1 Interaction between climate change and food security Alberto López-Asenjo Senior Adviser Resource Mobilization and Operations Support Service, TCSR Policy and Programme Development Support Division, TCS Technical Cooperation Department, TC Bilbao 7 de March 2012
2 Population Density, 2050
3 Slow-down in world population growth Source: UN, World Population Assessment 2006.
4 FAO s Vision, Goals, and Strategic Objectives Vision FAO s vision is of a world free of hunger and malnutrition where food and agriculture contribute to improving the living standards of all, especially the poorest, in an economically, socially and environmentally sustainable manner. Global Goals of Members To foster the achievement of this vision and of the Millennium Development Goals, FAO will promote the continuing contribution of food and sustainable agriculture to the attainment of these three global goals: a) Reduction of the absolute number of people suffering from hunger, progressively ensuring a world in which all people at all times have sufficient safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. b) Elimination of poverty and the driving forward of economic and social progress for all with increased food production, enhanced rural development and sustainable livelihoods. c) Sustainable management and utilization of natural resources, including land, water, air, climate and genetic resources, for the benefit of present and future generations. Source: FAO s Strategic Framework
5 FAO s Vision, Goals, and Strategic Objectives Strategic Objectives A. Sustainable intensification of crop production. B. Increased sustainable livestock production. C. Sustainable management and use of fisheries and aquaculture resources. D. Improved quality and safety of food at all stages of the food chain. E. Sustainable management of forests and trees. F. Sustainable management of land, water and genetic resources and improved responses to global environmental challenges affecting food and agriculture. G. Enabling environment for markets to improve livelihoods and rural development. H. Improved food security and better nutrition. I. Improved preparedness for, and effective response to, food and agricultural threats and emergencies. J. Gender equity in access to resources, goods, services and decision-making in the rural areas. K. Increased and more effective public and private investment in agriculture and rural development. Source: FAO s Strategic Framework
6 Challenges for agriculture in the 21st Century Meet the food needs of all 9.2 billion people by 2050 Sufficient, nutritious, affordable Meet additional demands from energy markets Cope with scarce resources and shift to more sustainable production methods Adapt to the agro-ecological changes related to climate change Contribute to Climate Change mitigation Contribute to the protection of livelihoods as agriculture transforms and markets are integrated 75% of poor live in rural areas
7 Demand drivers Population growth: billion in the next 40 years; +3.3 billion over the last 40 years +2.7 billion in urban areas, significant urbanization Highest growth in poorest region: Sub-Saharan Africa (+114%) Lowest growth in East and South East Asia (+14%) Income growth: Overall a richer world by % growth per annum for the world as a whole; higher in developing countries (5.2%); lower in industrial countries (1.9%) Less poverty, but not sure how much less.
8 Population growth and urbanization,
9 Food energy intakes, ( Developing Countries)
10 The food outlook: Demand Increases but by less than in the past Slow down in demand growth : Population growth slowdown, food satiation and urbanization. +70% between 2005/07 and 2050 vs. 148 % ( past 40 yrs) +1,000 million t of cereals annually (from 2,200 million t today) +200 million t of meats (from 270 million t today) +300 million t of soybeans (from 215 million t today) Food trade: rapid expansion overall DC net imports cereal: 125 million t 300 million t DC net exports oilseeds: 8 million t 25 million t DC net exports sugar: 10 million t 20 million t
11 Who will produce the food : The global food outlook to 2050 Baseline: How much more needs to be produced by 2050? (%)
12 How will we produce it?? Globally: 91% from increased yields and cropping intensities In developing countries: 79% from increased yields and cropping intensity Improved seeds More efficient input-use (especially water and fertilizer) Relatively small increase in cultivated area
13 Is there enough crop land? Huge potential: 4.2 billion ha 1.60 billion ha in use today, increase to 1.67 billion ha by 2050 But land reserves unevenly distributed: ample in SSA and LA, exhausted in NENA and SASIA 800 mha covered by forests, 200 mha in protected areas, 60 mha in settlements 75% of land potential is concentrated in 13 developing countries ( Sub- Saharan Africa and Latin America)
14 Climate Change and Agriculture : A two way street Emissions from agriculture account for roughly 14% of global greenhouse gas emissions. 74% of the emission from agriculture and most of the technical and economic mitigation potential from agriculture are in developing countries. Climate change affects agriculture in a number of ways
15 Impact of climate change Aggregate impacts of projected climate change on the global food system are relatively small. Shifts within the system unfavorable to poor countries. Autonomous adaptation to temperature shifts. Atmospheric changes (CO2 fertilization) may initially increase productivity of current agricultural land. Climate change, with and without CO2 fertilization will have a clearly negative impact in the second half of this century. CC impacts on land vary: Land suitability down in Africa and Latin America but up (initially) elsewhere. Changes in frequencies of extreme events (droughts, heat waves, severe storms) are more troublesome in the near term than gradual changes in average conditions.
