Concrete Evidence of NZ Expansion, Inflation. Quarterly. % change Real Retail Sales %
|
|
- Justin Shelton
- 8 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Markets Outlook 22 August 2011 Concrete Evidence of NZ Expansion, Inflation Evidence of recent NZ momentum, inflation Concrete production up in Q2, on Christchurch bounce Retail volumes likely 0.6% higher, ex-auto stronger Seasonal deficit of $200m for July s external trade? RBNZ inflation expectations survey due Tuesday Amid signs of domestic price pressures, via PPI/CGPI % change Real Retail Sales Forecasts RWC One of the reasons for the recent correction in financial markets has been the disappointing economic data, mainly in rich-world economies. Even before the wobbly indicators of July and August came through, many of the economies concerned were slowing abruptly. The US economy, for instance, sagged to a 0.3% increment in the April-June period. UK GDP decelerated to 0.2%, Germany s to 0.1% while France s economic activity stalled altogether in Q2. By comparison, we believe New Zealand s economic output acquitted itself well in the June quarter, and with much still to sustain the gains over the second half of With this in mind, there are already a number of inflation indicators strong enough (at this early stage of recovery) to keep the RBNZ honest and as much related to purely domestic pressures as commodity price strength. While it s early days for the hard indicators on local GDP, we ve already seen enough information to hold our growth estimate up at 0.4% (following Q1 s stronger than anticipated 0.8%, and the 0.5% expansion the quarter before that). The various business survey indicators, along with confidence, have certainly been encouraging in this regard. For concrete evidence the NZ economy retained good momentum in Q2 we can take the recent example of ready-mix concrete production. It bounced a bit, on the back of a sharp lift in the Christchurch area. This is BNZ, Statistics NZ Source: interesting on a number of levels. First, that it suggests the nation s building activity is doing better, perhaps a lot better, than is indicated by the still-weak consents data. This, in turn, probably relates to the fact there s a lot of work occurring that doesn t necessarily require formal consent, particularly as it relates to the Christchurch earthquakes. Overall, the concrete figures raise the likelihood of a lift in construction as measured in the GDP accounts. As for Thursday s Q2 retail trade report, we (and the Reuters median) expect this to show a further expansion in volumes, to the tune of 0.6%. The ex-auto gain will probably be stronger still, to our mind. This will follow on from a solid Q1 performance. Moreover, there were signs in July s electronic card transactions and credit card billings that real expenditure remained on the up into Q3. Wednesday s merchandise trade figures might be more difficult to draw GDP conclusions on. However, we do anticipate ongoing reasonable growth in both exports and imports, y/y, with a seasonally-impacted deficit of $236m for the month of July enough to hold the annual balance in moderate surplus. On this we are also reasonably close to market expectations. thousand meters cubed (s.a.) 250 Ready-Mix Concrete Production 120 % 3.2 CPI Inflation Expectations (2-year ahead) 230 Auckland Christchurch Source: BNZ, Statistics NZ Supposed mid-point of RBNZ target band Source: RBNZ, BNZ research.bnz.co.nz Page 1
2 Turning to inflation, the market s big focus will be on Tuesday afternoon s RBNZ Survey of Expectations. Even we were surprised to see this survey s 2-year-ahead CPI inflation view jump as high as 3.0% last quarter. Chances are we ll see a slight dip this time. However, unless it falls below 2.5%, it will remain one of a number of inflation pointers that are uncomfortably high for an economy at the early stages of recovery and broadly set to pick up a head of steam. Also note the RBNZ survey s expectations for GDP and the labour market, which will give a feel for how the business sector and analysts expect the macro-economy to progress in the near term. For more specific CPI indications we have Thursday s Food Price Index covering the month of July. Technically we expect a further jump, of 0.8%, although there is clearly a risk it falls by the wayside after the 1.4% spike it registered in June, partly related to lagged impacts of the Queensland floods. Relative to Australia, however, there is at least comfort to be drawn from the fact NZ residents are paying peanuts for bananas. While headline CPI computations are well worth thinking through, and inflation expectations too, we continue to stress it s the fundamental drivers of inflation we are most intently monitoring. In this respect, we found it very interesting to see the early signs of domestic price pressure in the likes of last week s Q2 Producer Prices Indexes and Capital Goods Price Index (CGPI). Both displayed construction sector inflation stronger than that seen in the construction component of the CPI. For example, the PPI construction output price index spiked 1.6% in the June quarter, to be 3.0% higher than a year ago, so faster than input costs (1.1%, 3.8% y/y). And remember, the PPI numbers are all ex-gst, in effect. The clearest pressure point was in Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction, whose PPI output price jumped 3.6% in Q2, to be 6.3% up on the same period last year. We saw a similar thing in the CGPI, whose price index for Civil Construction increased 2.8%, pushing its annual inflation to 5.3%. This could well be related to the earthquakes and associated infrastructural work. The doves will dismiss this as one-off. We prefer to see it as a precursor to more generalised construction sector inflation in store. It s not as though the standard (residential/non-residential) construction sector price indices are lying low. Indeed, they are showing signs of picking up too. For example, the residential index of the CGPI expanded 0.8% in the June quarter, the fastest since the GFC swung into