of PFI [1]. However, on te aspect of adinistration and judgent of PFI, te risk anageent is always a ot issue studied by tose doestic and foreign scolars. At present, PFI in Cina still develops in a priary stage, and seldo are projects carried into practice. Before te project of PFI is approved by governent, tey need to consider any factors fro different viewpoints to deonstrate it feasibility objectively. Aong of tese factors, te risk of project ust be considered wen tey judge PFI project. It as any caracteristics suc as curiosity, long-ter, coplexity, ulti-levels and ulti-goals of stakeolders, wic deterine tat te PFI, coparing wit traditional public projects, ave its own particularity on bot establisent of risk syste and etod of risk assessent. For considering te sae risk to different subjects ay bring out different effect, so tis paper, fro te perspective point of tree ajor stakeolders governent, SPC, and users (public), is going to evaluate te risk of project in a ulti-view way to provide teory and etod for te teory study of PFI risk anageent and risk decision-aking. 2 Index Syste of Risk Assessent for PFI Project Te risk of PFI project can be divided into systeatic risk and nonsysteatic risk (to see table 1). Fist-level PFI Project Risk A Table 1 Index Syste of Risk Assessent for PFI Project Second-level Tird-level Fourt-level Systeatic risk Political stability D 111 B 1 Political risk C 11 Social syste refor D 112 Social stability and unity D 113 Legal risk C 12 Canges of industry and investent policy D

2 Nonsysteatic risk B 2 Financial risk C 13 Contingent risk C 14 Copletion risk C 21 Operation risk C 22 Market risk C 23 Sounding of laws and regulations D 122 Risk of interest D 131 Inflation D 132 Adverse weater condition D 141 Adverse scene condition D 142 Sortage of finance D 211 Risk of tecnique on design and ipleentation D 212 Out of control or deficiency of project organization and anageent D 213 Maturity of tecnology D 221 Sustainability of resource D 222 Sustainable supplying of energy and raw aterials D 223 Advance of anageent and experiences accuulating D 224 Profit fro investent of project D 231 Satisfaction of final user D Risk Assessent Model of PFI Project wit Grid-fuzzy Borda Nuber It is ainly public project to eploy PFI odel, wile te biggest caracteristic for public project success is to eet te deand of stakeolders. But as te ajor stakeolders of PFI project, governent, SPC, and users (public) ave a certain difference on judging te sae risk. Terefore, tis paper cooses te etod of fuzzy Borda nuber analysis based on te grid to confir te weigt of eac level in risk assessent of PFI project. Tis etod not only defines te ajor stakeolder of PFI project, but also, by epasizing te sequence of eac aong different stakeolders, akes te weigts confiring based on te priority relation of copreensive judging on iportance. It considers te ipacts on assessent of different stakeolders, collects te wole opinions of public and reflects te weigt objectively, so as to realize te ulti-viewpoints assessent on PFI risk. 3.1 Confiration of weigt Establisent of ierarcy structure Tat is to ake object disassebled into any eleents wic need decoposing furter until it can be assessable, and finally it as fored ierarcy structure fro up to botto wit disposal relation. M; Establisent of grid Grid etod, put forward by Kelly in 1955, is a odel of uan kind to judge and tink in personal construct teory. A grid is coposed of eleent and attribute. Te attribute of an eleent can be expressed wit a linear easure. Usually it adopts yardstick wit graduate of 1~5 to indicate (to see figure 2). Very iportant iportant less iportant coon uniportant Very iportant Uniportant Figure 1 Linear Measure Representation of Assessent Index Iportance Gain of relative weigt followed by single rules after analysis on grid It can be supposed tat B (D p ) is te score of te t attribute of D p (tereinto = 1, 2,, p = 1, 2,, N). Te steps to analyze grid wit fuzzy Borda nuber ave been sown as followed: ( i ) Confiration of ebersip (to see table 2) 494

3 Aong te assessent of te t attribute, it needs to work out te iportant ebersip U p of eac D p tat as been assessed, te coputing forula is following as: U p =B (D p )/ax{b (D p ) } (0 U p 1) (1) P Table 2 Coputing Value of Mebersip B (D p ) D p D 1 D 2 D N P 1 U 11 U 12 U 1N P 2 U 21 U 22 U 2N P M U M1 U M2 U MN (ii) Making out te table of fuzzy frequency statistic ( to see table 3) Table 3 Fuzzy Frequency Statistic D 1 D 2 D N 1 f 11 f 12 f 1N 2 f 21 f 22 f 2N N f M1 f M2 f MN R 1 R 2 R 3 M fp = ( Dp) p = 1 p = f p In te forula, if D p ranks at No. in te priority of te t attribute, ( ) δ U (2) R (3) δ =1; oterwise, δ ( ) Dp D p = 0. If D i and D j are te sae as te U p in te t attribute, and ten tey will rank at No. and δ +1 =1/2; if te priority relation of No. +1 respectively in priority relation, so ( ) δ = ( ) D i Dj D i,d j and D k are te sae as U p in te t attribute, and ten tey will rank at No., +1 and +2 in +1 δ + 2 =1/3; te rest can be deduced as entioned te priority relation, and ( ) δ = ( ) D i δ = ( ) Dj Dk above. (iii) Calculating fuzzy Borda nuber F B (D p ) If te Weigt nuber of te assessed D p ranking at No. in priority relation is Q, deeing tat Q = 1/2(N-)(N-+1), and ten fp F B( Dp) = Q = WpQ (4) R p (iv) Noralization processing, and gain of te relative weigt wit single rules N W p = FB( Dp) FB( Dp) / (5) p= 1 f p D p 3.2 Evaluating etod of botto (fourt) level By cobining te Delpi etod and fuzzy copreensive assessent, te evaluating standard can be establised (liited to space, oit ere). And according to te possibility of risk to appen and its consequence, it can be divided into five classes to risk: iger risk wit 90, ig risk wit 70, ediu risk wit 50, low risk wit 30 and lower risk wit 10. After ten, relevant experts will be asked to grade according to assessent criterion stated above. Finally expert s opinion will be collected, and it can be received te assessent score of te botto (fourt) level. 3.3 Confiration of copreensive score 495

