Methodology for Determining E-government Success Factors with Foresight Approach

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1 Interntonl Reserch Journl of Appled nd Bsc Scences 2013 Avlble onlne t ISSN X / Vol 4 (9): Scence Eplorer Publctons Methodology for Determnng E-government Success Fctors wth Foresght Approch Ftemeh Sghf *1 Alrez Al Ahmd 2 1. Assstnt Professor Fculty of New Scences nd Technologes Unversty of Tehrn. Tehrn Irn 2. Assocte Professor Deprtment of Industrl Engneerng Irn Unversty of Scence & Technology. Tehrn Irn Correspondng Author eml: ABSTRACT: The m of ths pper s to determne the pproprte method for dentfyng the success fctors n electronc government. Frst vrous methods for determnng the crtcl success fctors hve been etrcted by revewng the relted ppers n 12 recent yer nd hve been ctegorzed bsed on ther chrcterstcs. Then functonltes nd methods of foresght hve been revewed nd the pproprte methods for dentfyng the crtcl success fctors bsed on obectves n e- government from stkeholder's pont of vews hve been presented. Then wth prmry screenng 6 top methods were selected bsed on ther generl crter. In the second step usng the lterture revew 10 crter were dentfed for rnkng of the methods nd pnel of eperts hs confrmed these crter. Then 6 bove mentoned methods were rnked usng the fuzzy TOPSIS method nd fnlly rodmp for mesurng the crtcl success fctors from foresght pont of vew for dfferent countres hve been proposed. The results show tht the vlue focused thnkng method possesses the frst rnkng. The vlue thnkng method enbles us to dentfy the tngble nd ntngble needs of the stkeholders wth foresght pproch nd ddtonlly provdes cretvty n the gol settng process. On the other hnd provdes us wth mesures nd outcomes for mesurement purposes. Keywords: e-government Foresght Fuzzy Topss Crtcl success fctor. INTRODUCTION The effectveness of e-government strteges depends hevly on the cuse-nd-effect reltonshps mong strtegc obectves bsed on foresght pproch s well s performnce outcomes dentfed by crtcl success fctors tht ndcted durng the obectve determnton proect mplementton nd performnce mesurement processes. The most mportnt functonltes of the foresght nclude cretng novel des prdgms scenros nd technology prortes. Ths lys foundton for vsons tht represent the future strtegc opportuntes nd wth n ccurte plnnng could result n the creton of novel technologes more mrket shre nd even socl trnsformtons. Severl countres such s Bulgr Ind Mlys EU nd OECD hve mplemented the electronc government foresght (Sghf F. Zre B nd et. l. 2009). Ths lso hghlghts the sgnfcnce of the foresght nd rpd chnges nd developments n the electronc government feld. Ths pper focuses on determnng the crtcl success fctors for obtnng the electronc government obectves from stkeholders' pont of vew nd wth emphss on foresght vson. Mny scholrs hve determned the crtcl success fctors n dfferent res by ther methodology. However there sn t ny reference model for determnng CSF nd the topcs re stll under-controversl. In ths pper crtcl success fctors determnton methods hve been revewed. Addtonlly determnng the crtcl fctors hs been conducted wth regrd to the ultmte obectve nd vldty of these obectves hs been consdered regrdng the foresght concept. The pproprte methods for determnng the crtcl success hve been rnked nd fnlly nd rodmp for mesurng the crtcl success fctors from foresght pont of vew for dfferent countres hve been proposed. Problem sttement nd methodology Future technologes nd developments my chnge our world. In the recent yers the concept of foresght hs been ppled n modern felds such s electronc government. Ths mples tht electronc government wll lso chnge lke other res. In n Europen foresght study t's been shown tht the complete lst of the nformton nd communctons technologes wll be ccomplshed up to 2020 n Europe. Then

2 usng the eperts' opnons nd prtcpton of severl countres the ffordble government servces usng these technologes hve been emned. The results of the reserch ndcte tht future technologes mprove the user clrfcton nd ths mkes the clrfcton nd democrcy s requrement (Frssen V. et l. 2007). Therefore governments tht mplement ther strteges nd progrms bsed on the future prdgms nd needs of the electronc government. In order to ccomplsh ths there must be cler defnton of the corporte vson nd vlues wth whch the strtegc nd stkeholder obectves re lgned. Severl studes hve nlyzed success fctors n dfferent res. Nevertheless no study hs dentfed the success fctors of e-government (Crter L nd Belnger F. 2005) tht focuses prtculrly on future vlues of stkeholders. On the other hnd there sn t ny reference method