Las Vegas Economic & Visitor Profile
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1 Las Vegas Economic & Visitor Briefing February 1, 2010 Prepared by:
2 Economic Setting: National
3 Some Important National Indicators 1. Great Recession Started 12, months ago 2. National GDP Growth 12 mos. ending 12/ % 3, ISM Manufacturing Index 12 mos. ending 12/ % 4. Consumer Confidence Index 12 mos. ending 1/ % 5. Personal Savings Rate 12 mos. ending -11/ % to 4.7% 6. Semiconductor Index 12 mos. ending 1/ % 3
4 S&P / Case-Shiller Housing Price Index Select Western U.S. MSAs: 10/ / LV housing market continues to struggle NV-Las Vegas 250 AZ-Phoenix Index CA-Los Angeles CA-San Diego CO-Denver City Composite Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 4 Source: Standard & Poors.
5 Clark County, Nevada & U.S. Job Growth: 12/ /2009 Year-over-Year Growth 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Dec Clark County = -7.4% (13.1% unemployment) Nevada = -6.5% (13.0% unemployment) U.S. = -3.0% (10.0% unemployment) The Storm Starts-12/07 Job growth IS the key indicator. Period. Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
6 Consumer Confidence rises from low-point at beginning of 2009 U.S. Consumer Confidence and Sentiment Indices: 12/ / Consumer Confidence Consumer Sentiment The beginning of the process 0 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 6 Sources: The Conference Board; Reuters/University of Michigan.
7 Consumers spent more this past decade - financed by cheap & easy credit Consumer Credit Outstanding: 11/ /2009 $2,800 $2,400 Total Consumer Credit Outstanding ($ in Bill.; Seasonally Adj.) Revolving Nonrevolving $2,000 $1,600 $1,200 $800 $400 $0 Consumers in savings mode Consumer credit drops record $17.5B in Nov. (over Oct.) $ in Billions; Seasonally Adj. Nov-80 Nov-81 Nov-82 Nov-83 Nov-84 Nov-85 Nov-86 Nov-87 Nov-88 Nov-89 Nov-90 Nov-91 Nov-92 Nov-93 Nov-94 Nov-95 Nov-96 Nov-97 Nov-98 Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 7 Sources: The Federal Reserve.
8 Savings going up, because consumers are rebuilding balance sheets U.S. Personal Savings Rate as % of Disposable Income: 11/ / % 12% 10% Nov. 2009: 4.7% Savings trended down for awhile; great for retailers, but... 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Nov-90 Nov-91 Nov-92 Nov-93 Nov-94 Nov-95 Nov-96 Nov-97 Nov-98 Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 8 Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis.
9 Economic Setting: Las Vegas
10 Las Vegas Valley Visitor Volume: YTD (Nov) M YTD 2009 (Nov) 25% Visitors (in Millions) Year-over-Year Chng. We need them back 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 0-10% YTD 10 Sources: Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority.
11 McCarran Annual Passengers: , & 2009 YTD (Nov) Sustainable Capacity (post expansion): 53 Million 8.9M above the 44.1M passengers recorded in 2008) Ivanpah has been delayed from 2017 to 2019 We need them back, Part 2 Passengers (in Millions) YTD 11 Source: McCarran International Airport; Deutsche Bank.
12 Resort Industry Investment Projects Cost ($B) by Scheduled Completion Year: , Initiated & Undetermined 12 Projects' Cost ($ in Billions) $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 $3.93 B (under construction) 3,990 additional rooms Sample Projects: City Center Planet Hollywood* Hard Rock* Golden Nugget* Sample Project: Cosmopolitan Resort Mgmt: 10-year casino building drought Sample Projects: Echelon Caesars Palace* Fontainebleau $11.61 $3.93 $9.89 $ (15 projects) 2010 (8 projects) Initiated** (5 projects) Sample Projects: aloft Las Vegas Charlie Palmer Plaza Hotel Las Palmas Sands Expo* So. Highlands Casino Viva Symphony Park Wynn Resorts* Partial Partial Partial Partial Undetermined** (36 projects) *Expansion/Redevelopment **Initiated or proposed projects with opening dates to be determined. Source: Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority (as of 11/4/2009).
