GasLog Ltd. Investor Marketing. Nov/Dec 2015 Not For Redistribution

Transcription

1 GasLog Ltd. Investor Marketing Nov/Dec 2015 Not For Redistribution

2 Forward-Looking Statements 2 All statements in this press release that are not statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of Forward-looking statements include statements that address activities, events or developments that the Company expects, projects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, particularly in relation to the Company s operations, cash flows, financial position, liquidity and cash available for dividends or distributions, plans, strategies and business prospects, and changes and trends in the Company s business and the markets in which it operates. These statements are based on current expectations of future events. If underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or unknown risks or uncertainties materialize, actual results could vary materially from the Company s expectations and projections. Accordingly, you should not unduly rely on any forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause future results and outcomes to differ include: continued low prices for crude oil and petroleum products; LNG shipping market conditions and trends, including spot and long-term charter rates, ship values, factors affecting supply and demand of LNG and LNG shipping and technological advancements; our ability to enter into time charters with new and existing customers; changes in the ownership of our charterers; our customers performance of their obligations under our time charters; changing economic conditions and the differing pace of economic recovery in different regions of the world; our future financial condition, liquidity and cash available for dividends and distributions; our ability to obtain financing to fund capital expenditures, acquisitions and other corporate activities, the ability of our lenders to meet their funding obligations, and our ability to meet the restrictive covenants and other obligations under our credit facilities; our ability to enter into shipbuilding contracts for newbuildings and our expectations about the availability of existing LNG carriers to purchase, as well as our ability to consummate any such acquisitions; our expectations about the time that it may take to construct and deliver newbuildings and the useful lives of our ships; number of off-hire days, drydocking requirements and insurance costs; our anticipated general and administrative expenses; fluctuations in currencies and interest rates; our ability to maximize the use of our ships, including the re-employment or disposal of ships not under time charter commitments; environmental and regulatory conditions, including changes in laws and regulations or actions taken by regulatory authorities; requirements imposed by classification societies; risks inherent in ship operation, including the discharge of pollutants; availability of skilled labor, ship crews and management; potential disruption of shipping routes due to accidents, political events, piracy or acts by terrorists; potential liability from future litigation; and other risks and uncertainties described in the Company s Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC on March 26, Copies of the Annual Report, as well as subsequent filings, are available online at The Company does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events or developments except as may be required by law. The declaration and payment of dividends are at all times subject to the discretion of our board of directors and will depend on, amongst other things, risks and uncertainties described above, restrictions in our credit facilities, the provisions of Bermuda law and such other factors as our board of directors may deem relevant.

3 INTRODUCTION

4 GasLog The Facts International owner, manager and operator of LNG carriers since Vessels Consolidated fleet $3.8 billion Revenue backlog London New York Monaco Athens Busan (South Korea) Singapore Listed on NYSE since April 2012, market capitalization of $1.0 billion (1) ~1,100 employees onshore and on the vessels 1. As at 24 November 2015

5 GasLog Has One Of The Most Modern LNG Fleets Fleet overview 5 Delivered Newbuilds Newbuilds on Order Opportunistic Market Acquisitions Acquired from Energy Majors Jointly Owned Options GasLog Savannah GasLog Singapore GasLog Shanghai GasLog Sydney SHI Hull 2072 SHI Hull 2073 SHI Hull 2102 SHI Hull 2103 GasLog Chelsea Methane Rita Andrea Methane Jane Elizabeth Methane Lydon Volney Methane Nile Eagle (25%) Samsung Heavy Industries 6 Options GasLog Santiago GasLog Skagen GasLog Seattle SHI Hull 2130 SHI Hull 2131 HHI Hull 2800 Methane Shirley Elisabeth Methane Heather Sally Solaris GasLog Saratoga GasLog Salem HHI Hull 2801 Methane Alison Victoria Methane Becki Anne Methane Julia Louise Owned by GasLog Partners

6 Modern Fleet and a Robust Contract Backlog 6

7 Port Management 2015 Q1-Q3 Port calls per country/per operation 7

8 SELECTED Q315 RESULTS

9 GasLog Q Highlights 9 Completed second dropdown of three vessels to GasLog Partners for $483m 25% incentive distribution right (IDR) tier reached Successful launch of The Cool Pool BG Group declared option to extend GasLog Savannah charter Adjusted EBITDA (1) of $65.7 million (Q3 2014: $68.7 million). Adjusted Profit (1) of $10.8 million (Q3 2014: $26.7 million). Adjusted EPS (1) of ($0.05) (Q3 2014: $0.26) Successfully closed $1.3 billion financing for GasLog s 8 newbuild vessels Quarterly dividend of $0.14 per common share payable on Nov 19, Adjusted EPS, Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Profit are non-gaap financial measures, and should not be used in isolation or as a substitute for GasLog s financial results presented in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards ( IFRS ). For definitions and reconciliations of these measurements to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with IFRS, please refer to the Appendix to these slides

