Techneau, 07. JUNE Generic Framework and Methods for Integrated Risk Management in Water Safety Plans

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1 Techneau, 07. JUNE 2007 Generic Framework and Methods for Integrated Risk Management in Water Safety Plans

2 Techneau, 07. JUNE 2007 TECHNEAU Generic Framework and Methods for Integrated Risk Management in Water Safety Plans 2006 TECHNEAU TECHNEAU is an Integrated Project Funded by the European Commission under the Sixth Framework Programme, Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems Thematic Priority Area (contractnumber ). All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a database or retrieval system, or published, in any form or in any way, electronically, mechanically, by print, photoprint, microfilm or any other means without prior written permission from the publisher

3 Colofon Title Generic Framework and Methods for Integrated Risk Management in Water Safety Plans Authors L. Rosén 1, P. Hokstad 2, A. Lindhe 1, S. Sklet 2, J. Røstum 2 1 Chalmers University of Technology 2 SINTEF Quality Assurance By KIWA and LNEC Deliverable number D D D D This report is: PU = Public

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5 Summary In the 3 rd edition of the Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, the World Health Organisation (WHO, 2004) emphasis the preparation of risk-based Water Safety Plans (WSPs) to manage risks to drinking water consumers. WHO, among others, emphasise that the entire supply system, from source to tap, should be considered when managing risks. The WSP framework facilitates a much needed increase in awareness and understanding of risk issues for providing safe drinking water. However, an analysis of the WSP framework indicates that there are opportunities for further development, primarily regarding risks to water quantity and methods for risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. The main objective of Work Area 4 (WA4) Risk Assessment and Risk Management in TECHNEAU (TECHNEAU, 2005) is: to integrate risk assessments of the separate parts in drinking water supplies into a comprehensive decision support framework for cost-efficient risk management in safe and sustainable drinking water supply. The framework should be regarded as a structure and toolbox for risk assessment and risk management in WSP. It should be applicable to both groundwater and surface water supply systems, with basic as well as more complex designs. The framework should also be applicable on both the operational and strategic levels. A generic framework which forms the basis for further development of risk management procedures and methods in TECHNEAU is presented in this report. The main components of the suggested framework are shown in Figure 1. To provide the necessary basis for integrated risk management for both basic and complex systems on the operational as well as strategic levels, the framework includes all major steps in the risk management process, as defined in established standards, e.g. IEC (1995). To be efficient and functional, the framework must also include a set of reliable and well-established tools, adapted to specific decisions to be made and considering type of water supply system, level of complexity, and level of decisions, i.e. operational or strategic. Principal levels of sophistication of risk assessment tools are: - Qualitative, e.g. based on checklists and classification of risk levels, providing relative ranking of lists and identification of critical points for risk reduction. - Quantitative, e.g. based on models for combining and structuring events and chains of events, and estimations of quantitative risk levels. This level of sophistication facilitates quantitative comparison of estimated risk levels with established risk tolerability levels. - Quantitative including decision analysis methods, facilitating strategic analysis of risk reduction measures, e.g. estimations of the risk reduction investment trade-offs in prioritisation of risk reduction options. TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

6 Risk Analysis Define Scope Identify and Estimate Risks Qualitative Quantitative Risk Evaluation Define tolerability criteria Water quality Water quantity Analyse risk reduction options Ranking Cost-efficiency Cost-benefit Risk Reduction/ Control Report risks Make decisions Treat risks Report residual risks Monitor Get new information Update Develop supporting programmes training, hygiene practices, upgrade and improvement, research and development Document assure quality Communicate Review, approve and audit Figure 1. The main components of the TECHNEAU generic framework for integrated risk management in WSP. The suggested framework cannot provide one single risk management method applicable to all types of water utilities for decisions at both strategic and operational levels. Instead, the framework when fully developed will provide: - Principles for good risk management practice - The relevant set of tools necessary for performing the risk assessment and management - Description of these tools, e.g.: o o o TECHNEAU Hazard database, THDB Risk analysis methods description TECHNEAU Risk reduction options database, TRDB o Decision support tool - Clear examples of risk assessment applications and testing of these tools. TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

