COMPANY PROFILE. My recommendation for Paychex is a Buy/Hold.

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1 Ticker: Sector: PAYX Information Technology Industry: Data Processing & Outsourcing Recommendation: Buy/Hold Pricing Closing Price $ wk High $ wk Low $24.65 Market Data Market Cap $9.97B Total Assets $5.039B Trading Vol. 3.51M (avg.) Valuation EPS (ttm) $1.34 P/E (ttm) Div Yield 4.49% Profitability & Effectiveness (ttm) ROA 9.44% ROE 34.64% Profit Margin 24.04% Oper Margin 36.44% By: Taylor Fox My recommendation for Paychex is a Buy/Hold. The fundamentals of the business are strong but the market is very saturated and growth will be hard to achieve. Paychex s strong financial and market leading position with no long term debt and 4.5% dividend put it as an attractive investment. It is a very reliable business and it appears the management operates very efficiently with strong margins. I feel this is a better buy than the alternative, ADP, which we currently own. COMPANY PROFILE Paychex, Inc. is a provider of payroll, human resource, and benefits outsourcing solutions for small to medium-sized businesses. As of May 31, 2010, the Company serviced approximately 536,000 clients. As of May 31, 2010, it serviced approximately 1,700 clients in Germany through four offices. It offers a portfolio of services and products that allow its clients to meet their payroll and human resource needs. These services include payroll processing, payroll tax administration services, employee payment services, regulatory compliance services (new-hire reporting and garnishment processing), Paychex HR Solutions, retirement services administration, insurance services, eservices, and other human resource services and products. In October 2009, the Company 1

2 announced the sale of Paychex Time and Attendance Inc. (Stromberg), a time and attendance company serving mid- to large-sized businesses, to Kronos Incorporated. The Company s payroll service includes the calculation, preparation and delivery of employee payroll checks; production of internal accounting records and management reports; preparation of federal, state, and local payroll tax returns, and collection and remittance of clients payroll obligations. Using these services, clients can communicate payroll information, access existing and historical payroll information, and transfer payroll information calculated by it to their general ledger accounting software, eliminating manual entries and improving the accuracy of bookkeeping. The Company offers human resource outsourcing solutions that provide businesses a fullservice approach to the outsourcing of employer and employee administrative needs. As of May 31, 2010, Paychex HR Solutions were utilized by 19,000 clients. As of May 31, 2010, retirement services were utilized by approximately 51,000 clients. The Company licensed insurance agency, Paychex Insurance Agency, Inc., provides insurance through a variety of carriers. Insurance offerings include property and casualty coverage, such as workers compensation; business-owner policies; commercial auto, and health and benefits coverage, including health, dental, vision and life. As of May 31, 2010, approximately 92,000 clients had appointed Paychex Insurance Agency as their agent for servicing their business insurance needs Google Finance and Reuters 2 Dun & Bradstreet May 31,

3 FIRST QUARTER 2011 HIGHLIGHTS3 Overall, the first quarter 2011 for Paychex was solid with very little bad news and growth across the board. Payroll service revenue increased 2% to $360.7 million. Human Resource Services revenue increased 10% to $145.5 million. Operating income increased 6% to $200.8 million, while interest on funds held for clients decreased 12% to $12.1 million. Operating income, net of certain items, increased 7% to $188.7 million. Net income increased 7% to $131.9 million and diluted earnings per share increased 6% to $0.36 per share. Cash flow from operations was $194.3 million, up 4% from a year ago. Paychex announced total revenue of $518.3 million for the three months ended August 31, 2010 (the first quarter ), an increase of 4% from $500.2 million for the same period last year. Net income increased 7% to $131.9 million and diluted earnings per share increased 6% to $0.36 per share. 3 Paychex 1 st quarter financial statements 3

