ANNUAL MANAGEMENT REPORT OF FUND PERFORMANCE

Transcription

1 GUARDIAN CAPITAL LP ANNUAL MANAGEMENT REPORT OF FUND PERFORMANCE Guardian Global Equity Fund December 31, 2015 This annual management report of fund performance contains financial highlights, but does not contain either the annual financial report or annual financial statements of the investment fund. You can obtain a copy of the annual financial report or annual financial statements at your request, and at no cost, by calling , by writing to us at Guardian Capital LP, Commerce Court West, 199 Bay Street, Suite 3100, P.O. Box 201, Toronto, Ontario, M5L 1E8, or by visiting our website at or SEDAR at Securityholders may also contact us using one of these methods to request a copy of the investment fund s proxy voting policies and procedures, proxy voting disclosure record, or quarterly portfolio disclosure.

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3 For the period ended December 31, 2015 Manager: Guardian Capital LP Annual Management Report of Fund Performance Management Discussion of Fund Performance Investment Objective and Strategies Guardian Global Equity Fund seeks to achieve long-term capital appreciation through investing in equity securities of businesses with operations around the world. Relying on a bottom-up, quantitative approach, the Fund s Manager selects securities based on an analysis of multiple factors and information, including rates of change in fundamental factors. Risk The risks associated with investing in the Fund remain as discussed in the prospectus. The Fund may be suitable for investors with a medium tolerance for risk, particularly those who seek exposure to equity securities of issuers with business operations around the world. Results of Operations (This commentary is based on the performance of Series I units of the Fund. Returns for other Series of units may vary, largely due to differences in fees and expenses. Please refer to the Past Performance section for specific Series level performance details.) The Fund s net assets decreased 17% to $29.8 million at December 31, 2015, from $35.9 million at December 31, Of this change, a $5.0 million increase was provided by investment performance and an $11.1 million decrease came from net redemptions. Equity markets were turbulent throughout the year, as an expanding U.S. economy was offset by slowing growth in the rest of the world, including Europe and Asia. Investment news highlighted the continued decline of the price of oil, which fell by more than 30% during the year, and the everstrengthening U.S. dollar, as the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked short-term interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. The S&P 500 Index in local terms rose by 1.4% during the period, but due to the depreciation of the Canadian dollar, the S&P 500 Index in Canadian dollars rose by 21.0%. The past year saw a clear divergence in global markets. While emerging economies continued to slump, dragged down by commodity prices, the picture was more optimistic in developed markets, due to strong domestic demand. In both the U.S. and the Eurozone, service sector growth outpaced manufacturing, which was largely spurred by increased consumer confidence. However, the two regions find themselves at polar ends of the business cycle - with the U.S. further along in the recovery - necessitating the divergence of monetary policy between their central banks. As the Fed embarks on its cycle of tightening, the European Central Bank is reacting to an environment of disinflationary pressures with yet more easing. In the U.S., an increasingly strong labour market along with a surge in housing starts in November gave the Fed the necessary fodder to execute a planned 25 bps rate hike. Still, the path to normalization will be fraught with uncertainty, as pockets of the economy remain weak. The current landscape with its strong dollar and low inflation warrants only gradual increases, according to Janet Yellen. China, which saw a significant drop in its industrial output in 2015, continues to be a major source of deflationary pressure on the global economy. GDP is expected to grow at 6.3%, the lowest since 1990, and China s official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) stood at 49.7 in December, indicating a fifth consecutive month of contracting manufacturing activity. All this has translated into weak demand for capital goods and commodities, the ramifications of which are bearish for the rest of the emerging markets. With investment winding down, consumption must now act as the key driver of growth. It remains to be seen whether the transition can be accomplished tactfully through widened social nets that encourage more spending and less saving. In the meantime, the government s interest in having the yuan included as a major reserve currency will curb any drastic depreciation of the yuan and should help avoid any currency volatility that might entail. During the year, the Guardian Global Equity Fund provided a return of +20.6%, finishing ahead of the +18.3% return of the MSCI World Index. Notably in the past year, the stock market significantly favoured companies which demonstrated visible growth relative to their peers. This high sentiment toward growth is a reflection of other areas of the market being under pressure. Throughout the year, the market was anticipating the eventual rise in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve and, as such, a large segment of the equity market, dividend stocks, were out of favour. During the year, the largest source of value added for the Fund came from the Energy sector. While the price of oil 3

