Macro Research Andean Macro Weekly Report
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- Stanley Dorsey
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1 Macro Research Andean Macro Weekly Report Chile: Chilean economy grew 2.6% in Sep-15 Last week s highlights The Chilean economy grew 2.6% y/y in Sep-15, above the market consensus (2.2%) and our estimate (2.1%). Growth in Sep-15 was driven by services (whose monthly growth is not published) and manufacturing production (1.8% y/y). With this result, the 3Q15 posted a preliminary growth of 2.1% y/y; official quarterly figures will be published on November 18 th. According to the INE, Oct-15 inflation stood at.4% m/m, above the market s estimate (.3%) and our expectation (.2%). During this month, upward pressures on inflation were mainly explained by the rise in food and non-alcoholic beverages (.8% m/m), and by housing services (.6% m/m) prices. With this result, annual inflation decelerated to 4.% y/y. Main data and events to come On Thursday, the BCCh will hold its Nov-15 monetary policy meeting. We expect no movements in the policy rate. Colombia: Inflation strongly surprised to the upside for the third consecutive month in Oct-15 as food and tradable prices do not take a breath Last week s highlights According to DANE, Oct-15 inflation stood at +.68% m/m, below Sep-15 s (.72%) but well above market consensus (.4%) and our expectation (.38%). With this result, the yearly figure accumulated an impressive increase of 115bp in the last two months, reaching 5.9%. Food and tradable prices led the advance in Oct-15, once again. Food prices jumped 1.38% m/m after rising 1.29% in Sep-15. This is remarkable as October has been historically characterized by negative prints (e.g. 214: -.2%; 213: - 1.%). Indeed, the m/m variations observed during Sep-15 and Oct-15 are the highest for these months since 1997, when the last strong El Niño event occurred. MACRO RESEARCH This report is property of IM Trust S.A. and/or Credicorp Capital Colombia S.A Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or Credicorp Capital S.A.A. and/or its subsidiaries (hereinafter jointly called Credicorp Capital ), therefore, no part of this the material or its content, nor any copy of it may altered in any way, transmitted, copied or distributed to any third party without prior and express written consent of Credicorp Capital. In making this report, Credicorp Capital has relied on information from public sources. Credicorp Capital has not verified the truthfulness, completeness or accuracy of the information accessed, nor has audit the information in any way. Accordingly, this report does not constitute a statement, assertion or guarantee (express or implied) as to the truth, accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or any other written or oral information furnished to any person and/or their advisors.
2 Undoubtedly, this is not a coincidence as recent information suggests that the current climatic event could have a similar intensity to the one observed in Given this scenario, food prices are responding to reduced rainfall across the country. On the other hand, it is worth mentioning that in the presentation of its inflation report, the governor of BanRep s Board, José Dario Uribe, mentioned that inflation may close 216 slightly above 4%. We now expect inflation to reach 6.15% by year-end but we continue to see it below 4% by Dec-16. Furthermore, the BanRep may continue to tighten its monetary policy. Inflation expectations will remain a key factor. In any case, the better-than-expected activity figures in recent months give the BanRep more room to act if necessary. A 25bp hike in the Nov- 15 meeting seems now more likely. Exports went down 43.4% y/y in Sep-15, from USD 5.1 bn to USD 2.9 bn, reaching its 12 th consecutive month of strong drops. Unsurprisingly, sales of fuels and products from extractive industries continues to be the main driver of exports plunge, posting a contraction of 58.6% y/y, which continues to be mainly explained by the drop of oil and oil derivatives sales (-6.2% y/y); likewise, the amount of exported barrels contracted for the fourth consecutive time (-1.4% y/y). Furthermore, the external sales of the groups of manufactured goods and agricultural products also contracted during Sep-15 (15.6% and.8%, respectively). With this result, YTD exports decreased 34.9% y/y. Main data and events to come On Friday, BanRep will publish the minutes of its most recent meeting, when a surprising 5bp rate hike was performed. Peru: BCRP announced new measures to reduce dollarization of credits Last week s highlights Last week, the Central Bank announced new measures to limit further the use of dollars in credits (dollarization ratio in sep-15: 3.%), including car loans and mortgages, in order to reduce exposure to FX rate. As of Dec-16, additional reserves will be set aside by financial institutions that exceed 8% of dollar loans from Sep-13 and 7% in their outstanding mortgage and car loans as of Feb-13. The measure won t affect loans for exports or financing of more than 3 years. The Ministry of Production announced the opening of a second anchovy season, setting the quota at 1.1 million tons. Also, ENFEN reduced the probability of an extraordinary El Niño Phenomenon during the summer from 15% in Oct- 15 to 5% in Nov-15. We expect the economy to grow around 3.5% in 4Q15, the most dynamic quarter of 215, due to the growth of the fishing industry thanks to the 2 nd season opening, increasing mining production and the recovery of public investment. The FX rate closed at 3.314, its highest print since Apr-6. Year-to-date, the local currency has depreciated 11.2% against the USD, while on an annual basis, the currency has lost 13.1% of its value against the greenback. Main data and events to come This Thursday, the Board of the BCRP will hold its monthly meeting, we expect it to keep the reference rate unchanged at 3.5%. On Sunday, INEI will publish Sep-15 s economic activity data.
