FRASER VALLEY REGIONAL DISTRICT ELECTRIC VEHICLE BUSINESS CASE. October 2014 (modified November 2015)

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1 FRASER VALLEY REGIONAL DISTRICT ELECTRIC VEHICLE BUSINESS CASE October 2014 (modified November 2015)

2 Table of Contents Executive Summary Objectives Background Electric Vehicles History and Overview Types of Battery- Powered Vehicles Capabilities Safety Records Charging Number of Electric Vehicles in BC and in the FVRD Experience in Other Fleets Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Needs of FVRD Fleet Vehicle Users User Experience in Other Fleets Financial Analysis Methodology Vehicles Considered Annual Mileage Expected Service Life Energy Prices Fuel Efficiency Manufacturer s Suggested Retail Price Annual Maintenance Insurance Resale or Salvage Rebates or Incentives Carbon Offsets Results Discussion Alternatives Limitations and Uncertainties Conclusions i Page

3 List of Tables Table 1. Range of Commercially Available Electric Vehicles in Canada... 4 Table 2. FVRD Pooled Fleet Vehicle Trip Data Table 3. Manufacturer s Suggested Retail Price for Four Vehicles Compared Table 4. Annual Insurance Cost Estimates for Four Vehicles Compared Table 5. Scenario #1 Lifecycle Cost Comparison of Six Vehicles with a 7 Year Service Life, Driven 13,000 km/year Table 6. Lifecycle Cost Comparison of Six Vehicles across Four Scenarios Table 7. Scenario #5 - Lifecycle Cost Comparison of Six Vehicles, Including Projected Energy Price Increases and Inflation Table 8. Service Life Greenhouse Gas Emissions (as CO 2 - equivalent) and Offset Cost List of Figures Figure 1. Electric vehicle charging stations (Level 2 and 3) in Southwestern BC, from PlugShare... 6 Figure 2. FVRD Nitrogen Oxides Sources (2010)... 8 Figure 3. FVRD Greenhouse Gas Sources (2010)... 8 Acknowledgements Thank you to the Fraser Basin Council for providing numerous reference documents and background information, as well as to the City of Chilliwack, City of Surrey and City of Vancouver for providing data and information on their experiences with fleet electric vehicles. The original version of this business case was prepared by the Fraser Valley Regional District in 2014 for its fleet. This version is provided for other fleets to use as needed to pursue electric vehicles. Specific values, such as for manufacturer s suggested retail prices, will need to be verified in future use of this document, as values presented within are current at the original time of writing (October 2014). Acknowledgement or reference of the Fraser Valley Regional District is requested in use of this document. ii P age

4 Executive Summary The Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD) is exploring incorporation of one or more electric vehicles into its corporate fleet. This business case describes electric vehicle history and capability, air quality benefits, FVRD fleet user needs, electric vehicles in other fleets, and outlines a comprehensive financial analysis taking into account the service life of the vehicles. Pursuit of electric vehicles strategically aligns with a number of the FVRD s goals and plans. Electric vehicles produce zero direct air contaminant and greenhouse gas emissions because they run on electricity, not gasoline or diesel. Given that vehicles account for a substantial portion of air emissions in the region (45% of nitrogen oxides and 37% of greenhouse gases), electric vehicles offer substantial environmental benefits. Electric vehicles are consistent with the FVRD s aims to improve air quality in the region, as outlined in the 1998 Air Quality Management Plan. They also support the 2004 Regional Growth Strategy s first goal of increasing transportation choice and efficiency. Electric fleet vehicles coincide with the FVRD s 2009 Corporate Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Plan and show that the organization is leading by example. There are numerous models of electric vehicles currently commercially available in Canada, and many of those models have been in production for several years. Most electric vehicle batteries also come with an eight year warranty. Electric vehicles are capable of travelling over 100 km on a single charge, which FVRD fleet vehicle trip data demonstrates should meet the needs of 73% of trips. This business case presents a comprehensive financial analysis of incorporating electric vehicles into the FVRD fleet, comparing the lifecycle cost of two models of electric vehicles with four models of conventional gasoline vehicles. This business case takes into account purchase price, service life, annual mileage driven, fuel economy, gasoline and electricity prices, maintenance costs, insurance costs, and resale/salvage value. When looking at all of these variables through a vehicle s lifecycle, across five different usage scenarios, one of the most cost effective vehicles each time was an electric vehicle, which is projected to save more than $3000 compared with the current fleet mix. Savings are generated mainly from reduced fuel and maintenance costs. As such, electric vehicles that are driven more and/or that stay in service longer have even greater financial benefits. When considering the triple bottom line, electric vehicles are an economically, environmentally, and socially responsible choice for the FVRD fleet. It is concluded that the FVRD incorporate this electric vehicle business case as a reference document in the fleet management program, and consider electric vehicles or alternatives each time fleet vehicles need to be replaced. 1 P age