4 declined significantly and this was a difficult environment for most oil companies, the oil refining companies were enjoying significant profit growth and stock market gains. With the falling price of oil, refiners enjoy the benefit of lower input costs. Elsewhere in the Fund, holdings in the Financial sector also performed well relative to the index. Top performing holdings in the group included Swiss Re, Old Republic, and Bank of America. The Fund also added value by not holding Spanish bank Banco Santander, which slipped more than 25% during the year. Overall, the best performing stock for the year was Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, with a gain of 89% for the period. Sold from the Fund during the year was United Health Group, CareFusion, IPG Photonics, Biogen, Lennar, Comcast, and Toyota Motor. New positions established include Amazon, Deutsche Lufthansa, Novo Nordisk, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft and British American Tobacco. The Fund maintained relatively neutral sector weights relative to the Index throughout the year. Recent Developments The portfolio manager remains cautious on the near term outlook for equity markets. Europe remains a potential source of stress; however, the Eurozone is showing signs of a very gradual recovery and the European Central Bank remains willing and able to add additional stimulus to ensure the recovery continues. The data coming out of China has remained relatively soft through 2015, adding to concerns that growth will continue to decelerate. The portfolio manager will continue to watch the data closely for signs of expected stabilization following continued gradual stimulus by the government. Should the economy not stabilize, they expect that China will continue to introduce stimulus measures in a controlled and directed manner to try and achieve its targeted growth rate. This approach is geared toward reaching its stated goal of shifting the economy away from an investmentdriven economy toward a consumption driven economy, while also introducing financial reforms aimed at promoting long-term stability. economic data has been mixed, the trend in employment remains solid, consumer confidence is strong, and the housing recovery remains on track. The portfolio manager expects the U.S. economy to continue to regain momentum into U.S. corporate earnings growth remains tepid, due to the strong rise in the U.S. dollar and drop in oil and commodity prices. They will be watching for a modest improvement in earnings growth, as the magnitude of those headwinds dissipates through Following the surprising postponement of the Fed s first rate hike in September, the Fed finally moved in December, raising the Fed Funds rate by 25 bps. The portfolio manager expects subsequent increase(s) to be gradual and measured. The Fed s ability to balance the gradual tapering of monetary stimulus without interrupting the U.S. recovery or damaging investor sentiment will be a key driver of the U.S. economy and equity markets. Within Energy, the portfolio manager s expectation is for oil prices to remain volatile. In the near-term, high inventory levels remain the primary concern, combined with uncertainty about how much new Iranian supply could hit the market as early as Q On the positive side, there has been a modest improvement in the supply situation, including a notable decline in U.S. oil production. The expectation of supply from the U.S. is a continued decline in 2016, while global demand growth remains strong. Supply/demand fundamentals should improve and become more balanced as we move through 2016, and the portfolio manager expects oil prices to gradually recover during this period. A new geopolitical risk was introduced into the oil markets in early 2016 as tensions increased between Saudi Arabia and Iran, potentially leading to supply concerns should the situation escalate materially going forward. The global economic recovery remains fragile, particularly now that the U.S. is engaged in a cycle of tightening amidst a backdrop of low inflation and a dollar rally. With this in mind, the portfolio manager plans to remain well within the risk budget, maintaining a relatively low tracking error and being within the strategy risk limits of sector, industry, regions and countries The Fund is overweight U.S. and underweight Asia and Europe, and the portfolio manager does not expect this to change in the coming periods. Relative to Europe and China, the United States remains the bright spot in the global economy. While recent 4

