NORTHERN AND YORKE DEMAND AND SUPPLY STATEMENT

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1 NORTHERN AND YORKE DEMAND AND SUPPLY STATEMENT November 2011 Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 1 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

2 CONTENTS PART 1: NORTHERN AND YORKE DEMAND AND SUPPLY STATEMENT IN SUMMARY 5 Water source mix 8 Demand supply projections 9 Key findings 10 PART 2: CURRENT RESOURCES 14 Regional overview 14 Water resources 17 River Murray water 18 Prescribed water resources 20 Non prescribed groundwater resources 21 Non prescribed surface water and watercourse water resources26 Alternative water sources 26 PART 3: FUTURE DEMAND AND SUPPLY 29 Demands 29 Population growth 29 Livestock demand 30 Viticulture demand 30 Mining demand 31 Supplies 31 Climate change 31 Water source mix 32 Demand and supply assumptions 34 Demand and supply projections 43 Projection 1: All water demands and supplies 43 Projection 2: Drinking quality water demand and supply 44 PART 4: FINDINGS 46 Demand supply projections 46 Population growth 47 Climate change 47 Water quality 49 Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 2 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

3 Isolated demand supply issues 50 Land use change 50 PART 5: STAYING ON TRACK ANNUAL REVIEW 51 DEMAND and supply statement projections 51 Review of regional demand and supply statements 51 PART 6: GLOSSARY 53 PART 7: ABBREVIATIONS 55 PART 8: BIBLIOGRAPHY 56 Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 3 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

4 FOREWORD I am pleased to present the Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement, a key commitment in Water for Good the State Government s plan to ensure our water future to The Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement is the second of eight Regional Demand and Supply Statements. These statements are high level strategic documents that project the available water supply and demands for a region and any possible future demand supply imbalance. The projections in these statements will then be used to guide the timing and nature of future demand management or supply augmentation options, when needed. The projections in the Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement suggest that demand is not likely to exceed supply for drinking quality water until 2044/45 under a worstcase scenario and not prior to 2050 under a best case scenario. These projections are based on the best available information to date. Should new information become available, such as the updated Resources and Energy Sector Infrastructure Council s (2011) Infrastructure Demand Study, it will be incorporated during the annual review, and the demand supply projections will be adjusted as necessary. This Statement will complement other water planning processes such as water allocation plans for prescribed water resource areas and SA Water s Long Term Plans. Five years prior to when demand has been projected to exceed supply, an Independent Planning Process will be initiated. It is through this process that demand management or supply augmentation options to address the shortfall will be considered. At this stage, an Independent Planning Process is not required for the Northern and Yorke region until 2039/40 at the earliest. Importantly, we will continue to monitor the situation on an annual basis to ensure we are responding to any significant change. While the quantum of drinking quality water is projected to meet demand out to 2044/45, it was identified that there were concerns around the aesthetic characteristics of some communities mains water. Through Water for Good, the State Government has already committed to investigate the viability of constructing groundwater desalination plants for regional townships where water quality (i.e. salinity) has been identified as an issue. Water security remains a challenge for South Australia but I am confident that the Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement provides critical information to help us ensure the Northern and Yorke Region s water supply continues to support its economy, lifestyle and environment. The Hon Paul Caica MP Minister for Water and the River Murray Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 4 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

5 PART 1: NORTHERN AND YORKE DEMAND AND SUPPLY STATEMENT IN SUMMARY South Australia has a vast land area with diverse landscapes and climatic conditions that influence the quantity and source of available water. Beyond the city of Adelaide, the population is scattered widely, with some regional centres, towns and communities without a local and reliable natural water source. In order to determine the best ways to secure the State s water resources, it is important to first take stock of the resources available, the current and projected future demands on them and the likely timing of any potential demand supply imbalance. It is also important to recognise that the water industry in South Australia is changing. To achieve a more dynamic water sector, the State Government s water security plan, Water for Good, commits to new water industry legislation that will better reflect the changing environment. The purpose of the new legislation is to provide a framework to support a contemporary and developing water industry by: providing for an integrated approach to water demand and supply planning; and providing for the regulation of the water industry. A changing climate, drought, economic development initiatives, and expected population growth have driven this change in what has typically been a relatively stable service sector. South Australia is also a signatory to the National Water Initiative (NWI), Australia s blueprint for water reform. The NWI promotes a more cohesive national approach to the way Australia manages, measures, plans for, prices and trades water. Within this context, the Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement is a Water for Good initiative which aims to provide a long term (40 years) overview of water supply and demand in the Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management (NRM) region of South Australia. It applies an adaptive management process to outline the state and condition of all water resources in the region for drinking and non drinking water, lists major demands on these water resources, and identifies likely timeframes for any possible future demandsupply imbalance. Water for Good states that the Minister for Water and the River Murray will establish an Independent Planning Process if demand supply projections indicate a gap is likely to exist in the foreseeable future. Therefore, this statement will be used to guide planning for the timing and nature of future demand management or supply options, ensuring that long term solutions are based on a thorough understanding of the state of local resources, the demand for them, and likely future pressures, including the impacts of climate change. The Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement will be reviewed annually, checking the status of the resources and the assumptions on which the statement is based. Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 5 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