3 MILA indicators (monthly changes unless noted otherwise) MILA - Previous week Event Country Frequency Period Previous Last Survey Surprise CPI YoY (%) Chile Monthly October CPI MoM (%) Chile Monthly October Economic Activity MoM (%) Chile Monthly September Economic Activity YoY (%) Chile Monthly September PPI Domestic MoM (%) Colombia Monthly October Exports FOB (USD MM) Colombia Monthly September CPI YoY (%) Colombia Monthly October CPI MoM (%) Colombia Monthly October CPI YoY (%) Peru Monthly October CPI MoM (%) Peru Monthly October Wholesale Price Index MoM (%) Peru Monthly October MILA - This week Event Country Date Frequency Period Previous Last Survey Trade Balance (USD MM) Chile 11/9/215 Monthly October Exports Total (USD MM) Chile 11/9/215 Monthly October Copper Exports (USD MM) Chile 11/9/215 Monthly October Overnight Rate Target (%) Chile 11/12/215 Monthly November Trade Balance (USD MM) Peru 11/9/215 Monthly September Reference Rate (%) Peru 11/12/215 Monthly November
4 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15* Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Aug-1 Jun-2 Apr-3 Feb-4 Dec-4 Oct-5 Aug-6 Jun-7 Apr-8 Feb-9 Dec-9 Oct-1 Aug-11 Jun-12 Apr-13 Feb-14 Dec-14 Oct-15 May-8 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 ene-9 may-9 sep-9 ene-1 may-1 sep-1 ene-11 may-11 sep-11 ene-12 may-12 sep-12 ene-13 may-13 sep-13 ene-14 may-14 sep-14 ene-15 may-15 sep-15 ene-13 mar-13 may-13 jul-13 sep-13 nov-13 ene-14 mar-14 may-14 jul-14 sep-14 nov-14 ene-15 mar-15 may-15 jul-15 sep-15 November 9 th 215 Chile: Economic activity Chile: Inflation 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% Imacec Imacec (% change m/m, right axis) 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % IPC IPCX IPCX1 5.1% 4.% Source: BCCh Source: INE Colombia: CPI: total, food and ex-food Colombia: Trade balance (USD mn) 16 1, 7, Total Food Ex-food 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, Trade balance Exports (right axis) Imports (right axis) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Source: DANE Source: DANE Peru: GDP Peru: FX rate and BCRP s spot sales (USDPEN, USD mn) BCRP's spot sales (right axis) USDPEN GDP Non-primary GDP Primary GDP (right axis) Source: BCRP, Macro Research Source: BCRP
5 Important Disclosures This report is property of IM Trust S.A. and/or Credicorp Capital Colombia S.A Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or Credicorp Capital S.A.A. and/or its subsidiaries (hereinafter jointly called Credicorp Capital ), therefore, no part of this the material or its content, nor any copy of it may altered in any way, transmitted, copied or distributed to any third party without prior and express written consent of Credicorp Capital. In making this report, Credicorp Capital has relied on information from public sources. Credicorp Capital has not verified the truthfulness, completeness or accuracy of the information accessed, nor has audit the information in any way.. Accordingly, this report does not constitute a statement, assertion or guarantee (express or implied) as to the truth, accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or any other written or oral information furnished to any person and/or their advisors. Unless otherwise stated, the information used in this report is confidential, nor is privileged information that may mean the violation of the rules of the stock market, or that it could mean failure to comply with copyright legislation. This report is not intended and shall not be understood in any way as to: a) predict the future or guarantee a specific financial result. b) ensure the fulfillment of the scenarios described in it. c) an investment advice or opinion that could be considered as Credicorp Capital