NJ TRANSIT BUS FLEET STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 2014

Transcription

1 NJ TRANSIT BUS FLEET STRATEGY SEPTEMBER 2014 DRAFT Fleet Bus Strategy - September

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary... i Introduction General Overview Service Planning Overview Vehicle Maintenance Overview Current Fleet Fleet Operated or Contracted by NJ TRANSIT Fleet Leased to Private Carriers Grant Supported Services Overall Fleet Age Ongoing Fleet and Facilities Planning Operating Policies Current Ridership Scheduling Practices Service Level Guidelines Application of the Guidelines Development of Headways Monitoring Spare Ratio Projected Peak Fleet Requirements System and Service Expansion Impact of New Projects and Programs Ridership Forecasting & Methodology Future Bus Rolling Stock Program Vehicle Acquisitions and Retirements Planned Fleet Composition...17 Fleet Bus Strategy - September 2014 TOC 2

3 APPENDIX Appendix A: NJ TRANSIT Bus Service Area...18 Appendix B: Current NJ TRANSIT Bus Fleet...19 Appendix C: Bus Service Planning Guidelines...20 Appendix D: Current Desired Bus Types compared to Current Fleet Mix...33 Appendix E: Contract Carrier Fleet Requirements...41 Appendix F: Bus Replacement Matrix...42 Appendix G: Bus Operations Rolling Stock Replacement Plan...43 Fleet Bus Strategy - September 2014 TOC 3

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The NJ TRANSIT Bus Fleet Strategy (2014) outlines NJ TRANSIT s bus fleet status and plans for new bus purchases through 2020 in response to existing and proposed service levels, ridership trends, and guidelines for service. The primary focus of the Strategy is the upcoming major cruiser bus purchase. NJ TRANSIT is New Jersey s statewide public transit corporation, providing regular route bus service throughout New Jersey and to New York City and Philadelphia through direct operation of 205 bus routes, operation of 57 bus routes by contracted private carriers under the NJ TRANSIT operating authority, and by supporting 15 private bus operators (non-njt routes) by providing buses through a no-cost bus leasing program. NJ TRANSIT directly operated and contracted bus services carry 161 million annual passenger trips. Private carriers participating in the bus lease program carry an additional 31 million annual passenger trips. NJ TRANSIT has established service planning guidelines which set service frequencies based upon ridership levels and type of service. Once developed, detailed bus schedules yield peak vehicle requirements for each bus type. A 15% spare ratio is then applied to each bus type to guide the placement of vehicles at each garage location. NJ TRANSIT s fleet plan is based upon the operation of 31 and 40 transit buses, 40 suburban buses, 40 and 45 cruiser buses, 60 articulated transit buses and 60 articulated suburban buses. NJ TRANSIT maintains vehicles in accordance with manufacturer s recommendations and the NJ TRANSIT Fleet Management Plan. Additionally, minibuses are used in select areas as feeder routes to rail stations and fixed routes in lower density areas. Mini-bus replacement will not be discussed in this Bus Fleet Strategy. Since 1999, ridership on the NJ TRANSIT bus system has grown substantially to a level of approximately 161 million annual bus trips in FY Fleet requirements for the bus system have grown along with the increased ridership through the planning and scheduling of service, which seeks to balance ridership demand with the most efficient vehicle use, while using service planning guidelines as a framework for monitoring and evaluating the efficiency of service. For purposes of evaluating bus route performance and establishing service levels, routes are grouped into geographical and service categories to assure that routes are assessed against their peers. Guidelines have been established for maximum and minimum load factors, service frequencies, and spans of service. Twenty key performance metrics are evaluated for each individual bus route compared against the average performance for routes in each distinct geographical sub-group. The key evaluation metrics are passengers per hour, operational farebox recovery rate, and operational subsidy per passenger. Routes performing below 70% of their peer group average for all three metrics are candidates for remedial action. In addition to peak bus requirements, additional buses are required to provide operating spares. Factors for establishing the 15% spare ratio include annual average bus miles, fleet age, fleet diversity, operating facility locations, training needs, contingency service planning, and the need to quickly respond to ridership growth. Future bus needs take into account the potential impact of new projects and programs which can help to shape future demand for bus service. A number of known regional projects and bus-specific study initiatives are underway that may influence bus fleet requirements in the coming years. The most likely reality expected to influence customer demand for increased bus service is Trans-Hudson growth, which will likely affect NJ TRANSIT s New York interstate commuter bus services. These increased demands for service, however, will face realistic constraints that will affect our ability to respond, including significant traffic management issues that hamper access and circulation at the Port Authority Bus Terminal, severe garage capacity constraints at existing NJ TRANSIT bus facilities, Fleet Bus Strategy - September 2014 i