town. Same for the non-residential building cost index and same for the Building Construction and Construction Services subcomponents of the PPI the swiftest since mid And it wasn t just construction sector inflation beginning to poke its nose up again. Many of the services-related PPI categories were experiencing renewed perkiness too. Output prices for Legal Services, for example, enlarged 1.2% in Q2, following 0.6% in Q1, while Accounting Services saw a price increase of 2.4%, for 4.4% y/y. Commercial rents, would you believe, lifted 1.0%, according to the PPI report. Of course, the more general way forth for NZ inflation, and the economy itself, has been severely clouded by the global turmoil of recent weeks. It s potentially very serious. In this sense, the markets might well be tempted to dismiss any rearguard strength in New Zealand s data. While we can t pretend to know where this latest global process is headed we would not want to jump to the conclusion that it means we can turn a blind eye to the clear evidence of robust NZ economic momentum, and building inflation pressure. Annual % change 12 Capital Goods Building Price Index Annual % change 5 Commercial Rents Residential Civil construction Non-residential Source: Statistics NZ, BNZ Source: BNZ, Statistics NZ craig_ebert@bnz.co.nz research.bnz.co.nz Page 2
3 Domestic Interest Rates The battle between on-shore and off-shore dynamics continue. Last week, off-shore developments gained an upper hand as risk appetite deteriorated toward the end of the week. The VIX index (a proxy for risk aversion) spiked from 32 to 43 over the course of the week. NZ 2- year swap yields declined 7bps to 3.27%, while 10-year yields fell 10bps to 4.79%. However, 2-year yields remain someway above their recent lows of 3.10%, but at the lower end of their trading band since April this year. The 2s-10s spread has narrowed to 152bps. Mediumterm, we expect curve flattening pressure to continue, taking the 2s-10s spread toward 100bps in a year s time. Market expectations for RBNZ and RBA rate moves in the coming year have fallen to 40bps and -150bps respectively. We believe both are too pessimistic and will ultimately be revised higher, as current global market volatility eases. We continue to expect more than 100bps of rate hikes from the RBNZ in the coming year, starting with a 50bps hike in December. We ultimately see the OCR peaking at 5.0% in On this basis we see clear value in hedging interest rate risk on a 2-5year time horizon, though can understand participants reluctance to do so, given heightened global uncertainty. While the risk of the r word in the US has definitely increased in recent weeks, it is also important to step back from the emotive pull of daily volatility in equity markets. While the NZ economy will not be immune from downward revisions to growth forecasts in the US and Europe, it is worth remembering that these economies combined constitute just 20% of NZ s direct export markets. The NZ economy remains on a solid footing and inflationary pressures can not be ignored indefinitely. In this regard, tomorrow s RBNZ Q3 inflation expectations data will be important. While the reading may tick down from Q2 s 3.0% reading (a 20 year high), we expect it to remain uncomfortably elevated. This will keep domestic inflation risks in the RBNZ s view, even as global uncertainties prevail. Interest Rate Technicals NZD 5yr Swap Rate Outlook: Lower MT Resistance: 4.50% MT Support: 3.81% As expected we traded lower last week. Expect this to extend towards support at 3.81 Reuters pgs BNZL BNZM NZ bond yields fell 6 to 8bps along the curve last week. The yield on 21s fell 6bps to 4.42%, a new low since March Australian 10-year bond yields, however, have fallen even more sharply over the week taking them below NZ yields, to 4.23%. The AU-NZ 10-year bond spread has fallen from 6bps to almost -20bps in the past week, making NZ yields attractive on a relative basis. Last week, US 10-year yields traded from near 2.30% to 2.06%, around December 2008 lows. Intra-week they had bounced off lows of 1.97%. That is their lowest level in at least 50-years, as markets price in a muted US growth outlook, exacerbated by proposed fiscal tightening. German 10-year yields showed similar dynamics, trading from 2.35% to 2.10%, touching an all-time low of 2.03% intra-week. German Chancellor Merkel rejected calls for eurobonds to be issued, to solve the regions debt problems, saying At this time eurobonds are precisely the wrong answer. She also emphasised that policy would not be driven by market demands. Tomorrow s inflation expectations data along with Wednesday s trade and Thursday s retail sales data should confirm that the NZ economy is on a sound footing and inflation pressures remain. These factors alone suggest much higher domestic yields are warranted. However, expect markets to remain volatile, and focused on global factors, as markets move toward the meeting of global central banks at Jackson Hole on Friday. Markets will be focusing on whether Bernanke has another rabbit to pull out of the hat, at the gathering. 90 day 04/13 05/21 2yr swaps 10yr swaps 2yr/10yr bills NZGS NZGS s/a s/a swaps(bps) 12-Aug % 2.94% 4.45% 3.34% 4.89% Aug % 2.94% 4.42% 3.27% 4.79% 152 Change (bps) kymberly_martin@bnz.co.nz pete_mason@bnz.co.nz NZ 2yr-5yr Swap Spread (yield curve) Outlook: Neutral MT Resistance: +96 MT Support: +80 The market is doing some work here and await a breakout of +96/+80 near term range to enter new trade. NZD 5-yr Swap Daily NZD 2-5yr Swap Spread Daily research.bnz.co.nz Page 3
