TOWARDS MODELING LONG-TERM DISASTER RECOVERY MANAGEMENT. Carlos A. Nieto Tibaquirá. A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of

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1 TOWARDS MODELING LONG-TERM DISASTER RECOVERY MANAGEMENT by Carlos A. Nieto Tibaquirá A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of The College of Engineering and Computer Science in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science Florida Atlantic University Boca Raton, Florida May 2012

2 TOWARDS MODELING LONG-TERM DISASTER RECOVERY MANAGEMENT by Carlos A. Nieto Tibaquira This thesis was prepared under the direction of the candidate's thesis advisor, Dr. Maria M. Larrondo Petrie, Department of Computer and Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, and has been approved by the members of his supervisory committee. It was submitted to the faculty of the College of Engineering and Computer Science and was accepted in partial fulfillment ofthe requirements for the degree ofmaster of Science. SUPERVISORY COI\1l\1ITTEE: Mihaela Cardei, Ph.D. ~~\~ Derrick Huang, Ph.D. lectrical Engineering and Computer Science Mohammad lie! ~, Interim Dea, ollege ofengineering and Computer Science a Barry T. sson, Ph.D. Dean, Or duate College 11

3 ABSTRACT Author: Carlos A. Nieto T. Title: Institution: Towards Modeling Long-Term Disaster Recovery Management Florida Atlantic University Thesis Advisor: Dr. Maria M. Larrondo Petrie Degree: Master of Science Year: 2012 Disasters are unavoidable. The United States separates the phases of addressing a disaster into Response and Recovery. There are systems in place for Response; but Recovery, a fundamental process for countries to rebound from disasters, is a topic that is left aside. Recently the U.S. released a framework regarding this topic and it is the intention of this work to further explore recovery by starting a modeling process for disaster management systems by developing a Disaster Recovery Roles Pattern based on the framework and creating flowcharts using the Business Process Modeling Notation for use in future development of systems for the recovery process. iii

4 TOWARDS MODELING LONG-TERM DISASTER RECOVERY MANAGEMENT LIST OF FIGURES... vi 1. INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND National Disaster Recovery Framework Overview Introduction to the National Disaster Recovery Framework National Disaster Recovery Framework Purpose Resources Applicability Recovery as a Continuum NDRF Core Principles Accomplishing Successful Disaster Recovery Success Factors Measuring Recovery Process Roles and Responsibilities in Recovery Individuals and Households Private Sector Nonprofit Sector Local Government State Government Tribal Government Federal Government Leadership Concepts in the NDRF Local Disaster Recovery Managers, State and Tribal DRC Federal Disaster Recovery Coordinator Disaster Recovery Coordination Recovery Support Functions (RSFs) Planning for Successful Disaster Recovery Pre-Disaster Recovery Planning Post-Disaster Recovery Planning Community Considerations METHODOLOGY Interview With Expert Conceptual Modeling of the National Disaster Recovery Framework iv

5 Business Process Modeling Notation UML and Patterns A PATTERN FOR LONG-TERM DISASTER RECOVERY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Pattern Name BPMN MODELS FOR LONG-TERM DISASTER MANAGEMENT Pre-Disaster Post-Disaster Assistance Delivery in a Federally Declared Disaster Assistance Delivery in Non-Declared Disasters CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK Contributions Future Work ABBREVIATIONS REFERENCES v

6 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Recovery Continuum [16] Figure 2 Community-Focused Recovery [16] Figure 3 Recovery Functions within the JFO Chain of Command [16] Figure 4 Flow Object Event [21] Figure 6 Object Gateway [21] Figure 7 Connecting Object Sequence Flow [21] Figure 8 Connecting Object Message Flow [21] Figure 9 Connecting Object Association [21] Figure 10 Swimlanes Pool [21] Figure 11 Swimlanes Lane [21] Figure 12 Artifacts Data Object [21] Figure 13 Artifacts Group [21] Figure 14 Artifacts Annotation [21] Figure 15 Disaster Management System Overview Figure 16 Disaster Management System RSFs Figure 17 Disaster Management System Coordination and Communication Figure 18 RSF s Agencies and Roles Figure 19 Pre-Disaster Stakeholders Individuals and Families [16] Figure 20 Mitigate Home Vulnerabilities [8] [14] Figure 21 Make a Preparedness Plan [14] Figure 22 Prepare Home for Earthquakes [9] [18] Figure 23 Prepare Home for Floods [11] [18] Figure 24 Prepare Home for Hurricanes [13] [18] Figure 25 Prepare Home for Fires [10] [18] vi