5 1 Objectives This business case is designed to determine how one or more electric vehicles might fit into the Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD) fleet. Specifically, this business case covers: The history and background on electric vehicles; How electric vehicles would impact the FVRD s corporate greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions; How electric vehicles would meet the needs of FVRD fleet vehicle users; The lifecycle financial costs of owning and operating an electric vehicle compared with a conventional gasoline vehicle; Discussion, including limitations and uncertainties; Conclusions. 2 Background The FVRD strives to fulfill its mandate of providing high quality services for its region whilst fostering current and future economic, environmental and social well- being in its community. One of the services the FVRD offers is air quality management as well as greenhouse gas emissions and climate change planning. The FVRD s policy direction on both fronts is to reduce emissions of pollutants and thereby work to continuously improve air quality and reduce the region s impact on global climate change. The FVRD strives to deliver its services in a cost- effective manner to its taxpayers. Considering these environmental and financial objectives, pursuit of electric vehicles for the FVRD s corporate fleet strategically aligns well on both fronts. 2.1 Electric Vehicles History and Overview Electric vehicles have existed for more than one hundred years, as some of the earliest cars developed ran from an electric motor. 1 There was a resurgence of electric vehicles in the United States in the 1990s from a major manufacturer 2 (General Motors), however all of those vehicles were leased, withdrawn at the end of their lease, and destroyed (except for a few museum exhibits). Later in the 1990s, Toyota developed the hybrid Prius 3 and in 2008, Tesla began selling the fully electric Roadster. Since 2008, a number of electric vehicle models from multiple manufacturers have become commercially available, with new models coming onboard all the time. The fully electric Nissan Leaf began sales in As of fall 2015, there are at least seven models of fully electric vehicles commercially available in Canada, 4,5 including: vehicles- available- in- canada/ 5 drive/culture/technology/plugged- in- electric- vehicles- coming- to- canada- in- 2015/article / 2 P age

6 Nissan Leaf Ford Focus EV Smart ForTwo ED Mitsubishi i- MiEV Kia Soul EV BMW i3 Tesla Model S More models are projected come available all the time. This list does not include plug- in hybrid vehicles or hybrid vehicles, as these are not fully electric vehicles Types of Battery- Powered Vehicles There are several types of battery- powered vehicles. 6 For the purposes of this business case, the term electric vehicle refers to battery electric vehicles. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have an electric motor and are powered exclusively by electricity. They plug in to charge and emit zero emissions. A Nissan Leaf is an example of a battery electric vehicle. Plug- in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have both an electric motor and internal combustion engine. The batteries charge by being plugged in and they also produce zero emissions when operating in electric mode (though they do produce emissions when using the internal combustion engine). A Chevrolet Volt is an example of a plug- in hybrid. Conventional hybrid vehicles have combined electric motors and internal combustion engines. The battery charges by capturing energy from braking. These vehicles do not plug in to charge. A Toyota Prius is an example of a conventional hybrid vehicle. Battery electric vehicles produce zero direct emissions at all times, because they are running on a battery exclusively. Plug- in hybrid electric vehicles produce zero emissions when driving in electric mode, but consume gasoline and emit air pollutants and greenhouse gases when running on their gasoline engine. Conventional hybrid vehicles produce emissions at all times, but they typically emit fewer pollutants than typical internal combustion engine vehicles (non- hybrids) due to improved efficiency from the electric motor Capabilities The commercially available electric vehicles described earlier are all capable of driving as a conventional vehicle is able (e.g. travelling at highway speeds, driving in the snow). The major limitation with electric vehicles is the range (distance) they can travel before requiring recharging (analogous to filling up a gas tank). Range is impacted by numerous factors, including ambient temperature, wind, rain, load (e.g. one versus five passengers) and use of heating or cooling systems. Plug- in hybrid vehicles typically have a shorter electric range than battery electric vehicles, however after their electric range is depleted, they 6 of- electric- vehicles/ 3 P age

