CHAPTER EVALUATING EARTHQUAKE RETROFITTING MEASURES FOR SCHOOLS: A COSTBENEFIT ANALYSIS


 Janel Park
 1 years ago
 Views:
Transcription
1 CHAPTER 17 EVALUATING EARTHQUAKE RETROFITTING MEASURES FOR SCHOOLS: A COSTBENEFIT ANALYSIS A.W. Smyth, G. Deodats, G. Franco, Y. He and T. Gurvch Department of Cvl Engneerng and Engneerng Mechancs, Columba Unversty, Unted States
2 Evaluatng earthquake retrofttng measures for schools: A costbeneft analyss Abstract: Based on a costbeneft approach for evaluatng sesmc mtgaton optons for apartment buldngs n Istanbul, Turkey, ths paper presents a demonstraton study for a hypothetcal vulnerable school buldng. A probablstc costbeneft analyss provdes a useful framework for assessng sesmc mtgaton measures, takng nto consderaton lmted resources and socal costs. The hypothetcal school s analysed over a varety of tmehorzons to determne the breakeven pont for nvestments for several sesmc retrofttng optons. Introducton In Smyth et al. (2004), a smple costbeneft analyss was performed to evaluate sesmc retrofttng measures of an apartment buldng n Istanbul, Turkey. The study combned probablstc sesmc hazard estmates, sophstcated structural analyss technques and economc costbeneft prncples to select the best of three retrofttng optons proposed by local contractors. Actual cost estmates for the retrofttng measures, n addton to the drect dollar losses due to a potental collapse, were consdered. In addton, to translate all of the losses nto one common metrc, the dollar cost of human lves lost n the event of a structural collapse was also consdered. Whle the approach s promsng for apartment structures, ts potental applcaton to school buldngs s even greater. Ths s smply because n many regons schools are desgned usng smlar buldng methods, wth smlar geometres. Therefore, t would not be necessary to perform a detaled analyss for each ndvdual structure. Rather, a probablstc structure could be consdered to represent a class of school structure type. Gven the demonstraton nature of ths study, a determnstc and hypothetcal school structure wll be consdered. The results of ths analyss should not be used to draw major conclusons for practce; the presentaton of the methodology n the context of schools s the purpose of ths paper. The structure to be consdered A prototype school model was developed based on rough descrptons, photographs and other qualtatve nformaton (Fgure 17.1). Fgure Typcal school structures n Mexco (a) School n Guerrero (b) School n Mexcal (Photos courtesy of Bran Tucker, GeoHazards Internatonal) (a) (b) OECD
3 Keepng schools safe n earthquakes Ths structural model conssts of a twostorey buldng wth a footprnt of 10 m 40 m and a storey heght of 3 m. The structure, the frame of whch s shown n Fgure 17.2(a), s dvded nto eght bays wth a wdth of 5 m n the long drecton and one bay wth a wdth of 10 m n the short drecton. A 2 m cantlevered slab on each floor acts as an access corrdor for the dfferent classrooms. To mmc possble poor desgn practce n developng countres, no lateral loads such as sesmc loadng were consdered n the desgn. The structure was desgned for gravty loads, whch nclude the weght of the structural elements (beams and columns), the weght of the slab, and permanent elements estmated at about 2.50 kn/m 2. A lve load of about 1.91 kn/m 2 was also consdered. These loads are appled on both storeys to allow for the typcal practce of constructng addtonal floors. The materal s assumed to be renforced concrete of average qualty wth a concrete compressve strength of kn/m 2 and a yeld strength of kn/m 2 for the steel. The mass of each of the elements s consdered, and addtonal masses are added on each floor to smulate the slabs. The Eurocode 1999 s used for dmensonng the steel renforcement wth the approprate safety factors for loads and materals. As desgned, the structure s vulnerable; t s capable of approprate standard servce loads but unft to sustan any strong loads other than gravty. Fgure Model of the structural frame for the orgnal and retroftted structures (a) Orgnal structure (b) Frst steel bracng opton (c) Second steel bracng opton (d) Renforcedconcrete bracng retroft (a) (b) (c) (d) 210 OECD 2004
4 Evaluatng earthquake retrofttng measures for schools: A costbeneft analyss Whle ths desgn s approprate for hghlghtng n general terms the effectveness of retrofttng and the economc analyss methodology, should a study of ths type be completed for actual school buldngs, a survey of desgns and materals used n exstng structures must be carred out to model these buldngs more accurately. The three retrofttng measures consdered are shown n Fgures 17.2(b) to 17.2(d). The frst nvolves the addton of lght steel bracng at the central bay to stffen the weak axs of the structure. The second s a more aggressve steel bracng retroft that also braces the end walls. Fnally, a more substantal renforcedconcrete bracng alternatve s consdered. Ths renforced concrete opton whle somewhat more labour ntensve s assumed to be cheaper than the second opton smply because steel shapes are not always readly avalable n rural regons n developng countres. Note that n developng countres, t s not uncommon to fnd that a substandard structural analyss was undertaken pror to a buldng s constructon, and that lttle f any qualty control was carred out n the manufacturng of materals. It s also typcal to fnd evdence of poor constructon practces e.g. nsuffcent cover for the rebar or nsuffcent spacng between the steel