10 Solid Financial Position 10 $1.3 billion debt financing with fourteen international banks and Korean export credit agencies Covering eight vessels, which have staggered deliveries between 2016 and 2019 Seven of the eight vessels have long-term contracts in place (average duration 8.9 years) The key highlights of the facility are as follows: Tenor of up to 12 years with an amortisation profile of 15 years from vessel delivery Attractive weighted-average margin Final commitments more than two times oversubscribed As the vessels deliver, it is anticipated that the equity component will be funded by cash on the balance sheet and operational cash flow Positive progress on 2016 re-financing

11 Track Record Of Growing Contracted Revenue Pipeline 11 $5.0 $ % $ % ($bn) $ % $1.0 $0.0 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Contracted Revenue ($bn) Track record of consistently adding to GasLog s long term contracted revenue backlog $3.8bn revenue backlog provides robust platform for future growth Confident in our ability to continue strong growth in long-term contracted revenue

12 Second Dropdown Takes IDRs To 25% Tier 12 Annualized Cash Distribution/Unit $ % IDR Tier $1.91 $ % IDR Tier $1.74 $1.74 $1.74 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.25 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Completed dropdown of three vessels to GasLog Partners for $483 million in Q315 Distribution increase of 10% moves the payout through the 25% IDR tier Greater incremental cashflow for GLOG and enhanced sum of the parts valuation Twelve additional dropdown assets at GasLog to drive future distribution growth

13 Significant New Supply Coming Onstream Cheniere Energy agrees long-term supply contract with Engie SA in France BP signed an SPA for a multi-year supply contract with China Huadian Corporation Project Capacity Expected Australia Projects (1) Percent Contracted Secured Financing or FID First LNG (2) Curtis 8.5 mtpa 60% October Gladstone 7.7 mtpa 90% September Australia Pacific 9.0 mtpa 95% January Gorgon 15.6 mtpa 80% September Wheatstone 8.9 mtpa 85% September Petronas confirms commitment to Pacific Northwest project - awaiting local BC approvals Ichthys 8.4 mtpa 100% January Prelude 3.6 mtpa 100% May Total 61.7 mtpa The BG-led Queensland Curtis project delivered its first cargo from Train 2 (4.5mtpa) Expected U.S. Projects (1) Project Capacity Percent Contracted Secured Financing or FID First LNG (2) Sabine Pass 22.5 mtpa 90% Yes for Trains 1-5 Late 2015 / Early 2016 Cove Point 5.25 mtpa 100% Yes Late 2017 Cameron 12.0 mtpa 100% Yes 2018 Freeport 13.9 mtpa 95% Yes 2018 Corpus Christi 13.5 mtpa 60% Yes for Trains 1 & /2019 Lake Charles 15.0 mtpa 100% (BG) 2016 (e) 2020 The Santos-led Gladstone LNG project delivered its first cargo from Train 1 (3.9mtpa) Total 82.2 mtpa 1. U.S. and Australian projects included in GasLog s 2020 supply outlook. Not all projects in outlook are forecast to produce at full capacity by Based on public disclosure and Company estimates Recent Developments

14 Strong Demand For Long-Term Charters 14 Selected Long-Term Charters Since 2014 (1) Date Charterer Number of Vessels July-2014 Yamal 9 July-2014 BG 4 December-2014 Shell 5 February-2015 E.ON 1 April-2015 BG 3 June-2015 BP 3 Total 25 Reported Vessel Requirements (1) Charterer Number of Vessels Gail India 9-11 Yamal LNG 7-8 Centrica 3-4 Repsol 1-2 Others 2-4 Total Based on public disclosure and Company estimates

15 Low Gas Prices Likely To Stimulate Greater Demand 15 $10 $8 $7.8 ($/mmbtu) $6 $4 $5.3 $2 $0 Variable Cost Variable + Fixed Cost 115% Henry Hub Liquefaction Shipping Regasification Source: GasLog estimates. (Chart assumes the following Henry Hub: ~$2/mmbtu, Liquefaction: $3/mmbtu (fixed), Shipping to Asia: $2/mmbtu, Re-gasification: $0.5/mmbtu) US producing competitively priced gas (Henry Hub ~$2/mmbtu) Chinese gas demand increasing but currently impacted by domestic price regulation Significant re-gasification infrastructure build out Continued increase in number of LNG importers Poland expected to take first cargo in December Egypt returned to being an LNG importer FSRU solution creating new markets Bahrain expected to release a $400m FSRU tender in November Greece / Hong Kong / South Africa all exploring the opportunity