recommendations. The information contained in this report is only for referential purposes. While reading it, you should consider that the information contained in this report may be oriented to a specific segment of clients or investors, with a certain risk profile that may not be yours. Unless otherwise stated, this report does not contain investment recommendations or other suggestions that may be understood to be given under the stock market intermediaries special duty to clients classified as investors. When recommendations are made, the report will clearly specify the investors risk profile to which the recommendation is intended. Credicorp Capital can seek and/or conduct business with companies that are mentioned in the report, and they can also execute buying and selling transactions of shares that are mentioned. It is important to state that the fluctuation in exchanges rates can have adverse effects on investments values. It is client responsibility to determine how to use of the information contained in this report. Hence, he is the sole responsible for investment decisions or any other operation he might perform in the stock market based on this report. In other words, the investment or operation result made by the client using the information contained in this report is of its sole responsibility. Credicorp Capital does not assume any responsibility, obligation or duty for any action or omission derived from the use of this document. Credicorp Capital recommends to their clients to ask for professional advice from financial, legal, accounting, tax experts before adopting an investment decision. Under no circumstances the information contained in this report may be considered as a financial, legal, accounting or taxation opinion, neither as a recommendation or investment advice.
6 ANDEAN RESEARCH TEAM MACRO RESEARCH CONTACT LIST Hugo Horta Head of Capital Markets # (511) Ext 3688 ANDEAN SALES & TRADING EQUITY SALES & TRADING CREDICORP CAPITAL Banco de Crédito BCP Hernán Arellano Head of Equities COLOMBIA PERU # (562) Daniel Velandia Carlos Prieto Head of Research & Chief Economist Chief Economist Javier Günther Marilyn Macdonald Cristián Castillo carlosprietob@bcp.com.pe Equity Sales International Equity Sales International Sales Trader International # (571) Ext 155 # (511) Ext 3265 jgunther@credicorpcapital.com mar_macdonald@btconnect.com ccastillo@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (4477) # (786) Camilo A. Durán Joao Ribeiro Karla Farro Economist Economist Economist Cristopher DiSalvatore caduran@credicorpcapital.com jribeiros@bcp.com.pe kfarro@bcp.com.pe Institutional sales # (571) Ext 1383 # (511) Ext 3638 # (511) Ext 3715 cdisalvatore@credicorpcapital.com # (786) CHILE Junior Aguilar José Rivera Economist Economist CHILE COLOMBIA PERÚ Paulina Yazigi jaguilar@bcp.com.pe Joseriverae@bcp.com.pe Head of Research & Chief Economist # (511) Ext 3755 # (511) Ext 3317 René Ossa Juan A. Jiménez Rodrigo Zavala pyazigi@credicorpcapital.com Equity Sales International Head of Equity Sales International Head of Equity - Peru # (562) Fernando Salgado Diego Díaz Pator reneossa@credicorpcapital.com jjimenez@credicorpcapital.com rzavala@credicorpcapital.com Economist Economist # (562) # (571) Ext 171 # (511) Ext 3644 Andrés Osorio fernandosalgado@bcp.com.pe diegodiazp@bcp.com.pe Economist # (511) Ext # (511) Ext 3317 Christian Munchmeyer Santiago Castro Úrsula Mitterhofer aosorio@credicorpcapital.com Sales & Trading International Sales & Trading International Sales & Trading # (562) cmunchmeyer@credicorpcapital.com scastro@credicorpcapital.com umitterhofer@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 1344 # (511) Ext EQUITY & FIXED INCOME RESEARCH FIXED INCOME SALES & TRADING