6 The statement will also be comprehensively reviewed and updated every five years, unless such a review is triggered earlier based on the findings of the annual review process. The Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement builds on, and does not duplicate, other water planning processes. Other key plans that link to the Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement include: South Australia s Strategic Plan; Water for Good; Strategic Infrastructure Plan for South Australia; State Natural Resources Management Plan; SA Water s Long Term Plan for Yorke Peninsula; Water Allocation Plan for the Clare Valley Prescribed Water Resources Area; Water Allocation Plan for the River Murray Prescribed Watercourse; Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Plan; Mid North Region Plan; Far North Region Plan; Yorke Peninsula Regional Land Use Framework; and Central Local Government Region of South Australia Water Supply Investigation. The Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement is based on the Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management (NRM) region, as shown in Figure 1. Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 6 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

7 Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 7 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

8 The Northern and Yorke NRM region incorporates 44 urban centres or rural townships, including Port Augusta, Port Pirie, Clare, Kadina, Moonta, Wallaroo and Peterborough. SA Water mains distribution systems include the Morgan Whyalla system, Swan Reach Paskeville system, Warooka system, Melrose system, Orroroo system, Wilmington system, Quorn system and Hawker system. The Morgan Whyalla and Swan Reach Paskeville systems supply River Murray water and the remaining systems supply groundwater water from various aquifers. Water for the environment is essential for ecosystem and waterway health and ultimately the resources productivity. The environmental water provisions of the Northern and Yorke region are set out in water allocations plans for the Clare Valley and Baroota Prescribed Water Resources Areas (PWRA), and the Northern and Yorke NRM Plan. As such, environmental water provisions are not explicitly included in this statement. When preparing water allocation plans one of the issues considered is the quantity and quality of water needed for dependent ecosystems, and the time periods during which those ecosystems need water. The appropriate proportions are then set aside to meet these demands and the remaining proportion is available for allocation. The Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement only includes supply from the PWRAs available for allocation, meaning the remainder is available to the environment. Further, the Northern and Yorke NRM Plan contains a viable water resources target that aims to have viable water resources that support environmental, social and economic needs. WATER SOURCE MIX Figure 2 (below) outlines the current and projected future water sources in the Northern and Yorke region under possible scenarios for both low and high greenhouse gas emissions. As can be seen, the Northern and Yorke region is heavily reliant on the River Murray for their water supply, with surface water providing the second largest volume of water, followed by groundwater resources. The current (2010) combined total drinking and non drinking quality water sources of the region are 53.6 GL. Based on the assumptions outlined in Table 8, the supply volume is not projected to change by 2025 under the low greenhouse gas emissions scenario, remaining at approximately 53.6 GL, however it is projected to decrease slightly to 53.3 GL by 2025 under the high emissions scenario. Water available from the Clare Valley PWRA and Baroota PWRA is projected to slightly decrease by 2025 as a consequence of climate change, under the low emissions scenario. These losses are projected to be offset by the volume of recycled water available in 2025, with the total available supply therefore remaining unchanged. While the projected volume of recycled water also increases out to 2025 under the high climate change scenario, the projected reduction in water available from the Clare Valley PWRA and Baroota PWRA as a consequence of climate change is greater, which results in the slight decrease in water available in 2025 under the high emissions scenario. By 2050, the demand supply projections suggest that the total water supply will decrease slightly to approximately 52.7 GL under the low climate change scenario and 51.9 GL under Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 8 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

9 the high climate change scenario because of an assumed decrease in the amount of water available from the Clare Valley PWRA and Baroota PWRA. Figure 2: Northern and Yorke s water sources for drinking and non drinking purposes DEMAND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS Two different demand supply projections are considered in this statement under high and low population growth and climate change scenarios: Projection 1: All water demands and supplies; and Projection 2: Drinking quality water demand and supply. The first projection refers to drinking and non drinking quality water supplies and demand for water for all human purposes such as domestic use, stock use, irrigation, industrial, commercial etc. Demand from water dependent ecosystems is incorporated as previously described on page 8. Table 1 outlines the impact on demand and supply for both projections under scenarios for both high and low population growth and climate change. Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 9 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

