Investing: Technical Analysis of Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica S.D.
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1 December 22, 2011 Research Update: Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica S.A. Assigned 'BBB-' Corporate Credit Rating Based On Stable Cash Flows Primary Credit Analyst: Reginaldo Takara, Sao Paulo (55) 11 Secondary Contact: Luisa Vilhena, Sao Paulo (55) Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Related Criteria And Research Ratings List 1
2 Research Update: Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica S.A. Assigned 'BBB-' Corporate Credit Rating Based Overview We view Brazil-based TAESA's business profile as satisfactory based on stable cash flows from electricity transmission concessions in Brazil. We are assigning TAESA a 'BBB-' global scale corporate credit rating with a stable outlook. We believe that TAESA will sustain predictable, stable, and very strong cash flow, and that its credit metrics will strengthen in the next few years. Rating Action On Dec. 22, 2011, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services assigned its 'BBB-' global scale corporate credit rating, with a stable outlook, to Brazil-based electricity transmission company Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica S.A. (TAESA). Rationale The ratings on TAESA reflect our views of the company's "satisfactory" business profile and "significant" financial profile, as our criteria define those terms. TAESA benefits from monopoly rights on large energy transmission assets in Brazil, which provide it with a stable and predictable revenue stream through the next several years. Our opinion of the transmission business in Brazil is favorable, considering that the regulatory framework is stable and insulates TAESA from demand risks. TAESA's assets are modern, and its operating efficiency has been high, as reflected in availability rates of more than 99% and very low revenue discounts due to unavailability. Somewhat offsetting these positives are TAESA's somewhat aggressive dividend policy and some pressure on its credit metrics and liquidity after the acquisition of Abengoa Concessões Brasil Holding S.A.'s assets; however, we believe these metrics will improve gradually during TAESA's revenues also depend somewhat on a few assets. Cemig Geração e Transmissão S.A. (Cemig GT; BB/Stable/--) and investment fund FIP Coliseu (not rated) control TAESA, holding 39% and 57% of the company's total capital, respectively. According to our methodology, we believe that the influence of FIP Coliseu in TAESA's corporate governance allow us to consider it as having some independence in decision making and a certain cash segregation between TAESA and Cemig GT, such that the rating on the parent Standard & Poors RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal December 22,
3 Research Update: Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica S.A. Assigned 'BBB-' Corporate Credit Rating Based doesn't limit that on TAESA. TAESA's main assets are Novatrans and TSN, two large high-voltage transmission lines with great relevance to the National Interconnected System (SIN). These assets currently contribute about 78% of company's annual permitted revenue. This results in a certain cash flow concentration, but this percentage will reduce after the proportional consolidation of the Abengoa assets. Technical complexity to maintain the transmission lines is not high, but it demands control and expertise because the system supports several substations and the transmission lines run over long distances. Adequate condition of the assets and Cemig GT's provision of technical staff to TAESA significantly mitigate operational risks. In fact, TAESA's profitability has improved significantly since Cemig GT and FIP Coliseu took over the company, based on the best practices deployed by Cemig GT and its contribution to negotiating contracts with suppliers. The company's EBITDA margin reached 89.9% in the 12 months ended September 2011 and compares favorably with international peers'. The company has recently completed the acquisition of a 50% stake in four transmission lines from Abengoa, and full ownership of Nordeste Transmissora de Energia S.A. (NTE). Consequently, TAESA has expanded its business substantially. The synergies with TAESA's existing assets are material, given their proximity and potential for providing operating improvements. TAESA benefits from a stable and predictable regulatory environment. The National System Operator (ONS) exercises operating control over the transmission lines, and TAESA is responsible only for maintaining and making technical improvements to its assets. ONS also acts as billing agent for all transmission companies. TAESA has very stable and predictable cash flows based on annual permitted revenue (RAP), which is adjusted annually for inflation and discounted for a variable portion due to unavailability. The company has historically reported high operating efficiency, with discounts of less than 1.5% of RAP over the past five years and less than 1% in the past two years. Except for one asset, all the concessions TAESA operates don't pass productivity gains as tariff resets during the first 15 years of their concession periods; RAP reduces by half after year 16 of each concession. The company's financial management has been conservative, in our view, but its credit metrics will likely weaken with the acquisition of the Abengoa assets, which it financed with debt. TAESA reported total debt to EBITDA and funds from operations (FFO) to total debt of 1.8x and 53.2%, respectively, for the 12 months ended September We project these metrics weakening to about 3.0 to 3.5x and 20% to 25%, respectively, until These metrics are somewhat aggressive for the rating category, and will be especially so by year-end 2011 and early 2012, but we believe TAESA will sustain strong free cash flow generation and use this to reduce its leverage gradually. Liquidity We view TAESA's liquidity as "adequate," based on the following assumptions: 3
4 Research Update: Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica S.A. Assigned 'BBB-' Corporate Credit Rating Based Although its cash sources will probably be somewhat tight in 2011 because of extraordinary dividend payouts, we expect them to exceed uses by more than 1.7x in 2012 and 2013; Cash sources will likely remain higher than cash needs even if EBITDA declines by 20% in the next two years; and The headroom under the covenant limit of net debt to EBITDA to 3.5x should be somewhat tight until mid-2012, but we project that, beginning at year-end 2012, the company will meet its financial covenants even if EBITDA declines by about 20%. We assume TAESA will be able to refinance its promissory notes later in 2012 because of its adequate relationship with banks. Cash sources include TAESA's cash reserves of Brazilian reais (R$) 474 million as of September 2011 and funds from operations of approximately R$725 million in Cash uses include debt service, a recent payment of R$1.16 billion to Abengoa, and dividend distributions, including an extraordinary reserve distribution of R$330 million in 2011 resulting from changes to international financial reporting standards. TAESA's dividend policy has meant an average payout of 70% in the past few years, at a minimum of 50% of net income. Distributions will likely remain somewhat aggressive in the next years, but these could be a potential source of liquidity under a stress scenario. On the other hand, we don't project significant investments in fixed assets--only those directed to maintenance and occasional system reinforcements. Outlook The stable outlook reflects our opinion that TAESA will strengthen its financial profile gradually in the next few years, reducing leverage and improving liquidity during We don't factor in our analysis additional large acquisitions or greenfield investments that could potentially further weaken its financial profile. We project TAESA's total debt to EBITDA at about 3.5x and FFO to total debt at about 20% in Operating deterioration that causes revenue discounts to exceed 5%, or a reduction in EBITDA margins to less than 80% because of higher costs, could trigger a downgrade because credit metrics would likely diverge from our current expectations. Related Criteria And Research Differentiating The Issuer Credit Ratings Of A Regulated Utility Subsidiary And Its Parent, March 11, 2010 Criteria Methodology: Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix Expanded, May 27, Corporate Criteria: Analytical Methodology, April 15, 2008 Standard & Poors RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal December 22,
5 Research Update: Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica S.A. Assigned 'BBB-' Corporate Credit Rating Based Ratings List Transmissora Alianca de Energia Eletrica S.A. Corporate Credit Rating National Scale braaa/stable/bra-1 Commercial Paper National Scale bra-1 New Rating Transmissora Alianca de Energia Eletrica S.A. Corporate Credit Rating Global Scale BBB-/Stable/-- Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal at All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. 5
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