Understanding the Coastal Ecosystem-Based Management Approach in the Gulf of Mexico

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1 Journal of Coastal Research SI Coconut Creek, Florida 2013 Understanding the Coastal Ecosystem-Based Management Approach in the Gulf of Mexico Alejandro Yáñez-Arancibia, John W. Day, and Enrique Reyes Instituto de Ecología A. C. Red Ambiente y Sustentabilidad Unidad Ecosistemas Costeros Xalapa 91070, Veracruz, México Alejandro.yanez@inecol.edu.mx Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences Louisiana State University Baton Rouge, LA 70803, U.S.A. Institute for Coastal Science and Policy Department of Biology East Carolina University Greenville, NC 27858, U.S.A. ABSTRACT Yáñez-Arancibia, A.; Day, J.W., and Reyes, E., Understanding the coastal ecosystem-based management approach in the Gulf of Mexico. In: Brock, J.C.; Barras, J.A., and Williams, S.J. (eds.), Understanding and Predicting Change in the Coastal Ecosystems of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 63, pp , Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is a shared ecosystem in which problems and solutions are a common responsibility among governments, primarily the United States and Mexico. Concepts about management of coastal systems suggest that GOM ecosystem-based management approaches should be coupled with ecological risk assessment and that quantitative modeling is a valuable tool for ecosystem-based management, which results in sound sustainable management. Sustainable management requires the consideration of a number of processes and issues. These include definition of ecological regions, description of processes controlling primary productivity, wetland restoration and coastal fisheries, and an understanding that pulsing is a fundamental characteristic of coastal systems, that climate change must be taken into consideration in management, and that environmental sustainability and socioeconomic development are strongly related. Throughout the 6,134 km of coastline stretching from Florida to Quintana Roo, there are several major geographic regions that include the warm-temperate GOM, the tropical GOM, and the Caribbean coast connected to the GOM. Within each geographic region, discrete complex systems can be defined as geographic/hydrological subregions, characterized by the interactions of geology, geomorphology, oceanography, climate, freshwater input, biogeochemistry, coastal vegetation, wildlife, estuary-shelf interactions, and human factors. We conclude: (a) system functioning should serve as a basis for sustainable coastal management; and (b) to sustain environmental and socioeconomic conditions, the GOM must be maintained as a healthy, productive, and resilient ecosystem. The challenge for future coastal management in the GOM should be towards an integration of coastal management with large marine ecosystem management. ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Ecosystem functioning, conceptual model, pulsing events, integrated coastal management, large marine ecosystem management. Background INTRODUCTION Geographically the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is a shared resource among Mexico, the United States, and Cuba, but because of their size, location, and impact, Mexico and the U.S. bear the primary responsibility for management of the GOM. According to the Large Marine Ecosystems (LME) of the World Programme from the World Conservation Union (IUCN), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) from the U.S., and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) from the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the GOM is LME No. 5 under the responsibility of both Mexico and the United States; and LME No. 12 is under the responsibility of Caribbean countries, Cuba included (www. DOI: /SI received 24 July 2011; accepted 29 April Coastal Education & Research Foundation 2013 edc.uri.edu/lme). The GOM is at severe risk due to the following major problems: (a) freshwater use and shortages, (b) pollution, (c) habitat modifications and wetland loss, (d) unsustainable development of living resources, (e) global climate change, (f) lack of adequate public education about the value of the Gulf, and (g) weak political interest in its environmental quality (Yáñez-Arancibia and Day, 2004a). Because of these problems, scientific and technological requirements for sustainable use of resources are strongly changing the perception of policy makers from the initial focus of integrated coastal management that has prevailed for the past 25 years. That focus was on the economic development of the coastal zone but with a large amount of ecological and social uncertainty. In the 21 st century, the main goal should be to maintain healthy, productive, and resilient conditions in the coastal zone in order to provide the services to satisfy human needs in a sustainable manner. In order to accomplish this, the functional structure of coastal ecosystems should be the basis for sustainable management. In this paper we focus on how ecosystem-based management can inform integrated coastal management. Coastal environmental management for the GOM requires