10 Table 1: Demand supply projections Projection 1: All water demands and supplies Scenario High population growth/high climate change High population growth/low climate change Low population growth/high climate change Low population growth/low climate change Projected outcome Demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to Demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to Demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to Demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to Projection 2: Drinking quality water demand and supply Scenario Projected outcome High population growth Demand is projected to exceed supply in 2044/45. Low population growth Demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to Note: The projected outcomes are dependent on all of the assumptions outlined in Table 8 occurring. KEY FINDINGS The River Murray is the major water source in the region, currently 31.8 GL (59% of total water resources). The Commonwealth Water Amendment Act 2008 (Cth) outlines that South Australian entitlement holders have the right to divert GL/a of water from the River Murray for consumptive purposes. This includes SA Water s 50 GL/a licence for country town water supply purposes and their five year rolling licence of 650 GL for metropolitan Adelaide. The Northern and Yorke region receives most of their River Murray water from the country town water licence, with a smaller portion from the metropolitan Adelaide licence. At present, the Murray Darling Basin Authority is developing the Basin Plan, which, among other matters, will set sustainable diversion limits on water resource extraction from the Murray Darling Basin. This may result in sustainable diversion limits that are lower than current diversions. The Commonwealth Government has committed to bridge the gap between new sustainable diversion limits in the plan and current diversions through water purchase from willing sellers and investment in water saving infrastructure. This will minimise any impacts on water entitlement holders. The South Australian Government will Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 10 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

11 consider the implications for South Australian diversions from the River Murray in responding to the Basin Plan. The second biggest source of water is from surface water (currently 12 GL). Although the current climate change science undertaken in the Northern and Yorke region has focussed on the Clare Valley and Baroota PWRAs, it is reasonable to assume that we will also see a decrease to runoff and recharge of other water resources throughout the Northern and Yorke region as a result of climate change. Therefore, it is likely that there will be a greater reduction in the volume of surface water available in the region over time. The next largest source of water is groundwater resources (currently 5.5 GL). As already mentioned, climate change is projected to reduce the runoff and recharge to the water resources of the Clare Valley and Baroota PWRAs and is likely to also reduce recharge to other groundwater resources in the region. Climate change will reduce runoff and recharge to the water resources of the Clare Valley PWRA and the Baroota PWRA as outlined in the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Northern and Yorke NRM Region (2011). Based on modelling, Table 2a and 2b (below) outline the projected impacts these reductions in runoff and recharge may have on the water resources of the Clare Valley PWRA and the Baroota PWRA, under the low and high climate change scenarios. Table 2a: Projected impact of climate change on the Clare Valley PWRA Water Resource Allocated water in 2010 (ML) Projected allocation in 2050 under low climate change scenario (ML) Projected allocation in 2050 under high climate change scenario (ML) Projected range of reduction in runoff or recharge by 2050 (ML) Clare Valley PWRA surface water Clare Valley PWRA watercourse water Clare Valley PWRA groundwater Note: The data in this table is based on allocations reducing proportionally to catchment yield. Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 11 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

12 Table 2b: Projected impact of climate change on the Baroota PWRA Water Resource Estimated sustainable yield in 2010 (ML) Projected sustainable yield in 2050 under low climate change scenario (ML) Projected sustainable yield in 2050 under high climate change scenario (ML) Projected range of reduction in runoff or recharge by 2050 (ML) Baroota PWRA surface water Baroota PWRA groundwater Note: The data in this table is based on the sustainable yield reducing proportionally to catchment yield. It is projected that the major increase in demand in the Northern and Yorke region will come from population growth, closely followed by demand from livestock. The projections suggest that demand will increase as a result of population growth within the range of 1.2 and 3.2 GL by It is projected that the major population growth within the Northern and Yorke Region will be due to gains from retirement migration (South Australian Government, 2010). It is not expected that there will be major population growth within the Northern and Yorke Region due to mining. The majority of population growth due to mining is projected to occur outside this region in Roxby Downs, due to the planned Olympic Dam expansion (South Australian Government, 2010). Demand from livestock is projected to increase by approximately 2 GL by South Australia s Strategic Plan contains targets for exploration, production and processing in the mining sector that will drive significant growth over the next 40 years. The 2009 Resources and Energy Sector Infrastructure Council (RESIC) Infrastructure Demand Study shows there are currently no mines either in operation or advanced stages of exploration within the Northern and Yorke region. Although there is interest in mining development in the Northern and Yorke region, no demand from the mining industry has been factored into these projections at this stage. An updated RESIC Infrastructure Demand Study is due for imminent release. Preliminary data indicates that there is a likelihood of there being up to two mining projects in the Northern and Yorke region. These projects are currently in feasibility stage and as such their water requirements are difficult to define at this time. There are also prospective projects that are currently in early exploration. It is anticipated that these projects may seek their water from a variety of sources. The information arising from this study will be incorporated during the annual review of the Statement and the projections will be adjusted as required. There is community concern about the quality of water supplied from some groundwater resources to some of the townships in the mid north section of the Northern and Yorke region. The concern centres on the aesthetic quality of the water, namely the taste of the water, and how the quality of the water is damaging household pipes and appliances. Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 12 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

