Technische Universität Berlin. Renewable Energies` Dissemination and International Trade: An Empirical Assessment of Policy, Markets and Innovation

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1 Technische Universität Berlin School VII Economics and Management Renewable Energies` Dissemination and International Trade: An Empirical Assessment of Policy, Markets and Innovation vorgelegt von Felix Groba Master of Public Policy (MPP) an der Fakultät VII - Wirtschaft und Management der Technischen Universität Berlin zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Doktor der Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Dr. rer. oec. - genehmigte Dissertation Promotionsausschuss: Vorsitzender: Berichter: Berichter: Prof. Dr. Georg Meran Prof. Dr. Christian von Hirschhausen Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert Tag der wissenschaftlichen Aussprache: 2. Februar 213 Berlin 213 D 83

2 Für Beatrice, Christina und Hans.

3 Abstract Renewable energies are a critical element in containing climate change while sustaining economic development. The expanded introduction of renewable energy policies changed electricity markets due to increasing renewable electricity capacity and generation. Although some are convinced that policies have worked in selected markets, conclusive evidence on the effect of renewable energy policies remains unclear and is still debated. In addition, the change in national electricity systems is accompanied by the development of a dynamic industry sector providing the necessary technology components for renewable electricity production. While some countries are particularly successful in exporting renewable energy technology components, there is debate on the effect of environmental regulation on a country s manufacturing industry competitiveness. Furthermore, in this particular sector, structure and drivers of international trade remain unclear. This dissertation addresses a number of questions regarding the effect of renewable energy policies on renewable electricity supply expansion and international trade in necessary technology components. An econometric approach is taken to estimate the effectiveness of renewable energy policies on renewable energy capacity and generation development in EU countries and U.S. states. Feed-in tariffs and renewable portfolio standards are analyzed while controlling for country differences in policy stringency, policy design and supplementary policies. Analyzing OECD country and Chinese exports of solar and wind energy technology components the effect of renewable energy policy on determining country competitiveness and, thus, bilateral trade is identified. Methodologically, this dissertation contributes to the discussion on the role of country specific effects in applied micro-econometric cross country comparison as well as to the selection of proper estimators under the existence of zero trade flows. Keywords: energy policy, renewable energy, feed-in tariffs, renewable portfolio standards, European Union, United States, fixed-effects-models, energy technology, environmental regulation, innovation, OECD, China, panel data models, gravity trade models, maximum-likelihood estimation. iii

4 Zusammenfassung Der Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien spielt eine zentrale Rolle bei der Einda mmung des Klimawandels und kann gleichzeitig ein Element fu r nachhaltige wirtschaftliche Entwicklung sein. Staatliche Maßnahmen zur Fo rderung erneuerbarer Energien haben in einigen La ndern zu einer Vera nderung der Stromma rkte durch zunehmende Stromerzeugung aus erneuerbaren Energiequellen gefu hrt. Bisher fehlen empirische Untersuchungen daru ber, weshalb staatliche Eingriffe und Fo rdermaßnahmen in einigen La ndern erfolgreicher waren als in anderen. Im La ndervergleich ist die Wirkung von Fo rderprogrammen fu r erneuerbare Energien daher oft unklar. Neben der Vera nderung nationaler Stromma rkte hat der Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien zur Entwicklung eines Industriezweigs gefu hrt, der die notwendigen Technologiekomponenten erzeugt. Wa hrend einige La nder diese Gu ter sehr erfolgreich produzieren und exportieren gibt es eine Debatte daru ber, welchen Einfluss umweltpolitische Regulierung auf die Wettbewerbsfa higkeit der Fertigungsindustrie in einzelnen La ndern hat. Trotz der steigenden Bedeutung von erneuerbaren Energien bleiben Struktur und Ursachen des internationalen Handels mit entsprechenden Technologiegu tern bisher unklar. Diese Dissertation befasst sich mit einer Reihe von Fragen in Bezug auf die Wirkung von Politikmaßnahmen zur Fo rderung erneuerbarer Energien. Im Fokus stehen insbesondere die Auswirkungen von Fo rdermaßnahmen auf den Ausbau der Erzeugungskapazita t auf nationalen Ma rkten, sowie auf den internationalen Handel mit entsprechenden Technologiekomponenten. Mikro-o konometrische Ansa tze werden genutzt, um die Wirksamkeit von Einspeisetarifen und Renewable Portfolio Standards auf Kapazita ts- und Erzeugungsentwicklung in EU-La ndern und US-Bundesstaaten zu scha tzen. Dabei werden la nderspezifische Unterschiede der politischen Stringenz, Politikgestaltung und die Wirkung zusa tzlicher Politiken besonders beru cksichtigt. Daru ber hinaus wird der internationale Handel mit Solar- und Windenergiekomponenten betrachtet. Durch eine Analyse der Exporte von OECD La ndern und China wird die Wirkung der Politik fu r erneuerbare Energien auf Wettbewerbsfa higkeit und damit den bilateralen Handel identifiziert. Methodisch tra gt diese Dissertation zur Diskussion u ber die Rolle von la nderspezifischen Effekten in der angewandten mikro-o konometrischen Literatur und zur Identifizierung korrekter Scha tzer unter Beru cksichtigung von Null-Beobachtungen und Heteroskedastizita t bei. Schlagwörter: Energiepolitik, erneuerbare Energien, Einspeisevergu tung, Renewable Portfolio Standards, Europa ische Union, USA, Fixed-Effects-Modelle, Energie- und Umwelttechnik, Regulierung, Innovation, OECD, China, Panel-Daten-Modelle, Handels- Modelle, Maximum-Likelihood-Scha tzung. iv

