Trends in IPEDS Graduation, Transfer, Success, and Retention Rates for VCCS Colleges: Fall 2001 Cohort to Fall 2010 Cohort
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1 Trends in IPEDS Graduation, Transfer, Success, and Retention Rates for VCCS Colleges: Fall 2001 Cohort to Fall 2010 Cohort Research Report No Office of Institutional Research, Planning, and Assessment Northern Virginia Community College August 2014
2 NORTHERN VIRGINIA COMMUNITY COLLEGE OFFICE OF INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH, PLANNING, AND ASSESSMENT The purpose of the Office of Institutional Research, Planning, and Assessment is to conduct analytical studies and provide information in support of institutional planning, policy formulation and decision making. In addition, the office provides leadership and support in research related activities to members of the NOVA community engaged in planning and evaluating the institution s success in accomplishing its mission. When citing data from this report, the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Data Center must be cited as the source Wakefield Chapel Road Annandale, VA (703)
3 Table of Contents Introduction... 1 Section 1. Three-Year Graduation Rates: Fall 2001 through Fall 2010 Cohorts... 2 Section 2. Three-Year Transfer Rates: Fall 2001 through 2010 Cohorts... 4 Section 3. Three-Year Success Rates: Fall 2001 through 2010 Cohorts... 6 Section 4. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Full-Time Students: Fall 2001 through 2010 Cohorts... 8 Section 5. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Part-Time Students: Fall 2001 through 2010 Cohorts. 10 Appendix A. VCCS Three-Year Graduation Rates Appendix B. VCCS Three-Year Transfer Rates Appendix C. VCCS Three-Year Success Rates Appendix D. VCCS Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Full-Time Students Appendix E. VCCS Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Part-Time Students... 17
4 List of Tables Table 1. Three-Year Graduation Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students: NOVA and VCCS... 2 Table 2. Three-Year Transfer Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students: NOVA and VCCS... 4 Table 3. Three-Year Success Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students: NOVA and VCCS... 6 Table 4. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Full-Time Students: NOVA and VCCS... 8 Table 5. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Part-Time Students: NOVA and VCCS Table A. Three-Year Graduation Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2001 through Fall 2010 Cohorts Table B. Three-Year Transfer Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2001 through Fall 2010 Cohorts Table C. Three-Year Success Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students: Fall 2001 through Fall 2010 Cohorts Table D. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Full-Time Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2001 through Fall 2010 Cohorts Table E. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Part-Time Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2001 through Fall 2010 Cohorts ii
5 List of Figures Figure 1. Three-Year Graduation Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree or Certificate- Seeking Students: NOVA and VCCS... 2 Figure 2. Three-Year Graduation Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2010 Cohort... 3 Figure 3.Three-Year Transfer Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students: NOVA and VCCS... 4 Figure 4. Three-Year Transfer Rates among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2010 Cohort... 5 Figure 5. Three-Year Success Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students: NOVA and VCCS... 6 Figure 6. Three-Year Success Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2010 Cohort... 7 Figure 7. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Full-Time Students: NOVA and VCCS... 8 Figure 8. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Full-Time Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2010 Cohort... 9 Figure 9. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Part-Time Students: NOVA and VCCS Figure 10. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Part-Time Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2010 Cohort iii
6 Trends in IPEDS Graduation, Transfer, Success, and Retention Rates for VCCS Colleges: Fall 2001 Cohort to Fall 2010 Cohort Introduction This report presents data on graduation, transfer, success, and retention rates at the 23 community colleges within the Virginia Community College System (VCCS). The data were pulled from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Data Center ( and pertain to the Fall 2001 through the Fall 2010 cohorts. The purpose of this report is to compare the performance of Northern Virginia Community College (NOVA) to the overall performance of VCCS institutions. The following is a summary of the data: The data in this report reveal that in the VCCS, on average, three-year graduation rates have increased, three-year transfer rates have stayed relatively stable, three-year success rates have increased, fall-to-fall retention rates for full-time students have increased, and fall-to-fall retention rates for part-time students have slightly decreased. There were large differences in performance across colleges in the VCCS. For the 2010 cohort, the differences in percentage points between the highest attaining college and the lowest attaining college was 22 for three-year graduation rates, 15 for three-year transfer rates, 12 for three-year success rates, 21 for fall-to-fall retention rates for fulltime students, and 20 for fall-to-fall retention rates for part-time students. NOVA attained higher rates than the VCCS average in transfer, success, and retention rates. In the 2010 cohort, the most recent year available, NOVA attained the highest fallto-fall retention rates for both full-time and part-time students and the third highest transfer rate and success rate.
