The Evolution of the U.S. Telecommunications Infrastructure Over the Next Decade

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1 The Evolution of the U.S. Telecommunications Infrastructure Over the Next Decade The Role of Optical Fiber in Future Networks Technology Task Group 1 (TTG-1) Task Description: TTG-1: To identify the likely development of optical fiber technologies over the next decade and to identify likely architecture(s) of the future telecommunications infrastructure that would include these fiber optic technologies. Members: Tompkins, Esty, Pearsall, Morris, Sandino, Mysore, Boyer Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction 2.0 Services 2.1 Existing Services 2.2 Future Services 3.0 Current Role of Fiber Optics 3.1 Cable TV 3.2 Incumbent Local Exchange Carrier (ILEC) 3.3 Competitive Local Exchange Carrier (CLEC), Utility, and Municipality 4.0 Feasibility of Fiber to the Home/Building (FTTH/B) 4.1 Cable TV 4.2 Incumbent Local Exchange Carrier (ILEC) 4.3 Competitive Local Exchange Carrier (CLEC), Utility, and Municipality 5.0 Likely All-Fiber Architectures 5.1 Passive Optical Networks (PON) 5.2 Actives 5.3 Dense Wave Division Multiplexing (DWDM) 6.0 Technical Challenges 6.1 Lifeline Power 6.2 Which Signal Protocol? 6.3 Fit with Existing Architectures and Equipment 6.4 Customer Premises Equipment (CPE) 7.0 Non-Technical Challenges 7.1 Regulation 7.2 Economics 7.3 Motivation for Building the Network 8.0 Competitive Advantages 9.0 Industry Challenges - Outlook 1

2 1.0 Introduction The purpose of this activity is to examine fiber optic networks, focusing on local access. By gathering individuals who have knowledge about broadband networks, we were able to discuss current technologies and postulate where fiber optic local networks are likely to be in the next decade. It is a result of that collaboration. This paper contains discussions on how fiber optics are used today and can be used in the future. It also touches on the technical and non-technical challenges that a Fiber to the Home (FTTH) or Fiber to the Building (FTTB) network may face. There are other viable broadband solutions, such as wireless and Hybrid Fiber Coax (HFC), but those are discussed by other task groups. 2.0 Services The major advantage of optical fiber is the extensive bandwidth that it can provide. Digital signals can be transmitted over a single wavelength of fiber at 40 Gbps. Introducing Dense Wave Division Multiplexing (DWDM) has provided the ability to send many wavelengths of light over one fiber. With DWDM, transmission speeds can be measured in terabits per second and are approaching peta-bits per second in backbone trunks. These advancements in optical technologies are being driven in backbones mostly by the increase in data traffic since the birth of the Internet. However, to assume we will need this bandwidth running into our backyards is another issue. The demand for bandwidth is generated by the services and applications that can be provided by service providers. The more applications that are created, the more bandwidth will be necessary to carry those applications. 2.1 Existing Services The application that is forcing service providers to upgrade their existing networks is data. The Internet is a driving force that is shaping a new way of life. Schools are being interconnected with public buildings and colleges to leverage information and experience. Interactive distance-learning is an attractive application for those that don t want to (or can t) quit their job and move away. Many businesses are also utilizing the Internet for E-Commerce and a new global storefront that can attract many new customers or clients. In addition to the growing need for high speed data to the home, there are existing service providers supplying dial tone and video services. Many are providing upgrades to their network, to handle multiple services. By creating the infrastructure that can handle all of these services the supplier also provides a mechanism for "owning" the subscriber. Many reports already show a favorable customer response to bundled services. There is something to be said for having only one bill and one number to call if there is a problem. A fiber optic network would provide such services and more. 2

