Automotive Employment and Skill Needs Outlook

Transcription

1 Automotive Employment and Skill Needs Outlook AMTEC Spring Academy Smyrna, Tennessee 11 April 2013 Kristin Dziczek Director, Labor and Industry Group Center for Automotive Research Ann Arbor, Michigan

2 Roadmap to Today s Presentation Overall Industry Trends How Many Workers Do We Need? Labor Supply What Educators Need to Know

3 Overall Automotive Trends

4 Automotive Overview The U.S. automotive industry: Employs over 660,000 people (12/2012) 1 Produces over $522 Billion in shipments (2012) 2 Exports over $128 Billion in motor vehicles and parts (2012) 3 Supports $564 Billion in U.S. automotive sales (2012) 4 Supports $173 Billion in repairs and service revenue (2012) 4 Provides $92 Billion in state tax revenues (13% of total) in the U.S. (2010) 5 Provides $43 Billion in federal tax revenues (2010) 5 Has a jobs multiplier of 10 one of the highest of any industry 6 Source: Center for Automotive Research 1 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Survey 2 U.S. Department of Commerce, Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey 3 U.S. Department of Commerce, Foreign Trade Division, trade.gov 4 Center for Automotive Research estimates 5 Center for Automotive Research, Assessment of Tax Revenue Generated by the Automotive Sector, April Center for Automotive Research, Contribution of the Automotive Industry to the Economies of all Fifty States and the United States, April 2010 Industry Trends

5 Is the Auto Industry Back? Product? Yes. Productivity? Yes. Profitability? Yes. Investment? Yes. Production? Not yet. Sales? Not yet. Employment? No. Industry Trends

6 Productivity Index (2000 = 100) Recessions and U.S. Automotive Productivity Automotive Productivity Index consists of SIC 3711/3714 and NAICS 3361/ is the base year. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Industry Trends

7 Recovery is Slow: Monthly Sales (SAAR) Jan Mar Monthly Sales 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Monthly Sales) months 71 months? (66, so far) Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Industry Trends

8 GDP Growth Rate Vehicle Sales Growth Rate U.S. GDP Growth Rate and Vehicle Sales Growth Rate Sales Growth GDP Growth Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Industry Trends

9 CAR s Sales Forecast M M M M M U.S. Sales Forecast (Millions) Source: Center for Automotive Research Industry Trends

10 U.S. Light Vehicle Production Percent Change, 2012 vs TOTAL Ford GM Nissan Hyundai- Kia Fiat- Chrysler Toyota Honda 19.8% 9.8% 6.1% 14.6% 17.9% 14.5% 48.0% 55.2% 10,107, ,668, % 2,120, , % 1,992, , % 644, , % 719, , % 1,330, , % 1,107, , % 1,219, , % Source: Automotive News; Center for Automotive Research Industry Trends

11 Light Vehicle Production by States, 2011 and ,500, ,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - Source: LMC Automotive Industry Trends

12 55 U.S. assembly plants 1 91% two-shift straight time capacity in 2012 (up 17% over 2011) 2 North American capacity utilization was 97% in Many plants on three shifts or alternative work schedules U.S. automotive productivity is at an all-time high 3 Hesitant to build new bricks and mortar In a million+ market, capacity may be an issue Plant conversions? (frame-to-unibody or vice versa) More captive imports? More alternative work schedules (AWS)*? More third shifts = hiring entry level workers (~15% currently) *AWS enabled by national language, determined by local agreements; includes a range of schedules: Compressed (4 10-hour shifts), Flexible (3/2/120 3 crew, 2 10-hour shifts, no OT ), and others. 1 Automotive News, Ward s Automotive Reports, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012 Industry Trends

13 How Many Workers Will We Need?

14 Motor Vehicle & Parts Manufacturing and Automotive Maintenance & Repair Employment 1999 February 2013 U.S. MV & Parts U.S. Maintenance & Repair 1,200,000 1,128,400 1,000, , , , , , , ,000 Since July 2009 US MV & Parts + 26% (overall -41%, was -54%) Feb 2013 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Labor Forecast