5 and severe operating budget limitations that make adding service extremely difficult, regardless of growth in passenger demand. During the period covered by this Bus Fleet Strategy ( ), there will not be a need to replace transit or suburban type buses. Articulated buses (both transit and suburban type) will need to be replaced beginning in It is likely that any new design will have fewer seats than current models, so replacing them on a seat for seat basis would increase the number of vehicles needed. The primary focus of this Bus Fleet Strategy is the upcoming replacement of the cruiser bus fleet (both 40 and 45 cruisers) for NJT operation and for the private carriers participating in the bus lease program. After factoring in the existing plans to acquire hybrid electric cruiser buses for the Egg Harbor Township Garage and CNG cruiser buses for the Howell Garage, the net remaining one for one cruiser replacement need is 885 cruisers for NJ TRANSIT and 509 cruisers for the private carriers, for a total purchase requirement of 1,394 cruisers. Given the projected ridership growth in the New York commuter market, uncertainty of issues pertaining to PABT traffic management, garage capacity, and operating fund availability, it would be prudent to establish options in the out years of the cruiser bus purchase that will provide future flexibility to expand the number of vehicles to be purchased, to reflect future conditions that cannot be fully known at this time. Fleet Bus Strategy - September 2014 ii

6 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 GENERAL OVERVIEW NJ TRANSIT is New Jersey s statewide public transit corporation, created by New Jersey s Public Transportation Act of 1979 to provide a coordinated public transit network in the state by operating, subsidizing or contracting for public transit service. Statewide, regular route bus service is provided through three different methods; 1. Direct NJ TRANSIT Operation: NJ TRANSIT directly operates 205 routes, in 19 counties, setting the route, schedule, fares, and operating policy. To deliver these services NJ TRANSIT, through NJ TRANSIT Bus Operations, provides all employees, rolling stock, fleet maintenance and storage at NJ TRANSIT facilities. 2. Contract Operation by NJ TRANSIT: NJ TRANSIT through contracts with private carriers, operates 57 routes in 13 counties. Under the NJ TRANSIT umbrella, contractors operate a series of NJ TRANSIT routes in a geographic area. NJ TRANSIT provides the buses needed to operate these services, sets the route, schedule, fare and operating policy. The bus operator, however, is not an NJ TRANSIT employee, and maintenance and storage of the vehicles are done outside of NJ TRANSIT facilities. 3. Private Carrier Operation: In various areas of the state private carriers also provide regular route service in a specific (exclusive or overlapping) geographic area with their own route authority, and set their own fares, schedules and routes. To support these private operators, NJ TRANSIT has provided no-cost leases of buses to these carriers to replace overage equipment used on these routes. Through direct and contract operations, NJ TRANSIT carries million annual passenger trips and operates 1.1 billion annual bus miles (Fiscal Year 2013). Through Private Carriers, more than 31 million additional annual passenger trips and more than 38 million bus miles are also operated. An extensive network of bus routes is operated by NJ TRANSIT and others throughout New Jersey and to New York City and Philadelphia. Commuter service is provided to the employment centers in New York City, Newark and Philadelphia. Local service is provided in the dense urban centers of Newark, Elizabeth, Paterson, Atlantic City, Camden, Trenton, and Hudson County, as well as in the suburban counties surrounding the New York and Philadelphia metropolitan areas. A small number of mini-bus services are also operated, either as feeder routes to rail stations and other suburban centers or fixed routes in lower density areas. Appendix A is a map of the areas served by directly operated NJ TRANSIT bus routes, contracted routes and the more extensive area served by private carriers, which extends into northwestern New Jersey and Pennsylvania. This strategy outlines NJ TRANSIT s bus fleet status and plans for new bus purchases in response to existing and proposed service levels, ridership trends, and standards for service. 1.2 SERVICE PLANNING OVERVIEW NJ TRANSIT has established service planning guidelines which set service frequency and spans of service based upon ridership levels and type of service. These guidelines take into account the operation of services that are scheduled in direct response to levels of passenger demand as well as services that are operated at minimum policy-based levels. The guidelines also address passenger load standards, equipment utilization, and spacing of bus stops. The initial evaluation of service levels for the development of peak vehicle requirements is generally performed using daily fare box data and Automatic Passenger Counting (APC) ridership data, Fleet Bus Strategy - September

7 supplemented by field checks, as required, providing greater detailed information. From this data, the peak vehicle requirement for each bus type is developed for the various operating garages, based on the highest of the A.M. and P.M. peak hour periods. Over and above the peak fleet requirements at each operating garage, a 15% spare ratio is then applied to guide the placement of vehicles at each location. The NJ TRANSIT fleet strategy is based upon the operation of the following types of buses: 31 and 40 Buses 40 Suburban Buses 40 and 45 Cruiser Buses 60 Articulated Buses 60 Articulated Suburban Buses Appendix B details the existing NJ TRANSIT bus fleet as of June Appendix F details the projected fleet replacements based upon projected ridership and service levels for the services operated directly by NJ TRANSIT and by private carriers under contract to NJ TRANSIT. (NJ TRANSIT also provides for the replacement of overage NJ TRANSIT owned buses leased to private carriers. The existing fleet of buses leased to private carriers and projected replacements are detailed later in this document.) It is important to note that the information in Appendix F differs from the information in the tables in the main body of this document due to variation in retirement cycles as shown in the appendix. The assumptions in the appendix are based on general fleet planning procurement and retirement schedules. By contrast, the tables in the document reflect assumptions about available fleet for service planning purposes. In general, as a result, additional buses are shown in Appendix F as compared to the tables in the main body of the document. 1.3 VEHICLE MAINTENANCE OVERVIEW NJ TRANSIT policy seeks to maintain vehicles in accordance with manufacturer s recommendations, structuring the maintenance program around these guidelines. Volume 3 of the NJ TRANSIT Fleet Management Plan provides details on the practices and procedures to accomplish these maintenance goals. Fleet Bus Strategy - September