3 2.2 Future Services Other types of advanced services include: Interactive Video Video On Demand (VOD) Ultra High Speed Data (10+ Mbps) High Definition / Digital TV Full Multimedia Digital Games Tele-medicine Tele-commuting (Tele-presence) Video Conferencing Targeted Advertising Home Automation Utility Monitoring Home Networking Many of the services in this list are offered today. In the near future we can expect to see interactive video (video on demand), games, and high definition / digital TV. Fiber to the Desk (FTTD) (in businesses) already accounts for 4% of today s desktop networks, providing 10 to 100 Mbps of data. This will help drive bandwidth demand to the home. Targeted video and advertising are very interesting services. You request a show or movie and you start watching it. Your profile, which is stored by the service provider, is updated with the types of programming you watch. The provider could also track the type of online shopping you do. The more specific the profile, the more likely the service provider can target advertisements that would actually appeal to you. This would make commercials more useful for the consumer and advertiser. On the other hand, a number of questions arise. Some people don t want to have a profile in the hands of a third party. There are privacy issues that are similar to the use of cookies on the Internet that arise. And if a subscriber is given control of the on/off button for the advertising service, how will the revenue stream from this service be realized? These issues suggest that no one service is likely to drive the network, several will be required. But with enough bandwidth to run multiple services, the likelihood of success is enhanced. At this point, very few networks of any kind can handle the bandwidth necessary to perform all of these services, due to the limitations of the metallic media and the expense of the electronics to provide the services over fiber, as well as other reasons that will be discussed below. With a full service access network in place, there would be a paradigm shift in how services are created. It could be like the old adage, if you build it, they will come. Instead of waiting for applications to demand a better network, we would have a network that is begging for better applications. 3.0 Current Role of Fiber Optics Though an all-fiber network provides large bandwidth capacity, there are current networks that exist with established service providers. Like anyone who has sunk a lot of time and money into something, it makes sense to try to preserve it as long as possible. There are also competing technologies such as wireless solutions, which can be the better solution where traditional cables are hard to install. 3

4 3.1 Cable TV Cable TV in the U.S., for the most part, uses HFC for its network architecture. Tree and branch coaxial networks were put in place to provide analog TV service. Fiber was used in these architectures in three main areas. The first use of fiber was (in super trunks) to bring clean satellite and microwave signals back to the Head End to be sent over the coax networks. The reliability and capacity of the fiber allowed a rapid increase in deployment of such networks. The signal could travel long distances ( km) without amplification, while in coaxial systems amplifiers that were expensive and needed frequent adjusting had to be located every 2000 feet. Using fiber to bypass coaxial amplifiers was then applied to the distribution trunk portion of the network. By replacing trunk lines with fiber, the signals could be carried cleanly to other Head Ends. As a result, fewer Head Ends required expensive modulation, encoding, decoding, and satellite equipment. Connecting the Head Ends with fiber also allowed for the provisioning of a ring backbone. This improved both reliability and lowered maintenance costs. Again, the concept of bypassing coaxial amplifiers was used in the distribution plant. A fiber node was created in the network so that the overall cascade of amplifiers from the Head End to a single subscriber was significantly reduced, raising the quality of the TV signal and preparing the network for two-way communications. The network was gradually transformed from a tree and branch (bus) architecture into a ring and star architecture. 3.2 Incumbent Local Exchange Carrier (ILEC) The telephone companies have also used fiber extensively in their networks. The majority of the fiber is deployed in the ILEC trunk networks, to interconnect their Central Offices in the same fashion as the cable TV companies connect their Head Ends. The original phone network was built using twisted pair copper wire that was easy to work with and provided plenty of bandwidth for its intended use, voice telephone calls. Today, even with just voice circuits, the demand for optical technologies in the backbone is expanding. If a network is also to be used for broadband data transmission, efficient coding schemes (Digital Subscriber Loop (DSL)) is generally used. The twisted pair has a limited bandwidth of approximately 100 MHz, compared to 1 GHz for coax. To improve the network for both voice circuits and data transmission, fiber is used. For voice, part of the Central Office equipment, usually a DLC (digital loop carrier) box, will be put in the field. Emanating from the DLC location could be thousands of strands of copper for voice transmission, with a backhaul network of several fibers to aggregate the traffic. Data transmission would also require a similar upgrade with electronics in the 4

