Tasmania - A Model For the Next 24 Months

Transcription

1 Climate Futures for Tasmania Discussion document: Implications for fire danger in bushfire prone areas of Tasmania May 2010

2 Discussion document White CJ, Fox-Hughes P, Grose MR, Corney S, Bennett JC, Holz GK, Gaynor S and Bindoff NL June 2010 Frequently used acronyms Australian Water Availability Project IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model Global Climate Model Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AWAP AR4 CCAM GCM IPCC Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 2 of 21

3 Table of Contents 1 Introduction Purpose of this document Conditions of release 4 2 Bushfire danger in Tasmania Calculation of fire danger Fire danger in Tasmania Forecasting fire danger Seasonal forecasting 10 3 Future bushfire weather The Climate Futures for Tasmania project Using the climate projections Future projections relevant to bushfire weather 12 4 References 20 Disclaimer and Conditions of Use The Climate Futures for Tasmania project has provided analysed data from climate simulations in the discussion document '' to Sue Stack of the Bushfire CRC at the University of Tasmania. The generation of the climate data was commissioned by the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC) as part of its Climate Futures for Tasmania project. The analysed data provided to the Bushfire CRC is of a preliminary nature. The analysed data has been released early for the purpose of using the modelling outputs for complementary research and student course material. This analysed data is yet to be peer reviewed, confirmed or published, and therefore should not be taken as final. Any copies, reproductions, developments or conclusions based on the Climate Futures for Tasmania modelling outputs and/or analysed data must not be published prior to the Climate Futures for Tasmania Extreme Events Technical Report, which is due for release later in This discussion paper should not be circulated beyond the participants of the Planning and Managing for Climate Change (KGA518) course at the University of Tasmania. The Climate Futures for Tasmania datasets contain climate simulations based on computer modelling. Models involve simplifications of real physical processes. Accordingly, no responsibility will be accepted by the ACE CRC or the Climate Futures for Tasmania project for the accuracy of simulations or projections inferred from the datasets or for any person's interpretations, deductions, conclusions or actions in reliance of the climate simulations. Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 3 of 21

4 1 Introduction 1.1 Purpose of this document This Discussion Document was prepared as supporting documentation for the Natural Disaster Resilience Program (NDRP) application titled Impact of Climate Change on fire risk, natural hazards, and policy responses proposed by the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC). The discussion paper was later supplied to Sue Stack at the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre for use as teaching material for the Planning and Managing for Climate Change course (KGA518). It contains observations from the Bureau of Meteorology and an early release of preliminary projections from the Climate Futures for Tasmania project to provide information on the potential and capacity of the research conclusions for the assessment of bushfire risk in Tasmania. The information provided relates to the current drivers of bushfire weather conditions and the likely impacts of climate change on the occurrence of bushfire weather. This document contains excerpts from the Bureau of Meteorology and three technical reports from the Climate Futures for Tasmania project (Corney et al., 2010; Grose et al., 2010; White et al., 2010), all of which are currently in the scientific peer review process. 1.2 Conditions of release The results from the Climate Futures for Tasmania research contained in this Discussion Document are yet to be published; therefore, circulation of this document is restricted. See disclaimer at front of the document. 2 Bushfire danger in Tasmania 2.1 Calculation of fire danger A number of measures of fire danger have been developed over several decades, in fireprone areas around the world. In much of Australia, and in particular Tasmania, the Mark V McArthur forest fire danger meter (McArthur, 1967; Noble et al., 1980) is used operationally for the prediction of the difficulty of suppression of any fires that are ignited. The meter uses inputs of air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, together with a measure of fuel dryness, to calculate a forest fire danger index, FFDI, value. It is well recognized that the index is limited, but proposed alternatives have not proven popular to date with land and fire managers. Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 4 of 21

