The Promise and Perils of Innovation

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1 COE Forum The Promise and Perils of Innovation Competitive Challenges to the Traditional Post-Secondary Education Model

2 2 August 28, 2014 Carleton University Ottawa, ON

3 Disruption Fatigue Who Knew that Innovation Could Sound So Familiar? 3 Required Reading at Board Meetings and Planning Retreats The Conventional Litany of the Broken University Business Model Uncontrolled cost increases Graduates lack critical skills Resistance to pedagogical innovation Irrelevant scholarship Tenure protects faculty from accountability Undergraduate tuition subsidizing faculty research Traditional universities captive to the prestige arms race real change will come from radical, low-cost models

4 The Status Quo is Unsustainable The Case for Government-Led Reform in Ontario 4 Academic Reform Policy Options for Improving the Quality and Cost-Effectiveness of Undergraduate Education in Ontario A Consistent Message Emerges Refocus incentives on teaching Expand online course offerings Create three-year degrees Operate year-round Tie funding to outcome metrics Simplify credit transfer across colleges and universities 3x3 3 Cubed PSE Institutions as Centres of Creativity, Competency, and Citizenship Equipped for the 21st Century Commission on the Reform of Ontario's Public Services

5 The Bubble Argument in a Nutshell 5 For a growing number of Americans, a college degree is something obtained only through enormous sacrifice and indebtedness on their part or their parents', or a dream that is entirely out of reach. Meanwhile, most college leaders live in a bubble in which the costs of ever more elaborate facilities, expanding administrative bureaucracies, and high-profile professors with light teaching loads can simply be passed on to customers in the form of higher tuition. But those days are about to end. Underneath the surface, upstart institutions are perfecting radically new education technologies and business plans at the same time that young people and their parents are becoming more frustrated with the traditional higher-ed model, and more open-minded about alternatives. There is every reason to suspect that, quite soon, these new institutions will do to higher education what Sony did to radios and Apple did to computing. Afterward, our colleges and universities will never be the same. Few Americans, one suspects, will look back in regret. Stuart M. Butler From The Coming Higher-Ed Revolution (2012) College is unaffordable And increasingly inaccessible Because too much is spent on facilities, administration, and faculty who don t teach. However, new technologies offer cheaper alternatives And students are beginning to abandon traditional institutions Which will force universities to change radically, or disappear The Advisory Board Company 28669D

6 The Incumbent s Dilemma Certain Downside, Speculative Upside for Exiting Prestige Arms Race 6 Clayton Christensen in a Nutshell: Be More Like BYU Idaho End tenure Dismantle departments Refocus research on pedagogy Switch to fully online degrees Enroll the marginally qualified Reduce number of programs Scale back merit-based aid Cut back big-time sports I m Certainly Not Going First I understand that as an organization we could be a lot more efficient. But if I tried to make some of the changes that are being recommended, the accreditors would be all over me, I d have a faculty revolt, and pretty quickly, I d be out of a job. Provost Public Research University

7 Featured Models of Efficiency Impossible to Emulate Nascent Small-Scale Publics Built from Scratch 7 New STEM-Focused Institution Fills Unmet Need at Low Cost Mayo Clinic Partner Becomes Learner-Focused System Branch Opened in 2005 Single 16-story building No sports, gym, or dorms No tenure; 12-month contracts No departments From the beginning we decided we didn t want this to be a traditional institution, because we in business who had been involved with other higher education institutions felt that everything took too long. Chair of Planning Committee Opened in 2008 to serve nearby Mayo Clinic First class of 57 undergrads in 2011 No departments Differentiated faculty model separates curricular design, teaching, and targeted projects The bad news at the beginning was that we had no faculty; the good news was that we had no faculty. Chancellor Stephen Lehmkuhle Source: Reinventing Higher Education: The Promise of Innovation, Ed. Kevin Carey, Andrew P. Kelly, and Ben Wildavsky, Harvard Education Press, 2011.

