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1 COMUNICATO STAMPA Twice Research si attende per MC-link un costante miglioramento dei risultati economici e finanziari fino al 2015 Cresce l attesa per le decisioni di AGCOM su tariffe Telecom 8 Ottobre 2013 Esistono i presupposti per una netta crescita del valore delle azioni MC-link, società di telecomunicazioni che fornisce al mercato business servizi dati, telefonia, internet, data center e quotata in Borsa al listino AIM dallo scorso 22 febbraio. Da uno studio di Twice Research, società di analisi finanziaria indipendente, realizzato anche sulla base dei dati della Semestrale, emerge che il titolo è stato sottoscritto in collocamento in febbraio a 7,65 euro, le ultime quotazioni in ottobre erano di poco superiore ai 7 euro e lo Share Price atteso per il 2014 è di 9,2 euro (quindi una crescita di circa il 30% rispetto a ottobre 2013) e di 10,1 euro nel 2015 (+40% circa su ottobre 2013). L analisi di Twice si fonda sulla proiezione triennale di cash flow e terminal value usando la metodologia SGAP, Twice s Sustainable Growth Adjusted P/E. L attuale fair value è stato valutato in 8,45 euro per azione. Con la Semestrale MC-link ha confermato gli obiettivi 2013: ricavi a 37,2 milioni di euro e Ebitda di 7 milioni. Ora le stime di Twice per gli anni successivi indicano un costante sviluppo del valore della produzione (39 milioni di euro nel 2014 e 41,4 nel 2015) che si riflette su Ebitda (7,7 milioni di euro nel 2014, 8,3 nel 2015). Questo scenario conduce all attesa di una discesa del P/E (46,3 nel 2013, 36,8 nel 2014 e 26,1 nel 2014). Proiezioni positive che sovrastano le ombre che si allungano sul mercato: presenza di forti concorrenti, incertezza sulle scelte future di chi regolamenta il mercato, il persistere di una congiuntura economica negativa. MC-link è finora cresciuta in modo regolare e Twice individua alcuni punti forza che lo hanno reso possibile: focalizzazione su mercato business, clienti con accordi pluriennali, proprietà di infrastrutture di rete, relazioni consolidate con i clienti, competenze e know how nel mondo delle telecomunicazioni. MC-link è inoltre in attesa di conoscere se AGCOM (Autorità per le garanzie nelle comunicazioni) confermerà, sia pure parzialmente, la decisione di ridurre significativamente i prezzi che Telecom Italia deve applicare da Gennaio 2013 ai propri concorrenti per i servizi di accesso in unbundling e bitstream. La scelta di ridurre i prezzi praticati da Telecom generebbe un ulteriore beneficio al conto economico 2013 di MC-link.

2 Twice Research S.r.l. Twice Research S.r.l. è una società di analisi finanziaria indipendente e corporate broking con focus sulle small&mid cap italiane. L attività di ricerca azionaria, avviata nel 2007, è stata oggetto di potenziamento e rinnovamento nei primi mesi del Twice Research si pone al fianco della direzione finanziaria societaria e realizza studi e valutazioni periodiche a fini interni e/o destinati alla circolazione verso il pubblico -, in lingua inglese, diffuse attraverso le principali piattaforme domestiche e mondiali (Borsa Italiana, Factset, AIFO, Bloomberg, etc.). Le caratteristiche del proprio team di ricerca e il network di relazioni dei propri partner hanno portato Twice Research ad avere un rapporto privilegiato con investitori privati, family office, business angels particolarmente attenti alle possibilità di investimento in small&mid cap. Twice's Sustainable Growth Adjusted P/E (SGAP) è il metodo di valutazione utilizzato da Twice Research per la valutazione del small & mid cap. La valutazione è condotta nell'ottica dell'investitore di minoranza il cui ritorno economico dipende dai dividendi pagati dalla società e dall'apprezzamento della quotazione del titolo. Il business plan triennale fornito dalla società è assunto come dato di partenza e un algoritmo apposito calcola il P/E sostenibile rispetto ai risultati attesi del piano. Tale multiplo viene applicato per il calcolo dell'equity value. Poiché il P/E sostenibile dipende dalla capacità dell'azienda di realizzare il piano, il fair value cambia negli anni mostrando quello che dovrebbe essere il trend triennale del titolo. Per ulteriori informazioni: Emittente Ufficio Stampa Nomad MC-link S.p.A. Via Carlo Perrier 9/A, Roma Marco Di Gioacchino (Investor Relations) Tel: Cell: Carl Byoir & Ass. Via Paolo Lomazzo 19, Milano Andrea Barbieri Tel: Cell: Integrae SIM S.p.A. Via Meravigli 13, Milano Luca Di Liddo Tel: Cell: In allegato: - Report Twice Research su MC-link Pag. 2 di 2