7 Contents Summary 1 Contents 3 1 Introduction 5 2 The risk management process Introduction Risk analysis Risk evaluation Risk reduction/control Risk communication Notation Generic guides for risk management 16 3 Existing frameworks and national guidelines Review of existing frameworks for drinking water management The Bonn Charter Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point Water Safety Plans The Water Framework Directive Integrated Water Resources Management Agenda Examples on national guidelines EU - The Directive on the Quality of Water ( Drinking water directive ) Switzerland Germany UK Yorkshire water Denmark Sweden Norway The Netherlands USA The Canadian Multi-Barrier Approach Australian framework New Zealand Public Health Risk Management Plan Comparison and discussion 37 4 The TECHNEAU generic framework for integrated risk management 45 5 Review of risk analysis methods Introduction 51 TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

8 5.2 Scope definition and system description Hazard identification HAZID analyses Hazard and operability analysis (HAZOP) Risk estimation Preliminary hazard analysis (PHA) Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) Fault tree analysis Reliability block diagram Event tree analysis Human reliability assessment (HRA) Physical modelling of processes in source, treatment, and distribution Health risk assessment Health impact assessment QMRA (Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment) Barriers and Bow-Tie diagrams Tools in risk quantification Markov models Risk influence diagrams / Bayesian belief networks Monte Carlo simulation Risk measures in water supply systems Water quality Water quantity Individual and societal risks Economic valuation of risks Summary of risk analysis methods 73 6 Case examples Introduction Göteborg case Bergen case Combined use of risk analysis methods 82 7 Risk evaluation approaches Decision situations Risk evaluation 88 8 Conclusions and further work 91 9 References 95 Appendix A 101 TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

9 1 Introduction In the 3 rd edition of the Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, the World Health Organisation (WHO, 2004) concludes that analyses of water quality in treatment and distribution systems are not sufficient to guarantee safe drinking water to consumers. Such analyses are often completed after the water was consumed and they may not provide correct information regarding the health effects of the water. Instead, WHO (2004) recommends preparation of risk-based Water Safety Plans (WSPs) that consider conditions in source waters, treatment systems and distribution networks. WSP is currently being implemented in several countries and is expected to become an increasingly important framework for water management in both developed and developing countries. The WSP guidelines describe risk assessment on a principal level, based on the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) approach. HACCP was originally developed for the food industry (Havelaar, 1994). Because of its origin in HACCP, current WSP practice puts more focus on risk assessments concerning quality and human health than on water quantity, including water security and water supply. The WSP framework facilitates a much needed increase in awareness and understanding of risk issues for providing safe drinking water. The WSP framework, however, offers opportunities for further development regarding considerations of water quantity issues, as well as other stakeholder values. There are also opportunities to further develop WSP regarding more specific methods for risk identification, estimation and evaluation in order to provide cost-effective and sustainable prioritisation of safety measures. The main objective of Work Area 4 (WA4) Risk Assessment and Risk Management in TECHNEAU (TECHNEAU, 2005) is: to integrate risk assessments of the separate parts in drinking water supplies into a comprehensive decision support framework for cost-efficient risk management in safe and sustainable drinking water supply, see Figure 2. Integrated Risk Assessment and Risk Management Source water systems Treatment systems Distribution and plumbing networks Figure 2. Integrated risk assessment and risk management of a water supply system. TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