5 Acknowledgements I am indebted to many people for accompanying me on the path of completing this dissertation. First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisors Claudia Kemfert and Christian von Hirschhausen for their manifold support and encouragement throughout the entire process. They provided guidance, insightful comments and invaluable advice that strongly influenced the development of my research and also granted administrative support whenever necessary. I am grateful to the Heinrich-Bo ll-foundation not only for providing generous financial support but especially for offering an inspiring environment for multidisciplinary exchange of ideas. In addition, the staff, especially Justus Lentsch and Tamara Or, has been dedicated to the organization of research seminars and workshops that provided valuable opportunities to present and discuss my research. All chapters of this thesis have greatly benefited from the comments of many scholars, referees and conference participants. I am particularly indebted to my coauthors for enlightening discussions and exchange of ideas. In my final year, I had the opportunity to spend three months as a visiting researcher at the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University in Beijing. I am indebted to Jing Cao, not only for the academic climate and conversations on the subject but also for her hospitality. I would also like to express my gratitude to Georg Meran for his commitment to the doctoral students as dean of the DIW Graduate Center and as chairman of my thesis committee. The DIW graduate center has been an invaluable experience providing me with the tools of thorough economic understanding and an environment of fruitful exchange and support. In addition I am much obliged to my colleagues in the DIW s Department of Energy, Transport and Environment for providing collaboration and room for discussion. Particularity, I am grateful to Jochen Diekmann, Frauke Braun, Anne Neumann, Wolf Schill, Aleksandar Zaklan and Petra Zloczysti for sharing their thoughts and critique on various aspects of my research. My sincere thankfulness is with my parents for always supporting my studies and encouraging me in times of despair. I also want to thank my friends Christoph, Georg, Heito, Henry, Jan, Johannes, Joscha, Maria, Sebastian, Simon, Steffen and Thorsten for always being ready to provide the necessary degree of delight distraction. Finally, I thank Beatrice for her endless support and patience. v

6 Rechtliche Erklärung Hiermit versichere ich, dass ich die vorliegende Dissertation selbststa ndig und ohne unzula ssige Hilfsmittel verfasst habe. Die verwendeten Quellen sind vollsta ndig im Literaturverzeichnis angegeben. Die Arbeit wurde keiner anderen Pru fungsbeho rde in gleicher oder a hnlicher Form vorgelegt. Berlin, 3. April 213 Felix Groba vi