4 Foreign Exchange Market Reuters pg BNZWFWDS Ongoing concerns around global growth saw equity markets struggle and measures of risk aversion remain very elevated, over the past week. The S&P500 index and Euro Stoxx 50 index ended the week down 4.7% and 6.4% respectively. The VIX index (a proxy for risk aversion) surged from 34 to 43, just shy of its highest level since June In the US, the market focused on the Philadelphia Federal business outlook survey, which fell to its lowest level since March In Europe, the meeting between German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy disappointed as they failed to announce the issuance of eurobonds. The issuance of eurobonds could help to provide cheaper funding and impose tighter fiscal rules on the peripheral European economies. NZD/USD spent the first half of the week oscillating around as global risk sentiment stabilised. However, NZD/USD fell back to as global risk sentiment deteriorated on Thursday and Friday. While trading on NZD/USD remains volatile, the currency appears to have stabilised within a to range. We expect the currency meet strong resistance above so long as concerns over global growth remain in focus. In contrast, a further deterioration in global risk sentiment will be needed to sustain NZD/USD below Looking beyond the next week, we continue to forecast NZD/USD moving back towards the post-float high by the end of September. To our mind, such a move would only require risk sentiment stabilising at more normal levels. Indeed, the recent global ructions have done little to change our core view of a strong domestic recovery and need for the RBNZ to hike rates. We expect 125bps of hikes from the RBNZ over the next 12 months, in contrast to current interest rate pricing of 40bps of hikes. The risk-off sentiment weighed more heavily on the NZD relative to the AUD last week. This saw NZD/AUD fall from at the beginning of the week to currently. While the medium-term fundamentals still remain constructive for a move higher, there is a risk pricing of 150bps of RBA cuts over the next 12 months reverses. Indeed, a testimony by RBA governor Stevens and speech by RBA deputy governor Battellino during the week could provide a near-term catalyst for the interest rate market to reassess expectations of rate cuts. This would put downward pressure on the cross. However, we would v iew any move below as overdone based off mediumterm fundamentals. Despite the move lower in NZD/AUD, the implied fair value range from our NZD/AUD model has remained unchanged at to over the week. The NZ-AU 3-year interest rate differential is currently -73bps, from -77bps at the beginning of the week. This suggests some upside to the cross if global sentiment stabilises. Over the next 12 months we expect the cross to gradually appreciate to The NZD struggled against the better supported EUR and GBP. NZD/EUR started the week at , but dribbled lower on Thursday and Friday to close around The NZD lost ground against a resurgent GBP, with the cross falling from to currently. While risk sentiment is weighing on the NZD currently, should global risk sentiment stabilise we would expect NZ s relative interest rate and growth differential with the Eurozone and UK to help reverse the recent losses. The focus for the week ahead will be on Friday s meeting of central bank governors at Jackson Hole. In particular, the market will focus on Fed Chairman Bernanke s speech for any hints of further quantitative easing. Locally, the week ahead does warrant some attention when we re not staring at the offshore news wires. Tomorrow s RBNZ survey of inflation expectations will be important given the previous outturn was at the top of the central bank s target inflation band. On the activity front, we expect Thursday s Q2 retail trade report to show a further expansion in volumes of 0.6%. For Wednesday s merchandise trade figures we anticipate ongoing reasonable growth in exports and imports, y/y, with a seasonally-impacted deficit of $236m for the month of July. mike_burrowes@bnz.co.nz Foreign Exchange Technicals NZD/USD Outlook: Buy a dip ST Resistance: (ahead of ) ST Support: (ahead of ) We favour buying a dip in NZD/USD below Look for a move back to Good medium-term support around mike_burrowes@bnz.co.nz NZD/AUD Outlook: Buy ST Resistance: (ahead of ) ST Support: (ahead of ) We favour buying the cross here as it is below the recent range. Good medium-term support is seen around and then NZD/USD Daily NZD/AUD Daily research.bnz.co.nz Page 4
5 Key Upcoming Events Forecast Median Last Forecast Median Last Monday 22 August US, Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, July Tuesday 23 August NZ, RBNZ Survey of Expectations, Aug (2-yr ahead) +3.0% Aus, RBA's Battellino Speaks China, PMI (HSBC), August (flash) 48.9 Euro, PMI Manufacturing, August 1st est Euro, PMI Services, August 1st est Germ, ZEW Sentiment, August UK, CBI Industrial Trends, August US, New Home Sales, July 312k 312k Wednesday 24 August NZ, English Speaks, HK/NZ Business Assoc NZ, Merchandise Trade, July -$236m -$150m +$230m Aus, Building Work Done, Q2 flat +1.0% +0.7% Euro, Industrial Orders, June +0.4% +3.6% Germ, IFO Index, August US, Durables Orders, July +2.1% -1.9% Thursday 25 August NZ, Retail Trade, Q2 vol s.a. +0.6% +0.6% +0.9% NZ, Food Price Index, July +0.8% +1.4% UK, CBI Dist Trade Survey, August US, Jobless Claims, week ended 20/08 405k 408k Friday 26 August Aus, Stevens Testifies Jpn, CPI, July y/y flat -0.4% Euro, M3, June y/y +2.2% +2.1% Germ, (circa) Retail Sales - vol, July +6.3% UK, GDP, Q2 2nd est +0.2% +0.2%P US, Bernanke Speaks, Jackson Hole US, GDP, Q2 2nd est +1.1% +1.3%P US, Mich Cons Confidence, Aug 2nd est P Monday 29 August Aus, HIA New Home Sales, July -8.7% US, Personal Spending, July +0.5% -0.2% US, Pending Home Sales, July -0.8% +2.4% Historical Data Today Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago Today Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago CASH & BANK BILLS Call mth mth mth mth GOVERNMENT STOCK 11/ / / / / CORPORATE BONDS BNZ 05/ BNZ 09/ FON 04/ FON 03/ GEN 03/ GEN 03/ TRP 06/ SWAP RATES 2 years years years years FOREIGN EXCHANGE NZD/USD NZD/AUD NZD/JPY NZD/EUR NZD/GBP NZD/CAD TWI NZD Outlook TWI New Zealand Dollar NZD TWI NZD/USD (rhs) Source: BNZ, RBNZ Monthly F/C NZD/USD research.bnz.co.nz Page 5
