Water- Agriculture- International Trade Nexus: Implications for Food Security in the context of Climate Change

Transcription

1 Third McGill Conference on Global Food Security Water- Agriculture- International Trade Nexus: Implications for Food Security in the context of Climate Change Pr Mohamed AIT KADI President of the General Council of Agricultural Development, Rabat, Morocco Chair of the Global Water Partnership Technical Committee Montréal, Canada, October 20, 2010

2 A Changing World Mohamed AITKADI GWP/TEC Cannot be solved by 1 country Problems are interconnected

3 Problems can t be solved by countries acting in isolation US$/ton Corn Wheat Rice Oil (right scale) US$/barrel 0 0 Source: von Braun 2008 with data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008.

4 Diverse policy responses to food crisis Asia Trade restriction Trade liberaliz. Consumer subsidy Social protection Bangladesh X X X X China X X X X India X X X X X Indonesia X X X Malaysia X X X Thailand X X X Latin America Argentina X X X X Brazil X X X Mexico X X X Peru X X X Venezuela X X X X Africa Egypt X X X X Ethiopia X X X X Ghana X X Kenya X Nigeria X X X Tanzania X X X Increase supply Source: von Braun 2008 with data from IMF, FAO, and news reports,,

5 The problems are interconnected Mohamed AITKADI GWP/TEC

6 Plan of this talk 1. Understanding the {Water-Agriculture- Trade} Nexus Morocco s Example 2. Climate Change: A Game Changer 3. What are the Implications for Food Security? 4. Conclusions 6

7 WATER-AGRICULTURE-TRADE NEXUS WATER Virtual Water Ground Water Depletion IWRM SS FS Blue/Green Water Productivity Rainfed / Irrigation WTO, Regional Bilateral Tag Ag. REFORMS AGRICULTURE TRADE Commercial / Non commercial Agriculture Super market revolution Commodity prices volatility Mohamed AITKADI GWP/TEC

8 «Toute chose étant aidée et aidante, causée et causante, je tiens pour impossible de connaitre le tout sans connaitre les parties et de connaitre les parties sans connaitre le tout..» Demography/Urbanization Economic Social Institutions/Governance Technology Solidarity

9 Morocco s Demographic Transition Millions Population 90 Rural 80 Urban 70 Urbanity ratio %

10 Morocco s Economic Transition Morocco s GDP (BDH) Structure of the Economy Share in GDP (%)

11 WATER-AGRICULTURE-TRADE NEXUS WATER Virtual Water Ground Water Depletion IWRM SS FS Blue/Green Water Productivity Rainfed / Irrigation WTO, Regional Bilateral Tag Ag. REFORMS AGRICULTURE TRADE Commercial / Non commercial Agriculture Super market revolution Commodity prices volatility Mohamed AITKADI GWP/TEC

12 Morocco is a highly water stressed country with erratic rainfall and frequent droughts. The country is reaching the end of the water development era. Water resources management is therefore shifting to the more difficult task of ensuring economically, socially and environmentally efficient water Sujets de discussion Présentez les principales idées que vous allez développer allocation within the existing water resources constraints.

13 Water resources endowment/distribution Renewable Water Resources m3/ca Rewable Water Resources/ca/RB m 3 /ca/year River Basins 7 9 Deficit/surplus Mm River Basins 13

14 Morroco s Water Issues & Constraints Water demand is growing fast; Water availability is falling to crisis levels; Overexploitation of groundwater Shortages are compounded by pollution Low water use efficiency in irrigation; Etc.

15 WATER-AGRICULTURE-TRADE NEXUS WATER Virtual Water Ground Water Depletion IWRM SS FS Blue/Green Water Productivity Rainfed / Irrigation WTO, Regional Bilateral Tag Ag. REFORMS TRADE Commercial / Non commercial Agriculture Super market revolution Commodity prices volatility AGRICULTURE Mohamed AITKADI GWP/TEC

16 LSI &SMSI in Morocco Loukkos Gharb Moulouya Océan Atlantique Doukkala Souss- Massa Haouz Tadla Tafilalet Ouarzazate Grands périmp rimètres d irrigation Périmètres de Petite et Moyenne Hydraulique

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18 Important Production Increases of Crop & Livestock Indices de la production des cultures et de l élevage

19 AG-GDP X

20 WATER-AGRICULTURE-TRADE NEXUS WATER Virtual Water Ground Water Depletion IWRM SS FS Blue/Green Water Productivity Rainfed / Irrigation WTO, Regional Bilateral Tag Ag. REFORMS AGRICULTURE TRADE Commercial / Non commercial Agriculture Super market revolution Commodity prices volatility Mohamed AITKADI GWP/TEC

21 TRADE Evolution Export-Import Agricoles Mille Dhs Import Agri Année ExportAgri

22 Sujets de discussion 10 9,5 9 Présentez les principales idées 8,5 que vous allez With its heavy dependence on imports of 8 7,5 développer 7 wheat, maize, oilseeds and energy for domestic consumption Morocco has been severely hit by rising world food and oil prices. This has raised serious concerns about food security, macroeconomic and social stability 11 10,5 6,5 6 FOOD IMPORTS/TOTAL IMPORTS (%) FOOD EXPORTS/FOOD IMPORTS

23 INTERNATIONAL TRADE The agricultural trading system is not yet neither truly global nor truly free. Developing countries still have difficult access to markets of developed countries. At present, developed countries provide trade distorting subsidies to their farmers and impose tariff barriers to developing countries exports that escalate with the value of the product. We need a trading system that draws on the expertise of every nation and returns to every nation a more diverse and above all secure supply of food.

