The causes of bond market liquidity a survey of market traders

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1 BONDS newsletter No Quarter 2009 The causes of bond market liquidity a survey of market traders This issue s special topic is about The causes of bond market liquidity a survey of market traders by Chris Golden and David Clark. They designed a survey which highlighted some 47 different factors that might influence the liquidity of an instrument in the bond market, along with numerous sub factors (so that Size of Issue is a factor, which has a number of subsidiary factors in terms of a range of sizes, from <=300 million all the way to >10 billion). > 02 5 th SIX Swiss Exchange Bond Event > Expert View 02 > Events 04 > International Bonds 06 > Market Data 08 > Listed International Bonds 11 > Contact 11 There was strong interest in the 5 th SIX Swiss Exchange Bond Event in Zurich on 17 June. More than eighty guests enjoyed a multifaceted programme featuring a number of speakers on a wide range of topics as well as animated discussions. > 04

2 The causes of bond market liquidity a survey of market traders Market liquidity is a term whose definition is increasingly accepted as the ability to trade in size promptly at the indicated market price without significantly changing that price for long. But even with this clear definition, there is no metric established for measuring the liquidity of a market or of individual financial instruments at a given time, nor any clear understanding why that market is or is not liquid then. Rather, we tend to know when markets are liquid or not, rather than understand why that is, or be able to measure the degree of liquidity. One of the reasons for our lack of knowledge on a subject that can be of vital importance to markets is that although most participants realise that the subject is very complex, most studies have for practical reasons reduced that complexity to an oversimplification. So that, for example, the measure of a market s liquidity is mirrored by its turnover; or an instrument s liquidity is measured by its bid-to-offer spread. Aside from their occasionally dubious validity, these over simplifications are of little actual use in practice, whether to market participants or to regulators. That is why we decided that a new approach was needed; and our new approach was to talk to those most closely involved in an actual trade, in other words the traders more specifically bond traders. We believe that those most intimately involved with making or demanding prices are best placed to throw light upon the process of price construction and the factors that contribute to liquidity. By elucidating the factors involved in evaluating liquidity within price discovery and asking what role these factors might play, we should throw light on the nature of liquidity and what affects it. Furthermore we believe that the weights of factors affecting liquidity are likely to change with market conditions and also evolve over time: the value of such a survey would increase over time as trends develop and weights change. Chris Golden is Chairman of EFFAS-EBC, an association of professional bond analysts. He has worked in numerous trading rooms, including those of Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and Nomura, as trader, salesman and head of research, as well as an independent consultant to a number of banks, government agencies and fund managers, including UBS, the European Investment Bank, Agence France Trésor and Flemings. BONDS NEWSLETTER No Quarter