for etrctng the success fctors. So n ths reserch revews ll relted ppers for dentfyng the pproprte method. The purpose of ths pper s to determne the pproprte method for dentfyng the success fctors n electronc government. These fctors must be bsed on the electronc government obectves determned through the foresght concept. The emphss s put on fndng method to defne the obectves nd effectve fctors from dfferent e-government stkeholder's pont of vew. The frmework llustrted n Fgure (1) hs been used to conduct the reserch. Frst etensve studes hve been conducted n the felds of foresght foresght methods electronc government stkeholder nlyss effectve methods for determnng the electronc government obectves usng the lbrry nd nternet references. S methods out of 16 methods hve been chosen nd utlzng the foresght functons focusng on future opportuntes nd electronc government gols 10 crter were determned for selectng the pproprte gols for the future electronc government from stkeholders pont of vew. Then usng fve eperts' opnons nd fuzzy TOPSIS method the best method hs been chosen nd nlyzed. Mult-crter decson-mkng (MCDM) s one of the most mportnt brnches of decson-mkng med t supportng decson mkers who re fced wth mkng numerous nd conflctng evlutons. (Pohekr S.D. nd Rmchndrn M.2004). Snce there re severl methods for determnng the electronc government gols wth futurstc vson thus the best opton must be chosen usng the most pproprte method. Methods such s SAW LINMAP ELECTRE TOPSIS AHP ANP etc hve been ntroduced n mult-crter decsonmkng problem solvng books nd references. Ech method represents ts own dvntges nd dsdvntges nd t cn be sd for sure tht none of them s perfect. Accordngly these methods hve been evluted nd compred gnst ech other bsed on the crter relted to the decson-mkers nlysts (decson-mker knowledge level decson-mkers tendency to communcte wth others ) the problem (number of optons number of crter ) the lgorthm (usge convenence pplcblty for group decsonmkng ) nd the fnl soluton (results consstency confdence of the decson-mker ) (Rolnder N. nd Cec A. nd Berdugo M.2003; Trk A.S. nd Bshr A.K. nd Aln P.1997). Accordng to the comprsons between these methods fuzzy TOPSIS method hs been chosen s the best opton. Foresght nd ntroducng the methods for determnng the futurst electronc government gols Foresght more thn nythng else s polcy mkng tool (Slughter R. 2004). Therefore ths tool cn be used to overcome the chllenges nd problems n dfferent countres. Some of the mor functons nd obectves for the foresght effort re s follows: Networkng nd communctons renforcement: gtherng the crftsmn cdemcs decson-mkers futursts stkeholders nd others engged n the future of the scence technology nd nnovton throughout the process (UNIDO 2005; Loverdge D. 2001; Keenn M. 2003); steerng the dt gtherng process for nformng the decson-mkers nd economc enterprses (Mles I. nd Keenn M. 2000; ); strtegc nlyss of the future scenros for formultng the opportuntes nd genertng the future optons (Georghou L. 2003; Cuhls K. 1997); developng common vson of the future( Voros J. 2003; Loverdge D. 2001; Unted ntons ndustrl development orgnzton 2004); steerng the strtegc nd forwrd thnkng ( Voros J. 2003; Irvne J. nd Mrtn B. 1989; Mles I. nd Keenn M. 2003); dentfyng the future opportuntes nd potentls (Reger G 2001; Unted ntons ndustrl development orgnzton 2004); forecstng the emergence of the novel technologes (Keeney R. L. 1992; Mles I. nd Keenn M. 2003; Voros J. 2003); prortzng technology nd R&D strteges ccordng to the mrket requrements nd orgnztonl cpbltes (possblty nd ttrctveness crter) (Cuhls K. 1997; Loverdge D. 2001); cler nd eplct decsons for ntlzton development or shft of the reserch progrms (Loverdge D. 2001); formultng the opertonl plns (Loverdge D. 2001); coordnton: coordntng the R&D strteges nd progrms (Loverdge D. 2001); consensus on mult-stkeholder decsons: consensus on reserch prortes nd developng common vson (Loverdge D. 2001). Foresght s process from whch the most mportnt outcome s dustng the prortes for scentfc. Determnng the success fctors n ths ere must be bsed on the determned obectves wth futurstc vew. Thus the methods must be chosen tht consder the futurstc gol settng. Usng the foresght process orgnztons or countres cn develop common pont of vew nd consensus. 2653