13 Clark County Gaming Activity Coin-In per Slot (Avg. per Month): Q3, 2005-Q3/2009 Coin-In per Slot (Avg. per Month) $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 Q3-09 $55,564 Slot traffic/spending down & has to recover 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Same Q, Prev. Yr % Change $0-20% Q3-05 Q4-05 Q1-06 Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q Coin-In per Slot (Avg. per Month) Same Q, Prev. Yr % Change Source: Nevada Gaming & Control Board.
14 Clark County Taxable Retail Sales: YTD (Nov) $40.0 $35.0 $30.0 $30.3 $33.9 $36.2 $36.4 $34.9 $25.9 $ in Billions $25.0 $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 $0.0 Other side of saving more, spending less YTD (Nov) 14 Sources: Nevada Department of Taxation.
15 When Consumers feel their jobs at risk, they cut back on their spending, YOY-October Clark County Taxable Retail Sales by Select Retail Subcategories*: Change Oct vs. Oct $717.1 M, -19% Motor Vehicle & Parts Drop of $1.5 Billion -$234.4 M, -15% -$195.9 M, -8% -$108.1 M, -4% -$106.3 M, -6% -$72.8 M, -7% -$44.8 M, -2% -$28.6 M, -2% Building Material Other Stores General Merchandise Health & Personal Care Electronics & Appliance Clothing & Accessories Food & Beverage -$800 -$600 -$400 -$200 $0 15 $ in Millions *Retail subcategories selected based on NAICS retail codes. Source: Nevada Department of Taxation.
16 Las Vegas Valley Commercial Inventory Spec. Office & Anchored Retail Space: Q4, 06 Q4, Spec. Office Anchored Retail Square Feet (in Millions) Q4, 06 Q1, 07 Q2, 07 Q3, 07 Q4, 07 Q1, 08 Q2, 08 Q3, 08 Q4, 08 Q1, 09 Q2, 09 Q3, 09 Q4, Source: Restrepo Consulting Group.
17 Las Vegas Valley Spec. Office Market Vacancy, Absorption & Completion Trends: Q4, 06 Q4, 09 Square Feet (in Millions) % 10.8% 11.0% 11.2% 17.4% 15.6% 14.1% 12.0% Absorption Completions Vacancy 18.5% 20.5% 21.4% 21.4% 22.3% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% % Vacant 1.0 0% Q4, 06 Q1, 07 Q2, 07 Q3, 07 Q4, 07 Q1, 08 Q2, 08 Q3, 08 Q4, 08 Q1, 09 Q2, 09 Q3, 09 Q4, Source: Restrepo Consulting Group.
18 Las Vegas Valley Anchored Retail Market Vacancy, Absorption & Completion Trends: Q4, 06 Q4, 09 Square Feet 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , , % 2.7% 3.1% 3.0% 3.2% 3.5% 4.1% Absorption Completions 9.6% Vacancy 8.7% 9.0% 7.8% 5.8% 5.4% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Vacant 400, ,000 0% Q4, 06 Q1, 07 Q2, 07 Q3, 07 Q4, 07 Q1, 08 Q2, 08 Q3, 08 Q4, 08 Q1, 09 Q2, 09 Q3, 09 Q4, Source: Restrepo Consulting Group.
19 Visitor Profile 1. Visitor Demographic 2. Reasons For Visiting 3. Travel Planning 4.Trip Characteristics & Expenditures 5. Gaming Behavior & Budgets 6. Entertainment 7. Visitor Satisfaction
20 Visitor Profile 1. Visitor Demographic Reasons For Visiting Travel Planning Trip Characteristics & Expenditures Gaming Behavior & Budgets Entertainment Visitor Satisfaction
21 2008 Visitor Market Segment General Tourists, 21.0M 37.5M Visitors in 2008 Casino Guests, 7.1M Conventioners, 4.5M 21 Package Purchasers, 4.9M Segment Visitors Who: % Conventioners Attended a convention/trade show/corporate meeting 12 Package Purchasers Casino Guests General Tourists Purchased a hotel/transp./amenities package or a travel group tour Paid a casino room rate (either a regular rate or casino complimentary). Marketed to by casinos. Are not Conventioners, Package Purchasers, or Casino Guests. Includes those staying in RV parks, with friends/relatives, & day trippers Sources: Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority.