5 Related Party Transactions Guardian Capital LP, the Manager of the Fund, is considered to be a related party of the Fund. The Manager receives an Administration Fee from the Fund, amounting to 0.22% of the average daily net asset value of the Fund, in return for the payment by the Manager of all the variable operating expenses of the Fund. The Independent Review Committee ( IRC ) has approved the Manager s Policy for this item, and the Manager relies on this approval as a standing instruction from the IRC. The Manager received the Administration Fee and paid Fund expenses in accordance with this Policy during the period. The Fund may invest some of its available short-term cash in units of Guardian Canadian Short-Term Investment Fund, another investment fund managed by Guardian Capital LP, which invests its assets in high-quality shortterm fixed-income securities. As at December 31, 2015, the Fund had invested $708 or 0.0% of its net assets, in units of the Guardian Canadian Short-Term Investment Fund. This activity is consistent with standing instructions from the IRC. Management Fees No management fees are payable or collected for Series I units of the Fund. Series W units are subject to a management fee which is based on a percentage of the average Series NAV during each month, calculated and accrued daily, and payable monthly. The Series W management fee is 1.50% per annum. The table below provides a breakdown of services received in consideration of the management fees, as a percentage of the management fees, for the period. Series W Series I Investment management and other general administration 33.3% n/a Trailer commissions 66.7% n/a 5

6 Past Performance % Series W The performance information shown assumes that all distributions made by the Fund in the periods shown were reinvested in additional units of the Fund. This performance information does not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or other optional charges that would have reduced returns or performance. Past performance of the Fund does not necessarily indicate how the Fund will perform in the future % 11.90%* The performance shown below includes results prior to March 29, 2011 when the Fund was not a reporting issuer. Had the Fund been subject to the additional regulatory requirements applicable to a reporting issuer during such period, the expenses of the Series I units of the Fund would likely have been higher. The financial statements for the period when the Fund was not a reporting issuer, are available on the Manager s website at www. guardiancapitallp.com or upon request. Year-by-Year Returns The following bar charts show the Fund s performance for the period from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2015, and annual performance for each of the prior years shown, and illustrates how the Fund s performance has changed from year to year. The charts show in percentage terms, how much an investment made on the first day of each financial year would have grown or decreased by the last day of that financial year * Inception date - October 1, Annual Compound Returns The table below shows the historical compound returns of the Fund for the periods indicated, as at December 31, The returns of a broad based market index are also shown. 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs Series I (%) MSCI World (%) Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs Since Inception* Series W (%) n/a n/a n/a Series I 26.26% MSCI World (%) n/a n/a n/a % -4.00% 12.96% 8.61% 12.59% 20.63% 15.17% * Inception date - October 1, The MSCI World Index (Net, C$) is designed to be a broad measure of both large and mid cap equities across Developed Countries % %