3 The sgnfcnce ce of ths cooperton n country or orgnzton levels nd lgnment wth ll of the nfluencng gences les wthn common gol. Thus wth proper dentfcton of the cpbltes of ech method they hve to be ppled n proper steps. Vrous methods such s Delph Scenro mkng envronmentl scnnng brnstormng ptent nd regstrton nlyss relevnce tree morphologcl nlyss cross mpct nlyss cycle future eperts pnel wld crds crtcl technology nd technology rod mppng re ncluded n foresght concept (Mles I. nd Keenn M. 2003). Revew results of the pst 12 yers show tht morty of them hve used the lterture revew ntervew or questonnre methods. These three tools re used n some wy n ll of the foresght methods. Therefore these methods re pplcble for determnng the crtcl success fctors. On the other hnd methods such s vlue focused thnkng grounded theory nd envronmentl scnnng re lso pplcble for determnng the electronc government gols. Whle the grounded theory results n developed theory but other methods comple the prctcl results nd the outcome of the method my not be theory. Hence 16 bove mentoned methods hve been selected s the prmry methods nd net the best methods wll be chosen nd rnked bsed on the proper nd sutble crter. Here for the ske of contrcton the fnlly chosen methods re descrbed s follows. 1- Determnng the chrcterstcs of the methods used for dentfyng the crtcl success fctors through the lterture revew n the 12 recent yers 2- Study of the dfferent mult-crter decsonmkng methods nd choosng the conunctve stsfyng method nd fuzzy TOPSIS methods s the best opton!""#$! Determnng foresght crters for evlutng the crtcl success fctor determnton methods thought the lterture revew % & Fgure 1. Reserch Method Methodology nd Frmework Fuzzy set theory ws frst ntroduced by Professor Lotf Zdeh n 1965 (Zdeh L. A. 1965). Ths theory dels wth mprecse nd mbguous modes of sets nd hs been ppled n mny theoretcl nd emprcl

4 felds. Trngulr fuzzy numbers re used more commonly n theoretcl nd emprcl studes becuse of the use smplcty nd convenence(tho Y. nd Chh C.H. 2006). So ths reserch s used of trngulr fuzzy numbers. The mn gol of ths pper s to choose the best opton wth mnmum dfference wth the postve optmum opton nd mmum dfference wth the negtve optmum one. Decson mtr nd crter weghts re the nputs of ths lgorthm. In order to choose the best method for determnng the crtcl success fctors the fuzzy TOPSIS nd group decson-mkng methods hve been used. The systemtcl nd well-developed TOPSIS methods proposed by Chen (Chen C.T. 2000) s very effectve for solvng the group decson-mkng problems n fuzzy envronments. In ths method weghts of the crter nd ech optons vlue re defned nd consdered qulttvely. These lngustc vrbles cn be represented s trngulr fuzzy numbers. Weghts nd mportnce of the crter re determned by drect llocton of the vlues or ndrectly usng the pr wse comprsons (Hsu H.M. Chen C.T. 1994). In ths method decson-mkers re encourged to use the lngustc vrbles (Tble 1) for evlutng the crter nd determnng ther vlues. If we ssume tht group of decson-mkers conssts of K people then weght nd mportnce of ech crteron re clculted s follows: 1 K [ 1 ( ) 2 + ( + ) ( + ) ] K )1( K w 1 [ w 1 ( ) w 2 + ( + ) ( + ) w ] K Where nd k w re the mportnce nd weght proposed by the K th decson-mker. Thus mult-crter k decson-mkng problem cn be formulted s decson-mtr nd weghtng mtr D m1 m2 W [ w w w 1 2 n ] Where nd nd ( w w w ) 1 2 1n 2n mn w represent the lngustc vrbles. These vrbles cn be represented s ( b c ) w fuzzy numbers (Tble 1). 3 In order to compre the crter they re de-scled. Ths results n normlzed fuzzy decson mtr R. If B nd C represent the cost nd proft crter sets respectvely then: [ r ] m n r r c c b c b mn c m c c c f f B; C; B ; C; In order to consder the weghted mportnce of ech crteron normlzed fuzzy weghted decson mtr s constructed s below: V [ v ] where m m n v r (.) w n + In ths method del postve ( A ) nd del negtve ( ) A ( v v v... ) where v ( 111 ) A 1 2 n ( v v v n ) where v ( 000) n A nd del negtve ( ) + Dstnce from del postve ( ) A vlues re defned s below: n A vlues s clculted s below: )2( )3( )4( )5( 2655

5 d d n 1 n 1 d d ( v v ) ( v v ) m m Where d (..) represents the mesurement unt of the dstnce between two fuzzy numbers. Fnlly n ths method vcnty coeffcent s used for rnkng the optons. vcnty coeffcent s clculted for ech opton s follows: d CC m d + d If CC 1 then s the del postve vlue nd f CC 0 then s the del negtve vlue. Therefore the opton wth the most CC vlue s the optmum vlue. A Revew of the methods used for determnng the crtcl success fctors In order to determne the crtcl success fctors for the electronc government effort uthentc ppers nd rtcles n the contet of determnng the crtcl success fctors n dfferent scentfc felds from 1996 to 2009 hve been obtned nd revewed from Scence Drect webste. Then these ppers hve been ctegorzed bsed on the method used for determnng the crtcl success fctors (Tble 1). Ths ctegorzton mples tht most of the ppers hve used ntervew