8 2.0 CURRENT FLEET 2.1 FLEET OPERATED OR CONTRACTED BY NJ TRANSIT As of 2014, bus services provided directly by NJ TRANSIT or through contract operators were provided through a fleet of diverse vehicles, ranging from 18-passenger minibuses to articulated buses. Appendix B outlines the components of this fleet as of August The specific details and intended service functions of each fleet type are outlined below: Buses: Local routes which experience frequent boarding and alighting require a front and rear door, wide aisles, and seats configured for maximum standing room. NJ TRANSIT currently operates forty-foot and thirty-one foot (low floor, single door) transit buses. Moving forward, thirtyone foot transit buses will only be used in locations where the operating environment requires the shorter wheelbase and lighter axle weights provided by these coaches, or where overall regional ridership levels are consistent with the smaller seating capacity of these buses. One example is the barrier island of Atlantic City where larger, heavier buses cause vibration in adjacent residences. A second example is Morris County, where the local bus operation is operated exclusively with thirtyone foot buses due to ridership characteristics. Forty-foot transit buses will be used for all other applications, to insure sufficient passenger capacity and fleet flexibility. Suburban Buses: Suburban style buses are similar in outward appearance to transit buses but have been outfitted with padded, forward facing (suburban) high-back seats and overhead luggage racks. These buses are used on shorter interstate routes characterized by brief trips and heavier boarding, as well as some longer distance local lines. Articulated Buses: Articulated buses are used on routes where ridership levels warrant the use of higher capacity vehicles. These routes, however, must also be characterized by a minimum of branching (to insure effective vehicle utilization) and acceptance by the communities of the possible impacts of operation of a larger vehicle upon roadside features such as bus stops and parking zones. Cruiser Buses: Cruiser buses are used on longer distance commuter routes to provide a more comfortable ride for passengers over the longer distances. As shown in the tables, some of these cruisers are 45 feet long, offering increased passenger carrying capacity (57 seats as compared to the standard 49 seats provided in 40 foot cruiser). These larger cruiser buses are used wherever garage physical characteristics can support their use in the NJ TRANSIT system. Mini-Buses: Mini-Buses are utilized in suburban or rural areas, generally as feeder or shuttle services operated by contract carriers, serving suburban employment locations and regional rail stations (note: minibus replacements will not be discussed in this Bus Fleet Strategy). Fleet Bus Strategy - September

9 2.2 FLEET LEASED TO PRIVATE CARRIERS NJ TRANSIT also supports the operation of private carriers who provide regular route bus service on their own in the state through the no-cost lease of buses. There are 15 private carriers (or bus owners associations) participating in the program. NJ TRANSIT currently leases 612 buses to Private Carriers in three fleet types for the operation of their own scheduled services: Vehicle Type Total Leased Suburban 0 Articulated 0 40 Cruiser Cruiser 177 Total Buses 612 For the future fleet strategy, NJ TRANSIT will replace these vehicles as they reach the end of their useful service life. Future discussions with the private carriers may be warranted, to discuss interest in replacing 40-foot cruiser buses with 45-foot cruisers, subject to physical garage capacity constraints and operating characteristics. Where warranted and desired, such a replacement would provide expanded seating capacity without any overall change to the number of vehicles to be purchased. 2.3 GRANT SUPPORTED TRANSIT SERVICES NJ TRANSIT also supports a wide range of vanpool, demand responsive and local transit services through federally funded programs such as Section 5310 and 5311 as well as programs funded through state and local sources. Programs include the Senior and Disabled Transportation Program; the Rural Transportation Program; New Freedom; JARC (Job Access Reverse Commute), and the Community Shuttle program. Smaller minibuses and vans are generally provided by NJ TRANSIT to operate these services. NJ TRANSIT works with local sub-recipients in monitoring these services and assists in identifying funds for equipment replacement. Because these services are based on policy and service coverage guidelines, rather than traditional transit market demand, vehicles associated with these services are not part of the equipment replacement analysis in this Bus Fleet Strategy. 2.4 OVERALL FLEET AGE Based upon the various fleet types detailed above, the most recent current fleet report reflecting conditions as of June 2014 established an average overall fleet age of 8.4 years for the NJ TRANSIT directly-operated and contract carrier fleet, not including minibuses. Ongoing fleet replacement programs are designed to ensure, whenever possible, vehicles are replaced at the end of their respective useful lives. This replacement planning provides the lowest possible fleet age, while maximizing the utilization of capital resources. 2.5 ONGOING FLEET AND FACILITIES PLANNING As part of ongoing fleet and facilities planning, NJ TRANSIT routinely reviews its fleet assignment strategy, alternative vehicle types, and garage facilities to insure the ability to continue to effectively and efficiently serve customers needs. Fleet Bus Strategy - September

