Richard Harvey Group Chief Executive Aviva plc

Transcription

1 Richard Harvey Group Chief Executive Aviva plc Capturing value in a challenging environment UBS Warburg Conference New York 29 April 2003

2 Disclaimer 2 This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements with respect to certain of Aviva s plans and its current goals and expectations relating to its future financial condition, performance and results. By their nature, all forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances which are beyond Aviva s control including among other things, UK domestic and global economic business conditions, market related risks such as fluctuations in interest rates and exchange rates, the policies and actions of regulatory authorities, the impact of competition, inflation, deflation, the timing impact and other uncertainties of future acquisitions or combinations within relevant industries, as well as the impact of tax and other legislation and other regulations in the jurisdictions in which Aviva and its affiliates operate. As a result, Aviva s actual future financial condition, performance and results may differ materially from the plans, goals and expectations set forth in Aviva s forward-looking statements. Aviva undertakes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation or any other forward-looking statements we may make.

3 Aviva overview 3! The leading pan-european life insurer! Focused P&C business 72% Life* 2002 premium sales* ( 28bn) 28% P&C Cont. Europe Life 32%** UK Life 35%** Intl. Life 5%** UK P&C 17% Cont Europe P&C 6% Intl. P&C 5% * Net written premiums from continuing operations. ** Life includes retail inv sales and health.

4 Agenda 4! Short-term term Insurers re-structuring Cash, costs, capital! Longer-term Growth will return Increased organic and inorganic opportunities

5 Short-term: term: Market forces re-structuring industry 5 Shake-out Opportunities! Tough life sales environment! Weak players capitulating! Insurers re-capitalising! Reduced capital sustaining P&C pricing! Organic consolidation benefiting stronger companies

6 Aviva 2003 priorities 6! Drive P&C earnings! Size costs to revenues! Raise hurdle rates and pricing! Capital efficiency! Deliver from recent bancassurance expansion

7 Best of (European) breed P&C results 7 Aviva Combined operating ratios % of total* P&C premiums UK 101% 102% France 102% 104% Ireland 100% 101% Neths 105% 104% Canada 102% 107% Group * 102% 103% *Continuing operations

8 Aviva: : Scale advantages in UK P&C 8 % 25 UK P&C expense ratios Zurich AXA Credit Suisse Allianz RSA Norwich Union Source: FSA returns

9 Leveraging cost advantage out of Aviva s growing expertise in India 9! Call centre / claims processes supports UK P&C capacity and efficiency! Consider other applications Virtual call centre/claims processes 1,000 employees end 2003

10 Aviva cash generation in ! Large in-force statutory life profits of 1.4 bn net! Strong statutory P&C profits of 0.6 bn net! Dividend cut saved 350m Operating statutory profit (1) 21% Cont Europe & Intl life 46% Worldwide P&C 33% UK life (1) Key business areas. Continuing operations in 2002.

11 Capital: resilient position 11! Resilient CGUII structure (holds major overseas subs)! can withstand significant equity market falls! S&P AA- (stable outlook)! Strong UK life with-profit realistic realistic capital! orphan estate 4.3bn (after > 4bn for guarantees, glidepath etc )! manage bonuses / MVAs / asset mix (35% equities)! S&P AA (stable outlook)

12 Aviva in strong operational shape to meet challenges of downturn 12! Good cashflow from strong P&C earnings! Dividend rebased (1.5x covered)! Sizing costs to revenues! Resilient capital position! Diversified business and strong market positions

13 Longer-term 13

14 Longer-term savings growth prospects remain strong Demographics driving long-term savings growth > GDP Global life premiums Global GDP Source: Swiss Re/HSBC

15 UK Life market - Europe s largest 15! Attractive demographics! Government withdrawing from retirement provision m APE Growth of UK life & pensions market Banks / tied / direct IFAs 2000 Source: ABI

16 UK Life - market concentrating 16! Norwich Union outperforming market! Competitive advantage through capital strength, brand, market leading product range Market share % NU CGU NU Post Merger 11.4% %

17 UK Life market 17 m APE Product trends Pensions Source: ABI Investment bonds Protection Annuities/ income drawdown Endowments

18 Investing into lower penetrated markets and structural bancassurance growth 18 France: bancassurance from 2004 UK: bancassurance JV with RBSG Spain: created top 3 LTS business Netherlands: bancassurance JV with ABN Amro Entered Lithuania life from Poland Italy: created top 6 LTS business India: bancassurance from 2002 China: JV life business from 2003 Singapore & HK: bancassurance with DBS

