1 Using Big Data Analytics to Improve Government Performance Alan Goon Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any form without Gartner's prior written permission. If you are authorized to access this publication, your use of it is subject to the Usage Guidelines for Gartner Services posted on gartner.com. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information and shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in such information. This publication consists of the opinions of Gartner's research organization and should not be construed as statements of fact. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Although Gartner research may include a discussion of related legal issues, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner is a public company, and its shareholders may include firms and funds that have financial interests in entities covered in Gartner research. Gartner's Board of Directors may include senior managers of these firms or funds. Gartner research is produced independently by its research organization without input or influence from these firms, funds or their managers. For further information on the independence and integrity of Gartner research, see "Guiding Principles on Independence and Objectivity."
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3 The Nexus of Forces Is Driving Innovation in Government Extreme Networking Rampant Access Rich Context, Deep Insights Global Class Delivery
4 In 2020: Everyone and Everything is Connected to Internet 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Courtesy of Intel
5 Information And Noise is Exploding at Exponential Rates Big Data Creates Big Challenges: Volume Velocity Variety 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Courtesy of Intel
6 Government Information Is a Public Asset Are you getting the most business value from your data?
7 A Digital Revolution Is Under Way Causing a Re-imagination of Everything Business Models, Politics, The Economy, Trade, Computing Devices, Operating Systems, Connectivity, News, Information Flow, Storage, Magazines, Money, Payments, Knowledge, Note-taking, Transportation, Funding & Lending, Recruiting, Production, Education, Thermostats, Music, Shopping
8 Key Issues 1. What is Big Data? 2. How does big data improve government performance? 3. What are the use cases for big data analytics in government?
9 Key Issues 1. What is Big Data? 2. How does big data improve government performance? 3. What are the use cases for big data analytics in government?
10 What Is "Big Data"? A scientific breakthrough (Hadoop in 2005) for handling vast amounts of data? Not really A marketing ploy to get you to spend more on IT? Sometimes A useful set of barely-related technologies for large-scale analytics? Yes
11 "Big Data" Defined VOLUME VARIETY VELOCITY "Big data" are high-volume, high-velocity and high-variety information assets that demand cost-effective, innovative forms of information processing for enhanced insight and decision making. Source: The Importance of 'Big Data': A Definition, Mark Beyer, Douglas Laney, G
12 Which Big Data Characteristic Is the Biggest Issue for Your Organization? Velocity of data 16% Volume of data 35% Variety of data 48% Source: Getting Value From Big Data, Gartner Webinar, May 2012
13 Strategic Planning Assumptions By 2015, more than 30% of analytic projects will deliver insights based on structured and unstructured data. Correlating, analyzing, presenting, and embedding insights from structured and unstructured information together enables government agencies to better personalize the constituent experience and identify opportunities for efficiencies, innovation, and even new business models.
14 Key Issues 1. What is big data? 2. How does big data improve government performance? 3. What are the use cases for big data analytics in government?
15 The Primary Goal of Big Data: Analytics to Give Your Organization an Edge 14
16 Bad Decisions Make Big Headlines
17 BI and Analytics: A Core Business Competency It s all about decisions: enabling businesses to strengthen their decision-making capabilities by applying the latest and best methods of analysis to the most important decisions facing them. New Reality: Information and analytics is core to business advantage 16
18 Reality Check: The Current State Today, 80% of analytic investments have been in producing reports from lagging information. The volume, velocity and variety of new information sources and the need for new analytical capabilities are increasingly presenting challenges and opportunities for organizations.