7 Figure 26 Develop Recovery Plan [14] Figure 27 Pre-Disaster Stakeholders Private Sector [16] Figure 28 Develop Business Continuity Plan [14] Figure 29 Pre-Disaster Stakeholders Nonprofit Sector [16] Figure 30 Pre-Disaster Stakeholders Local Government [16] Figure 31 Pre-Disaster Stakeholders State Government [16] Figure 32 Pre-Disaster Stakeholders Tribal Government [16] Figure 33 Develop Pre-Disaster Plan [14] Figure 34 Pre-Disaster Stakeholders Federal Government [16] Figure 35 Make Programs More Effective [16] Figure 36 Community Planning and Capacity Building RSF Pre-Disaster Activities [16] Figure 37 Infrastructure Systems RSF Pre-Disaster Activities [16] Figure 38 Health and Social Services RSF Pre-Disaster Activities [16] Figure 39 Economic RSF Pre-Disaster Activities [19] Figure 40 Natural and Cultural Resources RSF Pre-Disaster Activities [16] Figure 41 Housing RSF Pre-Disaster Activities [16] Figure 42 Post-Disaster Stakeholders Individuals and Families [16] Figure 43 Post-Disaster Stakeholders Private Sector [16] Figure 44 Post-Disaster Stakeholders Nonprofit Sector [16] Figure 45 Post-Disaster Stakeholders Local Government [16] Figure 46 Post-Disaster Stakeholders State Government [16] Figure 47 Post-Disaster Stakeholders Tribal Government [16] Figure 48 Post-Disaster Stakeholders Federal Government [16] Figure 49 Community Planning and Capacity Building RSF Post-Disaster Activities [16] Figure 50 Economic RSF Post-Disaster Activities [19] Figure 51 Health and Social Services RSF Post-Disaster Activities [16] Figure 52 Housing RSF Post-Disaster Activities [16] Figure 53 Infrastructure Systems RSF Post-Disaster Activities [16] vii

8 Figure 54 Natural and Cultural Resources RSF Post-Disaster Activities [16] Figure 55 Sequence of Delivery of Assistance in a Federally Declared Disaster [7] Figure 56 Sequence of Delivery of Assistance in a Federally Declared Disaster using BPMN [7] Figure 57 Sequence of Delivery of Assistance in a Federally Declared Disaster using BPMN [7] Figure 58 Review of Housing Assistance Program [7] Figure 59 Reviewing SBA Loan Program [7] Figure 60 Long-Term Recovery Assistance through Long-Term Recovery Groups [7] Figure 61 Long-Term Recovery Assistance through Long-Term Recovery Groups [7] Figure 62 Long-Term Recovery Assistance through Long-Term Recovery Groups in BPMN [7] Figure 63 Long-Term Recovery Assistance through Long-Term Recovery Groups in BPMN [7] Figure 64 Review Cases [7] Figure 65 Assess and Estimate [7] Figure 66 Coordinate Volunteers [7] Figure 67 Warehouse Management [7] Figure 68 Supervise Project [7] Figure 69 Sequence of Delivery of Assistance in Non-Declared Disaster [7] Figure 70 Sequence of Delivery of Assistance in Non-Declared Disaster using BPMN [7] viii