8 Not In Our League Startups Hardly Look Like a Threat to Established Universities 8 Peer-to-peer learning Unaccredited Non-profit, tuition-free 1,300 students Pay-by-the-course Gen Ed Unaccredited For-profit $99/month plus $39/course 38 entry-level college courses Free video micro-lectures Unaccredited Non-profit, tuition-free 3,000+ lectures available

9 A Disruptive Moment Opening the Floodgates Sebastian Thrun s Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) Goes Viral 9 Two Fashionable Brands One Hot Global Topic Truly Amazing Uptake Celebrity Faculty Dr. Sebastian Thrun Stanford Professor Cutting-Edge Corporation Topics Covered Knowledge Representation Inference Machine Learning Planning and Game Playing Information Retrieval Computer Vision Robotics 160,000 Enrolled Students From Announcement to Launch: 2 months 195 Countries Source: Steven Leckart, The Stanford Education Experiment, Wired Magazine, April 2012.

10 The EAB MOOC Mania Tour The Hottest Topic on Campuses Across North America A Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

11 The Question Behind the Question MOOC Questions Highlight Uncomfortable Issues for Higher Education 11 Why People Love MOOCs What s Wrong with Higher Education Open How can we improve racial and socio-economic diversity? Large-Scale How can we overcome capacity bottlenecks? Free to Students Are we becoming unaffordable to most students? Low Cost to Provide Is it possible to bring down cost per student? Global Audience Are we trapped by regional demographics? Elite How will we ever compete with wealthier, higher ranked universities? 27017A Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

12 Is Disruption Finally Here? Students Have Real Alternatives 12 Students Taking at Least One Online Course (Millions) New Competitors Enter the Ring % % 2014 The Advisory Board Company 28669D 27.3% Share of Students Taking at Least One Online Course 33.5% In fifteen years from now half of US universities may be in bankruptcy. Clayton Christensen Harvard Business School Source: Allen and Seaman, Grade Change: Tracking Online Education in the U.S. January 2014; In 15 Years From Now Half of U Universities May Be in Bankruptcy: My Surprise Discussion Both Sides of the Table, March 2013; Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

13 Hitting the Trough of Disillusionment Another Confirmation of the Technology Hype Cycle 13 Spring 2012 Udacity, Coursera and edx founded Fall 2011 Stanford faculty launch open courses Jan 2013 San Jose State partners with Udacity on for-credit MOOC Nov 2012 Gates announces $3M in MOOC grants Feb 2013 ACE recommends 5 MOOCs for credit Sept 2012 Colorado State Global Campus accepts Udacity MOOC for credit Feb 2013 Georgia Tech MOOC is first to be canceled due to technical problems July 2013 San Jose State pauses partnership with Udacity due to disappointing student results April 2013 Amherst faculty reject edx partnership May 2013 Harvard faculty demand greater oversight over edx program Nov 2013 There is no pedagogical problem in our department that JusticeX solves. We regard such courses as a serious compromise of quality of education, and, ironically for a social justice course, a case of social injustice. Thrun: We have a lousy product Philosophy Department San Jose State University 2014 The Advisory Board Company 28135D Source: Press releases and news outlets; Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

14 Enrollment The Illusion of Scale Vast Majority of MOOC Registrants Drop Out By First Assignment 14 Typical MOOC Enrollment Pattern Start Date Half of registrants are no-shows Registered Case in Point Bioelectricity, Fall 2012 Duke University 12,725 Watched a video 7,761 First Assignment Casual lurkers move on Took any quiz Took Week 1 Quiz Took Week 4 Quiz 1, ,658 Attempted Final Certificate Time 27017A Source: Duke University Report, February 2013

15 15 Let s Not Kid Ourselves They re mostly taken by educational technologists, already-qualified individuals, and Tom Friedman. Kevin Bell Northeastern University College of Professional Studies 27017A Source: Kevin Bell, The Hijacking of MOOCs, Inside Higher Ed, May 6, 2013