renforcement bars n collapsed buldngs after earthquakes (EERI, 2000). From ths perspectve, the desgn carred out n ths paper s sound; the cover for the rebar s no less than 5 cm and the spacng s consstent wth the Eurocode 1999 norm. Ths model s desgned wth the help of the software package SAP2000 v.7.40, whch s a standard tool for structural calculatons. The dynamc analyss was also undertaken usng ths software. Fraglty analyss The fraglty of a gven structure s defned as the probablty that for a gven ground moton shakng level (peak ground acceleraton), the structural response wll exceed a gven threshold level correspondng to a partcular damage level. The structural response s probablstc n terms of peak ground acceleraton (PGA) because the structural response deformatons wll, n general, be dfferent for dfferent ground moton tme hstores wth the same PGA. For each of the structural confguratons, the fraglty curves are shown n Fgure Four damage levels E are consdered: slght, moderate, major and total collapse. These damage levels are defned by nterstorey drft ratos n accordance wth the HAZUS99SR2 Techncal Manual. Note that retroft strengthenng has the effect of pushng the fraglty curves to the rght,.e. for the same PGA value, the probablty of exceedng a gven damage state s lower. OECD
5 Keepng schools safe n earthquakes Fgure Derved fraglty curves for the four structural confguratons (a) Orgnal structure (b) Frst steel bracng opton (c) Second steel bracng opton (d) Renforcedconcrete bracng retroft Probablty of exceedng damage (a) (b) (c) (d) Slght Moderate Major Collapse Peak Ground Acceleraton (g) 212 OECD 2004
6 Evaluatng earthquake retrofttng measures for schools: A costbeneft analyss Loss estmaton procedure In order to perform a basc costbeneft analyss, the expected losses for arbtrary tme horzons must be computed. The basc equaton to calculate the present value of losses usng a real (socal) dscount rate d s: Total loss n present value for a gven tme horzon T* (n years) = * T 4 amax [ Rˆ a + da, T Rˆ a, T ] P ( E only a) D ( ) ( ) a T 1 mn T = 1 = 1 1+ C ( d) where R ˆ ( a, T ) = the probablty of exceedng the PGA value a, gven that no earthquake has occurred n the prevous years = (the probablty of exceedng the PGA value a n year T) x (the probablty that no earthquake has occurred n the prevous (T1) years) R = ( amn )( T 1) R( a) e R( amn )( T 1) ( a) e R s the probablty that no earthquake has occurred n the prevous (T1) years, assumng a Posson dstrbuton of earthquake occurrence. The term a mn denotes the lower lmt of PGAs consdered, so f ths value s not exceeded, then a (sgnfcant) earthquake wll not have occurred. In ths study, the lower lmt a mn s set equal to 1% of g. The annual hazard curve R(a) was the same as that used n Smyth et al. (2004). Ths nformaton s regonspecfc and requres the nput of sesmologcal experts. The addtonal probablty n the above expresson s: P ( E only a) = the probablty of only event E occurrng for a gven PGA value a. Ths probablty s needed so that damage levels whch are lower than (or fall wthn the set of) more severe damage levels wll not be counted twce. Ths expresson s easly related to fraglty curves. D C = The losses assocated wth damage state are summarsed n Table Table Losses assocated wth damage state Damage level Cost ( C D 1 = ( s1 S) + ( 0 V ) E 1 Slght damage C D % s = ( s S) + ( 0 V ) 1 E 2 Moderate damage C D = ( s S) + ( 0 V ) 2 E 3 Major damage C D = ( s3 S) + ( 0 V ) E 4 Total collapse C D = ( s S) + ( N V ) 1 2 ) Comments 0 1 s2 0% s s2 1 da 100% (s 1 = 1%) 100% (s 2 = 10%) 3 s 3 = 100% s 4 4 L 4 = 100% OECD
7 Keepng schools safe n earthquakes Results of the economc costbeneft analyss In order to perform a costbeneft analyss, realstc estmates of the costs of the retrofttng D measures as well as the losses C for each damage state must be establshed. As ths s not a real buldng, assumed values were selected wthout the usual consultaton wth local experts. The replacement cost of the entre structure s assumed to be S = USD , and the costs of each retroft C are: M M Retroft 1: Steel bracng n 1 bay C = USD M Retroft 2: Steel bracng n 3 bays C = USD M Retroft 3: Renforcedconcrete bracng C 3 = USD The socal dscount rate s assumed to be 3% (Wensten et al., 1996). The fact that chldren would typcally only occupy a school for onethrd of the day (eght hours) was also factored nto the calculaton. Therefore n the loss calculatons above, the assumed number of lves lost N L s actually onethrd of the number of actual lves lost n the event of collapse. The net present value s the beneft mnus the certan cost of retroft. The beneft s smply the dfference n expected losses wth and wthout mtgaton. Table 17.2 llustrates the costbeneft analyss results for an assumed value of human lfe V = USD , and an assumpton that 15 lves would be lost f collapse occurred. The table lsts net present values for dfferent retrofttng decsons. Negatve values ndcate Table Expected net present value wth 15 fataltes and V = USD (NPV(5)) * Alternatve (A ) Tme horzon =1 Steel bracng 1 (USD) =2 Steel bracng 2 (USD) =3 Renforcedconcrete bracng (USD) * Negatve values (unshaded) ndcate economcally undesrable choces for the gven tmehorzon, whle postve values (shaded) ndcate economcally desrable choces. 214 OECD 2004
