The Second Generation Model: Data, Parameters, and Implementation

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1 PNNL The Second Generaton Model: Data, Parameters, and Implementaton Ronald D. Sands 1 Allen A. Fawcett 2 October 2005 Prepared for the Unted States Envronmental Protecton Agency under Contracts AGRDW and AGRDW Jont Global Change Research Insttute, College Park, MD Pacfc Northwest Natonal Laboratory Operated by Battelle for the US Department of Energy 1 Jont Global Change Research Insttute, Pacfc Northwest Natonal Laboratory, Battelle, Unversty of Maryland, 8400 Baltmore Avenue, Sute 201, College Park, MD 20740, USA 2 U.S. Envronmental Protecton Agency, 1200 Pennsylvana Ave. NW (6207J), Washngton, DC 20460, USA. The vews of the authors do not necessarly represent the vews of the U.S. Government or the Envronmental Protecton Agency.

2 LEGAL NOTICE Ths report was prepared by Battelle Memoral Insttute (Batelle) as an account of sponsored research actvtes. Nether Clent nor Battelle nor any person actng on behalf of ether: MAKES ANY WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, wth respect to the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of the nformaton contaned n ths report, or that the use of any nformaton, apparatus, product, or composton dsclosed n ths report may not nfrnge prvately owned rghts; or Assumes any labltes wth respect to the use of, or for damages resultng from the use of, any nformaton, apparatus, process, or composton dsclosed n ths report. Reference heren to any specfc commercal product, process, or servce by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwse, does not necessarly consttute or mply ts endorsement, recommendaton, or favorng by Battelle. The vews and opnons of authors expressed heren do not necessarly state or reflect those of Battelle. 2

3 I. Introducton Ths document provdes a descrpton of the data, calbraton procedures, behavoral parameters, and other parameters needed to populate the Second Generaton Model (SGM) as of 1 October It s one of a par of documents. The other document s a theoretcal model descrpton of the SGM (Fawcett and Sands, 2005), whch descrbes the status of the SGM as t exsts on 1 October The theoretcal descrpton of the SGM should be read frst as we assume that the reader s famlar wth Fawcett and Sands. Development of data for the Second Generaton Model began n A model base year of 1985 was selected and ntal efforts focused on SGM-USA. To model nternatonal trade n carbon emssons rghts, global coverage was needed. The world was then parttoned nto 13 regons for data collecton: some regons are ndvdual countres whle others are collectons of countres. To populate a computable general equlbrum (CGE) model for all SGM regons, the PNNL modelng group organzed a team of nternatonal collaborators that could provde local nputoutput tables, energy balances, natonal ncome accounts, data on hstorcal nvestment, and local knowledge of nsttutons and markets. It was not possble to create collaboratons for all SGM regons, but nne of the ten largest carbon-emttng countres ncludng both developed and developng countres, accountng for 75 percent of fossl fuel carbon emssons, were developed n collaboraton wth nternatonal nsttutons. At the tme, nothng exsted smlar to the global data sets presently provded by the Global Trade Analyss Project (GTAP). Durng the 1990s, two major nnovatons were ncorporated nto SGM. The frst was a revson of the benchmark nput-output table to provde full consstency wth energy balances. Carbon doxde emssons are ted closely to energy combuston, but the economc nput-output tables dd not provde suffcent nformaton on energy quanttes. The second nnovaton was to allow old vntages of the captal stock to have a lower elastcty of techncal substtuton than new captal: ths provdes a lagged response to a carbon polcy consstent wth the tme requred for turnover of captal stocks. Around the year 2000, the SGM base year was changed from 1985 to Some SGM regons were completely rebult wth the new base year and an ncreased number of producton sectors; some SGM regons were partally rebult, usng scaled nput-output data from the prevous verson. The remander of ths document s dvded nto four sectons whch dscuss the data employed to calbrate the model to reproduce a specfc base year, the calbraton process for transformng data nto model parameters, parameters that govern behavoral responses to changes n the model, and addtonal nformaton that s needed to create and run a model scenaro. The next secton, Secton II, provdes a descrpton of the data used for base-year calbraton, ncludng nputoutput tables, energy balances, and natonal accounts. Secton III descrbes procedures for combnng data sets for nput to SGM. Secton IV descrbes the behavoral parameters that determned model response to changes n relatve prces. Secton V descrbes other elements of model operaton and mplementaton such as populaton projectons, techncal change over tme, treatment of nternatonal trade, and smulaton of a clmate polcy. In addton, three appendces descrbe the relatonshp between SGM regons and geopoltcal regons, background on make and use tables, and the constructon of a commodty-by-commodty hybrd nput-output table for SGM-USA. 3