9 1. INTRODUCTION Disasters are inevitable and part of our lives; they can change the life of the communities affected by them in a negative or positive way depending on how the communities address the recovery challenges. A difference in the aftermath of a disaster is based on how a community is prepared to face a disaster and the long-term recovery plans implemented. Preparedness activities contribute to the community s capacity to adapt to disasters and are the first steps that should be taken in order to turn a tragedy into an opportunity. Some preparedness activities the communities should engage are [16] designing short, intermediate and long term recovery plans, designing and implementing disaster mitigation plans, identifying the capacity of the community to address a disaster and incorporating resilience building, conducting disaster preparedness exercises, fomenting the building of partnerships of the community with different stakeholders that can help during the recovery efforts, and articulating protocols in the disaster and recovery plans to incorporate services to meet the emotional and health care needs of the community s vulnerable members like children, elders, and persons with special needs [3]. When a disaster strikes there are phases intended to address the situation. These phases are Response, Stabilization, Short-Term Recovery, Intermediate Recovery, 1

10 and Long-Term Recovery [16]. The Response phase are those immediate actions intended to save lives, protect property and environment, and meet basic human needs [17] by executing previously design emergency plans. It also includes actions intended to support the beginning of the recovery phase. Response and Stabilization are the first steps taken after a disaster occurs and are guided by the National Response Framework (NRF). This Framework is a guide to how the Nation conducts all-hazards response based on scalable, flexible, and adaptable coordinating structures that align key roles and responsibilities across the Nation. Activities in the Response phase are depicted in the NRF and are enhanced by Stabilization activities [17] such as providing essential health and safety services, temporary sheltering solutions, basic human needs like food, water, and essential commodities to the impacted communities, providing assistance and support services to persons with disabilities and functional needs, developing an assessment on the impacts of the disaster over critical infrastructures, essential services and key resources, conducting an initial damage assessment and debris removal on the impacted community and primary transportation routes, restarting major transportation systems, restoring interrupted utilities, communication systems, and essential services, supporting family reunification, returning medical patients to suitable medical facilities, providing psychological support and counseling to affected members in the community, beginning case management assessments to individuals and families, providing security to the community by reestablishing law enforcement functions, and conducting assessments of natural and cultural resources. 2

11 The first phases, Response, Stabilization, and Preparedness, are addressed by various activities and frameworks and are topics that are usually studied and worked upon, as an example is the development of the National Response Framework and supporting tools for these phases. It is not the case for the Recovery phase, which lacks more studying and development of tools to help the communities for a faster and effective recovery effort. Recently, in September 2011, the National Disaster Recovery Framework (NDRF) was released by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) [16] in order to guide, as the NRF guides the Response phase, the Recovery phase after a disaster. In order to further study the topic of Recovery this work attempts to produce a collection of diagrams, using Business Process Modeling Notation (BPMN), of the Recovery phase, more precisely Long-Term Recovery phase, based on the National Disaster Recovery Framework. The work intends to translate activities and processes in terms of flowchart activities and Unified Modeling Language (UML) models that can be used in the creation of tools that can help enhance the recovery efforts after a disaster occurs that include all the essential aspects of the Framework. This work is divided as follows; Chapter 2 presents a summary of the NDRF to contextualize the reader, Chapter 3 presents the methodology used, Chapter 4 offers a 3

12 role-based access pattern based on the Recovery Support Functions, Chapter 5 presents the results of the analysis performed on the Framework, and finally Chapter 6 presents conclusions and possible future work. 4

13 2. BACKGROUND This section is intended to present a summary of the National Disaster Recovery Framework [3] to the reader in order to get the context of the work done and presents the motivation for this work National Disaster Recovery Framework Overview The National Disaster Recovery Framework outlines how the recovery process is supported on a national level. The Framework was design for impacted communities with special intention to large-scale or catastrophic incidents. By using a flexible structure, recovery managers work in a unified and collaborative way. The Framework defines: Core principles Roles and responsibilities Coordinating structures Planning for recovery Processes All this put together in action helps improve the recovery support for the impacted communities. The NDRF introduces five new concepts not present in the National Response 5