19 Attractive margins from bancassurance 19 Aviva 2002 bancassurance new business margins UK (RBSG) 21.5% Spain 51.3% Italy 24.9% Singapore 29.4% 35.1% Group total margin 24.4%

20 Aviva Italy has a market leading cost base 2001 expense ratios 20 Expenses as proportion of premium income 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Consolidated Aviva life companies Other leading bancassurers All top 15 life companies Leading nonbancassurers Source: ANIA

21 Aviva Spain efficiency key to bancassurance margin 21 5 Acquisition and administration costs (% of premium, H102) 4 (%) Aseval (Aviva) Largest Spanish bancassurers Total Spanish life market Source: ICEA, data regarding H102

22 Aviva Spain: an under penetrated bank client base 22 Life insurance & pension reserves as % of total customer funds 2001 La Caixa Bancaja Banco Sabadell Ibercaja Caixa Catalunya CAM BBVA ex-america Banco Popular Caja Madrid SCH ex-america Bankinter Banco Atlántico Banco Pastor Caixa Galicia Unicaja Caja España Caja Granada 0.80% 4.1% 3.7% 3.3% 2.3% 6.0% 5.7% 5.3% 7.7% 7.5% 8.9% 10.6% 12.3% 12.2% 12.1% 15.3% 14.3% Customers 2.4m 2.3m 2.0m 1.3m 0.9m Source: ICEA, Inverco, Annual reports Pensions penetration Life insurance penetration

23 Aviva bancassurance opportunity 23! Banks have good or improving CRM! Aviva access over 30m warm bank customers in Europe! Low insurance penetration! Resilient sales channel in current markets! Opportunity to harvest deposits as equity markets recover

24 Q life sales 24 APE m Q Growth* Margin Margin % % UK 263 (22%) France 61 (3%) Ireland 21 (41%) Italy % Netherlands % Spain % Other countries % Group 601 (2%) *Local currency

25 Winners from current insurance market shake-out 25! Strong brand! Distribution access to customers! Low cost! Organic consolidation! Focussed and disciplined M&A approach

26 Aviva summary 26! Drive P&C earnings! Sizing costs to revenues! Harvest bancassurance opportunities! Beneficiary of shake-out

27 Appendix 27

28 Strong and valuable market positions 28 Rank Life Market share Life (est.) Rank P&C Market share P&C (est.) UK 2 11% 1 16% France 10 4% Top % Netherlands 4 10%* 4 9%* Spain 3 7% Italy 6 5% n/a <1% Ireland 4 11% 1 24% Canada 2 9% Poland 2 18% Singapore 3 11% 2 9% Turkey 3 13% Australia Top 10 4% * Pro forma ABN Amro JV

29 Aviva in Eastern Europe EU accession brings economic benefits 29 Poland m greenfield investment In 2002: N o 1 private pensions (29% of market) 18% of total life market 40% of individual life Over 3m customers Turkey Life launch % market share, No. 3 Czech Republic Launched 1997 Romania Launched 2000, top 5 Hungary Acquisition of Top-6 life assurer 2001 Lithuania Launched % market share, No. 4

30 India & China new ventures 30! India! JV partnership (26%) with Dabur Group in 2002! Distribution agreements with: Canara Bank (ranked 2nd, 2,400 branches) Lakshmi Vilas Bank (regional bank, 208 branches) ABN Amro American Express! China! Aviva-COFCO Life Insurance launched 1 Jan 2003! Initially operating in Guangzhou

31 Equity content in shareholders funds 31 Lower equity content in shareholders funds at 3.1bn (2001: 4.9bn) bn 2001 year end 4.9 Change in market values (1.4) Disposal of Australia/ New Zealand (0.2) Divestment of strategic stakes (0.6) Net reinvestment 0.2 Foreign exchange year end 3.1

32 Internal capital generation 32 Post-tax tax statutory operating profits bn Actual Pro forma Actual Profit from in-force Cash strain from new non-profit business (0.6) (0.6) (0.7) Life statutory profits (after new business strain) GI & health Corporate / other (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) Borrowing (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) Post-tax tax operating profits Dividend (0.9) (0.5) (0.5) Retained to fund growth Additional required solvency margin (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) Retained after solvency margin Capital generative model