1 FOCUS Foresight Security Scenarios

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1 New Security Studies Rachel Suissa (Ph.D) University of Haifa, Israel In today s globalised setting, the challenge of maintaining security is no longer limited to the traditional foreign-policy and military tools of the nationstate, and security and insecurity are no longer considered as dependent only upon geopolitics and military strength, but rather are also seen to depend upon social, economic, environmental, ethical models of analysis and tools of action From a review on J. Peter Burgess (Editor) The Routledge Handbook of New Security Studies Routledge Handbook, FOCUS Foresight Security Scenarios

2 Introductory discussion New Security studies as Shifts in Four Key Areas (Based on J. Peter Burgess (Editor) The Routledge Handbook of New Security Studies Routledge Handbooks, 2010) New security concepts Hybrid Threats, civilizational security, Comprehensive Security Approach etc. New security subjects Biopolitics of security, Financial Security, Security as Ethics etc. New security objects - Environmental Security,Food Security, Cyber-Security, Pandemic Security etc. New security practices Migration and Insecurity, Security Technologies, Commercial Security Practices etc. FOCUS PROJECT elaborates all these shifts in critical new security studies against backdrop of EU Global role in new security challenges raised in Scenarios for FOCUS Foresight Security Scenarios

3 Introductory discussion (cont.) The status of new security studies as an epistemological process:a Traditional Process versus Scenarios Process New security Studies can develop as a positivist, interpretivist or critical processes that share four standard criteria to disciplined inquiry: internal validity, external validity, reliability, and objectivity. New Security Studies emerge from Scenarios within constructivist interpretive paradigm with different research criteria such as: Plausibility: The selected scenarios must fall within the limits of what might conceivably happen. Differentiation: Each scenario constructed should be sufficiently different for it not to be construed as variations of a base case. Consistency: The logical reasoning contained in a scenario must not have any in-built inconsistency that would undermine its credibility. Decision-making utility: Each scenario should contribute sufficient insights into the future to bear on the decision focus selected. Decisionmaking utility is an important criterion: Even though the precise visions or scenarios do not come to pass, the very fact of constructing them can influence individual behavior and collective decision and policy making. Challenge: The scenarios should challenge the organization s conventional wisdom about the future. 3 FOCUS Foresight Security Scenarios

4 Scenarios as stimulating new security studies A simulation of "real document First Annual Report on the implementation of the EU Internal Security Strategy (ISS) Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council, Released in Brussels, m 4 FOCUS Foresight Security Scenarios

5 A simulation of "real document (cont.) PRIORITIES and A New Security Concept Disruption of international criminal networks Prevention of terrorism and addressing radicalization and recruitment Raising the levels of security for citizens and business in cyberspace Strengthening security through border management Increasing Europe s resilienceto crises and disasters New security concept: Supra-National Society Resilience instead of National Resilience the sum of 27 MS national resilience is not Europe's resilience 5 FOCUS Foresight Security Scenarios

6 A simulation of "real document (cont.) THREAT AND RISK ASSESSMENT and A New Security Practice Europol Eurojust Frontex EU Joint Situation Center(SitCen) others New security practice - Security technologies as an indicator to intelligence communities absolute and relative advantage: how security technologies practices affect tensions between EU and Member State intelligence agendas; tensions between EU, NATO, UN, etc. intelligence agencies; tensions between the principles of "need to know" and "need to share" information; challenges to the concept of pooling and sharing of intelligence capabilities following the complex picture of external and internal threats and related responsibilities. 6 FOCUS Foresight Security Scenarios

7 A simulation of "real document (cont.) EMERGING THREATS and a New security Object Increasing reliance on internet technology, with increasing vulnerability Reduced resources to combat internal security threats due to the ongoing economic crisis Impact of the external dimension of security New security Object Cyber-Security Interdependence and deterrence in cyberwarfare "soft - "hard" power in managing cyber as an emerging threat? 7 FOCUS Foresight Security Scenarios

8 A simulation of "real document (cont.) Coherence between the internal and external dimensions of security and a New Security Subject Joint meetings of the Standing Committee on operational cooperation on internal security (COSI) and the Political and Security Committee (PSC) Enhancing ties between the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) and Justice and Home Affairs (JHA), with a focus on closer cooperation between CSDP civilian missions and JHA Cooperation between CSDP police missions and Europol New security subject Security as Ethics Justice and Home Affairs special tasks in harmonising between the internal and external dimensions of security (confidence building, political interests and values balance etc., demilitarization of Petersberg tasks etc.) 8 FOCUS Foresight Security Scenarios

