An Evolving Asset Class
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1 Capital Matters: Managing Labor s Capital Conference Global Infrastructure An Evolving Asset Class Ryan J. Orr, Ph.D Stanford University April 22, 2010
2 Is this to be the plight of the baby boom generation? 2
3 PART I - BASICS & BACKGROUND 3
4 The American economy over two centuries Definition of Infrastructure: Long-lived fixed physical assets that t provide essential services to industry & society Source: Authors own, timeline is illustrative
5 But wait not all infrastructure is investible! Investible features: Right of ownership / operation Long-life assets that t provide essential services Monopoly status natural, contractual, regulatory Predictable cash flows from mature assets Relatively low operating and business risks
6 Why is infrastructure a good fit with institutional investors? Asset/Liability duration match Current income Inflation protection Low volatility & correlation Efficient deployment of capital Local benefits
7 What is driving the supply of infrastructure opportunities? Government fiscal deficits Deferred maintenance Value for money arguments Globalization Economic stimulus Job creation
8 How does infrastructure improve portfolio efficiency? 11% Efficient Frontier 10% Return 9% 8% With Infrastructure Without Infrastructure 7% 6% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% Risk (standard deviation) Source: Meketa Investment Group, 2009
9 Risk vs. reward for various asset classes? R e w a r d Fixed Income Core Infrastructure Opportunistic Infrastructure Private equity Value Added Infrastructure 15-30% 6-12%, cash yield, at acquisition 10-20%, enhance yield & valuation: - give older assets a face-lift - expand business - increase traffic - bundle smaller assets - initiate rate-case review - improve tax structure - new developments - risky countries Risk
10 What are the risks of investing in infrastructure? Political / Regulatory Illiquidity Financial (interest rates) Business and Operational Liability and Litigation
11 How can investors access infrastructure? Listed companies Unlisted funds Fund of funds Direct investment Co-investments
12 Total size of the market, by world region US $(millions) Upper Bound Lower Bound 0.0 Total Global Demand = $1-2.1 trillion/year* * Upper and lower bound based on OECD & World Bank data.
13 Total size of the market, by sector Power Generation 7% Telecoms 3% 2% Roads 29% 10% Rails 2% Power Transmission & Distribution 17% Water & Sewage 30% Ports Airports Total Global Demand = $ trillion/year* * Upper and lower bound based on OECD & World Bank data.
14 PART II - MARKET EVOLUTION & STRATEGIES GOING FORWARD 14
15 Pension plans: separate allocation becoming more common Source: Prequin,
16 Fund managers: fees, terms & conditions are evolving Pervasive 2 & 20 is over Mgmt fees linked to mgmt effort Longer-term structures Fewer bank-sponsored funds No-fault divorce clause
17 Fund managers: labor policies are evolving Example of a progressive Labor-Committed hiring i and contracting ti policy: Standards Responsible Investment Policy ( RIP ) Typical Responsible Contractor Policy ( RCP )* Commitment to Commitment to use Union Contractors No hard commitment to contract solely Union Labor for all construction, repair and with Union Contractors maintenance needs of Fund controlled operating companies Officer Level Dedicated Chief Labor Officer (CLO) No dedicated officer-level executive to Coordination to implement Fund s RIP Policy coordinate policy Staff Responsibilities Collective Bargaining Agreements Enforcement Commitment to pro-actively ensure that the RIP Policy is implemented by operating companies Commitment to (a) assume all existing collective bargaining agreements or (b) where assumption is not possible, create a new collective bargaining agreement on substantially the same or better terms Requirement to permit new unionization amongst non-management employees Commitment and authority to remove non-complying operating companies No commitment to pro-actively implement RCP; limited to review of operating company compliance reports, post-hoc Commitment limited to observing legal requirements Supports a position of neutrality in the event of a legitimate attempt by a labor organization to organize workers No requirement to remove non- complying operating company managers * As per Responsible Contractor Policy (Infrastructure) Illinois State Board of Investment Source: Fund in Market, 2010
18 Strategies to access deal flow STRATEGY 1 STRATEGY 3 STRATEGY 2 Core embedded industrial assets and government privatizations in low growth OECD countries Listed infrastructure companies High growth countries with huge greenfield activity Club format with Canadians Direct into listed securities Fund format in India, Brazil, etc. 18