4 II. Base-Year Data The 13 SGM regons wth a base year of 1990 can be organzed nto three types accordng to ther hstory of data development: (1) regons that are based on 1990 nput-output data and have 15 to 21 producton sectors; (2) regons that use scaled nput-output data from a 1985 base year and have 7 or 8 producton sectors; (3) mnmal models for the remanng regons have 7 or 8 producton sectors, but nput-output tables are not avalable. All regons use 1990 energy balances, ether from the Internatonal Energy Agency (IEA) or from local sources. Table 2.1 summarzes characterstcs of the 13 SGM regons. Table 2.1. Characterstcs of SGM regons wth 1990 base year. Regon number of producton sectors type of constructon source of energy data energy sectors year of nputoutput table USA (USA) 21 rebult 1990 EIA/DOE and 1992 Canada (CAN) 8 scaled 1985 IEA W. Europe (WEU) 8 scaled 1980 IEA Japan (JPN) 17 rebult 1990 JIEE Australa/NZ (ANZ) 8 scaled 1985 IEA former Sovet Unon (FSU) 8 scaled 1985 IEA E. Europe (EEU) 8 mnmal IEA 6 hybrd Chna (CHN) 15 rebult 1990 ERI Inda (IND) 18 rebult 1990 TERI /1990 Mexco (MEX) 7 scaled 1985 IEA S. Korea (KOR) 17 rebult 1990 KEEI Mddle East (MDE) 7 mnmal IEA 5 hybrd Rest of World (ROW) 7 mnmal IEA 5 hybrd Notes: Insttutons provdng energy data nclude: Energy Informaton Admnstraton/U.S. Department of Energy (EIA/DOE); Internatonal Energy Agency (IEA); Japan Insttute of Energy Economcs (JIEE); Energy Research Insttute (ERI) of Chna; Tata Energy Research Insttute (TERI) of Inda; Korea Energy Economcs Insttute (KEEI). Input-output tables were not avalable for the Eastern Europe, Mddle East, and Rest of World regons; a hybrd nput-output table was constructed for each regon usng IEA energy balances and natonal accounts data from the Unted Natons Statstcal Yearbook. The major types of data needed for each SGM regon nclude: economc nput-output tables, energy balance tables, supplemental data on energy consumpton, natonal ncome accounts, and hstorcal nvestment by producton sector. Energy balance tables mght not provde enough nformaton on energy consumpton n energy-ntensve ndustres or on transportaton, so other sources of data on energy consumpton are used for SGM regons wth an extended set of producton sectors. Table 2.2 shows whch producton sectors are present n each SGM regon. 4

5 Table 2.2. Producton sector representaton n SGM regonal modules Producton Sector USA CAN WEU JPN ANZ FSU EEU CHN IND MEX KOR MDE ROW Crude Ol Producton X X X X X X X X X X X X Natural Gas Producton X X X X X X X X X X X X Coal Producton X X X X X X X X X X X X X Coal Products X X X Electrcty Generaton X X X X X X X X X X X X X Petroleum Refnng X X X X X X X X X X X X X Natural Gas Dstrbuton X X X X X X X X X Prmary Agrculture X X X X X X X X X X X Grans X X Anmal Products X X Forest Products X X Other Agrculture X X Food Processng X X X Paper and Pulp X X X X X Chemcals X X X X X Cement, Stone, Clay, Glass X X X X X Iron and Steel X X X X X Nonferrous Metals X X X X Other Industry X X X Durable Manufacturng X Other Manufacturng X Transportaton Passenger Transport X X X X Freght Transport X X X X Ral Transport X Non-ral transport X Everythng Else X X X X X X X X X X X X X Socal Accountng Matrx as an Organzng Tool A convenent way to organze data for a CGE model s wth a socal accountng matrx (SAM). The three major components of a SAM are a use table (or nput table), a make table (or output table) and the natonal accounts. See Appendx B for background on use and make tables and the varous ways they can be combned nto an nput-output table. Input-Output Table An nput-output table can be constructed n ether values or quanttes. Tables publshed by government statstcal agences are n values. However, f all agents pay the same prce for an nput to producton and we know these prces, then quantty nformaton can be recovered. Conversely, f an nput-output table s n terms of quanttes, we can recover the value table by multplyng each row through by ts prce. The general structure of an nput-output table s dsplayed n Fgure 2.1. Each row of the nputoutput table represents an nput to producton, ether an ntermedate nput or a prmary factor, and each column represents an actvty that uses nputs. An nput-output table s usually structured to have the same number of producton actvtes as ntermedate nputs, so that the ntermedate flows matrx s square. 5

6 The fnal demand porton of the nput-output table ncludes columns for personal consumpton C, nvestment I, government consumpton G, exports X, and mports M. Imports are entered as negatve values so that the row sum for any commodty across ntermedate uses and fnal demand s equal to total producton. If the nput-output table s n value terms, then row sums are the total value of producton and column sums for any producton actvty are the total cost of producton. Therefore, a test for consstency s that row sums equal column sums for each commodty, or that the value of producton equals the cost of producton Makers of commodtes fnal demand Commodtes Makers of commodty j Ammount of commodty used by used by makers of commodty j < Commodty C I G X M Total output of commodty Value added K L IBT Value added sold drectly to fnal demand Tot. val. add. Total cost for makers of commodty j Natonal Accounts Fgure 2.1. General structure of a commodty-by-commodty nput-output table Instead of drectly usng nput-output tables as publshed by government agences, we construct specalzed tables for use n energy and clmate polcy analyss that are hybrds of nput-output tables and energy balances. Detals of buldng a hybrd table are provded n Secton III. The man objectve of usng hybrd nput-output tables s to mantan full consstency wth energy balances. 6

7 Natonal Accounts Natonal accounts for a country can be compactly dsplayed n a condensed SAM, where the dmensons of accounts for actvtes, commodtes, and prmary factors are reduced to one by aggregaton. Even though the structure of an nput-output table s farly standard across CGE models, the representaton of natonal accounts vares wdely, both n terms of the number of accounts and the detal wthn each account. A condensed SAM showng the structure of natonal accounts n SGM s dsplayed n Table 2.3. Table 2.3. Condensed socal accountng matrx for SGM. Entres n bold are derved drectly from an nput-output table. actvtes actvtes commodtes prmary factors enterprses households government captal rest of world GROSS_OUTPUT commodtes INTERMEDIATE_INPUTS PCONS GCONS INVEST EXPORTS prmary factors VALUE_ADDED enterprses OVA households LABOR DIVIDENDS GTR government IBT CIT PIT+SSTAX captal RE PSAV GSAV NET_BORROWING rest of world IMPORTS where PCONS = personal consumpton GCONS = government consumpton INVEST = gross fxed captal formaton EXPORTS = total value of exports IMPORTS = total value of mports NET_BORROWING = - trade balance DIVIDENDS = ncome from nvestment CIT = corporate ncome taxes RE = retaned earnngs (corporate savngs) PIT = personal ncome taxes SSTAX = socal securty taxes PSAV = personal savngs LABOR = labor ncome GTR = government transfers to households IBT = ndrect busness taxes GSAV = government savngs OVA = other value added (payments to owners of captal) Many of the elements of a condensed SAM can be derved drectly from the nput-output table. Other elements, especally the amounts of varous taxes, requre supplemental nformaton from natonal accounts. A condensed SAM descrbes accountng denttes where the rows represent sources of ncome and columns represent expendtures. For example, the account for households n SGM s wrtten as: LABOR + DIVIDENDS + GTR = PCONS + PIT + SSTAX + PSAV Households receve ncome from labor, dvdends from ownng captal, and government transfers. Household ncome s allocated among consumpton, savngs, and taxes. If we start wth accounts for enterprses, households, government, and captal, the accounts can be arranged to derve the dentty 7