14 Framework that are [16]: Federal Disaster Recovery Coordinator (FDRC) State Disaster Recovery Coordinator (SDRC) Tribal Disaster Recovery Coordinator (TDRC) Local Disaster Recovery Managers (LDRM) Recovery Support Functions (RSFs) The first four add in recovery considerations for the decision-making process and monitor for any adjustments needed in assistance where necessary. The RSFs are six groupings of recovery capabilities that offer a structure intended for problem solving, access to resources, and coordinate State and Federal agencies, nongovernmental partners and all stakeholders involved in the recovery process. The National Response Framework and the National Disaster Recovery Framework align as the first addresses actions in the response phases and the second actions in the recovery phase. The NDRF aims to connect Federal resources intended for recovery and authorities, and incorporates all the capabilities available from all the actors involved in the recovery effort. To effectively implement this Framework, a strong coordination among all levels of government, NGOs, and the private sector is required. It also requires an efficient public information dissemination so all stakeholders involved have a clear understanding 6

15 of the scope and realities for recovery. The Framework also offers guidance to guarantee civil rights and liberties are respected and no discrimination on account of race, color, nationality, religion, sex, age or disability are present in the recovery process Introduction to the National Disaster Recovery Framework The National Disaster Recovery Framework is the result of a Long-Term Disaster Recovery Working Group, composed of more than 20 Federal departments, agencies, and offices that worked in the development of an operational guidance for recovery organizations using recommendations for improving the approach taken for disaster recovery [16]. This effort was charged to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) by the President of the United States, Barack Obama. Using outreached sessions sponsored by DHS and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) a wide array of stakeholders from different backgrounds came together to provide up-front comments to the Long-Term Disaster Recovery Working Group on ways the disaster recovery could be strengthen After gathering all the input from the different stakeholders through the different sources available, nine core principles were abstracted which are [16]: Individual and Family Empowerment 7

16 Leadership and Local Primacy Pre-Disaster Recovery Planning Partnerships and Inclusiveness Public Information Unity of Effort Timeliness and Flexibility Resilience and Sustainability Psychological and Emotional Recovery The Framework highlights the concepts needed for an effective recovery, which is structure, leadership, and planning. The Framework addresses these concepts by using the Recovery Support Functions as the structure component, State Disaster Recovery Coordinator, Tribal Disaster Recovery Coordinator, Local Disaster Recovery Managers, and Federal Disaster Recovery Coordinator, and community leaders for the leadership concept, and planning both pre and post disaster planning for the third concept National Disaster Recovery Framework Purpose The NDRF includes a description of how the Federal government will organize and operate to use all resources available for recovery to support States and Tribes affected by a disaster. 8

17 To speed up the recovery process, communities should be involved in predisaster preparedness activities, design and implement mitigation measures, and incorporate recovery capacity building. Planning and timely decisions in Response are fundamental to reduce recovery time and costs. Principles and steps are addressed if the NDRF for community recovery planning and implementation which focuses on the engagement and consideration of the needs of its members. The Framework includes in the recovery concept not only the restoration of physical structures to a pre-disaster state but also meeting the needs of those members of the community that have been affected financially, emotionally, and physically. It also includes sustainability to reduce vulnerabilities in the community in other possible disasters. Putting together this two concepts helps enhancing resiliency in the community Resources The NDRF seeks to leverage and concentrate the use of Federal resources, programs, projects, and activities through the Recovery Support Functions for the affected communities. 9

18 Applicability The NDRF is applicable to all major Presidentially-declared incidents, which is dictated by the magnitude of the incident. The concepts and principles contained in the Framework are also applicable to non-declared incidents that require a recovery process as well Recovery as a Continuum The Recovery process can be seen as interdependent and concurrent activities that advance towards a successful recovery conclusion. From Figure 1 it can be inferred that decisions made in the first stages of the recovery continuum can have an effect on the activities and speed of the overall Recovery process. Figure 1 Recovery Continuum [16] As presented earlier in this work, a list of some activities was mentioned for the preparedness phase. With the encouragement of continuing with the explanation some 10