3 We designed a survey which highlighted some 47 different factors that might influence the liquidity of an instrument in the bond market, along with numerous sub factors (so that Size of Issue is a factor, which has a number of subsidiary factors in terms of a range of sizes, from <=300 million all the way to >10 billion). The survey takes between 30 and 40 minutes, and in a pilot study we surveyed some 15 dealers from both the buy and the sell side, in London, Paris and Luxembourg. This generally involved face-to-face interviews. We expect that our next study, which is currently underway, will have about 50 respondents in a wider area of Europe, including Switzerland. Further surveys will take place at least once a year, and over time the survey should grow in number of respondents, frequency and geographical scope. The sample in this pilot study was small so that we should be careful about the results. But some of these results were clearly important: dealers from both sides considered that the ability both to short bonds and to use derivatives markets, including CDS, were crucially important factors of liquidity, respectively ranking 3rd and 5th overall out of 47 possible factors. Sell side dealers considered the ability to borrow and lend stock through the repo market to be amongst the key factors determining liquidity. There were also important implications for retailtargeted issues: a predominantly retail investor base in an issue was generally regarded as reducing its liquidity. Further surprises included the fact that issue size was ranked 15 th out of 47 factors, and issue age (time since issuance or last tap) ranked 30 th. Both of these are commonly believed to be crucial to liquidity, but apparently not. And regulators may be interested to note that neither buy-side nor sell-side considered post-trade transparency to be particularly important for liquidity: they ranked that factor 40th. It was less of a surprise to find that respondents ranked the fact that an issue is public right at the top of the list overall. However in the subsidiary question the liquidity gap between public and private issues (including MTNs etc) was dramatically emphasised: the fact that an issue is public was ranked as the second highest positive contributor to the liquidity of that issue (after comparable benchmarks in the same currency), whereas the fact that an issue is private had the most negative contribution to its liquidity of any of the sub factors examined. To obtain a copy of the report, to find out more, or participate in future surveys, please feel free to contact us. Chris Golden: mail@chrisgolden.com David Clark: d.clark@belairadvisors.eu David Clark Clark is Managing Director of Belair Advisors sàrl, a Luxembourg company specialising in public affairs consulting in the areas of financial markets, and Chairman of Alessia Capital Management sàrl. He is the author with Chris Golden of a recent study The causes of bond market liquidity a survey of market traders which has been presented to the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation, the ECB and the Banque Centrale de Luxembourg. He has been a member of a number of the UK FSA working group on Bond Market Transparency, the Euro Debt Market Association group on the same subject and the Institute for International Finance sub-group on Valuations. Until 2007 he was Head of Funding at the European Investment Bank responsible for the bank s funding in Europe (excluding the euro), Mediterranean and Africa. He is a graduate of Oxford University where he read Politics, Philosophy and Economics. BONDS NEWSLETTER No Quarter

4 ICMA Annual General Meeting and Conference, June 3 5, 2009 in Montreux SIX Swiss Exchange was exhibiting at the 41 st ICMA Annual General Meeting and Conference held on June 3 5, 2009 in Montreux. The event was attended by over 400 delegates. The main speakers included Daniel Zuberbühler, Vice Chairman, Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA, Gilllian Tett, Assistant Editor, The Financial Times, and Philipp Hildebrand, Vice Chairman Swiss National Bank. For SIX Swiss Exchange the event provided an excellent opportunity to strengthen contacts with existing and potential customers. BONDS NEWSLETTER No Quarter

5 5 th SIX Swiss Exchange Bond Event Following a welcome speech by Dr. Christian A. Katz, CEO of SIX Swiss Exchange, Ueli Goldener addressed the topic of bond trading on SIX Swiss Exchange by discussing the reduced SIX Swiss Exchange fees, the new high-capacity transaction platform, as well as the flexible Swiss transparency model, which affords an outstanding degree of investor protection while still accommodating the needs of liquidity providers. The speeches covered many pertinent areas. Dr. Ralf Wiedenmann from Bank Vontobel AG presented his view on the interest rate outlook. Markus Kramer (Zürcher Kantonalbank) focused on the subject of sustainable bond investments, and Alexandra Bossert (UBS AG) provided insight into the creditworthiness of Swiss companies. Also, Maria Bissinger from Standard & Poor s discussed the corporate outlook and default rates in times of crisis. Pius Grüter, SIX Swiss Exchange, explored the latest SBI enhancements and related new strategies. According to Ralph Geiger, Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch & Cie, discipline is necessary when managing credits in a rapidly changing environment. And finally, Thomas Maurer, Bank Julius Bär & Co. Ltd, demonstrated the use of structured interest rate products in today s dynamic world of fixed income trading. A successful SIX Swiss Exchange Bond Event was also held in Geneva on 24 June. Jean-Luc Lederrey, Banque Cantonale de Genève, lectured on the interest rate perspectives for 2009 and In addition, topics such as SBI enhancements, the corporate outlook as well as credit management were also addressed in Geneva. The presentations made at these SIX Swiss Exchange Bond Events can be ordered via (fixedincome@six-group.com). BONDS NEWSLETTER No Quarter

