Blending Active and Passive. Joshua Rogers Vice President ishares Product Strategy & Consulting

Transcription

1 Blending Active and Passive Joshua Rogers Vice President ishares Product Strategy & Consulting

2 The more things change, the more they stay the same The Importance of Asset Allocation The Cost of Timing the Market Source: Brinson, Hood, Beebower, Financial Analysts Journal, Jan-Feb, 1995 Source: BlackRock, Morningstar Direct, as of 12/31/2014. Measuring 10 Year Period from 1/1/ /31/2014. The blended portfolio assumes 30% S&P 500, 5% Russell 2000, 20% MSCI EAFE, 5% MSCI Emg Mkts, and 40% Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index. The blended portfolio was assumed to rebalance quarterly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 2

3 The more things change, the more they stay the same Investors Have Underperformed 20-year annualized returns by asset class Sources: BlackRock; Bloomberg; Informa Investment Solutions; Dalbar. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to directly invest in an index. Oil is represented by the NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Future Index. Contract size is 1,000 barrels with a contract price quoted in US Dollars and Cents per barrel. Delivery dates take place every month of the year. Gold is represented by the change in the spot price of gold in USD per ounce. Homes are represented by the Existing One Family Home Sales Median Price Index. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index, an unmanaged index that consists of the common stocks of 500 large-capitalization companies, within various industrial sectors, most of which are listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Bonds are represented by the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, an unmanaged market-weighted index that consists of investment-grade corporate bonds (rated BBB or better), mortgages and US Treasury and government agency issues with at least 1 year to maturity. International Stocks are represented by the MSCI EAFE Index, a broad-based measure of international stock performance. Inflation is represented by the Consumer Price Index. Average Investor is represented by Dalbar s average asset allocation investor return, which uses data from the Investment Company Institute (ICI), Standard & Poor s and Barclays Index Products to compare mutual fund investor returns to an appropriate set of benchmarks. Covering the period from January 1, 1992, to December 31, 2011, the study utilizes mutual fund sales, redemptions and exchanges each month as the measure of investor behavior. These behaviors reflect the average investor. Based on this behavior, the analysis calculates the average investor return for various periods. These results are then compared to the returns of respective indices.. Returns are annualized (and total return where applicable) and represent the 20-year period ending 12/31/11 to match Dalbar s most recent analysis. 3

4 What to ask when building a portfolio for clients What are the return requirements for my clients to reach their goals? Are my clients getting commensurate return for the risk they re taking? How much risk are my clients comfortable taking? Return Risk Total Portfolio Performance When is the potential return of active management worth the cost? Cost How do I keep the cost of my clients portfolio including taxes as low as possible? When should my clients pay for the diversification benefits of non-correlated investments? 4

5 Blending Index & Active What s my primary focus when managing a portfolio? Manager Evaluation Favor Active Funds Asset Allocation Favor ETFs Favor Active Funds for: Outcome-oriented solutions Strategies that can t be replicated with ETFs Outsourcing of investment opinions Favor ETFs for: Core style-box exposures Asset allocation building blocks Short-term tactical investments Investors are moving toward a blended approach Source: BlackRock, Simfund as of 12/31/14. For illustrative purposes only. Outcome-oriented active strategies include AI, Sector, Component & Flexible FI, geography, income-oriented, and multi-asset funds. Traditional Style-Box Mutual Funds include U.S. Equity style box funds. Efficient Index Strategies include ETFs and Index mutual funds. All are U.S. net flows from

6 Funds that mimic benchmarks are underperforming % of Active Managers that Outperform ishares S&P Index ETFs, after fees & taxes (Trailing 5 Years) Source: Morningstar Direct, as of 12/31/2014. Measures period from 1/1/ /31/2014. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 6

7 How institutional investors build portfolios California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) 38% 62% 100% 100% 100% 100% 36% / 64% 73% 27% 68% 32% New York State Common Retirement Fund 61% 39% 100% 100% 100% 100% 35% / 65% 86% 14% Blending index and active strategies for long term goals is a decades-old approach used by large institutions Source: Pensions & Investments, as of 12/31/13. 7