2 244 Yáñez-Arancibia, Day, and Reyes timely and appropriate integration of coastal management with large marine ecosystem management (Cicin-Sain and Knecht, 1998; Cicin-Sain et al., 1993; Clark, 1996; Kumpf, Steidinger, and Sherman, 1999; Olsen, 1999, 2003; Yáñez-Arancibia and Day, 2004a, 2004b). This requires (1) technological intervention as part of a science-based strategy to address a host of interrelated environmental problems (Day et al., 2004b, 2005; Harwell et al., 1999; Mitsch et al., 2001), (2) the integration of energetic/ ecological pulsing into management decisions as the basis for sustainable coastal management (Day et al., 1995, 1997, 2005; Junk, 1999; Junk, Bayley, and Sparks, 1989; Yáñez-Arancibia et al., 2007a, 2007b), (3) ecological modeling to interpret and address present and future scenarios integrating ecological and economic constraints on environmental quality (Gentile et al., 2001; Harwell, Myers, and Young, 1996; Ko and Day, 2004; Martin et al., 2000; Reyes et al., 2000, 2004; Twilley et al., 1998; Vidal and Pauly, 2004), (4) the use of discrete geographic/ hydrological subregions as regional management tools (Bianchi, Pennock, and Twilley, 1999; Frugé, 1999; USFWS, 1995; Yáñez-Arancibia and Day, 2004a, 2004b), and (5) the integration of multiple system components and uses (Yáñez- Arancibia, 2005). This approach will help identify and strive for sustainable outcomes, avoid deleterious actions, and achieve adaptive management based on comparative experiences of critical areas to achieve effective ecosystem-based management solutions (Boesch, 2006; Costanza, 1992; Day and Yáñez- Arancibia, 2012; Pauly et al., 1999). This is the current scientific understanding of coastal-marine ecosystem management in the GOM, and explains how this knowledge shapes the necessity for a new management approach. The ecosystem approach as a management tool is based on healthy ecosystem functioning coupled with environmental sustainability of socioeconomic development in the coastal zone (Levin et al., 2009; Lindenmayer et al., 2008). Ecosystem-based management in the GOM requires a new management approach that addresses more effective governance, improved science for decision making, and strengthened educational programs of the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management actions, environmental stressors, energetic pulsing, and socioeconomic/ecological effects (Granek et al., 2009), and to provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses for ecosystem functioning of the coastal zone in the GOM. Models are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and coastal ecosystem recovery. In the United States, environmental regulatory policy and decision making for the GOM has evolved over the past several decades to rely upon technology-based (USEPA/SAB, 1990a, 1990b), biogeochemical-based (Bianchi, Pennock, and Twilley, 1999), and more recently, biologically-based criteria (Gentile et al., 2001; Kumpf, Steidinger, and Sherman, 1999). By contrast, decision making for the GOM in Mexico has been strongly influenced by administrative sectorial-based and biologicallybased criteria, such as endangered species, invasive species, and natural protected area regulatory policy (Bezaury-Creel, 2005; INE/SEMARNAT, 2000; Yáñez-Arancibia et al., 1999; Zárate Lomelí et al., 2012). Historically in both countries, environmental regulation has predominantly relied on command and control strategies that focus on single resources and often affect only one, or at most, a few species. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency s Science Advisory Board, in its landmark report on Reducing Risk (USEPA/SAB, 1990a, 1990b), demonstrated that the greatest risk to the environment tends to result from physical disturbances, such as habitat alteration or climate change, rather than simple single-chemical exposures or human pressure on a specific species, and where these disturbances affect whole watersheds or regions, rather than just individual populations. Consequently, there is a growing recognition that while historical environmental decision-making strategies have resulted in a significant improvement in the health of the environment over the past three decades, a new paradigm based on risk-based principles and ecosystem functioning is needed for dealing with the next generation of environmental problems (Day et al., 1997). In the GOM, regional and landscape-scale assessment, involving cumulative risk from multiple stressors affecting a diversity of ecological resources, poses unique regulatory and scientific challenges (Day et al., 2005; Reyes et al., 2004). Unlike the command-control and technology-based approaches, regulatory decisions at regional scales should be geared toward ecological outcomes, that is, based on the resulting health of the environment rather than just on controlling individual resources or pollutants (Day et al., 2004a; Day, Yáñez-Arancibia, and Mitsch, 2009). This complicates the environmental decisionmaking process significantly, since attainment of a particular technology standard may or not may achieve the desired ecological result. Thus, the ecosystem approach requires making more explicit choices about desired ecological quality, and considerably expands the need to examine a broader suite of potential management options that could be implemented to attain the desired ecosystem-based goals (Boesch, 2006; Day and Yáñez-Arancibia, 2012; Lindenmayer et al., 2008; Norgaard, 2010; Yáñez-Arancibia and Day, 2004a, 2004b; Yáñez- Arancibia, Day, and Currie-Alder, 2009; Yáñez-Arancibia et al., 2009). Objectives Flagship ecosystems in the GOM are the focus of national and international attention given their ecological and economic value, current degraded and threatened status, and growing environmental risk due to urban expansion and global climatic change as well as other factors (Table 1). The purpose of this paper is to synthesize information on critical coastal areas in the GOM from the Florida peninsula to the Yucatan peninsula (Figure 1, Table 1), analyze ecological and energetic pulsing of ecosystems, and illustrate the application of ecosystem-based management and ecological risk assessmentbased approaches for the mosaic of interconnected landscapes and coastal ecosystems that comprise the GOM. The conceptual model process is used as a template for structuring an integrated regional assessment within an ecosystem-based management framework. The following specific objectives are addressed: Describe the gradient of ecologic pulsing from north to south in the GOM. Describe controls on primary production and water fertility in the coastal zone.