16 The Indelible Middle Man Even MOOCs Resorting to Coaching Model to Get Results 16 4,356 A Herculean Task Number of forum posts by Penn professor Al Filreis in first MOOC Never Again The time demands, logistics, and politics of developing a MOOC will bury you. Karen Head Assistant Professor, Georgia Tech The Necessity of Course Assistants Harvard professor asks alumni to help moderate upcoming MOOC Udacity hires dozens of tutors to support new partnerships New startup, Course Pods, brings live tutoring to Udacity online courses Study finds offline help biggest predictor of success in MOOC 27017A Source: Breslow, DeBoer, Ho, Pritchard, Seaton, & Stump, Studying Learning in the Worldwide Classroom: Research into EdX s First MOOC, Research & Practice in Assessment, June 2013

17 17 The Unavoidable Cost of Success "What we've learned is the computer program alone, a MOOC alone is not likely to be a good educational medium for large numbers of people, except for the truly highly selfmotivated. To be successful, we need people on the ground to do things, to provide educational services." Sebastian Thrun 27017A Source: David Carr, Udacity CEO Says MOOC Magic Formula Emerging, Information Week, Aug. 20, 2013.

18 Hype Not Disruptive Yet Alternative Education Providers Not Attracting Traditional Students 18 Critical Institutional Buy-in 7 institutions allow students to request credit for MOOCs Good Enough After All 14 MOOCs approved for credit Dawn of a New Era? ACE announces pilot program allowing students to apply to earn credit for MOOCS What Are We Missing? Student requests for credit: 0 Time 2014 The Advisory Board Company 28669D Source: Credit-for-MOOCs Effort Hits a Snag Chronicle of Higher Education

19 The Unfulfilled Promise of MOOCs Little of What We Hoped or Feared Has Come to Pass 19 The Promise The Reality Free Credits Students will take free courses from top universities for credit No institution grants credit to students not enrolled and not paying tuition Job Placement Employers will hire people based on performance in MOOCs Outside of computer programming, few students are being placed in jobs Educational Access The poor and uneducated around the world will have access to the best instructors Vast majority of MOOC students already have baccalaureate degree, reside in wealthy countries Better Outcomes at Lower Cost Elite University Domination Massive courses will reduce instructor costs while technology can maintain or improve outcomes Lower-ranked institutions will disappear as elites scale up free education MOOCs are most effective when students receive instructional support MOOC providers rapidly expanding partnerships with less elite institutions 2014 The Advisory Board Company 28135D Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

20 The Taming of the MOOC What Universities Are Really Doing with MOOCs 20 MOOC 1.0 For the good of humanity MOOC 2.0 Achieving Institutional Goals Brand Enhancement Flipping the Classroom Scaling Up Masters Programs Lead Generation Investing in global publicity Improving the quality, cost, and capacity of on campus instruction Enabling large-scale, lowcost revenue generating degree programs Recruiting students into existing academic programs 27017A Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

21 Disruption Revisited: A Dialogue of Extremes Senior Leaders Divided between Alarmism and Complacency 21 The Disruption Debate at Many Strategic Planning Retreats Our business model is doomed MOOCs? Great universities will survive How can we compete with free? We ve never had more applications. We need to move everything online. Students care about the campus experience A Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

22 From Whether to How We Will Go Online Rising Above Misconceptions and Semantic Debates 22 Modality Debate Misses Important Distinctions Online is not a market Online is neither more nor less effective Online is neither more nor less profitable Online will not replace your campus Online is not a strategy Key Lessons in Starting a Productive Conversation Different populations require different programmatic strategies Wrap-around services and design standards critical to student success Costs and revenues driven primarily by instructional model and class size Instruction and services will be delivered in multiple modalities Institutional priorities and goals should drive decisions about technology 27533C Source: EAB interviews and analysis