4 B. Thomas Golisano, Chairman of the Board of Directors, commented, Our first quarter was slightly better than expected. Our client retention has improved. Sales of new units continue to be difficult, but we are implementing changes to our sales process that should enable us to improve sales productivity in the near future. Our first quarter results are encouraging; however, we remain cautious on fiscal Paychex enjoys very consistent earnings year after year due to the nature of their business. Further, shareholders are reaping the benefits of the highest dividend yield in the industry. 5 Overall, the Paychex financial position is very strong. They benefit from industry leading margins and recurring business. However, a slight drop in margins has been steadily occurring throughout the past few years. Paychex's financial position is very strong, with recurring revenues, excellent margins from the ability to generate consistent, strong cash flows, strong client retention and low capital expenditure requirements. The company has the highest dividend in the industry and it continues to grow. Paychex is able to boast absolutely no long term debt but still achieve higher Returns on Equity than its competitors. 4 Paychex 1 st quarter earnings release 5 Smartrend.com. Chip Brian 10/9/2010 4

5 Looking at the above table we realize that Paychex has far better Gross and Operating margins as compared to both its sector and industry. Also, net profit margin is exceedingly better as compared to industry and sector as well. 5

6 We can see all the three critical ratios: ROA, ROI and ROE have been very solid for Paychex as well. This shows how good the strategy is of ADP to efficiently and effectively utilize resources. From a return standpoint, they are far superior to ADP. SWOT Analysis STRENGTHS Competitive market position Paychex is the company to got to for small business payroll services. They are in a very competitive position due to their size and brand recognition. Client retention Paychex has strong client retention capabilities. Considering they focusing almost exclusively on small businesses, no account commands a significant portion of the firm s revenues. Financial Position With no long term debt and solid cash position, they have established a significant buffer from any threats to their current business structure. 6

7 WEAKNESSES Low Employment numbers As higher unemployment continues, Paychex is simply not processing as many paychecks, keeping revenues relatively flat. New Management With the new CEO not even 2 months into work, any change in leadership is a risk. He has not been at work long enough to determine how well the company will do with Mr. Mucci in charge. OPPORTUNITIES CEO s Growth Strategy Last Wednesday, CEO Martin Mucci, laid out his growth strategy focusing on better sales execution. Product packaging and pricing strategies that is easier to understand. 6 Stock is flat since the news. THREATS Matured core payroll business Employer Services categorizes its services between traditional payroll and payroll tax, and "beyond payroll." The traditional payroll and payroll tax business represents the company's core payroll processing and payroll tax filing business. The "beyond payroll" business represents the services that extend beyond the traditional payroll and payroll tax filing services, such as time and labor management, and benefit and retirement administration. Paychex's core payroll business is becoming more mature. New product releases often give sales a boost; lack of product innovation could prove to be detrimental to sales growth. For example, the company's beyond payroll solutions have displayed great payroll revenue growth, well above its core offering. 6 7

8 COMPETITOR COMPARISON Comparatively, Paychex is very strong compared to the industry and competitors. With no long term debt, higher margins and greater ROE, Paychex is obviously a stronger company than most. 8

9 STOCK PERFORMANCE 1 Year Performance Paychex VS. S&P year stock price movement ranges entirely from about per share. 9

10 Recent News On September 30, 2010, Paychex announced that Martin Mucci has been named as President and Chief Executive Officer 7 o He began his career as an analyst with Rochester Telephone, now Frontier Communications Company. He rose through the company, holding a variety of regulatory, finance, and operations management positions. He holds a bachelor's degree in accounting from St. John Fisher College in Rochester, New York and received a master's degree in business administration through the Executive Development Program at the University of Rochester's William E. Simon Graduate School of Business. 8 First Quarter Results. 7% profit increase in line with expectations 9 Deutsche Bank upgraded from Sell to Hold. 10 VALUATION 7 Reuters 8 Reuters 9 Marketwatch.com

11 Second Stage Growth Rate 2% 3% 4% 5% 9% Discount 10% % % The consensus growth ratres through 2015 were relatively similar and there are a few projects they should benefit from so I feel confident in those numbers. Further, all of the numbers I had to manually input have been consistent over the past few years so they seem accurate as well. The stock is currently trading around $ RESOURCES USED References (in addition to what was cited before): Used for financial information: 11

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