15 U.S. Automaker and Parts Employment per Assembly Plant, ,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Parts Employment/Assembly Plant Automaker Employment/Assembly Plant Number of Assembly Plants -11% +7% +4% +10% -19% -13% +13% +5% +6% -18% Source: CAR Research, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Labor Forecast

16 Production Employment U.S. Vehicle Production & Automotive Employment Forecasts, ,400, ,000 11,200,000 11,000,000 10,800, ,000 10,600,000 10,400, ,000 10,200,000 10,000,000 9,800, Vehicle Production 10,375,257 10,900,000 11,000,000 11,100,000 11,200,000 Automotive Employment 647, , , , , ,000 Source: Automotive News; Center for Automotive Research; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Mar Labor Forecast

17 U.S. Skilled Trades Outlook: Highest Growth Occupations Over 50,000 New Jobs Projected (7/94 Occupations are Auto Trades) Automotive Service Technicians & Mechanics Electricians Industrial Machinery Mechanics Industrial Truck & Tractor Operators Maintenance & Repair Workers, General Plumbers, Pipefitters & Steamfitters Welders, Cutters, Solderers & Brazers Over 20% Growth Rate Projected (6/148 Occupations are Auto Trades) Automotive Glass Installers & Repairers Electricians Helpers Electricians Helpers Pipelayers, Plumbers, Pipefitters & Steamfitters Industrial Machinery Mechanics Plumbers, Pipefitters & Steamfitters Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2013 Note: Over 69% of the occupations that are projected to add 50,000 or more new jobs require an Associates Degree or less; 63% do not require a degree. Nearly 57 % of occupations that are projected to grow at a rate of 20% or more require an Associates Degree or less; 47% do not require a degree. Labor Forecast

18 Labor Supply

19 Common Employer Refrain We want to hire, but we can t find any skilled workers! Labor Supply

20 Why Can t Employers Find Workers They Need? They ve all retired? Lower wages? Greater risk for career in the auto industry? No work ethic? Narrowly-defined job postings? Low academic achievement? Skills mismatch? No luxury of time to train/re-train? SEARCHING FOR A u t o m o t i ve Ta l e n t Strong and current technical skills Understand budget/financial constraints Systems thinking Collaboration/ability to work in a team Strong communication skills 5-10 years industry experience Ability to juggle and wear many hats Call: Please help! Labor Supply

21 Skills Shortages Are Common in Recovery Unemployment may run up into the millions, but as the iron, steel and metalworking industries improve, a scarcity of skilled workmen is developing In the case of welders, for example, technological progress has been so rapid during the depression that a welder unemployed since 1929 is outmoded. no apprentices are coming along to fill the gaps caused by death and shifts of personnel to other industries or back to the farm. Labor Supply

22 Are Manufacturing Talent and Skills Gaps Slowing the Recovery? 74% of U.S. manufacturers reported that workforce shortages or skill deficiencies in the skilled production workforce (machinists, operators, craft workers, distributors, technicians) have had a significant negative impact on their company s ability to expand operations and improve productivity 42% reported that shortages or skill deficiencies in the production support workforce (industrial engineers, manufacturing engineers, planners) have had significant negative impact Source: Boiling Point: The Skills Gap in U.S. Manufacturing, Deloitte and the Manufacturing Institute, 2011 Labor Supply

23 Unemployment Rate, Percent Unemployed in Thousands Unemployment Rate, Percent U.S. Unemployment Rate, Overall, Transportation Equipment Manufacturing, and By Occupation, 2000-January # of Unemployed-Transportation Equipment Transportation Equipment Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate Production occupations Installation, maintenance, and repair Architecture and Engineering Computer and Mathematical Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey Labor Supply

24 Jan-02 Jun-02 Nov-02 Apr-03 Sep-03 Feb-04 Jul-04 Dec-04 May-05 Oct-05 Mar-06 Aug-06 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Employees (Thousands) U.S. Durable Goods Manufacturing, Reasons for Job Separation, 12-Month Moving Average 2002 Feb Layoffs Other Reason Quits Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Labor Supply