nd questonnre methods. Some of them hve gthered the dt bsed on the lterture revew method nd then hve nlyzed the results usng the methods such s fctor nlyss ISM AHP or reserchers udgment. In these ppers hypothess tests were used for sttstcl nlyss. Some other hs used cse studes nd methods such s nferentl sttstcs descrptve sttstcs or regresson hve been used for result nlyss. In ths reserch snce the under the study socety s Irn nd electronc government hs not yet been mplemented n Irn the cse study method s elmnted from the comprsons. Vlue thnkng nd fctor nlyss methods lso hve prorty over the methods mentoned n n Tble (1) snce the vlue thnkng method s bsed on questonnre nd In-depth ntervew. Thus t ddresses the dscovery nd creton of the optons. Therefore t s superor to the decson-mkng methods wth prmry optons. Addtonlly ths method uses the questonnre nd ntervew methods nd therefore ncludes the strengths of the methods mentoned n n Tble (1). Accordng to the erler eplntons Delph nd Vlue thnkng methods re chosen Tble 1. methods for etrctng the crtcl success fctors by revewng the ppers of the recent 12 yers frequency References Method No Ronteltp A. Trp J.C.M. nd Renes R.J.2007; Poon P. nd Wgner C. 2001; Guynes C.S. nd Vnecek M.T.1996; Brotherton B. nd Shw J.1996 Mendoz L.E.Mrus A. Pérez M. nd Grmán A.C. 2007; DePsqule J.P. nd Geller E.S. 1999; Udo G.J. nd Ehe I.C Lm P-K. nd Chn K-S 2005; J Slmeron J.L. nd Herrero I. 2005; Smbsvn M. ndyun Fe N Shh M.H. nd Sddqu F.A.2006; Green G.J et. l.2006; Lu R-L. nd Lu Y-L.2005; Westerveld E. 2003; Umble E.J. Hft R.R. nd Umble M.M.2003; Veen-Drks P. nd Wn M.2002; Wlson S. nd Probert D.R. 2001; Cooke-Dves T. 2002; Tshler A et.l. 1996; Selm H.M.2007; Sung T-K. nd Gbson D.1998; Dvr D. Ben-Dvdet.l. 2006; Fortune J. nd Whte D. 2006; Benson Soong M.H. et.l. 2001; Nkmp P. nd Ym H ; Chen R.S. nd Hsng C.H. 2007; Dubelr Ch. nd Sohl A.2005 ChowT. nd Co D. 2008; Aksorn T. nd Hdkusumo B.H.W. 2008; Sung T.K. 2006; Kng S.F. nd Burgess T.F.2006; Hong K-K. nd Km Y-G. 2002; Wgemn R.1997; Ng E.W.T. et.l. 2008; Stock G.N. et.l. 2007; Getz D. nd Brown G. 2006; Keeney R. L.1996; Torkzdeh Gh. nd Dhllon G.2002; Chng J.C. Torkzdeh GH. And Dhllon G )6( )7( Intervew (my nclude questonnre) nd content nlyss or hypothess test Lterture revew nd Anlytcl Herrchy Process Cse Study or emprcl studes nd nlyss wth descrptve sttstcs or regresson Lterture Revew nd Fctor Anlyss Vlue Thnkng nd Fctor Anlyss 1 Sun H. nd Wng W.C Delph 6 1 Cherry J. nd Weler E.D Jng R. nd Qu X Lterture Revew nd resercher edgment Lterture Revew nd Interprettve Structurl Model

6 Delph method s one of the most common nd well-known foresght methods. Ths method s used to orgnze the nter-member communcton problems nd lso to provde ntercton between people s ctul opnons. Anonymty of the eperts nd feedbck re two ndspensble elements of the Delph method (Knut B. et. l. 2001; Cuhls K. 2000). Vlue Focused Thnkng n ths method the emphss s to dscover the nture nd presentng the vlues nd determnng network of gols nd obectves. Vlue focused thnkng s pplcble n ll decson-mkng felds. Vlue focused thnkng tres to crete new optons nsted of emnng the estng nd determned ones. The process ncludes ntervews wth stkeholders descrbng ther ponts of vew communctng them comprng them nd ntercton between stkeholders to obtn more consensus nd nterpretng the concepts nd prncples to scentfc nd more understndble lnguge. Net reltonshps between concepts nd gols re determned. Afterwrds optons re developed. Obectves nd the relted metrcs re formulted. Rsk nd unrelblty re lso clculble (Keeney R. L. 1992). Grounded theory the m of the method s to etrct theory from the conducted reserches to trnsform those ponts of vew to the common theores s the socl scences. Ths requres the study nd emnton of the processes nd ther blterl effects. Reserchers use the hstorcl documents ntervews nd observton methods for dt gtherng. Typclly dt re gthered from dfferent unts to study the dfferences nd smlrtes. Dt nlyss s performed n three stges: open codng l codng nd selectve codng. (Struss A. nd Glser B. 1967). Relevnce tree relevnce tree s method for representng the detls of problem nd the reltonshps between these detls under the current nd future stutons. Relevnce tree s dgrm tht hs form of herrchcl structure tht begns wth hgh level of bstrcton nd moves down wth greter degree of detl n the followng levels. In other words t s method for dentfyng the correlton between needs nd gols of the future nd determnng the requred condtons to ccomplsh the gol (Struss A. nd Glser B. 1967; Tdd J.; Bessnt J. nd Pvtt K. 2005). Future wheel Future wheel s method med t orgnzng