6 The three most active companies Sell side (Q2/2009) Turnover EUR 393,775,017 Head Fixed Income and Credit Head Eurobond Trading Head Eurobond Sales Hanspeter Haag Raffaele Carmine Kenny Chandler Head Fixed Income Secondary IRP Trading Head Fixed Income Secondary Credit Trading Turnover EUR 88,614,663 Urs Beeler Daniel Gut Trading & Advisory Fixed Income Trading & Advisory CH Bonds Trading & Advisory Eurobonds Turnover EUR 42,562,575 Philipp Alena Pascal Bürki Micha Peier Ursula Schneider Daniel Plattner Simon Keel BONDS NEWSLETTER No Quarter

7 The three most active companies Buy side (Q2/2009) Turnover EUR 146,995,791 Head Fixed Income Secondary IRP Trading Head Fixed Income Secondary Credit Trading Urs Beeler Daniel Gut Turnover EUR 142,712,812 Head Fixed Income Trading non CHF Armin Bischofberger Turnover EUR 142,610,995 Head Fixed Income and Credit Head Eurobond Trading Head Eurobond Sales Hanspeter Haag Raffaele Carmine Kenny Chandler BONDS NEWSLETTER No Quarter

8 Turnover CHF bonds SIX Swiss Exchange-listed CHF bonds (government, sovereign, corporate etc., Swiss and non-swiss issuers) CHF mn 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2009 Turnover international bonds SIX Swiss Exchange-listed and non-listed bonds (including all types of international bonds in all currencies except CHF) EUR mn 1,800 1,500 1, / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2009 BONDS NEWSLETTER No Quarter

9 Turnover international bonds Most traded currencies Turnover (in millions) of all types of international bonds, calculated per currency in the original currency Date EUR USD GBP AUD CAD HUF ISK NOK NZD SEK TRY ZAR 03/ / / / / / , / , / / / / / / / / / BONDS NEWSLETTER No Quarter

10 Number of trades international bonds Most traded currencies Number of trades of all types of international bonds per trading currency Date EUR USD GBP AUD CAD HUF ISK NOK NZD SEK TRY ZAR Total 03/2008 3,508 1, , ,276 04/2008 4,037 1, ,881 05/2008 2,867 1, ,367 06/2008 3,333 1, , ,802 07/2008 4,907 1, ,182 08/2008 2, , ,752 09/2008 3,779 1, ,504 10/2008 5,068 2,023 1, ,206 11/2008 4,674 1, ,187 12/2008 3,806 1,740 1, ,980 01/2009 5,554 1, ,724 02/2009 4,775 1, , ,264 03/2009 5,182 1, ,173 04/2009 4,455 1, ,626 05/2009 3,290 1, ,853 06/2009 3,618 1, ,547 BONDS NEWSLETTER No Quarter