7 are able to run on a gasoline engine. Table 1 below illustrates the upper level range the United States Department of Energy publishes for various electric vehicles. 7 Table 1. Range of Commercially Available Electric Vehicles in Canada Vehicle (2014 or 2015 models) Nissan Leaf Ford Focus EV Smart ForTwo ED Mitsubishi i- MiEV Kia Soul BMW i3 Tesla Model S Chevrolet Volt (electric motor only) 8 Toyota Prius Plug- In Hybrid (electric motor only) 8 Approximate Range (km) In short, electric vehicles can do most of what a conventional vehicle can do, with the addition of being quiet and very responsive and enjoyable to drive, due to high torque from the electric motor. For comparison purposes, a trip from Chilliwack to Abbotsford and back is approximately 75 km, while a trip from Chilliwack to Hope and back is approximately 100 km. A Nissan Leaf, Ford Focus EV or Kia Soul EV would be expected to make either round trip without requiring charging at the destination Safety Records Commercially available electric vehicles are required to pass safety tests, similar to any other vehicle on the road. In fact, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in the United States reports that the Ford Focus EV is even safer than the Ford Focus gasoline model; while both models received 5/5 stars overall, the Focus EV had higher scores than the Focus SE on frontal crash and rollover (the EV received 5/5 for both, the SE received 4/5). 9 The Nissan Leaf similarly has a high safety rating, with an overall 4/5 star score. A number of sources also project that electric vehicles may be even more safe than internal combustion engine vehicles, as they do not contain flammable liquids (gasoline). 10,11 While electric vehicle batteries offer high energy density, and there have been reports of battery fires, manufacturers take a number of precautions, such as fuses and circuit breakers that detect collisions. Overall, it is expected that electric vehicles will be at least as safe as conventional gasoline vehicles, if not even more safe plugin/features- benefits/performance 9 Star+Safety+Ratings/2011- Newer+Vehicles 10 electric- cars- could- be- safer- than- gasoline- powered- ones/ 11 electric- cars- safe- in- accidents.htm 4 P age

8 In terms of visibility and safety while driving, the five car models compared (Toyota Prius, Ford Focus SE, Toyota Corolla, Nissan Leaf, Ford Focus EV), are expected to have similar performance as they are all at a similar height Charging There are three generally recognized levels of electric vehicle charging. 12 Level 1 charging is conducted by plugging the vehicle into a standard wall outlet (110 or 120 V). From empty to a full charge, it typically takes hours to replenish the battery, depending on the vehicle. Level 2 charging is the type most commonly found at electric vehicle charging stations (for example, the FVRD s Chilliwack office charging station is a Level 2). These units use 220/240 V, and a vehicle typically takes 4-8 hours to charge. There are more than 500 Level 2 charging stations in BC currently, with more being added all the time. Level 3 or fast chargers typically use 480 V and can charge a vehicle from empty to about 80% capacity in minutes (charging beyond 80% on a Level 3 can damage the battery, instead most Level 3 stations will drop their voltage after 80% capacity is reached and charging is slower). There are currently seventeen Level 3 fast chargers in BC, and thirteen additional ones are under development. 13 Figure 1 shows a screenshot from the PlugShare 14 website, showing Level 2 and Level 3 electric vehicle charging stations in southwestern BC. The map shows that the FVRD municipalities of Abbotsford, Chilliwack, Harrison Hot Springs, and Hope have multiple charging stations. For the FVRD, most charging is expected to be completed at the FVRD office using the existing Level 2 charging station, which is currently in place and would entail no additional capital cost. There are two charging ports at the station BC Hydro Electric Transportation. October Personal Communication P age

9 Figure 1. Electric vehicle charging stations (Level 2 and 3) in Southwestern BC, from PlugShare Number of Electric Vehicles in BC and in the FVRD As of July 2015, there were approximately 2400 electric vehicles in BC. 15 The FVRD s January 2014 Trip Diary shows that the average trip length by vehicles in the FVRD is 12.2 km 16, which means that an electric vehicle that typically has a range of over 100 km on one charge should serve the needs of many trips. Given BC s clean source of electricity from hydro, and the Lower Fraser Valley s relatively mild climate, this part of the province and country is an ideal location for electric vehicles. Plug in BC Communications Strategy Plug in BC, administered by the Fraser Basin Council, has developed a Communications Strategy to raise awareness and promote uptake of electric vehicles in BC. The program has been branded Emotive: The Electric Vehicle Experience ( which includes shareable communication materials, such as digital content, as well as presence of electric vehicles at community events. 15 Insurance Corporation of British Columbia. May Personal Communication P age