10 3.0 OPERATING POLICIES 3.1 CURRENT RIDERSHIP Since 1999, ridership on the NJ TRANSIT bus system has grown substantially, from approximately 149 million annual bus trips in Fiscal Year (FY) 1999 to over 160 million annual bus trips in FY Although ridership remains below the FY 2009 peak level, reflecting recent years of economic slowdown, ridership remains at a high level compared to the 15-year trend line. 3.2 SCHEDULING PRACTICES The fleet requirements for a bus system are developed through the actual planning and scheduling of service, which seeks to balance ridership demand with the most efficient vehicle use, while providing reliable, comfortable service in the most effective manner. Service planning guidelines as detailed in Appendix C provide the framework for ongoing monitoring and evaluation of the efficiency of fixedroute bus service. Key considerations include frequency of service and span of service, in the context of matching service supply with key trip demand generators and attractors. In addition, final service levels are dependent upon a variety of factors including availability of resources and the proximity of other services. 3.3 SERVICE LEVEL GUIDELINES Routes are grouped into five categories, as detailed in Appendix C with guidelines for peak and off peak service levels in each group, based on maximum and minimum load factors and frequencies. The primary guideline with respect to vehicle loading is that most passengers should have a seat for at least a major portion of the trip. The guidelines indicate that a seat should be available for 90% of riders trips during most times on all operating days. Peak period service loading for intrastate and short-distance interstate lines are based on the manufacturer s stated vehicle capacity for each bus type operated. For most vehicles operated by NJ TRANSIT, this can be represented as approximately 125% of vehicle load during weekday peak hour periods. For limited and long-distance trips, or high speed services, all passengers should be provided with a seat. Fleet Bus Strategy - September

11 With respect to vehicle headway, different frequency guidelines are suggested for the five service classifications that have been established for service and performance monitoring purposes. More detail is available in Appendix C. In general, based upon past practices, hourly service is deemed to be the policy level for service in the peak period, with service every two hours provided, at a minimum, in the off-peak time periods. 3.4 APPLICATION OF THE GUIDELINES The complexity of the NJ TRANSIT system creates a number of other considerations which can affect the application of service guidelines: Daily and seasonal variation in ridership influence service levels on various lines. Service is normally scheduled to meet the demand of the median day, but may be higher or lower, particularly in the summer, when schedules are adjusted to respond to changes in commuting, school and recreational travel patterns. Service at the shoulders of the peak hour periods will normally operate with somewhat less frequent service, matching the lower ridership levels. Equipment utilization may dictate that the effective minimum level of service be higher than the standard would otherwise indicate. If a route is operating with one bus, the effective minimum is the frequency that can be provided with that vehicle. 3.5 DEVELOPMENT OF HEADWAYS Headways for each bus route are developed using ridership data and the service guidelines detailed above. Headways are then translated into individual run assignments, which represent the service that can be operated by one bus and one operator. These factors serve to establish the required number of vehicles to operate a particular service. The running time required for each trip (by time of day), along with recovery time allowances, and the details of the labor contract all contribute to the detailed calculation of vehicle requirements. The final schedules seek to operate each route as efficiently as possible using vehicles on multiple routes if appropriate and efficient. However, routes are scheduled to maintain service with a particular bus type, and the interchange of varying types of buses is minimized to insure customer comfort and appropriate line capacity. 3.6 MONITORING All bus routes in the NJ TRANSIT system are monitored on a regular basis against the service guidelines. At a macro level, staff reviews the performance statistics generated by the Finance Department. This review occurs at least every fiscal year on an annual basis. Twenty (20) key performance metrics are evaluated for each individual bus route compared with the average performance for routes in each distinct geographical sub-group. Three key metrics are analyzed in depth: passengers per hour, operational farebox recovery rate, and operational subsidy per passenger. Routes that perform below 70% of their peer group average for all three of these performance metrics are considered candidates for remedial action. Actions can range from minor route and/or schedule changes to a proposal for service discontinuance. On a micro level, examination of daily fare register data and detailed Automatic Passenger Counting (APC) data serves as a common method for evaluation of route performance in terms of ridership levels and schedule adherence. Fleet Bus Strategy - September