11 SIX Swiss Exchange Listed international bonds Valor ISIN Short Name Name Currency Maturity US25380QAA76 DLLTD /12 DIGICEL LIMITED USD USG27649AA34 DLLTD /12 DIGICEL LIMITED USD XS CS VAR 09/20-15 CRED SUISSE GP FIN (US) EUR XS CS /14/12 CRED SUISSE GP FIN (US) EUR XS EXIMUK /12 CSFB INTL (EXIM UKRAINE) USD US225407AA34 CITKIE8 11/06/15 CRED SUISSE (CITY KYIV) USD XS CITKIE8 11/06/15 CRED SUISSE (CITY KYIV) (LPN) USD US515110AP96 RENTEN /15 LANDWIRTSCH. RENTENBANK USD XS PRBANK Var 02/16 STANDARD BK (PRIVATBANK) (LPN) USD XS EXIMUK /16 CS INTL (EXIM UKRAINE) (LPN) USD US515110AR52 RENTEN /11 LANDWIRTSCH. RENTENBANK USD XS BIC Var 03/16-11 BANCO INDUSTR E COM USD US05961HAB42 BIC Var 03/03/16 BANCO INDUSRIAL E COMERC USD XS PFG Float 03/11 PRINCIPAL FIN GLOBAL FND GBP XS ABB /06/13 ABB INT FINANCE LTD EUR US515110AT19 RENTEN /11 LANDWIRTSCH. RENTENBANK USD XS EXIMUK /11 CSFB (EXIM UKRAINE) (LPN) USD XS BIC /21/09 BANCO INDUSTR E COM USD XS CITMOS DRESDNER (CITY OF MOSCOW) (LPN) EUR XS FORUMZ 10 10/09 BANK FORUM (LPN) USD US515110AU81 RENTEN5 11/08/16 LANDWIRTSCH. RENTENBANK USD XS ALFAUA /09 EM STRUCT PROD (LPN) USD US515110AV64 RENTEN /17 LANDWIRTSCH. RENTENBANK USD XS PRBANK8 02/06/12 UK SPV CREDIT FINANCE PL USD XS DEXGRP /12 DEXIA CREDIT LOCAL EUR XS FIUKR /10 STANDARD BANK PLC (1ST UKR) USD XS USCBUZ8 02/22/10 CRD SUISSE (UKRSOTSBANK) (LPN) USD XS VABANK CREDIT SUISSE (VAB BANK) (LPN) USD XS TOYOTA /10 TOYOTA MOTOR FINANCE BV USD US515110AX21 RENTEN /12 LANDWIRTSCH. RENTENBANK USD XS NADRA HSBC BANK PLC (BANK NADR) (LPN) USD XS PIVDE /10 STANDARD BANK PLC (JSC P) (LPN) USD CH KFW Float 11/10 KFW EUR CH KFW Float 11/10 KFW USD XS CITKIE /12 CRED SUISSE (CITY KYIV) (LPN) USD US22546CAL28 CITKIE /12 CRED SUISSE (CITY KYIV) (LPN) USD XS NADRA /17 DCM GLOBAL FINANCE USD US515110AY04 RENTEN /13 LANDWIRTSCH. RENTENBANK USD CH PPHNSW /13 PETROPLUS FINANCE (CV) USD XS NADRAFloat 04/18 DCM GLOBAL FINANCE USD XS BIC 7 04/23/10 BANCO INDUSTR E COMRCL USD US515110AZ78 RENTEN /13 LANDWIRTSCH. RENTENBANK USD (Not including the list of SIX Swiss Exchange-registered programmes) Possibilities for Eurobond listing: With the revised SIX Swiss Exchange Listing Rules for bonds, the SIX Swiss Exchange is positioning itself as an attractive, recognised platform for international bonds. The SIX Swiss Exchange Listing Rules include for instance the possibility to accept various accounting standards as well as to incorporate by reference certain specific documents of the issuer in the listing prospectus. Further information on this topic can be found at: BONDS NEWSLETTER No Quarter

12 Contact Clemens Reuter Head of Client & Product Management T F clemens.reuter@six-group.com Ueli Goldener Product & Relationship Manager Fixed Income T F ueli.goldener@six-group.com Disclaimer SIX Swiss Exchange Ltd None of the information contained herein constitutes an offer to buy or sell a financial instrument that is traded on SIX Swiss Exchange Ltd. SIX Swiss Exchange Ltd is liable neither for the completeness and accuracy of the information given, nor for any loss incurred as a result of action taken on the basis of information provided in this or any other SIX Swiss Exchange Ltd publication. SIX Swiss Exchange Ltd expressly reserves the right to alter prices or product composition at any time. SIX Swiss Exchange Ltd is a joint-stock company under Swiss law. It operates a securities exchange which is licensed and supervised by the Swiss Federal Banking Commission. SIX Swiss Exchange Ltd is a stock exchange recognised in France, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. It may also operate in Austria, Finland, Germany, Sweden, Belgium and Luxembourg. SIX-Group, SIX Swiss Exchange, SPI, Swiss Performance Index (SPI), SPI EXTRA, SPI ex SLI, SMI, Swiss Market Index (SMI), SMI MID (SMIM), SMI Expanded, SXI, SXI LIFE SCIENCES, SXI Bio+Medtech, SLI, SLI Swiss Leader Index, SBI, SBI Swiss Bond Index, VSMI and SWX Immobilienfonds Index are registered or deposited trademarks of the SIX Group Ltd or of SIX Swiss Exchange Ltd, and their usage is subject to licence. SIX Swiss Exchange Ltd, July BONDS NEWSLETTER No Quarter

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