8 PCONS + GCONS + INVEST = LABOR + OVA + IBT + NET_BORROWING or that domestc fnal demand equals natonal ncome plus borrowng. A SAM provdes an accountng snapshot of an economy at one pont n tme. Other data are needed to determne the amount of captal n each vntage durng the model base year. The preferred way to do ths, f data are avalable, s to obtan data on hstorcal nvestment by producng sector and aggregate nto fve-year vntages. Energy Balances Snce the SGM s an energy model as well as an economc model, attenton s pad to mantanng energy balances as the model operates through tme. An energy balance table s used for baseyear calbraton of energy producton and consumpton. An energy balance table s essentally an energy nput-output table n physcal unts. The orgnal unts mght be tons of coal equvalent (Chna), tons of ol equvalent (Internatonal Energy Agency statstcs), or calores (Japan). In the SGM, we convert all energy unts to joules, expressed as ether petajoules 3 (PJ) or exajoules 4 (EJ). The format of a typcal energy balance table s shown n Fgure 2.2. Note that the role of rows and columns s transposed relatve to an nput-output table: the columns contan energy nputs whle the rows contan energy consumpton actvtes. energy nputs (fuels) producton mports exports sources electrcty generaton ol refnng cokng energy transformaton agrculture ndustry transport resdental buldngs commercal buldngs fnal consumpton Fgure 2.2. Structure of typcal energy balance table All SGM regons, wth the excepton of South Korea, produce crude ol, natural gas, coal, electrcty, and refned petroleum. South Korea produces lttle or no crude ol or natural gas. Some regons provde a separate coal products sector (prmarly coke). Most regons nclude a joules joules. 8

9 dstrbuted gas sector. Dstrbuted natural gas s an artfcal sector created n SGM to account for the cost of gas dstrbuton; t s not an actvty n the IEA energy balances. Natural gas s an nput to ths energy transformaton sector; other costs are added for dstrbuton to fnal consumers. Data for the Unted States Here we descrbe the data used to construct a 1990 U.S. nput-output table, 1990 U.S. energy balance table, and a condensed SAM n a format for SGM-USA. Input-Output Table The U.S. Bureau of Economc Analyss (BEA) dstrbutes nput-output accounts for the Unted States at the followng web address. Benchmark transactons tables are avalable for years 1982, 1987, 1992, and We use transactons tables for 1987 and 1992 to construct an nput-output table for SGM-USA. These data are avalable from BEA n the form of use and make tables, wth nformaton on 498 ndustres. See Appendx B of ths document for background on use and make tables and the varous ways they can be combned nto an nput-output table. The followng steps were used to construct a 1990 nput-output table for SGM-USA. Frst, the use and make tables for 1987 and 1992 were aggregated to the SGM set of producton sectors. Second, the use and make tables were nterpolated to year Thrd, the use and make tables were combned nto a commodty-by-commodty table. Ths table for SGM-USA s dsplayed n Appendx C. One ssue wth essentally all economc nput-output tables s that crude ol producton and natural gas producton are treated as a sngle producton sector. We requre these be separate producton actvtes n SGM, and we splt the nput-output data for ths producton sector based on the relatve value of output between crude ol and natural gas. Natonal Accounts Table 2.4 contans the natonal accounts nformaton used to set up SGM-USA n Entres wth a bold label are taken drectly from the U.S. nput-output table. Natonal accounts data are then requred for the followng: corporate ncome taxes, personal ncome taxes, socal securty taxes, government transfers to households, and personal savngs. The remanng entres are determned as resduals to satsfy the accountng constrants that row sums equal column sums. 9

10 Table 2.4. Condensed socal accountng matrx for SGM-USA n Unts are 1990 U.S. dollars. actvtes commodtes prmary factors enterprses households government captal rest of world actvtes GROSS_OUTPUT 9,790,599 9,790,599 commodtes INTERMEDIATE_INPUTS PCONS GCONS INVEST EXPORTS 4,269,660 3,760, , , ,179 10,381,711 prmary factors VALUE_ADDED 5,520,940 5,520,940 enterprses OVA 1,823,076 1,823,076 households LABOR DIVIDENDS GTR 3,248,246 1,068, ,000 5,124,823 government IBT CIT PIT+SSTAX 449, ,500 1,143,300 1,733,418 captal RE PSAV GSAV NET_BORROWING 613, ,300 77,633 47, ,865 rest of world IMPORTS 591, ,112 9,790,600 10,381,711 5,520,940 1,823,076 5,124,823 1,733, , ,112 The relatonshps n Table 2.4 are an abstracton of the U.S. natonal accounts. A full set of natonal accounts would have many more entres, ncludng nterest payments between varous agents. Energy Balances We have two possble sources for energy balances for the Unted States. We could use the U.S. energy balances publshed by the Internatonal Energy Agency, or we could go back to the orgnal source data from the U.S. Energy Informaton Admnstraton (EIA) and construct our own energy balance table 5. We have chosen to develop our energy balances from U.S. DOE/EIA source data. Whle EIA does not publsh an energy balance table, one can construct a table from other data publshed by EIA. Table 2.5 contans such a table, and ths table s used n SGM-USA. Energy consumpton data n Table 2.5 are organzed nto 21 producton sectors for SGM-USA. The three prmary fuels are crude ol, natural gas, and coal. All crude ol goes to the petroleum refnng actvty and s transformed to petroleum products. All natural gas goes to the gas dstrbuton actvty and s consumed by other sectors as dstrbuted gas. Ths dstncton between prmary fuel and dstrbuted fuel provdes a convenent method to account for transformaton and dstrbuton costs; the prce dfferental between prmary and dstrbuted fuels can be large. Most coal goes to electrcty generaton, but some goes to ndustral uses and coke producton. Also note that the energy balance table contans a change n nventory account, whch has no representaton n SGM: ths category s treated as f t were an export n model calbraton. 5 Whle IEA data are derved from DOE/EIA submssons, no full reconclaton s presently avalable. 10