5 The fuel dryness is included in FFDI calculation through a drought factor that combines the effects of soil moisture deficit and recent precipitation on fuel moisture. The meter was recently modified to ensure a smooth transition between fuel moisture categories (Griffiths, 1998; 1999). In Tasmania, for many years the Mount Soil Dryness Index (Mount, 1972) has been used as a ground moisture input (or indicator of longer term drying) to modulate the drought factor input to the fire danger index. A number of fire danger rating categories are defined from ranges of FFDI values. Following the Victorian Bushfire Royal Commission Interim Report of 2009, these have been reassigned as: Low-Moderate 0-11, High 12-24, Very High 25-49, Severe 50-74, Extreme and Catastrophic Fire danger in Tasmania High quality datasets of weather parameters have been used in a number of studies to assess the fire danger in Tasmania (e.g. Lucas, 2006; Fox-Hughes, 2008). It is generally recognized that southeast Tasmania, including the Hobart area, is subject to the highest fire danger in the state. Figure 1 shows a contoured map of (approximate) boundaries of fire danger recorded in the last decade in Tasmania. The data is constructed from Automatic Weather Station records and the manual stations of Ross and Melton Mowbray (which record data much less frequently than AWS, but are in otherwise data-sparse areas), using wind speeds averaged over 10 minutes. Southeast Tasmania has been subject to what is currently referred to as Catastrophic fire danger on several occasions in the last ten years, while some other parts of the state, particularly about the north coast and highlands, have never recorded more than Very High fire danger. Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 5 of 21

6 Figure 1. Maximum fire danger recorded from (mostly) Automatic Weather Stations in Tasmania in the last decade. Catastrophic fire danger has occurred on a number of occasions in southeast TAS. In the past, summer and autumn was regarded as the peak fire danger period in Tasmania (Luke and McArthur, 1978). Recently, however, it has become clear that a secondary peak of fire danger has developed in springtime, at least in the southeast and east (Fox-Hughes, 2008). Figure 2 shows the increase over the last several decades in the number of serious springtime fire danger episodes. This change fits within a broader, more gradual, increase in recorded fire danger across all seasons. Hobart: Number of springtime Very High FFDI >=40 events by decade Number of events For restricted 67-76circulation 77-86only Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 6 of 21 Decade

7 Figure 2. Decadal variation in the number of fire danger events where the FFDI at Hobart has reached at least 40. Figure 3, for example, displays the 95 th, 99 th and 99.5 th percentile values of FFDI at Hobart Airport between 1960 and 2006, using all data across all seasons. It is clear that there is an increasing trend, and that the increase is faster at the more extreme end of the data. This is consistent with other research (e.g. Alexander et al., 2007) detailing a more rapid increase in extreme events compared to the average. Hobart Airport Seasonal Percentile FFDI P95 P99 P995 Linear (P995) Linear (P99) Linear (P95) Figure th (blue) 99 th (pink) and 99.5 th (yellow) percentiles of fire danger at Hobart Airport between 1960 and 2006, together with linear regression lines in corresponding colours. 2.3 Forecasting fire danger Bad fire danger days typically occur in southeastern Tasmania when a high pressure system is located in the Tasman Sea, and an approaching cold front or trough of low pressure directs Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 7 of 21

8 a north to northwesterly airstream over the state (Brotak and Reifsnyder, 1977; Marsh, 1987). The airstream originates over inland continental Australia and is usually hot and dry during the warmer months. A foehn effect acts to further warm air as it descends from the Central Highlands of Tasmania into the southeast (Sharples et al., 2010). On a routine basis during the warmer months, forecasters employ a variety of conceptual and numerical weather models to predict fire danger in Tasmania. Numerical weather model data is used directly to assess likely weather, however, fields of fire danger can be created to provide a summary of expected higher fire danger (Finkele et al., 2006). U.S. studies (e.g. Hoadley et al., 2004) and local operational experience have suggested that such techniques can often pick trends and regional variations in fire danger quite well, but often miss peaks and extreme values. Figure 4 provides an example of a forecast successful in representing the area of elevated fire danger, together with the trends during the day, but which under forecast the extreme values recorded on that day. Recent research has suggested useful forecasting tools on days of anticipated fire danger. For example, Mills (2002) examined the structure of cool changes propagating through coastal areas of southeastern Australia, and looked in detail at a Hobart event that had significant aviation, as well as fire weather, consequences (Mills and Pendlebury, 2003). An understanding of the structure of the wind field on days of elevated fire danger is critically important for fire management, and this research allowed forecasters to appreciate the complex interaction between cool changes and the land-sea interface. Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 8 of 21