10 2.1.6 Experience in Other Fleets Many other local government fleets across BC have electric vehicles. The Cities of Chilliwack, Surrey, and Vancouver are examples in the Lower Fraser Valley, but other parts of the province also have electric vehicles in their fleets, including the City of Prince George, City of Nanaimo and Town of Qualicum Beach. When preparing this business case, the Cities of Chilliwack, Surrey and Vancouver were contacted in fall 2014 to find out details of their electric vehicle fleets, such as the number and types of vehicles, how long they had been in service for, their experience in fleets, and their actual operating costs. While all three municipalities had conducted some analysis on how electric vehicles would perform in their fleets and what the cost was projected to be, none of the municipalities completed a detailed written business case compiled in one document. City of Chilliwack: one Ford Focus EV, in service since City of Surrey: five Nissan Leafs, one in service since 2011, the other four since City of Vancouver: twenty- eight Mitsubishi i- MiEVs, two Ford Focus EVs, one Nissan Leaf in service since 2013 (though the City had completed electric vehicle testing for several years prior). 19 This is the largest municipal electric fleet in Canada Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Maintaining and improving air quality is a priority in the FVRD, as noted in the FVRD s 1998 Air Quality Management Plan. 21 The use and promotion of electric vehicles offers significant air quality and greenhouse gas emission reduction benefits relative to conventional vehicles. The FVRD s 2004 Regional Growth Strategy s first goal is also to increase transportation choice and efficiency, 22 which electric vehicles help to address. There is opportunity for the FVRD to lead by example and set progressive corporate policy in its purchase of vehicles. The FVRD also has a 2009 Corporate Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Plan, 23 which strives to reduce emissions from its own operations. How do electric vehicles factor into air quality in the FVRD? Automobiles are a significant source of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in the FVRD. As indicated in the 2010 Lower Fraser Valley Emissions Inventory, 24 on- road vehicles accounted for 45% of all nitrogen oxides emissions in the FVRD, an ozone precursor, and 37% of greenhouse gas emissions, shown in Figures 2-3. Vehicle emissions also contribute significantly to particulate matter, volatile organic compounds, and carbon monoxide emissions. 17 City of Chilliwack Fleet Operations. August Personal Communication. 18 City of Surrey Engineering Operations. September Personal Communication. 19 City of Vancouver Equipment Management. October Personal Communication transportation/electric- vehicles.aspx The Sheltair Group. Fraser Valley Regional District Corporate Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Plan tandbackcast.pdf 7 P age

11 Electric vehicles have zero direct emissions as they run from an electric motor. Further, as most of the electricity generated in British Columbia is hydroelectric, there are also minimal upstream air emissions. Figure 2. FVRD Nitrogen Oxides Sources (2010) 9% 1% 6% 2% 37% 45% On- road Mobile Off- road Mobile Industrial Agricultural Natural Sources Heaqng Figure 3. FVRD Greenhouse Gas Sources (2010) 3% 23% 37% On- road Mobile Off- road Mobile Industrial Agricultural Heaqng 22% 3% 12% Landfills 8 P age

12 A 2013 Pembina Institute Report 25 analyzed the lifecycle impacts of an electric vehicle versus a conventional vehicle in BC, incorporating production, operation, and disposal considerations. The report used GHGenius software to demonstrate that through an electric vehicle s lifecycle, emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases were reduced markedly relative to a conventional vehicle: 82% reduction in greenhouse gases 36% reduction in particulate matter 45% reduction in sulphur oxides 81% reduction in nitrogen oxides 96% reduction in volatile organic compounds 99% reduction in carbon monoxide It is acknowledged that manufacturing of an electric vehicle versus a conventional vehicle has a greater environmental impact, in terms of air contaminant and greenhouse gas emissions. This is largely due to the electric vehicle s battery. For example, production of an electric vehicle compared with a conventional vehicle is estimated to emit: 74% more greenhouse gases 52% more particulate matter 90% more sulphur oxides 85% more nitrogen oxides 33% more volatile organic compounds 141% more carbon monoxide However, the operational life of an electric vehicle running off electricity generated by hydro in BC more than offsets production emissions. Another report estimated that lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions were reduced by 95% in an electric vehicle operating in BC, relative to a gasoline vehicle. 26 At the end of an electric vehicle s life, the battery is recyclable. 27 It is noteworthy that most of the emissions that are associated with electric vehicles occur during the production/manufacturing stage, which occurs in factories where emissions may be controlled more easily than from individual vehicles. While it is acknowledged that emissions from manufacturing impacts air quality in communities where the vehicles are produced, the reduction in emissions across communities where people live would be expected to improve air quality where most people are exposed to them (including in manufacturing communities, if electric vehicles are driven there). 2.3 Needs of FVRD Fleet Vehicle Users The scope of investigating where an electric vehicle would fit into the FVRD fleet was limited to the pooled portion of the fleet during this analysis. This is because the greatest use for passenger vehicles is 25 bailie.pdf 26 content/uploads/2014/02/plug- In- BC- EV- Suitability- Modelling- Project- White- Paper1.pdf P age