8 Evaluatng earthquake retrofttng measures for schools: A costbeneft analyss economcally undesrable choces for the gven tmehorzon, whle postve values ndcate an economcally desrable choce. Note that the second steel bracng retrofttng opton only breaks even after three years of hazard exposure. The renforcedconcrete bracng opton, whch s about as effectve as the more expensve threebay steel bracng opton, naturally hts ts breakeven pont sooner. In all cases, the breakeven pont occurs rather quckly smply because the retrofttng optons are nexpensve relatve to the potental loss of lfe due to collapse. From ths hypothetcal and smplstc example one can begn to apprecate the types of decsonmakng nformaton that the costbeneft approach yelds. For other combnatons of parameters, costs, etc., the conclusons would change. Ths also permts analysts to perform senstvty analyses to test the robustness of decsons. Conclusons and further work As mentoned at the outset, n order for ths approach to be appled to a partcular stock of school buldngs, more careful modellng of the partcular constructon type s requred. To apply ths approach to an ensemble of dfferent structures of the same type, some randomness also needs to be ntroduced n the structural model. Ths wll have the effect of makng the fraglty curves ascend more gradually because of the ncreased uncertanty. The authors are currently workng on a framework to ntroduce randomness to capture materal, geometrc and workmanshp uncertantes. Another lmtaton of ths demonstraton study s that only drect losses are consdered. In the case of a school buldng, the obvous dsrupton caused by a buldng collapse and tme requred to rebuld should be consdered. The modular framework presented here can easly accommodate estmaton of ndrect losses. References Earthquake Engneerng Research Insttute (EERI) (2000), 1999 Kocael, Turkey Earthquake Reconnassance Report, Earthquake Spectra, Supplement to Volume 16. SAP2000 (2000), Integrated Fnte Element and Desgn of Structures, Analyss Reference Manual, Computers and Structures, Inc., Berkeley. Smyth, A.W., et. al. (2004), Probablstc BeneftCost Analyss for Earthquake Damage Mtgaton: Evaluatng Measures for Apartment Houses n Turkey, Earthquake Spectra, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp Wensten, M., et al. (1996), Recommendatons of the Panel on CostEffectveness n Health and Medcne: Consensus Statement, Journal of the Amercan Medcal Assocaton, Vol. 276, pp OECD
9 Keepng schools safe n earthquakes Acknowledgements Ths work was supported n part by a grant from the Columba Unversty Academc Qualty Fund. The Columba Earth Insttute also provded support for ths work. 216 OECD 2004
Evaluating Earthquake Retrofitting Measures for Schools: A Demonstration CostBenefit Analysis
Evaluatng Earthquake Retrofttng easures for Schools: A emonstraton CostBeneft Analyss A.W. Smyth, G. eodats 2, G. Franco 3, Y. He 4, and T. Gurvch 4 ept. of Cvl Engneerng & Engneerng echancs Columba Unversty,
More informationFragility Based Rehabilitation Decision Analysis
.171. Fraglty Based Rehabltaton Decson Analyss Cagdas Kafal Graduate Student, School of Cvl and Envronmental Engneerng, Cornell Unversty Research Supervsor: rcea Grgoru, Professor Summary A method s presented
More informationAn Alternative Way to Measure Private Equity Performance
An Alternatve Way to Measure Prvate Equty Performance Peter Todd Parlux Investment Technology LLC Summary Internal Rate of Return (IRR) s probably the most common way to measure the performance of prvate
More information9.1 The Cumulative Sum Control Chart
Learnng Objectves 9.1 The Cumulatve Sum Control Chart 9.1.1 Basc Prncples: Cusum Control Chart for Montorng the Process Mean If s the target for the process mean, then the cumulatve sum control chart s
More informationRiskbased Fatigue Estimate of Deep Water Risers  Course Project for EM388F: Fracture Mechanics, Spring 2008
Rskbased Fatgue Estmate of Deep Water Rsers  Course Project for EM388F: Fracture Mechancs, Sprng 2008 Chen Sh Department of Cvl, Archtectural, and Envronmental Engneerng The Unversty of Texas at Austn
More informationbenefit is 2, paid if the policyholder dies within the year, and probability of death within the year is ).
REVIEW OF RISK MANAGEMENT CONCEPTS LOSS DISTRIBUTIONS AND INSURANCE Loss and nsurance: When someone s subject to the rsk of ncurrng a fnancal loss, the loss s generally modeled usng a random varable or
More informationInstitute of Informatics, Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology,Czech Republic
Lagrange Multplers as Quanttatve Indcators n Economcs Ivan Mezník Insttute of Informatcs, Faculty of Busness and Management, Brno Unversty of TechnologCzech Republc Abstract The quanttatve role of Lagrange
More informationComparison between the Provisions of the Egyptian Code of Practice and the Eurocodes for Reinforced Concrete Structures Design
Comparson between the Provsons of the Egyptan Code of Practce and the Eurocodes for Renforced Concrete Structures Desgn ElShennawy, Ahmed (ASH) 1 ; Boros, Vazul (VB) 2 ; Novák, Balthasar (BN) 3 1 German
More informationRisk Model of LongTerm Production Scheduling in Open Pit Gold Mining
Rsk Model of LongTerm Producton Schedulng n Open Pt Gold Mnng R Halatchev 1 and P Lever 2 ABSTRACT Open pt gold mnng s an mportant sector of the Australan mnng ndustry. It uses large amounts of nvestments,
More informationModule 2 LOSSLESS IMAGE COMPRESSION SYSTEMS. Version 2 ECE IIT, Kharagpur
Module LOSSLESS IMAGE COMPRESSION SYSTEMS Lesson 3 Lossless Compresson: Huffman Codng Instructonal Objectves At the end of ths lesson, the students should be able to:. Defne and measure source entropy..