9 Figure 4. Fourteen hour forecast of fire danger for Tasmania on 12 October 2006 from the Bureau of Meteorology operational mesoscale numerical weather model. The forecast successfully indicated the area of elevated fire danger, but values of fire danger were under forecast. Satellite data has for many years been invaluable in weather forecasting. Increasingly, information from the 6.7μm water vapour band is being used to assess the likelihood of rapid falls in relative humidity (and increases in fire danger) associated with the approach of a cold front (Mills, 2008; Zimet et al., 2007). Dry air from high in the atmosphere can descend under the influence of jet stream circulations to mid- to lower layers where thermal mixing or mountain wave activity can direct it to the surface. A number of extreme Tasmanian fire weather events bear the signature of such a process, including some currently being studied. Figure 5 plots individual weather parameters together with calculated FFDI at Hobart Airport for one such event, while Figure 6 displays a water vapour image from a U.S. GOES satellite earlier in the afternoon. A filament of low moisture air from close to the tropopause (grey shade) crossed Tasmania a short time before the surface weather parameters abruptly changed to cause an upward spike in the fire danger experienced in southeast Tasmania. Hobart Airport Forest Fire Danger 7 November temp dewpt windspeed ffdi :00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 13:30 14:00 15:00 15:30 16:13 16:58 17:52 18:37 19:10 19:43 20:15 20:45 21: Figure 5. Plot of weather and fire danger from Hobart Airport 7 November Note the spike in fire danger as dewpoint temperature (a measure of moisture content of the air) drops and wind increases in the early evening. Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 9 of 21

10 Figure 6. Water vapour image from the afternoon of 7 November A dry slot crosses Tasmania shortly ahead of the surface increase in fire danger. 2.4 Seasonal forecasting Forecasting for an approaching fire season currently relies on assessments of likely above or below average precipitation during the fire season. These in turn are predicated on relationships established between, particularly, El Nino-Southern Oscillation trends and those of the Indian Ocean Dipole. There has been some research that directly relates ENSO and IOD trends to interannual variations in Tasmanian fire weather (Williams and Karoly, 1999; Nicholls and Lucas, 2007) but more remains to be done. 3 Future bushfire weather 3.1 The Climate Futures for Tasmania project Climate change is a global phenomenon, however the impacts are not evenly distributed over the globe. Global climate models, due to their coarse resolution, are unable tell us much about the local impacts of climate change. Dynamical downscaling of global climate models is a way of providing detailed information of the local variations and impacts of projected changes. The Climate Futures for Tasmania project uses CSIRO s Conformal Cubic Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 10 of 21