13 There are water supply shortages for some townships during peak periods within SA Water s Upper Paskeville Water Supply System (WSS) and Warooka WSS in the Yorke Peninsula area. To address these issues, SA Water is investigating options to: Augment the Warren Bundaleer junction to increase supply through the junction Connect the Warooka WSS to the Upper Paskeville WSS. SA Water will continue to monitor the system for trends in demand and will implement the infrastructure upgrades when required. Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 13 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

14 PART 2: CURRENT RESOURCES REGIONAL OVERVIEW The region encompassed by the Northern and Yorke NRM Board covers a land area of more than 34,500 km 2 and supports approximately 83,000 people. The majority of the population lives in the two northern cities of Port Augusta and Port Pirie (30%) and the key regional centres of Clare, Kadina, Moonta, Wallaroo and Peterborough (17%). The balance live in smaller towns (24%) or rural localities (29%) (Northern and Yorke NRM Board, 2008). Table 3: Local government areas and populations of the Northern and Yorke region Council Area Population (2006 Census) District Council of Barunga West 2546 Clare and Gilbert Valleys Council 8143 District Council of the Copper Coast The Flinders Ranges Council 1730 District Council of Mount Remarkable 2842 Northern Areas Council 4650 District Council of Orroroo Carrieton 935 District Council of Peterborough 1904 Port Augusta City Council Port Pirie Regional Council Wakefield Regional Council 6372 District Council of Yorke Peninsula The predominant industries in the region are agriculture, forestry, fishing and aquaculture, and manufacturing. The agriculture, forestry and fishing industries contribute approximately $357.5m to the Northern and Yorke region s gross regional product ( ) (Department of Trade and Economic Development, 2009). Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 14 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

15 Almost 80% of the region s land is dedicated to agriculture, with large scale production of cereal crops, predominantly wheat and barley, together with livestock and viticulture (Northern and Yorke NRM Board, 2008). There are two major forest reserves in the region covering approximately 7000 hectares. Of this, 3252 hectares is Gazetted as Native Forest Reserve for conservation purposes and the balance is predominantly commercial pine plantations. There is some mining activity at Mintaro and on the eastern shore of Gulf St Vincent, with major processing operations of heavy metals such as zinc, lead, copper, silver and gold at the Nyrstar smelter in Port Pirie. Also, the Yorke Peninsula is a popular recreational destination for South Australians (Northern and Yorke NRM Board, 2008). The climatic characteristics of the region are its mild winters and hot summers. Rain falls predominantly in the winter months, but conditions vary over the region with differences in latitude and altitude. The Clare Valley, central Yorke Peninsula and the Southern Flinders receive the most rain within the region, with long term annual averages of 637 mm in Clare, 503 mm in Maitland, 350 mm in Port Pirie and 311 mm in Hawker (SILO Patched Point Dataset, Jeffery et al., 2001). Research by the CSIRO (2008 and 2009) and Heneker and Cresswell (2010) have identified that over the past 20 years there has been a decline in rainfall across south eastern Australia, including the Murray Darling Basin, the Mount Lofty Ranges and in south west Western Australia. Figures 3 and 4 show that there has also been a declining trend in rainfall and an increase in the average annual maximum temperature over the past 20 years in the Northern and Yorke region. The townships shown in Figures 3 and 4 were selected to provide a climatic cross section of the Northern and Yorke region. It is important to note that annual rainfall is highly variable and it can be difficult to detect long term trends over shorter periods (even one or two decades) amongst this annual variability. Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 15 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

16 Figure 3: Annual rainfall data for the townships of Clare, Maitland, Port Pirie and Hawker for the period (SILO Patched Point Dataset, Jeffery et al., 2001) Figure 4: Average annual maximum temperature data for the townships of Clare, Maitland, Port Pirie and Hawker for the period (SILO Patched Point Dataset, Jeffery et al., 2001) Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 16 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

17 WATER RESOURCES Water is a critical input to the Northern and Yorke NRM Region s economic production and for its environment. The quality of groundwater in many areas is sufficiently saline to limit its suitability for many economic purposes without costly treatment. The region relies on water supplies from three key sources: groundwater; surface water and watercourse water; and imported water from the River Murray. Figure 5 shows the majority of the region s water is currently supplied from the River Murray. The second largest water source in the region is surface water captured in farm dams. The third largest water source in the region is groundwater. It is important to note that these resources have a broad spatial distribution (see Figure 1) throughout the region and there are currently infrastructure limitations which restrict the ability to distribute these resources further. Figure 5: Northern and Yorke water supplies Figure 6 shows that Northern and Yorke s current water use (drinking and non drinking quality water) is spread quite evenly across four water uses stock (dairy cattle, meat cattle and sheep), non residential (e.g. industrial, commercial and institutional), residential and irrigation (rural irrigation, irrigation of public open spaces, dust suppression and road construction). There is a very small volume set aside for stand by water supplies. Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 17 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

