Research Notes. Leichtman Research Group, Inc. The Skinny Bundle Dilemma

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1 Leichtman Research Group, Inc. Research Notes 3Q 2015 Actionable Research on the Broadband, Media & Entertainment Industries In this issue: The Skinny Bundle Dilemma T The Skinny Bundle Dilemma 83% of U.S. Households Subscribe to a Pay- TV Service Major Pay-TV Providers Lost About 470,000 Subscribers in 2Q 2015 About 360,000 Added Broadband in 2Q 2015 Industry by the Numbers he total number of pay-tv subscribers in the US is essentially the same today as it was five years ago. During this same period, the proportion of households getting Netflix or another Internet-delivered subscription video on-demand (SVOD) service increased from less than one-fifth of all households in 2010, to over half of all households today. Given the saturated pay-tv market, along with increased competition from lower-cost Internetdelivered options (as well as traditional over-the-air broadcast TV), growing attention is being paid to pay-tv providers offering skinny bundles. These are actually not true consumer bundles, but are smaller programming packages with fewer channels at potentially lower costs to consumers (and, less altruistically, also allow providers to save on the cost of programming). On the surface, skinny bundles appear to be a win-win for consumers and for providers. Skinny bundles can potentially save providers costs in programming fees, while also offering consumers lower priced packages. However, notwithstanding the impact on existing programming contracts, skinny bundles still may not necessarily be a panacea for providers or consumers. There is certainly consumer interest in lowering costs of pay-tv service. But, ultimately, consumers are looking for value from a pay-tv service, not just a lower price. The dilemma of the skinny bundle is that it might not actually provide the value that consumers are looking for from a pay- TV service. In addition, it could complicate the existing bundled-service offering (with Internet and/or phone service) that the vast majority of cable and Telco video subscribers receive. From a provider perspective, it s not as simple as lower cost creating more, and better, subscribers. Historically, lower priced pay-tv offerings have paradoxically tended to result in higher churn. The concept of the skinny bundle is fueled by the fact that consumers are getting (or perceive that they are paying for) far more channels than they are watching. LRG s recent Cable, DBS & Telcos: Competing for Customers 2015 study found that there is certainly a Page 1

2 disparity between the number of channels that people receive and the number that are watched in the household. The consumer-reported mean number of channels that pay-tv subscribers get as part of their service is 215 The mean number of channels reportedly watched in a household on a monthly basis is 26 These data could be used to show that there is excess in the traditional pay-tv model, but it should not be interpreted that consumers are demanding fewer channels. The study also found that while consumers are getting many more channels than they are typically watching, those who watch more channels tend to be more satisfied with their pay-tv provider. 46% of all pay-tv subscribers who watch <10 channels per month are very satisfied with their provider 57% who watch channels per month are very satisfied with their provider Historically, lower priced pay-tv offerings have paradoxically tended to result in higher churn. 66% who watch 20+ channels per month are very satisfied with their provider (This trend of satisfaction increasing with the number of channels watched is true across cable, DBS, and Telco video providers.) In addition, while there are clearly many channels that people are getting that they are not watching, the channels that are used vary across households (and even within households with more than one person). LRG s Competing for Customers 2015 study found that nearly 80% of pay-tv subscribers feel that there are specific channels or packages that are must haves as part of a TV service. Note that sports is the genre that is most often cited as a must have, and ESPN is a top must have network. Given the current industry environment, it becomes more important than ever to not just hook people into acquiring a service, but also to find ways to keep them. Price alone is not glue. While keeping a close eye on the bottom line, it is also important for providers to be conscious of how they are delivering consumers value that will ultimately help with longer-term customer retention. The pay-tv and related video industries have clearly changed over the past five years, and will continue to evolve going forward. Industry players need to look at how to adjust the existing models while maintaining profitability, and more importantly, value to customers. Page 2