11 Table U.S. energy balances Fuel (petajoules) Crude Natural Refned Dstrbuted Actvty Ol Gas Coal Coke Electrcty Petroleum Gas 1 Ol Producton Natural Gas Producton Coal Producton Coke Producton Electrcty Generaton , ,318 3,041 6 Petroleum Refnng 30, , Natural Gas Dstrbuton 0 19, ,347 8 Grans Anmal Products Forestry Products Food Processng Other Agrculture Paper and Pulp Chemcals ,675 2, Cement, Stone, Clay, Glass Iron and Steel Nonferrous Metals Other Industry ,204 2,842 2, Passenger Transport , Freght Transport , Servces (everythng else) , ,298 Consumpton (prvate) ,326 1,336 4,767 Consumpton (government) Change n Inventory ,612 0 Exports , ,511 0 Imports -13,472-1, ,589 0 TOTAL (domestc producton) 17,462 18,284 23, ,084 31,611 19,454 Data Sources Common to More than One Regon Some of our data sources are used by more than one regon, ncludng energy balances from the Internatonal Energy Agency, and base-year emssons of non-co 2 greenhouse gases. IEA Energy Balances The Internatonal Agency (IEA) publshes energy balances from 1960 through 2003 for countres n the OECD, and from 1971 through 2003 for more than 100 non-oecd countres. Energy balance tables generally have fuels n columns and actvtes (energy producton, transformaton, end-use consumpton) n rows. The IEA tables come n two forms, basc and extended, whch dffer prmarly by the number of columns for fuels. Both tables have data on natural gas and electrcty, but the basc tables aggregate several fuels nto the coal and coal products and petroleum products sectors. Coal and coal products conssts manly of coal, coke, and gases from coal transformaton. Petroleum products conssts of several fuels ncludng motor gasolne, desel fuel, fuel ol, and kerosene. Orgnal unts n the IEA energy balances are tons of ol-equvalent, whch IEA defnes n terms of calores. These data are converted to joules for use n SGM. For the fve countres where SGM was rebult n collaboraton wth researchers n that country, and local energy balances were used nstead of IEA energy balances. 11

12 Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gases Emssons of the followng non-co 2 greenhouse gases are currently tracked n SGM: CH 4 emssons whch emanate from the producton and dstrbuton of natural gas, mnng of coal, from the rasng of rumnant anmals, the growng of rce, from santary landflls, and from combuston processes (prncpally bomass burnng). N 2 O emssons from combuston processes, fertlzer use, selected natural sources. HFC-23 emssons from the producton of HCFC-22. Short lved HFC emssons from varous uses as substtutes for ozone-depletng substances, ncludng losses from refrgeraton and ar-condtonng equpment, foam blowng, aerosol propellants, cleanng solvents, and fre extngushers. PFC emssons from alumnum and semconductor producton. SF 6 emssons from use n electrcal swtch gear and as a cover gas n magnesum smeltng. In general, the release of CO 2 to the atmosphere s proportonal to the energy content of the specfc fuel by a fxed rato of the energy content of the fuel to the carbon content of that fuel and therefore largely ndependent of the sector or subsector n whch the fossl fuel form s combusted 6. In contrast, emssons of the non-co 2 greenhouse gases are not lmted to fuel use actvtes, and thus ther emssons factors do not represent a stochometrc relatonshp between the output of a sector and actual emssons. In some cases ths s because the relatonshp between emssons and the actual emssons actvty s not stochometrc, n others t s because the actual emssons actvty s much more narrowly defned than the SGM producton sector the emssons are assocated wth. In order to smulate emssons of non-co 2 greenhouse gases, the model calbrates emssons to outsde projectons. Ths s accomplshed through the use of base year emssons factors for each source, and tme dependant adjustment parameters for those emssons factors, that are calbrated to outsde projectons. Regon-Specfc Data Sources We have establshed collaboratons wth nternatonal research nsttutons to assst wth data and model development. At the tme a data set s constructed wth a collaborator, we usually work together at the same locaton for at least two weeks, and sometmes much longer. Table 2.6 provdes a lst of collaboratng nsttutons that helped construct SGM nput data sets. 6 Adjustments are necessary for non-fuel uses of energy products, e.g. plastcs and asphalt. 12