7 Contents Abstract... iii Zusammenfassung... iv Acknowledgements... v Rechtliche Erklärung... vi Contents... vii List of Tables... xi List of Figures... xiv Abbreviations... xvi 1 Introduction Motivation Research questions Political economy of renewable energy policies Energy market failures, externalities and government intervention Policy instruments to promote renewable energies Policy instruments and international trade Empirical evidence on RE policy effectiveness Empirical evidence on RE policy effect on trade Methodology Public policy assessment under unit heterogeneity Gravity trade analysis Overview of the thesis Assessing policy effects on renewable energy electricity generation capacity Chapter 2: Assessing the strength and effectiveness of renewable electricity feed-in tariffs in European Union countries Chapter 3: Have State Renewable Portfolio Standards Really Worked? - Synthesizing past policy assessments to build an integrated econometric analysis of RPS effectiveness in the U.S vii

8 Contents Assessing policy effects on renewable energy technology trade flows Chapter 4: Determinants of Trade with Solar Energy Technology Components Evidence on the Porter Hypothesis? Chapter 5: Chinese Renewable Energy Technology Exports: The Role of Policy, Innovation and Markets Conclusions and perspectives Assessing the strength and effectiveness of renewable electricity feed-in tariffs in European Union countries Introduction Varieties of renewable energy policy design The question of RES-E development and FIT effectiveness in Europe Research question and contribution Literature review Empirical framework and data Dependent variable selection Assessing the strength of feed-in tariffs Capacity and indicator data Additional explanatory variables Model specification Results Discussion Interpretation of findings A more nuanced ROI indicator Conclusion Have State Renewable Portfolio Standards Really Worked? Synthesizing past policy assessments to build and integrated econometric analysis of RPS effectiveness in the U.S Introduction Literature review Samples Models Policy covariates Results viii

9 Contents 3.3 Empirical model Variables and data Renewable energy supply Quantification Sources State-level data Aggregated generator-level data Consequences on previous findings Policy and Policy Feature Variables Controls Results Replication of Yin and Powers (21) Maine: An Outlier Our Model Replication of Previous Studies Other Policies RPS Features Technology Analysis Estimation of State-Level Causal Effects of RPS Enactment Conclusion Determinants of Trade with Solar Energy Technology Components Evidence on the Porter Hypothesis? Introduction Regulation, innovation and trade a literature overview Estimation method of trade analysis Data Solar energy technology components in export statistics General trade estimation parameter Measures of environmental regulation and renewable energy policy The role of barriers to trade and regulation in importing countries Results and Discussion Conclusion ix

10 Contents 5 Chinese Renewable Energy Technology Exports: The Role of Policy, Innovation and Markets Introduction Related literature Chinese PV and wind technology exports and renewable energy policy in China Development and diversity of Chinese clean technology trade Renewable energy policy and RE electricity generation in China R&D, innovation and technology transfer in China Empirical framework: gravity model for trade analysis Frequent zero trade flows and overdispersion China: respecting individual non-variant time series variables and multicollinarity Final model specification Trade determining variables and data Socioeconomic variables Trade costs and trade barriers Market size and policies promoting renewable energies R&D, knowledge and technology transfer Results Discussion and conclusion Bibliography Appendices Appendix Chapter Appendix Chapter Appendix Chapter Appendix Chapter STATA Code Chapter STATA Code Chapter STATA Code Chapter STATA Code Chapter MySQL Code Chapter x

11 List of Tables Table 1.1: Table 1.2: Table 1.3: Summary of selected market failures and barriers for renewable energy adoption and diffusion... 5 Strategies and selected policies for the promotion of renewable energy electricity generation... 8 Summary of contributions, publications and co-authors of different chapters Table 2.1: Renewable electricity support policies Table 2.2: Years of RES-E policy enactment in EU 27 countries from 199 to Table 2.3: Relevant empirical studies of renewable energy policy effectiveness Table 2.4: Controls specification Table 2.5: Fixed effects regression results for solar photovoltaic Table 2.6: Fixed effects regression results for onshore wind Table 3.1: Relevant empirical studies of renewable energy policy effectiveness Table 3.2: Dependent variable selection in previous studies Table 3.3: EIA data sources Table 3.4: RPS features for states with a RPS effectively enacted in Table 3.5: Summary Statistics Table 3.6: Table 3.7: Table 3.8: Recreation of Yin and Powers (21) with capacity ratio as dependent variable Recreation of Yin and Powers (21) with generation ratio as dependent variable The coefficient on ISI under different specifications of the dependent variable Table 3.9: Basis model results with capacity ratio as dependent variable Table 3.1: Recreation of results on RPS indicators in previous studies with capacity ratio as dependent variable Table 3.11: Policy interaction results with capacity ratio as dependent variable Table 3.12: Results for RPS features with capacity ratio as dependent variable Table 3.13: Full model results with technology-specific capacity ratios as dependent variables... 9 Table 3.14: Matching covariates Table 3.15: State-level causal effect estimates of RPS enactment Table 4.1: Years of RES-E policy enactment focusing on Solar PV in OECD countries from 199 to xi