CHILE COLOMBIA PERÚ Felipe García Head of Fixed Income Carolina Ratto Mallie Daniel Velandia César Cuervo fgarcia@credicorpcapital.com Senior Associate Head of Research & Chief Economist Head of North Andean Equity Research # (571) Ext 128 cratto@credicorpcapital.com dvelandia@credicorpcapital.com ccuervo@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 155 # (571) Ext 112 Christian Jarrin RM Fixed Income Offshore Arturo Prado César Cuervo Héctor Collantes cjarrin@credicorpcapital.com Senior Analyst: Natural Resources Head of North Andean Equity Research Head of Equity Research # (571) aprado@credicorpcapital.com ccuervo@credicorpcapital.com hcollantes@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 112 # (511) Ext 3352 CHILE COLOMBIA PERÚ Tomás Sanhueza Jaime Pedroza Iván Bogarín Gonzalo Covarrubias Carlos Sanchez Alfredo Bejar Analyst: F&B, Healthcare, Transport Senior Analyst: Utilities Senior Analyst: Retail & Others Head of Sales & Trading Head of Fixed Income Trading Head of Fixed Income / FX Trading tsanhueza@credicorpcapital.com jpedroza@credicorpcapital.com ibogarin@credicorpcapital.com gcovarrubias@credicorpcapital.com csanchez@credicorpcapital.com alfredobejarg@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 125 # (511) Ext 3355 # (562) # (571) # (511) Ext Paulina Yazigi Juan C. Domínguez Jasmine Helme Belén Larraín Camilo Moreno Evangeline Arapoglou Head of Research & Chief Economist Senior Analyst: Banks Senior Analyst: Mining Head of International FI Sales Head of Sales Fixed Income Trader pyazigi@credicorpcapital.com jcdominguez@credicorpcapital.com jhelme@credicorpcapital.com blarrain@credicorpcapital.com cmoreno@credicorpcapital.com earapoglou@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 126 # (511) Ext 3665 # (562) # (571) # (511) # (511) Felipe Lubiano Carlos E. Rodriguez Irvin León Guido Riquelme Andrés Valderrama Tatiana Dasso Senior Fixed Income Analyst Analyst: GEA & infrastructure Senior Analyst: Fixed Income Head of Local FI Sales Fixed Income Trader Fixed Income Sales flubiano@credicorpcapital.com cerodriguez@credicorpcapital.com ileon@credicorpcapital.com griquelme@credicorpcapital.com jvalderramma@credicorpcapital.com tdasso@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 1365 # (511) Ext # (562) # (571) # (511) Paulina Valdivieso Sebastián Gallego Alberto Zapata Rafael Gaete José Andrés Riveros Santiago de Aubeyzon Fixed Income Analyst Analyst: Oil and Gas Analyst: Fixed Income International Fixed Income Sales Fixed Income Trader Fixed Income Sales pvaldivieso@credicorpcapital.com sgallego@credicorpcapital.com azapatag@credicorpcapital.com rgaete@credicorpcapital.com jriveros@credicorpcapital.com sdeaubeyzonp@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 1594 # (511) Ext 3618 # (562) # (511) Ext 118 # (511) Andrés Cereceda Sergio Ferro Tamara Vasquez Benjamín Diaz Analyst Analyst: Macro & Fixed Income Research Assistant Local Fixed Income Sales acereceda@credicorpcapital.com sferro@credicorpcapita.com tamaravasqueza@credicorpcapital.com bdiaz@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 169 # (511) Ext # (562) Frederic Cartallier Camilo A. Durán Catalina Luna Analyst Economist Research Assistant fcartallier@credicorpcapital.com caduran@credicorpcapital.com cluna@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 1383 # (511) Ext 4332 Andrés Osorio Jessica Carvajal Economist Research Assistant aosorio@credicorpcapital.com jecarvajal@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 157 Lourdes Alamos Nicolás Torres Research Coordinator & Holdings Analyst Research Assistant lalamos@credicorpcapital.com research@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 121
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