12 APC data, which includes maximum load analysis at the individual trip level permits rapid identification of areas requiring further investigation either due to potential overcrowding or severe underutilization. APC and fare register data is supplemented by a field data collection staff (2 full-time and 17 part-time staff members). Median daily ridership data by route is collected monthly (for weekdays, Saturdays, and Sundays) and trend data for individual routes and for route sub-groups is analyzed to identify routes where ridership growth or decline is observed. 3.7 SPARE RATIO In addition to peak bus requirements, additional buses are required to provide operating spares. A number of factors impact the actual spare ratio established for a given transit system: Annual average bus miles - The amount of wear and tear experienced by a bus fleet is a direct result of the number of miles operated by that fleet. As the annual miles increase, maintenance frequencies increase, requiring a reasonable percentage of spare buses to support the daily service requirements. NJ TRANSIT currently averages roughly 43,000 annual miles per bus - one of the highest levels in the nation. Fleet Age - One of the major factors contributing to increased maintenance requirements, and the resulting need for increased numbers of spares is overall fleet age. NJ TRANSIT s overall fleet age is 8.4 years, with some sub fleets such as cruiser buses significantly older. Fleet Diversity - The number of different makes and models in the fleet impacts the efficiency with which regular repairs and special campaigns can be conducted. NJ TRANSIT currently operates 12 different bus types, more than the national average. Operating Facility Locations - The geographic dispersion of garages also impacts the ability to share equipment among locations. As a statewide system, NJ TRANSIT maintenance facilities are located to best balance facility size, service needs, as well as operating and capital costs. This strategy, while allowing some interchangeability of routes between locations, can impact the ability of locations to share spare buses. Training NJ TRANSIT maintains an on-going program of Operator & Maintenance training to ensure acceptable levels of competency in both on-street operations as well as day-to-day maintenance. This program requires several buses to be available on a regular basis for use by these training programs and not scheduled for daily service needs. Contingency Service Planning The NJ TRANSIT bus fleet frequently supports the commuter rail system (as well as that of Amtrak and PATH) during accidents and emergencies through substitute service plans. A separate contingency fleet is not maintained for these emergencies and accidents; rather available vehicles are assigned from available spares at nearby facilities, or via cooperative arrangements with private carriers. Quick Response to Ridership Growth NJ TRANSIT must be able to quickly respond to changes in ridership that can create spot overcrowding. Before new quarterly schedules can be prepared, there is often the need to add extra service, especially during peak hours on weekdays, to respond to growth and provide adequate service for customers. In the short term, these additional trips often add to the peak bus requirement for a given bus route, requiring the vehicle to come from the spare fleet at any given garage. NJ TRANSIT uses a spare ratio of 15% for overall fleet planning and, wherever possible, seeks to accommodate these needs within this level of spares. Fleet Bus Strategy - September

13 3.8 PROJECTED PEAK FLEET REQUIREMENTS The fleet mix assigned to bus services is regularly reviewed by NJ TRANSIT to ensure the character of the route is consistent with the type of bus deployed. Adjustments are then made to the desired fleet which is used to guide future bus purchases. Appendix D details the current desired bus types, as compared to the current fleet configuration. The desired fleet is used to develop the highest peak bus requirement for each vehicle type at each operating location, and the nominal spare factor of 15% is added. The highest peak requirement is generally the most recent non-summer peak. However, summer recreational travel demands cause the summer seasonal peak to be the highest NJ TRANSIT peak for cruiser buses. Thus, the peak vehicle requirement used to guide cruiser bus purchases includes the additional summer service needs. Requirements for contract carrier services are determined in a similar manner. The requirements for these contract services are shown in Appendix E. Based on the desired allocation of bus types, and the summer service requirements, the number of buses, excluding contract services and private carriers, required to operate the current NJ TRANSIT service route structure is discussed below. The allocation of fleet types to support this service is detailed in Section 5.2 Planned Fleet Composition. Fleet Bus Strategy - September

14 4.0 SYSTEM AND SERVICE EXPANSION 4.1 IMPACT OF NEW PROJECTS AND PROGRAMS The area of anticipated growth that will likely have the greatest impact upon bus ridership comes from Trans-Hudson activity, largely based upon growth in New York City-based work trips. NJ TRANSIT s Travel Forecasting & Research Department projects that we will experience an 8.5% growth rate in this peak hour period commuter market by There will be major issues related to serving this growth market due to the severe traffic constraints associated with Trans-Hudson movements, especially in terms of peak hour access/egress from the overburdened Port Authority Bus Terminal (PABT). Current levels of bus service already far exceed the operating capacity of this 1950-constructed terminal, leading to consistent weekday PM peak hour delays for buses attempting to enter the terminal in a timely fashion, leading to significant reliability problems that directly affect our customers. NJ TRANSIT is currently working aggressively with the Port Authority of New York/New Jersey (PANYNJ) and the New York City Department of Transportation to discuss traffic management issues and internal terminal operational issues that severely hamper the ability for NJ TRANSIT buses to operate according to published bus schedules in the crucial weekday P.M. peak hour period. There are a number of known regional projects and studies coupled with NJ TRANSIT bus-specific initiatives underway that may influence bus fleet needs in the coming years. While these projects and initiatives have not yet resulted in new services requiring additional fleet expansion, this may change in the future. Existing studies include the: Bergen/Passaic Bus Study, which reviewed both commuter and local bus services operated by NJ TRANSIT and private bus carriers in the Bergen and Passaic County area. Route 9 Bus Shoulder Extension analysis to extend the Route 9 bus shoulder lane. Bergen County BRT Study, which is exploring the potential for Bus Rapid treatments and routes that could connect Bergen County corridors with key employment destinations in the region. The American Dream retail and entertainment complex is scheduled to open in the Meadowlands area in NJ TRANSIT has entered into an agreement with American Dream, which will result in significantly expanded service on three local bus routes (#85, #703, & #770) to provide access for potential employees from the urban hubs in Union City, Paterson, and Hackensack. These expansions are anticipated to add 6 buses to the transit fleet peak requirements. South Jersey BRT Study, which calls for new BRT bus service along the NJ 42 & NJ 55 corridors, connecting Gloucester and Camden County with Center City Camden and Center City Philadelphia. It is anticipated that the initial segment of this proposed service will be operational later in this decade, with an increase of approximately 6 buses to the transit fleet peak requirements (with further growth after full implementation up to a new, net increase of 28 transit buses by 2020 or later). Glassboro-Camden Light Rail (GCL) Study, which is exploring the feasibility of a new, major light rail line connecting Gloucester and Camden Counties with the existing PATCO line in Camden (for access to Center City Philadelphia). It is unknown at this time what the impact of implementation would be on adjacent bus routes now in operation. Northern Branch Light Rail Study, which would connect Bergen and Hudson Counties with additional light rail service. It is unknown at this time what the impact of implementation would be on adjacent bus service. Fleet Bus Strategy - September