3 Ecosystem-Based Management in the Gulf of Mexico 245 Table 1. Some examples of typical habitat diversity in Gulf of Mexico coastal ecosystems. There is high habitat diversity that includes salt, brackish, and freshwater wetlands, coastal plain ecosystems, coastal lagoons, estuaries, lower river basins, deltaic systems, mangroves, and coral reefs. Description Examples in U.S. Examples in México Semiarid lagoon systems, marine processes dominate, low freshwater inflow, sea grasses, dwarf mangroves, salinity at or near Gulf salinities and low variability at all time scales Intermediate systems (*), nonriver dominated, salinity controlled by multiple factors and variable at yearly time scales, river flow and tidal flow are similar Laguna Madre, Texas Corpus Christi Bay, Texas Sarasota Bay, Florida Galveston Bay, Texas Calcacieu Lake, Louisiana Sabine Lake, Louisiana and Texas (partially) Laguna Madre, Tamaulipas Celestun Lagoon, Yucatan Holbox Lagoon, Yucatan Tamiahua Lagoon, Veracruz La Mancha Lagoon, Veracruz River-dominated systems, coastal processes dominated by high freshwater inflow, important estuarine plume, broad coastal wetlands, low to medium salinity variability at yearly time scales Karstic systems, marine processes dominate, but significant ground water discharge, dwarf mangroves, occasionally some well-developed mangrove patch, well-developed sea grasses Atchafalaya Delta, Louisiana Mobile Bay, Alabama Apalachicola Bay, Florida Barataria Bay, Louisiana Lake Ponchartrain, Louisiana Mississippi Delta Sabine Lake, Louisiana and Texas (partially) Florida Bay, Florida Everglades system, Florida Alvarado Lagoon and Papaloapan Delta, Veracruz Centla Wetlands and Terminos Lagoon in Grijalva Usumacinta Delta, Tabasco and Campeche Northern Yucatan lagoons Quintana Roo coastal system Sian Ka an lagoon system Coral reefs systems (*) Florida Keys reef system Yucatan peninsula reefs Veracruz reef system (*) Intermediate systems are strongly dependent on climate cycle, and some examples could be considered as examples either in this group or in the river-dominated systems, depending on the climatic seasonal period (Deegan et al., 1986; Bianchi, Pennock, and Twilley, 1999). (**) Coral reef from Florida, Veracruz, Yucatan peninsula (Campeche, Yucatan, and Quintana Roo states) are considered to be part of the coastal zone ecosystems in CEC/ NAAEC (2009). Analyze the vulnerability of the coastal zone to global climatic change. Describe solutions for coastal wetland and ecosystem restoration. Analyze reasons for variability of coastal fish resources. Analyze the limits for the economic development of the coastal zone as a function of ecological integrity. Discuss why it is necessary to couple integrated coastal management with large marine ecosystem management. STUDY AREA First we describe ecological regions in the Gulf because they reflect the varying conditions around the Gulf and set the stage for coastal management. Ecologically these subregions are a way of viewing the regions of the coastal zone (Figure 1, Table 1). They have been developed to enhance the capability of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), governmental organizations, academics, and other stakeholders to assess conditions and trends of the major ecosystems, mainly as a management tool for defining priority actions towards sustainable development (Yáñez-Arancibia and Day, 2004a). The subregions recognize macro geographical regions: A the warm temperate Gulf, B the tropical Gulf, and C the Caribbean coast of Mexico adjacent to the Gulf. Region A includes almost the entire U.S. portion of the GOM and the northern part of the state of Tamaulipas, and is influenced by warm-temperate GOM conditions due to the seasonal climate regime, characterized by tropical currents in summer and cooler water temperature during the winter. Region B corresponds entirely to the Mexican area in the warmer southern GOM, including the states of Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, and Yucatán, as well as the southern end of the Florida peninsula. Climate change may increase the area of the tropical zone where, for example, mangroves are spreading along the fringes of the Mississippi delta. Region C corresponds to the state of Quintana Roo in the Mexican Caribbean, along the eastern Yucatan peninsula, which is the northern extent of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System, the second largest reef system in the world. Figure 1 synthesizes the ecological subregions described in previous paragraphs. These subregions were developed based on various sources (CEC/NAAEC, 1997, 2002; Yáñez-Arancibia and Day, 2004a, 2004b; Yáñez-Arancibia et al., 2003, 2007b). Each subregion can be viewed as a discrete system which results from the interaction of geologic, geomorphologic, oceanographic, climatic, freshwater drainage, physical chemical, coastal vegetation, fauna, estuary shelf interactions, and human factors. It is clear from Figure 1 that there is a significant correspondence between global marine ecological regions and hydrological units. The marine ecological regions were defined based on CEC/ NAAEC (2002; i.e., WT, TG, CCG) (Figure 1). The terrestrial ecological regions were defined as reported by CEC/NAAEC (1997; i.e., 8.5 The Mississippi Alluvial and Southeastern Coastal Plain, 9.5 Texas-Louisiana Coastal Plain, 14.1 The Gulf of Mexico Dry Coastal Plains and Hills, 14.2 Northwestern Plain of the Yucatan Peninsula, 15.1 Gulf of Mexico Humid Coastal

4 246 Yáñez-Arancibia, Day, and Reyes Figure 1. Diagram of the Gulf of Mexico indicating geographic/ hydrologic ecosystem units. The diagram has been redrawn for linking the terrestrial ecological regions as suggested by CEC/NAAEC (1997) and the global marine regions suggested by CEC/NAAEC (2002). Plain and Hills, 15.2 Plain and Hills of the Yucatan Peninsula, 15.3 Sierra de los Tuxtlas, and 15.4 Everglades. Hydrologic units include WF, MR, TUSMEX, UGD, and CCM) (Figure 1). Although several alternative classifications have characterized ecological subregions in the GOM (CEC/NAAEC, 1997, 2002, 2009; Frugé, 1999; Omernik, 2003; Omernik and Bailey, 1997; USFWS, 1995; Yáñez-Arancibia and Day, 2004a, 2004b), there is not a single ecological classification scheme that provides an ideal framework for coupling environment conditions with economic activities. However, the geographic units proposed by CEC/NAAEC (2002, 2009), Frugé (1999), and USFWS (1995), and the hydrologic units proposed by Yáñez-Arancibia et al. (2003) and Yáñez-Arancibia and Day (2004b), are advances in this framework process towards coastal management in the GOM from an ecosystem approach perspective. When the concept of hydrological units and ecological subregions is applied to the GOM, we can identify five large areas with international importance for both the U.S. and Mexico: 1) the western Florida rivers and groundwater discharge system, 2) the Mississippi River basin and delta, 3) the Texas estuaries and Laguna Madre in the U.S. Mexico integrated by the Rio Bravo/Rio Grande River and delta, 4) the Usumacinta/ Grijalva River basin and delta, and 5) the Rio Hondo-Chetumal Bay in the Caribbean coast of Mexico. The ecosystem approach from the perspective of geographic/ hydrologic ecosystem units addresses the GOM directly and also helps to identify coastal habitats where economic activities