16 Successful Launch Of "The Cool Pool" 16 GasLog established an LNG carrier pool with Golar LNG and Dynagas to market vessels trading in the spot market Improved scheduling / Greater cost efficiencies / Common marketing Initial market reaction has been positive from existing and potential customers Contracts of affreightment (COAs) and similar structures seen as very attractive for customers Opportunities for multi-charter business with vessel flexibility for customers Timing of The Cool Pool matches a rapidly-expanding LNG spot market Significant ramp-up in LNG supply New unsold production coming onstream New demand centres emerging Ten charters already signed by the Pool participants (50% share of spot market in October) Greater forward insight into LNG spot shipping requirements and market activity 8 Vessels 3 Vessels GasLog Saratoga GasLog Salem GasLog Chelsea

17 Summary and Outlook 17 1 Market outlook robust 2 Active in opportunities for new business 3 Successful start to The Cool Pool 4 Recent dropdown passes 25% IDR tier enhances SOTP 5 Strong financial position

18 LNG SECTOR UPDATE

19 Gas Expected To Take Significant Market Share 19 Recently published BP Energy Outlook 2035 forecasts that: - Gas consumption will grow at 1.9% per year to 2035 (same rate as forecast last year) - LNG consumption will grow at 4.3% per year to 2035 (3.9% forecast last year) - LNG supply will grow at 7.8% to 2020 (taking global trade to ~400mtpa) Source: BP Energy Outlook 2015 February

20 Global LNG Flows Set For Significant Expansion 20 Current Fleet: ~1.5 ships / 1 mmtpa ~400 ships Future Fleet: ships / 1 mmtpa ships Global LNG volumes expected to double by 2030 Average trade distances expected to rise sharply with US exports Source: BP Energy Report 2014, Ernst & Young, Wood Mackenzie Jan 2015

21 China s Potential LNG Demand Is Significant 21 Significant gas demand 900 Target 10% gas penetration by % - OECD 2013 average gas penetration ~180mtpa LNG equiv. supply gap based on government targets 1% increase gas penetration = ~23mtpa LNG 2 x Russian pipeline ~25mtpa equiv. each 2020 shale gas target: ~22mtpa equiv. Gas Consumption (Mtpa equiv.) ~477 Gap of over 100mtpa equivalent % - Chinese gas penetration target LNG infrastructure planned and in place 15 import terminals operational (~42mtpa) 3 under construction (~9mtpa) 17 more planned (~52mtpa) ~300 ~ Current Consumption (5% Penetration) Assuming a conservative 1.5 ships per 1mtpa, 103mpta above equates to a need for ~155 ships Source: BP Statistical review of World Energy 2014, Poten, Xinhua

22 Continued Growth of Regasification Capacity Over 60 MTPA of New Capacity Starting by YE Europe Project Capacity Country Completion Dunkirk LNG Terminal 10.0 mtpa France 2015 Swinoujscie LNG terminal 3.6 mtpa Poland 2015 Revithoussa (Expansion Phase 2) 1.9 mtpa Greece 2016 Japan / South Korea Project Capacity Country Completion Hachinohe LNG 1.5 mtpa Japan 2015 Ohgishima (Expansion II) 0.5 mtpa Japan 2015 Boryeong 2.0 mtpa South Korea 2016 Total 15.5 mtpa Soma LNG terminal 1.5 mtpa Japan 2018 South America Project Capacity Country Completion Quintero LNG (Expansion) 1.3 mtpa Chile 2015 Total 5.5 mtpa China Project Capacity Country Completion GNL del Plata LNG FSRU 2.7 mtpa Uruguay 2016 Rudong Jiangsu (Phase 2) 3.0 mtpa China 2015 Total 2.7 mtpa Guangdong Dapeng (Expansion 2) 2.3 mtpa China 2015 South Asia Project Capacity Country Completion Engro LNG (Phase 1) 2.3 mtpa Pakistan 2015 Kakinada LNG (Phase 1) 3.6 mtpa India 2016 Dahej LNG (Phase 3-A1) 5.0 mtpa India 2016 Mundra 5.0 mtpa India 2016 Beihai, Guangxi LNG 3.0 mtpa China 2015 Shenzhen (Diefu) 4.0 mtpa China 2015 Tianjin (Sinopec) (Phase 1) 2.9 mtpa China 2015 Yuedong LNG (Jieyang) 2.0 mtpa China 2016 Tianjin (onshore) 3.5 mtpa China 2016 Yantai, Shandong (Phase 1) 1.5 mtpa China 2016 Total 15.9 mtpa Total 22.2 mtpa Number of importing countries expected to rise to 48 in 2025 from 29 in 2014 (1) Floating storage, regasification units (FSRU) expected to play a key role Transportation - LNG as a bunker fuel to meet new emissions regulations Source: International Gas Union 2015 World LNG Report and GasLog estimates