7 Section 1. Three-Year Graduation Rates: Fall 2001 through Fall 2010 Cohorts As shown in Table 1 and Figure 1, the three-year graduation rate at NOVA increased over the years, from 12 percent for the 2001 cohort to 23 percent for the 2010 cohort, which was an increase of 11 percentage points. The VCCS average increased from 15 percent for the 2001 cohort to 25 percent for the 2010 cohort, which was a 10 percentage point increase 1. NOVA s graduation rates were consistently below the VCCS average, except for the 2009 cohort, when VCCS averaged 21 percent and NOVA attained a graduation rate of 22 percent. Table 1. Three-Year Graduation Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students: NOVA and VCCS Grouping NOVA VCCS Average Difference from VCCS Average (% points) Figure 1. Three-Year Graduation Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree or Certificate-Seeking Students: NOVA and VCCS NOVA VCCS Average 30% Three-Year Graduation Rate 25% 20% 15% 10% 17% 16% 15% 12% 12% 12% 16% 16% 13% 13% 21% 22% 21% 22% 21% 16% 16% 18% 25% 23% 5% See Appendix A for complete list of three-year graduation rates by VCCS college. 2
8 Three-Year Graduation Rate Snapshot: Fall 2010 Cohort Figure 2 presents data on three-year graduation rates for the most recent cohort available, which is the 2010 cohort. NOVA attained a graduation rate of 23 percent. Figure 2. Three-Year Graduation Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate-Seeking Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2010 Cohort Southside Virginia Wytheville Lord Fairfax Southwest Virginia Rappahannock Patrick Henry Mountain Empire Piedmont Virginia Dabney S. Lancaster Eastern Shore Central Virginia Blue Ridge Virginia Highlands Paul D. Camp New River NOVA Germanna Danville Virginia Western 35% 33% 33% 32% 31% 29% 29% 27% 27% 26% 25% 25% 24% 24% 24% 23% 23% 23% 22% Thomas Nelson Tidewater John Tyler J. Sargeant Reynolds 16% 14% 14% 13% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Three-Year Graduation Rate 3
9 Section 2. Three-Year Transfer Rates: Fall 2001 through 2010 Cohorts As presented in Table 2 and Figure 3, at NOVA the three-year transfer rate fluctuated from 15 percent for the 2001 cohort to a low of 11 percent for the 2008 and 2009 cohorts and then increased to 16 percent for the 2010 cohort. The VCCS average transfer rate remained at or around 11 percent in the years presented 2. In the cohorts presented here, the NOVA average was equal to or above the VCCS average. Table 2. Three-Year Transfer Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students: NOVA and VCCS Grouping NOVA VCCS Average Difference from VCCS Average (% points) Figure 3.Three-Year Transfer Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students: NOVA and VCCS Three-Year Transfer Rate 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% NOVA VCCS Average 16% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% See Appendix B for complete list of three-year transfer rates by VCCS college. 4
10 Three-Year Transfer Rate Snapshot: Fall 2010 Cohort Shown in Figure 4, NOVA and J. Sargeant Reynolds tied for the third highest three-year transfer rate (16 percent). Figure 4. Three-Year Transfer Rates among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2010 Cohort Thomas Nelson 19% John Tyler NOVA J. Sargeant Reynolds Tidewater Virginia Western Eastern Shore Danville Germanna Dabney S. Lancaster New River Virginia Highlands Piedmont Virginia Paul D. Camp Central Virginia 17% 16% 16% 15% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% Patrick Henry Blue Ridge 9% 9% Rappahannock Lord Fairfax 8% 8% Wytheville 7% Southside Virginia 6% Southwest Virginia 5% Mountain Empire 4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Three-Year Transfer Rate 5
11 Section 3. Three-Year Success Rates: Fall 2001 through 2010 Cohorts Success rates presented in Table 3 and Figure 5 are calculated as the percentage of the firsttime, full-time cohort that either graduated or transferred within 150 percent of program time (three years). NOVA s success rate went from 27 percent for the 2001 cohort to 39 percent for the 2010 cohort, a 12 percentage point increase. The VCCS average went from 27 percent for the 2001 cohort to 36 percent for the 2010 cohort, a nine percentage point increase 3. NOVA s success rates were equal to or below the VCCS average until the 2009 cohort when NOVA surpassed the VCCS average. Table 3. Three-Year Success Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students: NOVA and VCCS Grouping NOVA VCCS Average Difference from VCCS Average (% points) Figure 5. Three-Year Success Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students: NOVA and VCCS NOVA VCCS Average 40% 39% Three-Year Success Rate 35% 30% 25% 20% 33% 27% 27% 29% 28% 27% 30% 27% 27% 27% 27% 25% 34% 32% 29% 29% 33% 32% 36% 15% See Appendix C for complete list of success rates by VCCS college. 6
