A 360º View. IEEE Industry Day Piscataway NJ Adam T. Drobot. Telcordia Technologies, Inc. Piscataway, NJ 08854

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1 Telecommunication Futures: A 360º View Adam T. Drobot President and CTO Telcordia Technologies, Inc. Piscataway, NJ USA IEEE Industry Day Piscataway NJ th February 2009

2 Setting the Stage 1. The ICT industry 2. Global trends 3. The role of technology 4. What will 5G & 6G look like? 5. The shape of the industry & the underlying infrastructure 6. Customers and institutions 7. Life for workers in telecommunications 8. Regulation and governance 9. Conclusion Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

3 Setting the Stage 1. The ICT industry 2. Global trends 3. The role of technology 4. What will 5G & 6G look like? 5. The shape of the industry & the underlying infrastructure 6. Customers and institutions 7. Life for workers in telecommunications 8. Regulation and governance 9. Conclusion Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

4 The ICT Industry Information & Communication Technology End-to-end from the communications at the bottom of the stack to media and applications at the top In the US, it s 7% of GDP and still growing! Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

5 The ICT Industry Key ingredients ICT Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

6 Setting the Stage 1. The ICT industry 2. Global trends 3. The role of technology 4. What will 5G & 6G look like? 5. The shape of the industry & the underlying infrastructure 6. Customers and institutions 7. Life for workers in telecommunications 8. Regulation and governance 9. Conclusion Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

7 Global Trends: World View over 13 Years 153 countries, Fixed telephone lines Mobile subscribers per 100 population Internet subscribers per 100 population Broadband users per 100 population Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2008 Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

8 Global Trends Fixed Lines Fixed Telephone Lines Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2008 Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

9 Global Trends Fixed Telephone lines per 100 pop. in 2007 d Lines per 100 pop, 2007 Fixe Viet Nam India Myanmar China Russia Germany Canada Taiwan Korea Switz. China Sweden Iceland U.S. Lux. Sweden Japan Spain Portugal Qatar 100 1,000 10, ,000 Niger Size shows population Chile Kuwait Argentina Ecuador Venezuela GDP per Capita, 2007 Bolivia Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2008 Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

10 Global Trends Mobile Subscribers Mobile Subscribers Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2008 Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

11 Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2007 per 100 bile Subs scribers po p, 2007 Mo 150 Lithuania Taiwan Bulgaria Russia Ukraine 100 Venezuela Bolivia Viet Nam Gambia 50 Georgia U.K. Italy Portugal Qatar Spain China Denmark Lux. Iceland Norway Switz. Kuwait Korea U.S. Chile Ecuador Libya Argentina Japan ,000 10, ,000 Niger Size shows population India China Myanmar GDP per Capita, 2007 Canada Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2008 Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

12 Global Trends Internet Users Internet Users Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2008 Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

13 Global Trends Internet Users per 100 pop. in pop, Inte ernet Use ers per Viet Nam 20 India Gambia Jamaica Russia China Barbados Malaysia Korea Japan Taiwan Spain Chile Italy Sweden Argentina Holland China Canada Norway U.S. Lux. Iceland Denmark Switz. UK U.K. Qatar Kuwait 0 Venezuela 100 1,000 10, ,000 Niger Size shows population Myanmar Bolivia GDP per Capita, 2007 Ecuador Portugal Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2008 Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

14 Global Trends Broadband Users Broadband Users Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2008 Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

15 Global Trends Broadband Users per 100 pop. in 2007 Broa adband Users per 100 pop p, Gambia India Viet Nam Russia China Spain Taiwan Portugal Venezuela Ecuador Korea Germany Chile Japan Holland Denmark Italy ,000 10, ,000 Niger Size shows population Myanmar Bolivia GDP per Capita, 2007 Kuwait Iceland Switz. Sweden Norway Lux. U.K. Canada US U.S. Qatar Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2008 Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