impact living resources between inland and GOM coastal habitats, and the ecological connections among mainland drainage, estuaries, and coastal marine areas on the continental shelf. It also addresses the GOM indirectly as the coastal and nearshore habitats are affected by water quality and quantity of streams entering coastal waters. For example, it recognizes a link between midwestern farming practices and fisheries productivity in the GOM (Mitsch et al., 2001). Erosion and nutrient runoff, natural or induced, result in sediment transported downstream in the Mississippi and Usumacinta Rivers (Day et al., 2003). These sediments and nutrients contribute to maintenance and accretion of coastal wetlands, which are vital as nursery areas for coastal ecological integrity and the positive effect on biodiversity and fisheries (Day et al., 2003; Sánchez-Gil and Yáñez-Arancibia, 1997; Yáñez-Arancibia, Day, and Currie-Alder, 2009; Yáñez- Arancibia et al., 2007b, 2009). At the same time, excess nutrients that enter the system that are not trapped by marsh-building processes contribute to anoxic bottom conditions in the GOM both in the U.S. and Mexico (Rabalais, Turner, and Wiseman, 1999; Yáñez-Arancibia et al., 2007b). In the United States Gulf coast area, estuaries can be loosely divided into three regions using geological, climatologic, biogeochemical, and physical characteristics (Bianchi, Pennock, and Twilley, 1999): (1) the eastern Gulf, extending from Florida Bay to the Suwannee River, (2) the northern Gulf, extending from Apalachicola Bay to the Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bays, and (3) the western Gulf, extending from Calcasieu Lake to the Lower Laguna Madre. In the Mexican Gulf coast area, estuaries and associated coastal lagoons can also be divided into three regions based on levels of aquatic primary productivity, climatic water budget, physical chemical gradients, and trophic structure (Day et al., 2004a; Yáñez-Arancibia, 2004; Yáñez-Arancibia et al., 2007b): (1) the western Gulf, from Laguna Madre Texas/Tamaulipas to the Tamiahua Lagoon, (2) the southern Gulf, from Alvarado Lagoon and Papaloapan Delta to the Centla Wetlands and Terminos Lagoon in the Grijalva-Usumacinta Delta, and (3) the northern and eastern Yucatan peninsula coast. None of the classifications mentioned above are exclusive, but complementary. From our own experience, and from our vision considering the GOM as one global ecosystem instead of two ecosystems politically separated, five general categories of coastal ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico can be identified for the coastal-marine scenario (Table 1). These include: (1) marinedominated semiarid lagoon-estuarine systems, (2) nonriverdominated intermediate systems, (3) river-dominated systems having strong interaction with coastal processes, (4) marine process-dominated karstic systems, and (5) coral reef systems. ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT COUPLED WITH ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT Over the last decade, two paradigms have emerged seeking to address proper management of the GOM: ecological risk assessment and ecosystem-based management (Boesch, 1999, 2001, 2006; Boesch et al., 2001; Day and Yáñez-Arancibia, 2012; Yáñez-Arancibia and Day, 2004a, 2004b). Ecological risk assessment is defined as the process for evaluating the likelihood of adverse ecological effects occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors (Gentile et al., 1993; Ortiz Pérez and Méndez Linares, 2004; USEPA, 1992, 1998). Ecosystembased management provides a framework for achieving a mutually dependent, sustainable society and environment by

5 Ecosystem-Based Management in the Gulf of Mexico 247 focusing on human and natural systems interactions at regional and intergenerational time scales (Boesch, 2006; Christensen, Bartuska, and Brown, 1996; Collins et al., 2010; Grumbine, 1994; Harwell, Myers, and Young, 1996; Levin et al., 2009). The goal of ecosystem-based management is to maintain an ecosystem in healthy, productive, and resilient conditions so that it can provide the services humans want and need. The guiding principles for ecosystem-based management are based on the idea that ocean and coastal resources should be managed to reflect the relationships among all ecosystem components, including humans and nonhuman species, the environment in which they live, and physical, biological and socioeconomic interrelationships (Dolan, 2011; Slocombe, 1998). The expected outcome of the ecosystem-based management approach is more effective governance, improved science transfer for decision making, and strengthened educational programs for ICZM. Ecological-risk assessment is an integral component of ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management and ecological-risk assessment consider the human ecological system as a single unit and seek to sustain desired ecological outcomes at specified levels of environmental sustainability and health (Boesch, 2006; Christensen, Bartuska, and Brown, 1996; Day and Yáñez-Arancibia, 2012; Gentile et al., 2001; Harwell, Myers, and Young, 1996). The ecosystem management process is designed to adapt human/environment interactions to achieve these ecological and societal sustainability goals (Collins et al., 2010). Decisionmaking is facilitated by characterizing the ecological risk or consequences of alternative policies in the context of these sustainability goals. The successful implementation of ecosystem-based management is, in part, based on using a risk-based process to identify the causal linkages among land uses, stressors, and ecological effects in order to base management decisions on sound science and specific societal goals for ecological restoration. Ecological-risk assessment provides a systematic process for identifying, organizing, and analyzing diverse environmental information to produce qualitative or quantitative statements that assess the magnitude and probability of adverse effects (USEPA, 1992, 1998). Progressive concepts of ecological-risk assessment have, at their core, two main elements: (1) stress regime characterization, and (2) ecological effects characterization. Four common principles are emphasized to achieve effective management: (1) an integration among components of the ecosystem and resource uses and others, (2) lead to sustainable results over time, (3) avoidance of deleterious actions, and (4) adaptive strategies to implement more effective approaches based on experience. Based on a case study of the Chesapeake Bay and coastal Louisiana, Boesch (2006) concluded ecosystem-based management can be advanced by: (1) orienting more scientific activity to provide the solutions needed for ecosystem restoration, (2) building bridges across scientific management barriers to more effectively integrate science and management, (3) directing more attention to understanding and predicting achievable restoration outcomes that consider possible state changes and ecosystem resilience, (4) improving the capacity of science to characterize and effectively communicate uncertainty, and (5) fully integrating modeling, observations, and research to facilitate more adaptive management. This is the ecosystembased management approach discussed by Yáñez-Arancibia et al., (2011) when analyzing the coastal lagoons and estuaries