13 Table 2.6. Collaboratng nsttutons for orgnal versons of SGM (1985 and 1990 base years) Regon Insttuton USA -- Canada Unversty of Vctora, Brtsh Columba W. Europe CIRED, Pars, France Japan Natonal Insttute for Envronmental Studes (NIES), Tsukuba Australa/NZ Australan Bureau of Agrcultural and Resource Economcs (ABARE) fsu Moscow Energy Research Insttute E. Europe -- Chna Energy Research Insttute (ERI), Bejng Inda Indan Insttute of Management, Ahmedabad Mexco Colego de Postgraduados, Montecllo, Mexco S. Korea Korea Energy Economcs Insttute (KEEI) Mddle East -- Rest of World -- Notes: More recently, other nternatonal collaboratons have been establshed. The Federal Unversty of Ro de Janero s developng SGM-Brazl wth an extended number of producton sectors. The Mexcan Petroleum Insttute (IMP) s helpng to update SGM-Mexco to more recent base years and to extend the number of producton sectors. The German Insttute for Economc Research (DIW) n Berln has constructed SGM-Germany wth a base year of Versons of SGM-Japan have been constructed wth base years of 1995 and 2000 for recent analyss of clmate polcy n Japan. Here we descrbe the major data sources used for the four countres, other than the U.S., that have an extended set of producton sectors. Data sources for other SGM regons are descrbed more generally. Japan The orgnal nput-output table for Japan n 1990 contans approxmately 500 producton sectors. PNNL was provded wth an aggregated verson of the nput-output table n a spreadsheet. Japan publshes a tme seres of energy balances n two forms: one n orgnal physcal unts and another wth all fuels converted to common unts of calores. The energy balances are qute detaled n terms of fuels and energy consumpton by ndustry. Chna 1990 Input-Output Table of Japan. Energy Balances n Japan, FY. Energy Data and Modelng Center, Japan Insttute of Energy Economcs. Chna publshes benchmark nput-output tables for 1987, 1992, and 1997, but also provdes a smaller table, wth 33 producton sectors, for The table for 1990 was used to construct SGM-Chna. Chna also publshes energy balances, both n terms of physcal unts such as tons (coal), lters (petroleum products), and cubc meters, but also n common unts of tons of coal equvalent. The same publcaton also provdes supplemental tables on energy consumpton by ndustry 13

14 Inda Input-Output Table of Chna 1990, Department of Balances of Natonal Economy and Offce of Input-Output Survey of State Statstcal Bureau, Chna Statstcal Publshng House. Chna Energy Statstcal Yearbook ( ), Department of Industral and Transportaton Statstcs, State Statstcal Bureau, People s Republc of Chna. Chna Statstcal Yearbook on Investment n Fxed Assets ( ) Chna Statstcal Yearbook 1995, State Statstcal Bureau, People s Republc of Chna. Inda s fscal year runs from Aprl 1 through March 31 and annual data are usually provded on a fscal year bass. The basc source for energy balances and energy consumpton s the TERI Energy Data Drectory and Yearbook, publshed annually by the Tata Energy Research Insttute (TERI) n New Delh. Government of Inda, Input-Output Transacton Tables , Central Statstcal Organzaton, New Delh. Tata Energy Research Insttute, TERI Energy Data Drectory and Yearbook, varous ssues, New Delh. Government of Inda, Annual Survey of Industres, Mnstry of Industry, New Delh. Government of Inda, Natonal Accounts Statstcs, Central Statstcal Organzaton, New Delh. South Korea An aggregated verson of 1990 Korea nput-output table was provded to PNNL n a spreadsheet by the Korea Energy Economcs Insttute. Tme seres of energy balance tables s avalable for South Korea. Yearbook of Energy Statstcs 1998, Mnstry of Commerce, Industry and Energy, Korea Energy Economcs Insttute. Other Regons For fve other SGM regons, we combned nput-output tables wth IEA energy balances to construct hybrd nput-output tables, but only two producton sectors outsde of the energy sectors were ncluded. These regons are: Canada, Western Europe, Australa/New Zealand, the former Sovet Unon, and Mexco. In each case, the collaboratng nsttuton lsted n Table 2.6 provded an nput-output table and natonal accounts data. To provde full global coverage n SGM for smulatons of trade n carbon emssons rghts, three other regons were constructed: Eastern Europe, Mddle East, and Rest of World. These models are based prmarly on 1990 energy balances from IEA, but also use natonal ncome accounts and data on consumer expendture from the Unted Natons Statstcal Yearbook. Value shares n 14

15 producton, especally for captal and labor nputs, were carred over from other SGM regons to complete the nput-output table. Unted Natons Statstcal Yearbook 1995, Unted Natons, New York. These models nclude seven producton sectors: agrculture, everythng else, crude ol producton, natural gas producton, coal producton, electrcty generaton, and ol refnng. The everythng else sector ncludes all economc actvty not n the other sx producton sectors. III. Model Calbraton All SGM regons are calbrated to match base-year energy consumpton, carbon emssons, and economc actvty s the current model base year, and one model dagnostc s the comparson between base-year model output and base-year data. We use the term calbraton to refer to the steps needed to ensure that the model reproduces the base-year nput data set. One of these steps s to construct a balanced hybrd nput-output table so that all uses of a commodty equal the sum of all sources, and that the value of output for any commodty equals the cost of producton. Producton functon techncal coeffcents are calculated n the SGM computer code, and are functons of nput value shares n the benchmark hybrd nput-output table. Another step s to set up nvestment functons for each sector to reproduce base-year nvestment levels. Ths secton descrbes constructon of a benchmark nput-output table, calbraton of base-year nvestment, and organzaton of data n calbraton workbooks. Energy Balances and Input-Output Data Ths secton descrbes the constructon of a benchmark nput-output table for an SGM regon. The prmary motvaton s to provde a strct energy accountng n SGM, whch n turn mproves the representaton of carbon doxde emssons. Three types of data are used: an economc nputoutput table n local currency; an energy balance table, and engneerng parameters and costs for electrc generatng technologes. The result s a hybrd nput-output table. The term hybrd refers to hybrd unts n the model nput data and not model structure. All energy flows are n unts of joules, whle real base-year currency (e.g., 1990 US$) s the unt for other goods. The hybrd nput-output table places no restrctons on the form of producton functons n SGM. Mller and Blar (1985) provde a general descrpton of, and the motvaton for usng, hybrd nput-output tables. The basc dea s that energy rows n the hybrd nput-output table are obtaned drectly from energy balances. Ths requres rebalancng other data n the hybrd nput-output table, but energy quanttes are preserved. Base-year model output wll match base-year energy balances. As the SGM steps through tme, energy markets clear n terms of energy quanttes (joules), ensurng energy balance for all model tme steps. Several enhancements can be consdered. The electrcty producton sector can be dsaggregated nto specfc generatng technologes, resultng n extra columns n the use table. Snce an energy balance table s essentally an energy nputoutput table, t can be descrbed n terms of use and make tables just as one does wth an economc nput-output table. Ths procedure also places a burden on the modeler to consder ways that energy-related costs, such as dstrbuton of natural gas, are handled n the benchmark data set. Other efforts to ncorporate energy balances nto economc nput-output tables nclude Malcolm and Truong (1999), and Rutherford and Paltsev (2000). 15