More informationTrafficlight a stress test for life insurance provisions
MEMORANDUM Date 006097 Authors Bengt von Bahr, Göran Ronge Traffclght a stress test for lfe nsurance provsons Fnansnspetonen P.O. Box 6750 SE113 85 Stocholm [Sveavägen 167] Tel +46 8 787 80 00 Fax
More informationWhat is Candidate Sampling
What s Canddate Samplng Say we have a multclass or mult label problem where each tranng example ( x, T ) conssts of a context x a small (mult)set of target classes T out of a large unverse L of possble
More informationEarthquake Vulnerability Reduction Program in Colombia A Probabilistic Costbenefit Analysis
Publc Dsclosure Authorzed Earthquake Vulnerablty Reducton Program n Colomba A Probablstc Costbeneft Analyss WPS3939 Publc Dsclosure Authorzed Abstract Francs Ghesquere, World Bank Lus Jamn, Unversty of
More informationThe OC Curve of Attribute Acceptance Plans
The OC Curve of Attrbute Acceptance Plans The Operatng Characterstc (OC) curve descrbes the probablty of acceptng a lot as a functon of the lot s qualty. Fgure 1 shows a typcal OC Curve. 10 8 6 4 1 3 4
More informationForecasting the Demand of Emergency Supplies: Based on the CBR Theory and BP Neural Network
700 Proceedngs of the 8th Internatonal Conference on Innovaton & Management Forecastng the Demand of Emergency Supples: Based on the CBR Theory and BP Neural Network Fu Deqang, Lu Yun, L Changbng School
More informationNumber of Levels Cumulative Annual operating Income per year construction costs costs ($) ($) ($) 1 600,000 35,000 100,000 2 2,200,000 60,000 350,000
Problem Set 5 Solutons 1 MIT s consderng buldng a new car park near Kendall Square. o unversty funds are avalable (overhead rates are under pressure and the new faclty would have to pay for tself from
More informationDamage detection in composite laminates using cointap method
Damage detecton n composte lamnates usng contap method S.J. Km Korea Aerospace Research Insttute, 45 EoeunDong, YouseongGu, 35333 Daejeon, Republc of Korea yaeln@kar.re.kr 45 The contap test has the
More informationStudy on CET4 Marks in China s Graded English Teaching
Study on CET4 Marks n Chna s Graded Englsh Teachng CHE We College of Foregn Studes, Shandong Insttute of Busness and Technology, P.R.Chna, 264005 Abstract: Ths paper deploys Logt model, and decomposes
More informationCan Auto Liability Insurance Purchases Signal Risk Attitude?
Internatonal Journal of Busness and Economcs, 2011, Vol. 10, No. 2, 159164 Can Auto Lablty Insurance Purchases Sgnal Rsk Atttude? ChuShu L Department of Internatonal Busness, Asa Unversty, Tawan ShengChang
More informationInequality and The Accounting Period. Quentin Wodon and Shlomo Yitzhaki. World Bank and Hebrew University. September 2001.
Inequalty and The Accountng Perod Quentn Wodon and Shlomo Ytzha World Ban and Hebrew Unversty September Abstract Income nequalty typcally declnes wth the length of tme taen nto account for measurement.
More informationANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN QUALITY, TIME, AND COST IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING
ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN QUALITY, TIME, AND COST IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING Matthew J. Lberatore, Department of Management and Operatons, Vllanova Unversty, Vllanova, PA 19085, 6105194390,
More informationForecasting the Direction and Strength of Stock Market Movement
Forecastng the Drecton and Strength of Stock Market Movement Jngwe Chen Mng Chen Nan Ye cjngwe@stanford.edu mchen5@stanford.edu nanye@stanford.edu Abstract  Stock market s one of the most complcated systems
More informationAnalysis of Premium Liabilities for Australian Lines of Business
Summary of Analyss of Premum Labltes for Australan Lnes of Busness Emly Tao Honours Research Paper, The Unversty of Melbourne Emly Tao Acknowledgements I am grateful to the Australan Prudental Regulaton
More informationTime Series Analysis in Studies of AGN Variability. Bradley M. Peterson The Ohio State University
Tme Seres Analyss n Studes of AGN Varablty Bradley M. Peterson The Oho State Unversty 1 Lnear Correlaton Degree to whch two parameters are lnearly correlated can be expressed n terms of the lnear correlaton
More informationThe Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey,
Busness Brths and Deaths Impact of busness brths and deaths n the payroll survey The CES probabltybased sample redesgn accounts for most busness brth employment through the mputaton of busness deaths,
More informationDesign of Chinese steel TV towers
Desgn of Chnese steel TV towers Xng Ma Department of Cvl & Envronmental Engneerng, Unversty of Auckland, New Zealand Zhaomn Wang Department of Cvl Engneerng, Tongj Unversty, Shangha, Chna 6 NZSEE Conference
More informationMAPP. MERIS level 3 cloud and water vapour products. Issue: 1. Revision: 0. Date: 9.12.1998. Function Name Organisation Signature Date
Ttel: Project: Doc. No.: MERIS level 3 cloud and water vapour products MAPP MAPPATBDClWVL3 Issue: 1 Revson: 0 Date: 9.12.1998 Functon Name Organsaton Sgnature Date Author: Bennartz FUB Preusker FUB Schüller
More informationMoment of a force about a point and about an axis
3. STATICS O RIGID BODIES In the precedng chapter t was assumed that each of the bodes consdered could be treated as a sngle partcle. Such a vew, however, s not always possble, and a body, n general, should
More informationA DYNAMIC CRASHING METHOD FOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT USING SIMULATIONBASED OPTIMIZATION. Michael E. Kuhl Radhamés A. TolentinoPeña
Proceedngs of the 2008 Wnter Smulaton Conference S. J. Mason, R. R. Hll, L. Mönch, O. Rose, T. Jefferson, J. W. Fowler eds. A DYNAMIC CRASHING METHOD FOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT USING SIMULATIONBASED OPTIMIZATION