12 List of Tables Table 4.2: Table 4.3: Table 5.1: Full Sample results Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Reduced sample results of OECD non-oecd trade PPML Selection of national and provincial government policies and programs targeting solar PV and wind renewable energy dissemination and innovation in China Table 5.2: Years of renewable energy policy enactment in the sample of 43 countries from Table 5.3: Top 1 countries in terms of technology transfer to China and solar energy component imports from China Table 5.4: Preliminary total imports from China estimation results Table 5.5: Table 5.6: Estimation results for imports of solar photovoltaic components from China Preliminary estimation for imports of wind energy technology components from China A2 Table 1: Summary Statistics A2 Table 2: Correlation Matrix A2 Table 3: Random effects regression results for solar photovoltaic A2 Table 4: Random effects regression results for onshore wind A3 Table 1: EIA Classification changes in 2/ A4 Table 1: Top 15 global exporters of solar energy technology components in 28 and respective export specialization and comparative advantage indices A4 Table 2: Nomenclature of solar energy technology components, HS A4 Table 3: Definition of variables and data sources A4 Table 4: Summary Statistics A4 Table 5: Correlation matrix A5 Table 1: Nomenclature of solar photovoltaic and wind energy components, HS xii

13 List of Tables A5 Table 2: A5 Table 3: A5 Table 4: Development of Chinese exports and imports of components for potential renewable energy use and export and import market shares compared to selected countries Trade related sector specific indicators of competitiveness of China and selected countries by components for potential renewable energy use Share of region and selected countries on Chinese exports and imports of potential renewable energy components (in percent)...19 A5 Table 5: Description for solar PV and wind energy technology relevant IPCs A5 Table 6: Correlation Matrix for analysis of solar photovoltaic energy component imports A5 Table 7: Correlation Matrix for analysis of wind energy component imports xiii

14 List of Figures Figure 2.1: Figure 2.2: Total non-hydroelectric renewable electricity generation capacity in EU 27 countries Added capacity and ROI values for 26 EU member countries, 1992 to Figure 3.1: State-level generation and capacity development Figure 3.2: Generator-level generation and capacity development Figure 3.3: Plot of maximum and minimum year-on-year change in RES-E capacity ratio... 8 Figure 3.4: State-level causal effect estimates of RPS enactment Figure 4.1: Figure 4.2: Figure 4.3: Figure 4.4: Figure 4.5: Figure 4.6: Figure 5.1: Figure 5.2: Development of solar energy technology component exports to the world by country group Export flow of solar energy technology components in 28 by region in billion USD Share of solar electricity generation in total electricity generation for selected OECD countries Public R&D expenditure for solar energy for selected OECD countries Development of OECD solar energy exports and respective mean tariff applied by importing countries Global non-hydro renewable net electricity generation as share of total net electricity generation Development of Chinese exports and imports of solar PV energy technology components Development of Chinese exports and imports of wind energy technology components Figure 5.3: China solar PV electricity capacity and generation development Figure 5.4: Figure 5.5: Figure 5.6: Figure 5.7: China wind energy electricity capacity and generation development Central and provincial government R&D appropriation directed to renewable energy Foreign and national patent applications and knowledge stock for solar PV and wind energy technology in China Mean effectively applied tariffs on imports of solar photovoltaic and wind energy technology components from China xiv