the des nd questons bout the future nd ctully s form of structured brnstormng. Ths technque hs three phses. Frst brnstormng s performed on the future events nd processes. Then mpcts nd consequences of the predetermned set re dentfed n dfferent felds nd t the end pst mpcts nd consequences tht resulted to the current mpcts re provded (Keeney R. L. 1992; Struss A. nd Glser B. 1967). Brnstormng(mnd mppng) Ths technque cn be used for supportng the producton nd development of new des n group process. The m of ths technque s focusng the thnkng gettng beyond the evdent des nd structurng des. It supports cretve nnovtve nd eplortory thnkng nd cm be used n combnton wth mny foresght methods. Determnng the sutble crter for electronc government gol settng nd mplementng the reserch methodology Due to vrety nd dversty of the methods prmry screenng s performed. In order to do ths conunctve stsfyng method (Asghrpour M.J. 2004) hs been used to reduce the number of the optons. In ths method stndrd level s specfed for ech opton by decson-mker nd ech opton must obtn the mnmum requred score to be ccepted. If n opton does not meet even one of the determned mesures t wll be elmnted. The prmry mesures for screenng were determned through the lterture revew: Possblty to use the method (cost tme requred nformton ) Possblty to nclude dfferent stkeholders' perspectves Consensus Possblty to utlze dfferent epertse Possblty to hold fce-to-fce or remote meetngs Lttle correlton between the results nd the person who mplements the method 2657

7 Accordng to the bove crter s methods (Delph Brnstormng Grounded Theory Future Wheels Vlue Focused Thnkng nd Correlton Tree) were ccepted. In the second phse snce the ssessment crter must ndcte the level of futurstc gols ccomplshment the followng crter hve been determned bsed on the revewed references. In order to determne the crter foresght functons nd the stkeholder nlyss concepts hve been used. Relevnce of the crter hs been determned by n epert pnel. An epert pnel of 10 electronc government nd foresght eperts hve emned nd confrmed these crter (Tble 2). The decson mtr s to formulte the mult-crter decson-mkng problems nd to construct decson mtr nformton such s crter; crter weghts (mportnce) nd reltve rnkng of the crter re requred. So frst the crter weghts mtr nd the optons comprson mtr for lngustc vrbles determned by group of 5 eperts wth more thn 3 yers of eperence n foresght feld nd prtcpton n ntonl proects nd 10 yers of eperence n the nformton technology contet. Then n ntegrted comprson mtr of the trnslton of the lngustc vrbles to fuzzy numbers nd soluton method s clculted. At the end the results of the normlzed comprson mtr nd the weghted comprson mtr s provded. Tble (3) provdes the clculton of the vcnty nd rnkng of the selected optons. Tble 2. Introducng the decson mkng crter s for selectng the pproprte method wth fuzzy TOPSIS Crter REFRENCES (1)Ablty of dt gtherng from stkeholders (2)Ablty to mprove the reltons (3)Fclttng the prtcpton n mult-stkeholder decsons (4)Revelng the hdden gols (5)Ablty of cler ssessment of the gols (6)Ablty to crete nd nnovte the optons (7)Identfyng the future new opportuntes (8)Strtegc thnkng governnce (9)Ablty to determne the herrchy of gols (10)Dstncton between specl obectves for ech stuton nd ech strtegc obectve Ech stkeholder's vlues represent the mportnt nformton tht he/she consders n hs/her decsons. Thus ths nformton must be gthered to provde foundton for udgments of the stkeholders. Communcton wth stkeholders requres some wys for ll people to esly prtcpte n decson-mkng process. Therefore method must be used tht provde common lnguge for gol determnton nd dentfy prortes nd preferences of dfferent groups of people nd fcltte the evluton of the optons for stkeholders. Vrety nd dversty of stkeholders' needs tht re clssfed n brgnng or negotton groups requre ntercton mong ll stkeholders. Therefore the chosen method must enble us to stsfy ll stkeholders bsed on ther nfluence on the electronc government. Sometmes people represent ther gols wth mbguty. If the reson of the mbguty s emned t s shown tht these gols re hdden n the bck of ther mnd. In ths cse they hghlght some ponts tht re not mportnt to them but re not ble to elmnte them. The chosen method must be ble to revel these hdden gols. One of the mor phses of decson-mkng n gol determnton depends on the quntfcton of the personl vlue udgments n order to evlute the relted gol. If gols re ncomplete nd mbguous then the nformton used for the evluton wll be useless. If vlue udgments re not bsed on the logc nd resonng the generted nsghts wll not be logc. In order to hve futurstc