More informationQuality Adjustment of Secondhand Motor Vehicle Application of Hedonic Approach in Hong Kong s Consumer Price Index
Qualty Adustment of Secondhand Motor Vehcle Applcaton of Hedonc Approach n Hong Kong s Consumer Prce Index Prepared for the 14 th Meetng of the Ottawa Group on Prce Indces 20 22 May 2015, Tokyo, Japan
More informationMultiplePeriod Attribution: Residuals and Compounding
MultplePerod Attrbuton: Resduals and Compoundng Our revewer gave these authors full marks for dealng wth an ssue that performance measurers and vendors often regard as propretary nformaton. In 1994, Dens
More informationLIFETIME INCOME OPTIONS
LIFETIME INCOME OPTIONS May 2011 by: Marca S. Wagner, Esq. The Wagner Law Group A Professonal Corporaton 99 Summer Street, 13 th Floor Boston, MA 02110 Tel: (617) 3575200 Fax: (617) 3575250 www.ersalawyers.com
More informationPRIVATE SCHOOL CHOICE: THE EFFECTS OF RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION AND PARTICIPATION
PRIVATE SCHOOL CHOICE: THE EFFECTS OF RELIIOUS AFFILIATION AND PARTICIPATION Danny CohenZada Department of Economcs, Benuron Unversty, BeerSheva 84105, Israel Wllam Sander Department of Economcs, DePaul
More informationMultivariate EWMA Control Chart
Multvarate EWMA Control Chart Summary The Multvarate EWMA Control Chart procedure creates control charts for two or more numerc varables. Examnng the varables n a multvarate sense s extremely mportant
More informationIntrayear Cash Flow Patterns: A Simple Solution for an Unnecessary Appraisal Error
Intrayear Cash Flow Patterns: A Smple Soluton for an Unnecessary Apprasal Error By C. Donald Wggns (Professor of Accountng and Fnance, the Unversty of North Florda), B. Perry Woodsde (Assocate Professor
More informationDEFINING %COMPLETE IN MICROSOFT PROJECT
CelersSystems DEFINING %COMPLETE IN MICROSOFT PROJECT PREPARED BY James E Aksel, PMP, PMISP, MVP For Addtonal Informaton about Earned Value Management Systems and reportng, please contact: CelersSystems,
More informationCalculating the high frequency transmission line parameters of power cables
< ' Calculatng the hgh frequency transmsson lne parameters of power cables Authors: Dr. John Dcknson, Laboratory Servces Manager, N 0 RW E B Communcatons Mr. Peter J. Ncholson, Project Assgnment Manager,
More informationStudy on Model of Risks Assessment of Standard Operation in Rural Power Network
Study on Model of Rsks Assessment of Standard Operaton n Rural Power Network Qngj L 1, Tao Yang 2 1 Qngj L, College of Informaton and Electrcal Engneerng, Shenyang Agrculture Unversty, Shenyang 110866,
More informationII. PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
II. PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT As ndcated above, probablty s a quantfcaton, or a mathematcal model, of a random experment. Ths quantfcaton s a measure of the lkelhood that a gven event wll occur when the
More informationCalculation of Sampling Weights
Perre Foy Statstcs Canada 4 Calculaton of Samplng Weghts 4.1 OVERVIEW The basc sample desgn used n TIMSS Populatons 1 and 2 was a twostage stratfed cluster desgn. 1 The frst stage conssted of a sample
More informationCausal, Explanatory Forecasting. Analysis. Regression Analysis. Simple Linear Regression. Which is Independent? Forecasting
Causal, Explanatory Forecastng Assumes causeandeffect relatonshp between system nputs and ts output Forecastng wth Regresson Analyss Rchard S. Barr Inputs System Cause + Effect Relatonshp The job of
More informationBrigid Mullany, Ph.D University of North Carolina, Charlotte
Evaluaton And Comparson Of The Dfferent Standards Used To Defne The Postonal Accuracy And Repeatablty Of Numercally Controlled Machnng Center Axes Brgd Mullany, Ph.D Unversty of North Carolna, Charlotte
More informationTime Value of Money. Types of Interest. Compounding and Discounting Single Sums. Page 1. Ch. 6  The Time Value of Money. The Time Value of Money
Ch. 6  The Tme Value of Money Tme Value of Money The Interest Rate Smple Interest Compound Interest Amortzng a Loan FIN21 Ahmed Y, Dasht TIME VALUE OF MONEY OR DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS Very Important
More information1.1 The University may award Higher Doctorate degrees as specified from timetotime in UPR AS11 1.
HIGHER DOCTORATE DEGREES SUMMARY OF PRINCIPAL CHANGES General changes None Secton 3.2 Refer to text (Amendments to verson 03.0, UPR AS02 are shown n talcs.) 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 The Unversty may award Hgher
More informationIMPACT ANALYSIS OF A CELLULAR PHONE
4 th ASA & μeta Internatonal Conference IMPACT AALYSIS OF A CELLULAR PHOE We Lu, 2 Hongy L Bejng FEAonlne Engneerng Co.,Ltd. Bejng, Chna ABSTRACT Drop test smulaton plays an mportant role n nvestgatng
More informationThe Development of Web Log Mining Based on ImproveKMeans Clustering Analysis
The Development of Web Log Mnng Based on ImproveKMeans Clusterng Analyss TngZhong Wang * College of Informaton Technology, Luoyang Normal Unversty, Luoyang, 471022, Chna wangtngzhong2@sna.cn Abstract.
More informationRobust Design of Public Storage Warehouses. Yeming (Yale) Gong EMLYON Business School
Robust Desgn of Publc Storage Warehouses Yemng (Yale) Gong EMLYON Busness School Rene de Koster Rotterdam school of management, Erasmus Unversty Abstract We apply robust optmzaton and revenue management
More informationOverview of monitoring and evaluation
540 Toolkt to Combat Traffckng n Persons Tool 10.1 Overvew of montorng and evaluaton Overvew Ths tool brefly descrbes both montorng and evaluaton, and the dstncton between the two. What s montorng? Montorng
More informationTo manage leave, meeting institutional requirements and treating individual staff members fairly and consistently.