3 83% of U.S. Households Subscribe to a Pay-TV Service L eichtman Research Group, Inc. found that 83% of all households nationwide subscribe to some form of pay-tv service. The percentage of households that subscribe to a pay-tv service is down from 87% in 2010, but up from 81% in While the total number of subscribers for the top pay-tv providers at the end of 2Q 2015 is similar to the total at the end of 2Q 2010, over the past five years, the US Census Bureau reports that occupied housing in the US increased by more than 4.5 million units (with all the growth coming in renter-occupied housing). As a result, penetration of pay- TV in residential households has decreased from five years ago. Among TV households that do not currently subscribe to a pay-tv service, 17% paid for a service in the past year, while 70% of non-subscribers last subscribed over three years ago, or never subscribed to a pay-tv service. Overall, about 2.5% of TV households paid to subscribe to a service in the past year, Did you know? Including pay-tv nonsubscribers, 18% of all TV sets in use do not get pay-tv programming. but currently do not compared to 1.5% in 2010, and 2.3% in These findings are based on a telephone survey of 1,222 households nationwide and are part of an LRG study, Cable, DBS & Telcos: Competing for Customers This is LRG s thirteenth annual study on this topic. Other related findings include: In households using a TV, 12% of home owners do not subscribe to a pay-tv service compared to 23% of renters (renters are more likely to be non-subscribers than in any year since 2006) 21% of those who moved in the past year do not currently subscribe to a pay-tv service compared to 12% in % using one TV set at home are non-subscribers compared to 10% using two or more TVs Mean reported monthly spending on pay-tv service is $99.10 an increase of 39% since % of non-subscribers get a subscription video on-demand (SVOD) service, and 62% have an over-the-air (OTA) TV antenna In total, 5% of all households are pay-tv non-subscribers with both an SVOD service and an OTA antenna while 4% of all households are pay-tv non-subscribers with SVOD but no OTA antenna. 10% of adults are very interested in HBO Now at $14.99 per month without having to subscribe to a pay-tv service Changes in the dynamics of the pay-tv industry are not driven just by those Page 3

4 exiting the category, but also those coming into the category. Historically, consumers have gone in and out of the pay-tv category, primarily for economic reasons. While the rate of those leaving is actually similar to a decade ago, those who are entering or reentering the market has decreased over time, and the industry is not keeping pace with rental housing growth. Changes in the dynamics of the pay-tv industry are not driven just by those exiting the category, but also those coming into the category. Major Pay-TV Providers Lost About 470,000 Subscribers in 2Q 2015 L eichtman Research Group, Inc. found that the seventeen largest cable and telephone providers in the US representing about 95% of the market lost about 470,000 net video subscribers in 2Q 2015, compared to a loss of about 305,000 video subscribers in 2Q The top pay-tv providers now account for 94.9 million subscribers with the top nine cable companies having nearly 49.0 million video subscribers, satellite TV companies having 34.2 million subscribers, and the top telephone companies having about 11.7 million subscribers. Other key findings for the quarter include: The top nine cable companies lost about 260,000 video subscribers in 2Q 2015 compared to a loss of about 510,000 subscribers in 2Q 2014 Losses for the top cable companies were the fewest in any second quarter since 2Q 2008 Satellite TV providers lost 214,000 subscribers in 2Q 2015 (including gains from DISH s Internetdelivered Sling TV) compared to a loss of 78,000 in 2Q 2014 DirecTV s 133,000 net losses in 2Q 2015 were more than in any previous quarter The top telephone providers added 4,000 video subscribers in 2Q 2015 compared to 284,000 net additions in 2Q 2014 Telco net adds in 2Q 2015 were the fewest in any quarter since the services started in 2006 Over the past year, the top pay-tv providers (including DISH s Sling TV) lost about 370,000 subscribers compared to a loss of about 5,000 subscribers over the prior year The top pay-tv providers lost about 470,000 subscribers in the traditionally weak second quarter, with net losses in Page 4