7 Financial Highlights The following tables show selected key financial information about the Fund and are intended to help you understand the Fund s financial performance for the periods indicated. The information is derived from the Fund s audited annual financial statements. The Fund s Net Assets per Unit (Series I) [1,2] 12 months 12 months 12 months 12 months 12 months ended ended ended ended ended Dec. 31, Dec. 31, Dec. 31, Dec. 31, Dec. 31, Net Assets per unit, Beginning of Period $9.20 $8.70 $8.14 $7.42 $9.09 Increase (decrease) from operations: Total revenue Total expenses (0.05) (0.08) (0.09) (0.03) (0.04) Realized gains (losses) (0.35) (0.64) Unrealized gains (losses) (1.15) 1.04 (1.03) Total increase (decrease) from operations [3] (1.49) Distributions: From income (excluding dividends) From Canadian dividends (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) - (0.01) From foreign dividends (0.22) (0.20) (0.45) (0.21) (0.19) From capital gains (1.32) (0.61) (1.12) - - Return of capital Total Distributions [4] (1.55) (0.82) (1.58) (0.21) (0.20) Net Assets per unit, End of Period $9.55 $9.20 $8.70 $8.13 $7.42 [1] The Fund transitioned to International Financial Reporting Standards ( IFRS ) effective January 1, Because of the transition to IFRS, the net assets per unit at the beginning of 2013 has been restated to agree with the net asset value per unit. For periods after December 31, 2013, the net assets per unit and the net asset value per unit are equal. [2] The information provided for 2015, 2014 and 2013 is in accordance with IFRS. The information for 2012 and 2011 is in accordance with previous Canadian GAAP. [3] Net assets and distributions are based on the actual number of units outstanding at the relevant time. The increase (decrease) from operations is based on the weighted average number of units outstanding over the financial period. [4] Distributions were reinvested in additional units of the Fund. Ratios and Supplemental Data (Series I) 12 months 12 months 12 months 12 months 12 months ended ended ended ended ended Dec. 31, Dec. 31, Dec. 31, Dec. 31, Dec. 31, Total net asset value (000 s) [1] $29,775 $35,840 $31,534 $63,446 $51,911 Number of units outstanding [1] 3,118,621 3,895,823 3,624,640 7,798,250 6,992,694 Management expense ratio [2] 0.25% 0.25% 0.26% 0.25% 0.26% Management expense ratio before waivers and absorptions 0.25% 0.25% 0.26% 0.25% 0.26% Trading expense ratio [3] 0.24% 0.31% 0.35% 0.11% 0.28% Portfolio turnover rate [4] % % % % % Net asset value per unit [1] $9.55 $9.20 $8.70 $8.14 $7.42 [1] This information is provided as at December 31, 2015, December 31, 2014, December 31, 2013, December and December 31, [2] The management expense ratio is based on total expenses (excluding commissions, other portfolio transaction costs and withholding taxes) for the stated period and is expressed as an annualized percentage of daily average net asset value during the period. [3] The trading expense ratio represents total commissions and other portfolio transaction costs expressed as an annualized percentage of daily average net asset value for the period. [4] The Fund s portfolio turnover rate indicates how actively the Fund s portfolio advisor manages its portfolio investments. A portfolio turnover rate of 100% is equivalent to the Fund buying and selling all of the securities in the portfolio once in the course of a year. The higher a fund s portfolio turnover rate in a year, the greater the trading costs payable by the fund in the year, and the greater the chance of an investor receiving taxable capital gains in the year. There is not necessarily a relationship between a high turnover rate and the performance of a fund. 7

8 Financial Highlights The following tables show selected key financial information about the Fund and are intended to help you understand the Fund s financial performance for the periods indicated. The information is derived from the Fund s audited annual financial statements. The Fund s Net Assets per Unit (Series W) [1,2] 12 months 12 months Period from ended ended Sept. 30 to Dec. 31, Dec. 31, Dec 31, Net Assets per unit, Beginning of Period $9.90 $9.41 $10.00 Increase (decrease) from operations: Total revenue Total expenses (0.42) (0.36) (0.07) Realized gains (losses) Unrealized gains (losses) 0.43 (0.02) (0.85) Total increase (decrease) from operations [3] Distributions: From income (excluding dividends) From Canadian dividends (0.01) - (0.01) From foreign dividends (0.09) (0.11) (0.56) From capital gains (1.40) (0.64) (1.22) Return of capital Total Distributions [4] (1.50) (0.75) (1.79) Net Assets per unit, End of Period $10.25 $9.90 $9.41 [1] The Fund transitioned to International Financial Reporting Standards ( IFRS ) effective January 1, Because of the transition to IFRS, the net assets per unit at the beginning of 2013 has been restated to agree with the net asset value per unit. For periods after December 31, 2013, the net assets per unit and the net asset value per unit are equal. [2] All information provided is in accordance with IFRS. [3] Net assets and distributions are based on the actual number of units outstanding at the relevant time. The increase (decrease) from operations is based on the weighted average number of units outstanding over the financial period. [4] Distributions were reinvested in additional units of the Fund. Ratios and Supplemental Data (Series W) 12 months 12 months Period from ended ended Sept. 30 to Dec. 31, Dec. 31, Dec 31, Total net asset value (000 s) [1] $73 $44 $1 Number of units outstanding [1] 7,081 4, Management expense ratio [2] 1.95% 1.95% 2.12% Management expense ratio before waivers and absorptions 1.95% 1.95% 2.12% Trading expense ratio [3] 0.24% 0.31% 0.35% Portfolio turnover rate [4] % % % Net asset value per unit [1] $10.25 $9.90 $9.41 [1] This information is provided as at December 31, 2015, December 31, 2014 and December 31, [2] The management expense ratio is based on total expenses (excluding commissions, other portfolio transaction costs and withholding taxes) for the stated period and is expressed as an annualized percentage of daily average net asset value during the period. [3] The trading expense ratio represents total commissions and other portfolio transaction costs expressed as an annualized percentage of daily average net asset value for the period. [4] The Fund s portfolio turnover rate indicates how actively the Fund s portfolio advisor manages its portfolio investments. A portfolio turnover rate of 100% is equivalent to the Fund buying and selling all of the securities in the portfolio once in the course of a year. The higher a fund s portfolio turnover rate in a year, the greater the trading costs payable by the fund in the year, and the greater the chance of an investor receiving taxable capital gains in the year. There is not necessarily a relationship between a high turnover rate and the performance of a fund. 8