19 activities will be explained to get a better understanding of what is done in each phase in the recovery continuum. Some Short-term recovery activities are [16] providing mass care and emergency services to affected persons, clearing debris from primary transportation routes, establishing temporary infrastructure to sustain business reopening by reestablishing cash flow, providing counseling, behavioral health services, and treatment to those that require it, enabling emergency and medical care services, and assessing risks and vulnerabilities the community may face. Intermediate recovery activities are [16] providing interim housing solutions to those that need it the most, planning infrastructure repair and restoration, reestablishing businesses and establishing business recovery one-stop centers, connect support networks for emotional and psychological care, and informing the community of ways and opportunities to build back safer. Finally, Long-term recovery activities are [16] developing permanent housing solutions, rebuilding infrastructure to address present and future community needs, implementing strategies for economic revitalization, transitioning health care services to the intended facilities, and implementing mitigation strategies. 11

20 2.4. NDRF Core Principles Expanding more into the Framework an explanation of the nine Principles presented before follow. If applied, these Principles can maximize the chances of achieving a successful recovery. Individual and Family Empowerment [16] reflects the need of all community members to have an equal opportunity to contribute in the community recovery efforts. Special attention is mandatory to avoid discrimination. Individuals and Families should be empowered with the necessary tools to access the care needed in order to rebound from losses and to be able to sustain their physical, emotional, social, and economic wellbeing. Leadership and Local Primacy [16] refers to the leadership needed in the recovery process by recognizing that the local, State, and Tribal governments are the primary responsible for the recovery of their communities. States should act as a support to the communities when local governments are overwhelmed and the Federal Government should be a partner and facilitator in recovery and increase its role when Federal areas are impacted by a disaster or it affects national security. Pre-Disaster Recovery Planning [16] refers to the importance of planning before a disaster occurs which helps speed up the recovery process. This planning should incorporate all stakeholders inputs, create relationships for collaboration and decision 12

21 making post-disaster, and incorporate actions for disaster-resilient building practices. Partnership and Inclusiveness [16] is very important for the recovery process to assure that all voices affected by a disaster and those that participate in the recovery process are heard. Public Information [16] must be clear, consistent, culturally appropriate, frequent, and inclusive to those persons with disabilities throughout the whole recovery process. Dissemination of recovery information serves to manage expectations of the process and supports the government communications plans to provide information of recovery assistance and resources to those affected. Unity of Effort [16] involves respecting the authority and expertise of participating organizations in the recovery process and at the same time coordinating support through an inclusive planning process with established metrics to measure progress. Timeliness and Flexibility [16] in a recovery process adds value to the coordination and conduction of recovery activities and delivering assistance by minimizing delays and loss of opportunities. Resilience and Sustainability [16] serves to reduce the risks to all hazards in 13

22 the community and strengthens its ability to withstand and recover from future disasters. Psychological and Emotional Recovery [16] is also part of the recovery process by providing support, counseling, screening, and treatment to community members in need Accomplishing Successful Disaster Recovery The circumstances, challenges, and priorities that surround a recovery process are influential in the desired outcome a community has for a successful recovery. Some conditions are common in all successful recoveries. They are [16]: The community prevails over the physical, emotional, and environmental impacts of a disaster. Reestablishing an economic and social base to produce confidence in the community of its viability. Rebuilding by combining the community needs and reducing the vulnerabilities to all hazards. Demonstrating preparedness, responsiveness, and resiliency in managing the consequences of a disaster. Recovery is not only reconstructing and returning the affected community to a pre-disaster state it is determining, in consensus with the community, if the circumstances 14