8 The rise of Closet Index funds Unfortunately, closet index funds have gotten more prevalent, comprising 1/3 of equity fund assets and 16% of funds Closet indexers comprised 1.1% of equity fund assets in 1980 and 31% in 2009 % of equity mutual fund assets by active share Highly Active Funds Moderately Active Funds Closet Index Funds Pure Index Funds Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only. Source: Petajisto, Antti. Active Share and Mutual Fund Performance. Financial Analysts Journal. July/August 2013, Vol. 69, No. 4: As refernced within the study, For purposes of this study, Petajisto defines Active Stock Pickers as funds with an Active Share between 80% and 100%. Moderately Active Funds have an Active Share between 60% and 80%. Closet Index Funds are defined as having an Active Share between 20% and 60%. Pure Index Funds are defined as having an Active Share between 0% and 20%. 8

9 Using ETFs for Efficient Market Exposure Individuals and institutions are using index ETFs to provide low cost style-box exposures as building blocks in their portfolios If investors are unable to commit to an active fund for a number of years, or are unsure of which active managers to select, considering index ETFs may help Competitive Performance Average benchmark-oriented mutual funds can underperform over time due to tax inefficiency and high fees Low Cost The average ishares S&P style box ETF is one sixth the cost of the average comparable mutual fund Tax-Efficient ishares S&P style box ETFs haven t paid a capital gain in the last 10 years, while 75% of all comparable active mutual funds paid out at least once in the last 5 years 1. Source: Morningstar Direct, measuring period from 1/1/94 12/31/13. The universe includes the oldest share class of all active (non-index) large cap funds as defined by Morningstar for each 3 year period. It includes all funds that were around for the 3 year window, eve if the fund is no longer in existence today. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. 2. Source: Morningstar, as of 2/28/14. Comparison is between the average Prospectus Net Expense Ratio for IVE, IVV, IVW, IJJ, IJH, IJK, IJS, IJR and IJT (the "ishares S&P Series ETFs") (0.20%) and the average active Open-End Mutual Fund (1.21%) within the same Morningstar categories available in the U.S. Buying and selling shares of ETFs will result in brokerage commissions. 3. Source: Morningstar Direct, measuring calendar year periods from The universe includes the oldest share class of all active (non-index) U.S. style box funds as defined by Morningstar for the last 5 years. The universe only inludes funds that were still in existence as of 12/31/13. Past distributions are not indicative of future distributions. 9

10 Be patient or be passive with long-only active Patience is key in realizing the long-term benefits of holding strong active funds Open-end active mutual fund performance over 10 years Best Performing Funds Top Quartile Funds 2,854 active mutual funds w/ 10-year records Top Quartile 2 nd Quartile 3 rd Quartile Bottom Quartile % suffering at least one 3-year period of underperformance Over ten years, 90% of top-quartile active mutual funds spent at least one 3-year period underperforming their peer groups 63% suffered at least one 5-year period of underperformance Worst Performing Funds Source: Morningstar, DiMeo Schneider & Associates white paper, The Next Chapter in the Active versus Passive Debate (2012 update). Includes 2,854 open end mutual funds with 10-year records in 17 Morningstar categories. Of the 717 top quartile funds, 646 spent at least one rolling 3-year period below the median performance for their categories. Time period analyzed is the 10-year period ended 12/31/11. 10

11 Finding Value in Active Management Investors are best served by active when they provide outcomes that indexes cannot A basic framework can help investors in judging for themselves which active managers are best incorporated in a portfolio Outcome-Oriented Designed to achieve a specific client objective with equity growth; e.g.: Income Protection Diversification Clear mandate and measure of success Flexible / Unconstrained Go-anywhere to take advantage of opportunities Maximize potential for manager skill to produce higher returns or lower risk Benchmark Plus High conviction managers with a proven and repeatable process for delivering excess returns Offering clients solutions for their individual needs Clearly differentiated products that are not beheld to a benchmark Traditional actively managed, benchmark plus products 11

12 Building Better Portfolios Fixed Income

13 The Fixed Income Dilemma Bonds have NEVER lost money over any 5 year period Rolling 5 Year Average Annual Return for Traditional Fixed Income Avg 5.51% 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10Year Stocks Bonds Stocks Bonds Stocks Bonds Stocks Bonds % Lost Money 26% 8% 17% 1% 13% 0% 6% 0% Best Period % 35.21% 43.35% 19.78% 36.12% 20.28% 21.43% 14.68% Worst Period % -9.20% % -0.67% % 0.66% -4.95% 1.17% Source: Morningstar as of 9/30/14. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Interest Rates and Bond Returns represented by IA SBBI IT Govt Index from 1926 to 1975 than the Barclays US Aggregate Index from 1976 to