13 in the pooled fleet, and because many other segments of the overall fleet require specialized vehicles, such as 4x4 vehicles or trucks with storage capacity, which are needs that an electric vehicle cannot meet at this time. It is acknowledged that electric vehicles could be considered in other segments of the overall fleet in the future, particularly as electric vehicle capabilities and models are constantly expanding. Further, inclusion of an electric vehicle in the pooled fleet could act as a pilot, to determine how electric vehicles work in the FVRD fleet, and could better inform greater deployment across the overall fleet in the future. There are presently four vehicles in the FVRD s pooled fleet. Based on vehicle trip data collected each time a vehicle was signed out from October 2013 to August 2014, trip statistics were calculated to determine the viability of an electric vehicle with a range of approximately 100 km (advertised ranges are 134 km for the Nissan Leaf and 122 km for the Ford Focus EV; 100 km is selected as a conservative measure that may be experienced during inclement weather conditions. It is the same range the City of Surrey listed as worst case range for their Nissan Leafs). Table 2. FVRD Pooled Fleet Vehicle Trip Data Vehicle Year # trips* Median Trip Length (km) Average Trip Length (km) % trips <100km Toyota Prius Ford Escape Ford Escape Ford Escape All 4 pooled % *based on data collected from October 23, 2013 August 21, 2014 These trip results show that 73% of all pooled vehicle trips are less than 100 km (round trip) and would be suitable to be done in an electric vehicle. 50% of trips are less than 25 km. Most trips in a pooled fleet vehicle require a passenger car to attend meetings (this is based on purpose of the trip, collected at the same time as the trip data). Based on this trip data, an electric vehicle would suitably fit into the FVRD fleet as a pooled fleet vehicle. Corporate Electric Vehicle Trials In April 2014, the FVRD was fortunate to have a one week trial of a Mitsubishi i- MiEV electric vehicle for corporate use, which generated a great deal of excitement and discussion. Similarly, a Nissan Leaf electric vehicle trial was arranged from June 2-7, Verbal reports from staff who tried the cars indicated that they liked the quietness and handling of the vehicles. The Nissan Leaf was more popular than the Mitsubishi i- MiEV as users reported it felt sturdier and more secure, especially when travelling on the highway. The Nissan Leaf also has a greater range than the Mitsubishi i- MiEV (134 km versus 100 km) P age

14 2.3.1 User Experience in Other Fleets The City of Surrey recently completed an electric vehicle user feedback survey in summer 2014, to determine how their five electric vehicles were viewed by their staff. Fifty- six respondents completed the survey. Questions and responses follow How often do you use the general pool electric vehicles? a. Less than once a week: 69% b. More than once a week: 29% c. Every day: 2% 2. What is your opinion of the electric vehicle as a pool vehicle? a. Positive: 100% b. Negative: 0% 3. Do you feel safe while operating an electric vehicle? a. Yes: 100% b. No: 0% 4. Has low electric vehicle range ever impeded your ability to attend an off- site meeting? a. Yes: 14% b. No: 82% c. No answer/unsure: 4% 5. Do you find the requirement of having to unplug and plug- in the electric vehicle burdensome? a. Yes: 2% b. No: 98% 6. Are there any other aspects of operating an electric vehicle that you find overly complicated or burdensome? a. Yes: 16% b. No: 84% 7. If you had the opportunity to return all pool vehicles to gasoline powered, would you? a. Yes: 4% b. No: 96% The results of this survey show that City of Surrey staff generally find their fleet electric vehicles to be useful, not burdensome, rarely unable to meet their needs in terms of range, and most notably, 96% of respondents would not remove the electric vehicles from their fleet. 3 Financial Analysis 3.1 Methodology In order to determine if an electric vehicle is cost- effective in the FVRD fleet, the lifecycle costs of candidate electric vehicles were compared with conventional vehicles that are already part of the FVRD pooled fleet, as well as with two additional conventional vehicles. The assumptions made in the cost- benefit calculations are detailed below. 29 City of Surrey Engineering Operations. September Personal Communication. 11 P age