pont of vew t s not suffcent to only consder the current needs but future needs nd gols of the stkeholders must lso be consdered. Thus cretng futurstc gols s more mportnt thn evlutng the estng optons. Often decson-mkng methodologes neglect the necessty of cretvty n gol determnton. When the thnkng process s restrcted to the estng optons there s no cretvty n developng the optons. The chosen method must be ble to dentfy the future opportuntes of the electronc government. Snce the strtegc obectves do not chnge n short tme method must be used to determne the gols tht re cpble of forecstng the longterm gols. Plenty of electronc government gols re nterrelted. The chosen method must be ble to determne herrchy of gols nd to revel the reltonshps between dfferent decsons nd show the effects nd nterctons between them. Strtegc obectves form the prncpl foundton of humn vlues but n order to ccomplsh these obectves there re short-term gols. The mentoned model must be ble to mke dstncton between short-term nd long-term gols. Gorg L. nd Huptmn A.(2007); Jons D. K. (2000); Dmvkerk T. (2006); Jnssen M. et. l.(2007); Mllrd et l.(2006); Frssen V. et. l. (2007) Gorg L. nd Huptmn A.(2007); Jons D. K. (2000); Mllrd et l. (2006); Frssen V. et. l. (2007) Gorg L. nd Huptmn A.(2007);Jons D. K. (2000);Mllrd et l.(2006);frssen V. et. l. (2007) Eurgelmn J.C.et l.(2004);mllrd et l.(2006) Burgelmn J. C. Pscu C. nd Compn R.(2004);Jnssen M. et. l.(2007) Eurgelmn J.C.et l.(2004);rdosevc S.(2007);Jnssen M. et. l.(2007) Eurgelmn J.C.et l.(2004); Gorg L. nd Huptmn A.(2007); Rdosevc S.(2007); Dmvkerk T. (2006); Jnssen M. et. l.(2007); Frssen V. et. l. (2007) Rdosevc S.(2007); Dmvkerk T. (2006); Jnssen M. et. l.(2007) Dmvkerk T. (2006); Frssen V. et. l. (2007) Dmvkerk T. (2006); Jnssen M. et. l.(2007); Mllrd et l. (2006); Frssen V. et. l. (2007) Anlyss of the fndngs It s obvous tht n the prevous secton Delph future wheel brnstormng vlue focused thnkng; grounded theory nd correlton tree hve been evluted regrdng the crter such s blty of stkeholders' 2658

8 opnon gtherng blty to revel hdden gols gols herrchy by group of 5 foresght eperts. Due to the mbguty of scores the trngulr fuzzy numbers were used for the survey nd the results of the technology foresght methods were prortzed by fuzzy TOPSIS method. In ths rnkng the vlue focused thnkng method ws the frst rnked method nd correlton tree nd future wheel were respectvely net. Therefore vlue focused thnkng s the most sutble method for determnng the gols. Lterture revew nd efforts mde n ths contet lso confrm ths snce plenty of ppers nd rtcles emphsze on the pplcton of ths method for gol determnton. For emple Keeney (Keeney R. L.1999) nd Ddshzdeh (Torkzdeh G. & Dhllon G. 2002) ppled ths method for to determne the electronc commerce gols. Yoo et l (2001) used ths method for determnng the frequency rnge gols n Kore (Yoo S. Km J. nd Km T. 2001). Flng et l (2007) used ths method to ntegrte the locl knowledge nd scence to determne the envronmentl rsks (Flng L. Gregory R. nd Hrstone M. 2007). Drevn et l. used ths method to determne the nformton nd communcton technology securty gols (Drevn L. Kruger H.A. nd Steyn T. 2007). Vlue focused thnkng s cretve method tht bulds n pproprte reltonshp between stkeholders nd bsed on ther opnons delnetes ther subectvty ptterns. One of the most mportnt dvntges of ths method s tht gol determnton s not dependnt on the epertse nd educton of the stkeholders nd fclttes ther prtcpton n gols determnton process. Ths results n more de echnge nd creton whch n turn my revel more opportuntes. Vlue focused thnkng mkes dstncton between long-term nd short-term gols nd s cpble to drw long-term gols herrchy. Short-term gols re determned wth the d of eperts. Drwng gols network enbles us to document wht s on the mnds of the stkeholders nd fcltte the focused nd strtegc thnkng. Therefore ths method s recommended for determnng the electronc government gols. Wth respect to the results mentoned bove rodmp s requred for determnng the crtcl success fctors n electronc government wth foresght perspectve. Two mportnt contets hdden n electronc government term.e. government nd electronc my chnge wth the development of the technology nd tme. For sure recognzng the future of the electronc government nd ncluson of t n the electronc government mplementton rodmp my ncrese the effectveness of the performnce nd cost reducton. On the other hnd consderng the stkeholders' opnons nd obtnng ther stsfcton results n the success of the plnnng. Thus followng steps hve been proposed for determnng the crtcl success fctors n the electronc government wth foresght perspectve: Step 1- Study of the world's electronc government future: here two ctvtes re conducted: Frstly foresght studes n other countres re revewed to vod reworks n ths feld nd eperences close to country's stuton nd condton re chosen. Snce the m of ths pper s to determne the crtcl success fctors n electronc government wth foresght perspectve then nd mplementton of the foresght method s not the m of ths pper. Implementton of the foresght process requres more tme nd money. There re severl models for the mplementton of the foresght n electronc government contet (Sghf F. Zre B nd et. l. 2009). Trends of the future world re revewed nd nlyzed nd ther mpct on the future of the electronc government wll be studed. For ths purpose the mutul effects nlyss methodology cn be used (Sghf F. Alhmd A. nd Azdn M. 2009). Usng the bove results strteges of the future electronc government n country nd wth the prtcpton nd consensus of ll stkeholders re formulted. Tble 3. The vcnty nd rnkng of the selected optons Methodology Vcnty coeffcent rnk Delph Brnstormng Grounded Theory Future Wheels VFT Correlton Tree Step 2- determnng the short-term nd long-term electronc government gols bsed on the future strteges of the electronc government: here three ctvtes re performed: Frst the short-term nd long-term gols of the electronc government tht re bsed on the resulted strteges from the prevous phse re evluted from dfferent stkeholders' ponts of vew nd re determned bsed on consensus. For ths purpose vlue focused thnkng method s sutble. In the net step crtcl success fctors of the electronc government re determned bsed on the dentfed gols. In the net step sttus of the country s mesured nd controlled usng these metrcs. If the results re not stsfctory progrms nd even strteges must be revewed. 2659

9 ' & & ( ' ' & Revew of the strteges nd progrms Fgure 2. A rodmp for determnng the electronc government crtcl success fctors wth foresght perspectve CONCLUSION Governments ll round the world hve mplemented the e-government for dfferent purposes. One of the most mportnt ssues for the success of these proects s the tendency of them to utlze the e-government. e Ths depends on the level of motvton nd vlue of the new system compred to the estng system. Thus determnng the e-government mplementton gols s of gret mportnce from stkeholders' pont of vew. Wth respect to technology developments these gols hve to be futurstc. There re severl methods for determnng stkeholders' gols. In ths pper by revewng the references nd skng eperts' opnon Delph future wheel brnstormng nd vlue focused thnkng grounded theory nd relevnce tree methods hve been ssessed usng 10 pproprte mesures such s blty of opnon gtherng blty of revelng the hdden gols gols herrchy. In order to cpture eperts' opnon nd determnng ech methods' score nd ultmtely rnkng the foresght methods t ws necessry to sk eperts opnon nd bsed on the cptures opnons ons these foresght methods hve been rnked. Due to mprecse nd mbguous scores trngulr fuzzy numbers hve been used for the survey nd fnl rnkng of the technology foresght methods s done usng fuzzy TOPSIS method. In ths rnkng vlue focused thnkng method rnks the frst nd relevnce tree nd future wheel re respectvely the net methods. Therefore vlue focused thnkng method s the proper method for determnng the gols nd consequently the crtcl success fctors. Some of the results of ths pper re: Clssfyng the methods for determnng the crtcl success fctors by revewng the ppers of the recent 12 yers. Determnng the proper crter bsed on the lterture revew for determnng the sutble methods for dentfyng the crtcl success fctors. Rnkng the gol nd crtcl success fctors determnton methods wth futurstc perspectve. Proposng rodmp for countres to determne the electronc government success fctors from foresght pont of vew. For the future reserches t s recommended to emne other reserch methods nd use groups wth greter number of eperts. Addtonlly t s possble to etend the foresght methods by combnng nd ntegrtng severl methods for the future works. REFRENCES Aksorn T Hdkusumo BHW Crtcl success fctors nfluencng sfety progrm performnce n Th constructon proects Sfety ScenceVol. 46 pp Asghrpour MJ Multple Crter Decson Mkng Tehrn Unversty PublctonTehrn Irn. Benson Soong MH Chn HC ChuV Loh KF Crtcl success fctors for on-lne course resources Computers & Educton Vol. 36 pp

