Country Operations Business Plan. Turkmenistan December 2014

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1 Country Operations Business Plan December 2014 Turkmenistan This document is being disclosed to the public in accordance with ADB s Public Communications Policy 2011.

2 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of 10 November 2014) Currency unit Turkmen manat (TMT) TMT1.00 = $ $1.00 = TMT2.85 ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank CAREC Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation COBP country operations business plan CPS country partnership strategy TA technical assistance NOTE In this report, $ refers to US dollars. Vice-President W. Zhang, Operations 1 Director General K. Gerhaeusser, Central and West Asia Department (CWRD) Team leader Team members P. Bozakov, Turkmenistan Resident Representative, CWRD S. Charyyev, Senior Country Coordination Officer, CWRD C. Espina, Senior Economics Officer, CWRD J. Hojanazarova, Senior Economics Officer, CWRD J. Liston, Principal Energy Specialist, CWRD D. S. Pyo, Lead Transport Specialist, CWRD In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

3 CONTENTS Page I. CONSISTENCY OF THE BUSINESS PLAN WITH THE COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY 1 II. INDICATIVE RESOURCE PARAMETERS 1 III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES TO LENDING AND NONLENDING PROGRAMS 1 APPENDIXES 1. Updated Interim Country Partnership Strategy Results Framework 3 2. Indicative Assistance Pipeline 4 3. Assistance Program for the Current Year 6

4

5 I. CONSISTENCY OF THE BUSINESS PLAN WITH THE COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY 1. There is no country partnership strategy (CPS) for Turkmenistan, and the first strategy, which will be presented as an interim CPS, has been in preparation in consultation with the government since The analytical work has been updated annually to keep the strategy current. This country operations business plan (COBP) for has been formulated in line with the draft interim CPS for Turkmenistan ( ). This strategy has identified energy and transport as priority areas for operations, with regional integration promulgated by the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC). The COBP (i) stays focused on the abovementioned sectors to ensure continuity and alignment with the draft interim CPS, (ii) provides support for reform efforts through policy and advisory interventions, and (iii) takes into account key change drivers and outcomes derived from the recent midterm review of Strategy 2020 of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). 2. The COBP has been prepared in consultation with the Government of Turkmenistan between April and September The consultations confirmed the overall validity of the indicative assistance pipeline presented in the COBP. However, due to the specificities in the government s planning and decision-making processes, both lending and nonlending programs cover only 2 years, and include mostly standby projects subjected to case-by-case approval by the government. 1 The limited nature of envisaged operations would enable ADB to effectively implement the programs without putting unnecessary strains on the national capacities. II. INDICATIVE RESOURCE PARAMETERS 3. Turkmenistan is only eligible for financing from ADB s ordinary capital resources (OCR). The indicative country allocation for amounts to $104 million. The COBP s lending program emphasizes developing power generation facilities and transport infrastructure to facilitate regional trade and cooperation. A total of $210 million in investment projects is tentatively envisaged in respective sectors. Cofinancing will be actively sought, in consultation with the government, to fill any financing gap. 4. The nonlending program of an estimated $1 million will support project preparation, capacity development, and policy and advisory services. The latter are intended to facilitate financial sector reforms aimed at making financial services accessible to private sector agents. 5. With both lending and nonlending programs planned on a standby basis, the entire financing envelope is contingent on government commitment to mobilize ADB financing for each project. III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES TO LENDING AND NONLENDING PROGRAMS 6. This COBP differs from the one for in particular in the nonlending pipeline. Specific changes to the pipeline are summarized in paragraphs 7 8 and prompted largely by uncertainty about the timing of lending interventions. 7. Nonlending program. Two technical assistance (TA) projects, the $0.225 million TA for Preparation of Country Strategy and the $0.5 million TA for Energy Efficiency/Renewable 1 Except for the policy and advisory technical assistance (PATA) on Financial Sector Reforms approved in November 2014 scheduled for implementation in 2014/2015, Table A3.1.

6 2 Energy, have been removed from the operational pipeline. The CAREC Maritime Transport Corridor Development Project, to be supported through a $0.5 million project preparation TA, has been renamed the CAREC Multimodal Transport Corridor Development Project and is now included in the nonlending program on a standby basis. 8. Lending program. The Afghanistan-Turkmenistan Regional Power Interconnection Project, set for 2014, has been moved to 2015 as a standby intervention. The change in the project s status is subject to the government s approval, as discussed above.

