2015 Trends in UK Real Estate Pick n Mix

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1 2015 Trends in UK Real Estate Pick n Mix

2 As another year begins, a new and colourful picture of UK real estate is emerging. The clearest trend is diversification. There is a greater variety of investors and funders in the market, and many investors are increasingly willing to look at a wider variety of asset classes and geographies in short, it s a true assortment to pick n mix from. Nabarro has put together an infographic which gives a short and (very) sweet overview of some of the key themes likely to play out over the coming year. We hope it raises a smile while you re reading it, and that it won t tempt you to break any new year s resolutions!

3 A sweet tooth for UK property The UK is a target for: 56% of Asian investors Only 14% said they would be net sellers and 39% of US investors 64% of UK real estate investors plan to expand their portfolio in 2015 (Source: Colliers Global Investor Sentiment Report) but less weight of confidence overall? Confidence rose from August 2012 to February 2014 but is now slowly declining. Overall sentiment is still positive, but 36% of fund managers predict no increase or a decrease in market activity. (Source: Lloyds Commercial Property Confidence Monitor) Dipping into the UK regions Overseas investors accounted for 64% of all investment in City office space in Q (Source: CBRE) Intense competition means investors are being pushed out of London, rather than pulled into the regions. The regions are not regenerating; it s just a question of relative value. Ian Whittock, Knight Frank Investors In a recent survey 73% of investors regarded Manchester the most appealing regional centre. Nabarro opened a new office in this dynamic market in November (Source: Nabarro and FTI Consulting Report) New combinations There is an increasing trend for overseas investors to partner with UK property companies, particularly if looking outside central London. Nabarro recently advised Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (KWAP) on its acquisition of an 80% stake in a large shopping centre in Uxbridge in a joint venture with Intu for c 175m. Access to finance In 2014 there was 35bn more available to borrow than there were market opportunities, with an average of one new entrant per week into the lending market. (Source: Savills) In 2014, we have lent in numerous sectors, including social housing, industrial, care homes and now hotels, and continue to strive to broaden our horizons in other sectors, as well as being keen to lend further in traditional commercial areas. Steve Boyle, L&G (Source: L&G press release)

4 Pick n mix your portfolio Alternative property could make up 10% of the IPD in 2015, having been 3.3% just a decade ago. (Source: Knight Frank) Student accommodation Transactions in the UK s student housing market totalled 2.37bn from January to November (Source: CBRE) Interest is high because it is a sector driven by structural undersupply, and rental growth as a result every year, even through economic downturns. Tim Mitchell, Global Student Accommodation (Source: Nabarro Real Estate Conference) Private rented sector The private rented sector is worth over 900bn. 81% of those surveyed in Nabarro and FTI Consulting s research report regarded PRS as an appealing sector, although some investors still fear the danger of rent controls. Nabarro is advising The Mill Group on the UK s first mainstream residential REIT vehicle, focused on PRS. Healthcare Demographic changes are driving growth in healthcare and retirement homes. The market for good quality primary care property investments has continued to improve indicating a long term commitment from private investors. Andrew Sproson, Primary Healthcare, JLL (Source: The Healthcare Industry Barometer) Data centres The Cisco Global Cloud Index projects that over the next five years data centre traffic will nearly triple. However, for some there is still caution around this asset class: we see a big obsolescence risk in data centres what happens if the technology changes once again? Rob Mills, Clearbell Capital (Source: Nabarro and FTI Consulting Report) Infrastructure The UK infrastructure pipeline stands at over 466bn of investment, dominated by the energy and transport sectors. This sector is attracting significant overseas interest, particularly from China, as demonstrated by the 800m investment in the Manchester Airport Project made by Beijing Construction Engineering Group. Value ( bn) Priority infrastructure investments: energy and transport 98.4 Energy 83.4 National rail 8 Road 5.8 Transport for London 4.2 (Source: The National Infrastructure Plan) Air Ports Local transport

5 Traditional favourites London offices...bah, humbug! There are a lot of high value deals, but also signs the market is slowing. 3.4bn was transacted in Q3 2014, a 17% decrease on Q2. (Source: CBRE) There may be oversupply by 2017, if the availability of speculative developments coincides with softening demand. Industrial 24.9m sq ft of UK industrial space was taken Q1-Q3 2014, of which 10.5m sq ft was grade A. (Source: DTZ) The IPF has suggested that industrial returns may overtake office returns in (Source: IPF survey of independent forecasts) Candy crush Tech City is making an 8bn contribution to UK GDP and growing. In terms of stock absorption we have now seen the TMT sector overtake financial services in London. Juliette Morgan, Tech City UK (Source: Nabarro Real Estate Conference) Sweet shops 2014 was the best year for shopping centre transactions since the recession. On one of the biggest retail deals of the year, Nabarro advised Land Securities on its 656m acquisition of a 30% stake in Bluewater shopping centre from Lend Lease. Constitutional fudge? In spite of Scotland s no vote in the 2014 referendum, decentralisation has been put firmly on the agenda. As well as devolving further powers to Scotland, the main political parties are offering, to various degrees, additional powers to some regional English cities. There may be an EU referendum in If so, the likely outcome is continued UK membership, but this is not certain and, as the Scottish referendum showed, even a campaign that loses the vote can permanently change the debate. Pick n mix your political parties The coming general election has the largest number of possible outcomes of any in recent history, with serious odds of another coalition or even a minority government. Uncertainty is likely to lead to delayed investment decisions. The prudent real estate investor will ensure they are positioned for a wide variety of outcomes.

6 Nabarro offices London 125 London Wall London EC2Y 5AL T +44 (0) Sheffield 1 South Quay Victoria Quays Sheffield S2 5SY T +44 (0) Manchester 1 The Avenue Spinningfields Manchester M3 3AP T +44 (0) Brussels 209A Avenue Louise 1050 Brussels Belgium T Singapore Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3 12 Marina Boulevard Singapore T Nabarro LLP Registered office: 125 London Wall London EC2Y 5AL. Nabarro LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales (registered number OC334031). It is a law firm authorised and regulated by the Solicitors Regulation Authority. A list of members of Nabarro LLP and of the non-members who are designated as partners is open to inspection at the registered office. The term partner is used to refer to a member of Nabarro LLP or to an employee or consultant with equivalent standing and qualifications in one of Nabarro LLP s affiliated undertakings. Detailed specialist advice should be obtained before taking or refraining from any action as a result of the comments made in this publication, which are only intended as a brief introduction to the particular subject. This information is correct on the date of publication. Nabarro LLP 2015 Dubai Office 105 Level 1 Tower 2 Al Fattan Currency House DIFC PO Box Dubai United Arab Emirates T You can find out more about us at: LinkedIn: nabarro-llp In June 2014 Nabarro commissioned a research project in conjunction with FTI Consulting which investigated the shift in investment towards alternative assets and the regions. The report Growing Opportunities in UK Real Estate features 10 interviews with key industry players and a survey of 239 investors and developers, together controlling property worth more than 150bn. Ranked as a Tier 1 firm in Legal 500 UK 2014 Commercial Property, Development and Investment Voted Real Estate Team of the Year 12308

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