4 By adopting te etod of linear weigt su to carry out te score of into upper level gradually to integrate, we, until, get te copreensive score of te first level. Te forula is followed by: 4 Exaple F = N ( Y p W p ) p= 1 Following discussion will apply te assessent odel built in tis paper to ake a copreensive assessent on te risk of tree PFI project planned to be built. 4.1 Weiging confiration of eac level Te design to syste of risk assessent on PFI project as finised establising ierarcy structure and confiring eleents constituted of grid. In order to get coplete grid, it needs to ake a judgent on te attribute of grid, and give te score of every s iportance released by relevant experts of representatives of governent, SPC and users (public). Take te tird-level for exaple, and te concrete nuber as been listed in Table 4. P Table 4 Score of Iportant Degree of Index B (D p ) D p Political Legal Financial Contingent risk C 11 risk C 12 risk C 13 risk C 14 Governent SPC User (public) According to forula (1), (2), (3), we can work out te statistical table 6 of fuzzy frequency. (7) Table 6 Fuzzy Frequency Statistic f p D p C 11 C 12 C 13 C Rp Based on forula (4) and (5), te nuber of fuzzy Borda and relative weiging of tird-level assessent as been calculated as followed: F B (C 11 )=1.27 F B (C 12 )=2.50 F B (C 13 )=4.83 F B (C 14 )=1.83 W C11 =0.12 W C12= 0.24 W C13 =0.46 W C14 =0.18 Te confiration of te rest of oter assessent of te tird-level and weiging of second-level and fourt-level all can be deduced by analogy as entioned above. To see table Confiration of copreensive score Second-level Systeatic riskb 1 Table 7 Partial Assessent Index of Tree PFI Project Relative weiging Tird-level Relative weiging Fourt-level Relative weiging Fourt-level Index value after quantifying Project Project Project A B C 0.47 C 11 D D D D D D

5 C 12 C 13 C D D D D D D D D D D D D Original data and quantitative data of partial botto-level ave been listed as table 7 about tree PFI project to be planned to build. Firstly, according to te forula (7), it need to work out te tird-level te value of political risk C = In te sae way, we can calculate and get te value of tree projects of legal risk C 12, financial risk C 13 and contingent risk C 14. Secondly, according to te way above, it goes to calculate second-level te value of systeatic risk B = In a siilar way, it can be calculated out te second-level te value of nonsysteatic risk B 2. At last, it can be got te copreensive value of risk assessents on tree projects according to te value and weiging of te second-level : = It can be seen fro te results of copreensive assessents tat te copreensive risk assessent of project A as got te top one wit 55.92, te next is project B wit and project C as got te lowest value Terefore, te project C sould be te prior project to coose. 5 Conclusion Tis paper as set up te syste of PFI project risk assessent. Based on te analysis of stakeolders, it as syntesized te wole opinions of tree ajor stakeolders governent, SPC, and users (public), realizing te ulti-viewpoints assessent on PFI project. At present, te pattern of PFI is in good condition to develop, and relevant teory is becoing te otspot to study, aong of wic te risk anageent is one of great aspect. Terefore, it is necessary and significant for us to discuss. Autor Biograpy Li Hailing, feale, Soutwest jiaotong University, aster, Lecturer, researc area: project anageent, Address: Scool of Arcitecture and Civil Engineering of Xiua University Cengdu Cina, References [1]. Hu Zen. Researc on te developent and governent control of PFI Industry in Cina. Xi'an University of Arcitecture and Tecnology,2007(in Cinese) [2]. WANG Yi. Tropis of Financing Cannels on PFI Construction of Water Supplying Works in 497

6 Cina.Water & Wastewater Engineering,2003(10):9~12 (in Cinese) [3]. Utterback JM, AbernatkyWJ. A dynaic odel of product and process innovation. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Manageent, 1988, 35(2) : 63~70 [4]. Yang Jiei,Si Bensan. Joining M etods in Group Appraising. Systes Engineering, 1992 (1) (in Cinese) [5]. LIU Xi-song, LI Yue, YU Deng-ke. Researc on Value Evaluation of Scientific and Tecnological Acieveents of Defense Industry Based on Multi- angle of View. Te Science of Science and te Science and Tecnology Manageent, 2007(5):31~35(in Cinese) [6]. SUN Bing. Te Weigt and Copreensive Evaluation on Evaluating Index of Enterprise Product Innovation. Science Researc Manageent, 2002,23(6):87~92 (in Cinese) 498

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