25 Labor Force Participation % U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey Labor Supply

26 Annual Percent Change in Median Real Annual Wage Growth by Occupation, for Selected Occupations, Michigan, Occupation Electrical Engineers 2.0% 1.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.2% 0.4% Industrial Engineers 5.5% 4.0% 3.4% -0.4% 1.7% -5.4% Mechanical Engineers 6.2% 4.4% 3.0% 6.2% 1.3% -2.1% Electricians 2.9% 1.6% 0.8% -2.4% -2.0% -2.1% Industrial Machinery Mechanics 2.2% -1.9% -0.7% -0.9% -0.3% -4.4% Millwrights 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% -2.8% -5.1% -9.5% Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal 4.7% 3.5% 0.7% 3.1% -2.3% -3.7% Numerical Tool and Process Control Programmers 1.5% 0.4% 3.7% 4.2% -1.6% -6.5% Machinists 0.4% -2.6% 1.4% 4.0% 1.9% 0.9% Tool and Die Makers -2.1% 3.9% 3.6% -1.5% -0.8% -9.1% Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers 0.4% 1.5% -3.1% -0.7% -2.0% -2.3% Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setters, Operators and Tenders 0.6% -11.7% 0.6% 2.7% 6.3% -10.1% Team Assemblers -1.0% -9.6% 5.2% 12.4% 3.7% 3.4% Note: Rate of Inflation 2.9% 1.9% 2.7% -0.8% 1.1% 3.6% Source: Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget, Office of Labor Market Information, Median Wages by Occupational Title; U.S. Department of Labor, CPI-W for Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint, Annual (Not Seasonally Adjusted), =100. Labor Supply

27 Percent Change 10-year Change in Earnings by Educational Attainment 2000 and 2010 (inflation adjusted) 2.0% 0.0% 0.5% -2.0% -4.0% -3.3% -6.0% -8.0% -5.9% -7.0% -4.8% -10.0% -12.0% -9.9% Less than HS HS Grad % Some College Assoc. Degree -9.8% College Grad. Masters Degree Prof. Degree Ph.D. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey Labor Supply

28 U.S. Skilled Trades Employment Per 1,000 Jobs, 2012 Indiana Michigan Ohio South Carolina Kentucky Alabama Mississippi Tennessee Kansas Illinois Missouri Georgia Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics. Labor Supply

29 Median Age for Selected Skilled Trades Occupations, 2011 Electricians Industiral Machinery Mechanics Millwrights Computer Control Programmers and Machinists Tool and Die Makers Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Workers Maintenance and Repair, General Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey 42.1 Average Age, All Occupations Labor Supply

30 K-12 Science and Math Education Rankings, 2011 NAEP 8 th Grade Mathematics Massachusetts Minnesota New Jersey Vermont Montana New Hampshire North Dakota Colorado South Dakota Texas Kansas Virginia Maine Wisconsin Ohio Washington Maryland Wyoming Connecticut Idaho North Carolina Pennsylvania Indiana Iowa Utah Alaska Illinois Nebraska Rhode Island Delaware Oregon Missouri Kentucky South Carolina New York Michigan Oklahoma Arkansas Arizona Georgia Nevada Florida Hawaii New Mexico Tennessee West Virginia Louisiana California Mississippi Alabama District of Columbia NAEP 8 th Grade Science North Dakota Montana Vermont New Hampshire South Dakota Utah Massachusetts Minnesota Colorado Wyoming Maine Virginia Idaho Wisconsin Ohio Iowa Michigan Kentucky Nebraska Missouri Washington Kansas Oregon New Jersey Connecticut Alaska Indiana Texas Maryland Pennsylvania Georgia Tennessee Delaware West Virginia Rhode Island South Carolina New York Florida Oklahoma North Carolina Arkansas Illinois New Mexico Nevada Arizona Louisiana Hawaii California Alabama Mississippi District of Columbia Science, Technology, Engineering & Math (STEM) Education Matters to Automakers and Suppliers 8 of 13 Automotive States rank below the national average for 8 th Grade Mathematics assessments 6 of 13 Automotive States rank below the national average for 8 th Grade Science assessments Similar results for grades 4 and 12 Large gender, race, and economic status gaps Source: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 2011 Mathematics and Science Assessments. Labor Supply