in the wider Caribbean to conclude that ecosystem-based management is a tool for social and economic development and any such ecosystem-based management program should: (a) reduce the market distortions that affect biological diversity, (b) align incentives to promote biodiversity conservation and sustainable use, (c) internalize costs and benefits in the ecosystem to the extent feasible, (d) understand the habitat gradients concept in the coastal zone and how they apply to the ecosystem-based management approach, and (e) be aware that only management based on ecosystem integrity and functioning is successful and sustainable. USE OF CONCEPTUAL MODELS FOR ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT Conceptual models can be useful tools in capturing scientific understanding of an ecosystem and its response to natural and anthropogenic stressors. The process of building such conceptual models necessitates the engagement of the scientific community in an important dialog to articulate more clearly the individual perspectives of scientists regarding how an ecosystem functions and responds to stress. A conceptual model can be extremely effective for communicating to nonscientists and to scientists who have not previously focused on the environmental problem at hand (Gentile et al., 2001; Lindenmayer et al., 2008). Furthermore, the conceptual model development process will identify the most important uncertainties about the ecosystem (Nobre, 2009; Reyes et al., 2000). Finally, a conceptual model can be an extremely useful management tool for thinking through the potential efficacy of management options (Carpenter et al., 2009; Collins et al., 2010; Levin et al., 2009; Yáñez-Arancibia and Day, 2004b). The key ecosystems as presented in Table 1 indicate the spatial, temporal, and ecological scales occurring across the latitudinal gradient in the GOM. Incorporating the role of energetic pulsing into conceptual models (Day et al., 1997; Deegan et al., 1986, 1994) is important for a comprehensive understanding of the response of coastal ecosystems along the environmental gradient around the GOM. Pulsing is the idea that coastal systems are sustained by a series of energetic forcings or pulsing events that occur over different spatial and temporal scales. Those pulses include shifting deltaic lobes, great river floods, hurricanes, annual river floods, frontal passages, and tides (Day et al., 1995, 1997). The variability of these pulsing events changes around the Gulf coast based on such factors as the temperate to tropical gradient (Sturges and Lugo-Fernandez, 2005), freshwater input (Day et al., 1997; Yáñez-Arancibia, Day, and Currie-Alder, 2009), the nature of the geologic substrate (Kumpf, Steidinger, and Sherman, 1999), the size of watershed (Day et al., 2003, 2005), and the topographic gradient (CEC/NAAEC, 1997, 2002, 2009). Thus, for the coastal mosaic of biocomplex ecosystems of the GOM, conceptual models are a practical management tool, which can be viewed as qualitative or quantitative statements of hypotheses concerning the nature of ecological risk and ecosystem functioning. It is clear that models will vary with environmental

6 248 Yáñez-Arancibia, Day, and Reyes variability across the latitudinal gradient of the Gulf (Figure 1, and Figures 3 and 4 explained in the next sections). Table 1 presents a general description of the main processes illustrating the nature of the typical gradients of ecosystem characterization and functioning and Figure 1 presents the major geographic subunits. Conceptual models can be developed to illustrate these activities, processes, and stressor-response relationships (Table 1) as they vary across the various subunits (Figure 1, and Figures 3 and 4). Thus, a conceptual model of the northern GOM could be applied to the similar gradient in the southern GOM. Regardless of the application, conceptual models should be incorporated into all types of assessment and recovery activities as a tool for describing the causal relationships among land uses, stressors, valued ecological resources at risk, and their associated endpoints and indicators. Figures 2A, B, and C show how physical, biological, and socioeconomic activities are interrelated in causing impacts on the natural system. For example, levees are constructed to protect economic activities. The levees cause changes in the sediment budget and hydrology of the coastal zone, which in turn leads to impacts on biological dynamics such as reduced plant productivity. Thus, the stress regimes affecting the GOM include both natural and anthropogenic stressors. The natural sources of stress include such factors as hurricanes, droughts, freezes, fires, sea-level rise, and seasonal and interannual variability in river discharge, winds, and precipitation. Anthropogenic factors include the modification of habitats and hydrology, nutrient enrichment, overharvesting, recreation, toxic chemicals, and climate change. While hurricanes, droughts, and fires have been major sources of natural stressors shaping the landscape, society s need for water during droughts and protection from floods became the focal point for the development of a comprehensive water-management plan. Such a water-management system of canals, pumping stations, and levees has become a major anthropogenic source of physical stress to this system. It is responsible for draining and fragmenting habitat, wetland loss, altering the natural pattern of water storage, release, and flows of freshwater throughout the coastal zone landscape, and ultimately impacting freshwater marsh, coastal freshwater forested wetlands, saline marsh, and mangrove landscapes, as was shown for Florida (Gentile et al., 2001), Louisiana (Day et al., 2005, 2007a), and Mexico (Day et al., 2007b; Yáñez-Arancibia et al., 2007b). Conceptual models can help clarify these types of anthropogenic and natural process interactions. Construction of reservoirs, sedimentation in inland stream channels, more frequent floods, and changes in stream slopes contribute to a higher hydrographic instability of watercourses. Modifications in the fluvial trajectory lead to frequent floods because of poor drainage conditions. These processes give rise to new deposition centers, phenomena which form almost imperceptibly, and the reduction of coastal lagoon surface. Ortiz- Pérez and Méndez Linares (2004) and Ortiz-Pérez, Méndez Linares, and Hernández Santana (2012) showed this was the case for the Palizada River mouth discharging into Terminos Lagoon, with a sediment accumulation 15% above normal during the last decade. In this way, a new cell or positive feedback subsystem is formed within a larger system (Figure 2A, B, and C). The overall trend in much of the coastal region of the GOM is towards modification of habitat condition and changes in rates Figure 2. Linkages between natural and anthropogenic drivers, stressors, and effects in the coastal zone of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Ecosystem approach of interrelationships of causes and effects from socio-economic, physical and biological factors and the coupling with variations in mean sea-level rise in the GOM. The sequence of linkages from (A) socioeconomic factors, to (B) physical factors, to (C) biological factors are shown. New figure based and redrawn from Ortiz-Pérez, Méndez Linares, and Hernández Santana (2012).