23 Breaking the Iron Triangle Proponents Argue Online Learning Avoids Traditional Trade-Offs 23 Bill Bowen, Then and Now Access 2000 All the talk of using technology to save money by increasing productivity has a hollow ring in the ears of the budget officer who has to pay for the salaries of a cadre of support staff, more and more equipment, and new software licenses and who sees few offsetting savings. Cost Quality 2012 I am today a convert online learning, in many of its manifestations, can lead to at least comparable learning outcomes relative to face-to-face instruction at lower cost. Bill Bowen President Emeritus, Princeton University Source: William G. Bowen, At a Slight Angle to the Universe: The University in a Digitized, Commercialized Age, Romanes Lecture for 2000, University of Oxford, Oct. 17, 2000; Ibid., Higher Education in the Digital Age, Princeton University Press, 2013, p. 45

24 Quality at Scale Inactive Learning, in Person and Online Few Benefits from Static Content Delivery 24 Sage on the Stage Less Engaging Generic Online Course Lecture Reading 1-2 hours of lecture No way to rewind Physical constraints of classroom Students play passive role Group Discussion Practice / Projects Teaching Others Readings and homework posted online No forum for interaction correspondence No additional value from technology More Engaging

25 Academic Quality The Unbundling of Faculty Roles Analyzing the Instructional Value Chain 25 Content Creation Content Delivery Learning Assessment Student Support Traditional Model Faculty Member Faculty Member Faculty Member Faculty Member In House Alternative Professional Course Designers Lecture Capture Independent Competency Tests Peer Tutors Outsourced Publisher Course in a Box Adaptive Learning Technologies Outsourced Grading On-Demand Advising Open Source Open Educational Resources itunes U Massive Open Online Courses Online Peer Advising

26 Establishing Instructional Standards Setting a Bar for Design With New Modalities Come New Expectations 26 The High Price of Poor Quality Difficult to navigate Broken links ADA noncompliant Flawed Online Courses Components not compatible with students and institutions software Faculty Impact Overwhelmed by troubleshooting problems Negative course evaluations Directions for course activities unclear Limited instructorstudent interaction No direct link to student services Student Impact Dissatisfied with course High failure rates Roadmap for Encouraging Consistent Course Standards Setting Baseline Standards Self-Review Checklist Targeted Evaluation Review Prioritization High DFW rates Master Courses Part of fully online program 2 Continuous Improvement Longitudinal Effectiveness Analysis Pre-Launch Screening Peer Review Learning Objectives Assessment Instructional Materials Learner Interaction Learner Support Accessibility 27533C Source: EAB interviews and analysis

27 Access Serving the Multi-Modal Student Flexible Formats Critical to Growth and Access 27 Multi-Modality at the University of Central Florida Head Count by Location, Fall 2010 Growth in Student Credit Hours Main Campus Students (47,926) 60% Secondary Campus Students (2,472) 3% 1% 1% 18% 1% 1% 4% 1% 2% Web Students (17,172) 7% Regional Campus Students (5,251) 4% Classroom 32% Online Classifying a student as main campus or extended campus or distance becomes meaningless in an environment where students take whatever courses they need in whatever location or modality best suits their requirements at the time. Thomas Cavanagh AVP of Distributed Learning University of Central Florida 27533C Source: Thomas Cavanagh, The Postmodality Era: How Online Learning is Becoming Learning, EDUCAUSE Game Changers, May 2, 2012

28 Relevance to Core Becoming Clearer Technology Will Enhance, Not Replace, Undergraduate Experience 28 Path to Graduation Eased by Online and Blended Coursework Online remedial math course prior to Fall start Self-paced online catch up course after dropping pre-med chemistry Online summer course to complete missing pre-requisite Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Hybrid gen ed course with online lectures and discussion boards Two online courses to stay on track while studying abroad Even Yale Yale College students in New Haven, subject to the approval of their DUSs and their residential college deans, may take one (but not more than one) online course for credit during their fall and spring academic semesters. Report of the Committee on Online Education, Dec C EAB interviews and analysis

29 Quality at Scale Winning on All Fronts with Course Redesign Alternative Model Expands Capacity, Improves Quality, and Costs Less 29 Faculty TAs and Peer Mentors Concept 1 Concept 2 Concept 3 Pre-Reading Pre-Quiz Lecture Practices Problem Solving Homework Embedded Videos Pre-Lecture Prep e-tutor Mini-Tests e-tutor Reduction in Increase in 12% DFW rate 45% enrollment cap 31% Cost savings per student Source: Physics Large Course Redesign Project Report, UNC Charlotte, Center for Teaching & Learning, Sept. 8, 2011.