11 Atmospheric Model (CCAM) to dynamically downscale IPCC global climate model outputs to produce fine-scale climate projections for Tasmania to The Climate Futures for Tasmania presents a set of six model simulations dynamically downscaled for Tasmania under two IPCC emission scenarios: one high (A2) and one low (B1). A single model simulation gives a single projection of a climate scenario, analogous to a single iteration of an experiment. More model simulations give further realisations of that experiment and this helps to give an estimate of the range of possible outcomes for a given emission scenario and to quantify the spread of the projected climate. For this reason, the project has undertaken the maximum number of model simulations that computation time allowed: the downscaling of six Global Climate Models (CSIRO-Mk3.5, GFDL-CM2.0, GFDL- CM2.1, MPI/ECHAM5, UKMO-HadCM3 and MIROC3.2(medres)) for both the A2 and B1 scenarios. These six simulations were chosen for their performance in simulating the Australian region (see Corney et al. (2010) for more detail). The benefit of multi-model ensemble simulations is that they generally provide more robust information than simulations from any single model (IPCC, 2007). Since the main focus in this special synopsis is the change to the mean state of the general climate, the focus will be on the ensemble of these models rather than any one particular simulation. Climate Futures for Tasmania is a jointly funded, collaborative research project that has generated improved climate change information for Tasmania out to It is a project of the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), supported by funds from the Tasmanian State Government, the Federal Government and Hydro Tasmania, and in-kind research from CSIRO Division of Marine and Atmospheric Research; Hydro Tasmania; Department of Primary Industries, Parks Water and the Environment (Tasmanian Government); University of Tasmania, through the Tasmanian Partnership for Advanced Computing (TPAC) and the Tasmanian Institute of Agricultural Research (TIAR); Geoscience Australia; and the Bureau of Meteorology. 3.2 Using the climate projections Tasmania is unusual in its global perspective with regard to climate change. It lies on the border between two regions: one region to the north where most global climate models show a drying trend and one region to the south where most show a wetting trend. These factors make Tasmania a difficult region to project climate change using just global climate models. Furthermore, Tasmania s topography is highly variable, resulting in a spatially varied climate across the island, ranging from an annual precipitation of 500 mm on the drier east coast to more than 3000 mm on the mountainous west coast. This level of spatial variability cannot be simulated in global climate models. The dynamical downscaling of global climate models for Tasmania is a way of incorporating the uniqueness of Tasmania s complex topography and maritime influenced climate to provide a clearer picture of regional variations and impacts of projected climate change. Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 11 of 21

12 However, the models are not perfect. They do not, and cannot, simulate every aspect of the climate of Tasmania. However, climate models can reproduce the central aspects of the patterns of variability and the weather system that describes the overall climate and as such, they are our best tool for assessing potential changes in the future climate. The downscaled models have demonstrated a high level of skill in reproducing the recent climate of Tasmania across a range of climate variables. This gives us confidence that the models are able to provide realistic projections of the Tasmanian climate out to Future projections relevant to bushfire weather Through the Climate Futures for Tasmania project, numerous analyses have been undertaken that assess the likely future changes to several climate variables that are relevant to the calculation of bushfire weather. These include temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, pressure, precipitation and soil moisture. Although a direct calculation of future bushfire risk has not been undertaken as part of the Climate Futures for Tasmania project (e.g. FFDI), the following preliminary results may be used to infer possible future changes to bushfire risk in Tasmania. What is clear from these results is the requirement for a full bushfire risk analysis in a future changing climate Temperature Under the high IPCC emission scenario (A2), the average temperature change over Tasmania is projected to be 2.9 C over the 21st century. The six models used show a range of temperature rise from 2.6 C to 3.3 C. The projections suggest temperature increases are smaller in the early part of the century, but the rate of change accelerates towards the end of the century (Figure 7). The spatial pattern of temperature rise is quite uniform across Tasmania, with a different pattern emerging in the different seasons (Figure 8). Under the low IPCC emission scenario (B1), the projections for temperature suggest an average rise of 1.6 C. The six models used show a range of temperature rise for the B1 scenario from 1.3 C to 2.0 C. Both the IPCC scenarios give a similar climate response for the first half of the century and the difference between the scenarios becomes noticeable around the middle of the century. After 2070, the spread of the six A2 simulations is higher than the spread of the six B1 simulations (Figure 7). Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 12 of 21

13 Figure 7. Projected mean temperature anomalies to 2100 relative to the baseline. Smoothed time series (11-year running mean) of Tasmanian mean daily mean temperature in model projections under two emission scenarios, A2 (red) and B1 (blue) IPCC SRES (Nakicenovic, 2000) compared with observed temperature for the past century (black line) Bureau of Meteorology high quality temperature dataset (Torok et al., 1996; Della-Martin et al., 2004). Dark lines represent the mean of six models; shading represents the 6-model range (derived from Grose et al., 2010 and White et al., 2010). Figure 8. Projected changes in mean temperature to 2100 (high emission scenario). Projected change in mean temperature for the IPCC high emission scenario (A2) between the periods and , representing the projected change over the 21st century. The plots Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 13 of 21