15 Five different scenarios were calculated, based on differing estimates in service life, annual mileage, and increasing energy prices over time, to determine how much electric vehicles would cost over their service life, compared with conventional vehicles. All estimates are exclusive of applicable taxes Vehicles Considered The two types of vehicles presently in the FVRD pooled fleet are Ford Escapes (three, of which only one is a hybrid) and a Toyota Prius (one, hybrid). Two additional types of conventional vehicles were compared as well, a Ford Focus SE 5- door (this is the model the Ford Focus EV is based on) and Toyota Corolla. While the latter two vehicles are not presently in the fleet, they were included to compare less expensive passenger vehicles, in terms of purchase price, over a lifecycle with existing fleet vehicles and with electric vehicles. The two types of electric vehicle candidates are the Nissan Leaf and Ford Focus EV. These two were selected as they are two of the seven battery electric vehicles (vehicles that are 100% electric) currently commercially available in Canada 30 which have a range greater than 100 km, handle well on the highway, have sufficient passenger capacity (can comfortably fit four adults) and are not prohibitively expensive. The other four battery electric vehicles currently available in Canada are the Mitsubishi i- MiEV, the smart ForTwo Electric, the Kia Soul EV, the BMW i3 and Tesla Model S. The first two are small cars, with limited passenger capacity, and the BMW i3 and Tesla Model S costs about $60, ,000 and are thus not currently practical for a public fleet vehicle. The Kia Soul EV was not available when this business case was originally prepared. To make the comparisons fair, the latest model year available for the four vehicles was used (2015 for all models except the Ford Focus SE 5- door and Ford Focus EV, which only have pricing information for the 2014 models) Annual Mileage 13,000 kilometres per year was assumed, based on the FVRD E3 fleet review conducted in 2008 by the Fraser Basin Council. 31 The City of Surrey s electric vehicle fleet (five vehicles) have similarly logged about 12,000 km/year, indicating that this is a reasonable assumption for an electric fleet vehicle. 32 Additional analyses were completed assuming vehicles travelled 20,000 kilometres per year, to demonstrate how additional vehicle usage would impact the cost comparisons Expected Service Life 30 vehicles/types- of- vehicles/electric- vehicle- availbility 31 Fraser Basin Council Fraser Valley Regional District Corporate Vehicle 2008 Fleet Review. 32 City of Surrey Engineering Operations. September Personal Communication. 12 P age

16 Based on discussions with the FVRD corporate fleet management team, a seven year service life was determined to be appropriate for FVRD vehicles. Additional analyses were completed assuming vehicles had a ten year service life, to demonstrate how additional time would impact the cost comparisons Energy Prices Gasoline Prices The price of gasoline was assumed to be $1.35/L, which is an intermediate price between what gasoline prices reached in Chilliwack in summer 2014 (~$1.43/L) and current prices (~$1.25/L). 33 As gasoline prices are forecast to increase over time, additional analysis was completed that takes into account the projected increase in gasoline costs over the seven year service life of a fleet vehicle. To predict the future prices, reviewing past gasoline prices shows gasoline costing on average about $1.05/L in 2007 in BC. 32 Thus, from 2007 to 2014, a change in price from $1.05/L to $1.35/L represents a 29% increase in cost. Assuming prices continue on this trajectory, prices could reach $1.74/L by Supposing that happens, and equally dividing the rate of increase over the seven years, additional analysis was completed. Electricity Prices The present electricity cost for the FVRD is $0.0748/kWh based on BC Hydro Large General Service Conservation Rate Part 1, 34 which is a combination of $ per kwh for the first 14,800 kwh consumed, and $ per kwh for additional electricity consumed. Based on the FVRD office s (45950 Cheam Ave, Chilliwack) historical BC Hydro bills, approximately 14,800 kwh are consumed at each rate each month (e.g. October 3, 2013 bill shows 14,800 kwh at the higher rate, and 14,634 kwh at the lower rate), indicating that an average of the two rates is an appropriate per kwh cost estimate. As with gasoline, electricity prices are projected to increase over time. Assuming that electricity rates increase at the same rate as gasoline (projected to be 29% over the next seven years, a reasonable assumption given that in 2013, a 28% increase over five years was indicated by the Provincial Government) 35, the electricity cost could reach $0.11/kWh by Assuming that happens, and equally dividing the rate of increase over the seven years, additional analysis was completed Fuel Efficiency Fuel efficiency for all vehicles, gasoline and electric, were based on US Department of Energy published values. 36 The values selected are for city- highway combined driving, the projected usage of the fleet vehicles. Values are provided in L/km for gasoline powered vehicles, and kwh/km for electric vehicles, so no conversion between the two types of energy units was completed billing/customer- service- business/business- rates- overview/business- rates- prices.html 35 columbia/bc- hydro- rates- to- increase- 28- per- cent- over- 5- years P age