7 Ecosystem-Based Management in the Gulf of Mexico 249 Figure 3. Seasonality of freshwater inflow into the inner sea shelf and trend of aquatic primary productivity in the Gulf of Mexico. The total discharge into the U.S. Gulf of Mexico is ca. 1,110 km 3 /yr ( ). The total Mexican discharge is ca. 146 km 3 /yr ( ) from more than 33 major rivers in the two countries. The major rivers are the Mississippi (18,000 20,000 m 3 /s) and Grijalva-Usumacinta (3,800 4,700 m 3 /s). A controversial point is the Floridian aquifer system with more than 300 freshwater springs where sinkholes can discharge 26.8 km 3 /yr, and the Yucatan groundwater discharge with 13.5 km 3 /yr. Upper right corner arrow showing the new common discharge in Mexico because of climate change: year 2007, 20,000 m 3 /sec; 2009, 30,000 m 3 / sec; 2010, 25,000 m 3 /sec. Redrawn from Yáñez-Arancibia et al. (2007b). of important processes, caused by the stress imposed by the simultaneous inland migration of hydro series and ecotones due to the inland displacement of coastal and lagoon littoral fringes (Ortíz-Pérez, Méndez Linares, and Hernández Santana, 2012), with the subsequent reduction in freshwater wetlands because of elevation barriers to their inland migration, such as in the Mississippi Delta, the Grijalva/Usumacinta Delta, the Papaloapan Delta, and others (Ortíz-Pérez, Méndez Linares, and Hernández Santana, 2012 ). Not all the consequences of such impacts can be easily visualized, for example, a series of limiting factors for biological diversity, adaptation, and establishment of new biotopes, processes that in terms of overall productivity, translate into a drop and/or replacement of the type of the ecosystem s natural productivity and, consequently, to a decrease in basic natural resources (e.g., water-soil-vegetation, Day et al., 2008). Conceptual models are an ideal way of visualizing this complex set of interactions. THE GULF OF MEXICO: SYSTEM FUNCTIONING AS THE BASIS FOR SUSTAINABLE COASTAL MANAGEMENT Two concepts are fundamental to sustainable management of the coastal zone. These are the idea of energetic pulsing and its role in the functioning of coastal ecosystems and the impact of climate change. We treat these first and then show how they are related to important aspects of management. Energetic Pulsing As stated above, a key concept for integrated coastal management is that sustainable management will be most successful when it is based on ecosystem functioning (Day et al., 1997; Yáñez-Arancibia, Day, and Currie-Alder, 2009). This means that management activities should integrate ecosystem functioning and allow the system to self-design and self-regulate naturally (Day et al., 1997; Mitsch and Jorgensen, 2004). One of the key concepts in ecosystem functioning, especially for coastal systems, is the idea of energetic pulsing. The pulsing concept states that coastal systems are structured and sustained by a hierarchical series of overlapping energetic forcing or pulsing events that vary on spatial and temporal scales Two important concepts that are especially pertinent for lower river floodplains and coastal areas are the flood pulse concept for lower rivers and their flood plains (Junk, 1999; Junk, Bayley, and Sparks, 1989) and the pulsing concept for coastal systems, as exemplified by the Mississippi River basin and delta (Day et al., 1997), Apalachicola Bay (Livingston, 2000), and the land ocean interactions along the Mexican Gulf coast (Yáñez-Arancibia et al., 2007b). The flood pulse concept considers not only the importance of hydrology and hydrochemistry of the river itself but also focuses on the exchange of water, nutrients, and organisms between the river and the connected floodplain (Junk, 1999; Junk, Bayley, and Sparks, 1989). Periodic inundation is the driving force in a river floodplain ecosystem. For coastal systems, pulsing events range from switching of deltaic lobes, which take place on the order of hundreds to thousands of years, to daily tides, including great floods that occur a few times a century, strong storms such as hurricanes occurring on decadal scales, annual river floods, and frontal passages (Day et al., 1997, 2003; Viles and Goudie, 2003; Yáñez-Arancibia, 2004; Yáñez-Arancibia et al., 2007b). These pulses are so fundamental to the functioning of coastal systems that their maintenance must be a central objective of integrated coastal management. Vulnerability to Global Climatic Change Ecological pulsing can become unbalanced when the effects of global climate change are added to the mix of forcing that impacts management. Because of this, an important goal of research related to climate change is to understand its impacts on coastal ecosystems and the development of management approaches to mitigate the effects of climate change (Day et al., 2004a, 2005, 2008; Yáñez-Arancibia, 2010). This understanding involves ecological, economic, and social elements, particularly if we are dealing with environmental sustainability for economic development of coasts (Yáñez-Arancibia et al., 2009). Global change impacts include changes in temperature, precipitation, the frequency of drought, changes in river discharge, salinity intrusion, sea-level rise, and hurricane frequency and strength. Climate change induces uncertainties in the environmental stability of critical coastal habitats and their economic development. A range of geomorphological impacts of climate change have been recognized, such as alteration in stream flow and sediment yield, coastal erosion, and sea-level rise (Day et al., 2003, 2005; Ning et al., 2003; Ortiz-Pérez, Méndez Linares, and Hernández Santana, 2012; Poff, Brinson, and Day, 2002; Scavia et al., 2002; Twilley et al., 2001; Viles and Goudie, 2003). The ability to deal with other human impacts becomes magnified when added to the effects derived from global climate