5 field, to decode the higher speed data signals, while allowing the phone conversation to occur simultaneously. Both such upgrades introduce electronics into the field. This can affect the network reliability and increase maintenance costs, but it also allows for more flexibility in the network. To examine the different access options, some ILECs formed a group called the Full Service Access Network (FSAN). This international group of phone companies has analyzed the question on the type of architecture that is likely to be useful for Fiber to the Curb (FTTC) and FTTH architectures. Bell South has a 400 home trial fiber deployment of the Asynchronous Transfer Mode Passive Optical Network (ATM PON) in the Atlanta area. The different types of FTTH architectures can be found in section Competitive Local Exchange Carrier (CLEC), Utility, and Municipality Many factors have allowed a third possibility for providing a broadband network. Regulators have given a significant amount of power to CLECs to compete with the incumbents for providing services. By law, the CLECs are allowed to co-locate their equipment in the CO of the ILEC, while getting low rates for renting access from the incumbent provider. All these advantages are meant to stimulate competition. Many CLECs will focus on high density business areas and use either fiber or wireless technologies to provide point-to-point bandwidth to companies. Others, such as RCN and ClearWorks are focusing on residential users, with the attitude that if they are the first ones with fiber to the home, then the business case of another provider can not support a second fiber there. At the very least, they could lease the fiber (or wavelengths on that fiber) to other service providers. Power utilities are also building fiber networks. All-fiber networks are being built in places like: East Wenatchee, Washington Rye, Colorado Tacoma, Washington Palo Alto, California Glasgow, KY Often by municipally owned firms The business cases for the utilities and municipalities are quite different. Due to the de-regulation of power, many utilities are looking to broaden their business plan. Municipalities are often concerned with retaining residents and businesses as part of the community. Bandwidth to businesses, schools, and homes is having a greater impact on those issues today and will continue to do so in the future. Though these companies often lack the knowledge to be a full service provider and a network owner, they have advantages that they can exploit. For instance, they have existing relationships with almost every member of the community. Their main objective generally is not profit seeking and often has longer payback periods than other providers. They often use the network to lower the cost of utilities or to raise the value of real estate. They have the staff to engineer networks and install cable; they own a part of the right of way on the poles and in the ground; and they 5

6 also may have already installed their own fiber infrastructure. Some feel, through partnering and hiring, they can attain the knowledge necessary to become full service providers. If they decide to build a network, it will likely be rich in fiber. 4.0 Feasibility of Fiber to the Home/Building (FTTH/B) When realistically looking at the solutions to raise bandwidth to the home, there is no one right answer. What works in an extremely hot area of the country may not work in the coldest parts. The network that is optimized for high density areas may not be cost effective in rural areas. Much like the past, the future holds many different types of networks. The logical view in evaluating the chances for FTTH/B to be mass deployed within the next decade is to evaluate the upgrade potential of the current networks. These providers could develop two strategies --- an upgrade strategy that applies to their existing network, and a strategy for new builds. If these are significantly different, then the support issues of operating the same services over different architectures will need to be addressed. 4.1 Cable TV The possibility for existing neighborhoods that are serviced with an HFC architecture to move directly toward FTTH/B is very slim. It is likely that within the next few years, the architecture will evolve into a "passive" HFC architecture. Such a passive architecture would use coax for the drop lines, but have fiber-fed fiber-nodes that service homes, eliminating the use of coax amplifiers. AT&T has announced their intention to upgrade their cable systems to such an architecture. With fiber deep in their networks, MSOs will have experience in repairs and installation that make it feasible to move towards a FTTH/B solution for new builds. This may be farther in the future, but will likely not be due to the bandwidth demand from single occupant residencies. Short lengths of high quality coax have large bandwidth capacities that could carry all of the current and many likely advanced services. On the other hand, multiple dwelling units (MDU) could require enough bandwidth for two-way services to require fiber to the building. Either way, lower operational costs, higher reliability, or new optical technologies are likely to be the issues that drive FTTH/B in new builds. Some of these optical technologies could be DWDM in the distribution or the mass manufacture of optical interfaces for home equipment. There could be management of individual wavelengths that could go to each home. These technologies, in a usable form, are not available today. 4.2 ILEC The chances for FTTH/B being installed by an ILEC are much greater. The current strategy of providing data service using xdsl will help in the short term, but will not be enough bandwidth to let them offer all of the likely advanced services at an affordable 6