9 FOCUS ( Foresight Security Scenarios - Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles ) FOCUS New Security Studies Roadmap FOCUS New Security Studies Roadmap is: Beyond the agenda required in the First Annual Report on the implementation of the EU Internal Security Strategy (ISS) Based on the Comprehensive Approach that: - Reflects the cross-border and cross-sector nature of current security threats and challenges as well as the complexity of instruments and objectives in security policy along the internal-external continuum. - Focuses on the holistic nature and broad tradeoffs involving societal goals to increase the security of the EU and its citizenry as a whole. - Civil-military interaction plays an important role. Because FOCUS is a civil security research project that primarily addresses exogenous (not external) roles of the EU as a comprehensive security provider to its citizens, the project does not investigate the defence of strategic EU or Member States interests outside their borders. However, FOCUS explores civil-military interaction to meet challenges and threats abroad before they reach the Union. 9 FOCUS Foresight Security Scenarios

10 Coherence and Consistency of the Internal Framework of the EU as a Comprehensive Security Provider (based on FOCUS D7.1-PAGE 50) EU Capabilities A Multidisciplinary Theme Sociology Citizen Resilience, Societal Acceptance ECONOMICS Coherence of Policies & Resources; Asymmetric capabilities MS & the EU EU CAPABILITIES TECHNOLOGY Increase of critical (inter-)dependencies between technologies; Dependency on information & communication technology; Psychology Politics of fear, POLICY STUDIES Cultural Preparedness Political Planning Tools for Civil Security Sciences Decision making, 10 Processes FOCUS & Foresight Security Scenarios Institutions

11 A Holistic Vulnerability Assessment Interdisciplinary Practice Discipline View(s) of Vulnerability Recommendation(s) Geography Meteorology Engineering Anthropology Economics Sociology Psychology Epidemiology Environmental Science Political Science Vulnerability is determined by the use of hazardprone areas Vulnerability is due to a lack of advanced warning of severe weather Vulnerability occurs when structures and infrastructure cannot withstand the forces of hazards Vulnerability emanates from constraining values, attitudes and practices Vulnerability is related to poverty and results in an inability to prevent, prepare for or recover from a disaster Vulnerability is a product of inaccurate assumptions about disaster behavior and is related to race, gender, age, disability, etc. Vulnerability is a function of overlooking or minimizing risk and not being able to cope emotionally with stress and/or loss Vulnerability is susceptibility to disease or injury and is related to malnutrition and other health factors Vulnerability is proneness to environmental degradation, which may change weather patterns and produce long-term disasters Vulnerability is produced by the political structure and incorrect decision making Land-use planning that takes into account hazards to reduce risk Acquisition, creation and effective use of warning systems Design and construction of buildings and infrastructure that promotes disaster resistance Alter attitudes to discourage risk-taking practices and susceptibility Improve the distribution of wealth and purchase insurance to minimize losses and promote resilience Understand behavioral patterns in disasters and pay attention to needs of special populations Help people to recognize risk and provide crisis counseling to enable resilience Improve provision of public health/emergency medical care before, during and after disasters Conserve natural resources, protect green space areas, and ensure that debris management is performed in an environmentally conscious manner Alter structure of political system and educate politicians and legislators about disasters Public Administration 11 FOCUS Foresight Security Scenarios Disciplines and Vulnerability (from Mcentire Disciplines, Disasters and Emergency management 2006) Vulnerability results from misguided laws, the failure to implement policies Strengthen response and recovery capabilities through preparedness measures, improved

12 FOCUS Transversal Drivers (D7.1-page 53) Intra-disciplinary Subject Cross-cutting nature of pan- European threats (terrorism, serious and organized crime, cybercrime and cybersecurity) and natural and man-made disasters and transversal challenges as drivers for cross-cutting EUcollaboration and strategies INFORMATION as an intra-disciplinary concept: 12 FOCUS Foresight Security Scenarios

13 New Security Studies are not always about Innovation Revisiting classical and traditional studies to post-modern challenges. For example: Understanding virtual threats such as Cyberwarfare with classical Clausewitz Strategic Concepts (Center of Gravity), IR Deterrence, Conflict Management A. Classical deterrence is optional between state actors when involved in cyber threats, especially under interconnectedness and interdependencies in a globalised era. B. Classical deterrence is relevant to state Center of Gravity C. In state and non state actor cyber threats, a center of gravity evolves within the conflict transformation. From deterrence of denial to classical deterrence, from an evasive, virtual opponent to a territorialized actor with a defined center of gravity 13 FOCUS Foresight Security Scenarios

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