30 Few Excuses Left Course Redesign Gaining Traction Across Institutional Types and Disciplines 30 I always thought I was a pretty good lecturer, but I had come to a realization that even my most successful students weren t retaining a lot of the material I d covered from one course to the next. Elizabeth Alexander Texas Wesleyan History Professor Math History Emporium model: 1 hour in class, 2 hours in large computer lab Significantly improved completion and retention rates 19% instructional cost savings English Historical Methods class won Radically Flexible Classroom award Movable furniture and tech-enabled classrooms facilitate group work Physics From 3 hours to 1 hour in class per week Additional time spent in one-on-one sessions, peer tutoring, and multimedia lessons Clickers and frequent feedback opportunities keep students on track Students grouped based on answers to questions Do our students actually learn during class, or do they simply feverishly scribble down everything we say, hoping somehow to understand the material later? Eric Mazur Harvard Physics Professor Source: The National Center for Academic Transformation (; Texas Wesleyan s Classroom.NEXT: 21 st Century Learning in Action, Campus Technology, April 10, 2012.

31 Toward a Blended Future Multi-Modal Delivery Both More Popular and More Effective 31 Within Your Reach About 80% of online students live within 100 miles of a campus or service center of the institution they attend, and the large majority live within 50 miles. Geographic proximity is a major advantage in attracting online students. Online College Students 2012 Aslanian Market Research Bullish on Hybrid Anecdotal Evidence Backs Statistics on Role of Region Even online students want to come to campus and be part of our community Students value our connections with local employers and industry Known regional brands hold signal value for nontraditional students leery of slick for-profit marketing pitches A blended approach helps mitigate the common persistence gap we see in fully online programs Instruction combining online and face-to-face elements had a larger advantage relative to purely face-to-face instruction than did purely online instruction. US Department of Education Evaluation of Evidence-Based Practices in Online Learning, 2010 Source: Online College Students 2012, Aslanian Market Research and The Learning House, Inc, 2012; EAB interviews and analysis

32 Quality at Scale Game-Based Learning on the Horizon Motivating and Educating a Generation of Gamers 32 7 Million Years Total worldwide playtime 8 Million Players Currently subscribed 300 Million Minutes Total playtime per day 2 Billion Downloads Since 2009 Built-in Assessment Contextual Learning Motivating Progression Players must solve problems, coordinate teams, and develop mastery to beat the game Completion signifies known competencies and objective achievements Players learn by doing, not reading or watching Puzzles placed in compelling, intuitive narrative Crowd-sourced theorycrafting for serious players Games must be accessible and fun, yet challenging Huge amount of data used to calibrate incentives Experience points and items provide social recognition Source: James Paul Gee, Games and 21 st Century Learning, Games for Learning Institute, May 6, 2009; Jane McGonigal, Be a Gamer, Save the World, The Wall Street Journal, Jan 22, 2011.

33 Transforming Commodity Courses Breaking the Cost / Capacity Curve With Self-Paced Learning 33 Adaptive Software Promotes Engagement and Provides Analytics Dramatic Improvement in Remediation Results Activity-Based Learning Short, engaging, real world problems to solve Moved into regular freshman math 25% 50% Finished 4 weeks early Achievement Points Uses game-like badge system to track progress and motivate students Automated Assessment Built into activities and diagnostic exams, which adapt to performance Performance Dashboards Instructors focus face time on biggest stumbling blocks 66% 75% Pass Rate Before Remedial Math Pilot 5,000 students 13% 6% Withdraw Rate After Source: Bruce Upbin, Knewton Is Building the World s Smartest Tutor, Forbes Magazine, Feb. 22, 2012.