16 Project impacts of climate change
17 Climate Imposes Constraints on World Ag Production
18 Adding Insult to Injury: Climate change and biofuels
19 Adaptations Will be Required Due to Global Warming Need adaptive plant (and animal) breeding, just as has been done successfully to relax physical constraints in given regions for more than a century, e.g. introduce more drought or heat tolerance. Change the mix of what crops are produced in a given geographic location Rely more on international trade.
20 Conclusions The world can produce enough food to feed itself by 2050 Picture is complicated by uncertainties regarding biofuels and climate change but basic conclusion remains Nothing is automatic...appropriate policies and investments are needed to exploit yield potential Where yield potential will be bridged will make a big difference for poverty and hunger reduction Producing enough food globally will not eliminate hunger access to food must also be increased Improving the performance of agriculture in developing countries is necessary to increase both food production and access to food basic livelihood for millions
21 Conclusions: Reversing Declines in Public R&D
22 Conclusions Use Agriculture as a force of development ( growth, poverty reduction, sustainable resource management)- political will Agriculture faces important market and agro-ecological risks and uncertainties : need to address market failures and provide incentives in a non-distortionary manner Increased public investment and appropriate policies are crucial for attracting private investment and supporting essential public services Infrastructure, research, capacity building Quality of investments is as important as quantity Focus on resilience and risk management given increasing volatility Sound regulatory framework and improved governance of the agrifood system
23 Diploma especial avanzado en Veterinaria, y Máster de Dirección de Empresas y Asuntos Comunitarios Consejero Principal del Departamento de Cooperación Técnica de la FAO. De junio de 2007 a Febrero 2011 ha sido Representante Permanente Adjunto de España ante la FAO y el PMA. De julio de 2002 a junio de 2007 ocupó el puesto de Director General de Estructuras y Mercados Pesqueros. Presidente del FROM de julio de 2002 hasta mayo de Consejero de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación en la Representación Permanente de España ante la Unión Europea en el período Consejero de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación en Marruecos en 1993 hasta 1996 Vicepresidente del Subcomité de Comercio Pesquero en la reunión celebrada en Santiago de Compostela (2006). Profesor en Jornadas y Seminarios: entre otros, de la Universidad de Santo Tomás de Aquino en Roma, Universidad de París, Universidad de Rennes, Centro de Estudios Europeos de Maastrich, Escuela Diplomática de Madrid, Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo. Miembro de la Real Academia de la Mar, de la Academia Española de Gastronomía, y de la Academia Internacional de Gastronomía. THANK YOU Distinciones y condecoraciones. - Encomienda de la Orden de Isabel la Católica. - Encomienda al Merito Civil. - Caballero de la Orden al Merito Agrícola de la República Francesa - Cruz de Plata de la Orden al Merito de la Guardia Civil. - Oficial de la Orden de Isabel la Católica - Medalla de Plata de ANFACO - Distinciones de ordenes de Caballería de Bélgica e Inglaterra