15 At this time, it is impossible to accurately predict the impact on bus requirements that may result from any or all of the initiatives described above being implemented. For the timeframe of this Bus Fleet Strategy through 2020, it is important to note that any implementation could have a significant effect on the future bus purchase plan strategy. It is also important to note that there are some realistic constraints that we face as we move forward, as follows: While Trans-Hudson travel growth is a known reality, we cannot add more service to the PABT unless there are major policy and operational changes to area traffic management and internal terminal operations. Currently, there is simply no room to add more service to the PABT, especially during weekday P.M. peak hours. There are severe garage capacity constraints faced by NJ TRANSIT, especially in North Jersey. Implementation of any new major service that would add significantly to peak hour bus requirements would pose a major problem in terms of where the buses could be assigned to operate such service. There is a need for additional garage capacity that must be addressed in the coming years. Severe operating budget constraints hamper NJ TRANSIT s ability to add service. While capital funding may be available to purchase new buses beyond a one for one replacement to address expanded demand or development of new services, operating budget funding availability has not grown and is not anticipated to grow during the near-term future. Without expanded operating funding, it is impossible to significantly add more service to meet new demand, as public transit always operates at a financial deficit. 4.2 RIDERSHIP FORECASTING & METHODOLOGY NJ uses two models, for different markets as described below: the North Jersey Demand Forecasting Model (NJTDFM), and the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) model. In addition, NJ TRANSIT uses demographic forecasts from each of the 3 MPO s in New Jersey to develop non-interstate NY Bus demand. NJ TRANSIT used the current 2013 version of the NJTDFM Model for base year 2010 to estimate rail and Interstate Bus to the Port Authority Bus Terminal (PABT) ridership between 2010 and This NJTDFM model is a revalidated version of the original North Jersey Demand Forecasting Model. The current version has been updated and enhanced as follows: The base year trip tables were updated to represent Year 2010 demand. The path-building, assignment and mode choice model parameters are internally consistent to ensure an appropriate estimate of the Federal Administration s (FTA) Transportation System User Benefits. The model has been updated to represent year 2010 highway and transit facilities available to commuters throughout the region. The model has been updated and validated to replicate Year 2010 ridership count data. The model has undergone a restructuring of time-of-day procedures, to reflect the on-going observed shift from peak to off-peak periods. The model has been updated to reflect within the TRNBUILD path-building algorithm the cost of using NYCT subway service at New Jersey-Manhattan gateways. These were embedded in the form of shadow prices on all connections between NJ services and NYCT subway system. The NJTDFM now properly trades walk vs. transit egress for travelers arriving in Manhattan. The model incorporates currently adopted demographic forecasts made by NJTPA and NYMTC. Fleet Bus Strategy - September

16 The NJTDFM has reworked the regional toll polices to ensure consistency with programmed NJ Turnpike, Garden State Parkway and PANYNJ adopted toll increases as well as PATH fare increases. These changes reflect substantial toll increases to The model was updated with 2010 NJT fare increase and service cutbacks. It also included some minor service enhancements on the rail system to Hoboken and the addition of the North Brunswick station with midline loop and Jersey Avenue expansion. The NJTDFM is a modified 4-step model in which Steps 1 and 2 (Trip Generation and Distribution) have been replaced by a process that develops the person trip table from survey and model-derived data including: Trans-Hudson survey data for all modes New Jersey on-board transit survey data (intra-new Jersey transit travel) NJDOT/NJTPA North Jersey Regional Travel Model (intra-new Jersey auto person trips) Year 2010 Census CTPP Journey-to-Work Data is used for travel from fringe areas to Mercer County New Jersey, Northern New Jersey and New York. This person trip table includes estimates of the total number of trips for each zone-to-zone combination in the modeling area. Separate tables are prepared for two time periods peak and off-peak, and for four commuter market trip purposes home-based work, home-based shop, home-based other, and non-home based. Step 3, Mode Choice, estimates the share of travel occurring on each mode for each zone-tozone combination in each trip table. The mode choice model uses a nested logit structure and was estimated from a combination of stated-preference and revealed-preference surveys. The model subdivides trips into the following modes: Auto Drive-Alone Share-Ride, 2 occupants Share-Ride, 3 occupants Share-Ride, 4 or more occupants Walk Access Commuter Rail Light Rail (e.g., Hudson Bergen LRT) PATH Bus Ferry Long Distance Ferry Drive Access Commuter Rail Light Rail (e.g., Hudson Bergen LRT) PATH Fleet Bus Strategy - September