8 250 Yáñez-Arancibia, Day, and Reyes Figure 4. Coastal ecosystem-based management approach. The role of ecosystem functioning and environmental services, and the natural production mechanisms, to support environmental planning and management decisions towards coastal socioeconomic development in the Gulf of Mexico. The goal is to maintain an ecosystem in healthy, productive, and resilient conditions so that it can provide the services humans want and need. The guiding principle is ocean and coastal resources should be managed to reflect the relationships among all ecosystem components, including humans and nonhuman species, the environment in which they live, and the physical, biological, and socioeconomic interrelationships. The impact is in more effective governance, improved science for decisionmaking, and strengthened educational programs of ICZM. change (Ning et al., 2003; Poff, Brinson, and Day, 2002; Twilley et al., 2001). It is calculated that global temperature will rise between 3º and 5ºC in the 21 st century (IPCC, 2007; Poff, Brinson, and Day, 2002). This is projected to accelerate the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion and melting of land based ice masses. Increased sea-level rise rates are a critical problem in the GOM due to the large areas of wetlands (Day et al., 2008; e.g., Mississippi Delta, Mississippi/Louisiana/Texas coastal plain, Everglades tidal wetlands, Usumacinta/Grijalva delta, and Veracruz/Tabasco/Campeche coastal plain), and the potential reduction in local freshwater runoff to parts of the Gulf (Poff, Brinson, and Day, 2002; Twilley et al., 2001). Processes in Aquatic Primary Productivity Coastal processes, rather than oceanographic processes, exert primary controls on aquatic primary productivity and water fertility in the inner shelf of the GOM (Bianchi et al., 2010; Bianchi, Pennock, and Twilley, 1999; Day et al., 2004a; Deegan et al., 1986; Lohrenz et al., 1999; Yáñez-Arancibia et al., 2007b). Coastal processes include river discharge, littoral currents, tides, residual currents, winds, and estuarine plumes, and are affected by areas of coastal vegetation (e.g., swamps and marshes) and terrigenous-derived sediments. These processes are key to understanding ecosystem functioning of the coastal zone in the GOM and its impact on primary productivity. Table 1 summarizes the ecosystem profile of typical estuarine systems in the GOM. These are affected by the double ecological pulsing, one from Florida to Texas, and the other, as a mirror image, from Yucatan to Tamaulipas (Figure 3). The global pulsing shown in Figure 3 shows that the seasonal pattern of river discharge modulates the pattern of aquatic primary productivity along both the U.S. and Mexican GOM coasts. Figure 4 shows a number of pulsing patterns in coastal ecological systems and how they must be integrated into coastal management. Given water budgets, river discharge, residence time in the mixing zone, nutrient concentrations, and the efficiency of the sediment sink, it is clear that some GOM coastal ecosystems are highly susceptible to eutrophication, and input patterns are strongly correlated with hypoxia in the inner continental shelf off Florida as has been suggested by Livingston (2000), Louisiana and Texas as has been shown by Mitsch et al. (2001), Rabalais, Turner, and Scavia (2002), and Rabalais, Turner, and Wiseman (1999), and with the inner continental shelf off Campeche, Tabasco, and Yucatán as has been suggested by Herrera-Silveira et al. (2004a, 2004b) and Yáñez-Arancibia et al. (2007b). Overall, the coastal processes that exert controls on aquatic primary productivity and water fertility in the Gulf coastal zone in turn affect both habitat quality and fishery resources. Local scale processes include small rivers and estuarine outflow, wind and wave effects, and nearshore circulation. Mesoscale process include tides, upwelling, meteorological forcing, regional circulation, internal waves, topographic effects, large rivers, fronts and estuarine plumes, and the Loop Current circulation

9 Ecosystem-Based Management in the Gulf of Mexico 251 features. Organic matter, nutrients, and heavy metals from the watersheds also have a pronounced effect on GOM coastal ecosystems (Botello, Villanueva, and Rosales Hoz, 2004; Day et al., 2003, 2005; Herrera-Silveira et al., 2004a, 2004b; Mitsch et al., 2001). In particular, nutrients from agricultural runoff have markedly altered the characteristics of the freshwater flowing through the Everglades (Gentile et al., 2001), Apalachicola Bay (Livingston, 2000), the Mississippi Delta (Mitsch et al., 2001), Terminos Lagoon (Yáñez-Arancibia et al., 2012), and the Northern Yucatan (Herrera-Silveira et al., 2004a, 2004b). These nutrients have often led to eutrophication as a result of change in the biotic structure and rates of production of aquatic primary producers. Wetland Restoration Tropical and warm temperate GOM wetlands in both Mexico and the U.S. have had dramatic annual losses estimated to have been as high as 250 km 2 per year (Yáñez-Arancibia and Day, 2004a, 2004b). These losses are due to a combination of human and natural factors, including subsidence, sea-level rise, shoreline erosion, freshwater and sediment