The Changing Face of Retail

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1 Accelerating success. Eastern Europe Q NOVEMBER 2014 The Changing Face of Retail DAMIAN HARRINGTON Regional Director of Research Eastern Europe KATY DEAN Senior Research Analyst Eastern Europe Foreword The retail industry is in the midst of a revolution. In this ever increasing digital world, the retail store as we know it is changing. Globalisation, evolving technology, big data, e-commerce and sustainability are just some of the forces driving the change. The bricks-and-mortar format has begun to look different from the store of five years ago and distribution channels are no longer singular or even multi they are fusing. Terms such as cross-channel and omni-channel are now synonymous with this change and integral to driving the retail landscape of the future. Across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the implications and opportunities for commercial real estate in this new environment are only just starting to be explored. Specifically, with the rise of mobile technology and e-commerce in general, subtle changes to retail store layouts are happening. A number of retailers have already adapted the physical footprint of their stores in order to capture and drive retail sales growth. In this short report we look at some examples of how retailers and/or shopping centre owners across the CEE region are adapting to, and preparing for, structural market changes and an increasingly competitive retail landscape. Contents 1 Foreword 2 Investing in Retail 3 Key Drivers of Retail Format Change 4 Operating Model 5 Technology 6 Marketing 7 Evolving Bricks-and-Mortar 9 Conclusion

2 Investing in Retail Generally speaking, when managed properly prime retail is considered a valuable, defensive asset capable of producing comparatively high total returns, even during times of uncertainty. Our recent investment report If I were a Rich Man, highlights that the best performing sector in the region from was retail, producing total returns of 10% compared with 8% for offices and around 7% for industrial. This makes retail highly attractive to investors seeking to strategise asset allocations in a portfolio, and also explains why retail opportunities can be hard to come by. Within the CEE region, prime high streets such as Stoleshnikov Lane in Moscow and Na Prikope in Prague are so tightly held that retailers will pay a premium to be in these locations. Equally, dominant shopping centres are rarely traded, with holding periods now stretching to beyond 7.5 years, gradually reducing the pool of retail assets to be traded on the investment market. While Amazon appears to be leading the charge within the core CEE markets, in the Czech Republic, Alza.cz is also gaining significant ground. They have already established a presence across a number of locations, but most recently secured another 12,500m² site in Prague. Other e-commerce retailers with a sizable foothold in the Czech Republic include Internet Mall (Mall.cz), Internet Shop (Parfum.cz) and Electro World. Further east, although mainly internalised, domestic e-commerce is one of the fastest growing sectors in Russia. As distribution channels and technology expand, shopping is becoming more complex. But what does this mean for bricksand-mortar retail in the CEE region. Are these forces driving change in traditional retail formats as we know them? Figure 2: CEE 5-year Return Profiles [ , %] But it doesn t stop there - the shifting dynamics of the retail environment is beginning to merge with other property sectors, notably logistics, in a digital world where e-commerce (otherwise known as omni-channel shopping) is growing rapidly. This is helping to create logistics assets which act as a derivative of retail demand. Since 2011, e-commerce occupier demand for logistics space in the CEE region has increased fourfold and there s evidence that this is just the start of a big structural trend. Last year, Amazon pre-committed to three new centres comprising more than 300,000m² in Poland. Recently, Amazon announced it has secured another site to develop a 95,000m² facility in Prague and is considering a third facility, upwards of 135,000m², nearby Capital Gains Income Returns Total Returns Office Industrial Retail Source: Colliers International Figure 1: Investment Volumes by Sector EE Region [ q3, %] 100 Office Retail Industrial Hotel Other Residential '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14q3 Source: Colliers International 2 The Changing Face of Retail November 2014 Colliers International