34 The Platform Wars Big Data Fueling Emerging Market for Education s Google Equivalent 34 Next-Gen Learning Platform Class2Go Course administration Multimedia content delivery Live collaboration tools Real-time performance data Predictive analytics Adaptive assessment Automated advising The Power of a Platform It's hard to predict who will win the platform wars, but it's easy to predict that someone will. The costs of building an online platform are negligible The rewards of building the winning platform are vast, as Instagram found when it was bought by Facebook for $1 billion. Kevin Carey, New America Foundation How Many Providers Do We Need? In 50 years, there will be only 10 institutions in the world delivering higher education and Udacity has a shot at being one of them. Sebastian Thrun Source: Kevin Carey, Revenge of the Underpaid Professors, The Chronicle of Higher Education, May 20, 2012.

35 Building Assessment In Instructor Dashboards Provide Real-Time Outcome Data, Predictive Analytics 35 Source: Candace Thille, Changing the Production Function in Higher Education, American Council on Education, March 2012.

36 A Governor s Dream Competency-Based Alternative Helps Meet Completion Goals 36 Online. Accelerated. Affordable. Accredited. A Radically New Instructional Model No courses or credits, just competency exams No traditional instructors; faculty a mix of assessment designers, subject matter experts, and student mentors 46,000 students nationwide Average age = 36 70% work full time 30% annual growth An Appealing Alternative to For-Profits Founded by 19 governors in 1997 Tuition: $5,780 per year; hasn t been increased since 2007 Online, self-paced instruction expands access to non-traditional students New subsidiaries in Indiana, Washington, and Texas Indiana s 8 th State University Governor Mitch Daniels commissioned Western Governors University Indiana in 2010 No state allocation; initial funding from Gates & Lumina Foundations WGU students are eligible for state aid Critical in meeting completion goals Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

37 Radically Different Approaches to Success Inverted Delivery Model Emerging Challenge to Tradition 37 Typical University Program Faculty Design Course, Lecture, Mentor, and Assess Students Physical Interaction 3-4 Hours per Week in Class Experts Determine Competency Requirements Physical Interaction Limited to Clinical Placements Rigid Course Structure Coaching Possible from Graduate Assistants, Tutoring Center Flexible Content (No Courses) and Modular Curriculum Dedicated Student Mentors Conduct Regular Check-Ins Midterm and Final Exams Hand-Graded by Faculty, TAs Option to Test Out of Limited Introductory Courses Assessments Automated or Conducted Through Web Proctoring Extensive Recognition of Prior Learning Through Competency Assessment Source: EAB interviews and analysis

38 Integrating Academic and Career Preparation Beginnings of a Marketplace for Digital Badges Will Micro-Certifications Replace the Symbolic Power of Diplomas? 38 What s a Digital Badge? What s Needed for a Liquid Market? Mozilla s Open Badges Infrastructure makes it easy to issue, display, and manage badges across the web. 1 2 Proof-of-Concept Funding MacArthur Foundation launches $2M contest for badge design Open IT Standards Mozilla developing interoperability specs for badge formats Government Affinity Groups Industry Associations Individual Employers 3 Credible Sponsors Famed organizations designing and recognizing badges Collectable, sharable certifications of specified competencies Acquired by examination, demonstration, proof-of-experience Help students find a job, collaborator, or social media followers Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

39 Using Badges as Infrastructure for Learning Outcomes Early Adopter Rethinking Assessment in a Digital Age 39 Beyond Mere Grades New Major Building Learner-Centric Toolkits Suzy Smith E-Portfolio Sustainable Agriculture & Food Systems Internship Deliverables Agriculture students will earn badges based on competencies, skills, classes, and internships Mix of pre-determined standards and self-assessment with peer review Intended to capture learning that occurs outside of traditional classroom setting and beyond graded assignments Strategic Management Interpersonal Communication Experimentation & Inquiry Recorded Presentations Experimental Results and Analysis Operationalizes emphasis on learning outcomes Instruction Peer, Mentor, and Faculty Feedback Evidence Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