18 Figure 6: Northern and Yorke s current water use from drinking and non drinking quality supplies Figure 7 compares residential and non residential use of drinking quality water from a selection of townships across the Northern and Yorke region. It shows that the majority of drinking quality water used in the industrial townships of Port Augusta and Port Pirie is for non residential purposes. In other townships the majority of drinking quality water is used for residential purposes. Figure 7: drinking quality water use for the Port Augusta, Kadina, Clare, Port Pirie, Balaklava, Crystal Brook Maitland and Jamestown townships ( SA Water data) River Murray water Water from the River Murray is used throughout South Australia for irrigation, industrial, commercial, recreational, stock and domestic and urban water supplies, as well as for the environment. The Water Amendment Act 2008 (Cth) outlines that South Australian entitlement holders have the right to divert GL/a of water from the River Murray for Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 18 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

19 consumptive purposes. This includes SA Water s 50 GL/a for country town water supply purposes and their five year rolling licence of 650 GL for metropolitan Adelaide. The Northern and Yorke region receives most of their River Murray water from the country town water licence, with a smaller portion from the metropolitan Adelaide licence. At present, the Murray Darling Basin Authority is developing the Basin Plan, which, among other matters, will set sustainable diversion limits on water resource extraction from the Murray Darling Basin. This may result in sustainable diversion limits that are lower than current diversions. The Commonwealth Government has committed to bridge the gap between new sustainable diversion limits in the Basin Plan and current diversions through water purchase from willing sellers and investment in water saving infrastructure. This will minimise any impacts on water entitlement holders. The South Australian Government will consider the implications for South Australian diversions from the River Murray in responding to the development of the Basin Plan. SA Water operates approximately 8,000 km of water supply mains in the Northern and Yorke NRM Region. Currently 59% (31.8 GL) of the region s water supply is imported from the River Murray via the Morgan Whyalla pipeline and the Swan Reach Paskeville pipeline. The Morgan Whyalla pipeline has an estimated physical capacity to distribute 25.6 GL/a of River Murray water into the Northern and Yorke region. Based on the current proportional use of the existing metropolitan and country River Murray licences, which may vary in the future depending on demand from other areas, the current estimated resource capacity of 26.2 GL/a exceeds the estimated distribution capability. The estimated physical capacity of the Morgan Whyalla pipeline incorporates the capacity of the Clare Valley Water Supply Scheme (CVWSS). In 2004, SA Water constructed the CVWSS in order to meet three main objectives: 1. provide reticulated water to townships within the Clare Valley Leasingham, Mintaro, Penwortham, Sevenhills and Watervale; 2. transfer water from the Morgan Whyalla pipeline to the Swan Reach Paskeville pipeline; and 3. provide irrigation water for customers in the Clare Valley region. The capacity of the CVWLSS is 7 GL/a, of which 3.5 GL/a is available to irrigators. The remainder is available to supply township demand within the Clare Valley and to provide transfer flow into the Swan Reach Paskeville pipeline system. The water provided for irrigation purposes through the CVWSS is a combination of water sourced through the Morgan Whyalla pipeline resource which is licensed to SA Water and third party transportation per irrigator licences. The reported application of River Murray water increased from 779ML in 2006/07 to 1012ML in 2008/09 (Northern and Yorke NRM Board, 2009). In addition to the Morgan Whyalla pipeline, the Swan Reach Paskeville pipeline has an estimated physical capacity to distribute 6.2 GL/a of River Murray water to the Northern and Yorke region. Based on the current proportional use of the existing metropolitan and country River Murray licences, which may vary in the future depending on demand from other areas, the estimated resource capacity is 5.6 GL/a. Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 19 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

20 Prescribed water resources There are two prescribed water resources areas (PWRA) in the Northern and Yorke region the Clare Valley PWRA and the Baroota PWRA. A description of prescription and prescribed water resources is provided in the glossary. Clare Valley PWRA The water resources managed under the water allocation plan for the Clare Valley PWRA include surface water, watercourse water and groundwater resources. The total licensed water available, as of , from the Clare Valley PWRA is approximately 4.2 GL/a, with total licensed usage for , and estimated at approximately 2.2 GL/a, 2.3 GL/a and 2.0 GL/a respectively. Table 4: Clare Valley PWRA licensed water available and licensed water used (data sourced from the Department for Water) Water source Licensed water allocations (ML) Licensed water usage (ML) Licensed water usage (ML) Licensed water usage (ML) Surface Water Watercourse Water Groundwater Total After a prolonged period of declining groundwater levels in the Clare Valley PWRA caused by below average rainfall, groundwater level trends over the past three years are showing some recovery in response to recent wet years for the higher rainfall area (i.e. areas with rainfall greater than 600 mm/a). Outside this area, water levels have shown little or no response to the recent higher rainfall and levels remain at historical lows (South Australian Government, a). Groundwater salinity trends appear to be reflective of rainfall and water level trends. A decrease in salinity has been observed within the 600 mm isohyet, whilst outside of this area, groundwater salinity increases are evident especially near the Auburn and Mintaro townships and in the Armagh and Stanley Flat sub catchments. The largest rises in salinity occur to the north east of Auburn (South Australian Government, a). Whilst application of imported River Murray water within the Clare Valley PWRA carries a risk of salinisation of groundwater, there does not appear to be any correlation between the observed rising salinity trends and application of this imported water (South Australian Government, a). Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 20 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