7 cost. The bandwidth limits of ADSL are 25 Mbps, but only a small portion of the network, close to a CO or fiber node, will get anywhere near this speed. It is likely that in mass deployment, ADSL-lite will only bring 1.5 Mbps at its peak. The bandwidth limitations of ADSL and ADSL-lite will have a difficult time competing with the bandwidth offered by the HFC architecture as it moves fiber closer to the homes. If the telephone company decides to compete for broadband access, there is a strong case for FTTH/B. However, there is some opposition to this strategy. Currently, if the ILEC upgraded the last mile with all fiber, the CLECs could utilize that fiber as an unbundled service. This is viewed in two ways. On one hand, the telephone company is less likely to upgrade with fiber, since it also gives the upgrade to its competitors. On the other side they are more likely to upgrade with fiber since, if the competition is going to utilize the network anyway, they might as well have enough bandwidth for everybody. Because of the complexity of the issue, ILECs are likely to delay upgrade decisions. Another factor that may be holding up implementation is the loss of focus on local networks. Lots of energy is being expended by ILECs to become a long distance provider. The footprint for long distance is much greater than the phone companies' local service area. These phone companies may also be focused on other activities, such as mergers and acquisitions. It s important at this time to be aware of how each company is positioning itself for the new broadband age. With all of the above considerations, we need to keep in mind that these are large companies that have historically been deliberate in their decision-making. Any change in business plan can affect a large number of people, and all levels in the corporation need to coordinate to make it happen. The larger the company, the harder this task becomes. 4.3 CLEC, Utility, and Municipality Of all providers, it is most likely that CLECS, utility companies, and municipalities will deploy an all fiber network. In fact, there are a few cases of their deploying FTTH/B now. With no legacy architecture, they need to have access to subscribers, but are not technologically limited by an existing base of cable or other equipment. This allows for the opportunity to offer a more fiber-rich solution. CLECs can take advantage of the regulation that allows them to co-locate with the incumbent and lease their lines at low rates. The utilities and municipalities have access to the valuable rights of way that can take them to every home, where they are a household name, and they have the experience necessary to install the network. With the deregulation of the power industry and the possible decentralization of power generation, they are interested in finding new revenue streams. One point to make here is that even though fiber deployments are likely, there are thousands of different utilities, municipalities, and CLECs. This is unlike the situation with Cable TV companies and ILECs where there are only a few large players. With so many different utilities and municipalities, there will need to be an easy way to share 7