16 Hybrd Input-Output Table The followng steps are used to create a hybrd nput-output table from an economc nput-output table and an energy balance table. a. Put the economc nput-output table n a format sutable for SGM. Ths nvolves aggregaton across producng sectors and possble converson to a 1990 base year. b. Obtan a 1990 energy balance table, convert unts to joules, and aggregate the energy balance table across fuels to match SGM format. Rearrange actvtes (rows) wthn the energy balance table to match those of the economc nput-output table. c. Transpose the energy balance table so that rows correspond to fuel nputs and columns correspond to energy-consumng actvtes. d. Create a hybrd nput-output table where the energy rows (nputs) come from the transposed energy balance table and all other rows come from the economc nput output-table. Ths table s no longer n value terms but s now consdered to be n quantty terms wth unts of joules for the energy rows and unts of 1990 dollars (or other local currency) for all other rows. e. Fnd a set of prces for all ntermedate nputs that wll rebalance the hybrd nput-output table n value terms. By rebalancng, we mean that the value of output n each producng sector s equal to the total value of nputs. A lnear equaton may be derved for each producng sector, resultng n a system of equatons that can be solved to obtan a prce for each ntermedate nput. It s mportant to note that these prces are derved from the calbraton process and are not hstorcal prces (except for exogenous prces such as for crude ol). Ths reflects a modelng phlosophy that assumed technology characterstcs, represented by the nput-output and energy balance data, should determne relatve prces n the model, and not the other way around. Fnally, create a new hybrd nput-output table n value terms by multplyng all quanttes by ther respectve prces. f. We have the opton of redefnng unts for the non-energy nputs n the hybrd nput-output table. We usually redefne these unts so that prces equal 1.0 n the base year, but energy prces can reman n terms of dollars (or other local currency) per unt of energy. The fnal hybrd nput-output table provdes us wth a representaton of the economy that s completely consstent wth base-year energy balances. Energy producton and consumpton for each fuel wll exactly match the quanttes n the base-year energy balance table. Electrcty Generatng Technologes Electrc power generaton s the largest source of global fossl fuel CO 2 emssons. It s therefore treated n detal. Instead of modelng electrcty generaton as an element wthn a larger aggregate sector or even a sngle producton process, the electrcty generatng sector s splt nto several generatng technologes, ncludng gas-turbne, coal-steam, nuclear, and hydro power. The unt of output s klowatt-hours (kwh), and each generaton process contrbutes kwh to total sector output. Economc nput-output tables contan lttle nformaton on specfc generatng technologes, but energy balances provde nformaton on fossl fuel consumpton and kwh generated. Ths s 16

17 supplemented by engneerng cost data wth enough nformaton to construct a levelzed cost, n dollars per MWh or mlls per kwh, of electrcty by generatng technology. These data nclude the purchase prce of captal (dollars per klowatt), energy effcency (as a percentage or as a heat rate), plant factor (fracton of hours n a year that plant s operated), and operaton and mantenance cost (mlls per kwh). Engneerng and costs data for electrc generatng technologes n SGM-USA are dsplayed n Table 3.1. Table 3.1. Engneerng cost assumptons for electrcty generaton subsectors n SGM-USA. Some of the generatng technologes (natural gas combned cycle, pulverzed coal, coal IGCC) are avalable wth or wthout carbon doxde capture and storage (CCS). natural gas coal renewables sngle Parameter unt ol cycle NGCC PC IGCC nuclear hydro wnd Operatng n model base year? yes yes no yes no yes yes no Economc assumptons fuel prce $/GJ nterest rate percent 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Captal cost purchase cost of captal $/kw ,150 1,401 1,000 1,000 1,200 plant factor percent 20% 40% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 20% captal lfetme years nterest plus deprecaton percent 11.7% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7% levelzed captal cost mlls/kwh Fuel cost effcency percent 32% 36% 50% 32% 41% fuel cost per kwh mlls/kwh Operatons and mantenance cost mlls/kwh Levelzed cost per kwh (total) mlls/kwh CCS operatonal n base year? no no no capture effcency percent 90% 90% 90% CO2 captured kg-co2/kwh captal cost $/kg-co2/h O & M cost mlls/kg-co energy requred kwh/kg-co Notes: Engneerng and cost assumptons n ths table, especally wth respect to CCS technologes, are generally consstent wth Davd and Herzog (2000). Adjustments were made to the fuel effcency of exstng technologes to mantan compatblty wth base-year energy balances. Durng the base year, we are constraned to mantan consstency between electrcty data n the energy balance table and engneerng descrptons of generatng technologes, especally wth respect to generatng effcency. If they are not consstent, then ether the energy balances or engneerng data are adjusted to make them consstent. Heat rates mpled by the energy balances are a broad average over generatng plants of all vntages and scales of generaton. Engneerng data typcally represent a modern plant wth a specfc generatng capacty. We usually do not modfy data from the energy balance tables: a change n one element of the table requres a change somewhere else n the table to mantan balance. A full hybrd use table, n quantty terms, s descrbed n Fgure 3.1. A use table allows for more actvtes than there are nputs to producton; n ths case there are fve ways to generate electrcty n the base-year use table, but there s only one electrcty nput to other consumpton or producton actvtes. All elements of the hybrd nput-output table (or more accurately, a 17