15 List of Figures A3 Figure 1: Line Plot of RES-E capacity ratio by state...18 xv

16 Abbreviations ACOE BTU CEF CEPII CO2 CO2-eq. DFX DP DSIRE DTX DWH EC EIA EPO EP EREC EU FDI FE FEGLS FEVD FIT GDP GDP GPP GW HS IEA IPR IQR IRENA ISI ISO KWh LCV Average Cost of Electricity British Thermal Unit Clean Energy Fund Centre d'etudes Prospectives et d'informations Internationales Carbon Dioxide Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Delivery-From-Index Disclosure Program Database of State Incentives For Renewable Energy Delivery-To-Index Durbin-Watson-Hausman Test European Commission Energy Information Administration European Patent Office European Parliament European Renewable Energy Council European Union Foreign Direct Investment Fixed Effect Estimation Fixed Effect Generalized Least Squares Estimation Fixed Effect Vector Decomposition Feed-in Tariff Gross Domestic Product Generation Disclosure Requirement Green Power Purchasing Gigawatt Harmonized System International Energy Agency Intellectual property rights Interquantile range International Renewable Energy Agency Incremental Share Indicator International Organization for Standardization Kilowatt per hour League of Conservation Voters xvi

17 Abbreviations LM LR MGPO MOST MRT MW MWh NB NM NREL OECD OLS PATSTAT PBF POP PPML PV R&D RCA RE REC REN21 RES RES-E ROI RPS RTP RWS RXA S&T SETC SIPO UNCTAD UNEP UNFCCC Lagrange Multiplier Test Likelihood Ratio Test Mandatory Green Power Option Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China Multilateral Trade Resistance Megawatt Megawatt per hour Negative Binominal Estimation Net Metering National Renewable Energy Laboratory Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Ordinary Least Squares Estimation European Patent Office Worldwide Patent Statistical Database Public Benefit Fund Population Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimation Photovoltaic Research and Development Revealed Comparative Advantage Random Effect Estimation Renewable Energy Certificate Renewable Energy Network for the 21st Century Renewable Energy Sources Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources Return of Investment Renewable Portfolio Standard Relative Trade Position Relative World Market Share Relative Export Advantage Science and Technology Solar Energy Technology Components State Intellectual Property Office of the People's Republic of China United Nation Conference on Trade and Development United Nation Environmental Programme United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change xvii

18 Abbreviations US USD WETC United States United States Dollar Wind energy technology components xviii

19 Chapter 1 1 Introduction 1.1 Motivation I first became fascinated with renewable energy while in high school. Growing up in an area that was traditionally dominated by the coal mining industry, I witnessed the arrival of wind farms. The decline of the coal industry triggered an incomparable transformation of the region. My home town shrunk and deconstruction followed. The process was, and still is, accompanied by a debate over the region s future. Large open pit brown coal mines are closed and landscape revitalization is underway. Large grey chimneys have been substituted with seemingly delicate wind turbines and solar farms cover what were once mine dumping sites and substituted grey chimneys in the countryside of southern Brandenburg. To my e, this was amazing. Later, as a university student, I realized that these new technologies could be a promising element for regional development and for sustainable development, if supported adequately. While earning my Master s in public policy, I focused on the potential of renewable energy policy to reduce environmental pollution, while contributing to poverty reduction and sustainable development. However, in the political science and public policy realm, I realized that the assessment and implementation of measures aiming at an increased spread of renewable energies is unsatisfactory with limited understanding of the markets in which these technologies operate and the economic mechanisms behind the diffusion processes. When I applied to the DIW Berlin Graduate Center my aim, as outlined in my application letter, was to become able to thoroughly understand and analyze macro- and microeconomic market structures to develop sustainable policy strategies and to become equipped with the methodological skill to thoroughly handle quantitative data. Throughout my doctoral studies, I have worked on both objectives, always with the thought of enabling societies to replace chimneys with cleaner and better looking forms of energy architecture. Yet, I think there is still more to be understood. 1.2 Research questions Climate change, induced by increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions caused by anthropologic economic development, is a serious challenge facing mankind (IPCC, 27). Substantial efforts are required to limit the concentration of CO2 equivalents (CO2e) to a level that avoids severe temperature increases and dramatic effects on 1