8 information and expertise, so they aren t all trying to reinvent the wheel. The number of broadband consulting firms will likely rise sharply to help provide such expertise. Municipalities also may have a different business plan, which focuses less on the pure economics and more on the service to the community. They re putting in SONET rings that connect all of the local schools, universities, and government buildings. These rings are an amenity that can help the existing local businesses and residents, as well as attract new ones. 5.0 Likely All-Fiber Architectures This section addresses the different technologies that may be found in the local loop in the next decade. The exact architecture that is used will depend on the existing network, the geography, the regulations (local, state, and federal), the density of the area, the perceived competition, and the anticipated service take rate. There are some issues that are relevant to all architectures. Should the final architecture be a star or a ring? The ring provides redundancy and an opportunity to swap out signals in the signal stream, but the star allows a more direct path to each subscriber. It is likely that both will be employed in the network. The backbone could be a ring, while each house on the tip of a star. There is also a choice to be made about uni-directional vs. bi-directional systems. Ideally, the system should be bi-directional, but the choice will depend mostly on the extra cost of the electronics vs. the cost of adding more fiber to the existing cable. If the system does evolve into a bi-directional system, then will a symmetric solution be necessary? It is likely to be determined by the prevailing application and the equipment providers, but as more users of the Internet turn from being information consumers to being information producers, the upstream bandwidth will become more of a factor in network planning. 5.1 Passive Optical Networks (PON) In a greenfield situation, the PON is likely to be the architecture of choice. Fiber extends from the CO (or Head End) out to a point in the network where a passive optical splitter is used. The device is extremely reliable and doesn t have any adjustments or powering requirements. One feeder fiber can then effectively supply 32 homes. This makes the architecture flexible and the fiber management controllable. Though it is FTTH/B, the nature of the splitting causes an asymmetric transmission. The downstream channel is wrapped into the traffic flow, but the upstream is time division multiplexed. Even though it is asymmetric, the upstream channel could have extremely large bandwidth due to the large capacity of the fiber and the maximum of 32 subscribers per node. 8

9 As for the protocol that is to be used, there is some significant debate. More on this is included in section Actives With the dropping cost of Ethernet equipment, a viable network solution is to use this equipment as an extended LAN to the house. The concept is quite simple. Just build a corporate LAN outside. There are some advantages and disadvantages to this idea. One advantage is a flexible upgrade path. 10BaseFL/100BaseFX equipment can be installed so that software controlled upgrades can occur where needed. This architecture also allows for the use of multimode fiber to the home, resulting in lower cost light sources, connectors, and less precise alignment in splicing. However, with an active component in the network, the reliability goes down and the maintenance costs go up. The Ethernet or ATM switch would be placed in a pedestal that would require environmental controls, power, and backup power. Outdoor hardened equipment that requires no environmental controls would be preferable, but doesn t exist at this writing. But, the inexpensive, standardized equipment makes the option attractive. Also, security may be an issue depending on the design of the system. A switched Ethernet design would minimize security risk. 5.3 Dense Wave Division Multiplexing (DWDM) DWDM is being used in networks today. It is mostly used for point-to-point applications to help alleviate fiber exhaustion. In an all-fiber network, DWDM could be used in other ways as well. One option is to put different services on different wavelengths so that there need not be equipment that will multiplex the signals together. This way, the analog video could be separate from the digital video and data. When a new service comes along, a new wavelength could be activated without affecting any other services. In the future, there may be the ability to dynamically route wavelengths. That would create multiple virtual fibers to the home, creating an abundance of bandwidth. There are many other technologies that are being developed that may have a future role in an optical network. When a dominant technology comes to the forefront, the architecture decisions should reflect an upgrade path to that technology. In every instance, network designers will need to answer the following questions: How deep into the network will DWDM be deployed? Where will the multiplexing take place? How will DWDM affect the operating costs and ease of managing the network? 9