10 The framework should be regarded as a structure and toolbox for risk assessment and risk management in WSP. It should be applicable to both groundwater and surface water supply systems, with basic as well as more complex designs. The framework should be developed in full concordance with the Bonn Charter strategy (IWA, 2004), which supports and further specifies the use of WSP in water safety assessment. The risk management framework should also be applicable on both the operational and strategic levels, see Figure 3. Here the strategic decisions could relate e.g. to modifications or formulation of maintenance strategy. Operational Strategic Surface water Ground water Basic systems Complex systems Figure 3. Schematic description of the applicability of the integrated framework for risk management in Water Safety Plans (WSPs). In the initial step of the development, stakeholder values will be limited to water safety, or even only to compliance with regulated limit values. Further values, e.g. ecological and socio-cultural values, will be added in a second step in order to more fully consider sustainability issues. To provide the necessary basis for integrated risk management for both basic and complex systems on the operational as well as strategic levels, the framework must include all major steps in the risk management process, as defined in established standards, e.g. IEC (1995), see Chapter 2. The current WSP guidelines are primarily directed at risk identification and qualitative risk assessment for ranking of risks, whereas quantitative risk estimation, risk evaluation, decision-making and risk communication are not described extensively. To be efficient and functional, the framework must also include a set of reliable and well-established tools, adapted to specific decisions to be made and considering type of water supply system, level of complexity, and level of decisions, i.e. operational or strategic. The current WSP guidelines provide general descriptions of risk identification approaches and qualitative (or semi-quantitative) approaches to risk estimations, but do not give detailed TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

11 guidance on specific methods nor quality criteria for risk management. Principal levels of sophistication of risk assessment tools are: - Qualitative, e.g. based on checklists and classification of risk levels, providing relative ranking of lists and identification of critical points for risk reduction. - Quantitative, e.g. based on models for combining and structuring events and chains of events, and estimations of quantitative risk levels. This level of sophistication facilitates quantitative comparison of estimated risk levels with established risk tolerability levels. - Quantitative including decision analysis methods, facilitating strategic analysis of risk reduction measures, e.g. estimations of the risk reduction investment trade-offs in prioritisation of risk reduction options. This document provides reviews and descriptions of WSP, other frameworks and specific methods for risk assessment and risk management in water supply. The overall aim of this report is to identify possibilities for further development regarding the structure and specific tools for more comprehensive risk management in WSP. Specific objectives of this document are: 1. To describe a generic framework for integrated risk management in Water Safety Plans (WSPs). 2. To describe specific risk analysis methods suitable for use in integrated risk management of water supplies. To meet these objectives this report includes the following main sections: - A description of the general risk management process. - A review of existing frameworks and national guidelines for risk management in water supply. - An outline of a proposed generic framework for integrated risk management in WSP. - A review of specific risk analysis methods. - Suggestions of possible risk analysis methods for integrated risk management. Note that in this report the term water safety comprises both water quality and water quantity. The notation is further discussed in Section 2.6. TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

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13 2 The risk management process 2.1 Introduction Although some differences can be found in the literature regarding presentation and outline of the risk management process, there is a rather strong consensus regarding the major contents of the process. The outline shown in Figure 4 is commonly used and is often referred to. According to IEC (1995) the objective of the overall process called risk management is to control, prevent or reduce loss of life, illness, injury, damage to property and consequential loss, and environmental impact. It should be emphasized that an efficient risk management not only protects us from hazards, it also creates opportunities. If a risk is unknown this might restrain us from performing a specific project. However, if the risk is analysed and understood, and it is possible to reduce or control the risk, then the project can be performed. The risk management process includes the entire process from the initial description of the scope and purpose of risk management, the identification of hazards, and the estimation of risks, through the evaluation of risk tolerability and identification of potential risk reduction options, to the selection and implementation of appropriate risk reduction measures. Risk management also includes risk monitoring and follow up during operation. So it should be emphasized that risk management is an iterative process of continuous updating as new information becomes available and as the preconditions change. Successful risk management also requires careful communication of risks between the various involved stakeholders. Risk analysis Scope definition Hazard identification Risk estimation Risk assessment Risk evaluation Risk tolerability decisions Analysis of options Risk management Risk reduction/control Decision making Implementation Monitoring Figure 4. The risk management process (IEC, 1995). TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