14 What is the Role of Fixed Income in the Portfolio? The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde Diversifies Equity Risk Low Yields High Interest Rate Risk Potentially Muted Total Returns Capital Preservation? Does Not Diversify Equity Risk As Well Higher Yields Lower Interest Rate Risk Potentially Higher Total Returns Capital Preservation? 14

15 Are the Bond Markets Efficient? In some years, index funds outperform and in some years active managers outperform Expenses and taxes do impact returns Blending index and active strategies can enable investors to lower expenses, minimize taxes and experience less volatility through interest rate and cycles Core Bond Mutual Fund Performance Compared to Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index Source: Morningstar, Barclays and Bloomberg as of 12/31/13. Core bond mutual funds represented by Morningstar s Intermediate Term Bond Category. Past performance does not guarantee future results. FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL Financial professional USE use ONLY only not - NOT for public FOR distribution PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION.

16 Decision Tree: Selection of Active and Passive Strategies Do I build portfolios using strategic asset allocation and risk management? Do I prefer to make all tactical decisions myself? Am I focused on reducing fees and taxes? Do I believe in active management in some markets and not others? Do I prefer to make some tactical decisions myself? Am I sensitive to fees and taxes, but willing to pay for outperformance? Do I focus on selecting managers with high potential for alpha? Do I prefer to outsource tactical decisions? Am I willing to pay more for outperformance? Index Blending Index and Active Active For illustrative purposes only. Not meant to be investment advice.

17 Build a Better Foundation: Core Bond Exposure Client Challenge: Manage through the next market cycle while maintaining strategic asset allocation targets Willing to provide active manager with more flexibility, but still need core bond exposure Blend ishares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) with BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities (BSIIX) Unconstrained bond strategy Duration target of -2 to 7 years Can invest without sector, quality or geographic limits Can quickly change exposure to interest rate and credit risk ishares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) Core Total US Bond Market Exposure Multi-sector Investment Grade Bonds Risk-return profile typically used to determine strategic asset allocation Interest rate risk largest return driver Low cost and tax efficient Fund Risk Duration Correlation to S&P 500 Correlation to Russell 2000 SIO 2.27% AGG 2.71% %/50% Blended Portfolio 2.12% Source: BlackRock and Morningstar as of 12/31/14. Data represents time period between December 2011 and December Risk represented by standard deviation of total returns using monthly data. Past correlations are no guarantee of future correlations. FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL Financial professional USE use ONLY only not - NOT for public FOR distribution PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION.

18 Keep More of What You Earn: Tax-Exempt Income Client Challenge: $30 mm of municipal bonds maturing and difficult to find individual municipal securities Advisor wanted to implement a more flexible bond portfolio than selecting individual bonds Consider barbell approach by allocating ishares ibonds ETFs and BlackRock Strategic Municipal Opportunities ibonds Muni ETFs Alternative to bond ladders Holds national muni bonds that mature between June and Sept of each year Duration declines over time Monthly distributions of tax-exempt income Credit quality: Investment grade only 30% ibonds BlackRock Strategic Municipal Opportunities (MAMTX) Flexible Municipal Solution Search for best tax-advantaged income opportunities Seeks to provide optimal duration and credit positioning Duration Range 0 to 10 years, avg range of 2.5 to 4.5 yrs Credit quality: 0-50% high yield, neutral at 30% This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice or a recommendation regarding the Funds or any security in particular. This information is strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and is subject to change. This information does not represent the actual current, past or future holdings or portfolio of any BlackRock client. FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL Financial professional USE use ONLY only not - NOT for public FOR distribution PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION.