17 Bus Ferry Long Distance Ferry The mode choice model computes the share of travel occurring on each mode based on the travel characteristics (time, cost, etc.), the socioeconomic characteristics of the travelers, and on the characteristics of the origin and destination. The level-of-analysis is at the zone level and the total demand for travel and the travel characteristic information (time and cost) are separately analyzed for each zone-to-zone combination. In Step 4, Assignment, the zone-to-zone person trip tables are assigned to the best (shortest) path consistent with the travel mode determined in mode choice. Assignment uses network representations of the highway and transit networks. A complementary network analysis process reads these same networks prior to mode choice to develop level-of-service matrices (e.g., time and cost) to characterize each mode for each zone-to-zone combination. These level-of-service matrices are frequently referred to as skim matrices. A critical component of the model development process is to validate its performance and develop confidence that the forecasts do, in fact, match observed ridership levels. The NJTDFM has been validated against comprehensive 2010 counts by mode and major rail, bus and PATH facility (the most recent available). The validation analysis establishes that: Total commuter rail ridership is estimated to within 6 percent for every rail line. New York Penn Station activity is predicted to within 2 percent. Total PATH ridership is over-estimated by roughly 4 percent and the distribution of travel between the North and South tubes is properly replicated. Trans-Hudson bus ridership is underestimated by 2 percent. The NJTDFM was utilized in the Bus Fleet strategy to project both peak period and off-peak period ridership on NJ TRANSIT Interstate Buses to the PABT for growth between 2010 and NJT used this data to estimate the change in PM Peak Period (4-8 PM) ridership leaving the PABT which drives Interstate Bus fleet needs. NJ TRANSIT used demographic forecasts of employment, population, and household growth from the North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority (NJTPA), the MPO for the 13 northern New Jersey Counties to forecast all non-pabt bus ridership in North Jersey. This is essentially local bus ridership in North Jersey. Since about 70% of NJT s local ridership is related to 5 counties, the demographic change between 2010 and 2020 in these five urban core and inner suburban counties of Hudson, Essex, Bergen, Union, and Passaic was used to estimate the change in local bus ridership. For South Jersey, a combination of demographic forecasts that include employment, population, households and the other demographic data like income from the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVPRC), and South Jersey Transportation Planning Organization (SJTPO) are utilized to forecast the change in local bus ridership between 2010 and DVRPC uses demographic and employment data at the county, MCD (Minor Civil Division) and TAZ (zonal) levels for planning activities; but zonal level data is required for modeling. Specific to this Bus Fleet Management Strategy, the analysis of future bus ridership included an assessment of the 2015 DVRPC demographic, population and household forecasts and factored these forecasts with FY 2010 bus ridership data. The growth in employment in major locations of bus ridership like Center City Philadelphia, Camden, and Trenton was used along with growth in population to estimate the change in bus ridership between 2010 and Fleet Bus Strategy - September

18 NJ TRANSIT also has a proposed BRT capital project that would utilize new express bus service with BRT treatments on Routes 42/55 for travel to Camden and Center City Philadelphia. NJT used a version of the new DVRPC VISSUM model to estimate the change in bus ridership in the corridors with the proposed BRT project. The net change in bus ridership from this project was estimated and used to determine additional buses needed to accommodate demand for this project by NJ TRANSIT provides services in three different geographic markets, using a combination of ridership forecasting methods to estimate future bus ridership and bus requirements. Specific to the New York Interstate market, forecasts have been updated to assess projected ridership between 2010 and Interstate travel to New York City - A combination of demographic trends and the North Jersey Demand Forecasting Model (NJTDFM) are used to estimate interstate bus ridership to New York City. Local markets in northern New Jersey - Demographic trends by route group were estimated using the NJTDFM and NJTPA demographic data for local bus ridership in North Jersey. Local markets in southern New Jersey. - Demographic trends and changes in employment and population along with ridership trends were used to forecast ridership for most route groups. In addition, a version of the new Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) VISSUM model was used for the area where NJT has plans for a new BRT project, specifically the Route 42/55 corridor to Camden and Center City Philadelphia.. The combination of these two methods was used to estimate future bus ridership for all South Jersey routes, both Local and Interstate. For the South Jersey BRT, the number of inbound riders to Downtown Camden and Center City Philadelphia was estimated from the model for the 4 hour peak period, 6-10 AM. Based on existing ridership patterns, 67% of the four hour ridership is estimated to occur in the two peak hours, with the shoulder hours covered by buses required in the peak two hours. This implies about 1.5 round trips per peak bus for a two hour period. The new BRT routes were added to the existing #551 route in the corridor, and net change in NJT bus ridership on the #551 and the new routes was estimated to determine the impact of the project on net bus fleet needs. The 2020 bus ridership change from 2010 in the BRT corridor was used to estimate growth in peak period bus needs. The year 2020 also assumes the Glassboro-Camden LRT line has not opened, and does not assume any ridership or bus operating changes due to that project. Fleet Bus Strategy - September