Corporate Polces & Procedures Human Resources  Document CPP216 Leave Management Frst Produced: Current Verson: Past Revsons: Revew Cycle: Apples From: 09/09/09 26/10/12 09/09/09 3 years Immedately Authorsaton:
More informationEfficient Project Portfolio as a tool for Enterprise Risk Management
Effcent Proect Portfolo as a tool for Enterprse Rsk Management Valentn O. Nkonov Ural State Techncal Unversty Growth Traectory Consultng Company January 5, 27 Effcent Proect Portfolo as a tool for Enterprse
More informationSection B9: Zener Diodes
Secton B9: Zener Dodes When we frst talked about practcal dodes, t was mentoned that a parameter assocated wth the dode n the reverse bas regon was the breakdown voltage, BR, also known as the peaknverse
More informationPSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCH (PYC 304C) Lecture 12
14 The Chsquared dstrbuton PSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCH (PYC 304C) Lecture 1 If a normal varable X, havng mean µ and varance σ, s standardsed, the new varable Z has a mean 0 and varance 1. When ths standardsed
More informationCommunication Networks II Contents
8 / 1  Communcaton Networs II (Görg)  www.comnets.unbremen.de Communcaton Networs II Contents 1 Fundamentals of probablty theory 2 Traffc n communcaton networs 3 Stochastc & Marovan Processes (SP
More informationHOUSEHOLDS DEBT BURDEN: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON MICROECONOMIC DATA*
HOUSEHOLDS DEBT BURDEN: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON MICROECONOMIC DATA* Luísa Farnha** 1. INTRODUCTION The rapd growth n Portuguese households ndebtedness n the past few years ncreased the concerns that debt
More informationChE 4520/5520: Mass Transport. Objective/Introduction. Outline. Gerardine G. Botte
ChE 450/550: Mass Transport Gerardne G. Botte Objectve/Introducton In prevous chapters we neglected transport lmtatons In ths chapter we wll learn how to evaluate the effect of transport lmtatons We wll
More information9 Arithmetic and Geometric Sequence
AAU  Busness Mathematcs I Lecture #5, Aprl 4, 010 9 Arthmetc and Geometrc Sequence Fnte sequence: 1, 5, 9, 13, 17 Fnte seres: 1 + 5 + 9 + 13 +17 Infnte sequence: 1,, 4, 8, 16,... Infnte seres: 1 + + 4
More informationFREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF CERTAIN CHEMICAL CLASSES OF GSR FROM VARIOUS AMMUNITION TYPES
FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF CERTAIN CHEMICAL CLASSES OF GSR FROM VARIOUS AMMUNITION TYPES Zuzanna BRO EKMUCHA, Grzegorz ZADORA, 2 Insttute of Forensc Research, Cracow, Poland 2 Faculty of Chemstry, Jagellonan
More informationSmall pots lump sum payment instruction
For customers Small pots lump sum payment nstructon Please read these notes before completng ths nstructon About ths nstructon Use ths nstructon f you re an ndvdual wth Aegon Retrement Choces Self Invested
More informationComparing Class Level Chain Drift for Different Elementary Aggregate Formulae Using Locally Collected CPI Data
Comparng Class Level Chan Drft for Dfferent Elementary Aggregate Formulae Usng Gareth Clews 1, Anselma DobsonMcKttrck 2 and Joseph Wnton Summary The Consumer Prces Index (CPI) s a measure of consumer
More information1. Fundamentals of probability theory 2. Emergence of communication traffic 3. Stochastic & Markovian Processes (SP & MP)
6.3 /  Communcaton Networks II (Görg) SS20  www.comnets.unbremen.de Communcaton Networks II Contents. Fundamentals of probablty theory 2. Emergence of communcaton traffc 3. Stochastc & Markovan Processes
More informationLevel Annuities with Payments Less Frequent than Each Interest Period
Level Annutes wth Payments Less Frequent than Each Interest Perod 1 Annutymmedate 2 Annutydue Level Annutes wth Payments Less Frequent than Each Interest Perod 1 Annutymmedate 2 Annutydue Symoblc approach
More informationIntroduction: Analysis of Electronic Circuits
/30/008 ntroducton / ntroducton: Analyss of Electronc Crcuts Readng Assgnment: KVL and KCL text from EECS Just lke EECS, the majorty of problems (hw and exam) n EECS 3 wll be crcut analyss problems. Thus,
More informationEnterprise Master Patient Index
Enterprse Master Patent Index Healthcare data are captured n many dfferent settngs such as hosptals, clncs, labs, and physcan offces. Accordng to a report by the CDC, patents n the Unted States made an
More informationCHOLESTEROL REFERENCE METHOD LABORATORY NETWORK. Sample Stability Protocol
CHOLESTEROL REFERENCE METHOD LABORATORY NETWORK Sample Stablty Protocol Background The Cholesterol Reference Method Laboratory Network (CRMLN) developed certfcaton protocols for total cholesterol, HDL
More informationInterIng 2007. INTERDISCIPLINARITY IN ENGINEERING SCIENTIFIC INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE, TG. MUREŞ ROMÂNIA, 1516 November 2007.