14 As stated in Vatn (2004), there is no universally agreed definition of risk. A definition of risk presented by Kaplan (1997) is valuable both when communicating and assessing the risk situation. Kaplan states that the question What is the risk? is really three questions; What can happen?, How likely is that to happen?, and What are the consequences?. Risk may then be expressed as a (complete) set of triplets (S i, L i, X i ), where S i denotes scenario i, L i denotes the likelihood, and X i the consequences. Similarly, according to IEC (1995), risk analysis attempts to answer three fundamental questions: - What can go wrong? (identification of hazardous events) - How likely is this to happen? - What are the consequences? This view is in line with Kaplan s definition of risk. A common description of risk is that it is a combination of the probability and the consequence of a hazardous event, see e.g. ISO (2002), European Commission (2000a) and IEC (1995). 2.2 Risk analysis Risk analysis is a major part of risk management. As seen in Figure 4 the first tasks of a risk analysis are scope definition and identification of hazards/hazardous events. The next step is the estimation of the level of risk resulting from possible hazardous events. This includes both causal analyses/tools to identify the causes and frequencies of these undesired events, and analyses/techniques to investigate their consequences. In Figure 5 a more detailed description of the risk analysis process is presented. The purpose of risk analysis is to obtain information and knowledge about the risk. This information and knowledge are later used when evaluating the risk and in the end, if it is considered necessary, performing risk reduction measures. The risk analysis varies depending on the system that is being analysed and what kind of risk is considered. A risk analysis can be either qualitative or quantitative, depending on its purpose and the risk. The analysis may also be semi-quantitative, which is something between a quantitative and qualitative analysis. When performing a risk analysis it is important to choose which endpoints or consequences to include and also to decide which measures to use. Slovic (2001) emphasize that the choice of one measure or another can make a technology look either more or less risky. TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

15 Start Scope definition Describe concerns Define system Define circumstances State assumptions Identify analysis decisions Documentation Risk analysis plan Hazard identification and initial consequence evaluation Identify hazards Analyse consequences Risk estimation required? Risk estimation Analyse frequencies and/or probabilities Analyse consequences Calculate risk Analysis verification Analysis update when appropriate Documentation Risk analysis report Stop Figure 5. The risk analysis process (after IEC, 1995). 2.3 Risk evaluation The purpose of the risk evaluations is to decide whether or not a risk is tolerable. If the risk is decided to be acceptable it may be enough to control the risk instead of reducing it. However, if the risk is decided to be unacceptable different risk reduction options has to be analysed and compared so that the best risk reduction option can be identified. TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

16 Different categories of stakeholders are in different ways and to different extents involved in the risk management process. It is important to realize that stakeholders exposed to the specific risks may not always be those benefiting from the risk generating activities. For example, industries in a catchment area of a water supply will benefit from their production, but they will also contribute to water safety risks to consumers which have no benefit from the industrial activities. Grimvall (1998) described the principal types of stakeholders affected by decision-making involving risks, see Figure 6. Those exposed to risks Those benefiting from risk generating activities Decision-makers Figure 6. Main categories of stakeholders affected by decisions on risk (Grimvall, 1998). Due to the multi-dimensional character of decision-making regarding risk issues, it is of primary importance that the evaluation of risks and the decision-making are made with respect to criteria and principles that are agreed upon among the affected stakeholders. There are different principles described in the literature for evaluation of risks and it is important that the used principle is openly communicated and accepted by the involved stakeholders. The evaluation principles form the basis for defining risk tolerability. An example of a principle currently much referred to is the ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable), see Figure 7. According to this principle, risks that are clearly unacceptable must be reduced or eliminated under any circumstances. Risks that are clearly acceptable can be left without further actions. In between the acceptable and unacceptable risks there are risks that may be accepted if it is economically and/or technically unreasonable to reduce them. A principle closely related to ALARP, and with the same meaning, is ALARA (As Low As Reasonably Achievable) (Davidsson et al., 2002). TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