6 Contact Details Stephen Toplis Head of Research +(64 4) Craig Ebert Senior Economist +(64 4) Doug Steel Economist +(64 4) Mike Burrowes Strategist +(64 4) Kymberly Martin Strategist +(64 4) Main Offices Wellington 60 Waterloo Quay Private Bag Wellington Mail Centre Lower Hutt 5045 New Zealand Phone: +(64 4) FI: Fax: +(64 4) Auckland 80 Queen Street Private Bag Auckland 1142 New Zealand Phone: +(64 9) Toll Free: Christchurch 81 Riccarton Road PO Box 1461 Christchurch 8022 New Zealand Phone: +(64 3) Toll Free: National Australia Bank Peter Jolly Head of Research +(61 2) Alan Oster Group Chief Economist +(61 3) Rob Henderson Chief Economist, Markets +(61 2) John Kyriakopoulos Currency Strategist +(61 2) Wellington Foreign Exchange Fixed Income/Derivatives Sydney Foreign Exchange Fixed Income/Derivatives +(61 2) London Foreign Exchange Fixed Income/Derivatives +(44 20) New York Foreign Exchange Fixed Income/Derivatives Hong Kong Foreign Exchange +(85 2) Fixed Income/Derivatives +(85 2) HOUR FOREIGN EXCHANGE SERVICE Phone Toll Free 6am to 10pm NZT Wellington Office pm to 6am NZT London Office Sam Hehir ANALYST DISCLAIMER: The person or persons named as the author(s) of this report hereby certify that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject securities and issuers and other subject matters discussed. No part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the research report. Research analysts responsible for this report receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of the Markets Division of National Australia Bank Limited, a member of the National Australia Bank Group ( NAB ). The views of the author(s) do not necessarily reflect the views of NAB and are subject to change without notice. NAB may receive fees for banking services provided to an issuer of securities mentioned in this report. NAB, its affiliates and their respective officers, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report (subject to the policies of NAB), may also from time to time maintain a long or short position in, or purchase or sell a position in, hold or act as advisors, brokers or commercial bankers in relation to the securities (or related securities and financial instruments), of companies mentioned in this report. NAB or its affiliates may engage in these transactions in a manner that is inconsistent with or contrary to any recommendations made in this report. NEW ZEALAND DISCLAIMER: This publication has been provided for general information only. Although every effort has been made to ensure this publication is accurate the contents should not be relied upon or used as a basis for entering into any products described in this publication. To the extent that any information or recommendations in this publication constitute financial advice, they do not take into account any person s particular financial situation or goals. Bank of New Zealand strongly recommends readers seek independent legal/financial advice prior to acting in relation to any of the matters discussed in this publication. Neither Bank of New Zealand nor any person involved in this publication accepts any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever may directly or indirectly result from any advice, opinion, information, representation or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, contained in this publication. US DISCLAIMER: This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited or one of its affiliates or subsidiaries ( NAB ). If it is distributed in the United States, such distribution is by nabsecurities, LLC which accepts responsibility for its contents. Any U.S. person receiving this information wishes further information or desires to effect transactions in the securities described herein should call or write to nabsecurities, LLC, 28th Floor, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY (or call (877) ). The information contained herein has been obtained from, and any opinions herein are based upon, sources believed to be reliable and no guarantees, representations or warranties are made as to its accuracy, completeness or suitability for any purpose. Any opinions or estimates expressed in this information is our current opinion as of the date of this report and is subject to change without notice. The principals of nabsecurities, LLC or NAB may have a long or short position or may transact in the securities referred to herein or hold or transact derivative instruments, including options, warrants or rights with securities, or may act as a market maker in the securities discussed herein and may sell such securities to or buy from customers on a principal basis. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities described herein or for any other action. It is intended for the information of clients only and is not for publication in the press or elsewhere. National Australia Bank Limited is not a registered bank in New Zealand. research.bnz.co.nz Page 6
Bond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks
Bond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary August 1 christian@harbourasset.co.nz + 89 Global bond yields stabilised in July, as markets weighed up two opposing
More informationStatement to Parliamentary Committee
Statement to Parliamentary Committee Opening Remarks by Mr Glenn Stevens, Governor, in testimony to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Sydney, 14 August 2009. The Bank s Statement
More informationA Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off
A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary February 2013 Christian@harbourasset.co.nz +64 4 460 8309 Just like 2011 and 2012, the start of a new year has again prompted
More informationMonthly Economic Dashboard
RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves
More informationINFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor
INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 4 th February 2016 Opening remarks by the Governor Good afternoon. At its meeting yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 9-0 to maintain Bank Rate
More informationResearch US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined
Investment Research General Market Conditions 11 February 2016 Research US Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed sidelined In our view, the uncertainty in financial markets and rising risk of a systemic
More informationSouth Korea economic comment
October South Korea economic comment Key trends Optimism about the economy is growing, following a stronger-than-expected result in the June quarter national accounts and a raft of monthly data since then
More informationState of the Stock Market in Singapore
Backbone NZ growth story fighting back As firms work to absorb burgeoning labour supply But a slightly rising jobless rate nonetheless Dairy price decline, Wednesday, unlikely a trendsetter QV housing
More informationEconomic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015
Economic Data October 29, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep 1.00% -0.60% -1.20% AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q3
More informationMarkit Global Business Outlook Survey
News Release EMBARGOED UNTIL: 00:01 (UK), 14 July 2014 Markit Global Business Outlook Survey Worldwide business confidence wanes Global optimism slips from two-year high Waning confidence centred on eurozone
More informationMarkets Roundup. Research. US data show that deflation risks are rising
Markets Roundup August 24 t h, 29 C O N T E N T S Market Movers 2 Economics Weekly Calendar 5 Central Bank Policies 6 US data show that deflation risks are rising Research Although Chinese equities have
More informationEconomic Data. October 01, 2015. September 30, 2015. October 01, 2015
Economic Data September 30, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD Building Permits M/M Aug -4.90% 20.40% GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Sep 3 5 7 JPY Industrial Production M/M Aug P -0.50%
More informationAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK The AUD Still finding support Tuesday, 10 July 2012 Concerns regarding global economic growth have pushed commodity prices and the AUD lower since edging above $US1.08 in January.
More informationNivesh Daily Currency
Nivesh Daily Currency February 3, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 68.27 0.20 6.75-3.2 68.3550 68.2025 68.1175 EURINR 74.50 0.67 20.16-10.6
More informationStrategy German engine in headwind
Investment Research General Market Conditions 9 October 2015 Strategy German engine in headwind German economic data have started to show weakness and, in our view, more softness is looming. This is because
More informationPlease note the Weekly Market Commentary will be on hiatus until January 5, 2014.
Weekly Market Commentary: December 16, 2013 Will 2014 Bring An End to Central Bank Intervention? Please note the Weekly Market Commentary will be on hiatus until January 5, 2014. Economic Data - Previous
More informationIs US consumer spending finally about to wilt?
January 8 Is US consumer spending finally about to wilt? Key trends Moderate growth in consumer spending has continued to cushion the US economy against an otherwise deeper slowdown, underpinned in turn
More informationNZD: Another Strong Month
NZD: Another Strong Month NZD up 5.5% in June, despite the shock Brexit vote Dovish Fed; hawkish RBNZ and soft USD a factor Robust local data amidst global worries, another factor.73 over June 216 Brief.73
More information2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013
2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%
More informationNivesh Daily Currency
Nivesh Daily Currency February 10, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 68.13-0.08-5.44-6.96 68.3367 68.2183 67.9942 EURINR 76.35 0.62
More informationMarkit Global Business Outlook Survey
News Release EMBARGOED UNTIL: :1 (UK), 1 March 14 Markit Global Business Outlook Survey Developed world set to lead strengthening global upturn in 14 Global business optimism hits two-year high Improved
More informationWhy ECB QE is Negative for Commodities. Investment Research & Advisory. Deltec International Group
Atul Lele alele@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4135 David Munoz dmunoz@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4106 David Frazer dfrazer@deltecinv.com +1 242 302 4156 Why ECB QE is Negative for Commodities Recent ECB Quantitative
More informationDaily FX Focus. 31-Dec-2014
Australia FX Pick:AUD/USD Nov private sector credit rose 5.9% YoY, as expected. AUD/USD was consolidating in a range of 0.8122-0.8203 levels. AUD/USD s short-term support is at 0.8070, and resistance is
More informationBond markets vote for global recovery
Bond markets vote for global recovery Weekly Market View 11 May 2015 1 % Euro area recovery, oil rebound lead to bond sell-off German bund yields recovered from record low levels, leading a surge in global
More informationLearn Forex Fundamentals from the Pros Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg www.bkforex.com
Learn Forex Fundamentals from the Pros Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg www.bkforex.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be
More informationEconomic Data. November 20, 2015. November 19, 2015
Economic Data November 19, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q3 1.60% 0.10% -0.30% NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q3 1.30% 0.20% -0.20% JPY Trade
More informationNAB Online Retail Sales Index In depth report July 2014
NAB Online Retail Sales Index In depth report July Table. Key online retail statistics Total online Index Domestic sales International sales May YOY growth (%) Jun Jul May MOM growth (% sa, 3mma) Jun Jul
More informationHow To Get Through The Month Of August
London Market Snapshot October 2015 10/15 Global Macro Overview Global equities experienced their sharpest falls since 2011, with most major markets moving into correction territory (a fall of more than
More informationMACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MAY 20 Koç Holding CONTENTS Global Economy... 3 Global Financial Markets... 3 Global Economic Growth Forecasts... 3 Turkey Macroeconomic Indicators... Economic Growth... Industrial
More informationRussia: Where to find new growth drivers?