18 hybrd use table) n Fgure 3.1 are nterpreted as quanttes. Each row, or nput, has an assocated prce whch s used to convert the table to values. commodtes crude ol natural gas coal coke electrcty refned petroleum dstrbuted gas other ndustres ol producton gas producton coal producton joules real dollars coke ol-fred electrcty gas-fred coal-fred joules nuclear real dollars hydro petroleum refnng gas dstrbuton actvtes other ndustres joules real dollars consumer fnal demand government nvestment joules exports real dollars mports factors land labor captal real dollars real dollars real dollars Fgure 3.1. Structure of hybrd use table. Energy rows are n joules; non-energy rows are n unts of real local currency, n ths case dollars. Electrcty generaton technologes are represented as ndvdual columns. Base-Year Calbraton of Investment The SGM operates n fve-year tme steps and keeps track of captal stocks n fve-year vntages. Durng each tme perod, the model converts nvestment for each producng sector nto a captal stock, wth the captal stock defned to be fve year s worth of nvestment. Each type of captal stock has a specfed lfetme, typcally four tme perods or 20 years. At the end of the captal stock lfetme, the captal s retred and no longer used. Captal stocks are operated across ther lfetme wth no decrease n techncal effcency. The SGM nvestment structure has two stages. The frst stage allocates new captal across producton sectors wthn a model tme step, where each producton sector produces a unque product and s assocated wth a unque prce. The second stage allocates sector-level nvestment to subsectors wthn a sector, where each subsector represents a dfferent way to produce the product for that sector. Electrcty generaton s the only producton sector n SGM wth subsectors; each subsector represents a dfferent generatng technology. Sector Level Investment Sector-level nvestment n SGM s governed by one of two nvestment algorthms, ether an nvestment accelerator functon or an output accelerator functon. The functonal form s descrbed n detal n the SGM theory document (Fawcett and Sands, 2005). The level of nvestment depends on several parameters, ncludng an expected proft rate. Investment functons are calbrated n the base year so that (1) calculated nvestment by sector matches hstorcal nvestment by sector; and (2) the expected proft rate equals 1. The prmary nvestment 18

19 calbraton parameter s an nvestment wedge, a sector-specfc adder to the SGM nterest rate. For each sector durng calbraton, the nvestment wedge s adjusted untl the expected proft rate equals 1. 7 The key determnant of nvestment n SGM s the expected proft rate, or rate of return to new captal. If the expected proft rate equals 1, dscounted returns from an nvestment just cover the purchase cost of the captal good. If prce expectatons are myopc (the standard case), an expected proft rate equal to 1 reduces to the condton that prce receved equals levelzed unt cost. The SGM s calbrated so that the expected proft rate equals 1 for each producton sector n the base year. The condton that the expected proft rate equals 1 can be wrtten as fac j p j q P x N 1 j = 1 K K p x = 1 (1a) where P k s the purchase prce of the captal good. The left-hand-sde of equaton (1a) s the expected proft rate; the numerator s the sum of dscounted revenues less varable costs, assumng that future prces are the same as current prces; the denomnator s expendture on captal. The numerator contans a factor, shown n equaton (1b) that sums and dscounts over the lfetme of the captal stock. fac j = T = r j (1b) Equatons (1a) and (1b) show the dependency of the expected proft rate on a sector-specfc nterest rate and on the captal stock lfetme. When preparng data for an SGM nput fle, a calbraton worksheet replcates the calculaton of the expected proft rate for each producton sector n the base year. The role of the nvestment calbraton worksheet s to search over the nvestment wedge untl the base-year expected proft rate equals 1. Therefore, the sector-specfc nvestment wedge s an nvestment calbraton parameter ncluded n the model nput fle. In general, the nvestment wedge vares across producton sectors. Under some condtons, however, nvestment wedges are the same. Investment wedges are the same f two condtons are met: (1) the rato of other-value-added, from the nput-output table, to the quantty of captal n the most recent vntage, s the same and; (2) both types of captal have the same lfetme. Subsector Investment Electrcty generaton s the only SGM sector wth subsectors. Each subsector represents a technology for generatng electrcty. Investment s allocated across generatng technologes accordng to levelzed unt cost (mlls per kwh), wthn a nested logt structure. Each nest has a parameter (lambda) that governs the rate that nvestment shares change n response to changes n levelzed cost. Ths parameter s set exogenously, but another parameter, assocated wth each 7 Wth myopc prce expectatons, an expected proft rate equal to 1 can be shown to be the same as the zero-proft condton where prce = unt cost (Fawcett and Sands, 2005). 19