31 What Educators Need to Know

32 Automotive Technology is Changing Materials and Processes Powertrain and Fuels Connected Vehicles Next generation high strength steels Foamed metals Aluminum and magnesium alloys Corrosion protection Bio-based materials Advanced plastics and composites Mold in color/films/other for plastics Alternative automotive trim cover insert and/or bolster fabrics Recycled low cost filler materials Coating technology Non-destructive testing methods Robotics simulation software Forming high strength steels New laser technology for trimming, piercing and cutting New joining technologies Tool rapid heating and cooling Multi-material joining technologies Low cost fine blanking alternatives Gasoline direct injection Turbochargers and superchargers Dual-clutch transmissions Higher-speed automatic transmissions (8- or 9-speed) Continuously variable transmissions Vehicle electrification: motor assist, hybrid electric vehicles, plug in hybrid electric vehicles, extended range electric vehicles, or battery electric vehicles Alternative fuels: natural gas, biofuels (E85 and B20), and hydrogen Advanced Driver Assistance Radar, light detection and ranging (LiDAR), and cameras Forward collision warning systems Automatic emergency braking and steering Back-up and rear-view assistance systems Lane departure and lane-keeping assistance systems Adaptive cruise control and adaptive cruise control with lane-keeping Blind spot and pedestrian detection systems Parking assistance and automated parking systems Adaptive headlights and adaptive high beams Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC); 3G, 4G, LTE Cellular; Wi-Fi; Bluetooth; and Global Positioning System Infotainment (e.g. Sync, Uconnect, and Cue) Human machine interface Collision warning and avoidance Lane departure warning Blind spot and pedestrian detection Road condition and event notification Adaptive route guidance with real-time traffic information Signal phase and timing Tolling and E-payment Location-based Services Efficiency monitoring and carbon footprint accounting Infrastructure investment planning and condition monitoring Fleet management Prognostics and diagnostics Center for Automotive Research, March 2013 Source: CAR 2013

33 Examples of What These Changes Mean Welding becomes Joining Mechanical becomes Electronic For Educators

34 What Automakers and Suppliers Want All are worried about the pipeline of future engineers & skilled production workers Engineering and Technician Co-op and other experiential learning opportunities are KEY to preparing the future workforce Beyond the basics, educators should emphasize Emerging core technologies (power electronics, software, controls, merger of electrical/ electronic/mechanical disciplines) Teamwork and communication skills Business skills (budgeting, project management, etc.) Working in a multi-cultural/global environment Real-world case studies Problem solving Manufacturing Job Content Changes Skilled trades Fewer classifications More cross-skilling More skill needs in electrical, electronics and software areas Deep maintenance may be contracted to third party providers Production workers Greater responsibility for continuous improvement and routine maintenance New technologies in powertrain, in joining and assembly, and in-vehicle communications and electronics will drive skills changes Faster product cadence and quicker pace of technological change Source: Center for Automotive Research For Educators

35 The Main Thing: Be Industry-Driven Industry-relevant skills requires real industry engagement more than twice-yearly advisory board meetings Best way to gain industry skills (technical and soft ) are: Apprenticeship, co-op, or internship employment opportunities Incorporate industry context in curriculum Real world problems Cross-functional projects To be Industry-Driven requires specialization Community and Technical Colleges Play a Vital Role in Job Retention and Creation: Meet needs of local industry Work with economic developers to meet needs of future employers Tap into resources to understand and respond to broader industry and technology trends Cultivate your brand aim to be THE place employers go for skilled workers For Educators

36 Thank you Kristin Dziczek