InterIng 2007 INTERDISCIPLINARITY IN ENGINEERING SCIENTIFIC INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE, TG. MUREŞ ROMÂNIA, 1516 November 2007. UNCERTAINTY REGION SIMULATION FOR A SERIAL ROBOT STRUCTURE MARIUS SEBASTIAN
More informationSolution of Algebraic and Transcendental Equations
CHAPTER Soluton of Algerac and Transcendental Equatons. INTRODUCTION One of the most common prolem encountered n engneerng analyss s that gven a functon f (, fnd the values of for whch f ( = 0. The soluton
More informationUsing Series to Analyze Financial Situations: Present Value
2.8 Usng Seres to Analyze Fnancal Stuatons: Present Value In the prevous secton, you learned how to calculate the amount, or future value, of an ordnary smple annuty. The amount s the sum of the accumulated
More informationExtending Probabilistic Dynamic Epistemic Logic
Extendng Probablstc Dynamc Epstemc Logc Joshua Sack May 29, 2008 Probablty Space Defnton A probablty space s a tuple (S, A, µ), where 1 S s a set called the sample space. 2 A P(S) s a σalgebra: a set
More informationThe Magnetic Field. Concepts and Principles. Moving Charges. Permanent Magnets
. The Magnetc Feld Concepts and Prncples Movng Charges All charged partcles create electrc felds, and these felds can be detected by other charged partcles resultng n electrc force. However, a completely
More informationSIX WAYS TO SOLVE A SIMPLE PROBLEM: FITTING A STRAIGHT LINE TO MEASUREMENT DATA
SIX WAYS TO SOLVE A SIMPLE PROBLEM: FITTING A STRAIGHT LINE TO MEASUREMENT DATA E. LAGENDIJK Department of Appled Physcs, Delft Unversty of Technology Lorentzweg 1, 68 CJ, The Netherlands Emal: e.lagendjk@tnw.tudelft.nl
More informationStaff Paper. Farm Savings Accounts: Examining Income Variability, Eligibility, and Benefits. Brent Gloy, Eddy LaDue, and Charles Cuykendall
SP 200502 August 2005 Staff Paper Department of Appled Economcs and Management Cornell Unversty, Ithaca, New York 148537801 USA Farm Savngs Accounts: Examnng Income Varablty, Elgblty, and Benefts Brent
More informationA system for realtime calculation and monitoring of energy performance and carbon emissions of RET systems and buildings
A system for realtme calculaton and montorng of energy performance and carbon emssons of RET systems and buldngs Dr PAAIOTIS PHILIMIS Dr ALESSADRO GIUSTI Dr STEPHE GARVI CE Technology Center Democratas
More informationNasdaq Iceland Bond Indices 01 April 2015
Nasdaq Iceland Bond Indces 01 Aprl 2015 Fxed duraton Indces Introducton Nasdaq Iceland (the Exchange) began calculatng ts current bond ndces n the begnnng of 2005. They were a response to recent changes
More informationPrediction of Wind Energy with Limited Observed Data
Predcton of Wnd Energy wth Lmted Observed Data Shgeto HIRI, khro HOND Nagasak R&D Center, MITSISHI HEVY INDSTRIES, LTD, Nagasak, 8539 JPN Masaak SHIT Nagasak Shpyard & Machnery Works, MITSISHI HEVY INDSTRIES,
More informationStatistical Methods to Develop Rating Models
Statstcal Methods to Develop Ratng Models [Evelyn Hayden and Danel Porath, Österrechsche Natonalbank and Unversty of Appled Scences at Manz] Source: The Basel II Rsk Parameters Estmaton, Valdaton, and
More informationA 'Virtual Population' Approach To Small Area Estimation
A 'Vrtual Populaton' Approach To Small Area Estmaton Mchael P. Battagla 1, Martn R. Frankel 2, Machell Town 3 and Lna S. Balluz 3 1 Abt Assocates Inc., Cambrdge MA 02138 2 Baruch College, CUNY, New York
More informationg. Kaptay *, # E/7, 606 Egyetemvaros, Miskolc, Hungary 3515 (Received 24 October 2011; accepted 01 December 2011)
J o u r n a l o f J Mn Metall Sect B Metall 48 (1) B (2012) 153 159 M n n g a n d M e t a l l u r g y On the atomic masses (weights?) Of the elements g Kaptay *, # * Bay Zoltan Nonproft Ltd and Unversty
More informationDescribing Communities. Species Diversity Concepts. Species Richness. Species Richness. SpeciesArea Curve. SpeciesArea Curve
peces versty Concepts peces Rchness pecesarea Curves versty Indces  mpson's Index  hannonwener Index  rlloun Index peces Abundance Models escrbng Communtes There are two mportant descrptors of a communty:
More informationTime Value of Money Module
Tme Value of Money Module O BJECTIVES After readng ths Module, you wll be able to: Understand smple nterest and compound nterest. 2 Compute and use the future value of a sngle sum. 3 Compute and use the
More informationWhen Talk is Free : The Effect of Tariff Structure on Usage under Two and ThreePart Tariffs
0 When Talk s Free : The Effect of Tarff Structure on Usage under Two and ThreePart Tarffs Eva Ascarza Ana Lambrecht Naufel Vlcassm July 2012 (Forthcomng at Journal of Marketng Research) Eva Ascarza
More informationSETTLEMENT PREDICTION OF PILESUPPORTED STRUCTURES IN LIQUEFIABLE SOILS DURING EARTHQUAKE
SETTLEMENT PREDICTION OF PILESUPPORTED STRUCTURES IN LIQUEFIABLE SOILS DURING EARTHQUAKE Chandra Dev Raman 1, Subhamoy Bhattacharya 2 and A Blakeborough 3 1 Research Scholar, Department of Engneerng Scence,Unversty
More informationDesign for Warranty Cost Reduction
Desgn for Warranty Cost Reducton Robert H. Mueller, Ops A La Carte & Marsan Group Key Words: warranty, warranty cost model, desgn for warranty, computer, electroncs ndustry SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS Ths paper
More informationA Probabilistic Theory of Coherence
A Probablstc Theory of Coherence BRANDEN FITELSON. The Coherence Measure C Let E be a set of n propostons E,..., E n. We seek a probablstc measure C(E) of the degree of coherence of E. Intutvely, we want
More informationLecture 3: Annuity. Study annuities whose payments form a geometric progression or a arithmetic progression.