3 MC-link (MCK.IM) Sector: TLC Initial coverage: a new interesting player on the AIM market October 8 th, 2013 Investment summary MC-link is a telecommunications operator, whose mission is to provide high quality network services, including Virtual Private Networks, telephony, broadband internet connectivity, and data center services, including Public and Private clouds, hosting and colocation. MC-link s activity is mainly addressed to business customers, with a special focus on small-medium companies and larger enterprises, with a mix of standardized and Managed Services. MC-link is listed on the Italian Stock Exchange, AIM Italia market, since February The IPO price was 7.65 per share, the shares of new issue were and the capital raised equaled to 2.6M. Last results At June 30 th, 2013 MC-link s revenues increased by 9.9% yoy (18.3M in 1H13 vs. 16.6M in 1H12). The revenues coming from active monthly recurring charges exceeded 15M, even thanks to the Managed Services which increased by 83.4% from 1.9M to 3.6M. The EBITDA strongly increased by 30.7% and amounted to 3.6M, yielding a 19.6% EBITDA margin and the EBIT amounted to 1.3M. The net result was positive for 0.3M. MC-link s net financial position at June 30 th, 2013 amounted to 13.2M, after capex equal to 2.6M. Valuation We believe that MC-link s business model, characterized by a strong orientation to technological innovation and the ambition to enhance the Managed Services segment, which ensure multi-year contracts, will drive the company to fulfill its strategic and economic objectives. Company valuation is based on detailed 3-year cash flow projections and TV computed using SGA P/E. The model returns a fair value of 8.45 per share. Risks MC-link competes with large national players. Uncertainty in the NGN Network regulation. Long lasting negative macro-economic scenario. Forecast 12A 13E 14E 15E Sales ( M) EBITDA ( M) EPS ( ) Valuation 12A 13E 14E 15E SHARE PRICE EV/EBITDA P/E Dividend yield 1.9% 2.4% 3.5% ROCE after tax 3.0% 6.1% 8.0% 9.9% Key Data Price ( ) 6.96 Market cap ( M) 22.5 Equity Value ( M) 27.3 Fair Value ( ) 8.45 P/E LTM Twice Research Srl Mail: n.a. P/E TTM (since IPO) 50.3 Investment Profile Stock data Bloomberg Ticker from 1 worst to 5 best MCK.IM N of shares (M) 3.2 Free float 10.1% Main shareholder Paolo Nuti (23.6%) Daily trading volume ,000 shares 22/02/13 08/03/13 22/03/13 05/04/13 19/04/13 03/05/13 17/05/13 31/05/13 14/06/13 28/06/13 12/07/13 26/07/13 09/08/13 23/08/13 06/09/13 20/09/13 04/10/13 MCK FtseMib Share Price perf (%) 1M 3M IPO Absolute 20.0% -3.7% -18.1% Rel. to FtseMIB 11.9% -20.4% -33.1% Twice Research S.r.l. - via San Vittore al Teatro Milano P.IVA: numero R.E.A.: Capitale sociale:

4 Investment case MC-link is a telecommunications operator, whose mission is to provide high quality network services, including Virtual Private Networks, telephony, broadband internet connectivity, and data center services, including Public and Private clouds, hosting and colocation. MC-link s activity is mainly addressed to business customers, with a special focus on small-medium companies and larger enterprises, with a mix of standardized and Managed Services. The Company was born as an Internet Service Provider (ISP), in 2009 it evolved from simple ISP to TLC operator thanks to the merger with Alpikom, a Trentino telecom operator. Thanks to the merger the business enlarged, in addition to standardized connectivity services, Managed Services designed for the specific requirements of corporate clients were introduced. MC-link s vision is based on the conviction that services for the network access are the driver for the sale of all TLC services (included Data Center), thus the Company vision is: who controls the access, controls services. Understanding the right moment in which to switch from the use of services acquired from third parties to the construction of proprietary infrastructures is fundamental in order to avoid the extremely high costs fixed assets MC-link has been successful in this transition. It used third party services in the phase of customer base development and then invested in infrastructures capable of providing better services to its clients increasing marginality, quality and network control. Chart: Italian proprietary infrastructure (Milan, Rome, Monza, Trento, Rovereto, Parma) Sources: Company data, Twice Research In 2012 MC-link invested in infrastructure and production structure in order to expand its production capacity, consequently in 2012 company profitability was penalized by the growing operating costs, but now the Company is ready for the dimensional growth thus benefiting from the profitability increase. 2

5 MC-link is listed on the Italian Stock Exchange, AIM Italia market, since February With proceeds of the IPO the Company aims to grow through acquisitions given that: - the market of small TLC operators is entering a consolidation phase - MC-link has an organizational structure and a market positioning which makes it the ideal leader of the aggregation process. Valuation: We valued the Company based on three year cash flow projections and terminal value computed using Twice s Sustainable Growth Adjusted P/E ( SGAP ) methodology. We initiate the coverage with a fair value equals to If MCK will be able to fulfill the business plan presented at the IPO, increasing turnover - especially recurrent revenues -. recovering profitability and carrying out some M&A transactions, the company share price will reflect the increase in value. Risks MC-link s business is exposed to markets whose demand is mainly driven by general level of consumption and investment, both of which are heavily impacted by the current economic slowdown. MC-link competes with much larger operators whose spending power (i.e. for capex and marketing) is greater. Table: SWOT analysis Strengths - Recurrent revenues scheme - Propriety Network Infrastructure - Long lasting clients relationship - Thorough knowledge and know-how of the management in the TLC market Opportunities - Managed services required even by Italian small & mid cap Weaknesses - Exposure to a market with low growth rate - High fixed asset investments required Threats - Large dimension of competitors - Italian delay in Optical Fibre diffusion - Long lasting economic slowdown Source: Twice Research. 3

6 Business Description MC-link is a telecommunications operator, whose mission is to provide high quality network services, including Virtual Private Networks, telephony, broadband internet connectivity, and data center services, including Public and Private clouds, hosting and colocation. MC-link s activity is mainly addressed to business customers, with a special focus on small-medium companies and larger enterprises, with a mix of standardized and Managed Services. In the latest years the Italian TLC market is decreasing, in 2011 the total turnover equaled 40.4B (-3.4% yoy), the fixed network revenues amounted to 18.2B and the mobile network revenues amounted 22.2B. MC-link has a market share equal to approximately 1% of the business segment of the fixed network. MC-link revenues CAGR is equal to 8.8%, the Company aimed to increase the recurrent lease revenues part. Chart: Revenues growth ,0 3,8 30,0 25,0 1,9 2,3 2,6 2,3 2,1 20,0 15,0 25,3 26,7 29,1 Other revenues Traffic revenues Fee revenues 10,0 5,0 0,0 FY10 FY11 FY12 Sources: Company data, Twice Research Since 1999, the turnover, gross profit and EBITDA trend was the following: Migliaia Revenues Gross margin EBITDA F (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) Sources: Company data. 4