17 Unacceptable Risk The risk cannot be accepted under any circumstances ALARP Region The risk can be accepted if it is economically and technically unreasonable to reduce it Acceptable Risk Figure 7. The ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable) Principle (Melchers, 2001). Risk tolerability criteria, based e.g. on the ALARP principle, can be showed in risk matrices, where estimated probability and consequences are graphically displayed in relation to the defined risk tolerability levels, see Figure 8. Probability Consequences Figure 8. Risk matrix with ALARP zones. Also other principles exist and Davidsson et al. (2002) present the following four general approaches that can be used when evaluating risk: - Principle of reasonableness If it is reasonable with respect to economical and technical means, the risk shall be reduced regardless the level of risk. - Principle of proportionality The overall risk resulting from an activity should not be unreasonably large compared to the benefits. - Principle of allocation The allocation of risk in society should be reasonable/fair compared to how the benefits are allocated. TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

18 - Principle of avoidance of disasters Risks with disastrous consequences should be avoided so that the consequences can be managed with accessible resources. The principle of reasonableness is closely related to the ALARP principle. Risk evaluation is further discussed in Section 7.2. The risk tolerability levels must be defined taking peoples perception and aversion of risks into consideration. The public perception has for example been found to have an important affect on the priorities and legislative agendas of regulatory bodies (Slovic, 2001). Examples on factors affecting peoples risk aversion are: - Catastrophic potential - Familiarity - Uncertainty - Individual or societal - Controllability - Voluntariness Renn (1998) mention that technical analyses of risk have drawn much criticism from the social science. One reason to this is that the technical analyses not are considered to include people s perception of risk and social constructions. Klinke and Renn (2002) present nine criteria to be used for evaluating risk. These criteria are meant to include more than just the extent of damage and probability of occurrence when evaluating risks. The nine criteria are: - Extent of damage - Probability of occurrence - Incertitude - Ubiquity - Persistency - Reversibility - Delay effect - Violation of equity - Potential of mobilization 2.4 Risk reduction/control If the risk evaluation has the result that risk is not acceptable, it is required to carry out risk reduction, also called risk treatment. If the risk is decided to be acceptable it may be enough to control the risk instead of reducing it. When risk reducing measures are carried out the action plans for risk prevention/mitigation should, according to the Australian-New Zeeland risk management standard (AS/NZS 4360:2004), include: 1. the planned actions; TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

19 2. the existing/required resources; 3. the involved responsibilities; 4. their duration; and 5. action tracking and controlling measures. Suggestions for risk reducing measures should be an outcome of the risk assessment. When reducing the risk different approaches can be used. Based on the description of risk as a combination of the probability and the consequence of a hazardous event, three different approaches can be identified. Two of the approaches are based on reducing one of the parameters, i.e. the consequence or probability. The third approach is based on reducing both parameters at the same time. One risk reduction measure is denoted risk avoidance; i.e. an activity or process being a source of risk is not started or is discontinued. Sometimes we are looking for risk optimization; i.e. implementation of actions to minimize negative consequences/maximize the positive ones, possibly reducing the probability of the occurrence of undesirable events. 2.5 Risk communication According to the Swedish Rescue Services Agency (SRA, 2003) the purpose of risk communication is to increase the public s knowledge about risk related questions and make them participate in the risk management. Owen et al. (1999) point out that communication of risks related to drinking water between laypeople and experts are complicated due to the difference in knowledge. To be efficient the risk communication has to be a two-way process enabling both parts to contribute. When managing risks to drinking water systems it is important to communicate with all three stakeholders presented in Figure 6. One important part of risk communication is how to present the risk. Slovic (2001) point out that different ways of presenting the same risk information can lead to different evaluations and decisions, even though they are logically equivalent. The fact that peoples perception of risk differs is one of the reasons why risk communication is complicated. 2.6 Notation Integration of risk management requires careful coordination with respect to harmonisation of terminology, commonality in approach, and measurement of risk in comparable units. Terms commonly used in risk management are defined differently by different actors. The following notation and definitions of terms are based on IEC (1995) and are applied in the TECHNEAU project: - Risk is a combination of the frequency, or probability, of occurrence and the consequence of a specified hazardous event. - Hazard is a source of potential harm or a situation with a potential of harm. TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