14 represent the mean of the 6-model projections calculated on an annual basis and for each calendar season (derived from Grose et al., 2010) Precipitation The projection of total annual precipitation over the whole of Tasmania under either emissions scenario shows no significant change. However, there are significant changes in the spatial pattern of precipitation, and in the timing of precipitation. Under the high IPCC emission scenario (A2), the annual average precipitation shows a steadily emerging pattern of increased precipitation over most of the coastal regions, and no change or reduced precipitation over central Tasmania and in some areas of northwest Tasmania (Figure 9). The changes in seasonal precipitation are much stronger than annual total precipitation. The west coast of Tasmania shows a pattern of strong increase in precipitation in winter and a strong decrease in summer precipitation. The central plateau district shows a steady decrease in precipitation in every season, and a narrow strip down the east coast shows a steady increase in autumn and summer precipitation throughout the 21st century. Figure 9. Projected changes in precipitation to 2100 (high emission scenario). Projected proportional (%) change in total precipitation for the IPCC high emission scenario (A2) between the periods and , representing the change over the 21st century. The plots represent the mean of six model projections calculated on an annual basis and for each calendar season (derived from Grose et al., 2010). Preliminary results suggest that climate change will also significantly affect Tasmania through changes to extreme precipitation events. Figure 10 shows projected increases in extreme precipitation events (here represented by the average number of days per annum exceeding Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 14 of 21

15 the baseline 99 th percentile) and increases in the maximum number of consecutive dry days (<1 mm) by the end of the 21 st Century ( ) across many parts of Tasmania. This suggests a combined change where more heavy precipitation events are interspersed with longer, dryer periods which may lead to increased growth in bushfire fuels. This projected change is particularly apparent in the western regions of the state. These projected changes to precipitation are caused by systematic changes to the large-scale climate features within the model simulations. These changes in the climate include a change to the dominant pressure patterns and winds over the region as well as a change to the sea surface temperature in the surrounding seas. Changes to the dominant pressure patterns are associated with a southerly movement and intensification of the subtropical ridge of high pressure, especially in summer, and an increasing prevalence of the high phase of the Southern Annular Mode, resulting in changes to the dominant westerlies winds reaching Tasmania. These changes are likely to enhance the seasonality of west coast precipitation, that is, drier in summer and autumn and wetter in winter and spring. Figure 10. Projected changes in extreme precipitation (high emission scenario A2). Projected proportional (%) change in annual count of days exceeding the th percentile (left panel), and the maximum number of consecutive dry days (<1 mm) per annum (right panel), for relative to The plots represent the mean of the six model projections (derived from White et al., 2010) Relative humidity Annual average relative humidity under the A2 scenario is projected to increase over much of Tasmania by 0.5% to 1.5%, except for the Central Highland region where a slight decrease is Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 15 of 21

16 projected (Figure 11a and 11b). There is a different spatial pattern of change in summer compared to winter (Figure 11d). Figure 11. Projected changes in mean relative humidity, a) time series of 11-year moving average relative humidity over the land surface of Tasmania in the six-model-mean and the range of models (highest and lowest); b) the difference in mean relative humidity between the periods 1 ( ) and 2 ( ); c) mean annual cycle of relative humidity in periods 1 and 2; d) as for b) but for the calendar seasons summer and winter (derived from Grose et al., 2010) Wind speed Change to the average 10-metre wind speed over the land surface of Tasmania under the A2 scenario shows a slight decline (<5%) by the end of the century (Figure 12a). The six-modelmean pattern of change is spatially varied and there are large differences between the spatial patterns of change in the six models (Figure 12c and 12d). A change in seasonality of mean wind speed however is more apparent, with higher speeds in July to October and lower wind speeds in November through to May (Figure 12b). Further in-depth analysis of wind speed, wind gusts and wind hazards is included in the severe wind report as part of the Climate Futures for Tasmania project (Cechet et al., 2010). Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 16 of 21