19 Strategy 1: Club format for large OECD brownfield deals Canadian, Australian, and European pensions have proved that going direct is a superior and more costefficient model for core infrastructure assets Dozens of public pension funds are fed-up with multi-layer fees and have desire to go direct, but generally lack internal resources to do so Structure of the Unlisted Infra Market Pension Funds Pension Consultants Placement Agents Infrastructure Funds & Fund of Funds Special Project Co. s Large institutions who have built up a direct capability are excited to have partners to coinvest and can teach the others Transaction Advisors State & Local Government Agencies 19
20 Strategy 2: Listed infrastructure companies Stand Alone Entity 3 Somewhat difficult 4 Easiest (e.g. taking private a public (e.g. buying a developeroperator with 10 assets management must be fired already under management) turnpike authority where all due to corruption) Corporate/ Public Spin Off Most difficult & time intensive (e.g. buying parking structure from City with backlog of Somewhat difficult (e.g. buying a chemical plant from DOW) df deferred dmaintenance/ no management) 1 2 No Management in Place Management in Place Source: Presentation by Robert Hellman, Stanford University, 2009
21 Strategy 2 (con t): Listed infrastructure companies 427,890 Bloomberg Security universe Bloom- 63,119 Actively traded primary security Berg* 4,493 Sub-industry classification 2,689 Current market cap (> 50M mkt cap) 527 Company desc. (9 infra keywords, i.e. infrastructure, concession, etc.) User Coded* d* 129 Pure play infrastructure t companies (careful reading of company desc.) Primary Research** 25 Acquisition Targets 1180 Infrastructure Assets (name, location, sector, % ownership, price points, maturity) *completed ** ongoing research effort
22 Strategy 3: Greenfield funds in high-growth countries x 1 Growth Index High Growth, Lower Risk Israel Malaysia South Africa Columbia Saudi Arabia Qatar Peru Kazakhstan Tunisia Ghana India Panama Egypt Indonesia Bangladesh Turkey Kenya High Growth, Higher Risk Dominican Pakistan Republic Australia Thailand Chile Spain Czech Republic Brazil Mexico U.S.A. Korea Canada United Kingdom France Low Growth thoecd Countries Japan Germany Risk Index 2 Market Size GDP (2008 US$): Indexing Methodology: >10T 1 z scores 100 B 500 B 500B T T 10T Growth Index = Equally weighted (Population Growth, Urban Population Growth, GDP per Capita Growth, GDP Growth). All data is , three year average. 2 Risk Index = Z score weighted as follows: (0.6 * Sovereign Bond Spread over U.S. 10 B -100 B Treasuries, Jan. 2009) + (0.4 * IFC Strength of Investor Protections Index, Q1 2010) 22 SOURCE : Stanford University, 2010
23 Challenges in the asset class (1) Highly abstract category Lack of long-run performance data Lack of appropriate risk framework Fundamental misalignment of IRR as a performance metric for infrastructure Long-term contracts renegotiation
24 Challenges in the asset class (2)
25 QUESTIONS? 25
26 Contact information Ryan J. Orr, Ph.D Tel Collaboratory for Research on Global Projects 473 Via Ortega, Suite #239 Yang and Yamazaki Energy & Environment (Y2E2) Building Stanford, CA, Confidential Property of Ryan J. Orr
27 A few references Orr, R.J. (2009) Infrastructure á la Carte: The Shape ofthings tocome, Infrastructure Investor Magazine, October Orr, R.J. (2009) Pensions & Infrastructure: The Path to Common Ground, CRGP Working Paper #0051, June. Chowdhury, Abu, R.J. Orr, and D. Settel. (2009) Multilaterals and Infrastructure Funds: A New Era, The Journal of Structured Finance, Winter. Settel, Daniel, Abu Chowdhury, and R.J. Orr. (2009) The Rise of Multilateral Development Finance Institution Investments in Private Equity Funds, The Journal of Private Equity, Spring. Orr, R.J. and Kennedy, J. (2008) Highlights of Recent Trends in Global Infrastructure: New Players and Revised Game Rules. Transnational Corporations, April Issue, Farrugia, C., Reynolds T., and Orr, R.J. (2008) Public-Private Partnership Agencies: A Global Perspective CRGP Working Paper #0039, August. Orr, R.J., Keever, G. and Garvin, M. (2008) Enabling User-Fee Backed Transportation Finance in California CRGP Working Paper #0041. Orr, R.J. and Keever, G. (2008) Expanding California s Options for Delivering Infrastructure CRGP Working Paper Series; Orr, R.J. (Editor) (2007) Infrastructure Investment Agreements: Legacy and Lessons of Distressed and Failed Projects in the 1990s. Special issue of Transnational Dispute Management. 18articles, 250 pages, released in April Stodder, S. and Orr, R.J. (2006) Understanding Renegotiation and Dispute Resolution Experience in Foreign Infrastructure t Investment. t Journal of World Investment t and Trade. 7(5). Orr, R.J. (2006) Living Agreements for a Risky World. Harvard Business Review., Mar/Apr issue.
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