7 Appendix 1 3 Country Development Goals UPDATED INTERIM COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY RESULTS FRAMEWORK 1. Sustainable socioeconomic development with real growth targeted at the double-digit level. 2. Diversified economic structure and export base. 3. Strengthened regional cooperation and integration through hard and soft infrastructure. Sectors Selected by ADB Changes from CPS or Last COBP None Government Sector Objectives Sector Outcomes that ADB Contributes to and Indicators ADB Areas of Intervention ADB Indicative Resource Allocation in the Next Pipeline and Strategic Priorities Changes from CPS or Last COBP 1. Energy (2020 Core Area 1: Infrastructure, Core Area 3: Regional Cooperation and Integration) None Expand electricity production and export and upgrade power-generating units Increased electricity production Baseline: 20.1 TWh (2012) Target: 47.3 TWh (2020) Current value: 21.0 TWh (2013) Increased electricity exports Baseline: 2.69 TWh (2012) Target: TWh (2020) Current value: 2.88 TWh (2013) Electrical power generation Project management support $160 million, 76% of total lending envelope, and additional $140 million cofinancing, of which: ESG 100% RCI 100% 2. Transport (2020 Core Area 1: Infrastructure, Core Area 3: Regional Cooperation and Integration) None Sector outcome and indicators as well as intervention areas specified Develop transport networks integrated with those of the neighboring countries Increased freight traffic Baseline: million tons (2012) Target: million tons (2016) Current value: million tons (2013) Expanded railway network in operation National railways along prominent regional transport corridors, including multimodal Logistics enhancement Sector-wide institutional improvement $50 million, 24% of total lending envelope, and additional $50 million cofinancing, of which: ESG 100% RCI 100% Sector outcome and indicators as well as intervention areas specified Baseline: 3.2 thousand km (2012) Target: 4.0 thousand km (2016) Current value: 3.5 thousand km (2013) ADB = Asian Development Bank, COBP = country operations business plan, CPS = country partnership strategy, ESG = environmentally sustainable growth, km = kilometer, RCI = regional cooperation and integration, TWh = terawatt-hour. Sources: Program for Socioeconomic Development of Turkmenistan, , Turkmenistan Electricity Sector Development Concept, , and ADB estimates.

8 4 Appendix 2 INDICATIVE ASSISTANCE PIPELINE Table A2.1: Lending Products, Project/Program Name Sector Poverty Targeting Strategic Agendas and Drivers of Change Division Year of PPTA/ PDA Total OCR Cost ($ million) ADB ADF Loans Grants Total Gov t Cofinance 2015 Standby AFG-TKM Regional Power Interconnection ENE GI ESG, RCI CWEN TBD Total Standby CAREC Multimodal Transport Corridor Development TRA GI ESG, RCI CWTC TBD 50.0 Total ADB = Asian Development Bank, ADF = Asian Development Fund, AFG = Afghanistan, CAREC = Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, CWEN = Energy Division, CWTC = Transport and Communications Division, ENE = energy, ESG = environmentally sustainable growth, GI = general intervention, Gov t = government, OCR = ordinary capital resources, PPTA = project preparation technical assistance, RCI = regional cooperation and integration, TBD = to be determined, TKM = Turkmenistan. Source: Asian Development Bank.

9 Appendix 2 5 Table A2.2: Nonlending Products and Services, Assistance Name Sector Division Assistance Type ADB Amount Source ($'000) Sources of Funding Others Source Amount ($'000) Total ($'000) 2015 Standby CAREC Multimodal Transport Corridor Development TRA CWTC PPTA TASF Total ADB = Asian Development Bank, CAREC = Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, CWTC = Transport and Communications Division, PPTA = project preparation technical assistance, TASF = Technical Assistance Special Fund, TRA = transport. Source: Asian Development Bank.

10 6 Appendix 3 ASSISTANCE PROGRAM FOR THE CURRENT YEAR Table A3.1: Nonlending Products and Services, 2014 Assistance Type ADB Amount ($'000) Sources of Funding Others Amount ($'000) Assistance Name Sector Division Source Source Firm Turkmenistan: Financial Sector Reforms FIN CWPF PATA TASF Total ADB = Asian Development Bank, CWPF = Public Management, Financial Sector, and Trade Division, FIN = finance, PATA = policy and advisory technical assistance, TASF = Technical Assistance Special Fund. Source: Asian Development Bank. Total ($'000)

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