Russia: Where to find new growth drivers? Sanna Kurronen Economist +38 4 68 369 sanna.kurronen@danskebank.com 14 February 213 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page of this report.
More informationCIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering
CIO Flash U.S. Fed tapering 19 December 2013 The art of tapering without spoiling markets (I) Final decision and first reaction Taper light, with strengthened forward guidance The Federal Open Market Committee
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation 02 NOVEMBER 201 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-777-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp Overview The Bank of
More informationFOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well
Investment Research General Market Conditions 27 January 2016 FOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well As expected, the Fed funds target rate was unchanged at 0.25%-0.50%.
More informationManaging FX Risk when trading with Australia. Mark Coulam Senior Manager, Treasury Solutions.
Managing FX Risk when trading with Australia Mark Coulam Senior Manager, Treasury Solutions. Reducing Volatility in your business What does your business have exposure to? Where does it occur? Quantify
More informationCommodities not finding much traction despite USD weakness
Commodities not finding much traction despite USD weakness Commodities continued to show weakness into the second week of 2013 despite rising stock markets and a falling US dollar. Investors are generally
More informationNAB Business Survey - AUD Insights
NAB Business Survey - AUD Insights by NAB Group Economics September Quarter 15 The NAB Quarterly Business Survey provides a rich source of information about Australian business, their behaviours and the
More informationWhat is the outlook for the Australian dollar?
What is the outlook for the Australian dollar? Listen to audio via your computer speakers or headset, or you may phone in to listen via the number on your reminder email. The Questions Pane Moderator Jackson
More informationEUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the
More informationEconomic Snapshot January 2013
January 2013 In summary January saw 2013 begin on a good note with strong gains on local markets. In percentage terms the Australian share market rose approximately 5%. This means the market has risen
More informationAbsolute return: The search for positive returns in changing markets
Absolute return: The search for positive returns in changing markets Tuesday, 7 June 2011 Portfolio Manager for Global Fixed Income and Absolute Return Funds www.dbadvisors.com Topics for discussion What
More informationRECENT MORTGAGE RATE HIKES IN CANADA ANSWERS TO SOME COMMON QUESTIONS
OBSERVATION TD Economics RECENT MORTGAGE RATE HIKES IN CANADA ANSWERS TO SOME COMMON QUESTIONS With a continued decline in interest rates since the mid-199s, Canadians are used to low (and falling) mortgage
More informationCANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014. Factors supporting the U.S. sales outlook: Employment Growth
93619 CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014 Canadian and U.S. auto sales have strengthened significantly from recession lows. Canadian new motor vehicle sales have surprised
More informationNonfarm Payrolls Jump 321K in November
Economic Analysis Nonfarm Payrolls Jump 321K in November Kim Fraser Chase Employment growth was a jaw-dropper in November, up an astounding 321K following a revised 243K gain in October. This marks the
More informationTop five superannuation myths busted
www.nestlesuper.com.au December 2015 Top five superannuation myths busted We want to help you make good decisions about your super, and to do that it s important to know the facts. So we thought we d bust
More information96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* FDI Portfolio Investment Other investment
Chartbook Contact: Sebastian Becker +49 69 91-3664 Global Risk Analysis The unwinding of Yen carry trades Some empirical evidence 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 October 31, 28 Many years before the sub-prime crisis hit
More informationAre we living in a Bond Bubble? Oliver Sinnott Fixed Income Strategist April 2014
Are we living in a Bond Bubble? Oliver Sinnott Fixed Income Strategist April 2014 Global Financial Crisis saw debt levels soar to highest since WWII Governments were too highly indebted to significantly
More informationDOLLARS & SENSE TD Economics
DOLLARS & SENSE TD Economics THE FED S MESSAGE IS CLEAR: GET READY FOR HIGHER POLICY RATES Highlights Economic data and hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve members have re-adjusted market expectations
More informationGlovista Global Perspectives
Issue 65 May/15 Monthly Newsletter for Global Investors Glovista Global Perspectives This issue : S&P Sector Performance P.2 Ccy and Cmdty Performance P.3 Important Interest Rates P.4 Carlos Asilis, Ph.D.
More informationProject LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia
Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University
More informationGold Recap. Spread JAN6 FEB6 APR6 JUN6 DEC5 1.3 1.3 0.6-0.3 JAN6 - -0.7-1.6 FEB6-0.7-1.6 APR6-0.9. OI Gold. Chg.