19 Thematic Investing: Blending Active and Passive Build a Better Foundation Allocate to core and flexible strategies to manage risk and volatility BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund (BSIIX) ishares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) Seek Protection from Rising Rates Solutions range from short maturity, floating rate, interest rate hedged and building bond ladders Ultra short exposure: ishares Short Maturity Bond ETF (NEAR) Interest Rate Hedged: BlackRock Global Long/Short Credit Fund (BGCIX) Generate Income Consider emerging market debt and high yield bonds BlackRock High Yield Bond Fund (BHYIX) ishares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB) Keep more of what you earn Adapt to higher taxes and take advantage of opportunities in municipal bonds BlackRock Strategic Municipal Opportunities Fund (MAMTX) ishares ibonds Muni Bond ETFs (IBMD, IBME, IBMF, IBMG, IBMH and IBMI) 19

20 Evaluating Index Exposures

21 A framework for selecting efficient market exposure Manager How well do you know your manager / provider? 2 Exposure What s inside your fund? Structure What are the implications of structure? Liquidity Can you trade when you need to? Costs What is the true total cost of ownership? 21

22 1. Exposure What s inside your fund? Defining and delivering the appropriate exposure Broad or narrow? Depth of coverage? Overlap or gaps with other index products or active funds? Understanding how the exposure will behave Is it actually the exposure you intended? Does it express the view you intended in the most precise way? How will the exposure behave In a portfolio Under stress In good times / bad times When does it work / when doesn t it work 22

23 2. Costs What does it really cost? Purchase price + Maintenance Fuel efficiency Insurance = Explicit Costs Implicit Costs Expense ratio + Trading costs = Total Cost of Ownership Brokerage commission Performance vs. benchmark (tracking difference) Taxes on distributions 23

24 Total Cost of Ownership 1-year holding period cost, one-way, secondary market trade U.S. Large Cap U.S. Mid Cap U.S. Small Cap Core Bond IVV VOO VV IJH VO IJR VB AGG BND Explicit Assets ($B) Net Expense Ratio (bps) Commission Varies based on account type Trading Cost 1 (bps) Implicit Tracking Difference 2 (bps) Tax Cost 3 (bps) Total Cost of Ownership (bps) $100K Total Cost $590 $580 $590 $510 $490 $430 $530 $1,230 $1,360 4 Overlap = 14.11% 4 Overlap = 21.45% 1 Half of the average 60-day bid/ask spread is used to calculate a one-way trade impact (as of 12/31/14). 2 Median, rolling 12-month tracking difference, over prior 24 month period as of 12/31/2014 as per ETF.com (formerly IndexUniverse ). Securities lending, security sampling and cash drag account for the difference between the Index Total Return and the ETF NAV Total Return (gross of fees). 3 Tax Cost is calculated from issuer websites as the difference between 1-year NAV total returns before and after taxes on distributions (as of 12/31/14); assumes the highest rate of 23.8% on qualified distribution and long-term capital gains if applicable, and the highest ordinary income rate of 43.4% on non-qualified distributions and short-term capital gains if applicable. 4 Source: Morningstar Direct Common Holdings Score as of 12/31/2014 Past performance does not guarantee future results. For standardized performance for these funds, please see the end of this document. Source: BlackRock, NYSE Arca, ETF.com, ishares.com, Vanguard.com 24

25 Appendix

26 Standardized Performance as of 12/31/14 Fund Name Fund Inception Date Expense Ratio (as of 12/31/14) 1-Year Returns 5-Year Returns 10-Year Returns Since Inception NAV Mkt Price NAV Mkt Price NAV Mkt Price NAV Mkt Price ishares Core S&P 500 (IVV) 5/15/ % 13.62% 13.56% 15.37% 15.37% 7.62% 7.62% 4.34% 4.33% Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) 9/7/ % 13.63% 13.55% % 17.96% Vanguard Large-Cap ETF (VV) 1/27/ % 13.39% 13.37% 15.49% 15.49% 8.02% 7.98% 8.07% 8.07% ishares Core S&P Mid-Cap (IJH) 5/22/ % 9.64% 9.71% 16.39% 16.41% 9.58% 9.60% 9.44% 9.44% Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF (VO) 1/26/ % 13.76% 13.75% 17.03% 17.05% 9.46% 9.46% 10.04% 10.04% ishares Core S&P Small-Cap (IJR) 5/22/ % 5.67% 5.85% 17.19% 17.29% 8.93% 8.95% 10.09% 10.09% Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB) 1/26/ % 7.50% 7.63% 16.87% 16.90% 9.14% 9.11% 9.45% 9.46% ishares Core US Aggregate Bond (AGG) 9/22/ % 6.04% 6.00% 4.30% 4.31% 4.53% 4.49% 4.52% 4.53% Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) 4/3/ % 5.96% 5.82% 4.35% 4.29% % 4.95% ishares JPMorgan USD Emerg Markets Bond (EMB) 12/17/ % 6.69% 6.05% 6.79% 6.41% % 6.39% BlackRock High Yield Bond Fund 11/19/ % 3.38% % % % -- The performance quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor s shares, when sold or redeemed, may be worth more or less than the original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. Performance data current to the most recent month end may be obtained by visiting or Shares of ETFs are bought and sold at market price (not NAV) and are not individually redeemed from the Fund. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns. Market returns are based upon the midpoint of the bid/ask spread at 4:00 p.m. eastern time (when NAV is normally determined for most ETFs), and do not represent the returns you would receive if you traded shares at other times. 26

