Higher Education Pays: But for Whom? Mark Schneider President, College Measures Vice President and Institute Fellow, AIR

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1 Higher Education Pays: But for Whom? Mark Schneider President, College Measures Vice President and Institute Fellow, AIR

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3 Can You Self-Actualize While Living in Your Mother s Basement?

4 Purpose v. Value? Is it about money or broader outcomes? How to measure value (even if we restrict ourselves to labor market outcomes): Institution vs. Program Level Time frame: Wage data: first year? 5 years? 10? Other data? Rolling averages? Comparisons Criterion based Norm based Individually driven Who should assess value? Government? Others (not for profits vs. for profit companies)?

5 Sub-Baccalaureate Credentials: The Growth Area in Postsecondary Education 5

6 Numbers of Credentials Awarded in US, 2008 and 2013 Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Certificates of less-than 1-year Certificates of 1 but less than 2- years Total Subbac ,000 1,543, , ,000 1,128, ,007,000 1,837, , ,000 1,645,000 Percent growth 39% 19% 42% 85% 46%

7 Highest and Lowest Paying Certificates in Texas Program Name Time To Degree Loan Wages Year 1 Wages Year 5 Wages Year 10 Communication Disorders Sciences and Services 3.6 $13,000 $22,000 $20,000 $22,000 Human Development, Family Studies, and Related Services 3.9 $13,000 $17,000 $20,000 $23,000 Teaching Assistants/Aides 3.0 $16,000 $16,000 $18,000 $24,000 Quality Control and Safety Technologies/Technicians 3.3 $10,000 $44,000 $65,000 $73,000 Industrial Production Technologies/Technicians 2.2 $9,000 $37,000 $60,000 $80,000 Physical Science Technologies/Technicians 3.9 $5,000 $33,000 $61,000 $81,000 Mechanical Engineering Related Technologies/Technicians 2.1 $6, $46,000 $116, 000 Medians (58 certificate programs) 3.1 $8,000 $25,000 $36,000 $46,000 Lessons: Start low, end low. Have technician or technology in training program

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9 Colorado Data Wages by Credential Level, 1, 5 and 10 years after completion, Colorado Certificate(<1 year) $24,513 $39,391 $53,940 Certificate(>1 year) $31,473 $44,070 $48,884 Associate of General Studies $26,396 $40,513 $47,716 Associate Degree(AA or AS) $22,652 $36,920 $42,484 Associate of Applied Science $41,554 $49,694 $54,146 Bachelor's Degree $33,091 $46,930 $55,287 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 Median 1st Year Earnings Median 5 Year Earnings Median 10 Year Earnings

10 Wages 10 years after completion: AAS Degrees Vs. AA/AS Degrees, Colorado Colorado Statewide Median Colorado Mountain College $42,484 $39,000 $44,000 $54,146 Colorado Northwestern Community College Community College of Aurora $48,000 $46,000 $47,000 $59,000 Community College of Denver $38,000 $60,000 Front Range Community College Northeastern Junior College $47,000 $42,000 $45,000 $57,000 Otero Junior College $29,000 $41,000 Red Rocks Community College $44,000 $64,000 Trinidad State Junior College $29,000 $53,000 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 AA/AS AAS

11 Lessons There are subbaccalaureate credentials of high value. Technology/Technician training pays: Know how to fix things Know how to fix people What you study is often more important than where you study it

12 Baccalaureate Degrees

13 Quarterly Wages, by Florida University Florida Atlantic University $10,008 Florida International University $9,758 University of North Florida $9,110 STATE AVERAGE $9,103 University of Central Florida $9,066 University of South Florida $9,046 Florida Gulf Coast University $8,917 University of Florida $8,904 Florida State University $8,457 University of West Florida $8,252 Florida A&M University $7,967 New College of Florida $5,934 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000

14 Long Term vs. Short Term Wages Do Philosophy majors working as Baristas in Starbucks today become Barristers 10 years from now?

15 Average Wages after Year 1 and after Year 10: Graduates from Popular Bachelor s Degree Programs in Texas Area of Study Time To Degree Wages Year 1 Wages Year 10 Years 1-10 growth Biology, General 5.30 $23,243 $81, % Psychology, General 5.24 $23,729 $54, % Criminal Justice and Corrections 5.56 $28,184 $55,025 95% Health and Physical Education/Fitness 5.64 $28,818 $58, % Marketing 5.05 $30,776 $78, % State wide university bachelors average Business Administration, Management and Operations 5.36 $31,016 $69, % 5.48 $31,816 $70, % Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other 5.63 $32,133 $49,315 53% Accounting and Related Services 5.70 $34,331 $76, % Finance and Financial Management Services Management Information Systems and Services 5.17 $34,392 $95, % 5.57 $34,813 $80, % For most majors: start low, end low; start high, end high

16 Most important take away Forget about the institution-level horse race Program, program, program That s the level at which we need data

17 Other Concluding Thoughts Labor markets vary across states, but there are some general lessons: The Bachelor s degree is a good investment on average but there s lots of variation in the payoff to that degree. Subbaccalaureate credentials are growing in popularity as they should CTE can pay off and yield middle class wages (but we need to know what are the hot jobs and the hot skills in the state s labor market).

18 Data Needs to Improve Are current data good enough as consumer information? Are current data good enough for performance based budgeting/accountability? Measurement issues Risk adjusted metrics Regional variation Economic cycles UI is more useful for consumers than regulators Federal solutions may not be on the horizon although we need to push for them.