7 The group s activity is divided into three areas of business: Packaged services (range of connectivity offers of broadband and telephony, personalized services addresses to business clients). Managed services (this is the new business segment in which MC-link is focusing its growing activity; they are a group of services, including Virtual Private Networks and Private Clouds designed specifically for larger enterprises). Data Centers (the services offered by MC-link s data centers include colocation, hosting, public and private clouds, streaming, disaster recovery and unified communication). At December 31 st 2012 the Company reached a total turnover equal to 35M, the majority of revenues derived from lease services, 29.1M. Chart: Revenues breakdown at December 31 st 2012 Webfarm services 8% Other internet services 4% RUPAR Puglia 1% Managed services 16% Packaged services 71% Sources: Company data, Twice Research The current MC-link client portfolio counts corporate clients. MC-link employed 135 people at December 31 st 2012 with operating locations in Rome. Milan and Trento. The clients portfolio counts among the most important customers the following companies. 5

8 Short history: 1986: Establishment of BBS MC-link, which was an online magazine, published with the monthly magazine leader in the sector MC microcomputer. 1992: MC-link offers to its BBS users the first commercially available service and in 1994 full access to the internet. 1999: The new company MC-link Spa acquires from Technimedia the company branch MC-link In January MC-link starts to offer the first broadband solutions in ADSL for Business customers 2001: Establishment of Alpikom Spa which obtains a license as telecom operator released by the Communication Minister. 2005: MC-link builds its proprietary access network infrastructure in Rome and Alpikom completes the WEB FABRIK (Trento data center). 2007: MC-link expands its access network to Milan and Monza. 2009: Alpikom is merged with MC-link, the historical shareholders of Alpikom (Dolomiti Energia SpA, Dedagroup SpA, Autostrada del Brennero SpA and Azienda Energetica SpA) become shareholders of MC-link. 2011: MC-link begins to offer Managed Services (vertical solutions VPN-MPLS and Data Center) including the connection of the clients headquarters with optical fibre. 2012: The network infrastructure is upgraded to Carrier Ethernet technology, the Data Center in Milan is expanded and a second Data Center is completed in Rome, the, Managed Services Business is consolidated. February 2013: MC-link lists on Italian Stock Exchange, AIM segment. 6

9 Key Strategic Assumption The aim of MC-link s business model is the creation of a sound and growing customer base with monthly recurring charges. In order to reach its objectives MC-link has invested heavily in cutting edge technological infrastructures, motivated salesforce and highly skilled employees in all areas of design and planning, customer operations, delivery, handling and post-sale support. Infrastructures Recurring Planning: The planning departments (Network and Systems) supervise the technological update both with regards to the network infrastructure and the design and implementation of new services. Distribution network: the first contact with the client happens through two different channels: direct sales (also on line) and indirect sales. 30% of contracts are sold through direct sales; 7 key account managers offer high value solutions to the Executive market. 70% of contracts are sold through an indirect sales channel comprised of more than 900 partners covering the whole domestic territory. These partners are mainly system integrators, ICT professionals and IT resellers; MC-link offers them constant training through commercial and technical workshops. The online sales are steadily increasing, for some products and services the client can complete the purchase only through the website. Delivery: the delivery of standard services is largely computerized, the delivery of the Managed Services is supervised by Project Management. Handling: the NOC (Network Operations Center) monitors Network and Data Center activity pro-actively 24 hours a day. Customer care: post sale support is offered through a Technical Help Desk skilled to provide first and second level of phone assistance. The key factors of Company activities are: The procurement of one of the most complete offers thanks to continuous innovation and investment in infrastructure. The capability to design customized solutions for the client. A large range of broadband solutions. An extremely qualified and efficient customer service. 7