22 Las Vegas Visitors Demographic Profile: Gender % Education % Male 51 High school or less 28 Female 49 Some college/trade school 21 Marital Status % College graduate 45 Married 80 Trade/vocational school 7 Single 13 Age % Separated/Divorced Widowed Employment % Employed Unemployed Student Retired 28 Average Age 51 Homemaker 4 *Note: Respondent base size = 3,601. Total may not add to 100% due to rounding or because multiple responses were permitted. Source: Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority Las Vegas Visitor Profile.
23 Las Vegas Visitors Demographic Profile: 2008 Cont. d Ethnicity % Visitor Origin % White 90 United States 85 African American/Black 4 Eastern 8 Asian/Asian American 2 Southern 13 Hispanic/Latino 4 Midwest 12 Other 0 Western 52 Household Income % International 15 Less than $20,000 1 $20,000 $39,999 5 $40,000 $59, $60,000 $79, $80,000 or more 41 No answer Eastern states: Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island & Vermont. Southern States: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, N. Carolina, Oklahoma, S. Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia & W. Virginia. Midwestern states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, N. Dakota, Ohio, S. Dakota & Wisconsin. Western states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada (excluding Clark County), New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington & Wyoming. *Note: Respondent base size = 3,601. Total may not add to 100% due to rounding or because multiple responses were permitted. Source: Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority Las Vegas Visitor Profile.
24 Visitor Profile 1.Visitor Demographic 2. Reasons For Visiting 3. Travel Planning 4.Trip Characteristics & Expenditures 5. Gaming Behavior & Budgets 6. Entertainment 7. Visitor Satisfaction
25 Frequency of Visits in Past Five Years (Among All Visitors) 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 24% 28% 2004 (Avg.=6.5) 2005 (Avg.=6.3) 2006 (Avg.=6.2) 2007 (Avg.=6.3) 2008 (Avg.=6.8) One Two to three Four to five Six to ten More than ten 15% 16% 5-yr Avg. 18% 25 Source: LVCVA 2008 Las Vegas Visitor Profile Annual Report.
26 Primary Purpose Of Current Visit (Among All Visitors) Vacation/Pleasure 39% To Gamble 13% Convention/Corp. Meet 12% Friends/Relatives 11% Other Business Passing Through Special Event Wedding Casino Tourney Other 6% 4% 3% 0% 2% 9% Top 3 reasons change little: 1. Vacation/Pleasure 2. To Gamble 3. Conventions 64% of Total 26 0% 20% 40% 60% Source: LVCVA 2008 Las Vegas Visitor Profile Annual Report.
27 Importance of Factors in Deciding to Visit Las Vegas (Among Vacation/Pleasure Visitors) See Resorts Shows/Entertain. Gambling Dining/Restaurants Most important: -See Resorts -Entertainment -Gambling -Restaurants -Shopping Shopping 2.9 Clubs/Nightlife Spas Golf Less important: -Nightlife -Spas -Golfing Not at all important Avg. Very important Source: LVCVA 2008 Las Vegas Visitor Profile Annual Report.
28 Visitor Profile 1. Visitor Demographic 2. Reasons For Visiting 3. Travel Planning 4.Trip Characteristics & Expenditures 5. Gaming Behavior & Budgets 6. Entertainment 7. Visitor Satisfaction
29 Transportation to Las Vegas ( Visitors) 100% Auto/Bus/RV 75% Air 50% 25% 0% Source: LVCVA 2008 Las Vegas Visitor Profile Annual Report.
30 Visitor Profile 1. Visitor Demographic 2. Reasons For Visiting 3. Travel Planning 4.Trip Characteristics & Expenditures 5. Gaming Behavior & Budgets 6. Entertainment 7. Visitor Satisfaction
31 Nights & Days Stayed (Among Visitors) 1 day / 0 nights 2 days / 1 night 0% 8% In 2008, visitors stayed an avg. of 3.5 nights & 4.5 days in Las Vegas - consistent with past averages 22% 3 days / 2 nights 28% 4 days / 3 nights 21% 5 days / 4 nights 22% 6 ± days / 5 ± nights 31 0% 10% 20% 30% Source: LVCVA 2008 Las Vegas Visitor Profile Annual Report.