3 Key Drivers of Retail Format Change New technology is changing the way we shop and the format that we shop in. However, it s not just technology. Consumer s discretionary spending has declined since the global financial crisis of 2009 and, conversely, consumer expectations have been on the increase. Figure 3 shows that in 2009, household disposable income in the CEE region declined on average by 6%. Annual growth rates post-crisis have been 2% compared with more than 10% pre-crisis. Consumers are seeking greater value, greater access, greater transparency and greater convenience when they shop. While some of this is price-driven, the advancements in technology during the last five years have intensified the desire for a better service experience. As well as facing general business revenue and cost challenges, retailers need to expand their operating model to incorporate the multi-channel /omni-channel experience by investing in technology and infrastructure. In the Retail Growth Strategies Survey 2014 commissioned by the law firm TLT in the UK, 40.9% of retailers said they are planning to invest more this year than they did in Websites and mobile sites top the shopping list, with more than 90% of retailers identifying them as key areas for investment. Another developing driver is corporate social responsibility. More retailers are demonstrating concern for the wellbeing of their employees, communities and environmental performance. In context, this is about reputation and brand and many retailers are leading examples of incorporating sustainability into their business model. Figure 3: Average Annual Growth Rate of Household Disposable Income - CEE Region 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Source: Eurostat, Colliers International Figure 4: Retailer Investment Plans % Website & Mobile Sites 72.7% Opening New Stores For example, H&M chooses logistics transport with the least possible impact on the environment, avoiding air and road transport where possible. According to their 2013 Annual Report, around 90% of all freight transport is by sea or rail. This is a significant transformation from five years prior, when the share of rail freight for moving goods in Eastern Europe was 48% % Refurbishing Existing Stores 72.7% IT Systems 72.7% Marketing Customer Services In short, retailers are adapting to new market forces in an attempt to enhance shopper experiences and, of course, manage cost / reward payoffs. These forces are driving changes across four key areas: Operating Model Technology Marketing (Digital Engagement) The Physical Store % Marketing & Advertising Initiatives 50% Product Development 50% International Expansion 36.4% Logistics 31.8% Extending Stores 22.7% Staff Facilities Ranked Importance of Invesment in 2014 Source: TLT, Colliers International 3 The Changing Face of Retail November 2014 Colliers International

4 Figure 5: Key Drivers of Retail Format Change Discretionary Spending Business Revenues and Cost Challenges Investing in Technology and Infrastructure Corporate Social Responsibility Source: Colliers International Figure 6: E-commerce Share of Industrial Take-up: [ ] 2% 3% Operating Model With online retailing now considered to be a standard component of the retail environment, we have observed an increase in demand from the logistics side of the business. As retailers become more sophisticated in supply-chain and inventory management, smaller hub-and-spoke models are popping up to cater for this demand. In our report, Industrial & Logistics Demand - What s driving change?, we found that retail is now the top consuming sector of industrial and logistics space in the CEE region. 9% 2013 As mentioned earlier, demand by occupiers specialising in e-commerce has increased fourfold from 1.9% in 2011 to 9.1% in There is clearly a strategic shift to omni-channel retailing, which aims to fulfil customer needs faster and more efficiently, no matter what channel they are using to acquire their goods and services. 6% H Source: Colliers International Share of Total Transactions 4 The Changing Face of Retail November 2014 Colliers International

5 Technology In reviewing retailers across the region, we found that sophisticated technology is commonly being implemented to streamline customer service experiences. Generally, these are simple initiatives such as click-and-collect for an omni-channel shopping experience, radio frequency identification technology (RFID) to assist in supply-chain management and/or mobile marketing platforms such as free Wi-Fi in-store. Radio Frequency Identification Technology (RFID) Retail group, Inditex, responsible for eight brands including Zara, Pull & Bear, Massimo Dutti, Bershka, Stradivarius, Oysho, Zara Home and Uterque, has partially deployed RFID technology to its Eastern European located Zara stores. The technology initiative, announced in July 2014, is expected to be fully operational in all Zara stores and progressively deployed to their other brands by In this case, RFID is being used to code garments to improve the distribution platform workflow, track the location of garments in-store and provide an immediate alert if stock replenishment is required, thereby enhancing customer service. In May 2014, Decathlon reported that 90% of its stores in Europe use the RFID system and that system deployment will continue through to They have also introduced Mobistore, an omnichannel application, which allows employees in the warehouse, connecting via Wi-Fi, to have access to information on product stock availability and pricing. While this is initially being utilised in France, the group plans to gradually roll-out this application to other countries. In general, RFID has traditionally been used in the logistics sector to track warehouse inventory and improve supply-chain management and operational efficiency. For retailing, it taps into big data, by also measuring customer visits and shopper behaviour. It is one of the most common technological concepts being adopted by bricks-and-mortar retailers to assist in the transition to providing an omni-channel shopping experience. Augmented Reality (AR) The Augmented Reality (AR) concept is still in its infancy, but many retailers are implementing this into their physical stores. In relatively simple terms AR enables one s current perception or view of reality to be modified by a computer so artificial information or images can be overlaid onto this view. For instance Lacoste has implemented a 3D technology which combines product scanning and AR, allowing consumers to place their foot on an in-store floor graphic. The image created can be scanned to their smartphone, allowing customers to see how trainers look on their feet. They can then request more information, share the image on social media and/or buy them through the store s App. Ikea released a catalogue in Europe earlier this year which allowed you to preview selected furniture in 3D and for the first time, use your smartphone to see how the digital item would look in your home. Topshop tested a similar application in Moscow offering a virtual fitting room while a Ray Ban store in St Petersburg has a virtual mirror where you can try on sunglasses. Virtual fitting rooms where also trialled in CH Janki in Warsaw, Poland in March last year. These are just a few examples of what we are seeing day-to-day in the retail environment. 5 The Changing Face of Retail November 2014 Colliers International

