# SPEA-V 506 (25223): Statistical Analysis for Effective Decision Making (3 cr.)

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1 School of Public and Environmental Affairs Indiana University - Purdue University Indianapolis SPEA-V 506 (25223): Statistical Analysis for Effective Decision Making (3 cr.) Instructor: Jerome Dumortier Time and Location: Tuesday 6:00 pm 8:40 pm in BS 2008 Office and Contact: BS 4074, Phone: (317) , Office Hours: Monday 4:45 5:45 pm, Tuesday 4:45 5:45pm, and Friday 8:45-10:45 am. Course Bulletin Description Non-calculus survey of concepts in probability, estimation, and hypothesis testing. Applications of contingency table analysis and analysis of variance, regression, and other statistical techniques. Computer processing of data emphasized. Course Objective This is a graduate level statistics course focusing on the statistical analysis of public and environmental affairs. It will teach students the skills necessary to carry out statistical analysis as well as the basic theory that enables and constrains the application of statistics to real world data. The course emphasizes on teaching the fundamentals of statistics, the practical application of statistics, the interpretation of statistical data, and the use of the statistical software STATA. The course covers topics such as conditional probability, probability distributions, joint distributions, covariance, correlation, the law of large numbers, the central limit theorem, graphical and numerical summaries of data, simple and multivariate regression, hypothesis testing, sampling, estimation, and confidence intervals. At the conclusion of the course, students will be able to do the following: Calculate and interpret frequency distributions, measures of central tendency, and measures of dispersion Understand the nature and application of basic probability distributions Develop sampling strategies, understand sampling distributions, and calculate confidence intervals for sample statistics Conduct hypothesis tests Do simple and multiple regression analyses, interpret the relevant statistics, and conduct the basic tests of hypotheses Develop basic multiple regression models with an understanding of the problems encountered and methods for creating more elaborate multiple regression models Know how to use STATA Although there are no prerequisites, it is highly recommended that each student has completed an undergraduate statistics and mathematics class. This course will use a large amount of mathematics and it is strongly recommend refreshing your memory. The level of presentation, the use of examples, and the time allocated to the topics are based on this assumption. Any student who has not had such preparation should anticipate undertaking self-directed remedial work in order to fully comprehend the topics. Such remedial activities include working 18 August 2014 Page 1 of 10

5 Fundamental of Probability Week 1: 26-Aug Week 2: 2-Sep Week 3: 9-Sep Week 4: 16-Sep Week 5: 23-Sep Lecture 1: Introduction to the course, basic mathematical tools, and introduction to probability Chapter 1 and 2 ( ) Lecture 2: Conditional probability and independence, discrete and continuous random variables Chapter 3, 4, and 5 Lecture 3: Measures of central tendency and variability, joint distributions, and independence Chapter 7 ( , 7.4) and 9 Homework 1 due Lecture 4: Covariance, correlation, the law of large numbers, and the central limit theorem Chapter 10, 13 (13.1, ), and 14 Homework 2 due Lecture 5: Graphical and numerical summaries Chapter , , and 16 Fundamentals of Statistics Week 6: 30-Sep Week 7: 7-Oct Week 8: 14-Oct Week 9: 21-Oct Lecture 6: Basic statistical models and unbiased estimators Chapter 17 and 19 Homework 3 due Lecture 7: Efficiency, mean squared error, and the method of least squares Chapter 20 (20.1 and 20.2) and 22 MIDTERM EXAMINATION Fall Break (no class) Schedule (continued) 18 August 2014 Page 5 of 10

6 Week 10: 28-Oct Week 11: 4-Nov Week 12: 11-Nov Lecture 8: Confidence intervals Chapter 23 (23.1, 23.2, 23.4) and 24 Homework 4 due Lecture 9: Hypothesis testing, t-test, and comparing two samples Chapter 25, 26, 26, and 28 Lecture 10: Introduction to STATA STATA lecture in BS 1000 Homework 5 due Fundamentals of Regression Analysis Week 13: 18-Nov Week 14: 25-Nov Week 15: 2-Dec Week 16: 9-Dec Week 17: 16-Dec Lecture 11: Regression I Readings will be assigned Lecture 12: Regression Analysis with STATA STATA lecture in BS 1000 Readings will be assigned Homework 6 due Lecture 13: Regression II Readings will be assigned Homework 7 due Lecture 14: Regression III Readings will be assigned FINAL EXAM DUE AT 6:00 PM VIA CANVAS Syllabus Addendum: SPEA 2014 Policies There are a number of campus-wide policies governing the conduct of courses at IUPUI. These can be found at Additional information for SPEA courses is below. Civility and Disorderly Conduct SPEA, which is a professional school, expects students to conduct themselves in a courteous and civil manner in interactions with professors and fellow students. This requires each person to be courteous, tolerant, and respectful during interactions with one another in all interactions, including face-to-face interactions, , and telephone conversations. Examples of discourteous behavior during class include reading the newspaper, working crossword puzzles, listening to headphones, talking or laughing with other, arriving late, using computers to surf the web, allowing cell phones to ring or sending text messages, or other non-class activities. The use of language, tone, or gestures that are inappropriate or offensive is also discourteous. These 18 August 2014 Page 6 of 10

8 Under this prohibition, a student must not make any unauthorized use of materials obtained from commercial term paper companies or from files of papers prepared by other persons. e) A student must not collaborate with other persons on a particular project and submit a copy of a written report which is represented explicitly or implicitly as the student's individual work. f) A student must not use any unauthorized assistance in a laboratory, at a computer terminal, or on field work. g) A student must not submit substantial portions of the same academic work for credit or honors more than once without permission of the instructor to whom the work is being submitted. h) A student must not alter a grade or score in any way. 2) Fabrication. A student must not falsify or invent any information or data in an academic exercise including, but not limited to, records or reports, laboratory results, and citations to the sources of information. 3) Plagiarism. A student must not adopt or reproduce ideas, words, or statements of another person without appropriate acknowledgment. A student must give credit to the originality of others and acknowledge an indebtedness whenever he or she does any of the following: a) Quotes another person's actual words, either oral or written; b) Paraphrases another person's words, either oral or written; c) Uses another person's idea, opinion, or theory; or d) Borrows facts, statistics, or other illustrative material, unless the information is common knowledge. 4) Interference. a) A student must not steal, change, destroy, or impede another student's work. Impeding another student's work includes, but is not limited to, the theft, defacement, or mutilation of resources so as to deprive others of the information they contain. b) A student must not give or offer a bribe, promise favors, or make threats with the intention of affecting a grade or the evaluation of academic performance. Communication between Faculty and Students In order to verify the identity of all parties involved, effective September 1, 2004, all communication from current SPEA students to SPEA staff must originate from an Indiana University account. For communication with SPEA faculty, current SPEA students should refer to course syllabi for instructors preferences (Oncourse, Webmail, etc.). This policy applies to current students only. Instructions for forwarding your IUPUI to another account can be found at Students Needing Support From Counseling and Psychological Services SPEA encourages any student who has concerns about their personal welfare to seek assistance with the professionally trained counselors of the IUPUI Counseling and Psychological Services (CAPS). CAPS provides direct professional psychological services, including crisis response, counseling, assessment and referral to all IUPUI students. More information can be found at 18 August 2014 Page 8 of 10

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