Lecture 3: Annuty Goals: Learn contnuous annuty and perpetuty. Study annutes whose payments form a geometrc progresson or a arthmetc progresson. Dscuss yeld rates. Introduce Amortzaton Suggested Textbook
More informationRecurrence. 1 Definitions and main statements
Recurrence 1 Defntons and man statements Let X n, n = 0, 1, 2,... be a MC wth the state space S = (1, 2,...), transton probabltes p j = P {X n+1 = j X n = }, and the transton matrx P = (p j ),j S def.
More informationAnswer: A). There is a flatter IS curve in the high MPC economy. Original LM LM after increase in M. IS curve for low MPC economy
4.02 Quz Solutons Fall 2004 MultpleChoce Questons (30/00 ponts) Please, crcle the correct answer for each of the followng 0 multplechoce questons. For each queston, only one of the answers s correct.
More informationErrorPropagation.nb 1. Error Propagation
ErrorPropagaton.nb Error Propagaton Suppose that we make observatons of a quantty x that s subject to random fluctuatons or measurement errors. Our best estmate of the true value for ths quantty s then
More informationCapital asset pricing model, arbitrage pricing theory and portfolio management
Captal asset prcng model, arbtrage prcng theory and portfolo management Vnod Kothar The captal asset prcng model (CAPM) s great n terms of ts understandng of rsk decomposton of rsk nto securtyspecfc rsk
More informationControl Charts for Means (Simulation)
Chapter 290 Control Charts for Means (Smulaton) Introducton Ths procedure allows you to study the run length dstrbuton of Shewhart (Xbar), Cusum, FIR Cusum, and EWMA process control charts for means usng
More informationMechanics of Rigid Body
Mechancs of Rgd Body 1. Introducton Knematcs, Knetcs and Statc 2. Knematcs. Types of Rgd Body Moton: Translaton, Rotaton General Plane Moton 3. Knetcs. Forces and Acceleratons. Energy and Momentum Methods.
More informationTuition Fee Loan application notes
Tuton Fee Loan applcaton notes for new parttme EU students 2012/13 About these notes These notes should be read along wth your Tuton Fee Loan applcaton form. The notes are splt nto three parts: Part 1
More informationSolution: Let i = 10% and d = 5%. By definition, the respective forces of interest on funds A and B are. i 1 + it. S A (t) = d (1 dt) 2 1. = d 1 dt.
Chapter 9 Revew problems 9.1 Interest rate measurement Example 9.1. Fund A accumulates at a smple nterest rate of 10%. Fund B accumulates at a smple dscount rate of 5%. Fnd the pont n tme at whch the forces
More informationLecture 3: Force of Interest, Real Interest Rate, Annuity
Lecture 3: Force of Interest, Real Interest Rate, Annuty Goals: Study contnuous compoundng and force of nterest Dscuss real nterest rate Learn annutymmedate, and ts present value Study annutydue, and
More informationTrade Adjustment and Productivity in Large Crises. Online Appendix May 2013. Appendix A: Derivation of Equations for Productivity
Trade Adjustment Productvty n Large Crses Gta Gopnath Department of Economcs Harvard Unversty NBER Brent Neman Booth School of Busness Unversty of Chcago NBER Onlne Appendx May 2013 Appendx A: Dervaton
More informationTHE DISTRIBUTION OF LOAN PORTFOLIO VALUE * Oldrich Alfons Vasicek
HE DISRIBUION OF LOAN PORFOLIO VALUE * Oldrch Alfons Vascek he amount of captal necessary to support a portfolo of debt securtes depends on the probablty dstrbuton of the portfolo loss. Consder a portfolo
More informationHow Sets of Coherent Probabilities May Serve as Models for Degrees of Incoherence
1 st Internatonal Symposum on Imprecse Probabltes and Ther Applcatons, Ghent, Belgum, 29 June 2 July 1999 How Sets of Coherent Probabltes May Serve as Models for Degrees of Incoherence Mar J. Schervsh
More informationAn Evaluation of the Extended Logistic, Simple Logistic, and Gompertz Models for Forecasting Short Lifecycle Products and Services
An Evaluaton of the Extended Logstc, Smple Logstc, and Gompertz Models for Forecastng Short Lfecycle Products and Servces Charles V. Trappey a,1, Hsnyng Wu b a Professor (Management Scence), Natonal Chao
More informationSUPPLIER FINANCING AND STOCK MANAGEMENT. A JOINT VIEW.
SUPPLIER FINANCING AND STOCK MANAGEMENT. A JOINT VIEW. Lucía Isabel García Cebrán Departamento de Economía y Dreccón de Empresas Unversdad de Zaragoza Gran Vía, 2 50.005 Zaragoza (Span) Phone: 976761000
More informationOptimal allocation of safety and security resources
397 A publcaton of VOL. 31, 2013 CHEMICAL ENGINEERING TRANSACTIONS Guest Edtors: Eddy De Rademaeker, Bruno Fabano, Smberto Senn Buratt Copyrght 2013, AIDIC Servz S.r.l., ISBN 9788895608228; ISSN 19749791
More informationAn InterestOriented Network Evolution Mechanism for Online Communities
An InterestOrented Network Evoluton Mechansm for Onlne Communtes Cahong Sun and Xaopng Yang School of Informaton, Renmn Unversty of Chna, Bejng 100872, P.R. Chna {chsun,yang}@ruc.edu.cn Abstract. Onlne
More information