16 Setting the Stage 1. The ICT industry 2. Global trends 3. The role of technology 4. What will 5G & 6G look like? 5. The shape of the industry & the underlying infrastructure 6. Customers and institutions 7. Life for workers in telecommunications 8. Regulation and governance 9. Conclusion Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

17 Role of Technology Technology Curves A Li Livingston i t curve showing the evolution of accelerator energy from 1930 until Energy of colliders is plotted in terms of the energy of particles colliding with a proton at rest to reach the same center of mass energy. 100,000 TeV 10,000 TeV Livingston Plot LHC, CERN Large Hadron Collider 1,000 TeV 100 TeV Proton Storage Rings Colliders Electron Proton Colliders Particle En nergy 10 TeV 1T TeV 100 GeV 10 GeV 1 GeV Electron Synchrotrons Proton Synchrotrons Linear Colliders Electron Positron Storage Ring Colliders Electron Linacs Synchrocyclotrons Protons Linacs 100 MeV Betatrons Cyclotrons Sector-Focused Cyclotrons 10 MeV Electrostatic Generators 1 MeV Rectifier Generators Year of Commissioning Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

18 Role of Technology Computing & Storage Computing Storage Grid Computing Quad Core A t Autonomic i Computing C ti Pentium Duo Core5 Blades Pentium 4 Pentium III Multicore At constant t t cost! t! Today Today I286/I386 IBM 360/ Latent Semantic Indexing 60%CGR 10 4 I In-memory D t b Databases Pentium IIII Pentium Pentium Pentium I486 Areal De ensity (Mbits / in2) Performance (on log scale) %CGR 10 1 Today 40%CGR Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

19 Role of Technology Computing Speed and Cost 1.E E E MIPS Speed Cost E-04 1 $M per MIP 1.E E Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

20 Role of Technology Moore s Law: From single transistors to CMP MIT/IBM R Itanium 2 Floating Point Integer Core MIT/IBM Raw 4004 Pentium 4 DecodeFetch Bus Trace Control Cache L2 Data FPU Cache MMX/SSE Renamin ng eger ore Inte C µop Scheduling 386 L2 Data Cache 486 Pentium P2 P4 P3 Itanium 2 Itanium # transistors 1,000,000, ,000,000 10,000,000 1,000, , Moore s Law ,000 1, Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

21 Role of Technology Storage Capacity and Cost 10,000,000 $100, ,000, ,000 10,000 Capacity * $10, $1, $ ,000 Petabytes Shipped 100 Cost * $ $1.00 Cost per Gigabyte 10 $ $ Sources: IDC, "1999 Winchester Disk Drive Market Forecast and Review, Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2000 *Telcordia projected capacity & costs Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

22 Role of Technology Software Agents, Service Oriented Architectures Java, J2EE.NET Com mplexity C, COBOL, Fortran, Ada C++, Smalltalk Object -Oriented Development Component Based Development Model Driven Architectures Policy Based Designs Agents Service Oriented Architectures Structured Programming g Today Line es of Code Per Fu nction Point Programming Language Evolution Assembler C Java, C++ Languages, in decreasing order of verbosity Perl Rang ge of Errors Per K l ines of code Software Quality by Industry Auto C&C Military Telecom WWW Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

23 Role of Technology Software Integration Level Autonomous Software Web Services Integration Level Agents Single Functions Numerical Libraries Unix Software Tools Class Libraries Year Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

24 Role of Technology Software Complexity Size of Linux Kernel across Releases Mega abytes Release Date Source of data: Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

25 Role of Technology Networks & Interfaces User Interfaces Networks SCI Pe erformance Ad-hoc Networks 1000 OCDMA HIPPI Gb Ethernet Ethernet Interconnects 10g Ethernet PCI p Express OCN OC3 AutoRF Infiniband Infiniband WANs DS3 ATA 100 FChan Access Access IDE DS1 SCSI G Services A li Appliances 10 3 Plasma LCD Today CRT 10 2 Today ST Surface e Area of Disp play Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