21 Baroota PWRA The Baroota PWRA was prescribed in 2008 due to concern about the ability of surface water runoff to supply the Baroota Reservoir, while protecting watercourses and dependent ecosystems through adequate watercourse flow (Northern and Yorke NRM Board, 2010). A water allocation plan will also address concerns about falling groundwater levels, increases in groundwater salinity and acknowledge the connectivity between groundwater and surface water (NY NRM Board, 2010). The water allocation plan for the Baroota PWRA is currently under development. Recent internal investigations by SA Water of inflows to the Baroota Reservoir over the last 20 years (to 2010) show a significant reduction in mean natural inflow to approximately 50% of the historical value. SA Water therefore estimated that the sustainable annual yield available from the Baroota Reservoir is 185 ML. The licensed water available for allocation from the groundwater resources of the Baroota PWRA will be determined during the development of the water allocation plan. Total metered extraction from the groundwater resources of the Baroota PWRA average approximately 1500 ML/a since 2002 (South Australian Government, b). Groundwater levels have declined by up to 10 m across the Baroota PWRA since 2002, and have reached their lowest levels recorded in over 30 years. Baroota Reservoir has contributed leakage to the groundwater system, but as the Reservoir is currently only used as a stand by water storage by SA Water and lower than usual rainfall and runoff has occurred since 2002, the contribution to the aquifer as a result of leakage has been reduced due to the lower water level maintained in the reservoir. Extractions are thought to have had only a minor impact on groundwater level trends (South Australian Government, b). Due to the substantial aquifer thickness (100 m), these water level reductions can be accommodated by the aquifer system over the coming decade, allowing sufficient time to develop the water allocation plan to manage the resources of the Baroota PWRA (South Australian Government, b). Despite the sustained fall in groundwater levels, a strong flow gradient from the ranges to the coast is still being maintained and there are no widespread increases in groundwater salinity levels. Under present conditions, it is unlikely that flow reversal from the west will occur that would cause rapid increases in salinity in the aquifer system. Non prescribed groundwater resources A number of shallow and deep groundwater aquifer systems are found in the region. Figure 8 shows the shallow groundwater resources across the Northern and Yorke region. Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 21 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

22 Figure 8: Shallow groundwater resources in the Northern and Yorke NRM Region Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 22 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

23 Booborowie Valley The sustainable yield from the groundwater resources of the Booborowie Valley is yet to be determined. There is no metering of extraction volumes, however estimated extractions have shown a significant decline from about 1200 ML/a in 1990 to about 300 ML/a in 2010 (South Australian Government, c). Groundwater levels respond to recharge in very wet years, but a prolonged period of below average rainfall has caused gradual water level declines in all aquifers. Groundwater salinity trends are variable, and may reflect long term changes in land use rather than impacts of groundwater extraction (South Australian Government, c). Walloway Basin The sustainable yield from the groundwater resources of the Walloway Basin is yet to be determined. The only significant extractions occur from the deep Tertiary confined aquifer for the Orroroo town water supply (South Australian Government, d). SA Water have historically distributed, on average over the last 5 years, 125 ML from this resource for the purposes of Orroroo s town water supply. Both groundwater levels and salinities in the Tertiary confined aquifer have been showing stable trends. Although salinity levels show stable trends, monitoring of the town water supply wells show salinities within a range of approximately 1750 mg/l and 2100 mg/l in 2010 (South Australian Government, d). Willochra Basin The estimated extraction limit from the Tertiary confined aquifer of the Willochra Basin is 1000 ML/a. Groundwater levels in both the shallow Quaternary and Tertiary confined aquifer have been showing a long term declining trend up until 2009, which was predominantly caused by reduced recharge due to a prolonged period of below average rainfall. Higher rainfall in 2009 and 2010 has resulted in a rise in water levels (South Australian Government, e). Groundwater salinity trends in both aquifers appear to be stable with no obvious trend, with the exception of rising salinity in some wells in the shallow aquifer on the margins of the low salinity areas that were previously recharged by streamflow (South Australian Government, e). Other non prescribed groundwater resources There are other non prescribed groundwater resources within the Northern and Yorke region, of which there are varying levels of knowledge. Table 5 below lists these groundwater resources, along with the estimated sustainable yield, estimated usage, expected salinity range and any further information (referred to as comments in the table). Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 23 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