10 Corporate profile Shareholders: concentrated The major shareholders are Paolo Nuti, with 23.6% and Bo Arnklit with 22.8% of the total shares. Dedagroup Spa detains 15.2% of the shares, Melior Trust Spa another 9.7% and other smaller shareholders own overall 18.7% shares. Finally, by difference, the free float is 10% of the total shares. Chart: shareholders structure Other shareholders (<5%) 4% Free float 10% Paolo Nuti 23% Silvano Fraticelli 7% Giovanni Falcone 8% Melior Trust Spa 10% Bo Arnklit 23% Dedagroup Spa 15% Sources: Company data. Twice Research Management: expert Paolo Nuti, with a long experience in the digital-telecom sector, is the chairman of the BoD, Bo Arnklit and Pompeo Viganò are vice-presidents. Cesare Veneziani is the CEO of the Board since 2001; he was before Marketing director of the branch MC-link of Technimedia S.r.l. and then Commercial Director and member of the BoD of MC-link S.p.A. Since 2000 he is also General Manager of MC-link S.p.A. Disclosure: fair The management constantly communicates to the market every relevant fact regarding the company. Corporate governance: fair The Board of Directors is composed by 9 members, two of whom is independent. Financial Communication: effective MCK has promptly activated an effective investor relations channel. The company aims to supply constant and transparent communication with the financial market; the management is available for meetings with the financial community. 8

11 Auditors Deloitte & Touche Spa audits MCK accounts. Share Price MCK is listed on the AIM Italia segment since February Chart: MCK share price since listing /02/13 08/03/13 22/03/13 05/04/13 19/04/13 03/05/13 17/05/13 31/05/13 14/06/13 MCK 28/06/13 12/07/13 26/07/13 09/08/13 FtseMi b 23/08/13 06/09/13 20/09/13 04/10/13 Source: Twice Research. Liquidity: in growth. The current share price (as of 8 October 2013) is 6.96 per share and thus the market capitalization is 22.5M. The average volume exchanged during the last three months equaled around 2,000 shares per day. At this pace nearly 15% of the capital is exchanged during a year (there are a total of 3.2M shares). 9

12 Latest results (1H13) In the first half 2013 Company results are in line with the business plan presented for the listing, the total revenues increased 9.9% yoy; in terms of margins start to emerge the positive effects of investments made in previous years, EBITDA margin increased significantly. The total revenues amounted to 18.3M, the year before it was equal to 16.6M. The increase is due to the tightness of the traditional lines of business and the development of the new business lines: the revenues from monthly recurring charges, which represent 83.4% of total revenues, amounted to 15.2M, +7.5% yoy, whereas the revenues from traffic decreased to 1M, -9.4% yoy. The gross profit increased in absolute value up to 10.7M (+9.8% yoy), the gross margin was in line with the previous year, thanks to the entry into operation of the new lines of business. The EBITDA increased significantly up to 3.6M (+30.7% yoy) and also the EBITDA margin, which passed from 16.5% of 1H12 to 19.6% of 1H13, which is the result, on the one hand, of growth in absolute gross margin and, secondly, of bedding cost structure that, in 2011 and 2012, increased in order to insert the necessary resources for the development of Business Plan. The EBT equalled to 0.8M, in contraction if compared to 1H12 which was positive influenced by the extraordinary items linked to fiscal management. Table: MCK s results (M ) M 1H13 1H12 % var Total Revenues % Gross Profit % Gross margin 58.7% 58.8% Ebitda % Ebitda margin 19.6% 16.5% Ebit % Ebit margin 7.2% 3% Net result % Table: MCK s revenues breakdown (M ) M 1H13 1H12 % var Fee revenues % Traffic revenues % Other revenues % Total revenues % Table: MCK s costs breakdown (M ) M 1H13 1H12 % var Direct production costs for recurring revenues % Direct production costs for one-off revenues % Costs of production infrastructure % Indirect production costs % Total production costs % 10