17 Figure 12. Projected changes in mean 10-metre wind speed, a) 11-year moving average time series of annual 10 m wind speed over the land surface of Tasmania in the six-model-mean and the range of models (highest and lowest); b) mean annual cycle for Tasmania in the periods 1 ( ) and 2 ( ); c) the six-modelmean difference between periods 1 and 2; d), difference between periods 1 and 2 for each downscaled model (same colour scale as for 6.16c) (derived from Grose et al., 2010) Evaporation The projected increase in temperature over the 21st century is the dominant driver of a significant projected increase in potential evaporation across all four seasons. This is likely to decrease water availability. Preliminary analyses indicate that evaporation will generally increase across the state, although these increases are spatially varied. Because different measures of evaporation can differ markedly, future researchers using the modelling outputs and projections may need to derive their own measure of evaporation to best suit their applications Soil moisture and water availability The projected increases in CO 2 concentrations may increase the water use efficiency of vegetation and potentially reduce the demand on soil water reserves. This means that soil water contents may conversely remain higher for longer into periods of low precipitation than Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 17 of 21

18 might be expected as temperatures and evaporation increase. The impact of these changes is as yet not quantified but may actually act to ameliorate bush fire danger ratings in some regions. Biophysical models could be used to provide future projections of soil water contents Synoptic bushfire weather patterns Particular synoptic weather patterns drive conditions of high fire danger. Mills (2005) identifies a specific pattern that has been present in a large proportion of extreme fire events in Tasmania, including the 1983 Ash Wednesday fires. This pattern is a particularly strong and deep cold front that creates unusually hot and strong winds from the mainland of Australia over the state. This pattern can be identified by high temperatures and a strong thermal gradient at the 850 hpa height. This pattern can be identified and characterized in NCEP Reanalysis and in fine scale climate model simulations. A preliminary examination of the Climate Futures for Tasmania downscaled model projections reveals that they simulate the incidence of this synoptic type reasonably closely to NCEP Reanalysis for the recent period. The model simulations also project an increase of the incidence of this driver over the 21st Century (Figure 13), with a large range indicated by the six different models examined. The model mean is considered the best estimate for examining this change, and shows a 17% increase by the middle of the century, and a 50% increase in incidence by the end of the century for a high emission scenario (A2) of climate change. Figure 13. Model mean number of extreme fire weather events in three periods (past period and two future) modelled from six GCMs downscaled through CCAM (preliminary results). Grey lined signifies range of the models for each period. Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 18 of 21

19 3.4 Research directions Fire danger is sensitively dependent on a number of related parameters. The projections developed in the Climate Futures for Tasmania modelling hint at changes in the mean values of these parameters that will impact on fire danger. In addition, the modelling has suggested an increase in the frequency of synoptic patterns conducive to dangerous fire weather events. The results to date indicate a need for further research, to more clearly identify trends in fire danger and the broader area of bushfire risk. A project proposal has been developed to extend the work of the Climate Futures for Tasmania team with a goal of examining in detail projections of factors likely to impact on the occurrence of bushfires. Indices of fire danger will be examined, as will changes in the frequency of synoptic weather conditions conducive to the spread of bushfires. Other factors likely to affect bushfire activity and risk of ignition will also be studied, including frequency of lightning risk levels and projections of change in fuel load across the Tasmanian landscape. Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 19 of 21