19 Acknowledge Big Data Analytics Initiatives Are Unique Technical Challenges and Opportunities Business Challenges and Opportunities
20 Government CIOs Have More Sources of Information to Do More With Descriptive Analytics What happened? What should happen? Enterprise "Dark Data" Documents Operational Social IT/OT Open Open Data Text Transactional Data Audio Search Engine Social Image Commercial Diagnostic Analytics Why did it happen? What will happen? Prescriptive Analytics Video Public Mobile Predictive Analytics
21 It s all about decisions why is information and analysis so important? Skill Levels Required Descriptive Analytics What Happened? Diagnostic Analytics Why Did it Happen? Predictive Analytics What Will Happen? Prescriptive Analytics What Should Happen? Better Decisions Information Level of Business Impact
22 Information, Analysis And Decisions: The Basics Descriptive Analytics Diagnostic Analytics Analysis Predictive Analytics Prescriptive Analytics What is Happening? Why Did it Happen? What Is Likely To Happen? What Should I Do About It? Information Structured Hybrid Unstructured/Content
23 Information and Analytics Today Descriptive Analytics Diagnostic Analytics Analysis Predictive Analytics Prescriptive Analytics What is Happening? Why Did it Happen? What Is Likely To Happen? What Should I Do About It? Structured Hybrid Unstructured/Content Information
24 Emerging Trends: Information and Analytics Descriptive Analytics Diagnostic Analytics Analysis Predictive Analytics Prescriptive Analytics What is Happening? Why Did it Happen? What Is Likely To Happen? What Should I Do About It? Structured Hybrid Unstructured/Content Information
25 Data Science Drives All Kinds of Analytics Sophistication Link Analysis, Clustering, Decision Trees Inversion, Sensitivity Analysis, Design of Experiments Descriptive Monitoring Human Data Diagnostic Understanding Predictive Anticipating Prescriptive Controlling Decision Support Human Human Human Decision Automation Decision Action Optimization, Decision Management, Next Best Action,... Neural Nets, Nearest Neighbor, SVM, Time Series, Markov Chain Modeling...
26 Linking, Mining, and Sharing Data Expand Information Management Practices How In-line; Real Time Whose Social Government Offline; Batch Structured; "Simple" Explanatory; Historical What Unstructured; Linked Open Data More sources Social Data More relationships Predictive; Outcomes Why Shared Data Linked Data More stakeholders More context
27 Big Data Capabilities Capture the Business Value Correlations and patterns from disparate, linked data sources yield the greatest insights and transformative opportunities Transactions Geographic Economic Contracts Sentiment Sensor Reports Monitoring Demographic Weather Mobile Network Industry Big Data Capabilities Ability to Store and Process Unstructured Data Ability to Link Data of Various Types Ability to Affordably Perform Comprehensive Analysis Constituent Insights and Engagement Program and Outcomes Management Operations and New Services Risk Management and Public Safety Fraud Detection Primary Use Cases
28 Typical Drivers for a Big Data Analytics Initiative Business Drivers: Cost-reduction opportunities Improved outcomes Changing priorities or use cases New business models Unused dark data Compliance (executive order or legislative action) Technology Drivers: Combination of structured and unstructured data Performance issues with enterprise data warehouses Traditional technology does not scale Technology cost reduction Program grant requirements Convergence of Business and IT
29 Approach for Generating Big Ideas for Big Data What is important to us? Business Drivers internal Could we adapt what they've done? Examples external internal? What could the data tell us? Information Assets internal external external 1. Generate hypotheses 2. Gather data 3. Analyze data 4. Draw conclusion 5. Re-test Possibilities Useful conclusion? Actionable? Feasible? Defensible? Implement it!
30 The Road Map: Typical Stages and Milestones of Big Data Adoption Value Data products emerge Initial implementation of the LDW Stabilized big data infrastructure Information governance is a must Information-driven Enterprise Strategic Transformative Big data initiative is justified Big data strategy planned Traditional technology cannot meet all needs Unaware Aware Experimental Opportunistic Big data is becoming the new normal Ramp up (investments outstrip returns) A milestone Time
31 2020: Your Future Management Team?
32 Key Issues 1. What is Big Data? 2. How does big data improve government performance? 3. What are the use cases for big data analytics in government?