32 Location of Lodging (Among Visitors) 100% % 74% 50% 74% of 2008 visitors stayed in a property on the Strip Corridor* 25% 0% The Strip Corridor* 13% 8% 5% Downtown Boulder Strip Outlying Areas Other 1% 32 *Properties located directly on LV Blvd South up to the Stratosphere, as well as properties near the Strip, between Valley View Road & Paradise Road. Source: LVCVA 2008 Las Vegas Visitor Profile Annual Report.
33 Average Trip Spending on Food/Drink & Local Transportation ( Visitors) $255 $273 Food/Drink $261 $249 $239 $90 $ Food/Drink avg. spending in 08 ($273) up a lot from past years Local Transport. $100 $88 $ Avg. trip on local transp. down from previous 2 years $0 $80 $160 $240 $320 Average Per Trip 33 Source: LVCVA 2008 Las Vegas Visitor Profile Annual Report.
34 Average Trip Spending on Shopping, Shows & Sightseeing ( Visitors) Shopping $122 $115 $141 $137 $124 Shows Sightseeing $7 $8 $8 $8 $8 $52 $48 $51 $49 $ Average trip spending on shopping was $122 in 2008, down significantly from 2006 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 Average Per Trip 34 Source: LVCVA 2008 Las Vegas Visitor Profile Annual Report.
35 Visitor Profile 1. Visitor Demographic 2. Reasons For Visiting 3. Travel Planning 4.Trip Characteristics & Expenditures 5. Gaming Behavior & Budgets 6. Entertainment 7. Visitor Satisfaction
36 Trip Gambling Budget (Among Visitors Who Gambled) 5% 10% $0 - $ (Avg.=$532) 2007 (Avg.=$556) $200 - $399 $400 - $ (Avg.=$652) 2005 (Avg.=$627) 2004 (Avg.=$545) 13% avg. gambling budget ($532) down from previous years - 22% of gamblers budgeted $600 or more for gambling in 2008, similar to previous year, but down a lot from 28% in 2005 & 30% in % $600 or more 5% Not sure 0% 10% 20% 30% 36 Source: LVCVA 2008 Las Vegas Visitor Profile Annual Report.
37 Visitor Profile 1. Visitor Demographic 2. Reasons For Visiting 3. Travel Planning 4.Trip Characteristics & Expenditures 5. Gaming Behavior & Budgets 6. Entertainment 7. Visitor Satisfaction
38 % of Visitors Who Attended a Show/Entertainment Venue ( Visitors) 100% 75% 82% 71% 76% Down from 82% in 2004 & 76% in 2006, but up from 63% last year. 63% 72% 50% 25% 0% Source: LVCVA 2008 Las Vegas Visitor Profile Annual Report.
39 Types of Entertainment Attended* ( Visitors) Headliners Productions/Broadways 18% 32% Lounge Acts 74% Comedy Revues 14% Impersonators/Tribute 6% Magic Shows 7% 39 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% *Multiple responses permitted. Source: LVCVA 2008 Las Vegas Visitor Profile Annual Report.
40 Visitor Profile 1. Visitor Demographic 2. Reasons For Visiting 3. Travel Planning 4.Trip Characteristics & Expenditures 5. Gaming Behavior & Budgets 6. Entertainment 7. Visitor Satisfaction
41 Satisfaction With Visit to Las Vegas ( Visitors) 100% Very Satisfied 75% Somewhat Satisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied/Very Dissatisfied 50% 93% 94% 96% 89% 93% 25% Visitors continue to like Vegas, but value proposition IS important 0% Source: LVCVA 2008 Las Vegas Visitor Profile Annual Report.
42 Conclusions
43 Conclusions Types of Entertainment Attended* ( Visitors) 43 Recovery will be slow and plodding National economy needs at least 6 months sustained job growth to really benefit Las Vegas visitor spending But specter of job-less recovery remains Consumer confidence is only the first step, must be combined with debt reduction & then by spending Discretionary spending will be constrained Spending on dining out will return first Luxury market recovery will lag, emphasis on value Continue seeing pressure from tenants on terms So when will see the start of a sustained recovery in Vegas?
44 Conclusions & Observations, Cont. Types of Entertainment Attended* ( Visitors)
45 Contact: John Restrepo
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