23 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

24 Secure Cash Flow Profile Gives Financial Flexibility Attractive blend of fixed days today, with upside 24 Total on-the-water vessel days of existing fleet to grow c. 85% - c. 5,300¹ at end 2014 to 9,855 p.a. run rate in 2019 Firm Backlog of c. $3.8bn² - c.66% firm coverage of next 5 years Option Backlog of c. $3.8bn² - >75% firm and option coverage of available fleet days until end-2025 Majority of charters options and unfixed days from when market is forecast to be tight GasLog has consistently achieved uptime performance close to 100% Growth and visibility over contracted fleet days² As at 30 September ,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Contracted Charterer's Option Dry dock Unfixed 2026 Source: Company information 1. Pro forma full year 2014 based on 1,335 total available days during Q As at 30 September 2015

25 Committed Capital Expenditure Funded without an expected need for GLOG equity growth capex represents stage payments and final payments for the 8 newbuildings on order Back-ended c. $1.5bn growth capex profile $ : 4x 174 kcm TDFE (Samsung) $ : 3x 174 kcm LP-2S (1x Samsung, 2x Hyundai) $ : 1x 174 kcm LP-2S (1x Samsung) (m) $500 $1.3bn 8 vessel new build financing package complete $400 $300 Anticipate the balance will be funded from balance sheet cash and cash flow $200 $100 $

26 GasLog Ltd. Capital Structure Long dated facilities at competitive financing costs 26 Net debt of $1,975m as at Q3-15 GLOG net debt: $1,282m (7.5x EBITDA¹) GLOP net debt: $693m (4.7x EBITDA¹) Hedged 44% of outstanding debt as at 30 Sep 2015 at an all-in average cost of 4.6% Vessel backed-debt $2.3bn outstanding across 10 facilities 4 5% all-in swapped cost range NOK Bond NOK 1,000m, due June % at c. 7.4% all-in swapped cost 50% at 5.99% all-in swapped cost Trading above par (m) Maturity profile post bullet facility refinancing $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Completed financing of 8 x Newbuilds $1.3bn 10/12-year ECA facility 7 of 8 vessels with fixed long term charters 15 year average amortization profile from drawdown $ GLOG bank amortisation Other GLOG bank bullet GLOP bank bullet Bullet ReFi Junior GLOP bank amortisation NOK Bond Bullet ReFi Senior Bullet facility refinancing well advanced 4 Steam vessels + 2 TFDEs from BG Refinances bullet maturities in 2016/17 1. Q net debt divided by annualised Q EBITDA. GLOG net debt multiple represents ratio of fully consolidated net debt to fully consolidated EBITDA

27 GASLOG PARTNERS

28 GasLog Partners Business Model 28 Fixed-fee revenue contracts No commodity price or project-specific exposure Time charters generate revenue under daily rates No volume or production risk Strategy to acquire additional LNG carriers under long-term contract from GasLog Ltd. and third-parties Current LNG Carriers Year Built Cargo Capacity (cbm) Charterer (1) Charter Expiry Extension Options (2) GasLog Shanghai ,000 BG Group May GasLog Santiago ,000 BG Group July GasLog Sydney ,000 BG Group September Methane Jane Elizabeth ,000 BG Group October Methane Alison Victoria ,000 BG Group December Methane Rita Andrea ,000 BG Group April Methane Shirley Elisabeth ,000 BG Group June Methane Heather Sally ,000 BG Group December Charters with Methane Services Limited ( MSL ), a subsidiary of BG Group 2. Charters may be extended for certain periods at charterer s option. The period shown reflects the expiration of the minimum and maximum optional period. For the Methane Alison Victoria, Methane Shirley Elisabeth and Methane Heather Sally, charterer may extend the term of two of the charters for one extension period of three or five years

29 GasLog Partners Cashflow: Growth and Stability through Dropdowns and Fixed-Fee Contracts 29 Adjusted EBITDA (1) ($mm) $120 Brent Crude $37.3 $40 $100 2 nd Dropdown Transaction $35 $30 Brent Crude Price $80 $60 $40 $20 1 st Dropdown Transaction $15.8 $15.8 $24.2 $23.6 $23.6 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA ($MM) $0 (2) Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 $0 1. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-gaap financial measures and should not be used in isolation or as a substitute for GasLog Partners financial results presented in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). For definitions and reconciliations of these measurements to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with IFRS, please refer to the Appendix 2. This amount is includes the combined accounts of GAS-three Ltd., GAS-four Ltd. and GAS-five Ltd. as they were under the common control of GasLog

30 Exceeding Our Growth Target through Solid Execution of our Business Model 30 Annualized Cash Distribution/LP Unit $2.00 Distribution Growth Target: 10 15% CAGR from IPO 2 nd Dropdown Transaction $1.91 $ st Dropdown Transaction $1.74 $1.74 $1.74 $1.50 $1.50 $1.50 $1.25 (1) Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q Annualized pro-rata distribution