23 are sustainable, competitive or functional in post-disaster and that all decisions taken are well informed by evaluating the available alternatives to build a resilient community Success Factors Some success factors present in successful recoveries are [16]: Effective Decision-Making and Coordination Integration of Community Recovery Planning Processes Well-managed Recovery Proactive Community Engagement, Public Participation, and Public Awareness Well-administered Financial Acquisition Organizational Flexibility Resilient Building Measuring Recovery Process Measuring the recovery process and communicating these measurements to the public and stakeholders builds confidence in the process and it helps identifying ongoing recovery needs and promotes partnership engagement to provide assistance and problem resolution. The communities determine metrics used to measure the recovery progress. To determine this metrics, the NDRF contains some strategies that are presented next [16]: 15

24 Recognize that recovery progress has variables not attributable to any one program or government agency. It depends on the interaction of a wide range of public, nonprofit and private programs and initiatives, good planning, local capacity, leadership effective decision-making, and the building of public confidence. Establish systems that track pre-disaster baseline conditions, overall recovery of individuals as well as the reconstruction and redevelopment of infrastructure, economy, health, social and community services and government functions. Ensure disaster preparedness and recovery planning is integrated with community wide comprehensive and hazard mitigation planning. Select indicators that reflect the core principles of the Framework. Ensure full community participation in developing metrics in coordination with local, State, Tribal and Federal partners. Leverage technology and systems innovations to achieve goals that result in greater information sharing, accountability and transparency. Assure that recovery activities respect the civil rights and civil liberties of all populations and do not result in discrimination on account of race, color, national origin (including limited English proficiency), religion, sex, age or disability. Ensure continuous improvement by evaluating the effectiveness of recovery activities. Other stakeholders participating in the recovery process should also have their own 16

25 tracking mechanisms for the same reasons communities do. Additional to the strategies presented, three considerations are also applicable for developing metrics: Provide a baseline impact assessment that helps understand the community recovery issues to assess the extent of the recovery process and define realistic goals. The desired outcome and the overall results of the recovery process. Cross-sector assessment to track progress across all sectors including housing, employment, health and social services, and infrastructure among others Roles and Responsibilities in Recovery The foundation of the principle of Unity of Effort is the clear definition of roles and responsibilities of all disaster recovery stakeholders in order to identify opportunities, promote partnerships, and optimize resources in a coordinated way for a successful recovery. Figure 2 presents a community-focused recovery showing the different stakeholders. 17

26 FIGURE 2. COMMUNITY-FOCUSED RECOVERY. Figure 2 Community-Focused Recovery [16] Partnerships at every level are supported by State and Federal authorities and encouraged through A description of the roles and responsibilities two-way communication. is presented next. Various stakeholders are grouped together under local community but are explained separately Individuals and Households RECOVERY ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES Page%20 It is essential that individuals and families [16] plan and be prepared to sustain themselves after a disaster strikes. Preparation reduces the stress generated by an incident and increases the ability of the individual and family to assume their own recovery process to the extent possible and of the community too. The extent of the preparation reflects on the success of its recovery. Different resources to aid preparedness are available through organizations including all levels of government. Getting informed during the recovery process reduces confusion and uncertainty. 18

27 Private Sector The private sector [16] includes the business community and critical infrastructure owners and operators. Having an operational private sector after a disaster helps the community to recover more quickly by keeping and generating jobs and a stable tax base. For a more optimistic recovery post-disaster, local leaders and the business community should work together developing a recovery plan. Coordination in this matter highlights the resources and capabilities of the private sector, such as banks, utilities, and insurance companies that can encourage mitigation and resiliency in a community. The private sector is also very important, as they own the majority of the Nation s critical infrastructure such as electric power and telecommunications systems, which are critical in the recovery of a community or even a bigger region, as a major player in the recovery process, has the responsibility to increase disaster resilience by identifying and mitigating risks and increasing disaster preparedness Nonprofit Sector This sector, that is composed of voluntary, faith-based and community organizations, charities, foundations and philanthropic groups, professional associations, and academic institutions, plays an important role in the recovery process as the work done is oriented to community recovery planning, case management services, volunteer coordination, behavioral health and psychological and emotional support, technical and 19

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