12 Three-Year Success Rate Snapshot: Fall 2010 Cohort Achieving a success rate of 39 percent among its 2010 cohorts, NOVA tied with Rappahannock Community College for the third highest rate in the VCCS. Figure 6. Three-Year Success Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2010 Cohort Southside Virginia Lord Fairfax Wytheville Eastern Shore Dabney S. Lancaster Rappahannock NOVA Piedmont Virginia Patrick Henry Southwest Virginia Danville Virginia Western New River Germanna Central Virginia Virginia Highlands Thomas Nelson Paul D. Camp Blue Ridge Mountain Empire John Tyler Tidewater J. Sargeant Reynolds 41% 41% 40% 40% 40% 39% 39% 38% 38% 37% 37% 36% 36% 36% 36% 35% 35% 35% 34% 33% 31% 29% 29% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Three-Year Success Rate 7
13 Section 4. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Full-Time Students: Fall 2001 through 2010 Cohorts NOVA s fall-to-fall retention rate for full-time students was consistently above the VCCS average for all years presented, by at least seven percentage points and by as many as 14 percentage points for the 2009 cohort 4. Table 4. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Full-Time Students: NOVA and VCCS Grouping NOVA VCCS Average Difference from VCCS Average (% points) Figure 7. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Full-Time Students: NOVA and VCCS NOVA VCCS Average 75% 72% Fall-to-Fall Retention Rate 70% 65% 60% 55% 68% 65% 65% 56% 56% 55% 67% 65% 58% 58% 70% 61% 68% 59% 69% 60% 58% 70% 61% 50% See Appendix D for complete list of fall-to-fall retention rates for full-time students by VCCS college. 8
14 Fall-to-Fall Retention for Full-Time Students Snapshot: Fall 2010 Cohort Figure 8 displays fall-to-fall retention rates for the Fall 2010 cohort. The 2010 cohorts for NOVA and Lord Fairfax attained a 70 percent fall-to-fall retention rate for full-time students, the highest rate within the VCCS. Figure 8. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Full-Time Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2010 Cohort NOVA Lord Fairfax Virginia Highlands Blue Ridge Southside Virginia Piedmont Virginia Danville Mountain Empire J. Sargeant Reynolds Germanna Dabney S. Lancaster Wytheville Tidewater Thomas Nelson Virginia Western Southwest Virginia Patrick Henry John Tyler New River Rappahannock Central Virginia Paul D. Camp Eastern Shore 70% 70% 66% 66% 63% 63% 63% 62% 61% 61% 61% 60% 60% 60% 59% 59% 59% 58% 57% 56% 55% 54% 49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Fall-to-Fall Retention Rate 9
15 Section 5. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Part-Time Students: Fall 2001 through 2010 Cohorts NOVA was one of the seven colleges that increased fall-to-fall retention rates for part-time students between the Fall 2001 cohort and the Fall 2010 cohort. NOVA attained a higher fall-tofall retention rate for part-time students than the VCCS average in all years studied, 5 as shown in Table 5 and Figure 9. Table 5. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Part-Time Students: NOVA and VCCS Grouping NOVA VCCS Average Difference from VCCS Average (% points) Figure 9. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Part-Time Students: NOVA and VCCS NOVA VCCS Average 50% 48% 50% 48% 49% Fall-to-Fall Retention Rate 45% 40% 43% 40% 42% 39% 43% 38% 44% 39% 42% 38% 42% 45% 39% 39% 39% 38% 35% See Appendix E for complete list of fall-to-fall retention rates for part-time students by VCCS college. 10
16 Fall-to-Fall Retention for Part-Time Students Snapshot: Fall 2010 Cohort Shown in Figure 10, NOVA s Fall 2010 cohort attained a 45% Fall-to-Fall retention rate among part-time students, the highest rate within VCCS. Figure 10. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Part-Time Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2010 Cohort NOVA Virginia Western Piedmont Virginia Central Virginia Lord Fairfax Germanna Rappahannock Patrick Henry Danville Wytheville J. Sargeant Reynolds Thomas Nelson Southside Virginia New River John Tyler Dabney S. Lancaster Virginia Highlands Southwest Virginia Eastern Shore Blue Ridge Tidewater 45% 43% 43% 43% 42% 42% 41% 41% 41% 40% 39% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 37% 37% 37% 37% 36% Mountain Empire Paul D. Camp 26% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Fall-to-Fall Retention Rate 11