13 FINANCIALS Income statement ( M) 12A 13E 14E 15E Balance sheet ( M) 12A 13E 14E 15E Sales COGS FIXED ASSETS Gross Profit Net Working Capital EBITDA CAPITAL EMPLOYED Depreciation, Amortization EBIT EQUITY Net Financial Results MINORITY INTEREST Income tax PROVISIONS Net result PENSIONS (e.g. TFR) NET DEBT EPS ( ) CAPITAL INVESTED DPS ( ) Margin (%) 12A 13E 14E 15E Ratios 12A 13E 14E 15E Gross Margin 59.4% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% ROCE after tax 3.0% 6.1% 8.0% 9.9% EBITDA Margin 17.4% 18.9% 19.6% 20.1% ROE 10.4% 10.9% 18.0% 26.9% EBIT Margin 2.5% 5.4% 6.8% 8.1% Capital Turnover Net Margin 1.3% 1.3% 2.1% 3.0% Net Debt / EBITDA Gearing n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. Growth (%) 12A 13E 14E 15E WC / Sales 0.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% Sales growth 10.7% 6.1% 5.0% 6.2% Amortization / Sales 14.9% 13.5% 12.8% 12.1% EBITDA growth 1.5% 14.9% 9.5% 8.8% Capex / Sales 17.9% 13.5% 12.8% 12.1% EBIT growth -41.2% 125.4% 33.1% 25.4% EPS growth n.a. n.a. 67.4% 54.1% Net growth 113.1% 6.5% 67.4% 54.1% PEG n.a. n.a Cash Flow statement ( M) 12A 13E 14E 15E Valuation 12A 13E 14E 15E Cash Flow EV/Sales /- Var. Working Capital EV/EBITDA Operating Cash Flow EV/EBIT Op. Cash Flow / Sales 23.6% 9.8% 14.2% 14.3% P/E n.m Capex P/B n.m FCF EV/CE FCF / Sales 5.7% -3.6% 1.3% 2.2% P/FCF n.m. n.m FCF Yield -6.0% 1.8% 2.8% Stock data 12A 13E 14E 15E Dividend yield 1.9% 2.4% 3.5% Number of Shares (M) Avg share price over LTM ( ) Market cap ( M) n.a Sources: Company data, Twice Research estimates 11

14 Valuation We valued the Company based on three-year Cash Flow projections and Terminal Value computed using Twice s Sustainable Growth Adjusted P/E ( SGAP ) methodology. The model points out a 8.45 fair value. We made the following assumptions: Sales will increase 6.1% in 2013 up to 37.2M. Over the period the CAGR is equal to 5.6% in line with the business plan presented by the company at the IPO; the EBITDA margin will grow constantly during the three year period up to 20.1% in 2015 and the EBIT will reach 3.4M ; the Capex is estimated on average equal to 5.0M per year; the ratio WC/sales is estimated on average equal to 5.5% in the three year plan; the WC absorption is due to the turnover growth; the NFP will increase slightly after the payment of dividends for a total amount of 2.1M in the next three years. Cash Flow FY13 FY14 FY15 Sales Sales growth 6.1% 5.0% 6.2% EBIT Margin 5.4% 6.8% 8.1% Taxes Tax rate -33.0% -33.0% -33.0% Net Results Depreciation % of sales 13.5% 12.8% 12.1% Capex % of sales -13.5% -12.8% -12.1% Var. Working Capital Dividends Free Cash Flow after dividends NET RESULT SGA PE 26.6 TV actualized 25.5 Dividends 1.9 Equity value ( M) 27.3 Number of Shares (M) 3.2 Equity value per share ( ) 8.45 Upside 21.4% Sensitivity analysis RISK PREMIUM Net Result CAGR % 18.0% 40.1% 48.7% 63.6% 0.4% % % % %

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