27 Important Notes Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses which may be obtained by visiting or Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, BlackRock ). Important risks of the Strategic Income Opportunities Fund: The BlackRock mutual funds are actively managed and the characteristics will vary. Bond values fluctuate in price so the value of your investment can go down depending on market conditions. The two main risks related to Fixed Income investing are interest-rate and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the bond issuer will not be able to make principal and interest payments. The principal on mortgage- or asset-backed securities normally may be prepaid at any time, which reduces the yield and market value of those securities. Obligations of US Gov t agencies and authorities are supported by varying degrees of credit but generally are not backed by the full faith and credit of the US gov t. Investing in derivatives entails specific risks relating to liquidity, leverage and credit that may reduce returns and increase volatility. International investing includes risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks often are heightened for investments in emerging / developing markets or smaller capital markets. Investments in non-investment-grade debt securities ( high-yield or junk bonds) may be subject to greater market fluctuations and risk of default or loss of income and principal than securities in higher rating categories. The funds may actively engage in short-selling, which entails special risks. If the funds makes short sales in securities that increase in value, the funds will lose value. Any loss on short positions may or may not be offset by investing short-sale proceeds in other Investments. For a complete list of fund risks, please see the prospectus. Fixed income risks include interest-rate and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in bond values. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the bond issuer will not be able to make principal and interest payments. Non-investment-grade debt securities (high-yield/junk bonds) may be subject to greater market fluctuations, risk of default or loss of income and principal than higher-rated securities. There may be less information on the financial condition of municipal issuers than for public corporations. The market for municipal bonds may be less liquid than for taxable bonds. Some investors may be subject to federal or state income taxes or the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Capital gains distributions, if any, are taxable. International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks often are heightened for investments in emerging/developing markets and in concentrations of single countries. 27

28 Important Notes The ishares Currency Hedged Funds (the Funds ) use of derivatives may reduce the Funds returns and/or increase volatility and subject the Funds to counterparty risk, which is the risk that the other party in the transaction will not fulfill its contractual obligation. The Funds could suffer losses related to their derivative positions because of a possible lack of liquidity in the secondary market and as a result of unanticipated market movements, which losses are potentially unlimited. There can be no assurance that the Funds hedging transactions will be effective. Investment in the Funds is subject to the risk of the underlying Funds. Shares of ETFs trade at market price, which may be greater or less than net asset value. The ishares ibonds ETFs ( Funds ) will terminate within the month and year in each Fund s name. An investment in the Fund(s) is not guaranteed, and an investor may experience losses and/or tax consequences, including near or at the termination date. In the final months of each Fund's operation, its portfolio will transition to cash and cash-like instruments. As a result, its yield will tend to move toward prevailing money market rates, and may be lower than the yields of the bonds previously held by the Fund and lower than prevailing yields in the bond market. Transactions in shares of ETFs will result in brokerage commissions and will generate tax consequences. All regulated investment companies are obliged to distribute portfolio gains to shareholders. Certain traditional mutual funds can also be tax efficient. Investment comparisons are for illustrative purposes only. To better understand the similarities and differences between investments, including investment objectives, risks, fees and expenses, it is important to read the products' prospectuses. Information on non-ishares ETF securities is provided strictly for illustrative purposes and should not be deemed an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy shares of any security other than the ishares Funds, that are described in this material. The ishares Funds are not sponsored, endorsed, issued, sold or promoted by JPMorgan Chase & Co., MSCI Inc. or S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. None of these companies make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in the Funds. BlackRock is not affiliated with the companies listed above BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. ishares, ibonds and BLACKROCK are registered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries. All other marks are the property of their respective owners