20 4 References Alexander, L.V., Hope, P., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Lynch, A. and Nicholls, N Trends in Australia s climate means and extremes: a global context. Aust. Met. Mag., 56, Bennett JC, Ling FLN, Graham B, Corney SP, Holz GK, Grose MR, White CJ, Gaynor SM & Bindoff NL, 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania: water and catchments, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart (in press, due October 2010). Brotak, E.A. and Reifsnyder,W.E An investigation of the synoptic situations associated with major wildland fires. Jnl appl. Met., 16, Cechet RP, White CJ, Bennett JC, Corney SP, Holz GK, Grose MR, Gaynor SM & Bindoff NL, 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania: extreme wind events, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart (in press, due June 2010). Corney SP, Katzfey JF, McGregor JL, Grose MR, Bennett JC, White CJ, Holz GK, Gaynor SM & Bindoff NL, 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania: modelling, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart (in press, due July 2010). CSIRO & BoM 2007 Climate change in Australia: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Technical Report: 140 pp. Della-Marta PM, Collins DA and Braganza K Updating Australia's high-quality annual temperature dataset. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 53, Finkele, K., Mills, G.A., Beard, G. and Jones, D.A National daily gridded soil moisture deficit and drough factors for use in prediction of Forest Fire Danger Index in Australia. BMRC Research Report No Bur. Met., Australia. Fox-Hughes, P A fire danger climatology for Tasmania. Aust. Met. Mag., 57, Griffiths, D Improved formulae for the McArthur forest fire meter. Met. Note 214, Bur. Met., Australia. Griffiths, D Improved formulae for the drought factor in McArthur s Forest Fire Danger Meter. Aust. Forestry, 62, Grose MR, Barnes-Keoghan I, Corney SP, White CJ, Holz GK, Bennett JC, Gaynor SM & Bindoff NL, 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania: general climate, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart (in press, July May 2010). Hoadley, J.L., Westrick, K., Ferguson, S.A., Goodrick, S.L., Bradshaw, L. and Werth, P The effect of model resolution in predicting meteorological parameters used in fire danger rating. J. Appl. Met., 43, Holz GK, McNeil DL, Mohammad C, Grose MR, Corney SP, White CJ, Bennett JC, Gaynor SM & Bindoff NL, 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania: agricultural impacts, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart (in press, due July IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis Working Group 1 Contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, Cambridge University Press. Jones DA, Wang W and Fawcett R 2009 'High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia.' Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 58: Lucas, C An Australian fire weather dataset: Bushfire CRC Poster. Luke, R.H. and McArthur, A.G Bushfires in Australia. Australian Government Publishing Service. Canberra, Australia, p. 15. Marsh, L Fire weather forecasting in Tasmania. Met. Note 171. Bur. Met., Australia. McArthur, A.G Fire behaviour in eucalypt forests. Forestry and Timber Bureau Leaflet, 107, 25 pp. Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 20 of 21

21 McIntosh PC, Pook MJ & McGregor J 2005 Study of future and current climate: a scenario for the Tasmanian region (stages 2 & 3) (CSIRO), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, Tasmania. Mills, G.A A case of coastal interaction with a cool change. Aust. Met. Mag., 51, Mills, G.A. and Pendlebury, S Processes leading to a severe wind-shear incident at Hobart Airport. Aust. Met. Mag., 52, Mills, G.A A re-examination of the synoptic and mesoscale meteorology of Ash Wednesday Australian Meteorology Magazine, 54, pp Mills, G.A Abrupt surface drying and fire weather Part 2: A preliminary synoptic climatology in the forested areas of southern Australia. Aust. Met. Mag., 57, Mount, A.B The derivation and testing of a soil dryness index using run-off data. Bulletin No. 4, Forestry Commission, Tasmania. Nakicenovic N, & Swart R 2000 Special Report on Emission Scenarios a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, Cambridge University Press. Nicholls, N. and Lucas, C Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires: relationships with climate and predictability. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 16, Noble, I.R., Bary, G.A.V. and Gill, A.M McArthur s fire-danger meters expressed as equations. Aust. J. Ecol., 5, Raupach MR, PR Briggs, V Haverd, EA King, M Paget and CM Trudinger Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP), final report for Phase 3. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research component. Canberra, Australia, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research: 67 pp. Sharples, J.J., Mills, G.A., McRae, R.H.D. and Weber, R.O Foehn-like winds and elevated fire danger in southeastern Australia. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. DOI: /2010JAMC2219.1, accepted for publication. Torok SJ and Nicholls N A historical annual temperature dataset for Australia. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 45, White CJ, McInnes KL, Cechet RP, Grose MR, Corney SP, Bennett JC, Holz GK, Gaynor SM & Bindoff NL, 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania: extreme events Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart (in press, due October 2010). Williams, A.A.J., and Karoly, D.J. (1999) Extreme fire weather in Australia and the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Aust. Met. Mag., 48, Zimet, T., Martin, J.E. and Potter, B.E The influence of an upper-level frontal zone on the Mack Lake wildfire environment. Met. Appl., 14, Compiled by Climate Futures for Tasmania Page 21 of 21