20 - Hazardous agent is for example a biological, chemical, physical or radiological agent that has the potential to cause harm. - Hazardous event is an event which can cause harm. - Hazard identification is the process of recognizing that a hazard exists and defining its characteristics. - Risk estimation is the process used to produce a measure of the level of risk being analysed. Risk estimation consists of the following steps; frequency analysis, consequence analysis, and their integration. - Risk analysis is the systematic use of available information to identify hazards and to estimate the risk to individuals or populations, property or the environment. - Risk evaluation is the process in which judgements are made on the tolerability of the risk on the basis of risk analysis and taking into account factors such as socio-economic and environmental aspects. - Risk assessment is the overall process of risk analysis and risk evaluation. - Risk management is the systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to the tasks of analysing, evaluating, controlling risk. Note that WHO defines hazard and risk in the following way (WHO, 2004): - A hazard is a biological, chemical, physical or radiological agent that has the potential to cause harm. - Risk is the likelihood of identified hazards causing harm in exposed populations in a specified frame, including the magnitude of that harm and/or the consequences. The definition of hazard given by WHO is not used in TECHNEAU because it only considers health related hazards. The WHO definition of hazard is similar to how a hazardous agent is defined above. A hazard does not have to be an agent in the water, since other sources of harm exist. The definition of risk given above is similar to the WHO definition; both definitions include probability/likelihood and consequence. However, the WHO definition indicates that only health related risks are considered. 2.7 Generic guides for risk management There are various standards and guidelines for risk management. Some examples are: - AS/NZS standard 4360:2004. Risk management. ISBN Standards Australia / Standards New Zealand. - CEI/IEC (1995) Dependability management - Part 3: Application guide - Section 9: Risk analysis of technological systems. - ISO/IEC (1999). Guide 51 Safety aspects - Guidelines for their inclusion in standards. TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

21 - ISO/IEC (2002). Guide 73 Risk management - Vocabulary - Guidelines for use in standards. TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

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23 3 Existing frameworks and national guidelines 3.1 Review of existing frameworks for drinking water management There exist various strategies and frameworks relevant for water management and some of these are described and discussed below. The frameworks and the more general risk management process have been compared and similarities as well as differences have been identified and are presented The Bonn Charter The Bonn Charter for Safe Drinking Water (IWA, 2004) is a high level framework consisting of key principles that are basic requirements for managing water supplies from catchment to consumer. It also provides guidance to the institutional roles and responsibilities. The principles presented in the Bonn Charter are supposed to be applicable from source to tap and the goal is good safe drinking water that has the trust of consumers. According to the document, safe drinking water is fundamental to a healthy community and to its economic development. Drinking water should, according to the Bonn Charter, not just be safe to drink but also have an aesthetic good quality. It is emphasized that risks should be assessed at all points throughout the system and this requires a close co-operation between all stakeholders. The Bonn Charter is a complementary document to the Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality of the World Health Organisation (WHO, 2004) and the use of Water Safety Plans (WSPs) is emphasized. To shortly summarize the Bonn Charter it can be described as a document that clearly states the importance of drinking water to humans and advocates that the entire drinking water system is considered when managing risks Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point The Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) system was originally conceived by the Pillsbury Company in 1960 to assure food safety when delivering food to the NASA space program, and it has later been used by the food industry to assure safe food production (Dewettinck et al., 2001). The HACCP principles are described by the Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex, 2003) and Havelaar (1994) describes the application of HACCP to drinking water supply with main emphasis on microbial contamination. According to Havelaar (1994) HACCP had not formally been applied to the drinking water supply before According to the Codex Alimentarius Commission (2003) HACCP is a science-based and systematic system that identifies specific hazards and measures for their control to ensure safety. Dewettinck et al. (2001) describes HACCP as a preventive system that helps to assure that all products reaching TECHNEAU June 14, 2007

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