20 technology (b), s adjusted n the calbraton worksheet so base-year electrcty generaton matches hstorcal data. share = b C j b j λ C λ j (2a) Some SGM regons use an alternatve method for calculatng nvestment shares by subsector. Ths s based on the subsector expected proft rate. In ths case, a subsector-specfc nvestment wedge becomes the nvestment calbraton parameter. s, j, t λ ( E, j, t) ( Eπ kt,,) = π k λ (2b) Each generatng technology, or subsector, has ts own set of captal vntages and operates just lke any other producton actvty n SGM once the quantty of captal for the most recent vntage has been determned. The SGM calbraton workbook contans an engneerng cost descrpton of each technology, from whch the levelzed cost s calculated. SGM-USA contans a large set of electrcty generatng technologes, ncludng carbon doxde capture and storage (CCS). Some of the technologes are actve n the SGM base year, whle others become actve durng later tme steps. Captal Stock Data To start the SGM n ts base year, we requre nformaton on captal stocks by vntage for each producton sector and subsector. Wth a 1990 base year and a captal lfetme of 20 years, we requre four captal stocks whch equal nvestment durng the tme perods , , , and The followng steps are used to create captal stocks for a regon. a. Obtan hstorcal tme seres of nvestment data for each producng sector. b. Ft an exponental curve to the nvestment data for each producng sector. Ths smoothes the effects of recessons or other temporary devatons from a long-term trend. Ths also provdes a way to extrapolate data backwards n tme f the hstorcal seres of nvestment s not long enough to create all of the needed captal stocks. c. Convert nvestment data to real 1990 currency (e.g., 1990 U.S. dollars) usng a tme seres of GDP deflators. d. Sum nvestment by sector across each fve-year tme perod to create captal stocks wth unts of 1990 currency. Fgure 3.2 provdes an example of annual nvestment data avalable for papermakng and paper products sector n Chna. An exponental lne s ft to the hstorcal data for Chna to smooth out the effects of a recesson around The exponental ft also allows us to extrapolate nvestment data backwards to before 1980 when annual nvestment data by sector s not avalable. The smoothed data are summed over fve-year ntervals to create captal stock vntages. 20

21 mllon yuan (1990 yuan) Fgure 3.2. Annual nvestment: paper makng and paper products n Chna If hstorcal data by producton sector are not avalable for a regon, t s not dffcult to construct a seres of captal stocks consstent wth other-value-added data n the nput-output table. One needs only to back out the amount of captal, n the most recent vntage, that s consstent wth other-value-added, equpment lfetme, and the model nterest rate. After that, an assumed rate of declne n the captal stock, from new to old vntages, s used to construct old vntages of captal. Organzaton of Calbraton Workbooks Data for each SGM regon are assemble n two calbraton workbooks, one for creatng the hybrd nput-output table, and the other for all other nput data and calbraton of the nvestment functon. We refer to the frst calbraton workbook as the Hybrd Table Workbook and the second workbook as the Master Calbraton Workbook. Hybrd Table Workbook Worksheets wthn the Hybrd Table workbook have the followng general organzaton. Energy balances. The workbook starts out wth several worksheets contanng energy balances. The frst worksheet contans orgnal energy balances n orgnal unts. Subsequent worksheets convert unts to joules, then aggregate sectors and actvtes to those n SGM, and then brng n supplemental energy consumpton data f needed. Hybrd. Ths worksheet combnes energy balances wth economc nput-output table to create a hybrd nput-output table, usng the methods descrbed earler n Secton III. The fnal result, an nput-output table fully consstent wth base-year energy balances, s then coped from ths worksheet to the Accounts sheet n the Master Calbraton workbook. 21

22 Input-output table. The workbook ends wth one or more worksheets contanng the economc nput-output table. If the nput-output table s already formatted for the SGM, then only one worksheet s needed. However, some further adjustments are usually needed. For example, almost all nput-output tables combne crude ol and natural gas producton nto a sngle sector. These are dsaggregated n SGM nto separate producton sectors. Master Calbraton Workbook Worksheets wthn the Master Calbraton workbook have the followng general organzaton. INPUT_DATA. Ths worksheet contans all the data needed to run an SGM regon, organzed n blocks of data that can be read by the SGM executable. Data n ths worksheet are lnked to other worksheets n the master calbraton workbook. The workbook contans a macro that wrtes ths worksheet to a separate Comma-Separated-Value (CSV) fle that the SGM can read drectly. Accounts. Ths worksheet ncludes an nput-output table and data on natonal ncome accounts. Some natonal accounts data can be obtaned from the nput-output table, but other data must be entered separately. The worksheet also calculates tax rates from the natonal accounts data. Investment. All of the SGM nvestment equatons are duplcated n ths worksheet so that they can be calbrated to match actual nvestment n the base year. Each nvestment equaton has a calbraton parameter, whch s the sector-specfc dscount rate adder (called the nvestment wedge ). The worksheet uses Excel s Solver tool to fnd the dscount rate where the expected proft rate equals 1 for that sector. Use table. The worksheet contans an expanded verson of the nput-output table, wth the electrcty sector dsaggregated nto the varous generatng technologes actve n the base year. Electrcty. Ths worksheet contans engneerng cost data on all of the electrc generatng technologes used n SGM, whether actve n the base year or not. Engneerng data generally come n unts such cents per klowatt-hour or dollars per klowatt, and these are scaled n SGM to the level of a hypothetcal plant. For technologes that operate n the base year, the sze of the hypothetcal plant s determned by base year generaton n the U.S. For technologes that wll become actve after the SGM base year, the sze of the hypothetcal plant s typcally 1,000 megawatts. Fnally, data by hypothetcal plant are converted to a form that can be placed drectly n the use table as a column for each technology. Captal. Ths worksheet contans the amount of captal n each vntage for each producton actvty n the model base year. The unts are real base-year currency (e.g., real 1990 dollars). Populaton. Ths worksheet contans populaton projectons, for both male and female, by fve-year tme step and by fve-year age cohort. IV. Behavoral Parameters Several types of behavoral parameters govern model response to changes n relatve prces. Ths secton covers the followng types of elastctes n SGM: prce elastcty of demand, ncome 22

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