6 Marketing (Digital Engagement) Mobile technology is certainly revolutionising the retail experience. Marketing efforts are closely related to technology, digital engagement and understanding how to collect and use big-data analytics. In Poland, Russia and the Czech Republic, many shopping centres now provide free Wi-Fi. Retailers are using this to gather big data and consumers with specific retailer applications are able to receive direct marketing messages while in-store or nearby. In 2013, Tesco introduced a mobile version of its e-store for smartphones and click-and-collect points. The mobile e-store enables customers to save shopping lists and use a barcode scanner. Mobile marketing platforms such as Motorola s Hybrid Bluetooth beacon and Wi-Fi solution (currently in pilot phase) enables retailers to identify where participating shoppers with smartphones are located, provide them with targeted promotional data and connect to store personnel. Apple already has a similar concept deployed in most of its stores, known as ibeacon, which provides targeted messaging and potential for data analytics. Social Media as a Developing Sales Channel Retailers are also placing greater emphasis on consumers awareness of social media as a developing sales channel. The number of sales channels available to the consumer means that marketing needs to be integrated to support the consistent delivery of services. In summary, engaging digital and big data is the foundation for successfully expanding and even crossing retail channels. Technologies such as RFID and Wi-Fi access are creating new ways to track consumer behaviour and strategically target marketing campaigns. From a technological perspective, this can be as simple as downloading the retailer s app and receiving targeted messaging and offers to your smartphone when in-store. This is likely to get increasingly sophisticated as more consumers use smartphones as goods scanners. Further down the line we are likely to see an increasing range of 3D/virtual technologies in-store and at home to help consumers try and modify, before they buy providing a much more integrated and individual shopping experience. The big question is, to what extent will these technological and operating model changes impact the physical layout of the store, long term? 6 The Changing Face of Retail November 2014 Colliers International

7 Evolving Bricks-and-Mortar Prior to looking at retail stores specifically, the first obvious change resulting from modifications to the retail operating model is the new range of store choices or e-fulfilment centres which are increasingly available to consumers in the CEE region. ALTERNATIVE RETAIL STORE OPTIONS Click-and-collect stations (and click-and-collect partnerships) have been evolving rapidly across Europe, with examples of similar operating models now apparent in the CEE region. For example, ebay has a partnership with UK store Argos, so that goods sold via ebay are able to be collected directly at an Argos store. Zoot online in the Czech and Slovak Republics has a similar service offering dispensary outlets across the capital city markets, including locations in some of the main metro stations in Prague and Bratislava. A similar concept is available with Polish based company InPost. InPost has already set up storage lockers in more than 20 countries including Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Estonia, Poland, Russia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. E-retailers can send parcels via InPost parcel lockers and customers can collect their e-shopping whenever they want (usually the parcel waits three days in the locker). In 2012, Czech e-tailer Alza.cz launched Alzadrive, a new take on click-and-collect, with customers able to collect goods directly from the e-fulfilment warehouse through a drive-through area. The company also has click-and-collect branch points across Prague, including in metro stations. Decathlon in France has a similar service, though they term it e-book, an online booking and points store, which allows customers to prepare a store purchase online and then collect at their nearest store or, if not immediately available, collect within 48 hours. EXISTING RETAIL STORE IMPACT While the most obvious change to formats resulting from e-commerce and new in-store technology would seem to be the creation of a smaller store footprint, our observations to date show no clear indications that the size of the retail store is shrinking generally in the CEE region - at least not across the fashion and grocery sub-sectors. The exception to this trend is brown or white goods, where some retailers are opting for a showroom style bricks-and-mortar store, typically on a smaller floor-plate, where consumers can browse inventory in-store and then order online. The trend, which has been noticeable in Poland and Russia in particular, is in essence omni-channel retailing. However, to remain competitive and to move into multi-channel and omni-channel shopping space, many retailers are making physical store changes, including implementing some of the following concepts: 7 The Changing Face of Retail November 2014 Colliers International