33 Predictive Policing Opportunity: - Increase Los Angeles police presence where it's most likely needed Data and Analytics: - PredPol applies models for predicting earthquake aftershocks to historical crime data and other factors Results: - Predicted twice as many crimes as experienced crime analysts in controlled trials - 33% reduction in burglaries and 21% reduction in violent crimes in test region of Los Angeles, compared to a slight increase in the rest of the city
34 Police Predict Predator's Position Opportunity: - Increase the speed of Swedish police investigations Data and Analytics: - Communication behavior from phone calls in combination with crime statistics, weather, day of week, and city events - Analyzed data from over 500,000 interrogations, evidence, and background info. using QlikView Results: Reduced 9 months of manual analysis to 3 minutes of automated analytics Helped locate a serial killer in the city of Malmö by calculating the time and location of the next shooting 6.7M krone reallocated from administration to law enforcement
35 Dial Algorith-M For Murder Opportunity - Reducing homicide rates - Safer communities Data and Analytics - Dataset of two dozen variables on 60,000 crimes - Predictive algorithm created by University of Pennsylvania Results - Contradicts and corrects conventional wisdom among law enforcement community - Improves (optimizes) parolee supervision and reduces dept of corrections expense - Can predict 8 out of 100 homicides in MD, PA and DC 34
36 Car Talk Opportunity - Improve safety and efficiency of vehicles Data and Analytics - OpenXC is an API for cars that can make telemetry data accessible to Android and desktop apps via a small hardware module - Signals and status supported: steering wheel angle, torque, engine/vehicle speed, accelerator/brake status, odometer, ignition, fuel, windshield wiper, GPS, door, etc. Results - Collected and analyzed Ford car data using Splunk to compare electric vs gasoline driving tendencies - Identified the best place for police speed traps (but didn t tell them!) 35
37 Electing to Use Advanced Analytics Opportunity: - Understand and connect with voters and donors at a more granular and personal level - Improve on previous analytic agility and speed Data and Analytics: - Integrated data from digital and other channels - Continual voter modeling using KXEN to predict voter segment receptiveness and behavior - 66,000 election simulations per night Results: - Raised $1B in campaign funds with fewer resources by communicating with the right individuals at the right time on the right medium - Grew digital fundraising by 20%, added 500,000 donors, increased ad. buying efficiency by 15%, and improved volunteer and per-donor rates over 2008 Obama for America Campaign
38 Tomorrow's News, Today Opportunity: - Identify systemic, related or mounting health, geopolitical or financial issues Data and Analytics: - Continually capture, translate, classify, and analyze 40,000 local news reports in 43 languages from around the world - Custom charting, alerts, animated map visualization of categories or search terms - Predict and highlight emerging hot topics and trends Results: - Enable politicians, insurers, investors, disease control institutions, and global support groups to respond quicker to local or global issues
39 Analytics Is the Prescription for Patient Medicine Compliance Opportunity: - Identify and intervene with patients who are less likely to take their prescriptions correctly Data and Analytics: - Patients taking meds. for high blood pressure, diabetes, high cholesterol, asthma, osteoporosis, and multiple sclerosis - Analyzes 400 variables including prescription history, economic makeup of the patient's neighborhood Results: - 90% compliance prediction accuracy - Tailored manual interventions including phone calls and help with signing up for auto-refills - Beeping bottle caps increased compliance by 2%; timers given to forgetful patients improved their compliance 16%
40 Listening to United Voices Opportunity: - Evolving from reactive to proactive responses to global issues - Developing and guiding assistance programs Data and Analytics: - Mining social networks to predict job losses, spending reductions, or disease outbreaks within a region - Natural language deciphering Result (TBD): - Early warning signals to guide assistance programs for preventing regions from slipping into poverty, epidemics, or war
41 Stretching Analytic Performance to Measure Price Elasticity Opportunity: - Business lacking the ability to react to market conditions and new product launches Data and Analytics: - 8.9B sales line items, 1.4B SKUs, 1.8B rows of inventory, 3,200 stores - Entire solution moved from mainframe to Hadoop - Calculating store-item price elasticity over 12.6B parameters Results: - Price elasticity now measured weekly against all data instead of quarterly against a subset - $600K annual savings; 6,000 lines of batch code reduced to 400 lines of PIG
42 Recommendations Do not postpone the implementation of big data analytics, but develop an information management strategy first. Identify big questions relevant to big data. Understand big data technology capabilities and manage organizational impacts. Validate your big data assumptions in a proof of concept.
43 Recommended Gartner Research Invest in Information and Analytics to Benefit From Big Data Douglas Laney, Frank Buytendijk (G ) Toolkit: Big Data Business Opportunities From Over 100 Use Cases Frank Buytendijk, Lisa Kart, and others (G ) Information Governance in the Age of Big Data Svetlana Sicular (G ) Decision Point for Practical Big Data Use Cases Svetlana Sicular (G ) Predicts 2013: Business Intelligence and Analytics Need to Scale Up to Support Explosive Growth in Data Sources Daniel Yuen, Rita Sallam, and others (G ) For more information, stop by Gartner Research Zone.