10 6.0 Technical Challenges As with any technology, there are challenges that need to be overcome. The following issues are being researched, and some are likely to have answers in the next decade that we haven t thought of yet. 6.1 Lifeline Power For the last 40 years, telephone subscribers have gotten used to having phone service when the electric power goes out. With a non-metallic medium, the powering will need to come from another source. The current method is to use a bank of rechargeable batteries. Battery technology has taken significant strides in the last few years with the introduction of light-lithium-ion batteries. The subscriber pays for a small amount of power to charge the batteries, and the batteries are monitored through the network to know when they are beginning to get weak. Other ideas include utilizing the existing network to continue to give phone service, or at least power, to a limited number of handsets. Also, with the deregulation of power, it is believed that fuel cells may become the distributed power sources that can be used for all of these services during an outage. 6.2 Which Signal Protocol? Each protocol used in a network structure has a purpose. IP (Internet Protocol) is used extensively in data transfer. The problem with using IP as the only protocol is that all the traffic, whether voice, video, or data, is carried with the same priority. As yet, there is no way to prioritize time dependent information (voice and video) over non-time dependent information (data). A user is willing to wait an extra second in receiving , but that second is extremely valuable in a voice conversation. There is also a question of latency. When an IP message is sent, the sender will wait a certain amount of time for the receiver to acknowledge the receipt of the entire message. If one packet of the message did not arrive, the entire message will not be acknowledged and therefore the entire message will be resent regardless of how many valid packets were received. There are several ways of preventing or overcoming these latency problems. One way is by planning more bandwidth into the network, so there could be plenty of bandwidth for these retransmissions. Another way is to repackage the packets in another protocol such as ATM or SONET. ATM breaks up the packets further into cells and assigns a value to each cell. This allows important voice and video cells to have precedence over data cells. This is configurable in the routers. ATM also checks for packet arrival on a cell by cell basis, so 10

11 that when a large message is divided into packets, then cells, if one cell did not arrive at the receiver, then only that cell would need retransmission and not the entire message. These features also come with a downside. The cost of the ATM equipment is around six times that of the alternatives, and reduces network bandwidth by 11% due to the overhead introduced by the cells. SONET can take IP packets and ATM cells and put them in a SONET envelope for guaranteed transmission across an optical link. There is also some cost and overhead introduced into the network due to these envelopes. Most networks are likely to have a combination of these protocols due to legacy equipment and their interoperability. It is not uncommon to see IP (Ethernet) packets packaged into ATM cells, carried over a SONET ring. The argument revolves around the need for all the protocols and to determine if a single protocol could satisfy network requirements to reduce cost, overhead, and complexity in the network. 6.3 Fit with Existing Architectures and Equipment Certain architectures may need to use other technologies. The streets may not be able to be dug up again, or the conduit space may be full. There could also be a problem with space in cabinets and buildings. With real estate being so precious, space management is a consideration when building a network, and it can govern which equipment goes where. In neighborhoods with existing networks, it helps to engineer the network, while in some way utilizing and justifying the existence of the imbedded base. It is unrealistic and unlikely to expect an overbuild of fiber over metallic media that has been installed in the last five years. Nonetheless, the new fiber network should provide, not just bandwidth, but flexibility, robustness, and manageability at a level topping that of the existing network. 6.4 Customer Premises Equipment (CPE) One large question is where does the customer's equipment stop and where does the network equipment begin (what's the demarcation point)? If the network provider were allowed to own the CPE (e.g., a set-top box), then the network providers could own the end-to-end network, allowing for complete responsibility for reliability and upgrades of the network (similar to CATV today). If regulations call for the network demarcation point to be on the side of the house and the customer is to own the equipment indoors, then the need to comply with standards and the overall loss of end-to-end reliability is likely slow penetration of these broadband networks. If the CPE is owned by the customer, there will need to be coordination between the service provider and the customer to ensure the technologies used in the network will work with the customer's equipment. This is a technology decision more than an economic decision, because the subscribers will be paying for the equipment. 11