24 Table 5: Summary of small groundwater basins in the Northern and Yorke NRM Region. Resource name Estimated sustainable yield (ML/yr) Estimated usage (ML/yr) Expected salinity range (mg/l) Comments Balaklava Unknown Unknown Salinity within 5 6 km of the Wakefield River is considerably lower than the surrounding area. Small resource, not sustainable for major use. Existing use is fairly low, but due to the small size of the resource it is potentially vulnerable to large scale overextraction. Carribie *Unknown Unknown Utilised for stock and domestic use only the soil capacity limits irrigation development. Significant volumes relative to the region of under utilised groundwater, susceptible to high water demand through development (Marion Bay and Corny Point). However, SA Water suggest that the estimated sustainable yield could be significantly lower than this. Shallow aquifer vulnerable to pollution. There is anecdotal evidence that the aquifer is also vulnerable to seawater intrusion. Para Wurlie Recent investigations by SA Water suggest that the safe yield is actually between ML/a. Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 24 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

25 Resource name Estimated sustainable yield (ML/yr) Estimated usage (ML/yr) Expected salinity range (mg/l) Comments * Town water supply usage only does not include stock and domestic use as no data is available. Shallow aquifer vulnerable to pollution. Requires protection as a town water supply. Quorn *178 *148 Unknown SA Water have the capacity to distribute 178 ML/a from this groundwater resource. In ML/a was the total volume extracted from SA Water s system. Note: Figures with an * are the volumes that SA Water recommend as the estimated safe yield) (Source: Deane & Magarey, 2004, and SA Water Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 25 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

26 Non prescribed surface water and watercourse water resources The Northern and Yorke NRM Region has four main river catchments Upper Light, Broughton and Wakefield in the Mid North, and Willochra in the uppermost part of the region. The most intensive use of surface water in the Broughton River catchment is in the Clare Valley and is managed through the water allocation planfor the Clare Valley PWRA. The most intensive use of surface water and watercourse water in the Wakefield River catchment is also in the Clare Valley and the upper reaches of this catchment is managed through the WAP for the Clare Valley PWRA (Northern and Yorke NRM Board, 2008). There are estimated to be over 8800 farm dams located within these four main river catchments, with a combined storage volume of around 22 GL. Dams of a storage volume greater than 5 ML are generally considered to be the minimum size capable of supporting higher water use activities such as irrigation. Across the Northern and Yorke region there are thought to be 705 dams above this threshold. These dams hold almost 47% of the total estimated storage, despite comprising only 8.2% of the total number of dams. The majority of these larger dams are found within the high rainfall zones of the region, notably within the Clare Valley PWRA, where rainfall and runoff is relatively reliable (Deane and Graves, 2008). SA Water manage three reservoirs in the Northern and Yorke region. The Baroota Reservoir (6.1 GL), Beetaloo Reservoir (3.7 GL) and Bundaleer Reservoir (6.4 GL) together have a combined capacity of 16.2 GL (Tonkin Consulting, 2005). The storage capacity of these reservoirs is, however, much greater than the sustainable yield that is considered appropriate to be taken from them. A study into these reservoirs identified that the sustainable yield from the Baroota, Beetaloo and Bundaleer reservoirs was 370 ML, 490 ML and 360 ML respectively. However, the study noted that in the last ten years (to 2005) natural inflows to all three reservoirs were significantly lower than during the previous twenty six years (Tonkin, 2005). In addition, recent internal investigations by SA Water of inflows to the Baroota Reservoir over the last 20 years (to 2010) show a further significant reduction in mean natural inflow to approximately 50% of the historical value. These reservoirs were among the earliest water supply infrastructure developed in the Northern and Yorke region and originally supplied extensive trunk main systems. In 1997 off takes from these reservoirs ceased due to SA Water s commitment to higher standards of drinking water quality, in line with the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines. These reservoirs now remain as stand by water supplies and part of SA Water s State Disaster and Emergency Management Plan. Lagoons are also a surface water feature of the Northern and Yorke NRM Region. The Yorke Peninsula has little drainage definition, with many surface water catchments terminating in landlocked lagoonal (saline wetland) features. Lagoons also occur elsewhere in the region where drainage is severely restricted. Freshwater wetlands occur mostly in the Mid North and Southern Flinders Ranges (Northern and Yorke NRM Board, 2008). Alternative water sources Alternative sources of water currently in use in the region include wastewater, stormwater and some desalinated water. Approximately 0.5% of the region s water supply is captured stormwater (urban run off). Local councils throughout the Northern and Yorke NRM region have well developed capacities for capturing and reusing stormwater for non drinking purposes. It is estimated that 202 ML/a of stormwater in the region is currently being reused, predominantly to irrigate public open spaces, golf courses, school ovals, bowling greens and tennis courts. Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 26 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