17 The US Department of Energy s value for the Nissan Leaf was also validated. During the June 2014 one week trial the FVRD had with the Nissan Leaf, approximately 400 km were driven, and 70.5 kwh of electricity were consumed, based on the charging station data. This equates to kwh/km, which is actually slightly more efficient than the published value of kwh/km. For the purposes of this business case, it is assumed that fuel efficiency remains the same throughout the service life of the vehicle Manufacturer s Suggested Retail Price The manufacturer s suggested retail price for each of the four vehicles compared was based on the manufacturer s website for the respective vehicle, as of September 30, The newest vehicle year available for each model was selected, 2015 for all except the Ford Focus SE 5- door and Ford Focus EV, as only 2014 pricing was available on the date of price information retrieval. The base model for each vehicle type was selected. Table 3. Manufacturer s Suggested Retail Price for Four Vehicles Compared Vehicle Manufacturer s Suggested Retail Price Ford Escape S FWD (2015) $23, Toyota Prius (2015) $26, Ford Focus SE 5- door (2014) $19, Toyota Corolla (2015) $15, Nissan Leaf S (2015) $33, Ford Focus EV (2014) $36, Annual Maintenance Gasoline Vehicles (Ford Escape, Toyota Prius, Ford Focus, Toyota Corolla) As no compiled maintenance cost information for existing FVRD fleet vehicles could be acquired, annual maintenance costs or estimates for other fleets were reviewed, and the average maintenance cost used Ford- Escape?zipcode=V2P1N6#/Exterior/Config%5B%7CFord%7CEscape%7C2015%7C1%7C1.%7C100A.U0F FWD. RETAIL.S.%5D 38 price/prs#models- options price/cor#models- options Ford- Focus/?branding=1&lang=en#/Exterior/Config%5B%7CFord%7CFocus%7C2014%7C1%7C1.%7C.P3R...HAT.ELC.RET.44H.BEV.%5D 14 P age

18 The City of Vancouver standard conventional passenger automobile annual maintenance cost has been $813.95/vehicle/year. 43 This is based on ten years of actual maintenance costs. The City of Chilliwack estimated annual gasoline vehicle maintenance costs to be $550/vehicle/year in their 2012 electric vehicle cost comparison spreadsheet. 44 The Canadian Automobile Association estimates that vehicle maintenance costs $ per kilometer driven. 45 At 13,000 km/year, maintenance costs would be $690.73/year. The average of these three sources of information was used as the annual maintenance cost for a gasoline vehicle: $ Electric Vehicles (Nissan Leaf and Ford Focus EV) Similar to the annual maintenance cost estimates for gasoline vehicles, maintenance costs for electric vehicles were drawn from a number of sources and averaged. The City of Vancouver average annual maintenance cost for their thirty- one electric vehicles (twenty- eight Mitsubishi i- MiEVs, two Ford Focus EVs, and one Nissan Leaf) has been $105/vehicle/year. 46 The City of Chilliwack s projected annual maintenance cost for their one Ford Focus EV was $260/vehicle/year. 47 The City of Surrey s actual annual maintenance cost for one Nissan Leaf has been $500/year. However, the City of Surrey projected that with additional Nissan Leafs in the fleet, the average annual maintenance cost per vehicle is likely to reduce to $250/vehicle/year. 48 The average of these three sources of information was used as the annual maintenance cost for an electric vehicle: $ Electric vehicles are equipped with regenerative brakes, which leads to significantly longer brake pad life relative to conventional friction- based brakes. One article estimates that electric vehicle brakes will require servicing at one third the frequency of conventional brakes. 49 The most expensive component on an electric vehicle is its battery. Both Nissan and Ford offer eight year/160,000 km warranties on their electric vehicle batteries. 50,51 On a seven year service life in the FVRD fleet, battery problems would be covered under warranty. Further, Nissan USA has announced 43 City of Vancouver Equipment Management. October Personal Communication. 44 City of Chilliwack Fleet Operations. August Personal Communication content/uploads/2012/06/caa_driving_cost_english_2013_web.pdf 46 City of Vancouver Equipment Management. October Personal Communication. 47 City of Chilliwack Fleet Operations. August Personal Communication. 48 City of Surrey - Engineering Operations. September Personal Communication worry- electric- car- brakes- will- ruin- my- business P age

