U.S. Industrial Activity Outlook

Transcription

1 U.S. Industrial Activity Outlook Enthusiasm Wanes, But for How Long? Tom Runiewicz U.S. Industry Practice Principal/Economist Global Insight Breakfast Seminar April After three strong years, we look for U.S. industrial production to downshift U.S. GDP versus Industrial Production 6.0 Industrial Production GDP

2 This year s s slowdown will be particularly noticeable in manufacturing, especially traditional manufacturing Total Mfg Traditional Mfg 3 High-tech sector slowing, slowing, but will remain one of the few engines of growth in manufacturing High-Tech Mfg 4 2

3 Each major sector within manufacturing will perform differently over the next three years % Change From Year Ago Consumer Goods Materials Investment Items 5 Employment to grow at half the rate of the late 1990s U.S. Employment, Total Nonfarm Payrolls

4 Homes, a source of cash for many big-ticket purchases, but the piggy bank is starting to empty $300 U.S. Single-Family Home Prices Thousands $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Median Sales Price, New Average Sales Price, Existing Consumer spending limiting growth in a number of industries U.S. Consumer Spending for Goods US Consumer Spending for Goods Nondurables Durables Consumer spending has been the foundation for the U.S. economy and manufacturing. Look for a spending slowdown for both durable and nondurable goods this year. 8 4

5 U.S. light vehicle industry the the primary victim of a spending down shift Motor Vehicles and Parts 9 Construction the the weakness in housing will take its toll 25.0 U.S. Investment in Structures US Investment in Structures Nonresidential Residential 10 5

6 Most big-ticket housing-related sectors will decline by at least double digits in Housing-Oriented Industries for Textile Furnishings Carpets & Rugs Wood Products Appliances Furniture 11 A number of materials industries will be hurt Materials Industries for Caused by: Decline in construction Drop off in motor vehicles Slowdown in manufacturing -6.0 Paper Basic Chemicals Resins Paints Nonmetalic Mineral Primary Metals 12 6

7 Two stories are ahead for equipment investment U.S. Equipment Investment Industrial Equipment Info Processing Equip Traditional equipment will see a significant contraction. High-tech will see slowing growth. 13 The equipment sector s s transition is already taking place $23 Monthly Durable Goods New Orders $22 $21 Billions $20 $19 $18 $17 $16 M1 M6 M11 M4 M9 M2 M7 M12 M5 M10 M3 M8 M1 M6 M11 M4 M9 M2 14 7

8 Machinery orders are actually starting to ease, while high tech is maintaining stability Monthly Durable Goods New Orders Billions $42.0 $4 $3 $36.0 $3 $32.0 $3 $2 $26.0 $2 $22.0 $2 $1 M1 M6 M11 M4 M9 M2 M7 M12 M5 M10 Machinery Computers & Products M3 M8 M1 M6 M11 M4 M9 M2 15 Machinery s s three-year expansion is long in the tooth. Adjustments will be made in and Machinery Electrical Equipment 16 8

9 But when you investigate the machinery sector in detail, there are still winners and losers Machinery Industries for Ag Mining Construction Industrial HVAC Engine & Power Metalworking Comm\Serv 17 Computers See Some Softness Computers in particular has witnessed very strong growth over the last several years and appears the least likely to see significant degradation. Buoyed by the launch of MS Vista, refresh cycles for computers look to be solid through and into. Business Investment & Personal Consumption Continue (% Change, SAAR) New Orders Plateau (Billion $, 3-month moving average)

10 Communications Equipment Experiencing Volatility The market for enterprise networking saw its last major upgrade in the late 90s and is due to replace aging equipment. However, it appears that major businesstransforming projects are being put on hold amid concerns about profit growth. Nominal Shipments Have Never Recovered (Billions $, SA, 3-month moving average) Outlook For High-Tech Good, But Not Great High-Tech Industrial Production Slows (Percent Change) Computers Comm Eq Semiconductors The Industrial Production forecast for High-Tech Equipment is still quite solid, but it won t soon return to the halcyon days of the late 1990s. Instead, going forward, the industry expects to see consistently strong, but not spectacular, growth

11 Orders for aircraft equipment and parts are taking off especially commercial equipment $16.0 $1 Monthly Aircraft & Parts New Orders $4.5 Nondefense (left) Defense (right) $ Billions $12.0 $1 $ $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 Billions $6.0 $ M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 M7 M1 $2.0 $ Weakness in trucks is mostly regulatory. Aerospace industry should see double-digit digit growth. 4 3 Med & Heavy Trucks Aerospace

12 Manufacturing Sector Outlook Bottom Line Production growth slows compared with,, and. Investment, the primary engine of growth is starting to soften. Some industries will have a difficult year or two. Other industries will only experience a slowdown, rather than a decline. A few industries will even see expanding growth. Any capacity expansion will be limited. Productivity gains decelerate, but stay strong