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11 Mllrd et l Towrds the E-government vson for the EU n 2010: Reserch Polcy Chllenges IPTS Fnl Drft Verson August. Ng EWT Lw CCH Wt FKT Emnng the crtcl success fctors n the dopton of enterprse resource plnnng Computers n Industry Vol.59 pp Nkmp P Ym H Crtcl success fctors for offshore rports comprtve evluton Journl of Ar Trnsport Mngement Vol. 7pp Podnr K Jncc s Z Towrds Ctegorzton of Stkeholder Groups Journl of Mrketng Communcton Vol. 12 No. 4 pp.297 Pohekr SD Rmchndrn M Applcton of mult-crter decson mkng to sustnble energy plnnng- A revew Renewble nd sustnble Energy Revews Vol. 8 pp Poon P Wgner C Crtcl success fctors revsted: success nd flure cses of nformton systems for senor eecutves Decson Support Systems Vol. 30 pp Rdosevc S Foresght s SndT nd nnovton polcy tool:polcy lesson from Bulgrn Czech nd Hungrn foresght eercsec School of Slvonc nd Est Europen Studes Reger G Technology Foresght n Compnes: From n Indctor to Network nd Process Perspectve; Technology Anlyss & Strtegc Mngement Vol. 13 No. 4 pp Rolnder N Cec A Berdugo M A frmework for MCDM method selecton Georg Insttute of Technology. Ronteltp A Trp JCM Renes RJ Epert vews on crtcl success nd flure fctors for Nutrgenomcs Trends n Food Scence & Technology Vol. 18 pp Sghf F Alhmd A Azdn M Trend Mutul Effects Anlyss Methodology for Strtegy Confgurton nd Foresght World Appled Scences Journl Vol. 6 No.9 pp Sghf Zre B Alhmd A Fthn M E-Government Foresght n Developng Countres World Appled Scences Journl Vol. 6 No.9 pp Slmeron JL Herrero I An AHP-bsed methodology to rnk crtcl success fctors of eecutve nformton systems Computer Stndrds nd Interfces Vol. 28 pp Smbsvn M Yun Fe N Evluton of crtcl success fctors ofmplementton of ISO 14001usng nlytc herrchy process (AHP): cse study from Mlys Journl of Clener Producton Vol. pp see n scencedrect web ste. Schlosssten D Prk B "comprng recent technology foresght studes n Kore nd chn: towrds foresght-mnded governments?" emerld publshng group lmted vol. 8 nom. 6 pp Selm HM Crtcl success fctors for e-lernng cceptnce: Confrmtory fctor models Computers & Educton Vol.49 pp Shh MH Sddqu FA Orgnztonl crtcl success fctors n dopton of e-bnkng t the Woolwch bnk Interntonl Journl of Informton MngementVol. 26 pp Slughter R Rod testng new model t the Austrln Foresght Insttute Futures Vol. 36 N. 8 pp. -. Stock GN McFdden KL Gowen CR Orgnztonl culture crtcl success fctorsnd the reducton of hosptl errors Int. J. Producton EconomcsVol. 106 pp Struss A Glser B The Dscovery of Grounded Theory: Strteges for Qulttve Reserch Chcgo :Aldne. Sun H Wng WC Crtcl success fctors for new product development n the Hong Kong toy ndustry Technovton Vol. 25pp Sung TK Gbson D Crtcl Success Fctors for Busness Reengneerng nd Corporte Performnce: The Cse of Koren Corportons Technologcl Forecstng nd Socl Chnge Vol. 58 pp Sung TK E-commerce crtcl success fctors: Est vs. West Technologcl Forecstng & Socl Chnge Vol. 73 pp Tho Y Chh CH Multple ttrbute decson-mkng methods for the dynmc opertor llocton problem Robotcs nd Computer-Integrted Mnufcturng. Trk AS Bshr AK Aln P Model choce n mult crter d Europen Journl of Opertonl Reserch Vol. 97 pp Tdd J Bessnt J Pvtt K " Mngng Innovton: Integrtng technologcl mrket nd orgnztonl chnge nd Tools" vlble on: Tshler A Dvr D Shenhr A Lpovetsky S Identfyng Crtcl Success Fctors n defense development proects: A Multvrte Anlyss Technologcl Forecstng nd Socl Chnge Februry pp Torkzdeh G Dhllon G Mesurng fctors tht nfluence the success of Internet commerce. Informton Systems Reserch Vol.13 No.2 pp Udo GJ Ehe IC Crtcl Success Fctors for Advnced Mnufcturng Systems Computers Ind. Eng. Vol. 31 No. 12 pp Umble EJ Hft RR Umble MM Enterprse resource plnnng: Implementton procedures nd crtcl success fctors Europen Journl of Opertonl Reserch Vol. 146 pp UNIDO UNIDO Technology Foresght Mnul: Orgnzton nd Methods Volume1Venn Avlble t: Unted Ntons Industrl Development Orgnzton Foresght methodologes UNIDO prnted n Austrl Vol. 03 pp Veen-Drks P Wn M Strtegc Control: Meshng Crtcl Success Fctors wth the blnced scorecrd Long Rnge Plnnng Vol.35pp Voros J A generc foresght process frmework ForesghtVol.5 No.3 pp10-21 Wgemn R Crtcl Success Fctors for Cretng Superb Self-Mngng Tems Orgnztonl Dynmcs Summer pp Westerveld E The Proect Ecellence Model: lnkng success crter nd crtcl success fctors Interntonl Journl of Proect Mngement Vol. 21pp Wlknson R Crtcl Success Fctors & Eperences of n NGO Decentrlzed Rurl Electrfcton July/August Wlson S Probert DR Innovton Processes wthn the Helthcre Industry: Determnng Crtcl Success Fctors Algned to Product Strteges Mngement of Engneerng nd Technology Vol. 1 on pge(s): 392. Yoo S Km J Km T Vlue-focused thnkng bout strtegc mngement of rdo spectrum for moble communctons n Kore Telecommunctons Polcy Vol pp Zdeh LA Fuzzy Sets Informton nd Control Vol. 8 pp

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