27 A range of factors may restrict any significant future increase in stormwater harvesting and reuse in the region, including: a lack of suitable surface and aquifer storage; low yields due to the low rainfall in parts of the region, which is expected to be further compounded by climate change; the high cost of infrastructure and hence water produced; and adhering to the regulatory and policy framework set out by the Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Plan and the water allocation plan for the Clare Valley PWRA. Anecdotal evidence suggests a large proportion of households in the Northern and Yorke NRM region have rainwater tanks plumbed into their homes for domestic use. For example, the District Council of Orroroo Carrieton believe 99% of the local community is now self sufficient with rainwater as a result of their successful Rainwater Tank Scheme. Treated wastewater reuse could contribute up to approximately 2% of the water supplies in the Northern and Yorke NRM region. Figure 9 shows that there is approximately 402 ML/a of treated wastewater available from SA Water Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTP) in Port Augusta for non drinking purposes. In ML was reused (SA Water). Use of treated wastewater from SA Water s Port Augusta WWTP has been limited because of the high salinity level of the water, but infrastructure upgrades currently underway will address this quality issue and enable increased reuse into the future. SA Water also has a WWTP in Port Pirie. However, at this stage no wastewater is reused from this WWTP due to the treated wastewater s high salinity level. Many councils across the Northern and Yorke NRM region manage Community Wastewater Management Schemes (CWMS). Figure 9 shows that approximately 650ML of treated wastewater is available from these schemes for non drinking purposes. It is estimated that in , 588 ML was reused. There may be additional wastewater available and reused in the region, however not all councils were able to provide data for inclusion in statement. The councils that contributed to the volume of 650ML of available treated wastewater include: District Council of Barunga West; Clare and Gilbert Valleys Council; District Council of Mount Remarkable; District Council of Orroroo Carrieton; Wakefield Regional Council; and District Council of Yorke Peninsula. The highest demand for wastewater reuse occurs during the warmer summer months, however wastewater availability is usually higher during the cooler winter months. Therefore, use of treated wastewater may increase if winter peak flow could feasibly be stored for reuse in the summer peak demand period. Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 27 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

28 Figure 9: Wastewater reuse from SA Water Wastewater Treatment Plants and Community Wastewater Management Schemes The District Council of Yorke Peninsula owns and operates a desalination plant at Marion Bay. This desalination plant has the capacity to generate 20 ML/a of desalinated water, of which 5.5 ML was used for various purposes within the township in Figure 10: Marion Bay desalination plant Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 28 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

29 PART 3: FUTURE DEMAND AND SUPPLY DEMANDS Key issues with the potential to influence future demand for water in the Northern and Yorke region include: population growth; livestock demand; viticulture demand; and mining demand. Population growth The State Government has developed population projections for South Australian Statistical Divisions from 2006 to The Northern and Yorke NRM region crosses over two of these Statistical Divisions, the Yorke and Lower North Statistical Division and the Northern Statistical Division. The projected average annual growth rate for the Yorke and Lower North Statistical Division ranges from 0.3% per year (low projection) and 0.8% per year (high projection), between 2006 and 2036 (see figure 11). The projected average annual growth rate for the Northern Statistical Division ranges from 0.27% per year (low projection) and 0.66% per year (high projection), between 2006 and 2036 (see figure 12) (South Australian Government, 2010). Figure 11: Projected population for the Yorke and Lower North Statistical Division (South Australian Government, 2010) Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 29 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

30 Figure 12: Projected population for the Northern Statistical Division (South Australian Government, 2010) Although the projected population growth rate varies across the Northern and Yorke NRM region, the demand supply projections developed in this statement use the population projections of the Yorke and Lower North Statistical Division to account for the highest possible demand due to population growth. Due to the difference between the low population projection and the high population projection, the demand supply balance in this statement is projected under both scenarios. The population projections in the Northern Statistical Division assume major population growth at Roxby Downs due to the planned Olympic Dam expansion (South Australian Government, 2010), however this falls outside the Northern and Yorke NRM Region considered by this statement. The major population growth within the Yorke and Lower North Statistical Division is projected to be due to gains from retirement migration (South Australian Government, 2010). Livestock demand Livestock is a major industry in the Northern and Yorke NRM region. In there were 6,660 dairy cattle, 67,184 meat cattle and 2,669,661 sheep (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2010). Livestock water use is highest in the summer months and varies depending on the type of feed. As advised by Primary Industries and Resources South Australia, for the purposes of this statement it was estimated that 10 L per day is required per each dry sheep equivalent. This daily water use includes an allowance for on farm losses. It is anticipated that demand from the livestock industry will increase by 1.5% per annum for the next 10 years and then remain constant. Viticulture demand Despite the wine industry experiencing its worst conditions in 25 years and being 6 years into an oversupply that shows no signs of easing (Hackworth, 2011), the viticulture industry in the Clare Valley is expected to continue to maintain its current demand on water resources. The harvest from the Clare Valley was 21,675 tonnes in The estimated production from the Clare Valley for 2011 is 27,000 tonnes and by 2015 the estimated production is expected to remain steady at just over 27,000 tonnes (Phylloxera and Grape Industry Board of South Australia, 2010). Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement 30 DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

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