deprivation, urban and agricultural expansion, saltwater intrusion, oil and gas activities (e.g., canal construction and induced subsidence), navigation channels, and grazing by herbivores. In effect, many of these activities disrupt the important pulses that sustain coastal wetlands. Concerns over these losses exist because of the extensive living resources and economic development that depend on these habitats. Coastal wetlands provide habitat for fisheries, waterfowl, neotropical birds, and furbearers; storm protection; amenities for recreation and tourism; flood protection; and the context for a number of cultures unique to the GOM. In response to the rapid loss of coastal wetlands, a broad effort has been initiated by governments, private interests, and the academic and conservation communities, for planning, constructing, operating, maintaining, monitoring, and evaluating restoration projects in coastal wetlands (Conner et al., 1997; Day et al., 2003, 2004a, 2005; Day, Yáñez-Arancibia, and Mitsch, 2009; Harwell et al., 1999; Mitsch and Jorgensen, 2004; Mitsch et al., 2001; Twilley et al., 1998; Yáñez-Arancibia et al., 2007a). Wetland rehabilitation is a key concern for management initiatives in the GOM (Day, Yáñez-Arancibia, and Mitsch, 2009; Yáñez-Arancibia et al., 2007a). For example, Harwell et al. (1999) described a strategic process to illustrate how ecosystem management and ecological risk assessment principles apply to south Florida, including the development of societal goals and objectives for desired sustainable ecological conditions, translation of these goals/objectives into scientifically meaningful ecological endpoints, creation of a regional plan designed to meet the sustainability goals, and development of a framework for evaluating how well the plan will achieve ecological sustainability of the Everglades in south Florida. Twilley et al., (1998) and Botero and Salzwedel (1999) suggested that part of the solution for rehabilitating mangrove wetlands is allowing the natural recovery of the system by restoring the original freshwater drainage and sediment supply. Other approaches include implementing an integrated management strategy for wetland restoration in the Mississippi River basin (Mitsch et al., 2001) for reducing nutrient enrichment and hypoxia in the northern GOM. Other ecological and economic benefits of the use of wetlands for assimilation of municipal wastewater have been discussed by Day et al., (2004b) and Day, Yáñez- Arancibia, and Mitsch (2009), particularly concerning nitrogen reduction utilizing coastal wetlands for wastewater assimilation. Most of these management approaches are aimed at restoring natural system functioning and reintroducing energetic pulsing (Figure 4). Wetland loss can take place in several ways. One important mechanism is reclamation of coastal wetlands for human uses such as urban expansion, industrial development, and agriculture. Another important way that wetlands are lost is conversion to open water. The most notable example of this is in the Mississippi Delta where about 4,500 km 2 or 25% of coastal marshes disappeared in the 20 th century (Conner et al., 1997; Day et al., 2007a; Day, Yáñez-Arancibia, and Mitsch, 2009). This loss was the result of a combination of interacting factors including isolation of the river from the delta plain, pervasive alteration of hydrology, and loss of barrier islands (Day, Psuty, and Perez, 2000), all of which disrupted the natural pattern of energetic forcing. Changes in hydrology impact coastal wetlands. For example, in a number of areas around the GOM coast, hydrological alterations have led to salinization and death of marshes and mangroves (Ortiz-Pérez, Méndez Linares, and Hernández Santana, 2012). Wetland restoration is strongly dependent on at least the partial recovery of the physical and chemical characteristics of the predrainage landscape. For example, wetland restoration is being suggested for improvement of water quality conditions in both the Mississippi Delta and the Everglades (Day et al., 2003, 2004b, 2005; Day, Yáñez-Arancibia, and Mitsch, 2009; Gentile et al., 2001; Mitsch et al., 2001). In general, the cost of energy and new ecotechnologies are important considerations for longterm ecosystem recovery and sustainability (Day et al., 2005; Day, Yáñez-Arancibia, and Mitsch, 2009; Mitsch et al., 2001). Variability of Coastal Fisheries Over the last 30 years, a great amount of progress has been made in the GOM in understanding the temporal and spatial variations of fish resources as related to different environmental forcing (Baltz and Yáñez-Arancibia, 2012). Coastal fisheries are important in the GOM; however, they are highly variable and intrinsically related to both ecosystem dynamics and biotic interrelationships, and there are questions regarding their sustainability (Baltz and Yáñez-Arancibia, 2012; Pauly, 2010). For instance, positive correlations have been shown between fishery yields and intertidal vegetation (Turner, 1977, 1986), area of coastal wetlands and river discharge (Yáñez-Arancibia, Soberon Chavez, and Sanchez-Gil, 1985), aquatic primary productivity (Nixon and Buckley, 2002; Nixon et al., 1986), and freshwater inflow and nutrient concentration (Deegan et al., 1986). On the other hand, negative correlations have been shown between fish catch and nutrient enrichment (Deegan, 2002), and associated with habitat degradation such as seagrass depletion and algae growth (Deegan, 2002; Deegan, Hughes,

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