19 electric vehicle battery replacement pricing at $5499 USD. 52 This means that after the eight year warranty has ended, should the FVRD still possess the electric vehicle, it could replace the battery for a fraction of the cost of a new electric car should that need arise. The battery price is also projected to decrease over time, as electric vehicles become more common. It is acknowledged that electric vehicle batteries also degrade over time, similar to many other batteries, such as those in cell phones. Nissan has an additional 5- year/100,000 km warranty to protect against battery degradation (if the battery degrades more than 70% during that time, it will be replaced free of charge). Similar to a cell phone or other battery, degradation of an electric vehicle battery does not mean it cannot be used, it simply means the range will be slightly reduced over the long term. Additional analyses were done incorporating projected rises in fuel/electricity costs. For these calculations, an annual inflation rate of 2% 53 was applied to maintenance costs as well Insurance Insurance is based on the price of the vehicle and there is no insurance premium penalty or benefit for an electric vehicle in BC at this time. The British Columbia Automobile Association (BCAA) online calculator 54 was used to estimate insurance costs for the six vehicle models compared. Rates of coverage were based on existing FVRD fleet vehicles (2012 Ford Escape and 2007 Toyota Prius), which included third party liability of $5,000,000, a $500 collision deductible, and a $300 comprehensive deductible. The BCAA calculator was used to estimate insurance premiums for the two existing vehicles. As the calculator underestimated the actual cost quite significantly, a correction factor was developed, which was applied to the cost estimates generated for the six new vehicle models compared. Example: the BCAA calculator estimated annual premiums of $ for the 2012 Ford Escape and $ for the 2007 Toyota Prius, whereas the actual current cost is $1883 and $ for each vehicle, respectively. Thus, the difference between the estimate and actual cost is 93% for the Escape and 58% for the Toyota, an average of 76%. Therefore, a 76% markup was applied to the BCAA estimate to use as an insurance cost estimate. Since the fall 2014 business case, the FVRD acquired a Nissan Leaf fleet vehicle (in July 2015) and the actual annual insurance cost is $1715. Thus, the BCAA estimate method was approximately correct leaf- battery- cost for- replacement- with- heat- resistant- chemistry 53 functions/monetary- policy/inflation/ 54 quote 55 Based on Insurance Corporation of British Columbia insurance papers in the two vehicles. October P age

20 Table 4. Annual Insurance Cost Estimates for Four Vehicles Compared Vehicle BCAA Calculator Estimate Adjusted Estimate (76% increase) Ford Escape S FWD (2015) $ $ Toyota Prius (2015) $ $ Nissan Leaf S (2015) $ $ Ford Focus EV (2014) $ $ Ford Focus SE 5- door (2014) $ $ Toyota Corolla $ $ Additional analyses were done incorporating projected rises in fuel/electricity costs. For these calculations, an annual inflation rate of 2% 25 was applied to insurance costs as well Resale or Salvage The E3 fleet example completed for the FVRD in 2008 estimated that vehicle values depreciate at a rate of 30% in their first year, and 20% in each subsequent year. 56 Using those assumptions, vehicle resale or salvage values are then estimated at 18% of the purchase price after seven years and 9% after ten years. It was assumed that this value would apply to both conventional gasoline vehicles and to electric vehicles Rebates or Incentives At the time of the original business case preparation in fall 2014, there were no rebates or incentives for electric or fuel efficient vehicles available in British Columbia. There had previously been a $5000 incentive available under the Clean Energy Vehicle program, but funds were depleted in that program as of February 14, At the time, additional funding for incentive programs was not foreseen, though a renewed Clean Energy Vehicle program with $5000 incentives for fully electric vehicles was reintroduced in April An additional incentive from Scrap- It for up to $3250 off an electric vehicle was also introduced in spring As there is a limited amount of funding for both incentives, they have been excluded from this business case so that the financial analysis is conservative. If the incentives are still available when a fleet is considering an electric vehicle, they will further reduce the cost of the vehicle Carbon Offsets While the FVRD does not currently purchase carbon offsets, there is the possibility that the organization may choose or be required to do so in the future. Additional analysis, not included in the lifecycle cost analysis, was completed to determine the cost of purchasing carbon offsets for greenhouse gas emissions from the gasoline vehicles versus the electric vehicles. 56 Fraser Basin Council Fraser Valley Regional District Corporate Vehicle 2008 Fleet Review P age

21 The current BC Carbon Tax rate is $30/tonne 58, and was used as the cost of offsetting greenhouse gas emissions. As per Natural Resources Canada s calculations, 2.4 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent 59 was assumed to be emitted per litre of gasoline consumed. No carbon dioxide is emitted from electric vehicles. While there may be some carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation upstream in British Columbia (while over 90% of electricity generation is renewable and emits little or no carbon dioxide emissions, it is not 100% greenhouse gas emission free 60 ), there are also emissions associated with extracting and refining oil to make gasoline. The offsets are only based on the energy consumed by the prospective FVRD vehicle, not the total emissions of producing that type of energy. 3.2 Results The lifecycle costs of the four vehicles were compared under five different scenarios. Table 5 below shows the results of scenario #1, the most likely scenario based on current driving patterns of FVRD vehicles travelling 13,000 km/year and fleet management practices of disposing of vehicles after seven years. The table below shows that over a service lifetime, an all- electric Nissan Leaf is less expensive than existing fleet vehicles, the Ford Escape and Toyota Prius, by about $3000. The Ford Focus EV is approximately the same cost as the Ford Escape and Toyota Prius. The Ford Focus SE and Toyota Corolla are the least expensive options. None of the results incorporate incentives, as they were not available during the drafting of the business case in the fall of If they are in effect at the time this business case is used again, they should be subtracted from the purchase price of the vehicle guide/2007/calculating- co2.cfm?attr= P age

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