8 »» Technology kiosk integrating an additional service point in-store for customer use, typically self-service. For example, the kiosk may offer tablets (or touch screen computer) to check store inventory, mobile scanners or AR technology such as a virtual mirror.»» Entertainment the concept of adding/increasing the size and or location of entertainment and leisure services to draw the consumer in for a complete shopping experience is gaining ground, particularly in Poland and Russia. While it has been common to see a cinema or a gym incorporated into shopping centres for a couple of decades, today, it s not unusual to see a bowling alley or even a waterpark as part of a centre. Long term, we are likely to see a greater number of entertainment anchors, rather than just fashion and grocery retailers in the traditional store format. For example, in Poland there is an interactive wall in Sky Tower, Wroclaw, which is said to be the largest in Europe, covering 40m². The wall enables consumers to play games, see animations and take a tour around the shopping centre. Interactive playgrounds are also becoming popular.»» Pop-up retail this is a trend used across a range of markets for some time. The concept involves the short-term leasing of a space, often underutilised, in order to raise brand awareness and increase footfall in a given retail strip or shopping mall. This is an expansion on the entertainment concept, offering a visual presentation or interactive station to engage customers, often featuring a new product or special event. In Prague s high street Na Prikope there has been a range of retailers occupying pop-up space under this concept, including Nike s Air Max Studio concept, an Italian fashion retailer and recently Skoda. Picture 1: Mobile Scanner Picture 2: Pop-up Store Picture 3: Europe s Biggest Video Wall (Poland) Source: 8 The Changing Face of Retail November 2014 Colliers International

9 Conclusion There is clear evidence that the way consumers engage with retailers is evolving rapidly across CEE. Despite this change, retail store sizes or footprints have yet to significantly change across the board. Only in certain markets has there been evidence of brown or white-goods retailers opting for a showroom-style bricks-and-mortar store, typically on a smaller floor-plate. In future, however, store ranges should begin to transform as retailers decrease the size of their inventory on-site. By switching to showrooming style, retailers will hold a limited range of goods in store on a smaller floor-plate with the bulk of the inventory held off-site in warehousing. For this to work smoothly, retailers will need to be able to provide very quick delivery response times, placing a much greater reliance on technology and supplychain management to fulfill customer requirements. In the US, we have already seen the advent of next day delivery, as well as the emergence of nontraditional forms of goods delivery as technology and supply chain efficiencies have improved. Google and Amazon have plans to roll-out a drone service. Closer to home, DHL, a German logistics company, recently announced plans to use drone delivery for emergency goods via regular flights to the North Sea island Juist. As the CEE region continues to mature, both economically and in terms of the quality of supporting infrastructure, the next stages of the technologically-driven evolution of the retail sector will not be far away. Let s remember that e-tailing in the region is only around one quarter of the size of that in more mature UK and German markets. A number of shopping centres have already adapted their store layouts and retail/ entertainment mix in response to change. However many shopping centres are yet to adapt relatively simple technological upgrades, such as providing free Wi-Fi. There is probably no easier way to attract customers keen to reduce their mobile download costs - especially those constantly attached to their smartphone. Shopping centre owners can and should be using this to gather big data to monitor visitor or customer habits and consumer flows around a centre. Consumers can also be targeted with specific direct marketing messages while instore or nearby. Consumer behaviour is likely to become more discerning, and retail format offerings increasingly competitive and divergent. In time, this will include a greater role for high street retail, which to date remains largely under-developed across the CEE region. This will place continuing pressure on the need for innovative solutions and strong branding to maintain the competitiveness of both retailers and shopping centres. This places a greater emphasis on shopping centre managers to continually raise the awareness of unique selling points and appeal of shopping centres and locations to consumers. Although prime retail can be a defensive and attractive asset, ongoing active asset management to maintain the attractiveness and profitability of such assets will be paramount in such an increasingly dynamic arena. A failure to remain competitive could lead to a re-pricing of retail space in the longer-term. 9 The Changing Face of Retail November 2014 Colliers International

10 485 offices in 63 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 42 Latin America: 20 Asia Pacific: 195 EMEA: 85 $2.1 billion in annual revenue 1.46 billion square feet under management 15,800 professionals and staff Primary Authors: Katy Dean Senior Research Analyst EE Damian Harrington Regional Director Research EE Contributors: Sean Briggs Managing Director Eastern Europe Retail Agency Colliers International Prague Slovansky dum, Building B/C Na Prikope 859/ Prague Czech Republic TEL About Colliers International Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services, with over 15,800 professionals operating out of more than 485 offices in 62 countries. A subsidiary of FirstService Corporation, Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate users, owners and investors worldwide, including global corporate solutions, brokerage, property and asset management, hotel investment sales and consulting, valuation, consulting and appraisal services, mortgage banking and insightful research. The latest annual survey by the Lipsey Company ranked Colliers International as the second-most recognized commercial real estate firm in the world. colliers.com Copyright 2014 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

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