5 2Q 2015 exceeding the previous lowwater mark of about 360,000 losses in 2Q Cumulatively, Telcos and DBS providers both had their weakest quarter ever for net video additions, leaving the door open for cable providers to have their fewest cumulative losses in a second quarter in seven years. About 360,000 Added Broadband in 2Q 2015 L eichtman Research Group, Inc. found that the seventeen largest cable and telephone providers in the US representing about 94% of the market acquired about 360,000 net additional high-speed Internet subscribers in the second quarter of These top broadband providers now account for nearly 88.9 million subscribers with top cable companies having about 53.5 million broadband subscribers, and top telephone companies having 35.4 million subscribers. Did you know? Cable broadband penetration increased from 39.2% to 42.2% over the past two years. Other broadband findings for the quarter include: Overall, broadband additions in 2Q 2015 were 97% of those in 2Q 2014 The top cable companies added about 510,000 subscribers in 2Q % of the net additions for the top cable companies in 2Q 2014 The top telephone companies lost about 150,000 subscribers in 2Q 2015 subscriber losses were higher than in any previous quarter Telcos have had net broadband subscriber losses in four of the past six second quarters AT&T and Verizon added 313,000 subscribers via U-verse and FiOS in 2Q 2015, while having a net loss of 474,000 DSL subscribers. U-verse and FiOS broadband subscribers now account for 56% of Telco broadband subscribers compared to 42% two years ago While Telcos lost more broadband subscribers in 2Q 2015 than in any previous quarter, cable companies added over 500,000 subscribers for the fourth consecutive quarter. Over the past year, cable has accounted for 95% of the approximately 3,000,000 broadband additions. Page 5

6 Industry by the Numbers Top Pay-TV Providers in the U.S. Cable Companies Comcast Time Warner Charter Cablevision Suddenlink Mediacom Cable ONE Other major private companies* TOTAL TOP CABLE Satellite TV Companies (DBS) DirecTV DISH^ TOTAL TOP DBS Telephone Companies AT&T U-verse Verizon FiOS TOTAL TOP PHONE TOTAL TOP PAY-TV PROVIDERS Subscribers at End of 2Q ,306,000 10,982,000 4,258,000 2,637,000 1,102, , ,878 6,395,000 48,959,478 20,279,000 13,932,000 34,211,000 5,971,000 5,765,000 11,736,000 94,906,478 Net Adds in 2Q 2015 (69,000) (43,000) (30,000) (16,000) (29,400) (12,000) (21,455) (40,000) (260,855) (133,000) (81,000) (214,000) (22,000) 26,000 4,000 (470,855) Sources: The Companies and Leichtman Research Group, Inc. * Includes LRG estimates for Cox and Bright House Networks ^ DISH totals and net adds in 2Q 2015 include Sling TV Company subscriber counts may not solely represent residential households Top pay-tv providers represent approximately 95% of all subscribers Top cable companies do not include overbuilder WOW with 582,700 subscribers Note that LRG consumer research finds that about 1% of households subscribe to both cable and DBS Net additions reflect pro forma results from system sales, acquisitions and reporting adjustments, and may not be directly comparable to prior reports Page 6

7 Top Broadband Internet Providers in the U.S. Cable Companies Subscribers at End of 2Q 2015 Net Adds in 2Q 2015 Comcast 22,548, ,000 Time Warner 12,770, ,000 Charter 5,294,000 86,000 Cablevision 2,781,000 14,000 Suddenlink 1,180,800 (2,800) Mediacom 1,051,000 10,000 WOW (WideOpenWest) 713,100 (8,900) Cable ONE 497, Other Major Private Companies* 6,640,000 45,000 Total Top Cable 53,474, ,757 Telephone Companies AT&T 15,961,000 (136,000) Verizon 9,221,000 (25,000) CenturyLink 6,108,000 (9,000) Frontier^ 2,388,500 29,000 Windstream 1,120,800 (11,600) FairPoint 317,100 (1,278) Cincinnati Bell 275,100 2,400 Total Top Phone 35,391,500 (151,478) Total Top Broadband Providers 88,866, ,279 Sources: The Companies and Leichtman Research Group, Inc. * Includes LRG estimates for Cox and Bright House Networks ^ LRG estimate, does not include wireless subscribers Top cable and telephone companies represent approximately 94% of all subscribers Company subscriber counts may not represent solely residential households Net additions reflect pro forma results from system sales, acquisitions and reporting adjustments, and may not be directly comparable to prior reports Page 7

8 Leichtman Research Group, Inc. (603) Copyright 2015 Leichtman Research Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved Page 8

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