26 Role of Technology Content Delivery Quantity and Cost (USA ) 1,000,000 Trillion words transmitted per year 100, TV 10,000 1, Radio CATV Movies Phone Data Communication FAX Telegram $1 $10 $100 Cost of transmitting 1000 words (1972 dollars) Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

27 Setting the Stage 1. The ICT industry 2. Global trends 3. The role of technology 4. What will 5G & 6G look like? 5. The shape of the industry & the underlying infrastructure 6. Customers and institutions 7. Life for workers in telecommunications 8. Regulation and governance 9. Conclusion Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

28 What will 5G & 6G look like? Cellular Technology Evolution: 2G, 3G, 4G 2G 3G 4G IDEN WIDEN HSDPA HSUPA HSPA+ EDGE GSM GSM/GPR3 TD-SCDMA PDC WCDMA d e n & Mesh TDMA (CFDM) LTE, UMB, n CDMA 9-05A CDMA 9-05B CDMA2000 1xEV-DO 1xEV-DOa 1xEV-DOb Latency: >200ms ms <100ms <20ms Data rate: 20 kb/s ~500 kb/s up to 7.2 Mb/s up to 50 Mb/s Source: Deutsche Bank (March 2008) Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

29 What will 5G & 6G look like? Another ng Roadmap Source: mitf Roadmap, Wireless Week, Yokosuka Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

30 What will 5G & 6G look like? Research Voice Wireless, News Text Mobility Ubiquity Video on the Spot, Alerts Physical Sciences 3G and 4G Networks Anticipation Video On Demand, Movies Speed Bandwidth Immediacy Relevance Voice Fixed 5G and 6G Service Networks Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

31 Setting the Stage 1. The ICT industry 2. Global trends 3. The role of technology 4. What will 5G & 6G look like? 5. The shape of the industry & the underlying infrastructure 6. Customers and institutions 7. Life for workers in telecommunications 8. Regulation and governance 9. Conclusion Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

32 Shape of the industry & underlying infrastructure: Network Layers global national regional metro local Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

33 Shape of the industry & underlying infrastructure Locations of cellular towers in the US Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

34 Setting the Stage 1. The ICT industry 2. Global trends 3. The role of technology 4. What will 5G & 6G look like? 5. The shape of the industry & the underlying infrastructure 6. Customers and institutions 7. Life for workers in telecommunications 8. Regulation and governance 9. Conclusion Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

35 Customers and Institutions Customers Consumers Small to mid enterprises Corporate Enterprises Government, state, local Military Service Providers Supply chain of capabilities Original equipment manufacturers Education Health care Supply chain of components Media Industry Creative talent Advertising Support Infrastructure Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

36 Setting the Stage 1. The ICT industry 2. Global trends 3. The role of technology 4. What will 5G & 6G look like? 5. The shape of the industry & the underlying infrastructure 6. Customers and institutions 7. Life for workers in telecommunications 8. Regulation and governance 9. Conclusion Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

37 Life for workers in telecommunications People Industry is global Change is a constant Roles, responsibilities, authority, culture Processes Open Visible Cross-connected Tools Power applications Automation Devices Access Modes of interaction Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

38 Setting the Stage 1. The ICT industry 2. Global trends 3. The role of technology 4. What will 5G & 6G look like? 5. The shape of the industry & the underlying infrastructure 6. Customers and institutions 7. Life for workers in telecommunications 8. Regulation and governance 9. Conclusion Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

39 Regulation and Governance Formal regulatory International National Local Standards Codified De facto Consensus Markets Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

40 Setting the Stage 1. The ICT industry 2. Global trends 3. The role of technology 4. What will 5G & 6G look like? 5. The shape of the industry & the underlying infrastructure 6. Customers and institutions 7. Life for workers in telecommunications 8. Regulation and governance 9. Conclusion Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

41 Conclusion ICT drives Productivity Economic Activity New Social Structures Creation of Frameworks for Progress It s an Exciting World! Moving at an exponential pace Engineers are building the future You ain t seen nothing yet! Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

42 Thank you! Piscataway NJ 5 Feb

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