20 Chapter 1 economic performance, welfare, and ecosystems (Stern, 27). The expanded adoption and diffusion of renewable energies are critical elements in this context (Stern, 27, IPCC, 211). The appeal of renewable energy has also increased due to its potential contribution to reducing dependence on energy imports, thus increasing energy security (Valentin, 211). At the same time, renewable energy offers possibilities for generating local environmental and health benefits along with the facilitation of energy access (Mahapatra et al., 29). In addition, renewable energies gained attractiveness due to their probable effect on structural economic development offering increasing employment, competitiveness and sustainable or green growth (Ragwitz et al., 26, Lehr et al., 28, Edenhofer and Stern, 29, European Parliament and European Commission, 29, OECD, 21, Edler and Blazejczak, 211, OECD, 211c). Increased renewable energy adoption and diffusion has several dimensions on the national and international levels in terms of market creation and development. On the national level, electricity markets change considerably due to strongly increasing renewable electricity capacity and generation. The change in energy systems is accompanied by the development of an industry sector providing technology goods that are traded in a global market. The global capacity for renewable energy electricity generation increased, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (212e) and REN21 (212), from 25 GW in 199 to 39 GW in At the same time the global exports of components that can be used for non-hydro renewable electricity generation increased dramatically from 47 billion USD in 1996 to 242 billion USD in 211 (UNCTAD, 212). 2 Yet, the development is disparate at the country level and with respect to technologies (REN21, 29b, UNEP, 21, REN21, 212, UNEP, 212). Further rapid adoption and diffusion of renewable energy is hampered by multiple obstacles. Current research in this field documents numerous market failures and barriers, ranging from unfavorable pricing mechanisms, high costs and risks to limited transmission access and non-consideration of concomitant benefits (Painuly, 21, Beck and Marinot, 24). A consequence of these market imperfections is a level of consumption of fossil fuels, such as coal, gas and oil, beyond the social optimum, which subsequently contributes to an increasing volume of emissions and, eventually, climate change. At the same time it results in a below social optimum investment in clean energy alternatives (Stern, 27). In face of these multiple, and often interdependent, obstacles for renewable energies, government intervention in terms of policy formation and 1 These figures reflect total non-hydroelectric capacity development including capacity from geothermal, solar, wind, biomass and waste energy sources. 2 Currency is given in year 2 USD. Depending on technology differentiation and classification of goods feasible for renewable energy systems figures vary. Jha (29) for instance shows global exports of renewable energy technologies to be 24 billion U.S. Dollar in 27. 2

21 1.2 Research questions implementation is justified and is long supported in the theoretical literature (Weitzman, 1974). Since the 199s, multiple strategies promoting renewable energies have been developed and implemented at various government and market levels. These are likely to be a driving factor behind the above outlined development (REN21, 212). Yet, significant challenges remain for policy makers in designing effective and efficient policy portfolios that balance and target complex market structures and the obstacles to rapid renewable energy expansion (IPCC, 211). Even though there is conviction that some policies have worked in some markets, conclusive evidence on the effect of renewable energies policies remains unclear and is still debated. When analyzing national renewable electricity capacity development, past quantitative studies often only evaluate the introduction of certain policies without paying attention to specific policy design features and the policy context within which a measure is enacted. In empirical studies two of the most commonly implemented policies, feed-in tariffs and quotas, are often seen as single one-dimensional policy tools. However, feed-in tariffs, for instance, differ substantially across countries in contract duration, amount of tariff guaranteed and whether or not preferential grid access is ensured. Quotas can differ in share and technologies required under the obligation scheme and whether or not existing renewable electricity generation capacity is eligible. In addition, these policies can be supplemented by additional measures such as tendering policies, mandatory green power options and tax incentives or financial grants. However, if these elements are neglected from empirical research the true effectiveness of a policy and the importance of the complementing support policies remain blurred. Renewable energy policies are also likely to have additional effects going beyond renewable electricity generation or capacity expansion. Understood as environmental regulation, these polices should also be analyzed in the international trade context. There is an ongoing debate, both academically and on the policy level, of whether or not environmental regulation increases or decreases a country s manufacturing industry competitiveness in an open international market. Some countries, such as Germany, the United States, Denmark, and, recently, China have developed prosperous industries that produce and export renewable energy technology components. Even though the global demand for renewable energy components has been and is growing fast in the last decade, other countries have been less successful. Despite this development, trade in renewable energy technology components and the role renewable energy policies play in this context are, so far, only marginally analyzed. This thesis analyzes the effects of renewable energy policies on (a) electricity capacity and generation expansion in national electricity markets and (b) exports and 3

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