Economic Data December 21, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Oct 1.00% 0.80% -0.20% JPY BoJ Monthly Report EUR German PPI M/M Nov -0.20% -0.20% -0.40%
More informationEconomic Data. International Market Recap. September 21, 2015. September 18, 2015
Economic Data September 18, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY BoJ Minutes EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jul 22.6B 21.3B 25.4B CAD CPI M/M Aug 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% CAD CPI Y/Y Aug
More informationFixed Income Market Comments
Strategy Fixed Income Weekly Fixed Income Market Comments Weaker economic data and comments from a couple of Federal Reserve Board Governors, who tend to not to speak often as the Federal Reserve District
More informationEconomic indicators dashboard
AS OF NOVEMBER 17, 2015 Economic indicators dashboard Vist www.blog.helpingadvisors.com for the full commentary of the Economic Indicators Dashboard. MOST RECENT 3-MO. trend TYPICAL range EXTREME range
More informationMonetary Policy Statement
Monetary Policy Statement September 1 1 This Statement is made pursuant to Section 15 of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 199. Contents 1. Policy assessment. Overview and key policy judgements 3. Financial
More informationWhy Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 2015 March 2015
Why Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 5 March 5 PERSPECTIVES Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Gabriele Oriolo Analyst Global Asset Allocation Research While
More informationPERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT
PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT FOR PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT () PRODUCTS WITH AN ANNUAL FUND MANAGEMENT CHARGE OF 1% - JULY 201 Thank
More informationpercentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6
South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo on Delivery 28 January 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo Delivery 21 July 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank The UK vote to
More informationFOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-2016)
2750 14th Avenue, Suite 30 Markham Ontario, Canada, L3R 0B Fax: 1.8.20.1740 FOREX CURRENCY FORECAST (2015-201) FOREX MAJORS (USD) 2015 201 SPOT Q1a Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Canadian Dollar USD/CAD 1.27
More informationFixed Income Market Comments
Strategy Fixed Income Weekly Fixed Income Market Comments Yields moved higher last week as the final reading of second quarter economic growth (GDP) was higher than expected at 3.9% (forecast at 3.7%)
More informationStatement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services
For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives
More informationTHE POTENTIAL MACROECONOMIC EFFECT OF DEBT CEILING BRINKMANSHIP
OCTOBER 2013 THE POTENTIAL MACROECONOMIC EFFECT OF DEBT CEILING BRINKMANSHIP Introduction The United States has never defaulted on its obligations, and the U. S. dollar and Treasury securities are at the
More informationRenminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy
Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy If the recent weakness of the renminbi persists, it is likely to have a positive direct impact
More informationGrowth and volatility will define global economy in 2016, says PineBridge Investments
Growth and volatility will define global economy in 2016, says PineBridge Investments PineBridge Investments forecasts 2.7% GDP growth in the United States Eurozone growth projected to slightly improve
More informationSpectrum Insights. Time to float. Why invest in corporate bonds? - Value
Spectrum Insights Damien Wood, Principal JUNE 25, 2015 Time to float Investing in floating rate bonds as opposed to fixed rate bonds helps protect bond investors from price slumps. Spectrum expects that
More informationThe recent volatility of high-yield bonds: Spreads widen though fundamentals stay strong
Investment Insights The recent volatility of high-yield bonds: Spreads widen though fundamentals stay strong Kevin Lorenz, CFA, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager of TIAA-CREF's High-Yield Fund
More informationMORE UPSIDE FOR THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
Dec. 23 Jan. 2 ECONOMY AND STRATEGY 51.879.2529 Clément Gignac Strategist and Chief Economist Stéfane Marion Assistant Chief Economist Paul-André Pinsonnault Senior Fixed Income Economist Marc Pinsonneault
More informationWeekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Dec 9, 2013 with data as of Dec 6. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast
Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight Weekly FX Insight Dec 9, 2013 with data as of Dec 6 Market Review & Focus FX Analysis Weekly FX Recap 01 USD/JPY 04 NZD/USD 05 Upcoming Economic Figures GBP/USD
More informationCommBank Accounting Market Pulse Conducted by Beaton Research + Consulting
CommBank Accounting Market Pulse Conducted by Beaton Research + Consulting July 215 COMMBANK ACCOUNTING MARKET PULSE JULY 215 Contents Foreword 2 Economic outlook 3 Snapshot of survey findings 5 Business
More informationGlobal high yield: We believe it s still offering value December 2013
Global high yield: We believe it s still offering value December 2013 02 of 08 Global high yield: we believe it s still offering value Patrick Maldari, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager North American Fixed
More informationNAB Online Retail Sales Index Indepth report October 2013
NAB Online Retail Sales Index Indepth report October Chart : Growth in online sales vs. retail sales (%, mom) - Apr- Jan- Oct- Jul- Apr- Online Index (sa, MMA) ABS retail sales (ex. takeaway food) (sa,
More informationPutin faith in the Russian Ruble?