17 APPENDICES
18 Appendix A. VCCS Three-Year Graduation Rates Three-year graduation rates at VCCS fluctuated but followed an increasing trend across all colleges. Table A. Three-Year Graduation Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate-Seeking Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2001 through Fall 2010 Cohorts Institution Year Change Blue Ridge Central Virginia Dabney S. Lancaster Danville Eastern Shore Germanna J. Sargeant Reynolds John Tyler Lord Fairfax Mountain Empire New River NOVA Patrick Henry Paul D. Camp Piedmont Virginia Rappahannock Southside Virginia Southwest Virginia Thomas Nelson Tidewater Virginia Highlands Virginia Western Wytheville VCCS Average
19 Appendix B. VCCS Three-Year Transfer Rates Table B presents three-year transfer rates for first-time, full-time students for the Fall 2001 through Fall 2010 cohorts. Transfer rates have fluctuated within the VCCS. The 10 year change, measuring the percentage point difference between the 2001 cohort and the 2010 cohort, shows that transfer rates increased at 12 colleges, decreased at nine colleges, and remained the same at two colleges. Table B. Three-Year Transfer Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2001 through Fall 2010 Cohorts Institution Year Change Blue Ridge Central Virginia Dabney S. Lancaster Danville Eastern Shore Germanna J.Sargeant Reynolds John Tyler Lord Fairfax Mountain Empire New River NOVA Patrick Henry Paul D. Camp Piedmont Virginia Rappahannock Southside Virginia Southwest Virginia Thomas Nelson Tidewater Virginia Highlands Virginia Western Wytheville VCCS Average
20 Appendix C. VCCS Three-Year Success Rates Table C presents three-year success rates in the VCCS. Success rates are calculated as the percentage of the first-time, full-time cohort that either graduated or transferred within 150 percent of program time, which is three years. The 10-year change, which is the percentage point difference between the Fall 2001 and Fall 2010 cohorts, increased or stayed the same at all colleges except Eastern Shore Community College. Despite fluctuations at all colleges, the VCCS average success rate increased by nine percentage points from 27 percent for the Fall 2001 cohort to 36 percent for the Fall 2010 cohort. Table C. Three-Year Success Rates Among First-Time, Full-Time Degree- or Certificate- Seeking Students: Fall 2001 through Fall 2010 Cohorts Institution Year Change Blue Ridge Central Virginia Dabney S. Lancaster Danville Eastern Shore Germanna J. Sargeant Reynolds John Tyler Lord Fairfax Mountain Empire New River NOVA Patrick Henry Paul D. Camp Piedmont Virginia Rappahannock Southside Virginia Southwest Virginia Thomas Nelson Tidewater Virginia Highlands Virginia Western Wytheville VCCS Average
21 Appendix D. VCCS Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Full-Time Students The VCCS average Fall-to-Fall retention rate for full-time students was 56 percent for the Fall 2001 cohort and 61 percent for the Fall 2010 cohort, a five percentage point increase. Between the Fall 2001 and Fall 2010 cohort, retention rates increased at most colleges. Table D. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Full-Time Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2001 through Fall 2010 Cohorts Institution Year Change Blue Ridge Central Virginia Dabney S. Lancaster Danville Eastern Shore Germanna J. Sargeant Reynolds John Tyler Lord Fairfax Mountain Empire New River NOVA Patrick Henry Paul D. Camp Piedmont Virginia Rappahannock Southside Virginia Southwest Virginia Thomas Nelson Tidewater Virginia Highlands Virginia Western Wytheville VCCS Average
22 Appendix E. VCCS Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Part-Time Students For the Fall 2001 through Fall 2010 cohorts, fall-to-fall retention rates for part-time students fluctuated across VCCS institutions, increasing at only 7 of 23 colleges. The VCCS average 10- year change amounted to a decrease of two percentage points. Table E. Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates for Part-Time Students by VCCS Institution: Fall 2001 through Fall 2010 Cohorts Institution Year Change Blue Ridge Central Virginia Dabney S. Lancaster Danville Eastern Shore Germanna J. Sargeant Reynolds John Tyler Lord Fairfax Mountain Empire New River NOVA Patrick Henry Paul D. Camp Piedmont Virginia Rappahannock Southside Virginia Southwest Virginia Thomas Nelson Tidewater Virginia Highlands Virginia Western Wytheville VCCS Average
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