40 Price The Path Dependency of Total Cost Reducing Degree Costs through Articulation and Faster Time to Completion 40 Typical Option Typical Option Four Years at Private University Six Years at Public University Three Years in BA Program $179 K Two Years in Master s $137 K Private On Time Graduation Public Two Years at CC Four Years at Public University Two Years at CC Two Years at Private Two Years at Public 1 Assumes in-state tuition at public four-year ($8,244) and two-year ($2,963), tuition at private university ($28,500) and room / board while at the public four-year ($8,887) and at the private four-year ($10,089) $106 K $91K $63 K $100 K Six years of room and board significantly increase total cost With this option, degree from private university costs less than six-year degree from public By far the cheapest option, in part due to fewer years on campus Source: College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2013.

41 Competing on Price with High-Demand Courses An Experiment in Outsourced General Education 41 Few Official Partners StraighterLine At a Glance Business Model Most affordable provider of online general education courses courses account for 1/3 of all higher ed Pricing $99 a month + $39 course registration fee $999 a year for 10 courses But Some Early Incumbent Adopters And 250+ Have Accepted Credits Enrollment 1,000 students in 2010; 3,000 students in 2011 Next Steps ETS iskills and CLA assessments for a fee ACE Recommended Credit for free courses + StraighterLine assessment

42 Do You Know Where Those Credits Came From? Growing Opportunities for Credit Laundering 42 Swirling Students Bringing Questionable Credits Public Research University Less Selective Private Masters University Highly Selective Research University

43 Canada s Online University Not Yet a Threat Push Toward Efficiency and Access a Matter of Policy 43 Adult Students Having Little Impact on Enrollment Growth Full-Time Undergraduate Enrollment in Canada 500,000 Under , , , to 24 Online and Scalable 160 faculty and 38,000 students 98% of students are employed A Complementary Relationship Online courses start on demand Lessens burden on traditional institutions 100, to Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates; Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

44 Unbundling the Degree The Emergence of Course-by-Course Competition 44 Through Forced Articulation Agreements, a Market for Credits Is Beginning to Appear Summer Program at Private College Local College Winter Intersession at School in Hometown Home Institution: Research University For-Profit Online Program Semester Abroad at Foreign Institution Regional Public University MOOC Online Competency Based Program itunes U Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

45 Local Industry Partnership Online Scale Developer Enrollment Shifts Blurring Institutional Barriers Innovation Centered Around Reaching New Kinds of Students 45 Regional University Regional Branch Campuses Niche Online Certificate For-Profit Provider Local College 4-year Baccalaureate Commercial Research Parks Honors Programs Continuing Education Programs Prestigious Research U.

46 Value in Higher Education No Longer a Monopoly Market Incumbents Losing Control Over Previously Exclusive Territory 46 Open courseware from elite schools Outsourced general education units Elite MOOC certificates Community User-curated encyclopedias 2+2 transfer agreements Credentials Niche blogs, podcasts, and portals Credit banks Robust online collaboration tools Digital media distribution Content Credit Accelerated completion providers Digital badges Virtual labs Integration with employers Project-based instruction Online Course Consortia Employer-defined competencies Problem-based research

47 The Bigger Issues Behind MOOC Mania Critical Strategic Concerns for Institutional Leadership 47 The Current MOOC Debate Governors Can we use MOOCs as low cost alternatives? Administrators Will we fall behind if we don t do a MOOC? Boards Will students abandon us for MOOCs? Faculty Will MOOCs make us expendable? The True Agenda 1 Sustaining Tuition Revenue 2 Building an Online Strategy Declining public funding Innovative program designs New student markets Evolving student preferences Challenges to affordability New types of competitors Student success challenges Improved instructional quality Economies of scale Regulatory risk Faculty development Student support services 27530A