19 The following table details the existing (using 2010 as the base) and forecasted (2020) average weekday ridership (daily trips) for bus services by geographic market. Geographic Market Interstate PABT Daily Ridership 150, , % PM Peak Period Interstate PABT Ridership 40,288 43, % Change in Buses (Interstate) +55 bus trips 80% of PM peak period change North Jersey Local Riders 281, , % South Jersey Local Riders 76,780 78, % Total Non-NYC Ridership 358, , % As displayed in the previous section, NJ s Travel Forecasting & Research Department has projected the level of increased customer demand for Trans-Hudson commuter bus service to/from the PABT for It is projected that the weekday PM peak hour period (encompassing 4:00 PM 8:00 PM) will see an increase of 3,426 passenger trips, resulting in a potential need to add 55 peak period bus trips. 26 of these trips are anticipated to depart during the peak hour of 5:30 PM 6:30 PM. We estimate that approximately 20% of the trips during the peak period but outside of the peak hour can be operated by buses making a second trip, so the estimated increase in bus requirements is 49 vehicles. As approximately 95% of the peak hour vehicles departing from the PABT are cruisers, this can be estimated as a potential increase of 47 cruisers beyond the current peak requirements. When the 15% spare ratio is factored in, this could result in an overall increase in cruiser bus requirements of 54 vehicles by Again, it must be noted that this potential increase must be evaluated in terms of the significant constraints that were discussed in Section 4.1 (PABT access/circulation issues, garage capacity, and operating budget constraints). The demand estimate does, however, frame the potential issue for future out years in the planned cruiser bus purchase, with the recommendation for an option to purchase additional vehicles to handle this possible growth in demand, should other constraints be overcome. The ridership growth projected for North Jersey intrastate and South Jersey services will be absorbed to some degree by existing capacity in the system. There will likely be a need to expand the transit/ suburban bus fleet to handle some portion of this projected demand, subject to the constraints and limitations previously described. Fleet Bus Strategy - September

20 5.0 FUTURE BUS ROLLING STOCK PROGRAM 5.1 VEHICLE ACQUISITIONS AND RETIREMENTS Replacement of overage 40-foot transit and suburban buses has been completed in the NABI purchase that encompassed It must be noted that 30 overage NOVA transit buses have been retained at Orange Garage due to the delivery problems that prevented full implementation of the DesignLine CNG cruiser bus purchase for Howell Garage. When that contract had to be terminated prior to completion, buses had to be reallocated from elsewhere in the NJT system to permit Howell Garage to fully operate. The transfer of buses among various garages needed to accomplish this resulted in a transit/suburban bus shortfall in the system that could only be filled by retaining the 30 overage NOVA transit buses. When the CNG cruiser purchases scheduled for Howell Garage are completed in 2015, the NOVA buses will be retired. In the event of a shortfall of transit/suburban buses due to demand growth, the shortfall will be addressed in the near-term by using buses contained within the standard 15% spare ratio until the next transit/suburban bus purchase. In the future, this shortfall (coupled with requirements identified for American Dream, implementation of the South Jersey BRT project, and local ridership growth in North and South Jersey) will be addressed when the next Bus Fleet Plan is developed, beyond the scope of this Bus Fleet Strategy. 31-foot, low floor NABI transit buses, operated on local routes in Morris County and on selected routes in the Atlantic City area (Egg Harbor Township Garage) were purchased and placed in operation in Future replacement of these buses is also outside of the scope of this 2020 Bus Fleet Strategy and will be addressed in the future Bus Fleet Plan. Articulated buses (both suburban and transit style) will need to be replaced during the life of this Bus Fleet Strategy as they will reach their replacement age in 2014 and 2015, respectively. One point to note is that it is anticipated that future articulated buses will likely be low-floor, with reduced seating capacity (perhaps 5 fewer seats per bus). Replacement of 85 articulated buses on a one for one basis could result in a seating deficit equivalent to 8 additional buses. This issue should be addressed when the articulated bus purchase is developed, in the context of available capital funding and garage capacity physical constraints with respect to storage of potential additional buses of this type. The primary focus of this Bus Fleet Strategy is the upcoming replacement of the cruiser bus fleet (both 40-foot and 45-foot cruisers). Newly purchased cruisers should be 45-feet in length (57 seats) in all cases except where physical garage characteristics prevent these buses from being used. Currently, these physical limitations apply to the Fairview, Market Street, and Oradell Garages. [Note: a new analysis is underway to reevaluate these locations under current conditions to determine if 45-foot cruisers can, in fact, be assigned these garages. The results of this evaluation may change the final mix of 40 & 45-foot cruisers in the bus procurement but will not change the total number of cruisers to be purchased.] The cruiser bus requirement for the next purchase is based upon the desired fleet type by line, as modified by the garage physical limitations as described above. That requirement is then further modified by two existing bus purchase projects: the Egg Harbor Garage cruiser requirement will be partially met by the purchase of 37 hybrid electric/diesel buses and the Howell Garage cruiser requirement will be partially met by the 160 bus CNG vehicle purchase. The modified cruiser bus purchase number for NJT-operated services is, therefore, 885 cruisers ( foot cruisers and foot cruisers, again subject to change by category once the garage capacity review is completed). Fleet Bus Strategy - September