24 Improved Access to Food 90 75,9 Source: HCP ,2 59,7 44,7 63,5 54,0 56,5 48,6 43,1 54,7 45,5 40,3 54,2 43,1 38,4 49,9 41,3 37,9 49,3 40,6 36,8 1959/ / / / / / /07 U/R 16,2 18,8 13,4 14,4 15, ,5 Rural National Urban

25 Nutrition Status Improved Kcal/pers/jour % PROTEINES GLUCIDES LIPIDES Urban Rural National

26 Plan of this talk 1. Understanding the {Water-Agriculture- Trade} Nexus Morocco s Example 2. Climate Change: A Game Changer 3. What are the Implications for reforms 4. Conclusions 26

27 Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099 Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099, scenario A1b, average of 21 GCMs (compiled by GIS Unit ICARDA, based on partial maps in Christensen et al., 2007)

28 Climate change impact on resources endowment & variability Model-Projected Runoff Change (%) [( )-( )] Coop (Milly et al., 2005) WS

29 Climate Shift 80s? Apports moyens 20 ans (hm3/an) Moyenne mobile 20 ans (série officielle) Loukkos+Laou Sebou Bouregreg Oum Er Rbia Tensift Moulouya Linéaire (Oum Er Rbia) ère année

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31 Plan of this talk 1. Understanding the {Water-Agriculture- Trade} Nexus Morocco s Example 2. Climate Change: A Game Changer 3. What are the Implications for reforms 4. Conclusions 31

32 Key Questions How much more irrigation does Morocco need to meet the future needs of a growing population? How to restructure consumption patterns from the present wasteful low value water intensive uses? How can farmers achieve a higher livelihood from every drop of water? What will the side effects on the rural community be by transferring water to cities? And what are the implications for food security? Does the import of food virtual water support food security and a more equitable and efficient allocation of water?

33 2 Reform strategy built around 2 Pillars «The Green Morocco» «GREEN MOROCCO» L'agriculture comme moteur majeur de développement économique et social Pilier II Pilier I Mise à niveau solidaire: Investissement social et lutte contre la pauvreté agricole Développement d une agriculture moderne: Investissement industriel à haute productivité/ valeur ajoutée Refonte du cadre sectoriel et amélioration des facteurs transversaux Foncier Eau ALE Marché national Doing business Interprofessio nnelles Refocalisation Ministère 33

34 Water Sector Reforms (1995/2009) The adoption of a long term strategy for an integrated water resources management; The development of a new legal and institutional framework to promote decentralized management and increase stakeholder participation; Introducing economic incentives in water allocation decisions through rational tariff and cost recovery; Taking capacity enhancing measures to meet institutional challenges for the management of water resources; and Establishing effective monitoring and control of water quality to reduce environmental degradation

35 The investment Programme Total expenditures in the water sector % GDP 2.9% GDP % GDP Irrigation Water Supply & Sanitation Hydroelectricity Water Mobilization

36 Upper Catchment Basin Agencies Irrigation agencies WUA/Farmers Evaporation Evapotranspiration Evaporation Watershed Reservoir Conveyance & Distribution System Farm Leaching Seepage Run off Deep percolation Seepage Operation Phreatophytes - * Reforestation * Water resource database * O. & M. and watershed* Decision support systems * Rehabilitation management * Coordination * Control * WUA Return flow and aquifer recharge * Cropping patterns * crop productivity. Irrigation technologies and practices.pricing

37 Plan of this talk 1. Understanding the {Water-Agriculture- Trade} Nexus Morocco s Example 2. Climate Change: A Game Changer 3. What are the Implications for reforms 4. Conclusions 37

38 WHAT SHOULD BE DONE? Create the capacity to strategically advance and promote national comparative advantage and competitiveness Establish an appropriate poliy framework and supportive linkages between sectors to ensure maximum effectiveness of development efforts Develop necessary managment and marketing skills and support services to enhance local development opportunities Develop dynamic market systems and complementary infrastructure services 38

39 Create market-driven technologies for achieving growth Utilize national resource managment practices to enhance sustainable use Develop alternative investment, growth and welfare strategies to expend rural well-being 39

40 RESPONSABILITIES OF DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Greater market access Eliminate trade-distorting domestic supports Increase financial assistance to agricultural and rural development Facilitate technology transfer