12 The physical interface at the house is closely related to the interface electronic. A larger box co-located with the power line will need to go on the side of the house for fiber management. This is where the service provider can have access to the network during a "truck-roll." Assuming this is the demarcation point, from that point back will be the service provider s responsibility, while the in-house wiring and the CPE will be the customers' responsibility. This fiber interface exists and is being used in current deployments, but will need to be well engineered and mass produced. 7.0 Non-Technical Challenges In this section, we briefly touch on some of the non-technical issues facing FTTH/B. 7.1 Regulation As mentioned earlier, the decisions that are driving network development are partly based on shifting business plans due to regulation. The local phone companies are trying to compete in long distance. The upgrade of the network to fiber will likely need to be shared with their competition, making revenue justification difficult. Regulation has also spawned many new CLECs that have the ability to co-locate and attain rights of way. The current public policy treats different services differently, but in the future it is likely that all services will be run over a single infrastructure. These two points are at odds. Will there be a clear legislative answer within the next decade? Regulations originate from many sources. Telecommunications providers have had to represent themselves at local, state, and federal levels, all of which may have different rules. To add another level of complexity, each local community, county or state could (and often does) have different regulations. 7.2 Economics Initial cost is the largest single factor stopping mass deployment of fiber all the way to the home. The optical to electrical conversion is shared amongst all the users on a node. The smaller the number of homes a node serves, the higher the cost per user. The CPE is also quite expensive. With definitive studies on life cycle-cost savings of installing an all fiber network, we will be able to better assess when to move to FTTH/B. Driving these costs in the future will be the cost of the light source. A complex network using single-mode fiber and DWDM may require very expensive lasers in the home with a small spectral width and low jitter. Other solutions that include multimode fiber could take advantage of less expensive light sources such as LEDs and VICSELs. A key question: what services will drive what revenue streams? Targeted advertising can be a source of large potential revenue. Bundling might allow the less popular services to get a higher penetration rate. 12

13 7.3 Motivation for Building the Network FTTH/B is likely to be more successful when the decision comes down to more than just economics. For municipalities, there is a sense of future proofing the network for the good of the community --- putting in the best possible network because their community wants it and the services it can provide. Not to say that economics is not a factor, but it may be less of a factor when the town allows the utility or itself to amortize the equipment over 10 years and the fiber over 20 years. Playing with those numbers at $50/month can easily justify a FTTH/B network with room to spare. 8.0 Competitive Advantages The major advantage of the all-fiber architecture is bandwidth. With the largest capacity media in place, the network will drive the applications instead of the applications driving the network. It s analogous to the large increase in analog TV bandwidth. It created so many new slots for channels, that channels came out of the woodwork to fill them. Here are some of the other advantages of an all-fiber network: Extremely reliable, therefore less maintenance is required Lowest operations cost over the life of the network Upgrades can be done at both ends and should be software configurable Fiber can span longer distances with less distortion No Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) to deal with Most secure transmission media Simplified network support and design 9.0 Industry Challenges Outlook FTTH/B is not ten years away. There are deployments going on right now all over the world. Within the next few years, the economies of scale will allow for mass deployments of FTTH/B. The architectural designs and incorporated technologies that are specifically adapted to certain densities and geographic areas will be most successful in the beginning. To be a success, FTTH/B needs to be available to every service provider as a current upgrade path or an option for a new build. Cost reductions and standardization of the optical components and CPE need to occur to make deployment easier. Finally, legislators will need to allow for competition in building the network. With the government building all-optical networks and using them for their own purposes, they are bound to come up with realistic applications that would require a broadband network. When that happens (within the next five years), service providers will need to decide how to enable their networks for that killer app. 13

14 References Zdzislaw Papir and Andrew Simmonds, Competing for Throughput in the Local Loop, IEEE Communications Magazine, May 1999 Vol. 37 No. 5 Ray Hogg, Homes and Businesses Reap the Benefits of FTTH/B with ATM PON, Fiberoptic Product News, June 1999 Annie Lindstrom, Canarie Migration, America s Network, July 1, 1999 Roger Brown and David Iler, Lighting Up the Neighborhood, CED, September 1999 Thomas P. Southwick, Cable Television: The First 50 Years, Supplement to Cable World, Chapter 9, September 1998 Dan O. Harris, Ph.D., New Technology Optimum for 1550 Networks, CED, September 1996 Gordon McKenney, Fiber Gains Ground in Access Networks, Lightwave, September 1999 Bob Lund, PON Architecture Futureproofs FTTH, Lightwave, September 1999 David Kettler, Lighting Up the Last Mile, America s Network, July 1,

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