9 Summary of Investment Portfolio As at December 31, 2015 Portfolio Allocation % of Net Asset Value Top 25 Holdings % of Net Asset Value Consumer Discretionary % Consumer Staples % Energy...5.5% Financials % Health Care % Industrials % Information Technology % Materials...4.4% Royalty & Income Trust Units...1.4% Telecommunication Services...3.3% Utilities...2.4% Short-Term Securities...0.7% Other Net Assets...0.6% Geographic Allocation % of Net Asset Value Australia...0.7% Bermuda...2.2% Canada...3.1% Denmark...1.9% Finland...1.5% France...5.0% Germany...2.9% Hong Kong...0.7% Israel...1.3% Japan...9.2% Netherlands...1.4% Singapore...1.6% Spain...1.9% Switzerland...2.7% United Kingdom...6.9% United States of America % Short-Term Securities...0.7% Other Net Assets...0.6% Apple Inc...2.6% Johnson & Johnson...2.2% Microsoft Corp...2.2% JPMorgan Chase & Co...2.0% Facebook Inc...2.0% Novo Nordisk A/S...1.9% CVS Health Corp...1.8% Bank of America Corp...1.8% Wal-Mart Stores Inc...1.7% Verizon Communications Inc...1.7% Gilead Sciences Inc...1.7% Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp...1.6% The Walt Disney Co...1.4% GlaxoSmithKline PLC...1.3% Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd...1.3% Nissan Motor Co. Ltd...1.2% Mizuho Financial Group Inc...1.2% Amazon.com Inc...1.2% The Kroger Co...1.1% Cisco Systems Inc...1.1% Sanofi SA...1.1% Imperial Tobacco Group PLC...1.1% Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc...1.1% Royal Bank of Canada...1.1% Daimler AG...1.1% Top Holdings as a percentage of net asset value % Total Net Asset Value $29,847,249 The Summary of Investment Portfolio may change due to ongoing portfolio transactions of the Fund. A quarterly update is available. If the Fund has invested in other investment funds, the prospectus and other information about the underlying investment funds are available on the internet via 9

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12 GUARDIAN CAPITAL LP 199 Bay Street, Suite 3100 Commerce Court West, P.O. Box 201 Toronto, Ontario M5L 1E8 This document may contain forward-looking statements relating to anticipated future events, results, circumstances, performance or expectations that are not historical facts, but rather represent our beliefs regarding future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that predictions and other forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. We caution readers of this document not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, as a number of factors could cause actual future results, conditions, actions or events to differ materially from the expectations, estimates or intentions expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from management expectations as projected in such forward-looking statements for a variety of reasons, including but not limited to market and general economic conditions, interest rates, regulatory and statutory developments and the effects of competition in the geographic and business areas in which the Fund may invest. We caution that the foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive and that when relying on forward-looking statements to make decisions with respect to investing in the Fund, investors and others should carefully consider these factors, as well as other uncertainties and potential events, and the inherent uncertainty of forward-looking statements. Due to the potential impact of these factors, Guardian Capital LP does not undertake, and specifically disclaims, any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required by applicable law. 12