Putin faith in the Russian Ruble? Chris Tevere, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist FOREX.COM 8 January 2013 The ruble has gained in popularity in recent years. It is considered part of the well-respected
More informationIntroduction B.2 & B.3 111
Risks and Scenarios Introduction The forecasts presented in the Economic and Tax Outlook chapter incorporate a number of judgements about how both the New Zealand and the world economies evolve. Some judgements
More informationX. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/
1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably
More informationJanuary 2015 business.westernunion.com.au
Western Union Business Solutions Currency Outlook January 2015 business.westernunion.com.au What s coming up Steven Dooley Currency Strategist APAC 2 History in the making! These are historic times US
More informationBest Essay from a First Year Student
RBA ECONOMICS COMPETITION 2010 Appreciation of Australia s real exchange rate: causes and effects Best Essay from a First Year Student ASHVINI RAVIMOHAN The University of New South Wales Appreciation of
More informationChapter 1.3. Fundamentals Make Currency Pairs Move
Chapter 1.3 Fundamentals Make Currency Pairs Move 0 FUNDAMENTALS MAKE CURRENCY PAIRS MOVE The key to making money in the Forex is understanding what makes currency pairs move. Ultimately, it is investors
More informationHow To Predict The Economic Growth Of New Zealand
All Eyes On The Skies Agriculture production constrained Lower stock numbers suggest so We brace for El Nino impact Primary production expected to be a direct drag on growth Dairy revenue to lift, as prices
More informationCapital preservation strategy update
Client Education Summit 2012 Capital preservation strategy update Head of Institutional Fixed Income Investments, Americas October 9, 2012 Topics for discussion 1 Capital preservation strategies 2 3 4
More informationBANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the
BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information September 7, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the General interest rate for September
More informationGlobal Financials Update April 13, 2012
Global Financials Update April 13, 2012 Global Market Update After posting a fairly strong and consistent rally over much of the last six months, the global equity markets have changed course over the
More informationThe Credit Crisis: A Monetary Explanation
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Global Economics The Credit Crisis: A Monetary Explanation Joachim Fels Chief Global Fixed Income Economist & Co-Head of Global Economics 33 rd Annual IOSCO Conference
More informationForex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015
Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015 Moderate recovery continues in advanced economies, but a weakening of activity in emerging economies is adding to global deflationary pressures Further
More informationHow Smaller Stocks May Offer Larger Returns
Strategic Advisory Solutions April 2015 How Smaller Stocks May Offer Larger Returns In an environment where the US continues to be the growth engine of the developed world, investors may find opportunity
More informationWEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK - An Overview p3 p4 p5 p6 p7 p8 p9 Disclaimer Waiting For GBP Rally - Peter Rosenstreich Canada Officially Enters Recession - Yann Quelenn
More informationThe U.S. Economy after September 11. 1. pushing us from sluggish growth to an outright contraction. b and there s a lot of uncertainty.
Presentation to the University of Washington Business School For delivery November 15, 2001 at approximately 8:05 AM Pacific Standard Time (11:05 AM Eastern) By Robert T. Parry, President and CEO of the
More informationWhy the Lack of Inflation Is a Problem
Why the Lack of Inflation Is a Problem May 21, 2013 by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent Equity Markets Keep Pace Equity markets continued on their tear last week, rising for the fourth straight week.
More informationBond Market Insights October 10, 2014
Bond Market Insights October 10, 2014 by John Simms, CFA and Jerry Wiesner, CFA General Bond Market Treasury yields rose in September as prices fell. Yields in the belly of the curve (5- to 7-year maturities)
More informationEmployment is reassuring in Canada, but disappointing in the United States
February 7, 2014 Employment is reassuring in Canada, but disappointing in the United States Highlights United States: The year starts slowly for employment. United States: ISM manufacturing index plunges.
More informationBlue. Why U.S. Interest Rates Will Rise IN BRIEF. May 2013
Blue paper Why U.S. Interest Rates Will Rise IN BRIEF May 2013 10-year Treasury yields have become disconnected from economic fundamentals. We believe interest rates will gradually pull higher due to the
More informationMonetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market
Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 Fax +41 44 631 39 10 Zurich, 13 September 2007 Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market The
More informationForeign Exchange Investments Discover the World of Currencies. Private Banking USA
Foreign Exchange Investments Discover the World of Currencies Credit Suisse Securities (USA) llc Private Banking USA 2 Foreign exchange: There s no ignoring the largest market in the world. Introduction
More informationMyHome Property Report, Q3 2015: Slowdown continues
Davy Research Irish economy September 3 215 MyHome Property Report, Q3 215: Slowdown continues DAVY VIEW The MyHome.ie asking price data for Q3 suggest that the slowdown in Irish house price inflation
More informationThe market starts to adjust to a possible Federal Reserve rate hike in June
May 20, 2016 The market starts to adjust to a possible Federal Reserve rate hike in June Highlights United States: Housing starts, industrial output and energy prices rebound. Canada: Manufacturing, wholesale
More informationThe Fix Fixed income flashback: is history going to repeat?
December 2014 For professional investors only The Fix Fixed income flashback: is history going to repeat? Kellie Wood, Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income Traditional financial theory portends that bond prices
More information6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1 Australia s Trading Partner Growth* Year-average RBA forecast
6. Economic Outlook The International Economy Overall, growth of Australia s major trading partners (MTPs) is expected to be a bit above its long-run average in 014 and 015 (Graph 6.1). Forecasts for most
More informationEUR/USD Tips and Trading Strategies. Kathy Lien www.bkforex.com
EUR/USD Tips and Trading Strategies Kathy Lien www.bkforex.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.
More informationA profile of the NZ dollar foreign exchange market 1
ARTICLES A profile of the NZ dollar foreign exchange market Nick Smyth, Financial Stability Department In this article we review developments in the market between January and March using a new and detailed
More informationHousehold Borrowing Behaviour: Evidence from HILDA
Household Borrowing Behaviour: Evidence from HILDA Ellis Connolly and Daisy McGregor* Over the 199s and the first half of the s, household debt grew strongly in response to lower nominal interest rates
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo Delivery 19 May 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South Africa s
More information